The Canadian Labour Market Continues to Deteriorate | The Loonie Hour Episode 153

[@rexdansy2330]

Thanks guys. Always enjoy the loonie hour. I'm in my 70's and have been playing in real estate for over 40 years and I love recessions. It's when you get the screaming good deals. This time it's probably from the panicked lemmings who drank the Kool-Aid and lined up to pay astronomical prices for anything with a door when immigration numbers (easy credit, cheap money and population growth usually drive prices in real estate) were nearly unprecedented in Canadian history over the past few years and mortgage money was so cheap that it was basically free. Patience and discipline. It's doesn't take a lot of prescient vision to have seen what was going to happen. It was just a matter of when. But the "kids" with no real estate experience except exceptional price appreciation the past few years might be about to get kicked in the _____ and might be about to learn a very harsh lesson. My favourite saying is "You'll never go broke by underestimating the intelligence level of the general public". Winter is coming. And winter is ususally the best time to find deals. To paraphrase Hedy Green (the witch of wall street) I buy things of value when no one wants them and are desparate to sell and sell them when people are lined up begging to buy. Havfun.

[@devron86]

So when Ben Rabidoux leaves his cabin and sees his shadow, does that mean there will be 6 more weeks of rate cuts? Or....

[@nickjohnston3882]

At 22:35, Steve explains the mechanics of a Ponzi scheme, tying it to the problem with market speculation. Eventually, fundamentals catch up, and like a dog on a leash, the market can only stretch so far before snapping back. Without a significant rise in wages, housing prices will eventually return to their historical average. Rents, in particular, cannot surpass what the average person can afford. Globally, liquidity is drying up because, unlike governments, individuals can't outspend their income indefinitely. This echoes the old saying, "How did you go bankrupt?" "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly," from Ernest Hemingway's. The majority of the Canadian middle class are out of money, make less then they did 4 years ago and have maxed out every credit source they have.

[@Stormshfter]

Household debt will never shrink without wage growth. Simple mathematics. That being said, who are the people waiting to take on debt once rates are down? Ponzi schemes only stay afloat because new money is always being fed in. Once it stops, it falls.

[@kqh123]

are you calling for a correction in Canadian real estate?

[@clydedufffyaway]

I have been watching Mr. Saretsky for a decade now. Well dressed and well spoken young realtor from Vancouver who gave short precise updates on the Vancouver real estate market. To his credit, it wasn’t long before he realized that interest rates and macroeconomic forces drove real estate despite its regionality. His content evolved as he grew and he developed a loyal fan base of which I’m still proudly a member. Just subscribed for Rich’s new channel. Loved the immigration episode. Next step is to realize economics is a social science designed by people to measure the welfare of people and groups. We as individuals and as a group are in volatile times. It’s reflected in the “economics” we created to measure our welfare. Search 1.) limits or growth 2.) the fourth turning 3.) Calhoun’s mouse utopia In light of all we see around us today. Be the best content on the tube. Best wishes on the future and thank you what you’ve done.

[@Lisa-vk2jw]

The 80s called they missed us, here they come! Anyone in construction for any length of time in BC have seen it coming for over a year.

[@donm2067]

It's slow, but it will shake out all the morons that should have never been here.

[@TristanKey-h6q]

Whoever thought this market will continue upwards and beyond has their head in their rear. There is a correction coming since the Russell and the Dow are showing signs of weakness. Depending on the correction may determine if the market rallies once more in the summer for a final blow off top and slightly newer high. After that, watch out. Cycle Analysis predicts a hard drop in the late summer early Fall. Also, we are now 190% Market Cap to GDP ratio. That is very extreme......currently I've been engaged in active trading, which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility and also managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Adriana Jensen, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@ScottHerzog-S.r]

This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.

[@ErikaOrenday-k4d]

The internet is filled. with so many useful information. about Adriana Jensen.

[@BenHardyy]

Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!

[@Linda_Haines]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@SamMcNaughton01]

It really helped trading with Adriana Jensen analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..

[@jamesbrennan12]

You boys are so on the money, appreciate the content guys!

[@dodoboy66]

When Rich said he was finally able to move out on his own at the ripe old age of 39, I felt that.

[@Macinro191]

Favourite weekly podcast! would love some BC RE market deep dives from Steve, the ICAM deep dives are great!

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Thanks Mac.

