Stirling and Turtledove vs Historical Determinism

[@ab5olut3zero95]

Since you brought up alternate histories, I would recommend Eric Flint’s 1632 series. Very fun alternate histories set in Europe of the 1630’s.

[@Tracer_Krieg]

Wasn't that the series where a Midwestern American town from the 80's got teleported back in time to the height of the Thirty Years War?

[@TheAngryXenite]

​​@@Tracer_KriegWest Virginian mining town from the turn of the millennium, not 80s Midwestern, but otherwise, yeah.

[@FarSeeker8]

@@ab5olut3zero95 I enjoyed that series but haven't had the time to keep up with it.

[@johnecoapollo7]

"They guessed right but they still guessed" Perfectly encapsulated 3 books/hundreds of years worth of Draka strategy right there.

[@kylejamesdalzell2839]

I have met both Turtledove and Sterling at science fiction conventions. It turns out they are very close friends, which makes sense to me. Turtledove's favorite saying seemed to be, "I write because I need to eat!"

[@andrewpytko4773]

What if the Race invaded during the Eurasian War in Stirling's books?

[@Detson404]

The Race would preferentially seek to settle Drakan lands since they’re hot.

[@dylans0630]

@@Detson404and how would that go? It sounds entertaining

[@andrewpytko4773]

@@dylans0630 That's what I want to know?

[@dylans0630]

@@andrewpytko4773 my thinking is, the Race land in Africa and are utterly horrified by the Drakas brutality. They were disgusted by the brutality of the Germans and Soviets in the books, imagine how they would react to these bloody barbarians who treated their own species like cattle or pets The Draka, by contrast, are not all that surprised by the existence of alien life. In fact they welcome the challenge that the lizards would bring, with their advanced technology and weapons

[@GabrielUngacta]

​@@dylans0630it would be akin to Russia in Ukraine right now.

[@GabrielUngacta]

One is an op over advanced superpower that would make the superpowers from 1984 envy their might. The other is an underdeveloped spacefaring "empire" that only controls three other worlds in a 10 lightyear radius.

[@TheAngryXenite]

I mean, you say that like that's not still very impressive. Keeping control of a planet orbiting a star 6 LYA means that you're always at best 6 years behind on any situation taking place on that world. Any message will be a minimum of 12 years before you get a reply, so by the time you get an update it's incredibly out of date. And they're doing this without FTL (takes them 20 years to travel 12 light years to Sol), so they can't use couriers to get around this and they can't send any sort of response in anything less than a decade. European colonial powers had much greater difficulties maintaining their settlements against hostile natives, at least during the early stages of colonization, and that was still less than a year round-trip in most cases.

[@GabrielUngacta]

@TheAngryXenite I guess that's what I like about Harry Turtledoves "Race", it's not a cliche galactic power like in other sci fi lores. They just run their own neighborhood.

[@MarkAndrewEdwards]

I like this video, nice job. I'll put my earned Draka hate to one side for a moment to observe that both series started with a conclusion. Turtledove was writing a story of how humanity came together and defeated an invading alien force and then worked to write the conditions that would allow that conclusion. Stirling did the same thing, he wanted the Draka to conquer Europe and then wrote the conditions that would allow that. This is of course different from real history: nobody knows the ending before they start a war, they just hope they do.

[@enocescalona]

god, i love SO MUCH the comparisons you are drawing. Reminds me of VS debates, but this is more of a contrast and cultural comparisons. I love this so much, you want to try something like this again with other fictional (maybe evil) military forces? I so would love to see what would you see with the Helghast and other gaming evil empires, like the Locusts from Gears of War.

[@neongenesisevangelion587]

