Bank of Canada Shocks the World, But Not the Loonie Hour- The Loonie Hour Episode 16

The Bank of Canada shocked many in the financial world when they kept rates on hold this week. People were seriously pissed off. However, the gents at the Loonie Hour saw this coming. In this weeks episode we discuss the implications of this policy decision and what we expect moving forward.
Listen to The Loonie Hour on your favourite podcast platform:
The Loonie Hour on Spotify: open.spotify.c...
The Loonie Hour on Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple...
#TheLoonieHour #Macroeconomics #PersonalFinanceCanada

[@larkhallman]

600 million the government gives annually to the Canadian news media to feed there narrative.That’s why Podcasts like this are so important/ valuable … Thank you.. Keep it going ….

[@saretsky]

Thank you !

[@garotorossian690]

@@saretsky how about giving the convoy some love? You gave Bitcoin pumper love a few weeks ago

[@backup1478]

could Bill C-10 change the ability of individual podcasts and publishers to post content?

[@larkhallman]

@@garotorossian690 latest is the Truckers gofundme has been frozen ,basically government strategy is to starve them out as the towing companies have refused there services…If the Truckers fail then these types of podcasts will be blocked …

[@Rawdiswar]

Pretty soon this podcast will be considered "Harmful misinformation", looking forward to more content as the wheels continue to fall off the Canadian economy.

[@Mr.dr.brotherman]

My appreciation for this content increases weekly at the approximate rate of inflation

[@amandang6604]

Glad you said approximate and not official.

[@Mr.dr.brotherman]

@@amandang6604 I wouldn’t want to get too excited. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[@saretsky]

LOL 🙏🏻

[@petermelnikov682]

Even the Loonie Hour suffers from the inflation, it is no more an hour long!

[@Sajid7x7]

Was listening on Spotify, just restarted as soon as it showed up on my feed on KZbin. This is turning into my favourite podcast!

[@saretsky]

Love it thank you !

[@b-rare]

Reliable Steve on time with the posts thank you been looking forward to this one all week. Commenting before watching I’m that pumped lol. It’s like the super bowl weekend over here

[@saretsky]

Thanks for the support !

[@dwightcarlson7136]

Very impressed with your 'talks' especially when Rich clarifies the definition of basis points; like a very good teacher who doesn't assume that everyone knows all the definitions of words involved.

[@GenXnation1]

Pump as hard as the bank can pump! March will see no rate increase either as the Gov will still be way under water.

[@tabelch]

I liked your play on "unacceptable views" go truckers go!

[@zacdrake3]

Great episode, I appreciate and always look forward to the Loonie hour!

[@ts9271]

Thank you guys for providing this content

[@galaxyplumbinginc.8226]

Guys thank you so much for taking time out and having real conversations. Very much appreciate what you guys are doing. Great wealth of information by three awesome dudes !.

[@georgedavidson1221]

Interest. Rates need to raised to slow the crazies. Farm price is still the same. 2.50 cents per pound for hung beef and that has been constant and for a long time. Someone is jacking prices

[@manbarbecue]

BOC knew the economy cannot withstand the rate hike and they will wait for the FED to raise and force them to raise so they won't be blamed.

[@lambergino]

@@cryptoholica72 I know right! that will be anothe 'shock' haha

[@lonsdalewellnessstudio9197]

So glad to hear Keith supports the truckers!! Keep up sharing those “unacceptable views” so we don’t have to rely on only what Trudeau think we should be allowed to hear!

[@Stop_Loss]

Thanks Steve and co Nice intro gfx

[@LaMach420]

Happy to have found a Canadian finance podcast, keep it up

[@yorkshireway150]

I was waiting for your analysis. Literally watched at work 😃😃.You guyz are amazing ❤❤ from vancouver bc

[@saretsky]

Much appreciated 🙏🏻

[@jamesholt5963]

Gentlemen. Its not that difficult to measure CPI! Just look at your Credit card statements! WTF. We all need a meal. x3 We all need gasoline. We all have a Utility Bill to pay. Rent, Property Taxes Annualized, meaning looking back a year ago, I'm seeing 15.27536% I'm trying to make some humour. But seriously, 15% Just look at your Credit card records.!

