Understanding the War in Ukraine (6) - China

STG Director Prof Alexander Stubb sheds light on the war in Ukraine in a series of video lectures. Each lecture focuses on a different angle regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
After the covering the general situation, Finland, Europe, the world, and Russia, this lecture zooms in on China.
This episode was recorded on 8 April 2022.
More on eui.eu/stg
#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #China

[@travezripley]

This has been such a fascinating series! Thank you, from all sides this has been just so insightful.

[@gordanhyland7422]

Interesting lecture series thus far. Fascinating to hear this perspective, impressive guy. Many questions come to mind but better to park them until the end of the series - ranging from geo-strategic to tactical in nature.

[@pexxajohannes1506]

Alexander Stubb is douchebag. Political animal without anyting unique, except always 3 points. His brain can process barely three things. He failed spectacularly (like in his politics).

[@pexxajohannes1506]

Napoleon Bonaparte: Never interfere your enemy, when he is making a mistake. 1. China will give Russia leverage to fight. 2. Russia will fight like it fought first Crimean war. 3. After bankrupsy, Russia must start selling land assests in far east #Enter China bid This is Chinese game plan.

[@johnnymatias3027]

@@pexxajohannes1506 not necessarily land, but the resources under it. And that's good enough for China; a near unlimited piggy bank of natural resources.

[@KG-1]

That would be more in keeping with their tributary vs territorial style. They wrote Sun Tzu in the time of Alx the Great.

[@Mike-rm9bb]

This guy, condemns Russia and Syria as "rogue states". The US/UK is rogue for a long time... Then claims China which is fascist and has minorities in concentration camps committing geocide and this asshole does not mention how evil China is. China is one of the most repressive places in the world! Coward!

[@kirillshturbabin8536]

Great series, very clear, precise and thought-provoking. Would be excited to see more episodes on topics of Ukraine (the whole series is obviously very much about Ukraine, but still, it could be interesting to hear your observations of Ukrainian perspective). Also on the UK as it took the leading and unique role in supporting Ukraine. Thank you very much for your work!

[@emesejohn5367]

What a delight, keep up the great work Alex! Much appreciated

[@duls297]

Another insightfull video about the geopolitical we are going through. Cheers from Canada !

[@johnhogan5766]

Absolutely the best round-up out there. Thank you Alex/EUI

[@mattipaivinen3568]

He was a lobbyist for Monsanto's Round-up use extension in the EU.

[@louiscervantez1639]

Thank You. For your entire series, I appreciated 1.) your format 2.) reference to outside resource eg Marti Kari 3.) a non North American view. Hope to hear more …🤠

[@kukulroukul4698]

what does that suppose to mean :D Do you think for mister Stubb the american culture is an open book...not having any secrets for him ??? I would be very SURPRISED if that was the case

[@kukulroukul4698]

if it acts like an amateur , walks like an amateur and speaks like an amateur... I GUESS SO ! :)

[@HighPower762]

@@kukulroukul4698 That's the best feature of "American culture." we are by definition, "an open book." Our history and our process of governance is well known throughout the world. That is not to say that the US government doesn't have its secrets, but we've always been pretty open as to what our goals are in economic and foreign policy. That is one of the simultaneous advantages/disadvantages of being an democratic free society. Especially when contrasted to the more autocratic, dictatorial countries like Russia and China. Professor Stubb is obviously very familiar with the Western model of governance. He also has a lot of insights on the Eastern approaches as well. That's why this lecture series has been so illuminating. I love his methodical and well reasoned approach to all of the topics so far.👍

[@iippaah]

I see you mastered Stubb's three points he's famous for:D

[@Illkacirma]

as usual: great mini lecture! thanks mr. Stubb!

[@kevincrady2831]

If you're interested in continuing this series, I would like to see your views on the U.S., and how you think the polarization of U.S. politics will affect the war, especially if the Republicans win control of Congress and/or the White House over the next few years.

