Trade Forex with an 91% Win Rate - No Indicators Needed!

[@adinan1000]

Hi Ali, Doesn't this strategy have a stop? Why are some assets only good for selling and others for buying? Is there a reason? Thank you.

[@StatOasis]

The stop is 10 days. Every market has an edge that make it work better on the long ir short side, the edge is driven by fundamentals.

[@freenrg888]

@@StatOasis Interesting, but that's not a real SL. It's not inconceivable that a market could lose 20% of its value within 10 days. I think the risk we are accepting is quite high.

[@fxdwg68]

Can be used as a good entry signal but needs to be developed with risk and money management

[@StatOasis]

Of course, the video is just to illustrate the concept

[@visla84]

Ok. This pattern is terrible. Any pattern with no stop and small PT will have high win rate and be a loser in the long run with negative expectancy

[@StatOasis]

I believe there may be some misunderstandings regarding your interpretation of a pattern. it’s important to clarify that profit targets (PT) and stop losses (SL) are not inherent to any pattern-they are elements of a trading strategy. In this case, the strategy uses a fixed-time exit when a trade doesn’t close with a profit. FYI first profitable close is not a small PT as you stated, depending on the price movement this can and does generate a healthy average trade on its own, the fixed time exit is there to get rid of the bias you mentioned. This is precisely why it’s crucial to trade a portfolio of uncorrelated strategies, as this approach allows you to accumulate profits while mitigating the impact of drawdowns. I would like to remind you that I mentioned in the video this isn't the optimal pattern, and this was intentional to demonstrate how easily a strategy can be constructed without indicators that trade on multiple instruments. The simplicity of the pattern was the focus, not its effectiveness as a standalone approach. The pattern can be easily tested, and its code can be implemented on any platform. More details are available in this week's AlgoTrader newsletter go.statoasis.com/algotrader if you are interested.

[@jash9897]

Thanks Ali! What software is that one? Also, do you share the code to those algos in your masterclass?

[@StatOasis]

Its multicharts Current Masterclass use SQX Next one will be dedicated to MC

[@ericwilber1228]

Will investigate deeper in this pattern in SQX. Thanks for sharing!

[@StatOasis]

Glad it was helpful!

[@RichWayGlobal]

Hi, what timeframe are you using for entry and to see your 10bars to close?

[@StatOasis]

Daily bars

[@VitorLivingstone]

What was the initial size of the simulated account and what were the sizes of the trades opened? Thank you.

[@StatOasis]

The strategy is trading a single contract, same for portfolio, trading single contract per strategy

[@VitorLivingstone]

@@StatOasis and what were the initial balances for both the single and portfolio tests? Thanks, again.

[@StatOasis]

I think you are focusing on the wrong mark. initial capital will play no role on the numbers, because all strategies trading a fixed 1 contract per trade, and the average trade and drawdown are in dollars, so if you start with a million or 1000 it will still be the same numbers and same win%

[@GianniPellizzaro-gw6oi]

It seems that the logic applied to the graph is the opposite of the logic explained at the beginning of the video.

[@StatOasis]

the graph at 0:52 is for long, you can check the trade at 2:55 that shows trades on chart, also all graphs and code were included in this week AlgoTrader newsletter

[@javadnasiri8415]

How can i specify in the algo wizard that when the close is above or below the level of the entry point, exit the position.I mean, how can the entry point be the basis for the exit

[@StatOasis]

you need to use variables

[@antoniorosado]

00:03 Trading successfully without indicators using a simple pattern 01:27 Trading strategy based on price patterns for high win rate 02:50 Trading Forex using patterns and strategy 04:18 High win rates observed on short side trading in various Forex pairs 05:50 Trading Forex with a high win rate without indicators 07:20 Achieve an 88.5% win rate with $150 average profit 08:47 Diversified strategies reduce capital requirement 10:09 Utilize monthly chart with 10-bar and 50-bar moving averages for right side entry and exit signals

[@iameladlevi]

Hi Ali! What about the DD with such strategies? Exit only x bar might be painful sometimes.. Also, don’t think this might work on the ES / Gold or others ?

[@StatOasis]

Of course the pattern can work on other markets, testing is the only way to find out

[@dixther]

Amazing content! And 1M views in KZbin congrats 🎉

[@StatOasis]

Thank you for watching 🙏

[@MertAslaner-fo3pe]

What is the name of strategy software you use ?

[@hezekiah8634]

Thanks for this video, will expect nore forex related strategy like this from the channel sir.

[@StatOasis]

Keep watching

[@theworldoftrading4592]

Interesting approach Ali, but although you have a strong win rate, the losers are significantly bigger than the winners and you trade with no stoploss. As a result the net returns aren't so great?

[@StatOasis]

You are right, and usually thats the sacrifice with high win rate. But these are all ideas to show whats possible, you either use it as a starting point, or use part of it in other strategies.

[@specialagentslowhand]

Thank you for this and other content you create. I struggle with not knowing why this or any strategy works on some pairs but not others. If I don’t know what market conditions or characteristics prevent it from working on some pairs, then I would have no way of knowing if those conditions become present in the pairs in which it does work. Or, using this example, why is short more profitable? And if we don’t know why, how will we know if it flips and suddenly long is the better way to go?

[@StatOasis]

I call this Market Edge, and I teach it in my course go.statoasis.com/atm each market due to the participants and other fundamentals have a tendency to work well with Long or Short, Mean Reversion or Breakout on short term basis (holding less than a week). Some have a pronounce tendencies and some are neutral. Markets will not suddenly shift from favoring long to short or mean reversion to breakout, it takes a long time to shift as there needs to be a shift in the fundamentals or the participants.

[@georgem1132]

Hi! Interesting strategy... but I'd probably set a sl and tp based on some parameters. Which software did you use for backtesting your strategies?

