How Far Away Is a Ceasefire? An Update on Gaza and the Rafah Invasion | Ian Bremmer

In an exploration of conflict and diplomacy, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media Ian Bremmer joins TED's Helen Walters to unravel the ideological underpinnings, contrasting objectives and humanitarian crises defining the current situation in Gaza. Listen for the latest on Israel’s invasion of Rafah and what happened to the proposed ceasefire deal as well as a dissection of the elusive quest for peace in a region haunted by the specter of war.
This interview was recorded on May 8, 2024 as part of the series "TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer." Watch more: go.ted.com/series/tedexplains...
Follow TED!
X: / tedtalks
Instagram: / ted
Facebook: / ted
LinkedIn: / ted-conferences
TikTok: / tedtoks
The TED Talks channel features talks, performances and original series from the world's leading thinkers and doers. Subscribe to our channel for videos on Technology, Entertainment and Design - plus science, business, global issues, the arts and more. Visit TED.com to get our entire library of TED Talks, transcripts, translations, personalized talk recommendations and more.
Watch more: go.ted.com/gazaupdate
• How Far Away Is a Ceas...
TED's videos may be used for non-commercial purposes under a Creative Commons License, Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (or the CC BY - NC - ND 4.0 International) and in accordance with our TED Talks Usage Policy: www.ted.com/about/our-organiz.... For more information on using TED for commercial purposes (e.g. employee learning, in a film or online course), please submit a Media Request at media-requests.ted.com
#Rafah #Gaza #Israel

[@ihystv]

I always find it funny how Ian pronounces Netanyahu as Nut-In-Yahoo, I love this guy

[@Zwiqy45]

I like how they skip over the hostages as a pretense for the invasion on Rafa...

[@LailaLailaLailah]

Could you elaborate? What did I miss?

[@alexandrugheorghe5610]

Netanyahu has to go.

[@LailaLailaLailah]

Thank you for the frank and measured observations. This has been very very enlightening.

[@0o0ification]

I was already under the impression that the Iranians were trying to export their internal discord, by investing in more and more regional rebel groups. However, the perspective that their foreign intervention may be overextended, and so have to pick and choose their most valued interference operations across a widening front, is definitely food for thought.

[@HappinessTheBrand]

This is so crazy.

[@FREE_HUMANITY]

WTF was that ! Go and educate yourself on this before talking about this issue!!

[@purple7light86]

💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯

[@DA-bt2ti]

Am sure this dude is milionar by now 😂

[@hcoutino]

Ian getting better with time

[@Baraz_Red]

Hamas is one thing ... but let us please face the facts : water cut, electricity cut, complete blocking of Rafah, all civilian trade blocked (!), even humanitarian aid blocked (see UNICEF), over 200 UN employees, over 150 journalists, children beyond count, hunger/thirst, etc. I don't care about Hamas, but I do care about gross violations of International Humanitarian Law. Look at a map of what is left of Gaza now ... a small portion in the south. - a Canadian volunteer activist for Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law * I had to re-write this comment four times because KZbin blocked it !

[@Baraz_Red]

I had to censor the term "Crimes against...", and replace it with the more generic "gross violations of International Humanitarian Law".

[@AL-lh2ht]

You literally admit you don’t care about Hamas…man.

[@Baraz_Red]

​@@AL-lh2ht Yes. This cause worldwide, and what the UN is saying, is not about saving Hamas. You did not know that? It is about the civilian population of Gaza, about the collective rights of Palestinians, about the Human Rights of all Palestinians and Israelis, about respecting the Geneva Conventions, ending the occupation of the West Bank for a true Palestinian State there, etc. - Hamas took over Gaza by force a year after the elections (after an open armed conflict with the other main political party) and there has been no elections in 16 years. That said, even if they were fully legitimate and duly elected, there does not exist any justification for gross violations of International Humanitarian Law and for destroying everything in Gaza.

[@jacobnair6707]

@@Baraz_Redyou say you dont care about hamas but then say you care about violations of humanitarian laws. I mean the jokes write themselves 😂

[@shashanksam]

@@Baraz_Red agreed 😔

[@boricrazyjlg]

there is not going to be a ceasefire

[@IVUSER]

nor should there be

[@edojcl]

The lack of historical background is insane. The reason hamas was in control of Gaza was due to the convenience for Israel to have a terrorist counterpart. Netanyahu and likud government allowed for this situation to happen to expand the settlement policy, which ultimately backfired. But this is not addressed here, and many of the other historical key points where Israel has been responsible for this dire situation. The worst ted ever.