[@nickd9274]

Rents dropping is pretty nuts. Housing is far from getting a bid moving forward.

[@Casey-qm1nd]

I wanted to post my economic outlook. It is a bit long, but here it is if anyone cares to read. You are welcome to critique and challenge it and add to the conversation. Here goes. The next wave of inflation won't be driven by consumer spending, but it will be driven by government spending and debts. This will come at the expense of the private sector and middle class. As it stands now, government spending accounted for 80% of the recent gdp growth. What happens when governments can't afford to pay out the yields on the bonds? These bonds will become liabilities, not assets. At some point the central banks will have to be the buyer of their own bonds that no one wants. The interest payments on the debt will become highly inflationary. Once they have to start raising rates again, it will be in an environment where the consumer is already feeling pinched and weakened. That is when you will start to see a major sentiment shift in mass psychology. That is when people will realize that low rates will not make things easier as people have to spend much higher prices on everything else. This means they have less money and desire to bid up the prices of housing. As higher for longer rates are realized, the asset prices will keep adjusting. It's not like wages are going to be outpacing inflation anytime soon (real world inflation, not cpi). If AI is more readily introduced, this will hurt wage growth even more, but could help ease price pressures too. As it stands now, we have a massive surplus of labour to suppress wages. I expect more tariffs and trade wars, and less reliance on cheap chinese goods. Commodities and companies leveraged to commodity prices will be the place to be, everyone is sleeping on that, but big money is starting to move in. Why do you think there is a lack of investment interest in Canadian real estate right now? Investors are super calculated and forward looking, speculators are the total opposite. Guess what the market is saturated with? Speculation. House prices are so sticky because average people are the last to figure things out, so their psychology is still anchored to peak prices despite a much different economic environment. The expectations won't change until the rates start going back up. Rates have trended down since 1981, but those trends don't last forever. As we near a pivot point in rates and transition into a trend reversal, the psychology is biased and still stuck in the past, with expectations that rates will keep going lower to save the day, like all the times before. At some point the lower rates will be politically unpopular as inflation keeps chipping away at living standards for an extended duration, and becomes more embedded in price expectations. You need to factor in how the psychological expectations are still lagging economic reality. It is a major factor in sticky prices. The cuts now are transitory in nature, most people haven't figured this out yet. You may see a short term bounce in prices, but it won't hold as it won't be supported by long term fundamentals.

[@fredbender2587]

I think you are right in most everthing that you have stated. I also believe that this whole scenario of inflation, high house prices and Government printing money is all intentional. If you read the WEF plan for 2030, this is all in line. Government control is the intended outcome.

[@Stormshfter]

You have to be a certain age to be able to fathom that your statements could be true. I unfortunately am old enough to share your opinions. It will be a shocker for most.

[@bilbobaggins4462]

Well done! Agree with all you have carefully laid out. I don't have to watch the video now!😊

[@meddlehedd1194]

"The next wave of inflation won't be driven by consumer spending, but it will be driven by government spending and debts...." So basically, more of what we have seen for the last 25 years. Translation: buy gold

[@fromabove9774]

😂 there is no scenario where cheap easy money isn’t popular.

[@veeo987]

The main problem with the return to work scheme at the federal government is mostly the new shared workspace model. When employees had their individual desks in a department and were meeting in person, in made sense to work in person. But now the federal government is asking its employees to drive to a government building to plug their laptop to internet on a shared desk next to people who work in different departments just so they can do meetings with their colleagues on Microsoft Teams. None of that makes sense. Employees are basically polluting and clogging roads and transit to do remote work in a building instead of from home. A part of me thinks it's a plan to make some employees quit so it reduces the need to lay off employees once it's time to cut staffing.

[@fromabove9774]

I really feel for those poor government workers having to drive to work.

[@jwg9338]

I have a simple solution, lay off any worker sharing a desk.

[@dinagallis2664]

Really enjoy listening to you guys! Thanks so much!! Will be watching again next week! 😊

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Loonie Hour!

[@Geronimo-mo7qg]

The Sahm rule does not work in the case of Canada due to excessive population growth due to immigration...it requires stable population growth based on historic averages

[@handaferguson]

Great Job!!! Thank You... :-)

[@mr.anonymous5369]

Public Sector has proved that a large proportion of jobs can be completed from home, and it would be better use of public resources to have more mixed departmental properties and reduce the spending on leases to some of these buildings, especially as it pertains to high cost areas such as Ottawa and Vancouver.

