The Crash Of the UAE Property Market

[@barnabycrompton]

I disagree. Like all cities there are a range of contractors and finishes. Whilst prices are not always reflective of this fact there is definitely an understanding of who the good/mid and bad developers are.

[@moeszyslak7304]

The Build Quality can be compromised during construction in the UAE. Time pressure during building a main factor. Working during the hotter months can't be easy on the labour either.

[@barnabycrompton]

True all over the world my friend

[@SinghCapital]

I rather hold Bitcoin than real estate. In a few years my Bitcoin will buy me twice as many homes. I started buying in BTC in 2014 and since then its out preformed real estate. I dont expect that to change.

[@barnabycrompton]

It’s a volatile asset class but it has its benefits, undeniably. You know where to come when you’re cashing out to buy a home

[@WealthyHealthyPro]

Bitcoin is quickly demonotizing all major legacy store of value assets.

[@kimioapps3536]

Like you guys said, the majority of the market is apartments and townhouses that are getting more and more unaffordable for those living here and those coming from abroad would have to be very well off to afford a 20% DP on something comparable to what they had back home. Salaries are not going up, rents are increasing, prices are increasing and there is no respite in sight. The majority of people who run Dubai (the working class) will hit a breaking point very soon...everyone I know has moved in the past year or plans to move this year due to unaffordability. The person who could afford a 2mil loan 3 years ago will still only be able to get a 2mil loan but will be able to afford 30-40% less square footage and further away than they wanted. Traffic is getting worse and the Dubai of old is slipping away.

[@barnabycrompton]

@@kimioapps3536 Dubai is definitely becoming a more location based market. As the population grows the location of the communities begin to justify their prices and communities “further out” are seen as more affordable. Not everyone in the UK can afford to live in Mayfair.

[@darshanmegchiani6356]

hows the traffic in london kimioapps3536

[@alexsorov1958]

What I am observing is the “popular “ areas are increasing in rent but peripherals are quite cheap and sqm is bigger . The jebel Ali region is not “that” far from the center prices are almost the half and sqm is much bigger I know its not fancy as down town or marina but it’s quite affordable

[@kimioapps3536]

@alexsorov1958 ​ I actually observed that sqft is getting smaller (ie a 3 bd townhouse that would be 2000 sq ft in the Springs or Arabian Ranches is now 1600 in the "not so far" away locations). Rooms are getting smaller and yards look like prison blocks. What communities in Jebel Ali are you referring to? PS - not being combative just sharing my observations (gotta have a trigger warning nowadays :)

[@kimioapps3536]

​@@barnabycrompton I wouldn't consider say the Springs "Mayfair"...for townhouses that are in desperate need of renovation that have been purchased and flipped numerous times, it is not so much the community justifying it's price so much as a result of other forces. There is no reason why a 1680 sqft undersized 2 bedroom TH that is 17 yrs old old and poorly laid out be priced at 3 million or $800,000! (especially not when it was 40% of that a couple years ago). People have just kept raising the floor price in communities like that and cannot justify selling lower hence the inflated prices.

[@FadhlAhmed]

When the narrative is, 'this time is different' you best believe we're peaking.

[@Ahmed_ashfaqestate]

What do you mean the U.S economy is not struggling as an Arab American I can assure you the economy and the realestate is suffering tremendously, just look at our National Debt it's at all time high 34Trillion dollars to be exact, shortage in housing, highest mortgage delinquent payments reported this year and watch the foreclosures kick in meaning more homeless people out in the streets.

[@barnabycrompton]

@@Ahmed_ashfaqestate I agree with you when it comes to the real estate market. I also believe that the economy, compared to several other coutures is prosperous. It may not be as prosperous as it used to be but on a global scale, it has a lot to offer.

[@francoisdonnet3625]

First, a market doubling in the span of 2-3 years is not healthy. Then you mentioned the inflow of people's. OK but what is the average salary of these families coming? No one knows, there are no statistics about it. Salaries are stagnating, all prices from food to school had increased dramatically. Middle and lower classes are squeezed and moving away from Dubai. Business is doing fine but industrial base remains limited. Unlike ksa which is getting stronger. Bottom line, less affordable properties, lots of units to be on the market in 2025, less people's able to afford to pay 2-4 M for a townhouse and interest rate is not going down enough. Do the math, you buy a 2M villa, 20% DP, 6% fees, 4-5% interest on mortgage, so you had 3-400k aed. Now your villa cost is almost 2.5M. To break even your property needs to appreciate by 25%! Insane.

