Stolen Bases are Going Crazy

[@ecashman]

This is a fantastic video. Your mix of statistics, enthusiasm, and subtle humor reminds me a bit of Secret Base, and I mean that as a major compliment.

[@schrobilgens]

Great video!

[@BradleyWoodrum]

Thanks!

[@pauljaworski9386]

the new stolen base numbers need an asterisk. the pitchers can't hold the runners any more. they get one throw to first.

[@ttmhog15]

Please don't make me wait 11 years for another video. This is so excellent

[@loganmanderfield1162]

Using analytics during the regular season makes more sense because it is based on averages, but using it during the playoffs is a bit more iffy.

[@jasoncollette5872]

Nice to have you back out in front of the curtain!

[@BradleyWoodrum]

Thank you! I'm excited to be back!

[@williamsmith35]

Agreed!

[@notstazzmann9429]

I love the Secret Base parity, 10/10

[@williamsmith3561]

Rickey Henderson would be proud of this analysis!

[@darrellludlow]

243 subscribers - wow, I had to do a double take because this is a very impressive video.

[@quiveringmoist7558]

Gee maybe making the bases bigger and the pick off rule change leads to more stolen bases

[@saulspeaks2557]

If you grew up in the 80s, we're not even back to normal yet. 😂

[@stuffbenlikes]

How about a stat like slugging percentage except stolen bases are added to the total bases part of the calculation?

[@brianmolloy9393]

But don't you want to "be profitable" and not just "break even"?

[@seraphsword]

I think one way to consider it is this: Would you rather buy one widget at $10 and sell if for $20 (i.e. 100% profit), or buy 100 widgets at $10 and sell them all for $17 apiece (70% profit)? If you're only willing to take the risk if you can get 100% back, you can wind up with less overall returns ($100 vs $700). It may be a clumsy comparison, but I think it's similar to the logic here, where taking more chances may lead to lower success per chance, but can still lead to more dollars in the bank (or runs on the scoreboard). Once you reach a volume where you're approaching break-even, you know you should scale back a bit. But at least you know what volume you can stay "profitable" at. Teams that are sitting at 80% success rate are likely leaving a lot of extra runs in their pockets, because they aren't taking enough chances.

[@brianmolloy9393]

​@@seraphsword I think that's mostly correct-ish but needs a deeper analysis... Not all situations are 65% success situations In poker, you dont draw for runner runner aces because its just not goign to happen. If you are simply "shooting" for 65% steal rate then there are situations where you are stealing with 90% chance of success and times you are stealing with 20% success rate And that is not to mention there are specific times when the spread btw getting caught and being successful will have a different run value. eg might be (and this is a total guess at a situation) first and third one out. Aaron Judge up and a bad runner is going to be a worse situation than Ohtani on first and Kiermeier up to bat, for example Also the expected run calcs should depend a lot on who is on deck and so forth, not simply being team wide For such an in depth analyis in the video and what sounds like someone on the inside, I would like to hear the answers to what seem to be fairly basic questions above... ...OR hear that those answers are proprietary

[@julianobrito5021]

nice video.

[@caseyapeterson]

WHAT YEAR IS IT

[@BradleyWoodrum]

😂

[@Raphael_246]

I'll be a hater and say this is why Shohei Ohtani shouldn't automatically win MVP just because he's the first player to 50-50. You have to weight the steals backwards to history

[@jayk6194]

If he only has the 50-50, I'd agree with you. But he's leading NL in HR, RBI, R, TB, OBP, SLG, OPS, and WAR. Also 2nd in avg.

[@silasrobertshaw8122]

What abput non-organic likes?

[@bkobara1683]

Im guessing you never played baseball past little league. Just a guess and I saw this because, pitchers arent allowed to hold runners. There is a pitch clock, so at some point the runner knows you have to throw a pitch or pick off. Also Pitchers are limited to pick off attempts. Bases are larger. Pitchers since the late 90s never slide step. All of these factors go into the more stealing bases. MLB just gave base runners 5 free steps to the next bag. If Rickey Henderson Vince Coleman or Delino Deshields or Juan Pierre or Kenny Lofton or Ichiro had this head start none of the records would be touched. You are leaving out huge bits of information that allow a player to "steal" more often. Also most pitchers dont know how to pick off because they were never taught by their "pitcihing" coach at drive line. Only to max o ut on every pitch and hurt arms and shorten careers haha

[@jord.an6123]

My guy, the dude literally told you he *worked* in baseball as an analysist and wrote for FanGraphs... I think that beats 'played past little-league' lmao I'm sure you make a good point or whatever! and it could have prompted a fun discussion! but i stopped reading at your misguidedly-patronising "Im guessing you..." I bet half of your points are covered in the video too! Seriously buddy. Be nice to people - *and actually watch the video* - if you want them to ever listen to your opinion or engage in dialogue. Its easy.

[@kenmasters2025]

it's too easy to steal bases now.