[@donm2067]

Most work from home people can't handle it, they just walk their dog, nap, do laundry, etc. If they complete their tasks in 4 hours they should be paid for 4 hours.

[@LeslieMiletich]

I agree with you Steve on the ranges now. It was the opposite that happened about 6 years ago when we couldn't appraise it right then too when things sold hundreds of thousands more.

[@andrewvader9077]

Lindsay Ontario is booming now for houses. They are expensive homes around 600k-899k. More Toronto style homes. Tons more in Development. I warn anyone to not move their unless it's remote work. Theirs no jobs to support this boom in population that's mostly a retirement town.

[@gregbaxter3249]

same in Cobourg the once feel good town that is more widely known now for its homeless encampment and huge growth of the TO retirement class driving prices during CVD this summer was slow here in Real Estate transactions until the Feds started to drop Interest rates.

[@meddlehedd1194]

Same in Picton

[@andrewvader9077]

@@meddlehedd1194 to Find affordable homes everyone is displaced. Tho, not that affordable for homefork.

[@assadsathian3368]

Missed the Ottawa meet up . Hope you guys will be back to Ottawa again. I am following the pod since the early days. Hope to meet you guys someday

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

We had a lot of fun in Ottawa.

[@kylere6288]

Canada is 157 years old. Do you guys have anything special planned for episode #157?

[@onemrandrew]

Keep churning the great content. It probably will be a prudent idea to rename this KZbin channel to "The Loonie Hour".

[@bc5810]

Buyers now know rates can turn on a dime and go back up, we literally just went through this. People don't forget that quickly.

[@marcgatto9675]

Thanks, guys. Have fun in Ottawa 🎉

[@Davidtbv]

Another great episode it feels like we are getting the dirty secret that things are great that so many Canadians are missing or ignoring. Good luck with the move Rich!

[@Noheatcooltech]

Keith says: “ are you going to cut the crust off now“ 😂

[@markettdeetales]

Those unreal bars are good. Only costco item I ever sampled and then actually purchased.

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

They're unreal.

[@arshad2526]

Great discussion folks. Thanks

[@meddlehedd1194]

40:40 Rich - "Manufacturing used to be 50% of GDP and now it's in the 20's..." 47:50 Rich - "Public sector employment has gone up by almost a million people over the last 4 years" To me this is socialism at work. Please explain to my dumb farmer brain, how Canada can continue on this path? How low can the (largely non government) manufacturing sector go before the weight of the government collapses on us? If we had no immigration, then I would say declining birthrates will solve the problem, and we will naturally increase productivity by doing more work with less people....but population is growing...and these people are working in jobs that do not produce anything.....they are government paper pushers that contribute nothing to productivity. They are paid with tax dollars generated by an ever shrinking private sector...how long can we non government workers continue to support them? The answer is we can't, and the government has no choice but to print money to pay these people. I see no end to this death spiral unless we cut EI benefits and force people to work, lower the population and take them all from non productive government jobs (oxymoron, I know). I was sitting at a table with some people a while back......a prison guard, two school teachers, a children's aid worker and me. I had to pay them all.

[@easterntechartists]

Even worse the millions of 3rd world types we immigrate all believe in socialism and free money from the government and make Canada like their homeland, a dump! Even worse, they had dumps with good weather, we have a dump with ugly cities and weather

[@dirtlump]

Consumer Debt is skyrocketing right along with delinquencies therein on everything from CC's to Auto/RV instruments.....Food Banks are seeing record usage increase levels MoM.... Mortgage payments aren't far behind now seeing increasing arrears/defaults. Simply put..... all BoC Monetary Policy will do is somewhat alleviate the deleveraging pain, but make NO mistake here.... there is NOT going to be any miraculous resurgence in Real Estate price points.... only lower pressures in the foreseeable as gdp/gdi remains constrained.

[@marcoalbanese8221]

Great show guys!! Hopefully you get back to Toronto soon!

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

For sure.

[@freddyferg]

Taxing income from work heavily disincents worker productivity while exempting income from assets (eg real estate capital gain) directly shifts private investment into non-productive real estate price inflation. At least when the US has a property bubble they build more housing stock whereas in Canada we just increase the price of existing housing and the mortgage books of banks. Everything that is wrong in Canada has been orchestrated deliberately by our captured government to appease special interests.