[@aachoocrony5754]

He's just a parrot. Doesn't matter if the Reps win except for public perception. It's why they couldn't have Trump win the last election. With the exact same things happening if he were President now, trust in government would be beyond repair.

[@ianthesiow3013]

Great points. Your opinions are well justified and supported + balanced. Keep up the great work.

[@sharoncloete4060]

What a brilliant mind! Wow! Thank you Professor from South Africa 🇿🇦. I listened to all your lectures. So insightful. Please keep them coming

[@toddbilleci8563]

Thank you-also thanks for the valuable, recent interview on France 24.

[@anastasiialucykyv3960]

Thank you, this is a very interesting set of lectures. However, I feel it unfair not to have a separate video about Ukraine, about its history, mentality and leadership. Like you treat Ukraine as an object, but not a subject in this war.

[@resrussia]

Thank you for offering Rana Mitter as a source of further reading on China as well as the other texts.

[@joancramer7484]

These are great. Thank you!!!

[@evahernberg2624]

Tack för jättefina föresläsningar gällande kriget i Ukraina. Presentationerna är tydliga och lätta att förstå och framställningarna pedagogiska. Hoppas på mera material i fortsättningen. Lycka till i fortsättningen.

[@johnchestnut9739]

Thanks so much for your great insight. Very helpful and informative.

[@m.a.0830]

New subscriber Amazing explanation. I hope this will be an eye opener for them

[@katy3mpress]

Thanks Alex. I really enjoy listening to these lectures. Your appearance on Sky news bought me here

[@sugarly69]

Really appreciate this European assessment of china. I suggest reading some Lee Kuan Yew’s analysis of us china relations and the future of that relationship

[@simplexj4298]

A simply outstanding lecture series on the geopolitical subsumption of Russia's attack on Ukraine! Highly recommended.

[@joshdu1659]

Never knew that, thanks for clarifying.

[@alexanderstubb1001]

Much appreciated. Work in progress. Right now crafting stuff on power in the 21st century.

[@farzana6676]

Japan was supposed to be the next superpower in the 1980's. How did America contain them?

[@Rob_F8F]

@@farzana6676 US didn't contain then as Japan is an ally. Japan has the same demographic problem as most industrialized nations in that it's population is getting older and older. On the military side, Japan does have the 2nd strongest navy in the world and works very closely with the US Navy.

[@farzana6676]

@@Rob_F8F I think you are highly mistaken. Chinese navy is almost as large as the US navy.

[@Rob_F8F]

@@farzana6676 I stand corrected. That said. A large percentage of PLAN ships are small and of the previous generation's design and technology (this not including the truly old coastal defense stuff that they go rid of years ago). The JMSDF vessels are mostly modern, with three 4 new light carriers (DDH), the Aegis destroyers, and the modern attack subs.

[@imnotanalien7839]

Most fascinating lecture on foreign affairs I’ve listened to… maybe partly because of the worlds current situation. Your comment about ‘is democracy a stable institution’ is really on point. The US is a world event ‘one off’…. it’s currently…. a gyroscope spinner that is out of balance. The entire world needs to think how it will effect each person…if it crashes. Interdependence, as you said…. is probably critical…. to keep that gyro from crashing…. on the negative side…. most of the world is leaning heavily on that gyro…. which pushes it to crash faster! Your foreign policy expertise is fascinating to listen to….again… thank you for sharing!! 🌻🌻

[@barrywalsh7926]

Professor Stubb, please post content on Rumble. Thank you!

[@johnspence9718]

Your students are lucky that you're willing to share your knowledge, insight, & experience with them. I know very little of Finland, & those that I've met were living in the US at the time. Thanks for posting these mini lectures & allowing an old man a small amount of continuing education. I do wish I had your faith in the current generation. In the US, it seems that chasing diversity & fairness has unfortunately weakened what little moral character & strength Americans had.

[@jiaxinchen6467]

Thanks for a great talk.

[@nalininsinc]

Please do an presentation on "What Finland will do in case of Russian attack given no article 5 NATO Ratification"

[@rockflowerful]

Excelllent as usual.

