Ted Oakley - Oxbow Advisors - Interview Series 2023 - Neil Howe July 2023

[@77magicbus]

"What we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history." Great interview with a visionary of our times.

[@petertiffany8096]

Wow. He described me pretty closely as a GenXer. I am doing better than my father, but, it has not been without sacrifice and people call me pragmatic very often. I am a survivor! I have a relatively pessimistic view of the future for the next 10 or so years. I think if we survive the next 10 years, a new better future will rise. I don't expect to agree with everything about that new future and may not like it, but I hope to see a better future for my children. I do not expect much for my future retirement, if that even ever happens. I meet many fellow GenXers that feel very similar to me.

[@intradibles]

Humanity should not lose hope, even if we are born without the knowledge of events 80 years ago. While everything has to get worse before they get better, we should learn to be brave, be patient and be resilient in a fourth turning because our ancestors have been in situations worse than what we have.

[@paulginsberg6942]

Uncommon wisdom and analysis. Neil is the best. Get him back to talk money and fiscal realities.

[@timferguson593]

Thanks Ted and Neil.

[@janesmith599]

As a Gen X'er, I saw the writing on the wall and was very concerned about my kids (age 41, 38 and 23) having a home of their own. I watch them work just as hard as I did, but don't have the opportunities that I did. I'm leveling the playing field; I travel the world via Google Earth while saving every dime- have one more home to buy for the youngest child before my dream is complete- a home for each of them.

[@danielbarnett6859]

For some reason I got the book last week from my book store I guess from were I pre ordered it and I'm quater way through and it is just as good if not better than the first. Thanks Ted and Neil for helping us navigate through the tough (but nessary) times ahead.

[@Samklemens]

So it's worth reading even if you've already read the first one?

[@danielbarnett6859]

@@Samklemens yes

[@katedixon7737]

Great interview. Would love to hear more of his thoughts on the investment themes that were teased at the end. Thank you! I bought the book.

[@jamesw6069]

Correct. Millennials - we don’t feel that we can afford kids. Our parents bought houses in their twenties. Boomers are now buying 2nd and 3rd houses whilst Millennials are struggling after decades of QE and crises have enriched those that got in ahead of us and left us behind. Who would bring kids into a situation that is worse than their parents had when they were a child? This record-breaking extreme of generational inequality must be solved, especially now David Sinclair’s team are making strides in reversing aging. This is a nightmare scenario for a generation that is already priced out. The focus on experiences is due to not being able to build a place for yourself in the world. This is why there is such anger.

[@bugsbunny2357]

Not all boomers and not all millennials. People have different circumstances. I'm 60 and I chose not to have children because the world was so F'd up. Not everyone was socially and economically privileged nor disadvantaged based solely on their generation. Some boomers suffered the stock crashes and never recovered.

[@godelterminal]

Great interview! Looking forward to reading this one as well! Generations was one that really changed my perspective

[@boysrus61]

My husband and I were born in 60 and 61 so we straddle the two worlds not really solidly in the boomer or Gen X. We did do better than our parents tho. My oldest and youngest child are 17 years apart and I can see a difference for sure between the two. I do think we need to get thru this crisis and into the 1st turning.

[@davidfrankel9267]

The conversation was great but I think we needed a little AI thrown in there.

[@DrunkenXiGinPing]

Yes, animals evolve, things decay , and of course, human societies change! It is ignorant to think that our society will stay the same decades after decades !

[@JB-kk4pv]

He is not saying they don't he is saying there is a pattern.

[@markstainbrook6493]

You missed the point

[@GenX1964]

19:00 God Bless You Man! I'm a '64. Not a Boomer though almost nobody I know believes me. I regard Boomers as the bain of my existence 😅 and always have and I've always known I wasn't part of that crowd. They had good drugs though and no compunctions about selling dope to unsuspecting little proto-GenXers such as myself😐. I was totally addicted to 3 or 4 different things before I was 15 and no thanks to them. Silver Lining. I matured in my 20's, recovered through belief in a spiritual Higher Power ( remember that thing that Boomers CLAIMED to be seeking) and grew up way before many of the Boomers of my youth. Many of my GenX cohorts followed similar paths.

[@chipmidges3122]

dude you’re not a Gen X’r. Your a boomer. (1946-1964)

[@raymond_luxury_yacht]

What about GenAI (GenerativeAI / Generation AI) see what I did there?

[@cyruschadrezzar]

empires collapse due to money and lack of cohesion. think you can place a check mark on both of those.

[@cyruschadrezzar]

if you say "that doesn't happen historically" that just means we are due!

[@GenX1964]

36:00 My NEW motto "Nothing World War 3 won't cure......or not."

[@AlekKoles-ct7eh]

I would love to hear what Neil thinks of Ray Dalios book the Changing Order . How can he be so optimistic given the decline of the American empire.

[@richdilorenzo8145]

So how does a positive outcome come about when inflation is high and the lower income brackets are getting hammered all the time

[@raymond_luxury_yacht]

Can this turning be done without war?

[@johnbirman5840]

“Hardship without Purpose” Yes. This is predominantly linked to the loss of Faith of many. Suffering for a Reason is strangely uplifting if directed towards the transcendent, in other words God. But hardship or suffering for nothing is worthless, depressing, and even unjust. Why are so many people Down? Depressed? Hopeless? They don’t have an Eternal Goal or Destination. They think this world is all there is. That IS a depressing belief....but that is Not true.

[@richdilorenzo8145]

Neil: Have you actually spoken to or interviewed kids from the lower income brackets? Many if not most in some sub groups have no father in the home. How does that factor in?

[@thomasstorrs6345]

Maybe missing something but isn't he really describing the old adage that good times produce weak men that produce bad times that produce strong men that produce good times. 80-100 year cycle.

[@NocSuKow]

the coffee cup lol. very sly lol

[@jonathonwagner2166]

I don't think the country is any different. It's just a matter of who's getting to hold the microphone and/or hold the paintbrush at any given time period. This gets passed around from decade to decade. I don't think anyone holds the paintbrush for too long.

[@fscott1134]

Neil, a lapel mike is $20 on eBay! After so many computer interviews don’t you realize how poor your audio quality is? C’mon, for a smart guy it’s a pretty dumb move to not buy one.

[@JamesG1126]

I like Ted but this Fourth Turning theory is bunk. There is nothing certain about the future and how people will respond. Neil Howe sells books. Fantasy.

[@Nonduality]

True. And more important than getting along with your family and your neighbours is getting along with yourself.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

USA has 53 years to 75 years left 2075-2099 will be the end of run. Prob sooner but that’s the end We also should have a depression next 12 years 2025-2035 probably 2027

[@gobbeldy1]

omgg!

[@luxboss2388]

I say about 2025 till 2033

[@vincentmurphy9252]

@@luxboss2388 I say that’s quick but that’s great time frame depression - USA has a lot of power still but eventually if we go to 60/70 trillion it’s done ✅

[@stumpy25lbs]

Some massive generalisations here.. there are many exceptions. I find this kind of thinking a bit shallow I'm afraid. "The end of the world is nigh!" Not your best guest Ted! 🙏🏼