The Central Bank Endgame with Guest Grant Williams - The Loonie Hour Episode 135

Governments are broke, and central banks are trying to maintain the illusion of stability. The next decade will not be like the last one, prepare for volatility. Inflation, interest rates, and political risks abound. House prices have created massive inequality and threaten social stability. Where do we go from here, and how do we plan for the central bank endgame? This week's interview with special guest Grant Williams.
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#TheLoonieHour #Macroeconomics #PersonalFinanceCanada

[@hersdera]

We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.

[@jones9-]

Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.

[@Jersderakerguoe]

You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst

[@SandraDave.]

Could you possibly recommend a CFA you've consulted with?

[@Jersderakerguoe]

My CFA ’Melissa Terri Swayne’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@HectorWhitney]

Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.

[@geraldbrowne]

WOW... WHAT A GREAT GUEST CATCH. This guy's rep is legend. Shows the looney hour is best of Canada.

[@robnisbet6797]

You got that right!

[@sketchin6993]

Grant has been saying the same thing more than a decade. Dump all your money into gold and exploration srock and lose your shirt while the markets went up hundreds of percent over that time. I guess there are still some new sucker's joining the game if people haven't heard of grant Williams. Lol

[@JeffSSartor]

I don't think he's wrong. He's early. But I bet this happens in our lifetime​@@sketchin6993

[@geraldbrowne]

@@sketchin6993 actually he has been saying to be diversified. His doomsday hedge is gold. He is more bonds then equities player. He has seemed like a “chicken little” but Grant admits his miss fires. My take is gold and diamonds if you want to cruise through reset. But hedge your doom.

[@sherdonforbes3480]

The Great Canadian peso is coming to a city near you folks

[@Observer168]

Yes, the value of money always goes down. That’s why you must buy assets like real estate and ETFs

[@Casey-qm1nd]

Can you guys get Mark Mitchell on the show. I really loved this guest as well so thank you. Mark Mitchell is a London Mortgage Broker and is always ahead of the pack. Super underrated.

[@CalCalCal6996]

I second this. Mark is great and I'm keen to hear him in a longer form!

[@ekdeepgill1020]

I third this!

[@brodieobrien-pickering2202]

Yeah mark is good shit

[@xxrudebouyxx1363]

U can feel the stress in people lately, everyone has a on edge vibe wherever I go. Must be tough times out there

[@SzymonStas]

Boomers aren’t feeling the stress, I can tell you that. Just the young folks.

[@xxrudebouyxx1363]

@@SzymonStas true, only the broke boomers lool mostly 25-40 is what I’m seeing

[@TheNewSchoolGamer]

@@xxrudebouyxx1363 I believe Millennials now make up the biggest cohort so it's a good chunk of Canadians that are on edge. After the lockdowns major cities like Toronto definitely have a different vibe

[@vinh7ran]

Just 2 years or so ago, the tone of the convo usually revolves around how cheap debt was, how cash is trash and everyone should load themselves up with debt. Fast forward to now, it's complete 180, trying to delevered, sovereign debt is unsustainable, etc... Things sure change real fast, kinda curious what we'll be talking about 2 years from now

[@HaydonAshurstFamily]

Cash is still trash

[@Observer168]

Yes cash is still trash, inflation kills the value of currency

[@edubmf]

Grant is completely correct about capital controls. Example: mandatory cpp contributions Mandatory cpp Canadian investment

[@valerienikkel3072]

I am watching this podcast from London, UK tonight. Over 20 pounds for fish n chips and 11 pounds for a glass of Rose. There were protests today on the streets of London against the mayor and the unbelievable taxes and cost of living. People are very unhappy!

[@NavyMoo5e]

Great interview again guys. Thank you for getting guys like Grant on your show. Whatever microphone Grant’s using sounds very good. Everyone should grab one of those. That filter helps decrease the tone and smoothed out his voice.

[@Picklemedia]

@40:02 house prices need to fall 75% to become affordable.

[@geraldbrowne]

Not going to happen. The lack of housing will keep prices to 30-40 % decline. Lack of trades will diminish new builds along with material costs and government DCC charges to stave off their individual municipal decline.

[@Picklemedia]

@@geraldbrowne same amount of homes per people as there was in the year 2000.