[@guillaume_tca]

A other great episode! 🙏

[@jamessilverton8640]

BOC got a call from Jerome in the morning.

[@Wellspring604]

Thanks guys! I was waiting patiently for this one :)

[@anthonym9130]

This is also an indication of how bad a state the government is in

[@dwightcarlson7136]

I am almost sure that the wagon wheel is smaller than the ones that I ate when I was young. i. e. ties right into shrinkflation 😂😂😂👍👍👍

[@steveshideler1333]

Love the intro! Keep these rolling! Do you think the bank of Canada was waiting to see if the US Fed actually raises rates before they move?

[@saretsky]

Not waiting per se. But they will follow and raise in March

[@mattslowikowski3530]

Since there are no calls for the Fed to raise by 50 bpts in March, we may end up catching up to expectations by then

[@dinoa9608]

44:40. To me this is the most important takeaway from this episode. This is the endgame of central banks - "Socializing the Debt Problem" - forcing everyone, even conservative investors/savers to also be part of this debt bubble, so when it all blows up, everyone will need to be part of the big reset or whatever they end up doing, and the masses will buy in, and the leveraged geniuses will not have to own it. Very upsetting for people who only have taken managed risks. Per the rules of decades past. Now nobody can fail. Not the stock market or real estate.

[@dwightcarlson7136]

Because of government obligations that depend on CPI, the government want it to be as low as possible.

[@paulpoco22]

We got inflation. People think home owners are getting rich. Well not, lots of Strata buildings are getting older now. Our 33 year old townhouse complex needs all the decks replaced. Well they took 1/4 of the costs out of the reserve fund and the other 3/4 of costs are a special assessment of about $5900 each.

[@-whackd]

We will be tight with the money in the same time frame that the BOJ and ECB got tighter... Around never.

[@laserodds6289]

While yeah we need rate hikes, it may be argued that it’s insanely ballsy to hold rates low after all the main banks begging for it.. housing bubble is daily news, like, the bank of Canada is straight up saying “shove it, we’re inflating away government debt” Edit: just want to say thanks for the great insights from all of you. There’s finance/market/etc info all over the place, but content that takes a Canadian perspective.. makes me miss Lang & O’Leary and those solid CBC financial news that (maybe coincidence, maybe intentional?) came up during the Harper years

[@kevinbarr9933]

It was a troubling episode to see the frustration, maddening, shocking, and dismayed the three of you were that Tiff and crew did not even raise interest a measly .25%, and like Rich said "it was an easy layup" for them to just do as the market had already reacted, as it was at least 75% likely as Keith stated the previous week which I fully agreed with him. However, with no move in interest rates yet again they just "blew some more air into that bubble" as Keith stated. As wrong as it might be for me to still stand by Chief economist Rosenberg who stated that a 1% raise in interest rates would pop the bubble in Canadian housing, additionally Rosenberg stated that the Canadian housing inflation is "the biggest bubble in the Universe", I would love to see Rosenberg's reaction to the latest Jan.26th not even a measly .25% to at least match what the market anticipated, yet here we go again, more fuel poured on the fire of unchecked out of control hyper inflation!

[@dwightcarlson7136]

I thought a lot of the Weimar Germany problem was caused by the huge war reparations imposed on Germany and that Germany decided to pay back the debt with devalued currency???? To prevent a similar situation after WWII the Americans formed the Marshall Plan to help Europe and particularly Germany recover.????

[@michaelmclean1092]

Whats gonna happen here in Canada with the Freedom Covoy 2022 and theres 50 to 100000 truckers at Parliament ottawa Ontario. Does that effect prices. Does that create shortages and then over buying again. What does the loonie think

[@deaddynamite8568]

They did say in December that their forward guidance was as such. They would in fact reduce their credibility if they decided to hike their interest in the 1Q of 2022 which hurts Canada's position in terms of investing. It could be argued that instead of having that forward guidance, they should have had something different. We'll likely see them co-ordinate rate hikes with the EU and the US in order to not be adversely affected by moving the hikes.