[@montieeveritt8595]

Fantastic lecture. Thank you for this mind opening world evaluation.

[@jongood1384]

Great lectures in general, but lots of specific points to take issue with. One: "Chiha knows its history". I teach at a major US university & work with lots of students from Chine. It's amazing how little of Chinese history they know. Chinese leaders may be different.

[@chrisstevenson4579]

yeah hes more often wrong than right.

[@jiaxinchen6467]

I think you are right for those young students who have been busy with their exam-oriented education system. I studied engineering and when I was young, I really didn't have much knowledge of history. But you know, you can then learn your history here and there, everyday, after finishing your education. At least this what I've seen.

[@chrisstevenson4579]

@@jiaxinchen6467 yes knowledge of history obviously depends on what the student specializes in

[@jiaxinchen6467]

Exactly. With an engineering background, I'm still poor in history knowledge, but I think I've picked up knowledge of many major historic events and periods, etc.

[@cinpeace353]

Because your students are from Chine, not China. 😅

[@Febrinasvlogs]

Very interesting. Thanks for this

[@jozefskorik808]

Thank you.

[@nalininsinc]

Keep up the good work Stubby. HSE EMBA Grad

[@santuccifraternity9609]

Good content and wonderfully delivered, well done! Thank you

[@Overthere_World]

This is really an interesting lecture. I also find Professor Alexander Stubb very fluent, confident and eloquent when he talks about many topics of Russia, Europe, America, Finland, transatlantic,WW I, WW II, war in Ukraine, and so on. But when it comes to the topic of China, he is obviously not so confident, and even has to look down at the manuscript many times. I am particularly interested in the details of professor's description of his two meetings with Xi Jinping, which reaffirmed my observations and judgments of Xi's personality. Thank you professor for the wonderful lecture.

[@AllexFerreira]

Tell us the name of the books you did read about china Please

[@peterbohren3637]

I hope there comes an episode about the US‘s interest in your perspective.

[@petnahc]

I am curious which side would the EU take if a war/conflict between China and the US takes place.

[@TNothingFree]

Insightful!

[@richtenney8656]

Very thoroughly enjoying this. So great to hear an opinion that matches mine; that russia is an aggressor and even if Ukraine is a corrupt nation, putin must he stopped.

[@warrennelson5190]

Your take on 'what is China thinking' takes into account 1969 issue between Russ-China as a reason for some distrust between the two but you do not mention the 100 years of humiliation at the hands of 'NATO' countries. China will not be surprised at the ganging up or unity of these countries as they've experienced it first hand during those years. As you say historical context in China is different to the west and those 100 years is very significant in their evaluation of relationships with western nations.

[@KarateDrSanDiego]

Love the lecture series. I was wondering that with China having a long memory what do you think are the chances that China will revisit the Sino-soviet border conflicts after the the Ukraine war and attempt to reclaim the lands the Soviet union took from them?

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

It will be negotiated in the future.

[@ChinaSongsCollection]

I agree with FHD's comment that there is potentially a chance for negotiation in the future. But any negotiations would be in a friendly manner, and with win-win results in mind. That's because both countries are worried about an attack by America. They can't afford to aggravate one another.

[@KarateDrSanDiego]

ChinaSongsCollection in the past russia forced china into agreements when they were strong now russia seems to have become a liability

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

@@KarateDrSanDiego That was the Soviet Union. Russia simply inherited the unequal treaties. China and Russia signed a 25 year friendship agreement in which China will not negotiate the unequal treaties. After 25 years China will resolve the remaining unequal treaties one by one. That's part of Chairman Mao's bucket list.

[@ChinaSongsCollection]

@@KarateDrSanDiego Yes, again agree with FHD. But again, as I mentioned before, it will be in a friendly manner, and with win-win results in mind. Neither party can afford otherwise.

