SUDAN | A New Civil War?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

The conflict in Sudan is grabbing a lot of international attention, and events are moving quickly. But do you think that this is the start of what could be yet another long and protracted civil war? The country certainly has a history of serious conflict. But can the fighting be stopped this time? And what is the role of outside actors in all this? As always, let me know your thoughts and comments below.

[@efrenyalung1348]

My impression was that if al-Burhan and his clique had let even transparently unfair but free elections happen and he managed to be the elected strongman it would've been far from ideal but it would've prevented the current chaos that is a result of the constant coups in the country's recent history.

[@mesamies123]

Sadly, it seems Civil War is inevitable. The competing Generals will rally their troops and supporters into violence; paramilitaries will terrorize the population; the outside world will intervene for only their own interests, disastrously so; and thousands if not millions of people will perish. I wish an immediate solution were possible. I hope that I'm wrong about all of this but an immediate solution. Thank you, Professor, for your excellent analysis--as always.

[@asirnewazkhan4172]

The chance of other countries intervening are high especially considering two facts; 1) it has a long Red Sea Coast which makes it an important point for trade and naval maneuvering 2) it has both the Blue and White Niles within it Any nation with a grudge against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel or Yemen it is a good staging ground for naval activity and the GERD issue makes Ethiopia and Egypt take specific interest in the country in order to project their interest. In addition, a multitude of other nations could see this as a means to capitalize on the situation. As the fight is prolonged the chances of intervention increase. Safe to say, some interventions at the micro level are most likely taking place through intelligence services.

[@alexanderkowal5710]

How significant is Russia and Wagner backing the paramilitary group, since their resources are currently fully invested in Ukraine? Surely the Sudanese government will win quickly with the backing of the US and AU? I know nothing

[@saint-miscreant]

i’m noticing a tendency in many mainstream media sources, especially the ones focusing on the situation in Khartoum and the ongoing (quasi) ceasefire to frame the situation as a warring-generals issue. very understandable given the acuteness of the civilian situation in Khartoum and the developing humanitarian crisis. but given the amount of regional geopolitics going on and the complexity of internal political dynamics, i think this risks cementing the issue as a 2-actor problem in peoples’ minds. which makes the outside-actor and underlying factors not discussed as much in the most visible coverage. also, like with the Tigray war, there’s the issue that the main domestic political actors can’t be easily designated as the ‘good’ and ‘bad’ side, so even when focusing on the obvious parts of the conflict it’s hard to convey + understand all the nuances. unfortunately I have a feeling that this is going to reinforce some peoples’ perception of African countries as homogenous, backwards / doomed to tribal infighting and heavily militarised… p.s. excellent point about the visibility + closeness effect of the Khartoum evacuations / civilian situation playing a major role in putting this conflict into the headlines. so far, at least of the biggest news media channels with a good presence on YT or podcasts, only Al Jazeera has done (more) in-depth explainer/analysis videos on the context and background issues of the conflict, which makes sense. but the BBC just released an explainer video so maybe we’ll see more in the coming weeks.

[@williamthebonquerer9181]

The South Kordofan war between sudan and the Nuba people is extremely overlooked, the brutal war criminal who was governor of the region has recently been freed from jail by the RSF.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Great point. Absolutely right. I will try to come back to this at some point. I also want to take a deeper dive on Darfur.

[@williamthebonquerer9181]

@@JamesKerLindsay I think perversely, the diplomatic effort to end the war in the south helped cause the war in darfur as the Fur people believed they too could achieve autonomy by taking up arms in a "rent seeking revolt". People assume wars in Africa are all separatist conflicts but the "SPLA North" (operating in south Kordofan) and "Movement for justice and equality" (operating in darfur) both do not want independence, stranger yet John Garang who was leader of the SPLA and South Sudan until his death in 2005 didn't want to achieve independence either. On a side note learning the names and acronyms for rebel groups in Africa is extremely tedious

[@MohamedShou]

@@williamthebonquerer9181 i mean I have to to learn English *another language* to interact with the world and thats more tedious then learning African rebel group's acronyms 🙄. Gosh you guys are whiny

[@williamthebonquerer9181]

​@@roselipton2113 John Garang died in a helicopter crash not an airplane and the gold mines are in the Nubian shield in the east of Sudan. I don't have time for conspiracy theorists

[@MrAmhara]

@@JamesKerLindsay The general ( Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo) in charge of the Rapid Reaction Force is from Darfur. The Darfur conflict and tribal rivalries among Arabs and some of them are unwilling to share power with Africans. Basically this conflict is more about identity politics than anything else.

[@jeje725]

Thank you prof. James, as a Sudanese I appreciate your efforts and time to put some light on what’s happening in Sudan.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. It is such a tragic situation. I hope the fighting can be stopped soon and efforts can resume to put a civilian-led government in place. The country really deserves a break.

[@smailodrives]

Hi Prof James, As a Sudanese myself I really appreciate the amount of work you put into your videos ,this one in particular. There's more into this conflict which I don't think it's apparent to foreign observants . This is a second week of a conflict which anticipated to go much longer due to the stands of both generals as well as other groups will potentially join at some stage of this conflict .

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. Sudan is such an interesting country, but with such a difficult history. One of my best friends at university was South Sudanese and I remember him telling me about the war. But the final agreement between North and South was an amazing landmark peace settlement in international relations. I really hope that this current fighting doesn’t escalate further, but it is certainly looking very worrying. Do you still have family there? If so, I hope they are all OK.

[@Nedula007]

It boils down to morons playing house.