[@DJRS2178]

@@geraldbrowne what are you smoking? Im sure a few months ago you were saying there would be no crash and new highs would be coming soon. There is no lack of housing. Investors/speculators/Airbnb bought up all the supply at near 0% rates. There's more cranes in the sky than ever, building homes that are yet to be complete. Do you think migrants all make more money than the average canadian that cant buy a home? Low supply and immigration was the narrative to get the last fools to buy and fund the end of the boom cycle. Now rates are high, inflation, job loss looming... the bust awaits. Inventory to market is trending up, watch it explode as people get squeezed further through all the things mentioned plus higher taxes. It's over.

[@donm2067]

​@@geraldbrowneif people can't afford to live and giant swaths of the country are from a different country.... What do you think is going to happen? Lol

[@rastislavvelkamorava1624]

@@geraldbrowne Not going to happen (because you're a bag holder) is pathetic wishful thinking.

[@b-rare]

The end game is be pay cheque to pay cheque and own nothing

[@markhoffman]

They’re trying, but it never works. Humanities free will is too powerful.

[@donm2067]

They will never take my beets

[@b-rare]

@@markhoffman years of brainwashing

[@wayneknodel3347]

Great guest and discussion, as usual! I agree with Grant's concerns about societal breakdown. Financial and asset shocks alone can and will be absorbed, albeit with painful consequences. However, couple that with the insane policies of governments everywhere forcing unsustainable, poorly conceived and implemented changes on poulations already stretched thin financially, they have created a time bomb no "climate policy" and the like can stop. And let's face it, every area of our bloated government in Canada (and likely all western nations) make the 3 Stooges look like geniuses. What hope does the average bear have?

[@chrisb5048]

This was a great discussion. Im scared to see the outcome of all this

[@bat2275]

If your parents saved their money and had the financial discipline to buy a house then their family deserves to he better off than the people who rented and blew their money on cars boats vacations etc

[@Picklemedia]

You can say the same about Bitcoin but alas it's a lot about luck

[@edubmf]

Canada, where stupid offspring can become prime minister.

[@windatar6351]

There are lot more "have nots" then "haves" in the economy, which is generally a divide the guest was talking about it. Except this time its generational. In one or two election seasons whoever is elected will have the voice of the mass "have nots" we know how this goes.

[@Observer168]

@@windatar6351actually 60% of Canadians are home owner so more owners than renters

[@windatar6351]

@@Observer168 How many home owners are in a safe position with their mortgage? If we had a healthy market then this wouldn't be bad but the interest rates haven't hit most Canadians yet, Steve talks about it quite a bit. However if even 1/4th of that 60% forecloses, well that "majority Canadians are home owners" kind of shifts in the other direction. A lot of home owners, younger ones especially are way over leveraged for their homes. What happens when people are forced to sell? The market gets saturated with stock and all those new home owners that bought at the top of the price for homes have to sell at a loss. Flipping that 60% home owners on its head.

[@veeo987]

What an enlightening guest! I really hope he comes back at one point. Very interesting.

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Thanks, Vee.

[@JP_Dimitriou]

Great questions and conversation.

[@jadejackson1509]

Watching a bunch of realtors squirm at the idea of 9% interest is my favourite thing.

[@Observer168]

Realtors already made buckets of cash in the last 10 years. Steve is a multimillionaire

[@HardKnocks-pi7pc]

Why does he have a mortgage if he is a multi millionaire or are you suggesting he has millions in real estate equity ? There is a difference between equity and being a truely liquid millionaire. The equity can disappear and will disappear if rates stay at these levels where as the liquid millionaire loves these rates and wants them to go even higher. It could get to a point 2 or 3 years from now like what took place in the mid to late 80s where banks would not lend against equity in real estate. What is everyone going to do if that happens ? Dont say it cant happen as its happened in the past and its already started to happen with commercial

[@Observer168]

@@HardKnocks-pi7pc no risk no reward… take risk or get left behind. The value of money always goes down so time is on your side. The ones that held since the 80s and 90s are now mortgage free. Far better than those that didn’t buy and rent into retirement. You might have laughed at them but they became the ones that own the homes. Pensions don’t even cover todays rents

[@HardKnocks-pi7pc]

I own my house clear and free and i paid 1.2 million in 2005 and its currently worth 3.5 according to a friend who is a realtor but on my books i value it at 2 million and i could care less if the value of real estate falls 70 bringing it down to what i paid 19 years ago as long as they leave rates between 5 and 7.5 percent for the next 15 years

[@Observer168]

@@HardKnocks-pi7pcrenting sucks, good for you to own real estate. The value of money always goes down

[@dalec2407]

That was a great interview, wow Grant on the looney hour! Now lets talk about the opportunities....

