Stephen Kotkin: Taiwan, geopolitical tension and China’s inevitable rise in indices - 30 April 2021

A presentation on China’s challenges as they seek to become a market economy but with the essence of a socialist system struggling with political, economic, social and cultural rights and interests. With growing internal pressures, what does this mean for China’s neighbours?

[@matthewgillespie2835]

When Stephen speaks, I listen.

[@stephentroup7943]

Me too, but his praise of Biden is so misplaced. Can't decide if someone so smart has a blind spot or just trying to be overly nice. I think the first. But always a lot of gold when Stephen Kotkin speaks.

[@trankt54155]

His credibility is really shot when he failed to give credit to Trump who push funding for vaccines.....One can see he is biased in his assessment in favor of the Democrats. He is not as perceptive in his assessment as George Friedman....

[@christophermcanally1246]

I like hearing from Kotkin, but I would beg to differ about Democracy being fine in the US with corporations buying up influence.

[@theodoremccarthy4438]

There's good evidence that democracy in the west is in a poor state. Public polling data shows a severe decline in public trust in government, with trust from particular political groups fluctuating based on the party in power. This indicates factionalism now shapes the public's view on government, and that groups defeated at the polls do not genuinely accept electoral results. Also a study from a few years ago found a negative correlation between popular support for a policy in western democracies and its likelihood of becoming law. This indicates a fundamental breakdown in democratic processes such that the people are no longer able to manifest their policy preferences through the institutions of government. The same study also showed a positive correlation between public support for a policy and the government adopting that policy in non-western dictatorships; indicating dictatorships outside the west are now doing a better job representing the will of their people than western democracies.

[@trankt54155]

Exactly. I don't know how much the establishment/ruling class pay him but his assessment is off. It is better to listen to George Friedman.....to get a clear picture...

[@dmonarredmonarre3076]

@@theodoremccarthy4438 Sweet Jesus, like a mosquito at a nudist colony, I don't know where to begin. This is ridded with so much verbose nonsense hiding behind the guise of scholarship.

[@robertstan298]

That's what being hopped up on pure liberalism does to one's brain. Sad to see even good historians and analysts struggle to think outside of liberalism's ideological grip.

[@diaryofanaddict9637]

Listening to this man is sobering.

[@yardrail3432]

Doesn't get much better than this. Such an interesting interview and Stephen Kotkin never fails to deliver.

[@michaeldelisieux]

Agree!

[@valentindanila3538]

nice vid. thank you

[@matthewkelly2399]

Read Stephen's books

[@pamcam4385]

Love Stephen Kotkin. ❤️❤️❤️

[@briancase6180]

I'm very concerned about Taiwan. This is a very interesting and informative discussion.

[@tommyodonovan3883]

One of my favorites

[@jamesbrice1961]

It's such a breath of fresh air to listen to the clear, precise reasoning of Professor Kotkin. I would add, that this is in stark contrast to the flounderings from the likes of "Fellows" Rice, Ferguson, Mattison, McMaster, and most infamously, McFail.

[@riverallen1571]

I fucken love Joe Pesci

[@trankt54155]

Have you listened to George Friedman?

[@jps0117]

Yeah, he amuses me.

[@trankt54155]

@UN KNOWN Your gig is up Chinese troll.....Wumao..

[@1schwererziehbar1]

the volume is a little low.

[@NathanWatsonzero]

Yeah sorry about that. I put the volume up as high as i could go i'm afraid. Hopefully you can still enjoy it.

[@GS540]

where is volume 3 Stephen??

[@Dragonfly657]

When Stephen Speaks I Listen😂 He needs to have his own Chanel so he’s easily found.

[@mback3713]

The argument of maintaining status quo around Taiwan is in actuality weakening the USA's message of commitment to representative government and rule of law. China has already pushed beyond the status quo by clamping down on promised 50 yrs of freedom in Hong Kong, by militarizing man made islands in the South China sea, by continually testing Taiwan's ADIZ, and by continually publicly threatening to conquer Taiwan by force. Therefore, the moral high ground is much better supported by the USA recognizing the already obvious truth of Taiwan independence than by supporting an already known broken status quo.

[@Alex-ig2xr]

You should check out Chas Freeman's speech. You will get more information.

