The 4th Turning Is Here book review | Boomers', Gen X's & Millennials' Role in the Crisis Turning

This is a book review of The 4th Turning Is Here by Neil Howe. This is a cyclical theory of history book focusing on the role of different generations in a possible impending crisis.
If you plan to buy the book on Amazon, use this link to support the channel:
amzn.to/48lhVbY
If you are interested in a similar book with stronger causal logic, I recommend End Times by Peter Turchin. Again, here is a link that supports the channel…
amzn.to/44Rh4NP
… And here is my book review of End Times:
• Elites, Counter-Elites...
Image credits:
pixabay.com/photos/signpost-p...
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/hand-human...
Image by Sabine van Erp from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/statue-scu...
Image by Silviu on the street from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/smoke-suit...
Image by lordsse_design from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/explosion-...
Image by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/crayons-co...
Image by Aline Ponce from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/nature-are...
Image by RÜŞTÜ BOZKUŞ from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/cherry-blo...
Image by Ben Kerckx from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/snow-winte...
Image by Jörg Vieli from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/fall-avenu...
Image by Kerstin Riemer from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/protest-pr...
Image by Niek Verlaan from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/tie-suit-b...
Image by Josh Mason-Barkin from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/fortune-te...
Image by Tumisu from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/child-stud...
Image by Amr from Pixabay
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ml...
pixabay.com/photos/game-puzzl...
Image by Zoltan Matuska from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/startup-bu...
Image by StartupStockPhotos from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/people-man...
Image by 👀 Mabel Amber, who will one day from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/night-came...
Image by Kiên Trịnh from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/tank-museu...
Image by Rudy and Peter Skitterians from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/school-cla...
Image by Rudy and Peter Skitterians from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/hippies-bu...
Image by PublicDomainPictures from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/magnifying...
Image by Angelo Giordano from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/people-gro...
Image by StockSnap from Pixabay
pixabay.com/photos/pendulum-c...
Image by winterseitler from Pixabay

[@roaminrick]

He is around and active on podcasts. It would be interesting if you got in touch with him and had an interview on critiques mentioned.

[@marxxthespot]

Great review! During the pandemic, trapped in my bedroom, and losing faith in corporate mainstream media to explain what the hell is going on, I discovered this book. Around the same time I came across billionaire Ray Dalio’s epic cartoon on KZbin “Principles of a Changing World Order.” I see those two as companion pieces as Dalio has admitted publicly what a big influence the 4Th Turning was on him and in the building of his fortune. According to Dalio the coming crisis is the decline/ collapse of the American Empire & the rise of a China centered world order. Through that lens you will see that China has robust & healthy institutions with significant buy-in and conformity (eg gender) from the general population. Admittedly, after absorbing these two text’s everything started to make sense to me for the first time in a long time. These two texts are transparent in their tracking of Western White European cultures. To me that is another wildcard (like technology & Revolution you mentioned… interestingly, the American Revolution is one of the turnings covered in the first book, so I’m shocked he missed that 🤷🏻) China is not part of the Western tradition & the influence of indigenous cultures values &’beliefs as we try to back ourselves out of the corner of a climate crisis and 6th Mass Extinction cannot be underestimated! And what about Africa? A lot of powerful and dynamic stuff going on there that doesn’t get covered in Western media. Based on these Text’s I’m 95% convinced the shit is gonna hit the fan on a scale we can barely imagine in the next 5 years and it could happen as early as tomorrow. How the dust will settle is where I too am very skeptical of The 4th Turning & Dalio’s Principles for a Changing World Order.

[@susanjacobs6461]

I so agree!! To not note the actual climate crisis, well...how will there be some great new first seaculum. How? Where? And it is sooo Eurocentric...

[@OurPredicament]

The four Generational archetypes exhibit their traits in every turning, not just the fourth. Nomads are so named because of a lack of direction and expectation from society provides them the no-nonsense attitude and toughness needed in the crisis.

[@jjuniper274]

I read Millenials Rising: The next generation by Howe and Stauss for my Masters. Fascinating. What do you think of the Boomer generation not retiring? I know the trend at our company is GenXers retiring before Boomers. We have one this week.