[@grumpydinosaur2347]

I found you several weeks ago, and i rly like how you explain topic in such a good speach hmm temper and focusing on 3 major points. I would like to see also some explanation or view about older topics. West has its "bias" and perhaos some of these topics wouldnt be "appreciated" by the employer, but i would like to see some points about war in Libya, Iraq. War in Iraq also was kinda illegitimate and Libya was even more complicated with involment of some arabic countries, US, France etc.

[@We.1014]

I love listening this guy.🥰

[@user-wy1ne2fc5m]

great lession

[@TheYafaShow]

His proclivity to explore is that of an ancient explorer from a principality from circa bce. Yet his tendency of benevolence is that of an ancient explorer from a municipality from circa ad. Nonetheless, shall your creative prowess prosper and the tides of history always in your favor.

[@henriksahlin3327]

Great episode. How about India? Is it possible to see a lecture on this? Also the longer effects of the war in like Africa and South America. Thanks!

[@HannaMeiners]

Yes, would also be curious about insights on India.

[@G8tr1522]

same, india is a future superpower. I would like to see one for Turkey as well.

[@easternstrategist5276]

What he fails to capture is that the main focus in China regarding Russia-Ukraine conflict is the role the Anglo-Saxon (the US and the UK) and the Jew (with East European background, active in the military industrial complex and neocon/neoliberal) play in terms of their century old's routine of balance of powers and divide and conquer to prevent the regional integration in Eurasia by weakening any regional hegemon (e.g. France, Prussia, Germany, USSR, Russia, China, India, Ottoman). The EU on the other hand is interpreted as a puppet manipulated by the Anglo-Saxons and Jews, and is a dividing union that can barely make decisions based on its own interest.

[@Grak70]

@@easternstrategist5276 how many times are you going to post your antisemitism rant? Go away.

[@easternstrategist5276]

@@Grak70 The West is most racist one in the world.

[@ninotsereteli2133]

Thank you for the nice video. But cooperation and interdependence with Russia was not a deterrent for conflict and anyway we have war in Europa. Why it will work with Chine?

[@Rob_F8F]

The deterrent to conflict with China is not interdependence, but traditional interdiction of critical commodities. While China may be the world's factory it is a net importer of oil and gas from Russia (by pipelines) and the Middle East (by tankers). The makes China very vulnerable to interdiction of those commodities far from its own borders. The CCP is well aware of its exposure on this is therefore will refrain from overt military aggression.

[@pio4362]

I'd be interested to see Mr Stubb do a video on European politics. I was surprised to see him retweet a McFaul tweet celebrating the defeat of an EPP colleague in Slovenia. The Slovenian PM was one of the first to visit Kyiv, he's not a Putin sympathiser.

[@voskreglavincevska3651]

Yes of course he is visiting Ukraine because they both countries Slovenia and Ukraine are the same ! They don't like South !

[@paulv22]

It's very interesting to hear the comments of people like yourself, ambassador Bill Taylor and my own relatives in Poland compared to people like Noam Chomsky and John Mearsheimer. The latter two blame NATO expansion for this war. The people who have actually lived next to Russia want to join NATO. Thanks for the series.

[@martinsFILMS13]

was he referring to Helmut Schmidt ?

[@soloenoah2645]

Thank so much to learn much from your historical teaching of Europe, Asia, and the united states.Really I appreciate you. Next I look forward to learn more about the Africa link to the world. Now Africa continent has brighter future in the technology world ? Thanks once again for your teaching.

[@genghiskhan3912]

Well said

[@yeemay4569]

well said

[@chrisstevenson4579]

lol wtf do you know? less than he which is a low bar.

[@nameless688]

What book is smitt on power?

[@kevinmaccallum336]

When values are aligned, a relationship can last forever.

[@zacharydavis4398]

15:00 - 15:50 - 16:11 💯real life💯 thank you for spending the time to create and share this collectively beneficial content my guy 🙏🏾

[@rayye1303]

Thank you for your openness for us. What my country did in the event of Ukraine is wrong. And I hated for them. But I thank you for your openess of mindset to discuss things. It is really kind and warming

[@TheKenmak]

Kiitos

[@gregwang8628]

What about the under the table maneuvering for the gas and crops acquisitions? As for the three things to read that mentioned in the lecture, you might also need to look into and understand the century old humiliation inflicted by the west, and by the Japanese imperialist on the average Chinese citizens minds. They remember just as you remember 911.