[@Spacemongerr]

I am not sure it can be called a civil war, as the civilian population is not supporting either of the fighting sides, but rather waiting for them to drain their own power so the Sudanese revolution to democracy can resume. Anyway, good video as usual.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. Really great point! I would say that this would fit the definition of a civil war, as opposed to an interstate war. But you are absolutely right to say that this doesn't seem to be a civil war in the 'usual' sense.

[@khairulhelmihashim2510]

if the fighting continue for a long period, civilians may forced to take sides to avoid harassments and intimidations.

[@mohamedelamin7651]

Its true we Sudanese people don’t support neither Burhan nor Hemedti, but most people really don’t like the RSF and are generally much more supportive of the Army given that it is the only functioning (barely) institution in Sudan.

[@211_junub]

Just a clarification, the people in the North are not 70% Arabs. Now while they may have certain tribes that are actually of Arab origin, the majority are actually just Arabised Africans. It was one of the major concerns for us in the South, as we are not Arabs but they tried to Arabise us. They chose an Arab identity which doesnt make any sense to be honest. And now those very Arab nations they chose to identify with are actually fuelling the conflict, by supporting opposing sides. Youve got the UAE and Libya supporting the RSF. Whilst Egypt and Saudis support the army. Then of course Wagner group also supports the RSF as they protected Wagners interests in Sudan. This conflict if not contained is about to get very messy.

[@le_draffar5370]

You are Sudanese, I have a question do the people of Darfur feel entirely Sudanese compared to other "ethnic groups in the country? If not, is the discrimination exaggerated or not? I'm afraid there is a partion of the country I may be mistaken but Hemeti actually hails from Darefur strange by coincidence.

[@211_junub]

@Le_ Draffar Well the people of Darfur were technically apart of their own Sultanate but were lumped into Sudan by the British. And yeah the discrimination against the people of Darfur is not exaggerated, the government has been extremely brutal towards them. Even in the capital of Khartoum, the "Arabs" living their mistreat the people of darfur.

[@211_junub]

@@le_draffar5370 The government of Sudan has wronged them so much, so I don't blame the people of Darfur for not feeling Sudanese. We went through the same thing, being treated 2nd class in your own country!

[@le_draffar5370]

@@211_junubAnd for so many people in Darfur who also speak Arabic and are Muslims, it's still paradoxical, unlike in South Sudan. I am not an expert anthropologist but at the phenotypic level I have seen guys resembling certain non-Arab Darfur tribes within the Sudanese power. Ok thank you very much for these answers. Let peace return to Sudan.

[@211_junub]

@@le_draffar5370 That's what I meant when I said it's very odd for them to claim being "Arabs" when many people have indistinguishable features. It's all a game for the elite, stoke ethnic divisions for their own benefit. I hope peace returns also.

[@joehegholz1237]

Concise, erudite and utterly informative. A lovely gift for our collective understanding.

[@tyronejoshua1613]

It is sad to see Sudan in such situations after all the people of Sudan sacrificed to get rid of al-Bashir

[@francisnwadike9505]

nope the all agreed to fight the south Sudan chirstian now Karam has fought them no peace for the wicked

[@followingjesustv2846]

@@francisnwadike9505 that’s right

[@IAmTheOnlyLucas]

Great video Professor, really thorough overview of Sudan from early modernity through to today! I've got my admission interview for master's studies in international affairs coming up next week, excited! The greater Sahara and Sahel regions are incredibly interesting and overlooked regions in the world. I was surprised to read that the RSF had coordinated with the US and other foreign diplomatic missions on their evacuation from Khartoum. To me, it signals that both the RSF and Sudanese Army are aiming to curry international legitimacy. This contrasts starkly with the disastrous extraction from Kabul, where the Taliban seemed to honor the non-aggression pact with the coalition, but IS!S-K attacked US forces, to show themselves as true j!hadis. On the topic of Sudan perhaps being a new international battleground, one could certainly make that case. Egypt and several Western govts have communicated their ideas and goals with al-Burhan, especially in paving the way to democracy and civilian rule. On the other hands, reports that Hemedti is allied with Iran and Russia illustrate the sides forming in this 21st century cold war. Perhaps also, the West would not like to be duped again along the Nile, where Russia via Wagner has come ahead in Mali, the CAR, Burkina Faso, etc.

[@kennwill7810]

Whatever your Understanding, there is no any issue of democracy, from the side of Western countries, much less Egyptians. The only Interest of the Cia/Pentagon in Africa is their Political Influence due to access to resources and much more. One of the Main game forms is, to keep African countries especially Egypt Related to Sudan, to keep the country un civilized and undemocratic. So, the Egyptians have the power to decide, as well in Economics, and for this purpose, they need the country unpeacefully. There is never an interest in peace in the region. Because? if there is democracy and prosperity, these ancient countries like Sudan, which are the Power, real Power, economically as well in knowledge will take their Original Place and Concers those Arab Decendent like Egyptians which are mainly Dependent on Sudan's Economy! or sub Saharan countries. Economy. like mainly Water.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Lucas. You are right, the RSF is seemingly playing ball with the West for the moment. Interestingly, if you look at Dagalo's Twitter feed, he is obviously paying for some very serious marketing. It is very polished. This is someone who clearly believes that he has a political future. He will no doubt be trying to build ties with outside actors. But I am not sure his role in Darfur can be so easily overlooked by the US and EU. Maybe that's why he sees it as easier to work with Russia. And really good luck with the interview. Do let me know how you get on!