This is why I love the genre of alternate history just as a general concept, one of my professors of history in college, always felt that the idea of historical determinism was one of the laziest pseudo,intellectual concepts ever conceived. Not only does it not leave much room for imagination, it’s severely underestimate the input of not just one particular individual, but millions of individuals. it also causes us to think certain things are inevitable, and to adapt, rather uninspired fatalistic mindsets that can be extremely dangerous to promoting social progress, as it forces people to assume progress will come or not come as it was fated to do so. For him, it erodes the value of human agency, and also leaves behind a very unrealistic mindset that leaves one to believe the best possible outcome will generally come to fruition just because that’s what most people would prefer. Even if no one puts any meaningful effort to bring said desired outcome to fruition. To him the concept promotes a mentality that is more inclined to people being complicit in the continuance of injustice, and more likely to thoughtlessly perpetuate pre-existing systems and status quos. Past the point of their continued relevance or legitimacy. The concept also generally is very poor at making long-term predictions as it tends to not factor in the law of unintended consequences, unforeseen variables and factors, acts of god, a.k.a., the random chaos of the universe, or even the rise of new movements that might make pre-existing trends no longer influential to the long term trajectory of mankind. To put simply his critiques of the concept is that it’s simply takes, for granted the timeline of events in which we live. And makes the incredibly naïve and dangerous assumption that the state of the world is a natural consequence of inevitable and unchangeable events.

[@horatio8213]

Yes but ignoring materialism and disparity in basic abilities never mark good leadership. You can't asume that one side will get their advance without paying proce for it. People building alternatives many times ignore simple rule, changing one element in their vision do not bring other significant changes. Idea that Hitler winning war with Stalin could won with Allied is not that obvieus. First occupation such wast territory would be problematic. Second thing, even getting to oilfields do not mean you get them undamgaded. History is not based on determinism, but many times disparity between sides made end of the conflict determined before first shoots are fired.

[@FarSeeker8]

​@@horatio8213After what both of you have said here, I would like to hear what you think about the claim quoted by President Obam, that the arc of history tends toward justice - given the events in Russia, China and multiple other nations over the past 124 yrs.

[@horatio8213]

@@FarSeeker8 Oh I never will support that " the arc of history tends toward justic". Material values are not the same as morals, having resources and industral power is not the same as living up to "justice". That is why understadanding real reason why Nazism and Comunism failed is not about morality.

[@keithdoherty7245]

I devoured all the Turtledove books back in the early 2000s. Recently I discovered that Audible has the World War series for free - so I've been rediscovering the war for Tosev 3. Its a fun time capsule to what was considered high-tech and futuristic in the late 90's. Great video!

[@jaegarviking3846]

I have a great question Feral Historian. You are inside of Alternative History Forum ? Because you are earning fame inside the community there.

[@feralhistorian]

I'm over there, but I haven't actually posted anything. It's a bit of a time commitment to jump into threads that have been ongoing for years.

[@stevemcallister4965]

I thoroughly enjoyed Turtledoves World War series bu I've never even heard of the Domination series, I'll be scaring those up for myself forthwith. I know I'm late to this video, but thanks for another fascinating discussion and for something to add to my reading list, as well.

[@PeteCourtier]

It shall be done. Cough😂

[@produccionesquino]

Again another great and insteresting video, for a second I thought it was a Race vs Draka video

[@ColonelHess]

Interesting thoughts as always! Wish I had a history teacher like you, the one I (almost) got thought the French Revolution was caused by the king taxing the rich rather then overall miss management and Frances over commitment to paying for the war of independence in America. That said, it makes me think of America paying for Ukrains war against Russia, also during a time of economic mismanagement, how the wheel turns.

[@seand.g423]

Nah, don't try to blanket him with a damn fluke, that's still a _horrifically_ tenure-brained take to be spreading.

[@victorkreig6089]

That's not even remotely close to accurate We paid for most of the war ourselves and the VAST majority of expenditure by De Lafayette NOT the French crown(as they didn't have anything to do with the revolution until most of it was over) came from contributions by nobles that Ben Franklin had literally cuckd, the only power that actually had a real expenditure cost was Spain which nobody remembers thanks to the WASP garbage that rewrote our history books in the 50's. French Revolution was caused by massive expenditures by the crown for decades on "public" projects that were only for the aristocracy

[@jasonthorpe7087]

I have read the Turtledove books. The whole world was series the middle and the last one. (and the american civil war books too. Oh and guns of the south) LOVE'D them only read the first Stirling one, awesome book I Love alternate history books. I truly enjoy you're takes on them as well. please keep it up. I learn lots. Thanks I live up in communist Canada I'm surprised that the Trudeau politburo has banned the A March Through Georgia? LOL

[@enigmacypher4486]

1. I loved Guns of the South. In my opinion, Turtledove's best work. 2. Marching Through Georgia is banned in Canada?

[@jasonthorpe7087]

@@enigmacypher4486 No Sorry I didn't say that properly. What I meant was that "I'm suprised it isn't" banned YET in Canada. I'm sorry for the mistake. My screw up. I'm sorry! Keep learning please (Like me)

[@Centurion101B3C]

Hm, How about originally written as Future history but now more like Alternate history by Niven & Pournelle's: Falkenberg's Mercenary line of of books/stories. Would be looking forward to you handling that.