[@JRguyy]

Yeah… Like when Israel agreed to split the land in 1948 and the Arabs tried to wipe them off the map isntead but lost. And still tries to work with people who try to wipe them away and refuse to acknowledge them….Totalllyyy Israel’s fault

[@surayahilal7019]

Who is the occupier? Who is the genocide state! Where is the background and history? And who is this Zionist!?? Ted, you have done badly with this speaker!

[@jacobnair6707]

There are other TED’s about this topic. This is an Update not a history

[@Check.Your.Sources]

I hear ya… but think about it this way -> when you consider the large western audience TED brings to the table? It’s a good start. Many Americans watching this might only be hearing these talking points for the first time due to the state of US media. Which is crazy, but… If people see this information come from a channel with integrity, it might make some of them question their perspective. As the other comment said @jacobnair6707 , there’s other history based videos around. All viewers have to do is choose to look.

[@kayskreed]

They know, but they don't want people to know the truth since it paints them in a bad light. If the truth were spoken no one would condone Netanyahu's and the US government's actions.

[@purple7light86]

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooo biased tedtalk? Surprised but shouldn't be

[@MrGaky]

it is the most fact based talk I have ever seen, your comment is biased and it shows which side.

[@purple7light86]

@@MrGaky 🤣🤣🤣

[@ahmedosama1457]

Just casually saying 34000 palastinians dead ...and then moving on and saying what will bring hamas to the table !!! How about condeming isreal for the killong of civilians ..how about putting accountability of the "only democracy in the middle east"

[@michaelmoskowitz3212]

what nation would respond differently if attacked? they are going after hamas not civilians. you should condemn violent resistance and only support peaceful resistance and coexistence if you want it to stop.

[@spiceyfrenchtoast9421]

​@@michaelmoskowitz3212US would at least see it coming

[@nonsoottih7405]

These idiots have already wasted so many innocent lives. There is truly no benefit of war

[@fpfk8703]

NOTanyahu

[@samshepperrd]

44:37. And then, there's this. Duuuuhhh.

[@cyanokid4895]

5:59 Your questions are so bias and weird. it sounds like blaming Hamas for 35000 Palestinians died.

[@460mas]

They are

[@haim83]

As a local government, There are.

[@lumar6082]

It's not terrorism its resistance and it's not a conflict it's war and its complicated it's simple : get out of our land period!

[@jayshko]

Define “our land”. Is Tel Aviv your land or just Gaza? If it’s the latter, Israel was not there Oct 6th.

[@andrewbay8891]

thats right. palestinian land

[@ructh]

So basically, you're asking all the Jewish people to leave or die? Sounds very simple. Why don't they agree?

[@kirangouds]

The opening statement itself is so biased. Did not expect this from TED

[@joecota2644]

Fascism pervades all aspects of society including science

[@MrGaky]

What is biased?

[@Sheila-lq5hs]

How is it biased? Is the word invasion triggering to you?

[@MrGaky]

@@kasim7929 I don’t understand, Israel responded to an attack on its people on October 7th by Hamas. So Israel retaliated to kill the Hamas that did it. Or was it a different reason? It’s also what they say in this interview.

[@flashzero92]

@@MrGakytechnically Hamas reacted to Israel’s violent occupation of Gaza. Israel is fighting to maintain control of all Palestinians.

[@caashiqatulquran2154]

Very biased talk. 🙄

[@Nickname006]

No. Actually very unbiased for once. Both sides are human, you have to recognize that. This is not an easy conflict where one side is purely evil and the other purely good. This is not a story book.

[@yaa40]

Well, TED, it was a nice run but it is time to wave goodbye. You won't miss me, and I will not miss you. Presenting a single-sided, biased, political "scientist" and not contrasting it with any other opinion shows your bias.

[@cpklapper]

I favor a no-democracy solution with NO democratic categorization, with NO morality, and NO society. Instead, I propose a citizen stipend so that nobody is compelled to join a military out of economic duress; I propose the formation of colleges of extended families holding their land and buildings in common over generations; and I propose that the pattern described in Genesis 2 be adopted, so that the women never leave their parental households and that each man ONLY leaves his parental household to cleave to his wife’s parental household, the two becoming one flesh in their parental relations. There would be a tendency, under this pattern, for miscegenation in the populace and thus for a unity in diversity within the colleges, so that their autonomy obviates any democracy, and so that local republics can be formed, then federal unions of local republics, then federal unions of federal unions, and so on.

[@eainc.708]

They deleted my comment. I won't be retyping it. I already know the slant...