[@geraldbrowne]

Steve is being COY. It is clear the stagflation coming to Toronto and Vancouver will be NEW YORK epic 70's .. LOL.

[@Nasrumashik]

He is a real estate agent, ehat do u expect?...

[@geraldbrowne]

@@Nasrumashik "personal self interest" - like everybody. can't hide it completely.

[@maxamillion8384]

if you notice the credit cycle is repeat oh the 70s and 80s fed will cut and inflation will rip and then the 15 to 20+ %

[@Observer168]

The oil crisis caused inflation back then

[@richchay]

best episode I have listened to of Loonie hour. Great discussion, please have him on again in future.

[@DrMarkyMark]

They can’t build new homes at 30% of the current market prices. How in the heck does the math work. House prices are a function of new supply cost. I own a million dollar duplex in Montreal. Find one builder who can build a duplex in Montreal for 300 $ K.

[@gregbaxter3249]

Awesome guest please have him on again!

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Sure thing, Greg.

[@handaferguson]

Great Job!!! Thank You... :-)

[@nickzivs]

Grant is a great guest and his podcast is fantastic. As for the quagmire we’re in,he is right that there is simply too much wealth concentrated in the hands of too few people as a result of 40 years of falling rates and that will have to correct to the mean or there’s likely to be a period of civil unrest. Housing is our asset bubble in Canada and it just so happens that people need shelter as a basic neee thus it’s even more conflagrating than a stock market bubble. I’m not super wealthy other than my parents having wealth, so I don’t know where I’ll fall, but tbh I just want markets again. Doubt that’ll ever happent though, things are too fucked through manipulation for the manipulators to let them naturally resolve.

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Hi Nick. 30 years of rates always trending lower combined with 12 years of zip/nirp/qe has really distorted most people's view and expectation of the interest rate cycle. Understanding this is crucial for everyone.

[@dirtlump]

General observation in advanced western economies..... "when money's tight, people fight" which is being evidenced in the ever more polarized political sentiments we're seeing in Canada(and across the EU)..... and currently being compounded by multicultural based divisions emergent within the polarization.

[@Iliinois18]

3rd world people make a 3rd world country.

[@correnakelly]

This was the most interesting and thought-provoking episode yet. Thank you.

[@Picklemedia]

@50:36 reminds me of: 'shocked people pick the wrong targets' (Chris Martenson)

[@Picklemedia]

@39:30 hey Rich, 'Fanny Bay oysters' has the best smoked oysters I have ever had.

[@Memento-_-Mori-_-982]

I've been missing for a while in my weekly dose of looney hour, but what an episode to come back to! Well done boys👏👏👏

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Thanks, M.

[@yellowstoic7678]

Best episode so far imo.

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Thank you.

[@yellowstoic7678]

​@@icecapassetmanagementlimit849Thank you guys for bringing awareness to issues in Canada

[@jeffotoole4509]

Grant is an absolute finance rock star. Great get on him. Thank you for this interview.

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Thanks, Jeff.

[@thejuice3819]

Glad this guys came on. You guys harp too much about government debt while consumer debt is a far worse problem

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

HH debt certainly is a problem for many.

[@lynnspencer7753]

Wonderful conversation with Grant.

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

We really enjoyed it as well.

[@rdefacendis]

You don't need to orchestrate this grand transfer of wealth... old people die and leave their houses and portfolios to their kids. Typically, however it is not one household leaving all assets to one kid.. More likely one household to two or three kids... so the wealth is split and diluted. The other issue is longevity. While money is "useful" at any age, inheriting your parents home with the green bath tiles and almond fridge when you are 70, doesn't really assist with your aspirations to become a home owner.

[@richardpowell1389]

What a great episode.

[@maxamillion8384]

heHe capital controls next step is cuban style fairness shit for ALL lol

[@dirtlump]

I fully concur with the assertion the financial system as we've known it 'endgame' is indeed happening far sooner than most are anticipating.... and I have utilized the descriptive term 'normalcy bias' therein ? in attempt to highlight an almost obtuse prevailing blase attitude that very simply.... flys in the face of reason of supposedly smart people's due diligence to presenting data fundamentals anywhere one looks ? To me the levels of absolutely unsustainable metrics being completely ignored..... is just mind boggling ?

