Super Micro Computer - Is This The Best Investment In AI?

Super Micro Computer - Is This The Best Investment In AI? | FAST Graphs

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@FASTgraphs Ай бұрын

Now that we have an auditor we now must wait to see what the audit shows when they eventually file their financials. Although it does look promising now the way the stock is acting, I am still in a wait-and-see what the numbers look like. Regards, Chuck

@wensunkeh2030 3 ай бұрын

Chuck, thanks again, I have some shares of SMCI and currently is at loss. However I do intend to stay with the company. After listening to your view, my confidence are definitely increased. I may selectively pick up more shares at a lesser cost than the current share price. Thank you very much, Mr Valuations!

@KingN8Dogg76 3 ай бұрын

I’m in IT and have known about SMCI but fail to see how they are an AI company other than they assemble infrastructure for the data center, but the data center space is crowded, HPE, Cisco, Dell, Intel, PureStorage, and on and on. Intel also sells server infrastructure devices as well. SMCI is aligned with NVDA but so are they all. I believe AI will demand a different type of infrastructure due to the power, cooling and performance requirements. The data Centers are reengineering all of their sites to accommodate the demand. Now that SMCI has been in the media they’re getting more market awareness so there could be a boost but all that has to happen is a little innovation of any of the companies to create efficient infrastructure and they will dominate the infrastructure space especially as the price of power is increasing.

@ahsugoi 3 ай бұрын

He just looks at the numbers so you have to take that for what it's worth.

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

I explained that in the video very thoroughly

@MichaelDao-q4t 3 ай бұрын

Chuck, my first time seeing your FastGraph and your thorough analysis and research. Thank you for spending the time to share your analysis. Very educational and informative.

@costerhouse 2 ай бұрын

Thanks for your presentation - I am in at 33.00 32.90 and 32.80 if it gets back to there. Exit at 60 would be just right.

@Menorahsingh 3 ай бұрын

Thank you for the in-depth analysis and sharing the powerpoint of your research.

@Blast-Radius 2 ай бұрын

Great information Chuck but change your Power Point from SCMI to SMCI.

@FASTgraphs 2 ай бұрын

sorry

@karinmottola9227 3 ай бұрын

Recommend waiting until SMCI files its annual 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30. The financial statement is late.

@mlwilliams4407 3 ай бұрын

What happens with SMCI will be an interesting one to follow. LOVE FAST Graphs, but graphable data is only a subset of representations of reality that doesn't incorporate potential bad data (e.g. fudged numbers, the numbers behind the numbers, etc) and significant data points like delayed 10-Ks. Chuck, not sure if you guys have this in the works, but some sort of AI capability that's able to incorporate the data that should be reliable, the potential bad data, and the numbers behind the numbers due to significant events (e.g. strategic business model changes, delayed 10-Ks, CEO potential/actual change, macroeconomics/geopolitical/etc influence, potentially/actually being added to / removed from index, etc) would be invaluable.

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

Thanks for the comment, to my knowledge there is no AI that is forward-looking enough. Most AI is based on history. Regarding delayed financials I do not know if it would be possible to forecast that in advance. Regards, Chuck

@buddhabeats5565 3 ай бұрын

Always good. Is there any possibilty to show us some international stocks like Nestle, Unilever, Münchner Rück and so on. Thanks for your work.

@crumdub12 3 ай бұрын

Excellent commentary as always Chuck, Thank you

@Sam-ue4rv 3 ай бұрын

Down a lot from ATH maybe another 10%/15% be a bargain 5% of my portfolio long term investment.. Cheers mate.

@gelf7495 3 ай бұрын

Excellent video Chuck, thank you.

@scottwingerter6628 3 ай бұрын

Thank you for a great breakdown.

@adamgesztelyi 2 ай бұрын

superb example of why only looking at numbers (and not the wide-scale accounting fraud that is going on with SMCI) is not giving you the whys. You would believe the market is wrong, but in fact you are wrong and the market already knows :)

@FASTgraphs 2 ай бұрын

Did you watch the video? I went well beyond the numbers in the video. But with that said, at the end of the day it is always about the numbers. Regards, Chuck

@adamgesztelyi Ай бұрын

@@FASTgraphs This comment didn't age well Chuck. Sometimes you just gotta admit that you were wrong and didn't watch the macro (and the cooked books) enough behind the numbers. Similar story happenes with MPW that only goes one-way since it was a fantastic business. Only until it's not. From here on, SMCI is not a value bet, it's a casino.