[@shashanksam]

same

[@meanderinoranges]

A vote for Biden is a vote to perpetuate the government control over big tech and the first amendment.

[@Baraz_Red]

Everyday, many of my comments are blocked by KZbin, and I am a polite Canadian Human Rights activist. It is crazy.

[@wegder]

The Syrian Network for Human Rights has stated it had documented 231,108 civilian deaths and 14 million displaced between March 2011 and January 2024.[34]

[@trader2137]

once hummus is no more

[@IVUSER]

Pita is forever

[@Baraz_Red]

I do not know the truth and what Hamas leaders and partisans really think but, in 2017, the official Hamas position recognized Israel would remain a State and instead advocated for the UN defined borders and rights. I am not 100% certain why Hamas attacked, but 16 years of blockade is no joke; in fact a blockade is objectively an act of war and of course it hampered the economy of Gaza (the current blockade is another story: it blocks anything). - a Canadian Human Rights activist / MA in International relations.

[@IVUSER]

If you believe Hamas and their BS, you're more naive than a 6 year old.

[@aichasnaibi-sx5rt]

You can't hid the sun with finger

[@asafhenig3833]

Why didn’t Ian and other analyst suggested US and the UK would negotiate with ISIS and not fight it. A bit of a double standard. Israel is expected to negotiate with Hamas when no one is expected the US to negotiate with ISIS.

[@IVUSER]

EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!

[@nabilaboksmati1505]

🙏🕊🇵🇸

[@WriteInAaronBushnell]

Build a democracy from the river to the sea

[@meticulo]

You should be asking hamas to surrender and give up control to UN or United states….

[@lemenamaste6186]

Very biased talk. it's time to say Good bye TED.

[@JB-ti7bl]

How far away is a ceasefire? It's as far away as HAMAS releasing the hostages (or their remains). Why is that hard to understand?

[@Fonix870]

Hi

[@Fonix870]

Hello

[@JRguyy]

Pleasantly surprised. Closer to fair reporting that most of the garbage we see in the media. Demanding that Israel just stop before meeting their security needs is ludicrous

[@WriteInAaronBushnell]

What did you think was going to happen you lock 2.3 million people in a box with nothing to do but plot revenge for 20years?

[@loreleiohagan5411]

What a deeply cynical and ahistorical take. Just categorically unserious. As if the whole world isn’t watching and knowing the real story. Shame. Shame.

[@purple7light86]

Exactly 💯 💯 💯 💯 💯 💯 💯 💯 💯

[@LailaLailaLailah]

I don’t feel like I know much about the details of the conflict. Could you tell me more about how you see the “real story” ?

[@ShirleyShani]

Due respect - skipped the fact that the Palestinian population partook, celebrate and still supports Hamas’ October 7 actions. Now if you comment about Israeli population, you should also comment on Palestinian population. And it’s not “few” who protest, it’s many.

[@ShirleyShani]

@@kasim7929 show me the celebrations.

[@johnnyyy1111]

Absolutely SHOCKING that people support Palestinians fighting back after decades

[@shashanksam]

they have been suffering for many decades, and for the first time they attacked back on oct7, they are not happy that innocents died, they are still suffering , it didn't make any difference, except the world sees them that they can fight back. they just showed that they can fight back as well, if israel doesn't stop their invasion. please look at what happened before oct7 as well, not just what hamas did, please 💔

[@ShirleyShani]

@@shashanksam Not for the first time. Even if we only count since Israel left Gaza in 2005 it’s not the first attack. Now, we all agree they suffered and were occupied; that doesn’t negate the fact that (1) in Gaza they had a chance at independence and chose to build an underground terror base and (2) if we talk about civilians support the actions, we should also talk about them supporting October 7, not just Israelis wanting Hamas in power (not necessarily supporting the current government and war).

[@shashanksam]