[@feralhistorian]

I have something on Go Tell The Spartans / Prince of Sparta in progress right now. It's really just scraping together artwork to cut away to that's holding it up. I'll be working my towards The Mote in God's Eye from there.

[@Centurion101B3C]

@@feralhistorian Well, to fully grasp the intricacies of 'Go tell the Spartans/Prince of Sparta, one would have to go through the beginnings of the history path of Codominion, starting with Falkenberg's legion and/or West of Honor. Othertwise you would sorely miss out on important backgrounds and timelines. I read these when I was a 1970s Cold Warrior intel officer myself (it was almost mandatory reading in G2 MilIntel courses at the time and we got the 'unclean' and pre-classified pre-release manuscripts of these.). The concept of instead of Warsaw-Pact - NATO - UN global management structure, replaced with/by a Codominion of conflicting ideologies intrigued me then, as it does in the present, when this has not occurred. Your chosen entry-point into that particular universe, is in fact already in the lead-up to end-scenario of Codominion.

[@feralhistorian]

​@@Centurion101B3C Absolutely, the earlier stories give much-needed context. I'm just starting with a video on the Helot revolt on Sparta because it has some good insight into how 20th Century revolutionary movements worked. And I'll rarely pass up an excuse to poke at communists.

[@Centurion101B3C]

@@feralhistorian Hm, communism surely needs to be poked at, but is not the root-cause of our human predicament of being lousy poets where it comes to history. As they say, history does not repeat. It merely rhymes and thus it reads like an attrocious poem. I'll leave the current US elections out of scope, since my levels of disgust with that cannot be sufficiently or politely be registered, but the collective madness of totalitarianism in all its forms, appears to be a certain refrain in human existance. That also reflects in the literary art andexpressions thereof. Thank you for your assertion in handling this in the realm of SciFi. I'll be tracking your work with interest.

[@cattledog901]

Been binge watching your channel and it is excellent. I appreciate how you can take lessons from fiction and apply it to real life. I also like how you approach things from a grounded and rational military perspective. And the quote "Destiny is an illusion of hindsight" is great. I've been struggling to find a way to put this concept into words and that is just right.

[@stolman2197]

The lizarda sound like the aliens in David Weber's aliens in "out of the dark" and its sequel

[@darrenrenna]

Never heard the WWII story that Hitler was sick in the early phase of Operation Barbarossa and this caused the Generals to drift from Hitler's plan of action!

[@feralhistorian]

I first ran across that many years ago in "Hitler's War" by David Irving. Irving is a very controversial figure. I've found that he makes some good observations through examining documents no one else bothers with and asking the awkward questions, but he also can jump to conclusions and sometimes misrepresent sources. You have to dig and verify every claim. The sequence of events with Hitler being ill and the General's just doing what seemed best to them fits though.

[@darrenrenna]

@@feralhistorian That makes sense, I will lookup Irving with the caveat that he inspires controversy. If indeed Hitler was sick at that crucial juncture and this caused the Generals to prioritize Moscow against Hitler's preference to strangle the USSR"s resource base, this puts things in a different light. It helps explains Hitler's later proclivity to go against the advice of his Generals....aside from the (medications) Dr. Morell evidently had him on.

[@arKiteX3]

That seems like an unusual theory to me; from Norman Ohler's Blitzed: Drugs in the Third Reich--which I figure is perhaps even less reliable a source than Irving, but functions as a reasonable biography of Theo Morell--I had the impression that Hitler's military judgements and overruling his generals did far more harm than good to the German war effort. (In large part because Morell had Hitler on quite the concoction of drugs by this time.) But if I recall, Ohler's examples mostly focused on the African theater, not the eastern front. But I may be misremembering.