@FASTgraphs Ай бұрын

@@adamgesztelyiI'm a long-term investor this comment nor this video has aged at all yet. I made plenty of mistakes are my 50+ years investing . Investing is not a game of perfect, however, fortunately I made a lot more good decisions than bad. Finally, at the end of the day (over the long run) investing is always about the numbers. The things you are talking about are only things that will generate the numbers that will drive returns - again over the long run.

@jamessketcher 3 ай бұрын

Is this a buying opportunity with the recent drop ?? Love to know yours and others' thoughts??

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

Long-term yes

@okam8662 3 ай бұрын

Thx Chuck, I'll add some Nvidia and some SCMI!

@Pingaring 3 ай бұрын

Thx a lot for this stream, Chuck. It encourages me to stay invested, currently also at a loss.

@Jibuu1 3 ай бұрын

What’s your opinion about the short seller report and the chance it could be true? The DOJ also started a probe on them too.

@FASTgraphs 2 ай бұрын

That is why the stock is so cheap relative to its growth potential. The business is clearly there and the future growth potential large. At this point it's wait-and-see. As stated in the video this is very high-risk. Regards, Chuck

@xJoeKing 3 ай бұрын

This reminds me of a saying my grandmother once taught me. "Valuation matters, and it matters a decent amount."

@DarkKingArthur 3 ай бұрын

Great info - Thanks again. Just an FYI - you might want to check the slides - they say SCMI and you kept reading it that way - this might confuse some people. Just sayin'

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

oops thanks for the correction.

@chrishanson8845 2 ай бұрын

Expect good earnings next week but obviously can be overshadowed by accounting or other misdeeds. I'm still going to play a combo around the announcement on the potential of a cloud lifting.

@arashsatterman9917 3 ай бұрын

Hi Chuck! I really liked your video :) Can I ask you, what is the tool you are using?

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

FAST Graphs www.fastgraphs.com

@lenkeyzalan8843 Ай бұрын

Hello Chuck, Can we have an update video of this? Or a comment would be appreciated also. I am planning to buy in. Thanks in advance

@FASTgraphs Ай бұрын

For me personally, I am not doing anything until I see audited financials. Of course, that implies that they find an auditor and issue financial statements. I was blindsided by this like many others were. The only reason I’m not just leaving the position is because I think the company does have great products and an incredible future. It really comes down to if there actually was fraud, and to what extent. If it was minor, that’s one thing but major malfeasance, that’s another matter altogether. Regards, Chuck

@intercomposed1308 3 ай бұрын

Sir, with your experience, do you have any specific thoughts on the breakup of Bell/AT&T in ~1984? I know Fastgraphs doesn't usually go back that far, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on that, even if as part of a tangential discussion... thanks

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

That was so long ago and there been so many adjustments. Remember, Southwestern Bell is really the current AT&T, they just kept the name.

@PGrizzly-t8v 3 ай бұрын

Dear Chuck Thank you for your fantastic videos. It seems that Super Micro Computers has significant negative free cash flow which is however getting much better in 2025. What is the reason for the volatility in cash flow do you know?

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

Need for increased working capital and debt to fund and support the accelerated growth needs

@johnt6192 3 ай бұрын

Chuck, thanks for the video. What does M-score or other analysis say on financial manipulation?

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

I am waiting for the new auditors to report

@tuanho8367 3 ай бұрын

Chuck, What do you think about the delay 10K?

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

I think it's why the stock is down obviously. The key will be to see what the new auditors say once they are filed. Nevertheless, for the reasons stated in the video I think the long-term growth potential for this company is very large. As a result, I think it is a long-term buy with short-term risk. Regards, Chuck

@lawron2 3 ай бұрын

They dropped the ball on that 10k filing, but they also make great products. The decision is yours.

@udarpavarota396 2 ай бұрын

What do you make of the short report though? And why haven't they published their earnings? The longer they wait, the more shady it looks.

@FASTgraphs 2 ай бұрын

The most recent information I have seen is that supermicro is working to get their financial statements. However, for what it is worth, they have reassured investors that it will not be about restating their financials instead, it is about reviewing their compliance and internal controls, then stated they are still selling servers at a rapid pace. Regards, Chuck

@trucktruck588 3 ай бұрын

Great Research Chuck

@mrbigcat9 3 ай бұрын

I like it but I think it left the station?