[@kennwill7810]

@@JamesKerLindsay us a Eu will never overloock by any condition Dagaloes status of Darfur as it is set by thoese old colonial power Faschists coauntries gov. Becouse always what they say is a lay. A lay will only end when dagalo becames to be traiter as al Burhan or enemy of african and that will not happen. Dagalo will not change and problem with Eu and all Fascism will be solved as new World order is merging. End!!!!!

[@Todd.B]

Thanks for the summary Prof, I've been waiting for this video. It makes a lot more sense now. Have a great weekend.

[@gastonakouete6650]

Hi Professor, I studied Conflict Analysis and Resolution, and I do appreciate your analysis and understanding of the conflicting situation in Sudan. Unlike the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine (Proxy War) among actors, the conflict in Sudan is between the Ruling Government and RFS both fighting to take control and rule in Sudan. My fear is when either party in conflict will have the backing of Russia, that is where the West or NATO Allies will also come in to support the other party. If this happens, this political conflict will be difficult to be resolved soon

[@雷-t3j]

Russia and Ukraine is not a proxy war. Russia invaded Ukraine because Putin believes Ukraine is not a country and that Russia has a god-given right to invade and subjugate them. Ukraine fights back for their freedom and independence. At the core of most "proxy wars" there is usually a legitimate struggle, often against imperialism, that outside parties support to gain allies. The only case of a completely proxy war from the cold war to modernity is the Korean war imo. In Ukraine, Russia does believe they are fighting the west and NATO to some extent, and Eastern Europe and the West could be described as using it as a proxy war, but it is a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, not between Russia and the West. But you are right, that if one side chooses to embrace Moscow then the other will probably gain western support. I hope that does not happen.

[@peterkops6431]

Covering the actually important stuff few others bother with. Always greatly appreciated Prof👍🏻👍🏻

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Peter. I hoped that taking a deep dive into the background of the situation might be useful. Obviously, there's a lot of news coverage out there. But I wanted to see if I could pull the different strands together and show how events at the moment fit into the broader and longer sweep of Sudan's tragic history of conflict and military involvement in politics.

[@peterkops6431]

@@JamesKerLindsay The historical aspect has to be examined in order to understand the present. This is what you do so well in all your releases. Of course, having such a rich academic background allows you to bring ideas to the table that many simply can’t. I appreciate my weekly mini lectures mate!

[@AbdirizakAden-xx1js]

Thank you professor for your time and input

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@r2sav175]

Was really eager for this video to drop for the last few days🤩

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. I wasn't sure whether to do it, as I know there has been so much news coverage. But I hope that it is helpful and adds a little more historical context to what is happening.

[@Mrgunsngear]

Thanks

[@sufthegoat]

Been waiting thank you!

[@TheLocalLt]

Thank you for taking a look at this ongoing situation professor. Certainly thinking of the civilians caught in the middle of this. The geopolitical side of this is quite interesting; it seems that right now the chaos is still settling and the implications are somewhat unclear. I would imagine that the longer this goes on, the more geopolitics would become a factor. If the conflict becomes drawn out, I am also interested to see what kind of political legitimacy the RSF commander tries to give himself: • Does he set up some sort of alternative Sudanese government, like we see with Haftar in Libya (who has of course himself recently broken away from Tripoli again, though so far without renewed fighting) • Does he declare himself the rightful claimant to the presidency of the existing Sudanese government? • Does he declare the areas of Darfur he controls to be independent, presumably with himself as its leader? • Perhaps none of the above, either doing something completely different or maybe even nothing at all. Anyway that’s all about the formality and diplomacy, I’m sure the only thing that matters to the civilians caught up in this mess is no doubt finding some way to end the fighting, preferably without either of the would-be generalissimos. In any case we can only hope that somehow a way is found to stop this war sooner than later. Thanks again professor for taking a look at a grim but very timely topic.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much, as ever, LocalLt. I didn't really go into the geopolitical aspects of the situation, but I would like to return to this. It is potentially very interesting, especially when weighed against Dagolo's ambitions. As you say, it could seemingly go in several different directions.

[@notdpanda9525]

Hi professor, i am curious about your opinion on things like the demographic future of countries and how that effect the development in international relations. Especially about people like Peter Zeihan, who argue geography and demographics determine the future of all countries.

[@ariefferdaus31]

Thank you so much for the video and for enlightening us on the topic, James! A very deep and comprehensive analysis as usual! In Malaysia, the topic got highlighted when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced its mission to evacuate Malaysian citizens who were trapped in Sudan out from the conflict. Fortunately, the mission was a success in collaboration with Saudi Arabia. A number of Malaysian citizens and civilians from other nationalities were brought back. I just really hope and can only pray that the situation in Sudan can be resolved peacefully. It is immensely tragic indeed for the Sudanese people.

[@kalMHe]

I can not thank you enough! I am not that interested in politics but your way of explaining things is really what made me watch this video!

[@omaali2898]

I hope people in Sudan in peace and bright future. Janjawee became RSF very strange. My understanding of problems are not just two military leaders fighting themselves out for power. It was bad idea to created RSF to put down Danfur uprising and gave an independent special states in the first place. If that happened whatever the reason, it was a mistake that RSF shouldn't integrated Sudan military quickly.

[@khairulhelmihashim2510]

in many war-torn countries, irregulars were supported and integrated with existing military command to ensure political support and awarding the loyalists with positions in government,

[@sofou4683]

Finally a serious take on this conflict. All i could find since the news broke out were some random news videos.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you. I hoped I could add something useful to the news coverage of the fighting.

[@kadose]

Thank you Professor for your excellent appraisal of the history of Sudan as well as the current state of affairs. Liked and subscribed.