@@ShirleyShani since 2005, as hamas took the action in their hands, they were not ready to forgive what had happened until now, while peace could have been achieved if Palestine had accepted independence under Israel's conditions and restrictions back in 2005, not everyone can overlook the injustices they've endured, not all are kind hearted to forget all that was done to them, we have no idea what they have been through, i do not support war and retaliation, and i cannot claim to be compassionate if I had experienced similar circumstances. Only those who have lived through it truly understand. and the people who suffered and decided to reclaim their land which used to belong to them, the homes which they have been living in, from which they were forcibly displaced, and as he mentioned, the leader of Hamas who lost many family members, shows that he and his sympathizers, who seek justice for their losses, refused to accept the conditions imposed upon them for independence. so we do acknowledge their plight of being occupied, so many of the people, both in palestine and especially within hamas feel that until they get justice for their losses, they will support the actions of oct7, but they dont desire another massacre either, people who justify killing of innocents is unacceptable, but those who were weary of enduring felt compelled to retaliate in some manner, and unfortunately this resulted in the deaths of many innocent individuals. they shouldnt have done it, many palestinians feel the same, that innocents were not supposed to be hurt, but it happened. if people seek justice for the events of oct7, I urge to also seek justice for the events that have been occurring for many years before oct7 and continue to occur thereafter. that's all. the innocent individuals who died were wrongly killed. however, understand that hamas felt the need to demonstrate their ability to fight back, but in the wrong manner. Some people who support the killing of innocent are misguided and should not have such feelings. their emotions, fueled by years of anger and loss, have led them astray i request the stronger power in this war/genocide/conflict , israel, to reconsider their true intentions. I plead with them to support Palestine and allow them to heal in their own untouched land(although most of it is destroyed by someone), and then once they forgive israel, and once hamas no longer feels threatened, hopefully israel will find a way to forgive hamas for their loss after a peaceful compensation, then hamas will surely cease to be a threat to the bigger force, which is israel, both sides are fueled by anger and loss, someone has to step down and discuss. hamas is the small force and being pushed to a corner and had to retaliate in such means. hmm sorry for talking too much, just frustrated 😞, its not like its a reply to your message, ( skipped the fact that the Palestinian population partook, celebrate and still supports Hamas’ October 7 actions. Now if you comment about Israeli population, you should also comment on Palestinian population. = yes both should be addressed, even tho the people ratio in palestine population is way less compared to israel

[@Huckhaven]

Lost me at 23:00ish

[@eainc.708]

Lost me around 3:00 as I'm hearing Hamas and the Israelis being framed as relatively comparable military forces. That's a farce. Those paying attention know that this project has been about removing Palestinian people and infrastructure that would make Palestine a livable place people could return to after the unimaginable destruction and loss of civilian lives.

[@shashanksam]

@@eainc.708 thats exactly whats happening, Israel people asking hamas to surrender their military is like, a whale asking a fish to surrender. israel already occupied around 90% and is powerful enough to steal the remaining. 😞😢

[@367499149]

This guy represents the far left in Israel. The Israeli public support equvicly in the war against Hamas

[@aichasnaibi-sx5rt]

If you want to talk about Palestine you should make a real conversation with palestine people not one line

[@ayoubchoukri8542]

Long live free Palestine

[@IVUSER]

Long live free Plasticine

[@jjs982]

The UN announced Israel on 1948 so why now every one claims we took the land from the Palastinians?

[@The1994210]

Been actively taking since then, not took

[@PintoConrad]

Yes, the same people alive in 1948 are still working for the UN today.

[@ofirarg]

israel took nothing from the palestinians because "palestinian" is a flase identity arabs made up as an antithesis for jews in 1929. israel took BACK land from syria, and Jordan after they started a war against israel in 67.

[@trader2137]

and palestinians took jewish lands 1300 years ago, whole world decided to create israel, even if not, then israel conquered these lands, so its theirs, its no longer palestinian...

[@ofirarg]

@@trader2137 those were the romans. the so called "palestinians" never ruled this land. the romand called it "palestine" and then the british used it as a name for their colonial entity (the british mandate of palestie). the arabs started to call themselves "palestinians" in the 1920s to create a false claim to the land.

[@Ahmedalkalbani]

Free 🇵🇸

[@trader2137]

free palestine from hummus

[@_naynay_]

​@@trader2137 nah from Zionism

[@trader2137]

@@_naynay_ i wouldnt call that zionism, hummus is all that is responsible for gazan tragedy, there will never be peace as long as hummus is in power

[@zaid1919]

free Palestine , there is no isreal ,

[@user-ew8xj5pg7y]

God loves you and takes care of you so that this message reaches you. God is the one who created this great universe and has complete control over it. And the greatest loss that a person loses in this life is that he lives while he does not know God who created him, knowing the Messenger of Muhammad, the last of the messengers, and the Islamic religion, the last of the heavenly religions. The great intelligence, before you believe in something or not, is to read it, study it, and understand it well, and then you have the choice to believe in it or not. I advise you on this now before you do not have time to do that.

[@shashanksam]

hmm yes agreed Subhan Allah 😢

[@ofirarg]

god gave the land of israel to the jewish people. the sons of israel.