[@rascalkr4967]

Seriously enjoyed the talks so far.

[@rand_handle]

Moi! Kiitos videosta! Oon Ukrainalainen ja onpa meillä paljon kysymyksiä nykyään. Tuleeko videoanalyysi Ukrainasta? Sen näkökulmasta ja tulevaisuudesta. On jo esimerkiksi BBC:n dokumentaalinen elokuva, jossa käsitellään Ukrainan Maidanin historiaa. Jos siis video Ukrainasta on tulossa, voin tarjota mun apua, jos on pakko kääntää englanniksi jonkun pätkän jostakusta lähteestä, esimerkiksi. Tai ehkä voisin antaa yleisiä vihjeitä esimerkiksi siitä, mitä tavalliselle ukrainalaiselle opetetaan koulussa Venäjästä tai Neuvostoliitosta, jotta en ole subjektiivinen. Ukrainassa me uskomme Ukrainan voittoon, mut mitä tulee sen jälkeen? Pelkään tulevia vuosia, itse asiassa. Kirjoitin suomeksi toivottavasti kiinnittääkseni huomion. Opiskelin sitä pari vuotta, mut en ole sekä opiskellut että käyttänyt sitä yli vuoden.

[@rand_handle]

@@geopolitiikkajasota4404, kiitos 🙂

[@shook-puilee-martin3053]

Your analysis on China spot on. The government and its people have long memories and they know their history very well. This is a country with more than 5,000 years of history of which its people are direct descendants from those 50 centuries ago. People are proud of its past but not imperialistic. Continuity is important, so does mutual respect. Hope you could do another episode and a longer one, to delve deeper into the many aspects briefly covered in this episode. Thank you

[@Taojas]

_The government and its people have long memories and they know their history very well. This is a country with more than 5,000 years of history of which its people are direct descendants from those 50 centuries ago._ This, or statements similar, are so frequently trotted out about the Han Chinese that it has become a tired trope. Knowing history, learning from anything from that history about what to do/not what to do in future or believing in history being your future are three entirely different things. If anything, this tired trope was/is/will be the eternal Albatross hanging around China's neck and far from being it's greatest strength, is actually it's greatest weakness. *History is a Trap* If you believe in a cyclical version of history, then China is doomed to repeat an endless cycle. (Traditional view: The Three Kingdoms "Long united the Empire must divide. Long divided the Empire must unite". Mandate of Heaven. Nothing new under the sun.) If you believe your own history is a Tyranny from which you will escape through a linear, historical, march of progression (New view: Smash the four olds, CCP, historical determinism) then only the future will prove this as history. Either way, _you are still a prisoner of your history._ TL;DR Version The Paradox of History Are we trapped in History? History will tell or We are not trapped in History History will prove this

[@julietator3948]

That above comment is a bunch of hot bunk China not imperialist Yeah

[@wanghui562]

@@Taojas Technology may progress linearly, but human nature does not change. Therefore, history if not repeats, rhymes. History is cyclical. Those who believe otherwise act unwisely thinking they are wise, and soon disappear from history altogether.

[@mrbassman7184]

Thank you for another great video, and especially for your final piece of advice, which I think is hugely important. If I may suggest a video for everyone that touches the topic, look up the story "I, the pencil", preferably as retold by Milton Friedman. I was very fascinated by it the first time I heard it, and truer words are rarely spoken.

[@bernadettefinn1749]

As a former FM of Finland, I am curious what your thoughts are about the Evergrande financial crisis?

[@markgoicoechea7826]

I'd like here your view regarding France and Germany and there roles in the future the EU and NATO.