[@juanitaf.m]

I'm curious to read The Fourth Turning is Here Now and came across your review. I read The Fourth Turning a few years ago, and I find this very thoughtful for consideration before I do read it. I believe Mr. Howe refers to Gen X as the Nomad generation because they were the first mass latchkey generation. Because of this, I also disgree with his assessment of Boomers. He may be so gracious by bestowing "wisdom" to them because he, himself, is a Boomer. My theory is that they give generously but not willingly. They have to pass down assets by way of inheritance or simply because they're dying off. We're having the greatest wealth transfer via wealth and leadership positions because we're having to, pardon the colloquialism, to pry it all from their cold dead hands. As the child of Boomer parents, they're on the forefront of change by default. The system had to make room for them. They aren't the vanguard of change any longer. In fact, they're spoiled. So used to people making accommodations for them. They expect people to follow them because they claim to know so much. I don't think they do... that generation that benefitted from so much in the workforce (now collecting pension, the conversion to 401Ks, AND social security) all while left their children home alone, creating the latchkey generation. And they still refuse to retire. I'm less inclined to think they have the handle on family values and work ethics that exhibit groundbreaking wisdom.

[@susanjacobs6461]

Also, we the youngest boomers (@1960 )cannot relate to the elderly J Biden Boomers At All!!!!!

[@susanjacobs6461]

So every generation has folks born on the cusp who are their own sort of sub generation.

[@pubwvj]

Read up on the three generations of Ibn Khaldun (1332AD). Creators, maintainers, destroyers. Many talk of cycles but none reliably predict them specifically enough for concrete actions.

[@Mrjacharles]

Love to see books getting it right. Wonder what the rest of the 20s has for us ...

[@nigelharvey640]

Oswald Spengler also had this cyclical view of history but had far larger and longer time scales. I have to imagine he was a big inspiration for this book as he too used this spring, summer, fall, winter thing. Maybe you’d want to check out a summary or lecture on Spengler’s ideas. I recall and old interview with Kissinger where he said he gave Nixon Spengler’s book to read, not because he believed in the predictions (either from the stance that it could be avoided or from the stance that he was disingenuous ) but because he wanted Nixon to think in those terms. Now I think of Kissinger as probably nefarious but it’s all the more reason I was confused why he’d want this cyclical view of history around. What value would that have in terms of leverage? Anyway, I say this because I could definitely see this 4 turning idea as an extension of an agenda as well, but for an intention that is unclear to me. It would at least explain the conviction and confidence made in the book without any evidence. They are bold because they aren’t predictions but rather plans being delivered in a subversive way or based in mechanics that are being intentionally left out from the book itself But maybe I’m just cynical and jaded lol. At the end of the day, the cyclical view does resonate with me and has even in Spengler. Cycles play a big role in creating the capacity to look at a process holistically and I think that’s what attracts me to it (since our world can often feel very informationally disjointed)

[@carlosgaspar8447]

what about societies living in a rain vs dry season cycle?

[@nigelharvey640]

@@carlosgaspar8447 oh it didn’t depend on Geography. The 4 seasons were symbolic of the state societies were in. So the first two spring and summer he called cultural as the society developed its form of mathematics, arts, metaphysics and community around a certain theme. Then in the later two, fall and winter, it was civilizational, where the society critiques its own premises and questions the way of life, often with massive cities or social works already. They usually also have emperor leaders taking over the entire systems and stoic philosophies that abandon the religious zeal of the culture phase. Then it just repeats. I guess, you could just split those up into 2 states, the culture phase and the civilization phase, and call that rainy and dry but Im guessing the 4 was just based on Spengler’s own bais living in Northern Europe. The point is the cycles at the end of the day though

[@pictureworksdenver]

In your life stage plot chart, Nomad and Artist cohorts are misplaced.

[@lematindesmagiciens8764]

I did not read those books. The very premise of defining history in terms of successive crises is already something that is very debatable. Also, seeing the evolution of a society as cyclical is a very attractive idea, that tempts us into believing that maybe we can even predict the future, but let's just say that so-called futurists don't have a stellar record in predicting trends. (think of the club of Rome forecasts!) I also find this obsession with conflict and even war a misrepresentation of actual history. I know that history books emphasize periods of conflict, but important changes in society sometimes come from very unexpected directions. Personally, books like Megatrends, from John Naisbitt, are more my cup of tea.

