Technology Megatrends Leading to the Disruption of Transportation 2020-2030 - Tony Seba

Keynote speaker, Tony Seba, explains how technology will impact the transportation industry in the decades to come.

[@goldlover5915]

As there will be no work for humans,,we will all stay home and play video games all day!

[@unicorndiva1357]

i wish

[@robin212212]

Universal basic income.

[@danylbekhoucha6180]

If you want to play games you can, a basic income could also allow you to be in vacation all your life and travel.

[@ericdew2021]

Why would you assume that there will be no work for humans. For the whole of the human civilization, every time there has been innovation that brought in new technology, the result was technology killing the jobs that it automated, but creating thousands to hundreds of thousands to millions more jobs derived from that technology. It has been that way since Glorg fashioned a spear out of a tree branch.

[@ericdew2021]

@Tidal Yacht, certainly, innovation is happening faster and faster. My grandparents were born in the late 1800s (or maybe early 1900s). During their lifetime, and the lifetimes of their parents and grandparents, change occurred over the course of generations. If you were a blacksmith, chances are your father was, his father was, and so on for many generations. By the time my father came of age, change occurred within one generation. You could get a career in one field and live securely in that career for your whole working life. Now, change is occurring within a decade or shorter. You may have been a killer COBOL developer, but tomorrow, if you haven't picked up C, your job's gone. Then, after picking up C, if you haven't gone to C++, your job's gone. Today, it's javascript and python. Tomorrow or the next hour, who knows. But the funny thing is, we adapt to the rapidity of change and not mind it at all. When the steam engine and locomotion was first built, people warned that the human body was not capable of accepting speeds beyond 15 mph (or whatever nominal speed trains went). Today, we have humans jumping off a platform 200,000 feet in the air. We have humans flying Mach 3. We're on KZbin. Go look for some films of Olympic gymnasts from the 1940s and 50s. What they considered Olympic level then would be what we do with pre-school kids for recess activities. The human potential is quite unlimited. Your concerns about human capacity are duly noted, but dismissed.

[@ramblerandy2397]

I must have seen that horse > car disruption s-curve demonstration about 50 times. I now skip past all the demos [Mobiles, Kodak, etc] and get to the meat later on. 😁

[@michelewinsten4538]

Interesting. Very plausible. Read completely autonomous vehicles will be rolled out in a year. I am concerned the transition won't be smooth, but it is exciting innovation. Lots of food for thought!

[@johnjoseph7382]

given that it's physically impossible for a SDC to drive without a human, they will never roll out .... especially given that there are 0 videos in existence showing a SDC driving itself for more than 15 minutes, unedited, without a human having to take over

[@naeemurrahman8767]

very good, loved it. Everything you've said is accurate only give or take some of the years for that change .

[@wendellfitzgerald2]

This is great news. The downside is that progress of this kind increases land value which is the premier historical mechanism for the wealthy who already virtually monopolize the most valuable land and the middle class that is characterized by being home, i.e. land, owners will prosper at the expense of the 40+% of people who do not own. Thus progress is always disappointing since its benefits are unevenly distributed. The cost of energy and transportation will plummet as Seba says while the cost of land and attendant housing will go up due to diabolically bad public policy that favors land owners and especially land speculators. The really good news regarding this phenomenon is that the value of land we call fossil fuel resources will plummet.

[@rogerstarkey5390]

Which land will increase in price?

[@nofurtherwest3474]

I don't see mass adoption of TaaS because most people don't want to wait for a car to pick them up. That's why they drive cars. It works well in cities like NYC but not in suburban areas. Thoughts?

[@pokeshark]

those 2-10 minutes lost to waiting will be much more economic than the cost of full ownership of a car. besides you could plan ahead and appoint a vehicle to arrive at a certain time

[@nofurtherwest3474]

yes i agree that for some people that's true. today, some people wait for the bus, or subway. but i don't know that someone who lives in the suburbs and wants to be running around town doing errands, or has several kids, or wants to take a weekend road trip is going to call waymo. I can't see everyone doing this but I can see many, just like in NYC where many don't own car, just take subway/taxi, but some do own car still.

[@ericdew2021]

The suburbans will be handcuffed to their precious cars. But for the 70% of the world's population soon to be living near a major urban area, car pickup will be much better than walking 4 blocks to where you think you parked your car 4 days ago, and taking 45 minutes to find parking upon your return. Oh, you might have dedicated parking spot. For a small fee of $500/month. If you're lucky.

[@fishyerik]

As the number of cars that has TaaS increases the wait will decrease, to negligible in populated areas. And until then it will only take a little bit of planning to order the car so it arrive when you need it. Most people that manage to charge their phones before it shuts off due to lack of charge should be able to learn to order a car a few minutes before they want to go.