[@modelermark172]

Whatever else may be said about the Alternate History genre; a well-researched, well-written tale may be very thought-provoking, and spark many heated discussion threads - even if the main purpose of such threads is to deconstruct the author's fantastically detailed speculations bit-by-bit. The irony of someone 'hating' a book so much that they read it attentively several times through just to make their case for why they 'hate' it (and its author!) so much is nothing less than priceless. I once read a comment by S. M. Stirling where he said that he considers such criticism to be something of a compliment whenever critics go into such excruciating detail on why his stories and scenarios are 'impossible.' Me? I just like the works of Mr. Stirling and Mr. Turtledove because they're fun to read! Speaking of S. M. Stirling; please consider a future video on the scenario presented in, "The Peshawar Lancers." Count Vladimir Obromovich Ignatieff is probably the most 'fun' character that came from Mr. Stirling's erudite mind . . . . Thanks for making this! 497th Like.

[@feralhistorian]

On the subject of "hate readers" particularly in relation to Stirling's Draka books, it seems to me that part of it is that while they're very much dystopian literature, they're usually thought of primarily as alternate history, leading to an assumption that everything must be 100% plausible, even likely. But straight-up dystopian stories aren't held to that standard. I've never come across a long essay nitpicking the implausibility of Huxley's Brave New World, because that's not really the point. And this from someone that overthinks everything. I've intended to read Peshawar Lancers since it was first released, and yet somehow I never get to it. I will add it to the list right now.

[@modelermark172]

@@feralhistorian I tend to agree that a 'double-standard' that's being applied, here. But you've really got to like the way Mr. Stirling is so copacetic about it. More to the point - and to paraphrase Liberace - Mr. Stirling is being criticized and disrespected all the way to the bank . . . . I think you will enjoy "The Peshawar Lancers." I found it to be a very fun story as only S. M. Stirling can tell.

[@MatLinnett1]

I'd be intrigued to hear what you think of Ian Tregellis' "Milkweed Triptych and also his "Alchemy Wars Trilogy". He introduces elements of magic, but they're still intriguing visions of alternate histories.

[@BretHiggins]

I know Turtledove’s War series very well, but I never heard of Stirling’s Draka until now. If you have Audible, they are available to listen to as part of the subscription (no credits needed). I bumped them up my list, so I’ll get to experience them in a couple of months.

[@kevinbourke1847]

I got almost all of the worldwar books

[@josephthomas4797]

World war series was amazing, I need to check out the Draka books

[@aguspuig6615]

0:30 that shit brings me back to videos from usually very honest historical channels, that suddently start sounding way less articulate in a ''top 10 reasons why the Axis couldnt have won'' and then the first reason is ''Germany would never stay allied to the USSR because they fundamentally hated comunism'' and then they explain for a whole ten minutes how the riventrov molotov pact doesnt contradict that statement, but if germany had taken a few more years to betray that pact then that is actually impossible to imagine. Then every point has a wink wink underlying message of ''if you disagree youre just like a wierd cyrpto nazi'' and the comments are two or three top comments disagreeing and gtting dogpiled by everyone else.

[@creatoruser736]

Germany couldn't have taken a few more years to betray the pact because they even with the supplies they were getting from the USSR they were still using more supplies than they had. If they had waited even a year longer their fuel supplies would have been depleted and they'd have never made it close to Moscow.

[@gkossatzgmxde]

If you spoke German you might have heard the name Burkhard Heim, a super genius who visited Heisenberg in the early days of WW2 suggesting the building of a HYDROGEN bomb without the need for a Uran or Plutonium based core. That would have guaranteed German victory. This aspect of real history does not even happen in Man in the high castle.

[@feralhistorian]

I'm only passingly familiar with Heim. His theories are certainly interesting.

[@trevormillar1576]

Try Kingsley Amis's "The Alteration " set in s parallel world where there wax no Henry VIII, And Martin Luther became Pope. It's actually a satirical look ay Britain in 1976.

[@randycampbell6307]

An alt-history that uses the fall of the USSR is "The Anglo-American War" or "Festung Europa". Certainly NOT a utopia but not fully a dystopia either. A rather "human" outcome. Not a world as an American I'd want in but...

[@Varner410]

Whi wins, Draka or the Lizards?

[@feralhistorian]

If the Lizards act like they did in the Worldwar books, I'd bet on the Draka winning. But if they strike first with their full capability at the start of the invasion; Lizards.

[@Varner410]

I would say lizards in the end. The Drakka would win on the ground but the lizards would eventually liquidate the planet.