[@smity25ca]

Global Conflict 😳 Canada literally has 4 serviceable Leopard 2 A6, and 12 CF 18’s 🤷🏻‍♂️ Trudeau has gutted the defence capabilities of the country 🤦‍♂️🤡

[@audittheauditors]

The unemployment is still low compared to historical normals.

[@donm2067]

Most people have 2/3 jobs, plus they cook the numbers downwards with those "no longer looking for work".

[@audittheauditors]

@@donm2067 cooking #s downward has always been done, its already baked in to the numbers consistently over the years

[@ElectronicWasteland-p2x]

With a few smart government policies in the early 2000s would have been extremely easy to avoid this, but unfortunately there was no political will to do so. Expensive housing has completely eroded the productive capacity of our country, and without a massive land price crash it's not fixable.

[@johnk7267]

Yup they had absolutely zero foresight, though perhaps that's not accidental. I truly feel politicians sold out Canadians to make big, greedy profits and now we are forced to pick up the pieces.

[@deep8174]

Keith with the dad jokes! When are you all coming to Victoria?

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Soon.

[@cryptowestcoast]

I'm down for a .5 FED cut.

[@gregbaxter3249]

fed employees will have to be accountable again for their paychecks

[@nickzivs]

LOL wtf was with Boomer’s coconut chocolate treat rant? He is truly the Grandpa Simpson of the pod with the hilarious non sequiturs and tangents. Love it!

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

lol...

[@HardKnocks-pi7pc]

Has anyone considered the work ethic of people between 18 and 35

[@Jancan20]

My wife works as a retail cashier, and gets at least 20 resumes everyday. She says its mixed demographics, students, immigrants and older folks.

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Hi Jan, thanks for sharing. We're starting to see and hear similar stories.

[@seal7513]

Canada for Canadians. I have immigrant and hostile invader fatigue. Indo-Canadians have a different gene pool and thus different physical and non-physical genetic traits than the hordes of poojees that scammed the system. Everyone babbles about race reality, but nobody wants to talk about gene pool reality because the truths are extremely inconvenient and shatters liberal, right wing, left wing and race-related world-views. Scottish and Irish gene pool has the most red-heads... We know Red heads have more pain-tolerance and probably other traits that are yet to be detected. The British Isle's ancestry gene pool has some very, very unique non-physical genetic traits especially ones that affects a people's innovation style/pattern. We created Canada (northern french ancestry as well), USA, Australia, and New Zealand. After WW2, we brought in Germans, Jews, Poles, Ukranians, etc to our former colonies so they can recover their loses from WW2... And what did we get in return? Just constant humiliations. Sure we got some nice innovation, but we could have just did eugenics on ourselves to create more geniuses. All we had to do was get former child prodigies in their 20s to become sperm/egg donors, then bribe working class people to have and raise these children. But no we gave everyone the opportunity to innovate so they can be proud and feel good about their own people. Well NO MORE. We need to start a British Isle's ancestry club. Where anyone with some British Isle's ancestry (Irish, Scottish, Welsh, English) can join, mixed-race members will be accepted and praised as they are our creations. The English man alone fathered many children with every ethnic group on the planet before anyone else. With this club, we will reveal that we have CLAWS in every nation across the world. We will celebrate our ancestry's unique non-physical traits and our unique patterns. We will take back our nations from hijackers and repel hostile invaders who are trying to STEAL our territory. The Britons got rid of the romans after they built cool stuff for them, and we can do it again to the New Romans.

[@dirtlump]

That's my wider view.... stagflation at best, and we won't discuss the now significant and increasing downside risks from that stagflation default scenario.

[@JD-hr6dr]

24:48 who is Rich referring to here?

[@paulpoco22]

29:25 so March 2026 we could be a lot lower for rates. This is my renewal of my current 2.05% 5 year mortgage.

[@dasgti2]

Boycott of Ottawa business is a lie! I challenge anyone to go get lunch anywhere in the parliamentary precinct without waiting 15-20mins in line!

[@meddlehedd1194]

disappointed that Steve quoted no source quoted for that tidbit

[@markhoffman]

Rich needs to grow a moustache, won’t be single long…

[@leonchen89]

Some people suffers from chronic singleness. Nothing will help.

[@seal7513]

@@leonchen89 Rich is breedable though.