[@Casey-qm1nd]

Good guest

[@maxamillion8384]

the only way out of this mess is INFLATION baby

[@kelpeyehelp]

Friendly technical feedback to equalize volumes in post editing before release - guest was a bit quiet and hard to understand at "office volume"

[@mikebroughton8644]

Agreed. With the fancy microphones, it shouldn't be difficult. I made a comment a few weeks ago about hearing the Boomer perfectly well when he didn't have the microphone, better than the other two with the microphone. I wish podcasts would ditch these things. I can hear much better without them.

[@donm2067]

Rich is now regretting blowing his opsec. Security through obscurity Rich, remember that next time lol.

[@AmolGharat]

However, average person is still in the lalaland hoping for rates coming down and house prices to 🚀🚀🚀 It is getting awkward 😅

[@jennychong7972]

Always an interesting podcast. Thank you guys

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Hi Jenny, thank you for the kind words.

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

First Baby!

[@sherdonforbes3480]

Dang it boomer lol. Take care brother and may you have a prosperous day

[@ethimself5064]

🤣🤣🤣

[@rastislavvelkamorava1624]

@@sherdonforbes3480 He's only playing a boomer on TV.

[@spencerpool7590]

Great guest. Great show

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Thanks, Spencer.

[@marcoalbanese8221]

Another banger episode. I’m sure you guys and many listeners have read Nomi Prins’ All the Presidents Bankers but for those who haven’t, it’s a great read on how the global financial system’s roots started and continues via the US. Please recommend a good read!! You guys should recommend a good book reflecting these topics you guys fantastically cover. Thanks guys!! Have a great weekend!!

[@stevevanpion3265]

Great interview...wish u all had explored this price control failure though more with Grant as I see that the path forward......my info is Japan (per the stories of bonds moving out of Switzerland to Italy) is owed back all the money used to take down the 1980s Soviet Union and still not repaid ?? And that is where all this negative rates started !! Maybe next time..great stuff Grant.

[@skliu]

The main question is can you control inflation, if you can control inflation then what it means is that the total production of the system (and total production is always the goal) is enough to sustain whatever demand there is. I think we are over thinking this by a wide margin. We have to go back to first principles, if there is enough productive capacity to meet or for the large part in the 2010s exceed demand, then government can do whatever it needs to do. The issue is that we clearly saw that there was a limit to this happening as we saw inflation, now we need to see if the world economy can cope with the myriad of geopolitical and demographic challenges and go back to the engine that produced the low inflation world of the previous decade.

[@skliu]

The other issues i that there is one train of thought right now which i believe is the risk that everyone is discounting. People assume that we can't go back to low inflation environment. And that is because of demographics and geopolitics, hence why you see long term US treasuries just take a beating. If anything, this is the biggest blind spot in the capital markets. While I think that odds are we are not going back there, I have seen too many technological innovations, US shale, just in time manufacturing, AI, etc, that I wouldn't rule that possibility out. You will still get the societal issues with the distribution of abundance but to assume that we can't get back to abundance is a mistake. For one thing, GPT 4's improvement versus GPT 3 is astounding and if you can imagine what AI will do for productivity, it will be a boom in abundance. Our issue is that our government isn't investing enough in innovation to take advantage of it.

[@DominelliGuitars]

great guest guys! Upping your macro game!

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Thanks, man.

[@sfrelick]

Grant is a good speaker and assuming he is a good writer (not a subscriber to his newsletter). Problem is he has been saying the same thing for 10+ years. Would love to know where he actually puts his money because if he has taken his own advice he would be down bad. Has been saying the cows are coming home about Australian real estate for as long as I can remember. It is easy to be a doomer get it right once a decade and then post the tweets. I do find him entertaining just be careful when you don't know where his skin in the game actually is.

[@enoughisenough670]

Peter schiffs been playing that game for 20 years 😂

[@Mark-id7fq]

It would take a very ugly recession to drop housing in half or worse, in that cause job losses would be so great no one would afford a cheap house even.

[@maxamillion8384]

in the end real price discovery will reveal true value

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

100%

[@donm2067]

The suppression of true price discovery is massive, from commodities to houses.

