The Counterfactual Show: Reimagining History, with Stephen Kotkin | GoodFellows

[@Zero_Zero_Zero_Zero]

We love it when you guys have historian Joe Pesci on.

[@yj9032]

तमीज से बात कर

[@CarliMichelle]

Amen to that

[@beback_]

Please stop 😫😫

[@jlziux]

Kotkin on Goodfellas?? It’s Christmas, boys and girls

[@GentlemanJack705]

Kotkin! The man! The myth! The LEGEND!

[@mihaidumitrescu1325]

THE GOAT!

[@Filisteu1900]

Dr. Kotkin should be there more frequently 🎉 Highly entertaining 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[@syjiang]

Love to see Kotkin back!

[@retzlaffruns920]

Always happy to listen to Steven Kotkin. Such an interesting person to listen to.

[@Michael-tz7tj]

Stephen Kotkin. What a treat.

[@philipford6183]

A nice surprise to see Stephen Kotkin parachuted in to cover for the General. Also, a great many history fans enjoy counterfactuals. Thanks for this conversation!

[@rossmahon23]

Kotkin needs his own KZbin for all GeoPolitics he’d make a fucking mint.

[@ActFast]

YES!!! KOTKIN! KOTKIN! KOTKIN!

[@stooge389]

WHEN IS STEPHEN KOTKIN GONNA BE ON GOODFELLOWS AGAIN WHEN GOODFELLOWS WHEN

[@stooge389]

(I'm only 1 minute and 27 seconds in)

[@raymondswenson1268]

The armed forces conduct war games all the time, trying to explore possible conflicts and the way they can be resolved in our favor. Every proposal for new legislation is an argument that we can divert the course of social history into a better outcome. Part of military studies is reconsidering how past wars and battles could have been better resolved. During my five years at Strategic Air Command, I participated in exercises involving response to nuclear weapon accidents, and playing out recovery from nuclear attacks on the US. Answering these "What If" questions for possible future scenarios is essential to planning for government agencies.

[@dr.davidboisselle7399]

I feel so much smarter every time I watch the GoodFellows -- thank you!

[@stooge389]

HOLY SHIT GOODFELLOWS IN PERSON WITHOUT AN AUDIENCE!!!!! CHRISTMAS IS NOW MAY 16TH🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@hatalatesting6476]

Kotkin has absolutely upped his sartorial game. Man's got some drip fr

[@mihaidumitrescu1325]

So good when the kids are out to college and the money is flowing! Simply love the style. Maybe a darker navy coat would go a bit nicer... but all in all, great great great style!

[@bogeyb200]

I could listen to this all day, every day. Start a separate show like this. I'll pay for it

[@ParkSloper]

Did I hear that right...4 classes on T. Swift and none on Vietnam? Nothing wrong with teaching elements of Swift from music or business but I am shocked that not one history or political science course on Vietnam. Tell it like a true Jersey boy, Kotkin "I deal in big historical questions." Love it!!

[@A.Santos1]

I had already listened to this episode on Spotify. But only now, watching the video and reading the comments, have I been able to understand something that made me scratch my head throughout that audio conversation. The dissonance, not between history and counterfactual, but between reality and fiction when hearing a familiar voice, and now even the eyes, of Joe Pesci talking about philosophy of history and geopolitics.

[@RN-lo6xc]

Been waiting for this - amazing trio and an unmatched guest

[@ruairifahy1872]

A great show. Still ploughing my way through Kotkins Stalin x 3.

[@NNovoselski]

Yes Kotkin ❤❤❤❤

[@robsrockinout]

The amount of contention and relief in this conversation is both palpable and remarkable. Dr. Kotkin is an absolute mediator when it comes to historical disagreements. God bless you all and thank you for sharing this with the general public. Thank you for bringing order to this disarray.

[@benmirault5933]

God I could watch a 4 hour run of this show. 1.5 hours is never enough!!!!

[@obfuscati]

Goodfellows is behind the times. Let these guys expand on their ideas. What's with the hour time limit? It's not cable TV

[@katejoyce2725]

I get so excited every time I find a new video with Steven Kotkin!!!