[@Bareego]

The best book I've read on China is "Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China"

[@victorchinedu7884]

Awesome

[@abduladheemal-tamimi2371]

Prof Stubb please tell me what is the real source of animosity bet. Russia and the West (particularly US)? Why didnt they contain Russia rather than indulging in an endless and destructive war at all levels. Dont you think that it would be much better and safer for the world to embark on a wise policy of mutual understanding and cooperation?

[@CA999]

I just subscribed this morning. It's contrarian to my thoughts, but it is not hysterical like much of the Western media and academia at the moment.

[@RobBCactive]

Bad choice of words, the correct western intelligence reports about Russia's invasion were described as hysterical.

[@hakansundstrombmwsweden7645]

Impressive,

[@villagedesigninstitute4135]

I want to study at STG!

[@chuckinchina6926]

This is great! There is a lot of historical animosity and mistrust between China and Russia that is often overlooked here in the west, for a long time they were barely on speaking terms.

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

Not really.

[@chuckinchina6926]

@@2KSnSLifestyle it's called the Sino-Soviet split

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

@@chuckinchina6926 It lasted only during the cold war. Since then the China Russia relationship has grown more and more.

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

@@chuckinchina6926 The Ukraine crisis will only benefit China at the expense of the West.

[@2KSnSLifestyle]

@@chuckinchina6926 On the contrary Europeans have been killing Europeans for centuries. Ukraine is just another one.

[@geoff9858]

Rana??? I can think of many more

[@davidr1781]

What could be used as a deterrent to the genocide of Uyghurs in East Turkestan?

[@zacharydavis4398]

15:00 - 15:50 - 16:11 … 💯real life💯 thank you for spending the time to create and share this collectively beneficial content my guy 🙏🏾 well done 👍🏾 16:22 - 17:02 in reference to scalability the i.e. Germans have had a shift of attitude in this ideal, but I believe it shouldn’t be thrown out. It just needs to be realistically recalibrated from perhaps the overly idealistic towards the realistic realization of what the data/etc has shown with i.e. that same way of thought that the Germans held with Russia until perhaps far too long into realizing the reality of Russia-Ukraine-EU 21st century reality

[@masterofall3963]

Some of the best sources of information out there, thanks 🙏

[@artmnk]

You need to make an episode on Ukraine.

[@Phaidrus]

The reference to Schmitt is interesting if only because China doesn‘t come to mind as a player who would seek an „Ausnahmezustand“ in order to be „souverän“.

[@victorjansson1415]

Great series. The war in Ukraine clearly undermines the development of the BRI and trade with Europe, at the displeasure of China.

[@tanujSE]

The great assembly line of three world and its production relations that all human full fill And it's good you people do analysis through economics intellectual cell

[@TheDalitis8]

Stubb is saying that western concessions towards China must continue so that Russia remains as isolated as possible and pressured to the maximum degree. But how long can the US afford to be granting these concessions and losing economic ground to China? This is the question. Let alone the issue of Taiwan.

[@helenegan1079]

In your dreams. China has to support politically Russia because China is the US next target. US will arm Ukraine 'to the last Ukranian standing' to destroy Russian at any price economic Sanctions as well. Russians prepared for this war over 8 years since Nato was not prepared to acknowledge Russias concerns of Nato expansion. Nato has blood on its hands in many countries like Serbia, Lybia bombing civilian cities. Sweden Finland have made a deal with Turkey with conditions which Turkey will accept them as members only when they are met. No guarantee that will happen and in the meantime the Fins and Swedes have exposed their countries into danger and cut off from supply of gas and oil coming from Russia. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. This guy reminds me a lot of Stolenburg. A puppet doing the bidding of his masters. Watched Stolenburg and his arrogance is there for all to see.