[@FirstmaninRome]

Great work on this channel!

[@russellgallman7566]

I get the impression that Howe is doing "Hypothesis Generating" and not "Hypothesis Testing" per se. That take will allow for a lighter evidence based presentation.

[@susanjacobs6461]

I agree.

[@pubwvj]

I think he means nomads push boundaries. Innovators or creators may be a better term.

[@ga7143]

Hi Ashley, Do you recommend reading the fourth turning before reading the turning is here?

[@thenewenlightenmentwithash8465]

Not necessarily. The 4th Turning is Here summarizes the 4th Turning pretty well.

[@susanjacobs6461]

I am reading the second book now....but! We are facing climate extinction and WW3...we may never get to have another 1st Turning. Also...this us based Eurocentrically, and US centric...a bit tone deaf, methinks!

[@robertgoehner5515]

You need to read his book “Generations” it will answer all your questions. Also he has been doing this for 40 years. How long have you researched this topic.

[@wrevelate]

This is the best book review I've ever watched on KZbin

[@chrisbenavides3176]

Good video, but I've never been impressed with Strauss and Howe's analysis.

[@brendansullivan3408]

Just a guess here... maybe it would be better if he started his broad strokes with... "Perhaps..." I really like your channel!!!

[@marcduffy1792]

Thanks!

[@Horroryoga]

Well spoken!

[@FirstmaninRome]

damn, reviews soo good on this channel, you may not need to read the book, I 've always been big on literature critics, but this is like that for nonfiction, and it's better, cause I'm over literature, lol

[@schiffelers3944]

Talking about societal decline, and POV/perspectives. When is the decline of society happening? Now; "is here"! The Homelanders aka Gen Alpha. The way I take it; as the "awakening" (Woke/nomad (non-home owner)) generation is/has been entering the "leaderships" positions. With the selection biasses, etc. We are talking about the societal decline of the US, mostly. Not so much Western societies as a whole yet. Because: What are they/The leading western democracy leading with? War-power? Mind-control (propaganda's) & control over informations/cencorships? Big Tech & US Government? Privacy and individual rights & freedoms - a way to connect with others and organize against social oppressions? Or be social oppressive and commit crimes/domestic and stochastic terrorism? Jan. 6th, etc. And that political extreem right side is most loud about their views on how their society is in decline. MAGA. That is the scary part - the people that do talk that way are part of this decline problem. IMHO. That generation, mine, have been fighting for and being the warrior/hero for since they started to rebel against the cycle of that what was before? Heteronormative/heterosexist patriarchy structures cloaked behind some "religious" opinions/views, out-dated views in plenty of ways in modern day contexts. And the genertations all go through these cycles. While the societal cycles happen - and individuals are in different life stages/cycles. Freedom/human rights and the sexual revolution in continuations. As I was born this was what I grew up with; thinking the fight was reflecting what society was like, not the fight they wanted it to be like. At the same time the newer generations are born at certain societal times. My father was 6 during WWII, the child/homelander in European contexts. While WWI happened not that long before that. So, which crisis is the crisis? And what was the decline that came before that? The sexual revolutions happened after that, with the sexual equality movement following the sexual revolution on its heels or is still part of that "fist turning" and now we have multiple fist turnings just within multiple generational homelanders/artists. So I am from 1980; the last of the Gen X and the liminal Gen Y /Millennials. With the Satanic Panic, and the Aids crisis, the Golf War, etc. Global/US/jumping to others issues My "awakening" happened with 9/11 - and the wiki-leaks, etc. That was when I was a young adult and rebelling. Waking up from the American Dream, for which you have to be asleep to achieve/obtain. Waking up from some indoctrinations and propaganda's from my youth, and rebelling some of against them. [🎶"All my life, looking at America, all my life; Panic in America" - America, Razorlight 2006] Now the reversal of Roe v Wade, the anti-LGBT+ stances, etc. reversal of progresses, and the push of other societal "progresses" while also having the Climate change crisis. The decade we could have taken a stance but US thwarted was 1979 - 1989. Loosing Earth (book). US & Space Force, etc. And the lab leak pandemic with a virus that had gain of function experiments, crisis 2019 - 2020's onward? When economy is the primary motivation in hyper-capitalism. Not my ideology - but I am "leader" "position" generation [not really the postition in actual life, and in the digital worlds its the awakening generation the "warriors" that have the most say and influence], not part of the US democracy but in the age of globalisation the western democratic societies. I don't condone the moves of the US since my awakening, keep in mind the "gay marriage" was legal in that aspect of movement and cultrue in the Netherlands, 2001. Different than US 2015 followed by Trump Era 2016 - onward, and the decline of the US society with the extreme conservative national theocratic push/fight/call for civil war. But in the US there seems to be an age plug, plugging up the systems - out of fear to be seen as ageist. White dinosaurs with "wisdom" or just pure "luck" aka the boomer and silent generations, holding on to their power to matter. Looking at the society of the US that is now. In decline/crisis? I am not US citizen, I am Dutch our society is in a different aspect I would say. But we are a western society, so how collective is the collective? If the leader falls, all fall - like with chess? If US falls the rest will stumble? But will they fall? Is the US the King piece on this chess board? And against whom are they playing aka is the other King (China, Russia, EU, Africa, South America? Socialism? ACSLD's? [Anti-Capitalistic Social-Libertarian Democracies?] And will it be China that rises and takes the void, as most signs indicate? "Communistic" with social credits vs capitalistic with financial credits. Or is it the class war? The elites vs the counter elites? I am watching for the 2nd time and taking notes; at the moment 10 minutes in. I find the symplistic "logic"/"rational" very pleasing - human psychology and our need for order in chaos, or organized chaos. However life is a little bit more complex and overlapping. If not mistaken, watched 1st time yesterday (and consumed other things in the meantime) there will be a mention of collective & individual. At the moments we are looking at individuals as a collective, but not the whole collective. [Nor in whole at the liminal and in-between spaces/individuals.] Rebirth/reshape + indoctrinate -> Awakening/rebellion against indoctrinations -> Leadership -> Wisdom (council) Logic and reason is all fine but wisdom includes emotions, feelings, and values of experiences and trauma (prevention and healing/understanding). I guess that is the Neo-Enlightenment aspect of the current zeitgeist and cultural evolutions, devolutions, revolutions. Miley Cyrus born 1992 🎶 Used to be young [2023] & Younger now [2017] Gen Y 1981 - 1996 Millennials; 1980 - 1999 Gen Z mid to late 90's up to early 2010's. Spinning the hands of time backwards in a society? Back to 1220 (M. Knowles)? Talking about decline. US religions are in decline and the theocracy is on the rise. In these societal circles, again society - what society? At large or specific groups?