[@manalgaml6968]

فال الله ولافالك انتم سبب مانحن فيه كان ممكن تاخدو دهب والبترول نستفيد منكم وتفيدونا بدون حروب لكن حسبنا الله ونعم الوكيل فى كل الدول الاجنبية الطماعة فى خيراتنا هذا رأى بكل بساطة انا مجرد مواطنة عادية لاافهم فى السياسة كل ما افهمه الخواجات سبب الحروب لنهبنا وسرقتنا

[@kadose]

@@manalgaml6968 قد يكون للإنجليز دور تاريخي و لكن ومنذ الإستقلال العسكر كانو سبب الدمار، و حالياً العسكر هم من يخوضون الحرب داخل العاصمة. لازم نكون موضوعيين شوية نحن كمان و نعترف بأخطأنا و ما نحمل كل المسؤلية للإنجليز، الناس ديل ليهم قريب سبعين سنة مرقوا من البلد

[@Trofusky]

Another great video professor. I like the note you left it with around the military in politics. I’ve always found the topic fascinating, military takeover, due to its destructive nature and seemingly endlessly bad results for nations where it’s occurred. How do you feel about that assessment? Are there any examples of military takeovers that led to a successful civilian government long-term? Myanmar, Peru, most of the Sahara, and Chile all seem like good arguments against Military Juntas. Edit: I should addend this to say that of course some countries have periods of military control and move back to stable democracy, but it’s an exception, not the rule. Additionally, it’s rare to see a military take power, succeed in tackling whatever goal it set out for, and willingly giving up power and allowing civilians to take back over entirely.

[@asirnewazkhan4172]

I guess Bangladesh might be a good example. We had a military government between 1982 and 1990. We now have a civilian government with elections and good economic growth. Lets not bring up the quality of the elections please.

[@ronald3836]

Taiwan, Turkey, Greece, Egypt, lots of countries were at some point ruled by its military. Isn't Chili doing relatively well?

[@Trofusky]

@@ronald3836 Taiwan started as a military government, yes, I wouldn’t say a coup took place there per se but with Taiwan’s democracy now I see what you mean. Turkey is an odd case since Ataturk basically said the military should step in if the democracy was ever in peril, and Turkey’s democracy is hanging by a thread nowadays. Chile was a military coup, which was horribly destructive and is certainly not remembered fondly. Its current state as a relatively healthy democracy comes largely from the counter-Pinochet movement that took over after his government fell. I don’t know enough about Greece to comment on it, to be honest.

[@ronald3836]

@@Trofusky for sure the Pinochet regime was bad in every respect, but In the end Chili recovered, so it is not "endlessly" bad. But I agree that Chili is not an example of a military government doing any good.

[@johnhughes2124]

I think that South Korea's made a pretty good fist of transitioning from being a military dictatorship to civilian rule

[@felipedaffunchio137]

Excelent video James!! It´s great to see such a professional channel about geopolitical news. Could you talk about the Falklands issue??? Grettings from Argentina!

[@雷-t3j]

he already has

[@joehegholz1237]

I found it both useful and sad: once again the spectre of a protracted conflict destabilises yet another slice of our planet's surface. But thank you all the same.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks, Joe. I completely agree. Let's hope this one can be stopped before it goes much further.

[@erik5958]

Thank you!!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Erik! 🙏🏻 That is incredibly kind of you. Have a great rest of the weekend. All my very best wishes, James

[@andrewtaban2712]

Very insightful prof.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. I hope I added a bit more to the news coverage.

[@seamusduffy983]

The modern conflict in Sudan is, and has been since the overthrow of al-Bashir, essentially a dispute between the traditional Khartoum elite and the provincial Arabs.

[@Pavlos_Charalambous]

Ah factions within the armed forces becoming so powerful that start fighting for the throne A story older than time

[@user-wr4yl7tx3w]

By the way great topic. Good to see context that major media can’t provide.

[@paramahansayogananda6719]

Thank you very much!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you! I hope it helped. I know there has been a lot of international coverage., but I thought it would be useful to try to set the current developments into a broader historical context of Sudan's modern history.

[@aaronjones8905]

What is peculiar about this conflict is that the RSF is thought to be guilty of the massacre committed during the initial protests which lead to al Bashir's removal. Yet, it is the RSF which claims to be seeking civilian rule. In a panel discussion hosted by Al Jazeera, Sudanese opposition forces blamed both sides for seeking self-enrichment, and it was alleged that Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood are leading the military. There are further allegations that other Arab nations are backing opposing sides depending on their own style of government. Egypt is allegedly supporting the military, while the UAE is supposedly behind the RSF. Furthermore, the Sudanese budget is largely dominated by the military which maintains economic interests across the country - much like in Egypt. It seems highly unlikely that a democratic administration will come out of this conflict.

[@sedric31]

Oh woow oh woow 😮 the absolute best video about this conflict on the internet

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much! I really appreciate it enormously. I wasn’t sure whether to make it as I know there is so much out there. So it is really great to hear that you found it useful.

[@rejvaik00]

I'm starting to wonder if Sudan will split into north, east, and west Sudan

[@rryhuu]

A wonderful exposition on the history and politics of Sudan since pre British period. Thanks

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much. I know the situation in Sudan is getting a lot of media coverage, but I hoped looking at how the current developments fit into the country's tragic modern history might be useful.

[@peterkops6431]

Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻

[@yuusufgaras]

Hi Prof James, thanks for your remarkable video and input about the Sudan crises. Sudan now is the edge of the pro long civil war. according to the current situation since the both sides and as generally Military high rang are more wealthier then other Sudans. No doubt, they will use any forces or weapons one to another.