[@nofurtherwest3474]

@@ericdew2021 yes perhaps

[@AntonyReed]

12:45 looks like a company profile of Tesla. xD

[@viraphone]

Do you know the purpose of that big rectangular thing, hanging above the presenter? It's hanging there not occasionally!

[@tinogruchmann]

Would be interesting if he would say something about the jobs which will take the workers in the automobile industry

[@nofurtherwest3474]

u mean the jobs that will be lost or gained?

[@esport1686]

2018 - UBER rips people off and Tony here comes out with "Technology Megatrends Leading to the Disruption of Transportation 2020-2030 " 2019 - Megatrends appear 2020 - Megatrends disappear due to an invisible virus

[@Wookey.]

I guess Tony doesn't think about bikes much, as he totally fails to mention them as part of the rearrangement of city space. He also glosses over a number of issues, like yes they may be 1.2TWh of batteries-on-wheels, but they can't do much grid balancing if 60% are fleet vehicles in nearly permanent use. The other 40% which is still being using in the 4%/96% model should/could be useful for V2G. I hope to Dawkin's he's right about this, because we have a truly epic problem with US (and elsewhere) emissions if he isn't. And it'll be great to see the oil business suffer as they've helped us get in the current shocking mess. (I've moved much of my pension elsewhere already - I suggest you do the same)

[@lindsaysmith8119]

Where he is wrong is the number of cars on the road. If it is going to be so cheap, why would anyone take public transport to work. It is likely to cause more traffic chaos not less.

[@Btt8]

Lindsay Smith I think you’re right. Even is these vehicles are able to work around the clock and be efficient the sheer number of new users will overwhelm our roads.

[@tzenophile]

You are leaving out a number of important factors: 1) cars can be smaller and take up less space (1/4 for single passengers), so lanes can be 1/2 of today's width, or simply flexible. 2) autonomous vehicles can stack much more efficiently and drive much closer, so less space is wasted, queues will be 1/3 today's length and together with 1) roads are suddenly of much higher capacity 3) autonomous cars can route intelligently, so no jams or even waiting for traffic lights 4) they can drive faster safely, so less time on the road per trip = less traffic = fewer cars needed 5) peak traffic can be diluted by differential pricing; rush hour will cost more 6) all of the above factors work together against traffic chaos, so it won't happen 7) it will be much safer to use a bike, so more people will bike 8) public/shared transport will be even cheaper, faster (for the above reasons), and NB more intelligent 9) shall I continue?

[@datecuenta6454]

All they have to is to figure out the the job schedule I mean the time people get off of work and when they get back home

[@beernutsonline]

@@tzenophile Car companies can't even agree to use the same chargers, wheels or spareparts, how on earth do you think they will be able to agree on autonomy? this utopia is far into the future.

[@tzenophile]

@@beernutsonline If a standard makes financial and legislative sense, it will be followed. Car companies are going out of business all the time, and always have, so that is nothing new. Be quick or be dead.

[@LiguTheBest]

Keep in mind also that governments (especially in Europe) benefit hugely from taxing petrol, 60-70% of the price here is the tax. They won't let You use cheap untaxed electricity in these cars, because that would be huge loss for them. So obviously they will tax the electricity used in these cars similarly, so the economic advantage wont be that big, although still there through lower maintenance costs. The same is true with PV panels. The free energy coming from the sun means lower tax incomes on energy, so I'm sure these things will be heavily taxed soon! I can even imagine countries/regions to simply ban these technologies, like happened with UBER in a lot of cities.

[@gphilipc2031]

Don't worry Governments GREED is unexcelled... they will catch back in spades. Expect more toll roads and taxation based on miles driven. The cars will very likely be equipped to rat out on us every month...Your driving will be metered.

[@thestresstheoryofhansselye3607]

Well, during the early days of the Industrial Revolution in Britain, the moral and mental midgets of government tried to tax sunlight. They taxed on the basis of window size in factories. At that point sunlight was the best source of light. There will be less and less need for government as technology progresses. The underlying secret of the transportation disruption is the exponential advance in computer technology. It's changing everything.

[@rowanbroekman3929]

Electricity is already taxed much higher, it's just the electric engine that drives much more efficiënt, so it's cheaper to drive electric anyway.

[@esport1686]

2018 - UBER rips people off and Tony here comes out with "Technology Megatrends Leading to the Disruption of Transportation 2019 - Megatrends appear 2020 - Megatrends disappear due to an invisible virus

[@kdanagger6894]

People may largely abandon their private cars in urban areas, but that will NEVER happen in sub-urban or rural areas. If you think that is going to happen in 5-6 years, you are living in a fantasy land. Also, how in hell do you see EV's as an asset or supply to the grid? You never explained that. It's exactly the opposite. They are gigantic energy sinks - demanding levels of electrical power that would collapse our electrical grid in an instant. Windfarms and solar panels are wholly inadequate due to incredibly tiny number of kWh per unit area that they can provide. The only potential answer is an extremely rapid expansion of nuclear power plants. Building a new nuke plant takes at least 5 to 6 years, so we better get started yesterday if we want to be able to charge all of those EV's by 2025.

