The Bubble Of Dubai Real Estate About To Burst? | Wali Khan Podcast

[@KamilMagRealEstate]

Thank you for having me on your channel, Wali. Greate host 🤝

[@carefulconsumer8682]

Very insightful discussion. Thank you.

[@The_Real_S3]

Very insightful, I’ve never listened to a long video before. Thank you 🙏🏽

[@AjayKumar-up6bn]

Eye opener discussion, thanks

[@KamilMagRealEstate]

Thank you for kind words 🙏🤝

[@CJI838]

Thanks for insides

[@User50Ft]

One of the important piece of data I ever want to look at is the occupancy rate in freehold residential property, and that will convey everything which for some reason, is never published.whats your take on this?

[@JoshuaTree-j5f]

Many people in dubai, especially estate agents in the market, keep on quoting population growth in dubai. My questions to them are as follows: 1) how much of the population is eligible to buy property above 1 million or have income more than per capita income of dubai 16000 aed per month . 2) how many cash buyers actually buy new ready property . If they are highly confident on the market from a long-term perspective, they would invest the entire money in something new and ready than speculating in the off plan market by making partial payments. 3) How many residents actually work and reside in dubai. I personally have seen a lot of people work in dubai but reside in affordable places like sharjah .can these people contribute to overall growth in dubai residential market? 4) how much of the increase in the population was supported by blue collar workers like construction workers who are behind this marvelous infrastructure? Just by saying population in the city have increased doesn't mean it will definitely contribute to continous abnormal growth in the housing market it need more supportive reasons to attribute such beliefs.

[@KamilMagRealEstate]

These are right questions , but let me be short with answers - majority of people moving to Dubai are those who obtain golden visa, talent visa, IT specialists , healthcare, education, engineering etc visas. Now labour resideing in Sharjah is counted as daytime population not as residents . If they are living in Sharjah. Dubai has highest average figure how many years you need to work with regions average salary to be able to buy property - it’s 8,5 years . Regarding daytime population - it’s expected to be 7 mln and 5,8 mln residents by 2040. They all need either to rent (which means ROI for investors who buy property for renting out) or to buy property It’s almost X2 of current population. I highly disagree with calling this growth “abnormal” . It’s healthy - people choose Dubai over other cities like London, Miami, Chicago, Beijing, Moscow , and 86 other countries It’s because Dubai created these environment (conditions for doing business , for education, safety , level of service and products you can get here etc) Now this environment attracts a lot of people who move with families to make their living here . Why would property cost more in cities that loose competition for best performing people to Dubai? Why should that be ? If business people, online entrepreneurs, etc who can live anywhere in the world choose Dubai, why should residential prices be lower than the cities that have lower life standards? Think of this as the most healthy indicator where prices will grow. It’s not something short term. Dubai is winning global competition for multillionaires and billionaires who establish their main bases here and move families . Along with many other “ordinary” people . Dubai is not cheap place any more as I read between the lines in your message. It’s best performing city and world champion right now - it can’t be disputed because it’s concrete fact - people who can live anywhere move to Dubai and bring their offices /families and employees here 🤝 By the way; share of mortgage deals in Dubai is less than 5% of all market deals. 60% deals are done in offolan, 40% in secondary market - ready properties . And amoung this secondary deals only 5% are mortgage deals. Bad mortgages amoung them less than 0.01% If this is dinal figures for you to make a decision to invest 😅

[@JoshuaTree-j5f]

@KamilMagRealEstate Some of your points are valid, and some of them lag sound backing off data. I consider dubai the best place for investment purely from long-term investment. However, I want it to happen in a stable manner and not in a cyclical manner. 1) The population increase is short term as there is significant migration from country either were migration from countries which are either going in war like russia and ukraine housing crisis like China and lastly from countries like Canada and US due to housing bubble in there respective countries.So when such things normalizes they would repatriate or may liquidate the property held in the country (2) If all the foreign investors were so confident, then a significant strata would have bought new ready property rather than off plan.As off plan give them the leeway to park short term cash and flip it later (30-40% for prominent builders for some cheap builder even less) .This itself indicates s of the appreciation doesn't have a strong basis. (3) significant premium for off plan properties . I have seen some locations (don't want to name it)where offplan properties are as expensive as 1000 per sqft compared to new ready property. I personally have visited some new hyped up areas and what I saw is nobody living in such spaces. Can you please guide of you feel the supply is adequate? Why are so many good new buildings are empty check out dubai creek harbour for an example. (4) certain prime locations like jbr which are high in demand are witnessing there downfall from past many years. One reason being besides traffic thaat area has less or almost no off plan avenue for short term money to be parked. However I personally feel that area still has usp and potential sustain the prices. (5) Salary ,income and wages are not just driver of the mortgage market. They are prime reason for driving the rental market and that is one of the prima facia for any real estate market. That is still yet to significant growth. (6) golden visa is granted to real estate investor and employees which is commendable move implemented but such thing should be given to investors who has paid 100% of the property value else this may cause sudden drift as some investors may choose to repatriate post normalization in there own country. (7)Everyone in this market is being totally agnostic of the current geo political situation . As a gulf state it shares common sea with the country that is in danger. Due to which some countries have already started issuing travel advisory for safety of their citizens.This may have some potential impact on the The only point I want to make from all this discussion is that let's make this place perpetual and sustainable growth . So that every investor develops a sense of long-term investment not by buzz marketing.

[@JoshuaTree-j5f]

@KamilMagRealEstate One of the important piece of data I ever want to look at is the occupancy rate in freehold residential property, and that will convey everything which for some reason, is never published.

[@KamilMagRealEstate]

@@JoshuaTree-j5f downtown - 95-98% occupancy rate as per AIRBNB report. Independents report that showcases where in the world it’s more profitable to do Airbnb business. You can Google it Average occupancy rate in touristic areas in Dubai - 86-90%

[@kannanictmedia789]

Insightful questions to the interesting and insightful interviewer and interviewee. It would be lovely to hear answers from Kamil and Wali Khan, but I guess they wouldn't.

[@3840441]

I have offplan

[@straightpath8356]

Podcast was very insightful but host was interupting Kamil a lot, I hope we viewers didn't miss out on a lot of insider info😢

[@realtorrasheeddubai]

Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024: A Global Shift in Housing Markets, But Dubai Remains Resilient As inflation-adjusted housing prices have dipped by an average of 15% in major western cities since mid-2022, we are witnessing strong market corrections, particularly in cities previously deemed high-risk for real estate bubbles. Cities like Frankfurt, Munich, Stockholm, HongKong, and Paris are experiencing real price drops of 20% or more. Vancouver, Toronto, and Amsterdam have also seen notable declines of around 10% in real terms. However, not all markets are slowing down. Dubai continues to defy global trends, showcasing remarkable resilience. While cities like Paris and Hong Kong face ongoing corrections, Dubai's property market, along with Miami, continues to surge. This growth is driven by high demand in sought-after locations and favorable market conditions. As global markets shift, Dubai's real estate continues to be an outlier, attracting investors and end-users alike with its unique blend