[@samuellanghus1455]

Excellent video. Do you consider the Yemeni civil war to have similar levels of foreign involvement and press since it borders the Bab al-Mandab Strait alike Sudan? Or would you say that since Djibouti contains a considerable amount of foreign-operated military bases, the conflict is seen as less jeopardizing to international trade and less sensational in news by that standard alone?

[@roberthoyt7921]

Could the third Sudanese civil war go beyond the power struggles within the armed forces if it keeps gaining traction?

[@bernardoohigginsvevo2974]

Do you think this conflict could tie into the tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Renaissance Dam?

[@KingK2205]

It likely already has or it will soon.

[@bernardoohigginsvevo2974]

@mt5661 He has a level-headed approach when it comes to discussing the legacies of colonialism. There comes a point in time when you can’t blame all your country’s problems on the imperial power it was once subject to. Dr. Ker-Lindsay does a good job balancing the aftershocks of imperialism with contemporary local incompetence.

[@DarlingtonFEgbu]

Please Prof. James Ker-Lindsay, is it possible to have a copy of this wonderful write-up. What you just narrated is exactly what is happening in Nigeria as we speak.

[@jamshaidmushtaq1811]

Do you believe the Nile River's flow near Khartum could be disturbed by the conflict? I am sure Egypt and Ethiopia will be watching this with concern.

[@brahimbmzo490]

The professor gave a great explanation of the Sudanese politic and the geopolitics of the region. But I don't agree that 70% of Sudanese are Arabs. If speaking Arabs makes you an Arab then yes, but genetically speaking there are no Arabs in Sudan apart from the Rashayida tribe. Sudanese are of mixed ethnicities, even the so called-arabs have their own Nilo-Saharan and Afri-Asiatic dialects.

[@garanglester]

Great video.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much!

[@leaveme3559]

Prof why do you think most African states go for unitary state structures instead of proper federal one?......I remember similar thing being the reason for the instability in Kongo as well

[@sulaak]

African political elites are dictators, and a unitary system of government provides control over all mineral resources; since African countries are not industrialized, access to mineral resources is the fuel that runs the government and supports corruption. Nigeria has a federal system of government but actually practices a unitary system of government because the Northern Nigeria political elites, need access to the sea and the oil wealth in the south

[@peterkops6431]

Just revisited this given events in Sudan today 29/5/23. Army vs paramilitary has broken out in some really big skirmishes. Seems there may well be another civil war as feared.

[@sulaak]

70% of Sudanese are not Arab. 70% speak Arabic, but the majority of them are ethnically not Arabs

[@Khotsa]

He meant Arab wannabes

[@211_junub]

Thank you, that was one of the biggest reasons why we fought! They chose an Arab identity over African. Now Sudan does have Arab tribes but the rest are just Arabised Africans

[@bilic8094]

Those dudes from Sudan are tall.

[@211_junub]

@@bilic8094 South Sudanese* are tall

[@Eastwyrm]

As an avid viewer of your excellent content, I thought I might let you know that when you say “informed” in your intro it can easily sound like “informal.” I’m not sure that that’s your intent

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Haha! Thanks. We wouldn't want anyone to get that impression. :-)

[@vizibilibende5194]

Sudan is our brothers 🇸🇩👑🇹🇷☝🏻😎

[@mrcocoloco7200]

Good Luck Sudan 🇸🇩

[@mugikuyu9403]

@@mrcocoloco7200 Bad luck Sudan 😂 Having an Arab or Berber for a brother is a curse!

[@mrcocoloco7200]

@@mugikuyu9403 Cringe

[@mugikuyu9403]

@@mrcocoloco7200 I agree.

[@vizibilibende5194]

If Turkish soldiers come, prosperity and peace will come to that region..... There was a civil war in Cyprus in 1974. Turkish soldiers came and the civil war ended There was a civil war in Libya in 2011, there is no war now There was a civil war in Syria in 2010, there is no war now

[@Zapp77777]

🇨🇫 T.I.A. 🇪🇬 🇹🇩 THIS 🇱🇾 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 IS 🇸🇩 🇸🇸 😢 *AFRICA* 😢

[@manooxi327]

Tnx

[@fawaz.bagadi]

هنالك معلومة خاطئة تتعلق بتكوين قوات الدعم السريع، فهي ليست لها علاقة بالجنجويد او ارتباط ولكن داعمين الجيش يروجون لذلك لمجرد انهم قبائل عربية ومن نفس اعراق الجنجويد

[@alburooj7904]

Thanks, Prof., for your well researched discussion. It's as expected. I think the two generals should listen to the voice of reason to give peace a chance in already bad situations.[I personally found it very disheartening that the war started in the Holy month of Ramadan, this is not to mean that it's should happen in other months] It's very unfortunate how the inordinate ambition of two people is jeopardising the peace, tranquillity, and progress of millions. Everyone is leaving the country, literally saying 'you people can kill yourselves'. The vulnerable poor women and children are at the receiving end. They should immediately accept negotiations because no matter how long it takes for the rancrous situation, that will be the ultimate and let them also reflect on the fact that posterity will give them the judgement they deserve.

[@timsmith2279]

Two generals are friends working together, this seems a deliberate plan to create refugee crisis as an excuse to send Sudanese as asylum seekers to Europe where they are neither wanted nor needed, cause nothing but turmoil and community tension ?

[@ivanwaako2525]

Am from Uganda and many soldiers from Uganda died fighting khartoum forces on the side of SPLA. it is perhaps selfish for me to say that with the independence of south Sudan, we got a much needed buffer against the khartoum forces. that said, i think Sudan needs a strongman to hold it together. then after a decade or so, it can gradually become democratic. that overthrow of bashir was too abrupt. plus the current geopolitical environment in the world is not good. Russia-US tensions. does the overthrow of Said Barre of Somalia in 1991 ring a bell?

