Summer Climate Outlook - warm summer expected for your area?

[@nebsun]

Agree mostly with the predictions - it already feels like it will be quite a warm summer, and like the last few years I think there will be some brief periods of heavy rain but between the rain I think it will get really dry.

[@grandadneal8114]

A few years ago brandalino was on the am show saying it was going to be dry and hot september thru January and it was cold until January then we got the rain all through January and the big floods and cyclone. Good work mate

[@NIWA_Science]

Stay tuned to see how well his seasonal forecast does. Also we release a new climate update each month with the new updated guidance.

[@predatornz.5493]

2nd week of December will have the heaviest rain for the NI .3 days of it .Well the winds will always change anyhow as Spring slowly goes the westerly’s winds go and we see more Northerly . But still no signs of La Nina .

[@WayToManyAssassins]

nah gonna be a neutral this summer, possibly la nina in autumn

[@StuWNZ]

Why mention LA Nina when it's not at all.

[@billbramley8484]

That’s all dependent on La Niña and whether or not it developed fully and appears

[@WayToManyAssassins]

I like these detailed reports, do you think the lower South island will start to dry out over Jan - Feb ? It's been a very wet spring and higher humidity during the day than usual

[@cvan7940]

Good job Chris! Nga mihi nui

[@osbornseifert]

Thanks Team. 👍 Any chance we could see the velocity potential maps please? Otherwise have a great Christmas

[@GordonSargon]

Very interesting

[@JORDIIMusic]

Love the use of Te Reo Maori. Kia pai to mahi!

[@NIWA_Science]

Kia ora e hoa.

[@CognitiveDissident-b7m]

Kringē

[@mohairsam9705]

28,/30,°c H.B. Wairoa Gisborne last week

[@Matowix]

I feel like its all guess work and you cover all bases.

[@NIWA_Science]

We often express the outcomes in terciles so we in fact do cover our bases. For example 60% above average temp, 35% average temp and 5% below average temp. Terciles are a great way to express the likelihood of things happening but we find people and customers want a single answer. Stu

[@davidmcfaull3162]

I always wonder when there guys start summer? 1st of Dec, or the proper date of 22/23Dec?

[@NIWA_Science]

niwa.co.nz/news/great-debate-when-does-summer-begin

[@lesleywallace5748]

No La Njna in the forcast other channel has the right forcast you are way off no one believes this

[@robf1862]

Can't get weather right for next week so why bother?

[@Plantsman78]

I manage a friends small farm. Lack of rain is my biggest concern so I have 3 weather reports I watch, one of the others is telling me to expect a drought. Weather forecasting appears to be fortune reading rather than science

[@runforrestrun1965]

Well i know to double or treble the rainfall amount they tell me. If they say 5mm i get 15. Always get so much more so to hear thats ots a wetter summer is not one i want.

[@billbramley8484]

Meteorological drought? What is that?

[@NIWA_Science]

Meteorological drought is named for its basis in weather and climate patterns. It refers specifically to a prolonged period of below-average rainfall, which significantly deviates from the typical weather conditions of a region. This type of drought is distinct from other forms like hydrological or agricultural droughts, as it focuses on the climatic inputs rather than the effects on water resources or vegetation. Stu

[@2020davidabc]

I am retired but in my time earned a ph d and was a teacher for many years BUT I am not able to follow this BS. I have more or less connected with early to mid December, but what exactly is being forecast for Jan / Feb in the longer term, and by summer are you talking from Dec 1 or when we have the true summer from around Dec 21/22? Totally disorganized this year. What happened? As for the early peak into Christmas.....New Year, I betya there is no rain for the east of the North island !!! as predicted here. Nor much in the south. NZ is going into severe drought on both main islands in the east. In the west unpredictable. That is what is going to happen early 2025. I would put the house on it. (I do agree with one thing, it will be warm overall, but we expect that with climate change already without NIWA 's help).

[@LittleLithy]

Do you understand the definition of Climate?....YOU are talking about the weather.

[@hughheeney3554]

Who would believe NIWA, I am 70 years old and when they come out with a prediction I just switch it around and get closer than they do. Maybe they might do better if they got out of politics.

[@NIWA_Science]

Sounds like you have a system that works Hugh. We will be here if you ever need to reference how your predictions are doing.

[@Sambo77261]

Haha yes. Standing joke in our district whatever Niwa says it will do the complete opposite. Always been that way 😂

[@luzr6613]

Sounds like you're tangled up in your own Ostrich-politics.

[@bartdeking]

They can't even keep track of accurate historical data and do not seem to understand that measurstations near cities that are not full of concrete compared to years ago will increase temperatures to rise on paper. 😂

[@weiweirice2597]

How was any of this political?

[@michaelford562]

Would take your outlook with a grain of salt shocking

[@Matowix]

Me too. They all guessing.

[@NIWA_Science]

That is wise for an climate outlook, It is not a forecast. The further out you get the broader the stroke of the brush becomes. For many these broad stokes of the climate brush can still be incredibly important to making decisions. This is not planning to hang up your washing three months in advance but might influence things like stocking decisions.

[@CognitiveDissident-b7m]

Funny how those broad brush strokes always paint the same alarmist, climate catastrophist picture tho huh?

[@harbourhaven]

Thumbs down the introduction. Couldn't understand

[@NIWA_Science]

We always want to know how we can improve. Let us know what we could do to make it more clear. Thanks. Stu