[@richardhausig9493]

Prof Kotkin is the best. If I could have any 3 historical dinner guests, Kotkin would be one, imagine him questioning the other two.

[@steveclemons8191]

I love Stephen Kotkin. His expressions of humility are also very refreshing.

[@danp8950]

Brilliant discussion.

[@seanmellows1348]

Counterfactuals are indeed fun. Stephen Kotkin is always a real treat, thanks to all.

[@derekohachey]

I've watched Stephen Kotkin over the last decade and always appreciate his thoughts.. also want to observe one important trend about Dr. Kotkin, he is better dressed as the years progress! I challenge anyone who disagrees and welcome projections in how we will see him in 5 years! Great show once again guys!

[@alexandrebittencourttande3264]

I watch most of your talks, but I have to say this one was the best! Professor Kotkin is always a delight to hear from. Thanks!

[@lawrencefrost9063]

Why can't these be longer

[@henrymroth9455]

I love these guys! Including McMaster. Keep up the great work.

[@murryrozansky8753]

Fellow Kotkin, When is Stalin 3 going to be available? I hope to be able to read how his story ends before I do.

[@MMircea]

Joe Pesci back in the wolf's layer. A pleasure, as always

[@rsjmail]

Ferguson and Cochrane love to hear themselves talk about nothing. Not even Stephen Kotkin could save this episode. If they were talking about something that wasn’t sooo self-indulgent, maybe Kotkin would have made it watchable. Where’s H.R.? I can’t stomach the other two without him. And I think this is the first time I’ve Ferguson in six months where he hasn’t mentioned Cold War TOOOOO! His GENIUS insight! Who else in the whole world would have come up with rhetoric idea of adding II to Cold War to describe the exact same experience between the exact same powers a Second time. It’s GENIUS!!! Neal, you trademarked that right??

[@fabioj2000]

Kotkin taking Hoover to 1M subs is guaranteed at this point.

[@timobanon1865]

It always seems like the Goodfellows are having fun, even when arguing with one another. That's good stuff. We viewers are blessed if we enjoy it 1/2 as much as they do. I appreciate this level of scholarship being offered to all of us, for free. Thank you, sirs.

[@paulmobley9645]

I really liked this show so much on the topic of counter factuals. Star Trek had an episode of going back in time to stop Hitler. It raised similar questions about single "butterfly" events impact on the future of chaotic systems. Yet to take on the show with several was very nambitious. I could not enjoy it all at one sitting and would stop between transitions to the next. I also appreciate the humour and lighter side of the show to make the history lessons so enjoyable. What I did learn is the accident of Churchill in America not covered by many historians as a possible counterfactual event as was done on this very compelling show. THANKS for taking us on the trip.

[@excellentcomment]

Star Trek was [so great in part bc it was] almost nothing BUT counterfactuals: "a world like our own except..."

[@karthiknarayan1888]

Just want to say, with regards to the discussion about the contributions of the railroad to American Economic Growth, Robert Fogel in 1970 wrote a fascinating book on exactly this question. The correct counterfactual to railroad construction, he argues, is canal extensions and with that in mind, the marginal contribution of railroads to american economic growth was quite small

[@allanmcinnes4765]

Yep, African slavery and Chinese collies made America Great. That's not counterfactual.

[@Probez44]

Kotkin adds spice to the fellas. Make him more permanent. Great episode!

[@charlesf4778]

Niall should absolutely follow up with another counterfactual collection. I think that would be fascinating!

[@d0lvl0]

Thank God Kotkin is keeping the unfortunate partisanship of this show in check.

[@JT-qs4tv]

What a real pleasure these conversations are. Thank you.

[@pedrinhograna443]

Greetings from Brazil! 🇧🇷

[@HenryThree]

The problem with miracle counterfactuals isn't that they are impossible/implausible, it's that they introduce an infinite number of questions upon which the outcome of your imagined scenario will depend. For the "Napoleon with a B-52" example, the most basic of these questions would be "where did he get it?". While it is easy enough to provide "miracle" answers to such questions (i.e. "it just appeared out of thin air on the Versailles lawn"), there are an infinite number of such questions that require answering, for example: "how did he learn to fly it?", "how is he procuring fuel?", "how much do his own officers and soldiers understand about the machine and how did they learn it?", "how much do his enemies know about it?", etc. You can provide outright "miracle answers" for each of these but most may be subject to some degree of real-world factors, and without going through the infinite list of questions and determining that degree for each of them, your hypothetical scenario is impossible to define well enough to determine an outcome.