@IronPoorBlood 3 ай бұрын

Be greedy when people are fearful. Their product is needed by their customers yesterday. Every install this year will have to be replaced in two or three, a side affect of Mores law, in addition to new customer demand. Snooze at AI, cease to exist, civilian or military.

@azwccc 3 ай бұрын

Love this, but it is SMCI, not SCMI.

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

My bad I transposed the letters sorry it is SMCI

@gatormac2112 3 ай бұрын

What do you think about BKNG Chuck?

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

Sorry, I do not follow will it. However, it seems highly valued and has a lot of debt

@gatormac2112 3 ай бұрын

@@FASTgraphs I think the valuation is fair, I think the debt might have to do with COVID shutting down the industry and heavy buybacks. I think a deeper dive would be interesting. Heck, all of your videos are interesting!

@skrambl 2 ай бұрын

@fastgraphs Have your views changed with the auditor's resignation?

@FASTgraphs 2 ай бұрын

I need to have much more specific information before that happens. For example, if they miss stated growth that the exaggerate by hundred percent or 1% or what. So far analysts have been changed their estimates for growth. Finally, I did put out those risks in the video. I am certainly not happy, but now is the time to gather information and not make snap decisions. Regards, Chuck

@DavidJames-yu3vt Ай бұрын

Agree. Thanks Chuck. Here is an interesting quote i read today.... “The company’s loss of its auditing firm and the DoJ investigation mean that the stock no longer trades on fundamentals,” Argus analyst Jim Kelleher wrote.

@lehighind.machinery1235 3 ай бұрын

Is it SMCI or SCMI?

@Mixa2025 3 ай бұрын

If you look at at 1:08 top left, it will show the stock symbol.

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

@@Mixa2025 SMCI this is my error, sorry

@goldenturdZeniru 3 ай бұрын

Its going to go on pair with Nvidia and i think 2026 eps from nvidia will slow down fast. I would say maybe in 2025 will be a good entry point if it corrects much more. Keeping my eyes on japanese stocks, namely tokyo eletron, screen holdings and lasertec and if we have a bigger correction in us stocks, TSM , Google, AMD and asml. Unfortunately, NVDA and MSFT left the station in 2022.

@shanegreen1477 3 ай бұрын

I've been buying googl

@perkyb1213 3 ай бұрын

I’m pretty sure they understand the business and are not just going to let it fizzle. They are among the most innovative companies on earth.

@STOCKmarket-fo1fh 3 ай бұрын

SMCI cooking the books and avoiding sanctions and scrutiny… I don’t care about this. Are SMCI making genuine and great products? Do customers like their products more than Dell or HP?”

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

It's all about the future growth potential. SMCI forecasts for growth are more than double DELL or HP

@STOCKmarket-fo1fh 3 ай бұрын

@@FASTgraphs CEO

@spicybbqtasty3960 3 ай бұрын

Unless they are pulling forward their revenue, DELL has thinner margins so under the assumption SMCI is similar margins they have pulled forward their revenue. If they are delayed filing their accounting it's probably because their revenue for the last quarter will have to be adjusted down so all models are not using good data. @@FASTgraphs

@oldmagemtg7008 3 ай бұрын

This was very unexpected.

@mcook-69don Ай бұрын

Its been 2 months now. Chuck are you still holding? It's at 27.00 right now.

@FASTgraphs Ай бұрын

YES waiting for the financials before making decision. My inclination is to add to the position depending on whether there is widespread fraud or not. The company has strong products and good long-term growth potential based on what we do know. By the way 2 months is a blink of an eye to long-term investor. Just saying

@kaaanjiiin 3 ай бұрын

They're selling to Russia. The US could easily ban SMCI from buying NVDA chips.

@bolle666 3 ай бұрын

Now it's quite a bit more expensive already.

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

I do not understand your comment, it is well off its highs, can you explain?

@Sherif8928 3 ай бұрын

Hi Chuck, I respect you alot but I disagree with you on this one, the company did not produce any positive cash flow for this year despite the alleged growth in revenue and EPS, I think this might be a red flag. Hope I am wrong and no one loses money on this Jun 2024 ($8.95) Mar 2024($28.55) Dec 2023($11.26) Sep 2023 $5.04 Jun 2023($0.33) Mar 2023 $3.57 Dec 2022 $2.84 Sep 2022 $5.76 Thank you for your content.