[@GearsDemon]

Gold is hitting new all time highs on expected cuts + further currency devaluation.

[@Ricardo-gs2ce]

Real estate is a key component of many Canadian retirement plans. If the real estate market crashes, it could significantly impact people's retirement savings. The government likely aims to avoid this scenario to protect retirees' financial stability.

[@Stormshfter]

When I bought my last and current house in 1996 my expectation was when I turned 60(last year) it would be worth 400k. They tell me it's worth 1.1mil. The govt knows no one was expecting this kind of a run. They will let it fall.

[@Ricardo-gs2ce]

@@Stormshfter Despite Canada reaching its peak interest rates, we haven't yet seen a real estate crash. Imagine what could happen after a few rate cuts.

[@Stormshfter]

​@@Ricardo-gs2ce The reason no one is buying is because anyone with access to enough credit has already taken it. All that's left is people who want to buy but can't. Interest rates don't matter anymore, everyone knows prices will fall so they will wait until it falls to the point of what they can finance. It is what it is.

[@Ricardo-gs2ce]

@@Stormshfter The government has numerous tools at its disposal to push prices back up, so I don’t expect housing prices to drop in major cities. However, prices may decrease in less densely populated areas.

[@chefvarshney]

If Rich can afford to move to his own place the economy must be doing fine!! 😀CF: We are the first G7 country……..

[@saveourplanet4204]

4 days a week for many, not 3 days

[@obesia1873]

I've never head of someone failing to date in Montreal? The city is full of beautiful ladies and men everywhere. I'm worried for him

[@markhoffman]

Keith needs to come out of the closet and embrace Gen-X. If he truly is Gen-X, so many things make sense now.

[@andrewvader9077]

Rents dropping probably bc deportation is finally hitting those city's.

[@Jancan20]

Be realistic, no one ever gets deported in Canada. You can drag it in court for years, mean time people get married and have kids and stay in the country.

[@tyc00n]

did he call it crime use? 😂

[@pwnu2]

All in on Bitcoin !

[@benvicius672]

Potentially 3 twinkies. If they hold, Steve should have 2.

[@notalmostfamous9773]

Twinkies are 2 for 1 today!

[@paulinebowen5170]

What is Rich U tube channel?

[@Casey-qm1nd]

Icecap asset management

[@paulinebowen5170]

@@Casey-qm1nd Thank you!!

[@stefanhashinsky9516]

I don't hit the like button until Keith makes the commie joke 😄

[@R_daSilva]

I disagree .. on your political take . easy to blame the old guy ..LOL

[@gemmakaila541]

GLORY!!!'m favoured, $140K every 3weeks! And I am retired i can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America 🇺🇸 ❤️

[@Debbie_ay.045]

Excuse me for real?, how is that possible I have struggling financially, how was that possible?

[@gemmakaila541]

Thanks to my co-worker whom God used to give a great opportunity of crossing paths with 'Mrs KATE ELIZABETH BECHERER'.

[@gemmakaila541]

She's a licensed broker here in the states🇺🇲 and finance advisor.

[@daveramsey12]

YES!!! That's exactly her name (Kate Elizabeth Becherer) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her Brisbane Australia🇭🇲

[@davehoper_319]

I have heard a lot of wonderful things about Kate Elizabeth Becherer on the news but didn't believe it until now. I'm definitely trying her out

[@BogdanRotman]

Guys here is a hint: Poland is doing well because (i) some German industry has been outsourced there for lower labor costs; and (ii) grifting off the Ukraine and all the aid that has to go through via Poland. Some stuff does fall off the truck!

[@chefvarshney]

Temporary Foreign Worker intake should be linked to youth unemployment rate not unemployment rate in general as TFWs compete with largely the jobs youth seek. And by that measure we are way over the threshold intake for a long time

[@meddlehedd1194]

I will push back on this. For 20 years, the majority of TFW's have been truck drivers. Only in the last few months have they been Tim Horton workers.

[@DustinTime101]

SASK FIRST!!!

[@AmolGharat]

Rates are coming down buy buy buy buy 🎉

[@sams8302]

Can we skip the small talk at the beginning ?

[@TheRazzaManazza]

You're free to do so!

[@fillmorehillmore8239]

I just skip to about the 4 minute mark each week.

[@johnk7267]

Yes you're allowed to, thanks for asking