[@mamie6820]

You hit the nail on the head regarding Sudan’s vast oil and gold resources and also its strategic position in the Suez. But is it just an internal crisis between two generals and are the USA, EU, China and Russia just “watching” the situation.

[@雷-t3j]

I don't really think the USA, EU, and China have that much to gain from the situation compared to the cost it would bring, and I don't think Russia has the resources to spend on it.

[@user-wr4yl7tx3w]

Are the two militaries weighed toward certain tribes?

[@ola-oodua2499]

Looks like. One is based in the North-East area around Kartoum who feel they are original arabs. The other faction mostly spring from the Western section of the country with darker skin and more african, less 'arab'... around the Darfur region... regarded as inferior... even if they mostly share the same religion. South Sudan were smart to break out from such a vile union. Same too urgently needs to happen in Nigeria.

[@waynesampson7185]

Resources is a bane to African and Arab states. It's always the centre of conflicts upon closer inspection.

[@sulaak]

Southern African countries have done well with their resources.

[@mugikuyu9403]

@@sulaak No we haven’t. We have major ethnic issues that we can’t solve any time soon.

[@ola-oodua2499]

And religion.

[@NikolaHD]

Very well explained as always. Its incredible how two people can ruin the future of milions. Do you think that Africa will ever reach development of a western world? It seems like there is a conflict after conflict. What do you think is the main problem in african countries ?

[@mugikuyu9403]

The problem is not complicated to understand if you look at European history. Identity is the problem. Western European countries took centuries to work out the identities of their countries, often requiring that entire towns and villages either accept a particular language and ethnic identity or that they move in a population swap. Most of this was not peaceful btw, but involved many many wars. In Africa the identity issues are being solved now because Western European empires had suppressed them during their governance of the region. The end of colonialism saw a return of ethnic identity issues instead of a United front against imperialists. In many countries the issues could be solved by creating ethno-states but this solution is almost never explored for some reason.

[@雷-t3j]

@@mugikuyu9403 yes, because if you actually look at history you'll find that ethno-states are tremendously violent and do not actually achieve progress. Eastern Europe was just as nationalist as the west, but they didn't achieve the same level of development in the age of nations. If Africa does take the ethnic genocide approach to creating nations there is no guarantee they will become rich, but they will do a lot of damage to everyone. Plus most African ethno-states would not be geographically viable. Compared to ethno-states, pan-africanism looks extremely viable

[@EdMcF1]

Great summary, the only important thing missed out was the influence of Prester John.

[@5koKirilov]

Happy birthday, boy! @James

[@oraz.]

These are familiar patterns that have been going on all my life and long before I was born.

[@hariprasadradhakrishnan8967]

Sri. You gather news from BBC???

[@vladsufariu5994]

Sudan history in a nutshel: Coup Coup Coup Civil war Coup Coup Coup Coup Civil war Civil war Coup Coup Coup Civil war 👍🏻

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Yes. Pretty much. But the coup king is probably Syria, which I covered in another video. Its first 25 years were pretty much non-stop military takeovers.

[@charlessuharto3398]

The leader of sudan are crazy leader so the war also crazy war..... war not for the people to be better but war for crazy leader, finally sudanist to be crazy people together....

[@smiles9882]

I know in a literal sense, the war is a "civil war," but I wouldn't really call it such as neither the paramilitary of the military have the people's support. With the people rooting for them to cause eachothers downfall or weakening to resume the sudanese revolution. As well as the fact that most of the paramilitary isn't even Sudanese but mercenaries hired from foreign countries. There's even a saying going around that roughly translates to "The deaths are in sudan, but the funerals are in Niger"

[@modder15]

I don't think this war will be as long or as protracted as people think. The competing factions don't have the near the same level of international support. I think the RSF only really has military support from Eritrea and some warlords. The main army is backed by Egypt and Saudis and they're the ones that have the air power.

[@bernardoohigginsvevo2974]

I hope you're right.

[@KingK2205]

It will end later this year or next year.

[@mugikuyu9403]

I hope you’re wrong. I hope for a long protracted war that causes the country to go deeper and deeper into dept while its people suffer. It’s a country where 70% of the population are descended from dogs.

[@alex4863]

For the first time, war popping off left and right with the addition of the US not actually invading a sovereign state in this instance I find it astonishing.

[@patrickayooladokun]

Sad!

[@diomuda7903]

Honestly, only two nations can actually influence the outcome of this war: Egypt and Saudi Arabia. It is impossible for African nations like Ethiopia or South Sudan to ever influence the Sudanese generals. It's the Arabs who have to step for the issue.

[@Tomorrow32]

Take that, Egypt. Everybody knows that The Hala’ib Triangle belongs to Sudan.

[@alhashmy1310]

You did not mention the Emirati-Israeli support for Hamidati, and why did Saudi Arabia and Egypt stand with Al-Burhan’s government? There are also weapons seen in the battle owned by Hamidati’s forces, such as the Iranian Tofan weapon, and this is a weapon owned by the Emirates that was transferred to Sudan to support Hamidati through Haftar.

[@kelvinbenny2001]

Will Darfurian rebels ally with Dagolo ??

[@cholakuany5989]

My people, please, do not hurt our people. You and I know that money and control are the reasons why Humans hurt each other. Oh my people, why? I can feel the pain because I'm a Lost Boy of Sudan now living in Canada. _My people,do you know the pain of being lost and scattered across the Globe...in the United States of America, Australia and Canada took a few, including me. _My people, please, stop the War, please.