[@NaoCut]

Would loooove to see a 10% in Canada, it will be hard but would level all of our problems

[@Observer168]

It would just make the poor even more poor. Businesses would just charge more to offset the cost of interest to the customers

[@Observer168]

High interest rates won’t help you own a home

[@NaoCut]

@@Observer168 the poor owns nothing, and credit cards are already above 10%. So aside from consumer debt I don't see how the poor are impacted by an increase in interest rates. And it would bring investment to the Canadian market and put the breaks on real estate, maybe for good

[@Observer168]

@@NaoCut like I already said, businesses will just add the cost of interest to the cost of products like food

[@Picklemedia]

@9:30 it's called the long-term debt cycle. You should explain it to him Steve 😉

[@rastislavvelkamorava1624]

The Great Canadian defaulting debtors are coming to a city near you folks

[@shsal110]

All that production value, top tier guests and still no time stamps? T_T

[@morgank.1249]

Hot damn! Let’s go!

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Let's go!

[@TheGamingAbyss]

I will continue to work and make us dollars.

[@DustinTime101]

3rd cuz Saskatchewan and no one cares about our house prices. Correction 4th cuz SK prices are stupidly inflated to what we have here lol

[@markhoffman]

Hopefully they get Alex Jones on the show soon.

[@maxamillion8384]

higher for longer volker will blush just watch;)

[@quixomega]

One way to transfer money from the old to the young would be to reduce the working tax rate and reduce cash transfer programs like OAS.

[@Jo-mf2vu]

Another way would be to remove capital gains tax exemption from primary residences.

[@SzymonStas]

Secular bull market in commodities. Gold and silver are kicking it off.

[@rastislavvelkamorava1624]

Make sure it's physical only, otherwise you end up like Celente.

[@markhow4266]

Grant is Le-git!!

[@smity25ca]

Dollar debasement 🧐 houses go up along with everything else 😉

[@markhow4266]

Steve - crazy to rush this guy off.

[@HardKnocks-pi7pc]

He doesnt like what the guy has to say

[@ToBTCoT]

I’d wonder how he’d respond to the idea of not taxing Bitcoin. A new asset class, predominantly owned by younger people. Incentives people to SAVE in Bitcoin. It’s primarily damaging to the state/central banks as entities. Doesn’t hurt the old, young, rich or poor. Anyone can begin saving and transacting in Bitcoin.

[@AR-pr6mt]

guests volume too low? Its not rude to ask your guest politely to turn up the volume! :)

[@Picklemedia]

Imagine listening to this podcast if you spent the last 10 years Selling Houses to people? 🙉

[@Picklemedia]

@30:32 *lockdowns

[@maxamillion8384]

auto loans are first then that will flip over the mortgages

[@donm2067]

Prior to 2020, I was doing maintenance in car dealerships, I overheard many conversations of people who couldn't afford their new vehicle and came back to hopefully get a better payment. The solution was to always sell back the dealership the unaffordable vehicle that had say 60Mo term, buy from the dealership a lesser vehicle with 84Mo term which made the payment cheaper. The dealership cleans up on fake rich morons.

[@blackstonecontracting5324]

hate when people talk about mom and dad stroking a check, there NOT they also now have a new loan on something that's didn't so there kids can have a house so there mom and dad are paying in part there kids mortgage too there's no free equity check stroking

[@user-dy3hz9yf8h]

Rich what area is your cabin?

[@chrisT16161]

Second!

[@tomaga5856]

Fall 70%?

[@Picklemedia]

@42:36 the day of financial Reckoning may not come for *a year or two* 😮

[@donm2067]

Check historical timelines, major economic calamities happen in American election years and in the fall.

[@dutchgirl7603]

Grant williams and talking Loonie Hour speedo's ... about time you catered to the female boomer audience 😂 Have a great weekend everyone!

[@DTrent-uy1wl]

Told you clowns 2yrs ago home prices will fall 70%. Flying a Cessna thru a hurricane

[@maxamillion8384]

DIRE STRAIGHTS 'Money for Nothing "

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

amazing guitar...

[@LiDARs]

Control is like being a lady… I’m won.

[@chezbabi]

Grant Williams? Wow

[@icecapassetmanagementlimit849]

Super nice guy, too.

[@GoodDaySa]

This dudes ad reads are just gargling marbles man I hate it 😅😅😅

[@JD-hr6dr]

This guest Grant had absolutely nothing new or insightful to say.

[@Relaxlifeisshort2]

What are you talking about if you dont have immigration how is the population going to grow when people are only having 1 .3 kids. So immigration is needed. This guy is talking but saying nothing.

[@rastislavvelkamorava1624]

Wishing population growth is disgusting.

[@donm2067]

Maybe if people could afford kids and the courts didn't 🍆🍑 💦 fathers in divorce we would have more...

[@greengrass3835]

Affordable lifestyle and stop the male vs female propaganda. People will have kids