[@jamessilverton8640]

15:00 Nailed it on the head.

[@mattslowikowski3530]

So based on the rate curve, the BoC can raise overnight rates by like 1% and not affect their long term bond prices now. So I'm not sure if this whole super large debt argument holds completely.

[@nickstoddard4770]

Where do we put my money? I need HINTS & TICKER Symbols :) Thanks. Haven't missed an episode.

[@mrratchet307]

Boomer is the wise old owl of these, great content.

[@unclereefer37]

IMHO we may never see rate hikes again. Too much Fed debt it is not possible to pay it back unless the currency is debased. If they keep printing money AND raise rates, its time to get out the teekie torches and start marching in the village squares

[@DiabeticDawg]

I bet on sqqq and spxu prior to fed announcements and enjoyed the ride. I took the opinion that rates wouldn’t rise and got out in time. As a young fella this was one of the most exciting and perhaps lucky trades I’ve made. Couldn’t of done it without the Loonie Hour

[@TylerMarsh87]

A while ago, while Janet Yellen was the Fed Chair she said their would not be another crash in her lifetime. Watch for any news about her health, and you will know when to sell and take cover.

[@dwightcarlson7136]

👍😂😂😂😂

[@brianpereira7483]

bet against the debt and become your own central bank because the reaction to a deflationary collapse they will re pump it

[@addyinvest]

Great stuff guys!

[@rolandvencel4256]

great coverage again.

[@stephanienguyen6992]

LOL - Inflation 7% USA vs 4% Canada, do NOT make sense $200,000 USA vs $1,800,000 CDN - Home Price. I do not know where they get learn their MATH from ??? 😭😭😭

[@rahzelwashington6847]

Canada underreports. Housing prices dont even factor into CPI

[@sharinglungs3226]

Each country measures things differently. No one in Canada believes the inflation number. Anyone who buys gas, food, pays for electricity, etc knows it’s far higher.

[@cryptowestcoast]

Hey guys. If you are going to plug a website, you should put the link in notes below. Just my 2 satoshis

[@undertheradar9295]

"The world does not revolve around Canada"? What?

[@user-qn1sx1bo7w]

My opinion was they were not go to raise rates.

[@philshyu5248]

44:30. Since when has any bank loaned money to anybody to finance a business? The ONLY place where low interest rates cause bank money to go is to the housing market.

[@nickstoddard4770]

😆 yesss Keith! This was the best

[@kerrytoby7041]

It's a little addicting. The more I listen the more I learn 🙂

[@cocochanel6495]

Inflation is required to reduce the debt as a way to create additional space for more debt. They don't want a debt jubilee at this time. They will also implement wage a price controls as in the past .... the currency will be devalued

[@kerrytoby7041]

Thanks for helping us to understand.

[@rdsmallz]

I have a topic I would be interested to hear discussed on this show. What about a Federal Property Tax that is a direct credit for Income Tax owing. Would that not push out foreign capital parked in housing?

[@j420weed]

Speaking of pushing people into risky assets no mention of crypto this week Steve? Did you hodl and btfd? All jokes aside thanks for the great content. You guys rock!

[@saretsky]

I am nibbling here

[@mdrnfinance]

My wife and I just bought in Port Moody because we’re starting a family. Highly levered obviously. Should we sell this year before real estate collapses?

[@tingtingzhang4244]

It will be stupid idea to time the market if it is your home

[@saretsky]

Lol I think you’ll be ok

[@trisnrik2245]

Yea so rates go up .. to what 2% max.. they don't want to bankrupt everyone . So ull be fine ultimately.. it also go slower than you think .. so just don't waste ur money

[@sharinglungs3226]

If we had a responsible government and central bank then you should consider timing your exit. Since we don’t to both you can sleep well at night. They will keep the bubble going even if it means bankrupting this country.

[@sarahdee3546]

You’ll be good just don’t waste your money as someone said. Hang on to it if it is your home. One of my sons is in the same position. If something so terrible happens he can rent it and move to a cheaper town and rent something really cheap for a while. Keep your house you are living in.