[@w91w91]

تحليل 👍🏻 ولكن مالي : فيها قوة فرنسية تشاد و اثيوبيا : فيها قوة امريكية كينيا : مبشرين نصارى ليبيا : حفتر ( رجل امريكا )

[@brianfoley4328]

As always...just the best analysis. I disagree that the latest (in a long running series) Civil War isn't partially driven by ethic tensions. An interesting aspect of many African militaries is the clan/ethnicity divisions. Many African military units are composed based on the ethnicity of its members. This is institutionalized Tribalism. I define Tribalism as identity politics where a person's origin (Tribe) is more important than their nationalism. Nationalism and Tribalism can co-exist, as it does in many Western militaries...but one or the other has to reign supreme, there is no equitable division. In Western militaries national is boss, but it allows for limited Tribalism. In African militaries nationalism is a very junior partner with Tribalism being the driver. The Civil War in Sudan is just another in a long line of Civil Wars...and African bemoan the lack of investment in their countries...would you risk you venture capital in a country that is either at war with its neighbors, involved in an internal war between religious groups, involved in a real Civil War or controlled by Drug Cartels ? Until Africans can find a way to take control of their countries they will always be poor and fall victim to internal and external forces that destabilize them. Truly sad.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much, Brian. Great points. Another viewer also pointed out the wider tribal/clan element of the situation. It makes a lot of sense. I sort of hinted that there was a social element, but it could have been brought out more strongly. I really do hope to come back to this.

[@lameckk8657]

Excuse me please how many wars are there in Africa right now?

[@brianfoley4328]

@@lameckk8657 Is this a serious question ? Instead of listing who is fighting in Africa, it would be shorter list of who isn't fighting. But...a quick list. Sudan, Congo, Mali, Somalia, Nigeria, Niger...should I continue ?

[@phk1959]

How come? I mean, how can different paramilitary groups exist in a country? And given that they existed, how could a conflict have been avoided. Where do their arms come from? When should international powers have intervened to safeguard stability before the conflict takes place? Do some third countries push the local players towards conflict?

[@peterkops6431]

The economic effects of the Russian invasion of Ukrainian, whilst not the direct cause, exacerbate the fragile conditions in nations such as Sudan. Inflation is a worldwide problem.

[@spaghettiking7312]

Ah, civil war #3. I can't wait.

[@tiredox3788]

I guess they got to split the country into two again. Like with South Sudan.

[@mrdoggonecrazy]

good summary, a small but forgotten aspect of the 2019 coup is that the banks withheld money form the population for almost a year prior to the coup. there were hundreds of people outside the banks everyday. Not to mention the 'heart attack' of the governor of the central bank whilst in turkey on holidays at around the same time the banks began withholding cash. This was the take over of the central bank in my humble opinion, this preceded the ousting of Bashir, who, in my opinion, was not as bad as he was made out to be. He was a sudan nationalist who wanted independence for his country and with a budding AU in the wings this could not go on. Like Burhan, the powers that be want the nationalist / muslim brotherhood out of the picture and the they have set dagalo up as their man to do the job. However, with such a dark past he is not acceptable to anyone and may well be set up as a fall guy if he manages to do his job and get rid of Burhan.

[@stephenbrand5661]

Hemedti seems to be trying to position himself as a representative of Sudan's peripheral areas, like his own native Darfur. The obvious problem with that is the fact that he actually represents Khartoum's bloody crackdown on rebel groups from Darfur as well as South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Hemedti is an Abbala Arab, a camel man from North Darfur. His people are much less numerous than the Bagara Arabs, the cattle people that range to their south. Fortunately he doesn't have the strength or natural support to win. Unfortunately he does have enough to make a huge mess.

[@mugikuyu9403]

Why’s that unfortunate? I hope that the Arabs do much damage to themselves in this conflict. Whenever an Arab does an angel smiles.

[@zakeriekhire6877]

I am east African I am.with RSF Hamdi dagalo

[@mugikuyu9403]

I am a Kenyan. I am with whichever side kills the most Arabs 😂

[@huitzilopochli1976]

FEED THE ALGORITHM

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you! Very much appreciated. :-)

[@soniafell8267]

Greed will be at the bottom of all this and innocent people have to die everytime 😔

[@MOHAMEDOSMAN-if2df]

It is not a civil war .. it is a war against a Militia. This militia force has 80% of its fighters as mercenaries from Chad, Niger and Mali. Who are recruited on ethnic bases “ Arabic nomads who occupy the region south of the African desert. The leader of the militia is a foreigner himself from an Arabic an tribe from Chad. It has been founded by the overthrown regime to fight the the African tribes in Darfour region. In 2017 the present legalized its existence forcing the week parliament to accept it, despite the push back from the army generals, although those generals were pushing the Agenda of the previous regime. After the revolution of the Sudanese people in 2019, the revolution overthrown the president and few days later the next general in line. However, unfortunately the third in line was the General Burhan who he himself orchestrated the creation of the militia during its infancy stage know the west at that time as the “Janjaweed”! Because of the negative foreign intervention the revolution were held back with the help of the week political parties. Many doesn’t know that the EU were funding this militia with 500M€ to fight the illegal immigration to Europe. Nevertheless, the militia had its own relationship with Wanger in controlling the gold mines. Regional countries such as UAE is still providing save heaven to the looted gold transported illogically outside the legal governmental channels. This militia jointly with UAE $ Wanger are controlling the government in central Africa & western Libya. The current disastrous plan was an attempt to dismantle the army, with an expandable agenda to do a demographic displacement by settling the sub-Saharan Arabs into Sudan with an ambition to establish a kingdom run by the militia family, that would match the gulf region political “flavor” Surprisingly, the information above is known by the layman in Sudan . Regards

[@cinnamonstar808]

"partial conquered by ancient Egypt"? 🔎​=​🧐

[@timmyturner327]

some food for the algorithm.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much! :-)

[@OldFArt-gx9fh]

Very useful, however I would not postulate that democracy is the only end state countries should aspire to. Look at the mess current developed countries are in and then compare it to robust, community based happy societies in countries such as Singapore or Vietnam.