[@Beltrán02-I]

He used Multicharts

[@georgem1132]

@@Beltrán02-I Thank you!

[@crisroig2001]

What broker do you use and what time frame? I simulated it on my broker, and the results were very poor.

[@StatOasis]

tradestation

[@covingtoncreek]

When you are promoting win rate in this video, the driving force behind such high numbers is simply using *first profitable close*. Honestly, the entry almost doesn't matter. Go short on Friday. Go long on Monday. It doesn't matter. I like your 10 bar stop because with just the first profitable close you will have an amazing high win rate (I have strategies like this) but you will have infrequent huge losses. Of course if your strategy was a stop and reverse that could act like a stop on its own. Finally, your viewers should know that with entries and exits like you are using in this video (entries and exits may occur on the same bar), it's very, very, very important to use look inside bar backtesting, or the equivalent for whatever software you're using. Results will not be accurate otherwise. Your viewers can test this themselves. Try this strategy with and without LIBB and see the dramatic difference. Thanks for the video.

[@StatOasis]

Thank you for your thoughtful feedback. You make a valid point regarding Look Inside Bar (LIB) backtesting; however, it doesn’t apply in this particular strategy, and I'd like to address some of your other observations as well. Market Edge plays a crucial role in pattern-based strategies. For example, in the video, I highlighted the JY Long results, where we used the same pattern and exit strategy, yet the average trade result was negative. This underscores the importance of aligning your strategy's direction with the Market Edge. If you apply the same pattern to ES, you'll notice that almost all patterns work on the long side but not on the short side. So, starting with a strong Market Edge is essential. Regarding LIB, it's necessary when you're uncertain which price will be hit first during the trading bar. In this strategy, however, we know precisely whether our entry price will hit before the close. Since the close is always the last price, we can always determine if the trade is profitable. As a result, running this strategy with or without LIB produces nearly identical results. In fact, I tested this strategy both ways: the @CD Short Avg Trade is $128.2 with a 91.1% win rate, and with LIB, it’s $128.5 with the same win rate of 91.1%. I hope this clarifies things. Thanks again for your input-it's always great to engage in these discussions.

[@covingtoncreek]

@@StatOasis Hello, thanks for the great reply. I'm getting pretty different numbers than you. I had to make some assumptions that I couldn't see in your video. So I tested using TS on @CD daily bars date range 10-25-2011 to present. LIBB enabled 299 trades net prof 15115 long 75% short 79% Non-LIBB 295 trades net profit 18455 long 84% short 87% It looks decent both ways but having look inside bar reveals it's not as pretty a strategy. Even more so if we add in slippage and commissions. But my point is more about using LIBB when you may enter on a stop, or enter/exit on the same bar. I do appreciate your videos! You always stimulate new ideas that I want to test.

[@StatOasis]

subscribe to the AlgoTrader newsletter, you can do so on the home page statoasis.com, the code will be in the next issue, and you can test it yourself

[@binhsir]

@@StatOasis I have subscribed, But in what way would you publish a newsletter? Is it by Email or Blog? And when will it be published?

[@StatOasis]

via email, the AlgoTrader newsletter is weekly. new webpage will explain all that clearly.

[@awtrading]

Nice Video. What would the coding be like in SQX?

[@StatOasis]

in Algo Wizard you set the conditions, and then in the order tab add stop order and delete the market order

[@alastairferris6184]

I am appreciating more currency vids. I am curious on how this would perform on non futures currency pairs. Is the data so much different that this would not work on broker data. Sorry if that does not make sense. It is my understanding that futures data is centralised so in theory more reliable.

[@StatOasis]

you are right futures are regulated and centralised, not like Forex. but you can easily test as the pattern is very easy.

[@joysaha9703]

In which timeframe

[@StatOasis]

Daily bars (24 hours session)

[@sashabanjac3266]

Test everything, and test more. Never take videos at face value, not just here but elsewhere as well. These are ideas to make you think

[@joralfg1]

Gestión?

[@Paper-4you]

Hm ??? Wired !!! Down bar has to be Close down the low…in the Drawing .. and in the Charts the Entries Are Not below or above in you Description!!!! You explain one and dont Trade it on the Charts … hmmm???😮

[@StatOasis]

it looks like you are here for the smart comments. So I will try to return the favor. Maybe you only skimmed the video and didn't watch all of it.... that's why you are confused. That's ok, just check again and you will find that the entry is at the high of previous bar for longs and opposite for shorts... hmmm??😱

[@teebone2157]

Excellent i will try this on futures

[@StatOasis]

Great 👍

[@Africar629]

It does not matter what you use, as long as you make profit. Traders should be careful of these 80%, 90% etc win rates. They are not real.

[@StatOasis]

Good call

[@Patso65]

Nice video. You didn't mention the timeframe of the candle/bar?. Is there an "optimal" timeframe for this pattern? (Daily, 4HR, 1HR, etc).

[@StatOasis]

Always daily, only brokers make money on smaller time frame

[@uiop5898]

Thank you Ali! I don't find the same positive results though.

[@StatOasis]

Are you using tradestation data?

[@uiop5898]

@@StatOasis Yes, I am.

[@StatOasis]

then its your code

[@blodgriskatten]

Me neither, I used Tradingview with CME data.

[@colonMicheal9]

I Hit $38k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject

[@avinashtupe5992]

@@colonMicheal9 👌🏻👌🏻

[@magnuslundin1553]

Sorry to say but it feels to be very sloppy

[@StatOasis]

What do you mean? More details..

[@magnuslundin1553]

Just that your strategy explanation doesn't go hand in hand with the examples shown on your charts

[@StatOasis]

got it, will try to do better on future posts