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

The lack of positive cash flow was due to the need for working capital to fund the growth surge. As illustrated in the video, growth has accelerated far above historical norms. Nevertheless, as I also pointed out, this kind of growth is speculative. Regards, Chuck

@Sherif8928 3 ай бұрын

@@FASTgraphs Thanks Chuck appreciate you comment.

@winst2000 3 ай бұрын

SMCI becomes SCMI in 17:10

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

Please ignore my dyslexia thank you

@JustinCase-em6ql 3 ай бұрын

Most manipulated stock in ages.

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

Can you support your allegation with some facts?

@willydear4906 3 ай бұрын

Gamestop has my vote for the most manipulated stock.

@JustinCase-em6ql 3 ай бұрын

@@FASTgraphs Just my opinion, pal. No reason to get your panties in a wad.

@FASTgraphs 3 ай бұрын

@@JustinCase-em6ql So not facts OK

@JustinCase-em6ql 3 ай бұрын

@@willydear4906 Ah, Gamestop. I think you're right, there.

@MsscnNetwork 3 ай бұрын

Hindenburg is utterly short, and trapped.... buy one chip today and play the roulette with better much better odds than the casino . Just a small but will give you many dollars or profit

@July-ct7pp 2 ай бұрын

Well this didn’t play out today in the market 😂

@fuhishva 2 ай бұрын

FASTgraphs will tell you it is a great buy even as the share price approaches zero.

@daniell6303 Ай бұрын

The company went public on 2007, surely it had a lot of terrible days. Who cares about another one? Im not invested,but I laugh at the urge of people to feel better than someone else

@DestroyorR 2 ай бұрын

Obviously Chuck's financial know how far exceed my own and I'm a fan of fastgraph. However the tech powerpoint towards the end is bad. IoT customer are notoriously loyal to their initial vendor due to sunk hardware cost. SMCI and powerful gaming solution? Really? It's at that point I just zone out and the power point read like a SMCI press release - all fluff and no substance. Chuck get things right majority of the time; I just don't get why he won't admit he's wrong with hindsight and latest info. He was wrong about BMY, wrong about GPC, and I strongly suspect time will prove Chuck is wrong on this one.

@FASTgraphs 2 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing your view point. However, I disagree with your critique especially about the stocks you believe I was wrong on for the following reasons. For starters, every recommendation that I mentioned comes with 2 caveats. Number 1, always conduct your own research and due diligence. Number 2, I am always making a long-term recommendation of a minimum of the business cycle (3 to 5 years) based on fundamentals not stock price. Consequently, it is not that I will not admit that I have been wrong, instead, I will not make that judgment until that market cycle has passed. I do not play the short term gain and I especially do not attempt to forecast short-term price movements. Regarding,SMCI I covered the risks in the video , and once again time will tell whether the forecast growth rates by all the leading analysts following the stock turn out to be reasonable or not. If they do the stock will be a long-term winner. If the fraud is more severe than I currently expect that it will be a long-term loser. Emphasis on long-term. Specifically relating to your comments on BMY, AND GPC the jury is still out. I GPC we will see in about 2 ½ to 5 years from now. Regarding BMY, the drop in earnings was a result of an accounting convention that I discussed as a result of making an acquisition. An obscure rule required them to write off research and process which is a non-cash charge. In 50 years plus of doing this I have never seen that before. Nevertheless, cash flows and sales remain the same. In closing, I will admit when I make a mistake, I made one with WBA is the fundamentals deteriorated far more than I ever expected. Not reacting to the price but the collapsing fundamentals. That is not happen with the 2 companies you mentioned, therefore, I am not willing to say that I was either right or wrong - time will tell. Regards, Chuck

@auboisdaline 3 ай бұрын

Honestly, this situation makes me uncomfortable, especially with the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. It signals deeper economic concerns, and I'm uncertain about my $130K investment strategy considering the possibility of not just a recession, but even a depression.

@muizdh 3 ай бұрын

I agree. Even with great opportunities, we should proceed cautiously. Seeking market analysis or advice from certified market strategists is important.

@Z.November 3 ай бұрын

Nope. They will find a way to avoid recession