[@thecookreporting]

Not sure if I'll read this. Seems like shallow historicism that could be an elaborate meme, as people seem to embrace labels and roles.

[@TravelingLittleFish]

Just before the fall of Rome sexual blending happend too.

[@phabulous1614]

The present is a time of overwhelming interest to all living. Rulers and statesmen, men who occupy positions of trust and authority, thinking men and women of all classes, have their attention fixed upon the events taking place about us. They are watching the strained, restless relations that exist among the nations. They observe the intensity that is taking possession of every earthly element, and they recognize that something great and decisive is about to take place-that the world is on the verge of a stupendous crisis. Ed 179.5 Angels are now restraining the winds of strife, that they may not blow until the world shall be warned of its coming doom; but a storm is gathering, ready to burst upon the earth; and when God shall bid His angels loose the winds, there will be such a scene of strife as no pen can picture.

[@futuristudios]

🤔

[@benedem4175]

I would add to the list of possible crises: society's reaction to acknowledgement of how dangerous the COVID-19 vaccines are.

[@pneumanaut1]

I wonder how the gender fluidity plays into this. I've heard that gender fluidity is a marker in former societies before they collapsed.

[@OurPredicament]

Very perceptive and true. In fact there are multiple Cosmic Cycles playing out in oir time. The turnings of generations are one, the stages of empire are another. Read The Fate of Empires by John Glubb. In the last stages of empire sexual mores loosen as decadence becomes the purpose of society. These cycles overlap and build like piano keys harmonizing into the coming wave that is #OurPredicament.

[@SeventhCircleID]

...Karl Popper is rolling in his grave...

[@marlonbryanmunoznunez3179]

Numerology for nerds. Totally worthless.