Forecasting in the past, present, and future: David Orrell at TEDxParkKultury

[@nUmBskulLL]

A guy i met on a train sent me here. ❤

[@MyMusics101]

The speaker expressed personal incredulity regarding the Butterfly Effect, yet repeatedly gave examples or outright stated that some(!!) complex systems respond strongly to small and local changes. Also, I would argue that many of the approaches used were not based on ancient aesthetic ideals, but rather on practicality: Assuming people to be rational, self-interested etc. limits the space of likely actions drastically, such that forecasts are much easier, even though the model obviously has flaws. The same thing can be said about independence - try modelling a billion interdependent individuals accurately. Even if your model is perfect, no supercomputer can compute such an infeasible calculation.

[@macbcheesy]

About your butterfly effect comment, I don't think he's saying it's not real. He's saying that most people say the BFE is the reason complex models fail, and he's saying that it's not BFE, just model error.