[@GateHacker1]

Intro is fireee 🔥

[@bhupinderkalra5188]

Boc dropped the interest unreasonably in short period and house prices doubled in short period never seen before this type of jump but boc not heard the voice of major banks to increase rates. More inflation is coming and expect more increase in house prices.

[@Slickpete83]

*the Bank of Mom&Dad inc. shocks the world by giving its employees money for a down payments and co-signing* hahhaha...

[@sarahwaters7290]

Little bit of tension between Keith and Rich? 🤔 haha

[@Mr.dr.brotherman]

🕊

[@bschiele1]

I don’t know why, I love Steve’s solo weekly report. I just cannot get into this loonie hour. I’ve tried every episode and quit it about the 10-15 minute mark. Just can’t do it

[@sandymac7153]

Great new intro Steve 🙌

[@saretsky]

👊🏼

[@lambergino]

they are not gonna raise rates more than twice MAYBE 3 max this year lol and thats on the high side.

[@robertferminho7704]

Investing in crypto now should be in every wise individuals list, in some months time you'll be ecstatic with the decision you made today.

[@markJohnson-kk1hn]

I got 80% of my total portfolio in Crypto and it has be great returns

[@felixgallardo190]

I wanted to trade Crypto but got confused by the fluctuations in price

[@bellaadamas5850]

@Agnes HowdenShe's obviously the best i invested 2000USD with her and I made a profit of 9101USD

[@ednasmith4595]

Her stories are everywhere 😱

[@ryder7634]

Trading crypto with Expert helen Davis has being a game changer for me

[@DiabeticDawg]

This show provides such great insight 👌🏻

[@jbay088]

"Do you not think though, when you look at Canada's horrendous debt picture, when you've got so much debt isn't it good to have inflation running hot?" Isn't it good to change the rules when you're losing the game? What downside could there possibly be from doing that? The problem, though, is that this game goes on forever, and the players adapt when they notice that the rules are flexible. Effectively if you let that happen, it means that the Bank of Canada loses its inflation-control mandate credibility, and everybody factors that in. On what basis do you expect debts to not subsequently grow faster than inflation?

[@captainnova9196]

Hey Steve! Love what you do! I just wanted to touch base on your intro disclaimer. You say "Please consult investment advice" but that line isn't really grammatically correct. You should say something like "Please consult an investment advisor" or "This podcast is for education purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice". Saying "Please consult investment advice" isn't grammatically sound and doesn't make sense. Love what you do, just trying to help you out a bit!

[@saretsky]

Ya I know. Too lazy to redo

[@nick2721]

I'm calling a bust in 2023/2024.

[@sharinglungs3226]

I expect the start of the recession which considering the debt and leverage in the system we can see a depression in Ontario. Outskirt cities around Toronto that went up 50% or more will get crushed.

[@LoveNeverFails81818]

zero forever… I see zombie companies and dead banksters

[@stephanienguyen6992]

STOP Printing Cash. STOP Tax Payers. STOP Bail Out. STOP free money for big corporation. STOP build more debts if you don't have cash come in.

[@LC-hv1qn]

They beat the Boomer. No interest rate hike. They will never let him off the hook. Lmao....

[@valentinejeman8273]

Dont worry, the boomer will be back with a vengeance

[@rahzelwashington6847]

Old people find it hard to accept that MMT is actually happening

[@baseline6786]

Boc made the right decision not raising in a fragile economy.. letting RE stay strong. Boc shouldnt move until Feds do

[@dwightcarlson7136]

Watch out for Justin's thought police to come after you for all your unacceptable views.

[@sandymilne224]

It takes practice to speak publicly and one of the no-no’s is using the non-word “um” in every sentence. Don’t mean to be critical, but “um” it’s very “um”, distracting.

[@saretsky]

Start your own podcast

[@sandymilne224]

@@saretsky :Good advice. 😊 I was referring to your guest… not you. Just wanted to clarify. Sorry.