[@qingzhou9983]

US recognizes Taiwan will lead to war right away. You need verify this!

[@richardlin4549]

The real fact is that the actual number of recognizing so called Taiwan independence is shrinking towards single digit. US ‘official recognizing of Taiwan’ independence will eliminate all other options but the war in Taiwan island.

[@weewillywonga]

@@richardlin4549 how do you spot a CCP stooge? They call everything “so-called”. So-called Uyghur Genocide, so-called militarised islands, so-called political repression. Just makes you sound ridiculous trying to defend what is plain for everyone to see.

[@ebanfield]

I wish Prof. Kotkin had a better mic.

[@eaj12001]

Dr. Kotkin, was wondering when were you gonna talk about Biden like talked about Trump. But anyway thanks for talking about Taiwan and the issues they are facing with China and a week American leader who doesn't seem to be interested in what happens to Taiwan...

[@Heavy_Distortion]

heavy shit man.

[@ralphmorgan6130]

Would be interesting to see Kotkin v. Zeihan debate regarding how they think China will perform over the next 20-30 years... there are fundamental political and demographic stresses that might be an existential threat to the CCP, and which in turn could drive expansionism and conflict abroad, regardless of how accommodating other countries are to China. The 'rough ride' regarding investing in China in the short to medium term could easily get worse in the longer term, rather than better. Asian growth is more likely to continue in 'young demographics' countries like Indonesia rather than China, which is aging faster than Japan! A nation of retirees is unlikely to be an economic powerhouse. I suppose a lot depends on how effective the sudden switch from CCP 'one child policy' to 'two child policy' and then 'three child policy' is to combat the projected population aging and decline in absolute numbers in the latter half of this century.

[@stephenyang2844]

Xi had written into the CCP's charter the goal of unification of Taiwan into China, it's a matter of time when CCP feels confident enough to achieve it despite the risk of US' intervention.

[@PavelZaitsev]

Destruction of Beijing will be imminent then.

[@Narukosaki]

China's demographic challenges are going to prevent unification more over Taiwan democracy is incompatible with the CCP economic modalities. If you unification of these two systems possible you would be insane. Either one system or the other will have to give the frankly if you want to ask my honest opinion China is going to have to worry about keeping its own country together as we progress further into this decade. An impending economic collapse is over the horizon as the world transitions from a world of more population into a world of less population.

[@qingzhou9983]

@@Narukosaki 1) You should study One Country Two Systems in Macau. It is now richer than Hong Kong. 2) people has been predicting China Collapse for decades now. You are just one of them.

[@cryan9376]

@@qingzhou9983 That is just a ridiculous comparison. You want to compare a population of 7.5m against 650k. Due to gamboling monopoly Macau has explains all you need to know why it is this way. As well most of Macau's labor is imported or the labors are from mainland china so their salaries are excluded from this comparison as they aren't technically citizens of the town, otherwise the numbers would go way down.

[@qingzhou9983]

@@cryan9376 Well Macau had gambling for decades if not century. But Macau only passed Hong Kong in per capital GDP recently. Can you explain why? By the way, Macau still has very good One Country Two Systems like when it started. And Hong Kong lost it. Can you explain why?

[@fja4301]

Stephen, should be on Biden's speed dial.

[@Telluwide]

Hey, it's Joe Pesci talking Taiwan, China and Geopolitics....

[@PavelZaitsev]

Hey I’m walkin’ here

[@cristiancerb7574]

absolutely!

[@TheVietnameseDevil]

cite your sources

[@freedinner886]

Stephen what a stand-up guy.

[@trankt54155]

No, he is not. He is off with his assessment of American democracy and also of the world. He is better off sticking to talking about Marx, Lenin and Stalin...

[@hardy2175]

What happened to Kotkin? His appearance has completely changed in the past few years.

[@satrialesporkstore7889]

You don't want this guy to go into Joe Pesci mode on ya.

[@milosmilojevic3506]

After Ukraine, the Taiwan is probably the most dangerous potential crisis.

[@abuhammad]

This man is much better than Noam Chomsky.

[@sed9406]

legacy cold war soldier

[@qingzhou9983]

I respect Mr Kotkin very much. But he is wrong to blame PRC for not liking the peaceful Status Quo. He knows the fact it was the current Taiwan leader’ policies led to Taiwanese people’s wish for Independence, ie via education for Taiwan Independence etc. But he blames PRC. That will lead to the wrong US policy and potentially war.