[@zacharydavis4398]

12:00 - Serbia, Hungary, etc all leave obvious traces to China and Russia, which only have become even more evident in this Russian-Ukraine conflict/invasion/etc.. not to mention where is i.e. Greece leaning towards aligning itself more towards in all this. It all seems obvious tbh, considering the OBVIOUS. Can Greece and the EU address this constructively in a strategically long term mutually beneficial manner to Greece and the EU/NATO/west/etc… idk 🤷🏾‍♂️ Are the issues within Greece all to blame or is there something the EU with good intentions can do to better the situation that has unfolded in modern history (Greece/EU/etc)

[@matthiasmai9074]

Interesting series my question is the topic of demografics in China and the influence of that fore the near and long term future. My understanding is that the 1 Child pollici brougt the Problem of gender in equaliti in scale. Whth the lag of woman which down the line will further decrese population. When the economic Model is relying in cheap labour in scale. This had to change to higher skilled labour. Which down the line means more educated people. Education means to be able to self learn and make up your mind on different toppics. Which in it selve could become a Problem of a totalitarian Regime. I would be interestet on a take of that.

[@cinpeace353]

China don't have 1 child policy anymore. I think it is 3 right now. Male to female ratio is 51:49. Number of university and college graduates is really high. In short term, there is no shortage of labor as lot of automation in China. China's retirement age is 60 for male, 55 for female civil servants and 50. Worst scenario is extending the retirement age for both male and female like the West.

[@cinpeace353]

China has a lot of higher skilled labour. In 2020, 8 million new university/college graduates. Higher education in China is the largest in the world. I think your idea of China is kind of 20 years behind.

[@jerryfoust3860]

What about China re Taiwan?

[@JohnDoe-fo7yi]

Wonderful analysis, however I would be curious to hear his comments on the challenges that China faces in the coming two to three decades, namely its demographic crisis as the most rapidly aging population in the world, the water shortage crisis, looming economic crisis in the form of the housing market, COVID management, and finally its recent drastic foreign policy change (namely, burning all of their political bridges in lieu of generating nationalism). Many economists look at the China as potentially being so much under threat that it may not emerge of the next super power on par with how the US was for decades.

[@burtonlee22]

Neutral and Opportunistic

[@rolfewert6154]

3. Question: China will fail due to is inner disaccords.

[@gurusandirasegaram1171]

I am not a historian when we were growing up in srilanka Influenced by British we don’t know anything about Eastern European history. My first foreign land was Moscow from there I traveled all Eastern Europe . Except Finland & ice land .

[@talideon]

We shouldn't decouple from China, but there's a strong argument that we should at least diversify. That, however, is easier said than done.

[@NayTunThein]

He said, in the last recommendation, "cooperations and interdependence is deterrence to confrontation". But everybody is blaming Germany for cooperations with Russia on energy sector. Isn't it double standard?

[@tsuikr]

Is this something new?

[@suisinghoraceho2403]

The commerce with Russian is very one dimensional. It is quite a different story with China.

[@NayTunThein]

@@suisinghoraceho2403 How come it is one directional, check out this report from EU... "In 2021, the total trade in goods between the EU and Russia amounted to €257.5 billion. The EU’s imports were worth €158.5 billion and were dominated by fuel and mining products. The EU’s exports in 2021 totalled €99.0 billion."

[@eprofessio]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[@kevinwilliams3694]

Interdependence is frequently used as a reason that wars won't happen. Does Interdependence really work or it is just an excuse for making terrible security decisions?

[@chrisstevenson4579]

makes war less likely but not impossible but in concert w collective security prevented ww3 SO FAR.

[@kevinwilliams3694]

@@chrisstevenson4579 How keen are the Germanys going to be on collective security if the lights go out?

[@chrisstevenson4579]

@@kevinwilliams3694 idk genius which do you prefer being conquered or being free?

[@MrGodItself]

Hello Alexander, wanted to ask but is China looking closely at Russia? It seems their zero-covid policy is back-firing massively and currently China is experiencing civil unrest + economical struggles due to debt problems. It seems they are pretty occupied at the moment. Also a lot of geopolitical forecasters predicted that China should collapse till mid century. But for a country as China, can it become a super power? I mean the whole China is reliant on imports if you blockade their Sea( what QUAD is perfectly, easily able to do) , China will starve and be lights off for them. I don't see a way in what geopolitical sense China can become super power. If US would be asbsent in all of this, sure, perhaps China could establish itself, but with US not letting any new super power forms- I do not see how it will achieve it's goal while being anti-US.