[@RalphSampson...]

@K Danagger I'm glad someone here is thinking logically. Thanks for posting some real awareness and good points.

[@whatdoiknow1803]

How about fuel cells and LFTR reactors?

[@danserbescu1363]

I'm not so sure about all of this. People will own cars long time from now as a luxury and property: I like my own car, don't wanna share it with anyone except my family, I listen to my music and drive where/when/how I want. And by the way: I am willing to pay the price for this. And I am just an engineer not a CEO

[@ruggmediagroup]

Yeah, and some people loved their horses. Those people were willing to pay the price to keep their horses.

[@rogerstarkey5390]

Engineer? Yet you're not keeping up with current technology?

[@riley_oneill]

The act of you being on the road in the future could create problems for the traffic control system which keeps all the AEVs orderly. If the majority of Americans use Taas the priorities will drastically change and drivers will no longer get the golden treatment.

[@richardt6980]

ev everywhere right. then why gm scraping the volt?

[@teaearlgrey9052]

To make pure EVs. Hybrids don't solve the problem, they are still a part of it. They give people a false sense of perception simply because of the small motor that does very little. While "every little bit helps", you're still burning lots of fossil fuel with hybrids.

[@hail_koenig]

Volt still uses gas. Per this presentation ICE=more moving parts=more expensive=less desirable

[@milekrizman]

16:51 - acceptance of electric cars in Cuba could coincide with return of democracy

[@RalphSampson...]

"Ice" vehicle?

[@willpowell4392]

ralph sampson Ice = Internal Combustion Engine

[@RalphSampson...]

@@willpowell4392 Wow.....that should have been a no brainer, huh? Thanks for giving a slow guy some help.

[@amirmograbi]

the dyson disruption claim didn't age well

[@pegr69]

It doesn't? www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/tech/dyson-plots-electric-car-with-breakthrough-battery-car-june-2016/

[@amirmograbi]

@@pegr69 I'll be damned, seems like they are still trying. So it's either they are keeping it secretive, or it's far in the future and they're not there yet. If they do have a better battery then I think they better partner with an established company that has name recognition in the electric vehicle market like Tesla or Nissan than developing their own.

[@pegr69]

@@amirmograbi Only future will tell..

[@rogerstarkey5390]

@@amirmograbi Well, they have their research centre at Silverstone, and s factory in Singapore, so it's moving forward.

[@adrianpayne5642]

It won't work it can't cover the hail Mary moments

[@nolanabell703]

Sounds like this guy is long Tesla

[@luisbecerra8152]

Yang2020

[@donaldderrick1595]

lol

[@RalphSampson...]

Just because someone "turns in" ther car and doesn't buy a new one doesn't mean they are going green. I got rid of mine and bought a 1962 F100. I like old school. I can work on it. I will never own an electric motor with a crap load of batteries under me that I sit on and drive down the street.

[@rowanbroekman3929]

But if there comes an electric taxi that moves you for a lower price then your own car would, wouldn't you ever use the cheaper option either?

[@RalphSampson...]

@@rowanbroekman3929 Not likely. I don't live in or near the big city and it's not likely I ever will. So, a taxi is not cheaper nor will it ever be cheaper for me to travel 40 miles to Atlanta to work. Also, I am a contractor and many times require a truck. Also, electric cars are not as "green" as they say. It takes more energy to produce that electricity than what I burn in gasoline.

[@rowanbroekman3929]

@@RalphSampson... That latest part is not true, check out the price of a solar panel, it will give you a mile an hour a panel when the sun shines with a Tesla model 3,that's how cheap and efficiënt it is. Even simply converting oil to petrol already cost allmost just as much electricity.

[@RalphSampson...]

@@rowanbroekman3929 So, you can only charge when the sun shines? How far can you travel on a charge? How long does it take to charge? Maybe, 300 miles? That's good but, where will I charge in the middle of nowhere 300 miles from home? There are no charging stations other than in big cities and even that's very minimal. You are buying a Tesla that costs around $75,000 or more. You have the costs associated with the solar panel system and maintenance on them. They go bad and need repair. Then, at some point, the Tesla will need work done on it. Who can work on it? I can't. I don't know an auto mechanic that can work on it. It would have to be towed to a dealer for repair. Everyone knows the dealer cost is crazy high on repairs. Yes, I get that someday waaaaay down the road, it may change to actually be feasible for the poor man to own one but, I wont like it. Not to mention, I am 54 years old. I'll likely be gone before all that takes place. So, until then.... No thanks. I'll keep my 1962 F100.