[@victorialancaster9092]

The Dubai property market has always been a subject of speculation regarding potential crashes due to several recurring factors: Rapid Boom-and-Bust Cycles;Oversupply Concerns;Dependency on Foreign Investment;Speculative Buying and Investor Activity;Economic Diversification Challenges. When you look into it deeper you can clear the concerns but most of the overseas based realtors don’t 😊

[@barnabycrompton]

We’re in quite a unique position now where Dubai is genuinely being seen as a place to set up homes and businesses now rather than an amazing holiday destination alone. There is an argument that we may even see an undersupply of properties handing over if the population keeps growing at its current rate. Time will tell.

[@icb323423]

I think it is difficult to rent out real estate for 200,000 when the average worker (with a bachelor degree) only earns 150,000. Those who earn significantly more buy and don't rent. I have no idea what everyone is building for. My opinion.

[@MohHus-r7o]

Chances of reflation rises, don't see much inflation is coming down. that might effect the rising cost of construction?? Cost if living in Dubai has increased since last 2 years unlike pre covid. More influx of people will make More competitive and crowded.

[@barnabycrompton]

@@MohHus-r7o Competition is great for business

[@CyberBeatsLab]

I expect the UAE property market to crash when the government starts to go after money laundering and sanctions evasion. The plan is already drafted, it will start next year and end in 2026. The real reason the prices are this high is because UAE banks implemented FATF few years ago and UAE got out of the grey list. So, money launderers that could not use the financial system anymore started using the real estate market. It is a bubble and it is going to burst.

[@barnabycrompton]

I appreciate the comment CyberBeastLab but how can you use real estate to launder money when the developers use banks who won’t accept cash payments over AED 50’000. The implementation to prevent money laundering has been in place for years so I’m not sure I agree with your assessment.

[@CyberBeatsLab]

@@barnabycrompton via hawala networks, cryptocurrencies, and transactions between intermediaries. The canary in the goldmine are luxury properties: when the volume of secondary sales start going down, it often indicates that ML and sanction evasion activities are slowing down.

[@vishalmange2656]

@@barnabycromptonthere comes PMS in hand and opening several companies and deposit amount to fund purchases in dubai realty -

[@P00kyLikesFoxies]

@@barnabycrompton Im selling apartments in Dubai where developers accept 100% in cash

[@earealestate2961]

Outstanding post! This information is a game-changer.

[@barnabycrompton]

@@earealestate2961 Thank you

[@TOMDXBSCOT]

They are building apartments complexes with swimming pools on the balcony. Dubai apartments leak when it rains. What's the chances all those pools can retain their own water. 😅😅😅

[@barnabycrompton]

I would imagine the very definition of the pool is that it retains its own water but the overflow might be an issue 😂

[@TOMDXBSCOT]

@barnabycrompton I understand what you say but belive me when I tell you swimming pools leak.

[@kvio3321]

US Dollar collapse and UAE de-pegging from USD will be the crash. It will be the opportunity of a lifetime to acquire real estate in Dubai.

[@barnabycrompton]

I don’t see a period in our lifetime where the AED will depeg.

[@kvio3321]

@@barnabycrompton One scenario is rapid strength rise of the USD while other global currencies fall. Dollar milk shake theory provides one hypothesis for this occurring.

[@scotland2196]

You only need to research other countries to get a better indication, you can never predict for sure. Take Spain for example a few decades ago. They had a construction boom that lasted 20 years before it began to slow down. And Spain not being a relatively new country compared to Dubai, UAE. Feel free to reach out to me for unique property deals and investments not on the open market.

[@barnabycrompton]

@@scotland2196 A shameless plug scotland2169… I love it 😂 Keep up the good work

[@mwilalwando8767]

I feel like dubai will be a place the wealthy or comfortable European families will move to Dubai and then start migration out into Africa and some Asian countries as they will need to survive The ability to save will prompt them to move out

[@barnabycrompton]

If they bring their companies then there will be space for everyone.

[@javadbacker481]

At last a video with realistic commentary. Need to follow this channel.