[@dougryan5097]

@Stephen Kotkin: Where are you now, Teach? I'd sure like a video on the current Russian-Ukrainian goings-on! :)

[@cryan9376]

there is a feb 4th video i just saw that did just that

[@notanarchitect]

“Biden on tone & pandemic gets an A”… I don’t think Biden gets an A on anything. He’s a shell of a man at this point, and FAR from a leader.

[@majunair]

Someone talking about investment and not a word on India😂😂😂 my god he is buried in mindset issues beyond words.

[@mactek6033]

Kotkin is out of touch. China will bluster about Taiwan, but they will never attack it. Taiwan is very capable of defending itself. The CCP knows that attempting to take the island would be such a meat grinder for their military that they could be toppled from power.

[@garym2879]

I hope you're correct. But die-hard communists do silly things.

[@rightsophia2843]

@@garym2879 How is that capitalist invasion of Afgahnistan going for you?

[@garym2879]

@@rightsophia2843 ????

[@rightsophia2843]

@@garym2879 Your confusion is understandable. Years of silly propaganda is known to have this effect on your brain.

[@garym2879]

@@rightsophia2843 ?????

[@KNemo1999]

That didn't age well. Predictions are tricky, especially about the future.

[@KNemo1999]

@UN KNOWN Yeah, well that is what make predictions so notoriously unreliable. 2/3 of Americans know this already, but the other half don't understand fractions at all, even though the vast majority of us are well above average. I hope I've cleared that up for you. My reply certainly hasn't done a thing to enhance my understanding.

[@MMA-gb6to]

this guy ignored the fact that it's TW DPP party who trying to break (or play with) the status quo so that they can stay in governing position.

[@harryaarrestad583]

Wish you’d expose yourself a bit more.

[@loneranger4469]

Our democracy is dysfunctional..but it is healthy. Wow ! We have better political institutions because we have corrective institutions. When they are dysfunctional...because the levers of power are held by Corporations...pray how is this a better system. Which country has the highest incarcerations on the planet. Not the repressive Chinese regime...but the so-called free regime in the USA.

[@harryaarrestad583]

Omg , this guy’s never read a book !

[@xing288]

The adjectives of "authoritarian" and "repressive" are highly subjective, provocative and culturally loaded; but a confident, intelligent Western scholar at Princeton would never be objective enough to realize that he may simply be condescendingly applying labels to a social system he hardly understands (except he is convinced that he understands it better than anyone else, since he believes that he understand Soviet Union, Russia and Stalin better than anyone else).

[@john.8805]

Please kindly explain the nuances that are being missed. I would argue it’s repressive if you cannot openly criticize your government without consequences.

[@karenhearthart1491]

the antagonization and the deterioration of relations over taiwan was started by the US and a part of an overall strategy to fight against china. This is of course has its origins in racism. The EU is a competitor of the US, but not considered a "threat." see how the US looks at china vs the EU.

[@goedelite]

Stephen Kotkin, Princeton professor, is not a reliable commentator on US geopolitics. Recently, in February, he was interviewed by Peter Robinson (kzbin.info/www/bejne/q52UmKZ_mdF9fNU). Kotkin called the address in Munich, 2007, by Vladimir Putin, "infamous" ! Reviewing the address, I found it to be direct and hard-hitting but also a truthful account of the advance of NATO forces (which has since continued to the Russian border) eastward, contrary to promises made by the US, Germany and France. The infamy has been that of the US and its NATO puppets. Before he died in 2020, Stephen F. Cohen, Princeton and NYU professor, made clear the aggressiveness of the US and NATO and the betrayal of their promises. Kotkin has the dirty boot on the wrong foot!

[@cryan9376]

confused what you are saying

[@ragglefraggle9111]

Kremlin bot

[@fuzzy5610]

I certainly hope you’re not living in the west and enjoying our freedoms while spreading this diarrhea. I sincerely hope you’re living in Russia or elsewhere other than western society because if not I honestly think the time has come to start purging the filth and traitorous scum from within our society that enjoys all the freedoms our past generations have strived , sacrificed and bled for while sitting on their high horse and criticising that in support of criminal authoritarian regimes!