[@rowanbroekman3929]

@@RalphSampson... You could allways charge, it's just cheap to do with solar compared to petrol. It could take all day if you drove it empty, if there is no electricity around you, there's probably no petrolstation around you either. Also, an electric car needs far less maintenance, especially the drivetrain. And, you can probably order an electric taxi in a couple of years that, without luggage, can bring you cheaper from A to B then your own car does. This because electric driving is far more efficiënt then petrol driving, you'll only use about 1/4th of the energy.

[@peternk7947]

those disruptions happened because of the free market, now the disruptions are happening because of government regulations, there is a big difference.

[@kaigogolin515]

right now we have deregulation (US)... the disruption is technological (AI, transport, computing etc)

[@rogerstarkey5390]

You mean the *fact* that wind power is cheaper than fossil and even new nuclear power won't cause a "free market" disruption? Or that the Tesla Australia battery, now *proven* to be saving millions of dollars, won't do the same? Just as you say, "money talks"!

[@alivation]

I think you are only right re regulation on the ICE end of things. Governments will make it prohibitively expensive to register an ICE vehicle and will get minimal kickback because it will be seen as a green policy helping curb CO2 emissions. It already costs me $1000 a year to register my diesel ute here in Australia. In NZ they make diesel owners buy kms. They could do the same thing to petrol and LPG vehicles as a tax on pollution. But this would just be the icing on the cake, not the main disrupter. I think politicians are going to use this disruption as a way of pretending they are doing something about climate change while essentially doing nothing. Hopefully it will be big enough on the electricity generation side that solar, wind and wave will save the day as far as emissions from industry and transport are concerned. But it still doesn’t change the fact that we are hopelessly over populated. The destruction of the natural world and the collapse of ecosystem services along with the exponential increase in the costs of damage by climate change may be too much for our civilisation to cope with.

[@nolanabell703]

There are now no more tax credits for Tesla buyers yet Tesla still is e fastest growing auto company and leads the world in EV sales.

[@IgorGabrielan]

freight.ai

[@johnjoseph7382]

lol instead of parking cars you will have them clogging streets ? makes perfect sense

[@andrasbiro3007]

As it was explained in the video, there will be several times less cars, so the number of cars driving at any moment won't change significantly. The few cars still need parking space won't take up nearly as much space, and will be able to drive themselves to more convenient locations.

[@rowanbroekman3929]

Parking spots on the side of the roads can be converted to actual roads.

[@johnjoseph7382]

basically this guy's job is to propagate that somehow SDC's can actually work

[@andrasbiro3007]

In case you mean self-driving cars, they already work. Tesla is already has it in beta, and they expect it to be ready essentially by the end of this year. Fine tuning and regulatory approval may take a few years.

[@viraphone]

It's communism!

[@kaigogolin515]

oh... wow

[@rogerstarkey5390]

It's free market liberation!

[@johnjoseph7382]

humans drive horses and humans drive cars......since SDC's can't drive themselves it's hilarious to ever think SDC's can actually work

[@andrasbiro3007]

Self-driving cars can't drive themselves? Do you even know what the words mean?

[@ama9601]

But battery are chemicals..also what you do with them when are dead ? more poluting ..how much you can recycle from a battery.. and they destroy the environment digging in Bolivia for lythium...ya i know is not in USA and you don't care... maybe hidrogen is a better solution..electricity that is store in hidrogen...i know is more expensive and have more engine part... but looks more clean

[@zezizarjaars]

You can recycle pretty much anything of it, people or articles that claim otherwise are wrong.

[@tomtxtx9617]

That was a really ignorant post. Vastly more "chemicals" are being processed and pumped into the environment in a totally uncontrolled way by a fossil vehicle. Batteries, even when old have value. For example: Want to pay to replace the pack on an old Tesla? There is a $1,000 "core charge" if you don't turn in the old pack. Current lead acid car batteries are recycled >95% of the time in the USA. Why would it be less when the batteries themselves will be worth far more from an EV?

[@rogerstarkey5390]

@@tomtxtx9617 As you say, "Used" EV batteries will actually have *value* They will be recycled as a unit, either when replaced (unlikely) or at the end of vehicle life, by professionals. They'll go to static storage for probably another 10-20 years(!) Before full recycling.

[@jmcogh23]

There not digging in bolivia

[@johnjoseph7382]

this guy is making comparisons that have no business being compared....horses to cars has no business being compared to cars to SDC's....SDC's have no chance in hell of working without a human

[@rogerstarkey5390]

You're not paying attention, are you? It's happening. Wait 6 months.

[@willpowell4392]

Roger Starkey It’s been six months.

[@estrader28]

Uhh, great content uhh hard to focus uhh even so uhh. Obama uhh has been uhh dethroned uhh.