[@nabilalhami1681]

11:43 Okay, his name is spelled 'Daglo' and yet Mr. James calling 'Dagilo'. How is his name actually pronounced?

[@mugikuyu9403]

Make random arab noises, it doesn’t actually matter. No doubt one of his names is Abdul or Muhammad or some other stereotypical Muhammadan name.

[@Success2023.]

Dagalu

[@ruairidhlloyd282]

If the conflict is endemic to a region then perhaps it is better to examine the source of conflict not through the individual personalities who seize upon it like Omar or Hemeti but rather the society which continuously produces fertile ground for this conflict. To understand Sudan we should pay less attention to the reasons given by these personalities for their actions at face value. All societies have power struggles. We need to instead examine the societial reality of Sudan. I believe thats where one can understand better the situation. Sociology of Islam, sociology of the tribe/clan system. Everyone knows the arguments for the resource trap, ethnic conflict, sectarianism, geogrpahy etc. But western acedemics have little understanding of Islam and tribal society and how that contributes to these conflicts. To better understand how tribal societies it is best to start with comparisons or comparative history. One can start with the closer to home context of Scottish clans in the early modern period thru to the clearances. The Gaelic clans were similar to the Scots in many aspects apart from their tribal socety in The Lordship of the Isles. For understanding Islams effect on society better one should read a manual of Shariah like 'The Reliance of The Traveller' for a general understanding of what shariah means for a society.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks, Ruaraidh. Great points. I hope to come back to this in a future video. In fact, the clan element is incredibly important in the region - as you rightly point out. I actually did a video recently on how clan dynamics are shaping the conflict in nearby Somalia: kzbin.info/www/bejne/rIatho1-i756a6s

[@ruairidhlloyd282]

@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you for engaging with your comments. The book 'The reliance of the traveller' is available as a free PDF online, it outlines what the law should be in an Islamic state according to the Shaf'i Madhab. One interesting fact about the Shaf'i Madhab is that it mandates Female Khitan/Circumcision for women. As consequence where the Shaf'i Madhab is the established islamic school, rates of FGM are high. The Shaf'i Madhab is geographically non-contiguous and this explains why FGM is high in some Islamic societies despite the surrounding Islamic and non-islamic civilisations not practicing FGM. As female circumcision is only obligatory in the Shaf'i school. Dagestan, Kurdistan, Somalia and Indonesia all have high rates of FGM despite their neighbours (non-Shaf'is) not. That is due to that particular Madhab being the dominant one in those nations. This is an example of the sociological impact of Islam and also how it clashes with human rights and modernity.

[@Samuelkings]

The British did this all over Africa, the evil empire. They did the same thing in Nigeria, putting the Islamic dominated North with the Christian south together as a country, and giving military power to the North.

[@hammer6198]

Yes! the British empire was evil. The French had nothing. But I think the American empire is the kingpin of all evil empires💯

[@martoweche536]

😢

[@mugikuyu9403]

Selerating South and north Sudan was not one of those things we can say the British did wrong. In this case they were very right that the arabised north and the nativist and Christian south should not have been under the same administration. Whenever Arabs govern over a population of dark skinned people, historically, it has always ended in violence.

[@TheSympathydenied]

the best thing to do is ignore Sudan and their issues let them roti their own mess

[@jsbrobbey200]

What do you mean by "third largest state in Africa ". Sudan is a sovereign independent country.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

‘State’ is the formal legal term for a country. (But it can also mean a unit of a federation.) ‘Country’ is the informal term, but can also mean a substate unit. For example, Scotland is a country, but not a state. It’s confusing. But state is the proper term for a country.

[@adamabraham2076]

there is no Arab in Sudan... there is arabisation like all north Africa and the African dessert...they are 3 categories in Africa subsaharian saharian northsaharian

[@markbaker2370]

Dagalo is the winner.. 🏆

[@bernardoohigginsvevo2974]

I don't think there's much legitimacy behind the claims of the Russian army clashing with the mercenaries in Ukraine.

[@sandytatham3592]

How can you talk about the conflict in Sudan without mentioning the part that Islam plays? About how Islamists want to regain power again after the quarter-century of Islamist-military rule ended in 2019 with the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir? Or did I miss it?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. I did mention that this is exactly the accusation that Dagolo has been making against Burhan.

[@sandytatham3592]

@@JamesKerLindsay: Perfect. I guess I missed that.

[@WeAretheWorld89]

And as expected US got their hands on it.

[@williamthebonquerer9181]

I wonder if Ethiopia will try to occupy the long disputed al-fashaga, sudan used Ethiopias civil war as an opportunity to expell ethiopians from it in 2020.

[@JuliaMRichter]

Abij Ahmed at the moment tries to integrate the regional Amhara militas into the federal army, if he is successfull, I guess this will not happen.

[@KingK2205]

@@JuliaMRichter the regional Amhara forces are divided to Abiy's decision. I think they should unite to be one federal force.

[@KingK2205]

@MT Walahi