[@cinpeace353]

China is already referred as a superpower by lot of western media, what are you talking about?

[@MrGodItself]

​@@cinpeace353 what constitutes China as a real super power? If Russia is fighting Ukraine because of US hegemony of the world. How is China out of this? Look at the big picture next time.

[@annehersey9895]

I think what you said about Xi thinking 'See, Democracies are always so unstable, they don't work' which reinforces not just Xi and Chinese leaders thoughts but the thoughts of ALL or most governments led by Autocrats. It's been said Democracies come with baggage and it takes constant work to make them successful but it is worth it. So looking from the outside in, Democracies look like they don't work because all Autocrats see is protests, people publicly criticizing government or leaders which looks like chaos and instability whereas what is really happening is Democracy working by giving voice-without fear-to every single person. It is because these Autocrats who live in countries who NEVER had a true Democracy just do NOT understand what it truly is. I may hate what my neighbor says and stands for but I will fight anyone for my neighbor's right to say it. That is just not in China or Russia's mindset. AND as far as 'Friendship without Limits', that was definitely BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine. I think if the war had gone the way Russia thought then what China did or thought would be moot. I DO think that every month that Ukraine fights back and regains territory and the abominable way the Russian military has performed has suddenly added definite limits to their friendship. This was more than evident at the Shanghai Conference. Xi and India made it quite clear that they were not happy and did not like the way Russia was handling it. They made Putin stand alone waiting for them when it is usually the other way around. Instead of being the leader like usual, Putin was definitely made to look like the Junior Partner of the Alliance that he is now. Putin has no economy, no military and if he didn't have Nukes, Russia would be going backwards towards Third World status.

[@TheLivirus]

"...the common enemy that unites Russia and China is, for Russia more Europe and a little bit the US, whereas for China more the US" This surprises me considering the map Alexander presented in the previous lecture, depicting Russia surrounded by US from space, sea and NATO neighbors. At least in rhetoric, Russia seems only as concerned with Europe as US is able to exercise its influence there.

[@Rob_F8F]

If you look at a map of Asia Pacific, you will see China surrounded by South Korea, Japan, non-core Japanese islands, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and India. Australia is nearby and the presence of the US is everywhere. All these nations are either US allies or opponents to China. As for its border with Russia, let's just say that it's not the same as the US/Canada border.

[@TheLivirus]

@@Rob_F8F Yeah, my surprise was more that Russia sees Europe as a greater enemy than the US.

[@ferrariguy8278]

The only thing I think Stubb has wrong here, is the presumptive ascendency of China. We're a lot closer to peak China than peak USA. China, as we're seeing now, has such major demographic, financial, and economic structural headwinds in front of it, plus an unwillingness to do the transformations that would yield power to the populace (to foster consumption) because it would be at the cost of the CCP's power, that we'll see stalling, sputtering, and perhaps even regression from now on. How can the CCP, which is committed to it's own power, give away any of it's 50+% share of the economy back to the people, which would result in them having the power to demand more choice. Ideologically the do not have it in them, not without a full breakdown of the entire system (slowly, but eventually).

[@gerrytaylor6393]

Great info and speculation, Professor. Thank you, but, "a little instability in Europe is no bad thing"? Yikes!

[@maidapei4409]

as a viewer from china, my personal answer to Prof Stubb's 3 questions: 1) we don't support the war, but we don't hope Russia to lose either; 2) based on 1, we will not support Russia in military (i.e., support weapons) directly, but find a way to make sure Russia will not collapse. 3) to achieve the above 2 targets, China prefers to support Russia through economic channels. also, China supports Russia, not because we want to fight against Ukraine, EU or NATO. The reason is China will be in danger, and definitely be the next target of US, if Russia collapsed. Therefore, we need a strong neighbor: Russia, stands with us to face US.