[@williamvorkosigan5151]

There remain myths to this day. At the time, the Royal Navy were engaged in discussion on the invasion of England and responded that they didn't know how they would come, but it would not be by sea. Had we lost the Battle of Britain, perhaps we would have lost the war but that does not follow that the UK would have been occupied. That very idea of Germany getting across the channel opposed by the greatest navy in the world, is for the birds.

[@PrinceKael14]

If the Germans had managed to establish air superiority over the channel, the Royal Navy would have been little more than scrap heaps in the making. As the War in the Pacific showed, the only way to defend ships from attacks in the air, is to have your own aircraft. If the Luftwaffe had managed to win the Battle of Britain (which is the thing that is most unlikely in this scenario given it well-known logistics and repair issues stemming from Nazi manufacturing ideology), then the Royal Navy wouldn't have been able to do jack shit.

[@Philistine47]

If you look more closely, The Lesson Of The Pacific War is that anti-ship strike is a domain for specialists: non-specialist air power (for example, the detachments of USAAF B-17s defending the Philippines and Midway) was woefully ineffective in attacking ships at sea. And the Luftwaffe in 1940 was critically short of units that specialized in naval attack - see the RN's evacuation of Dunkirk in the face of everything the Luftwaffe could throw at them. Even assuming they could somehow gain air superiority over the Channel (most plausibly by the intervention of Alien Space Bats), the Luftwaffe was ill-equipped and _very_ poorly trained to stave off RN interference with any attempted amphibious landing in England.

[@cynbartek9324]

Where is Hayden Christensen in this???

[@cyphermasq7870]

While mr. Turtledove seems like a nice man in person, my experience with him on twitter has been less than good. I asked a very well meaning question when he made a very partisan political post about when the last time he spoke with someone from the other camp in person and he just blocked me... I dont think that is a reflection on him personally. Im just some rando after all. But it did leave a bad taste in my mouth.

[@feralhistorian]

I try to give people the benefit of the doubt, I know sometimes _I_ just check out of political arguments if I've been over the same point dozens of times. But sometimes an author's Twitter presence puts me off reading their books when they get too insufferable. At this point I just don't follow authors because I want to judge their work on its own merits.

[@creatoruser736]

Even if Hitler had been able to pursue his original plan in 1941 of going south, they wouldn't have reached the Caucasus. For the same reasons as why they didn't reach Moscow; insufficient logistics and heavy losses. It was simply too far for them to go in only a few months, they didn't have enough fuel or transport to sustain an entire Army Group that far for that long. Plus the Soviet transport infrastructure in the south was even worse than usual, I think I heard somewhere there was one main paved road going through the whole of Ukraine that they were moving on. The Red Army still inflicted more losses than the Germans could take, to the point where front commanders said they were too depleted and exhausted to keep going. Winter made the ordeal more unpleasant but it wasn't what stopped the Axis.

[@chuckbridgeland6181]

Interesting series.

[@Churchmilitant67]

I think one of the things that doomed the German war effort, was that Hitler didn't have a winter contingency plan for 1941.

[@Egilhelmson]

That “Winter Contingency Plan” was the job of the German General Staff, not Hitler.

[@Churchmilitant67]

@@Egilhelmson if you bothered listening to the feral historian, Hitler directed the German offensive in Russia and helped planned the invasion, and he's right, the historical records back him up

[@djolds1]

Destiny is what we make of it.

[@Joe-jv5mm]

Draka using Game game theory to their advantage

[@taliaperkins1389]

3:37 I swear I recognize the nose of an F-86 . . .

[@feralhistorian]

Yep. F-86 intake, Lightning exhaust, and mostly F-32 in between.

[@craig.a.glesner]

Son of a bitch! I should have known someone else already figured it out but still happy that I too noted that the prettier the uniform the more like those are the bad guys. Because it seems only the bad guys care about looking good while the good guys just want to win and go home. Dangnabbit, still great minds and all that. :)

[@Egilhelmson]

He wasn’t the first, by a long run. That is almost as glib a statement as “No two countries with McDonald’s have ever gone to war” (disproven several times since the Fall of Communism in Russia).

[@JanJansen985]

0:55 You mean more evil twin lol You dont get to the top without being evil lol

[@nozzer2002]

S.M stirling.......yuk !