[@barnabycrompton]

Appreciate the comment. Thanks

[@Johndoe10007]

Guys UAE great and exciting place to in northern hemisphere winter 🥶 months but how are you suppose to settle in a happy life when it’s 40-45 degrees and you chase air con which has its own health problems … UAE in summer months is more miserable than a European winter 🥶 and getting warmer each year and for me why it would only be a part time travel destination

[@barnabycrompton]

@@Johndoe10007 if you’re part of the fortunate few you can leave the city for the worst of the heat in the summer months but if you do decide to take advantage of the doubtless rewards working here has, you’re 100% right. The summers can be brutal. 😁

[@RobertKoenekamp-u9q]

With over 17M tourists annually, a shortage of short-term rentals, and a growing population set to hit 6M by 2040, demand for housing remains robust. Add in the influx of Fortune 500 companies and their employees, and the market appears to be on solid ground.

[@barnabycrompton]

@@RobertKoenekamp-u9q The growth of industry here is the key to the growth of the population. More companies = more people

[@TheGreaterBenefic]

For a person who has lived here for the past 20 years statements like "the property crash is not going to happen" sounds like the only hilarious joke these guys have produced in the entire podcast 😂 Let me educate you about property market circles and remind you of the property market all time high of 2007 😂

[@Cloudnine4201]

In my country 1 apartment costs 3millions, it's so reasonable price.in uae to buy property without any taxes with benefits such as golden visa

[@barnabycrompton]

I appreciate the comment

[@ganifarm72khan45]

Excellent Podcast

[@barnabycrompton]

@@ganifarm72khan45 Thank you

[@judecoutinho1494]

Completely disagree that the market in dubai will crash - caption is wrong

[@barnabycrompton]

@@judecoutinho1494 Did you listen to the podcast or just read the caption? 😉

[@willia_mbrown]

Awesome pod

[@barnabycrompton]

@@willia_mbrown Thanks William

[@TradeX-VIP]

I think it’s gonna get a correction in 2026 with so much supply getting dumped on to the market. No affordable housing here for average people so if high net worth people stop migrating, which will happen due to dubai not offering citizenship rights, I believe this market will correct.

[@barnabycrompton]

@@TradeX-VIP The wealthy are being offered passports and mid range income are being offered 10 year multiple entry visas so there are great lengths being taken to ensure that people remain in the UAE. In regards to the “over supply” it’s all linked to population growth. As long as the population keeps growing it will sate the supply of incoming ready properties.

[@TradeX-VIP]

@@barnabycromptonpassports are offered to the super wealthy. They don’t make up the majority of people living in Dubai. 10 year visas don’t come with citizenship rights. Investing in a country with no citizenship rights is a huge risk. You only know this when something goes wrong. More and more people are acknowledging this plus the summer heat is unbearable for most. I think the novelty of this place is wearing thin for a lot of people especially families. I’m not sure they will be able to attract families to migrate here (which is their intended purpose with all the townhouses that are being built). I think 2026/2027 there will be an oversupply of handovers and a lot of supply will flood the market and we will see a correction. 250k a year are coming in but how many existing people are leaving? Attracting younger single people is still fairly easy job but attracting families with children is a different matter and I don’t think that purpose will be achieved. Let’s see what happens in coming years.

[@vishalmange2656]

It was predicted that market will fall in 2024 due to - lot of handovers of project - But then even after handovers there is a gap in demand supply - and demand is still higher then supply

[@fahedsayed2201]

The bubble will burst. We are in a bubble there is no doubt about it. I reckon in 2026 we will see a global crash. However Dubai will be the first one to bounce back.

[@michaelaleksov1224]

Out of touch. Most people in UK, Canada and US are struggling, what are you talking about? Plenty of people in Canada working 2 or 3 jobs just to survive.

[@barnabycrompton]

@@michaelaleksov1224 I Don’t think I mentioned Canada and I’d be interested to see the data of the average amount of jobs per person in US and UK. I know plenty of people in the UK and they are only working 1 job. I’m happy to be proven wrong if you have the data

[@sulekhaprasannan4093]

Good place to download funny money.

[@barnabycrompton]

@@sulekhaprasannan4093 You mean crypto?

[@mustafayavuzaytin3334]

It will crash. Big time.