[@Thanos916]

Looking forward to this one.

[@jess7150]

Excellent conversation!

[@icecoldfroste]

Great show! Keep them coming! The Counterfactual questions are great and entertaining to listen to. Stephen Kotkin is always a great addition as well.

[@roc1234-j3f]

Its important to always take account of the counterfactual - the first occasion it was introduced was the Court of King's Bench - en banc.

[@lizgichora6472]

Enriching Historical Facts of WWII events to the present, " Beetles vs Stones? " Thank you very much Niall Ferguson, Stephen Kotkin, John Cochrane and H.R McMaster.

[@allanmcinnes4765]

Beatles

[@27natedogg1]

Wish they had John Goodman there to yell “Cochran you’re out of your element!”

[@mattieboy7777]

Kotkin is so witty. Great guest!!

[@RightSideNews]

Kotkin is great

[@roc1234-j3f]

Stephen Kotkin is a brilliant historian - the counterfactual when analyzed by reference to past events is an indicator of future - it's the concept of conflagrations.

[@cswanson4476]

11:51 Cochrane’s description of a “trend” in historiography is unrecognizable to me. I have, just this year so far, tore through several scholarly histories, written between 1997 or so and 2017: _Where the Negroes are Masters: An African Port in the Era of the Slave Trade_ by Sparks, _The Crucible of Islam_ by Bowersock, _Taming Manhattan: Environmental Battles in the Antebellum City_ by McNeur, _Horses at Work: Harnessing Power in Industrial America_ by Greene, _Treason in the Northern Quarter: War, Terror, and the Rule of Law in the Dutch Revolt_ by Nierop, and _This Vast Southern Empire: Slaveholders at the Helm of American Foreign Policy_ by Karp. Only the last two could be seen as attempting to assess responsibility for atrocities. But even they both proceed precisely as Cochran prescribes: by seeking to reconstruct the understandings, expectations, interests, fears and enthusiasms of the participants. I can only wonder what sort of historiography he has sampled.

[@seanmellows1348]

Yes, left wondering.

[@paularivero1878]

Great great great interaction among three brilliant people. Thank you so much. We need more of this amazingly complex arguments about methodology and epistemology in History❤❤

[@allanmcinnes4765]

So what's yer point Paula? Never ending rabbit holes of past historical events and the flukes of nature?

[@biggeordiecliffordd8609]

Seems to be a frisson between Neil & Stephen Kotkin. Adds to the pleasure of the discussion.

[@noogie13]

Kotkin simply outclasses the other two. Easily.

[@shawnzeppo4361]

Love Neil Ferguson's reference to Axis and Allies and other strategy games @30:29 . Historians need to play these games to experience simulated counter factuals, even if they are highly oversimplified like he mentions.

[@kingcrazymani4133]

John made a terrific point about correlation vs. causation. Crazyman abandoned the basic concept when the celestial cheat sheet was made available. Worth a discussion some day, maybe when John is in the Swamp. It’s looking as if I’m gonna have to be in the building in the thumbnail. 38:00. Prior to 1941, Zhukhov had been fighting the Imperial Japanese Army in Eastern Mongolia and Manchuria. Successfully. 1:00:00. Dr. Kotkin is leaving out someone he is supposed to know.

[@TalkernateHistory]

If Niall and Stephen linked up to make Virtual History II, that would be a dream come true

[@tigertiger1699]

I absolutely love the first point made… re building an understanding of what people were thinking/ considering…..🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

[@johnbentley7834]

Regarding America's War for Independence I have a few observations that may not have been discussed: 0. The British Empire didn't simply give up, the war became prohibitively costly at a time of considerable financial strain. 1. America could have outright lost the war, say in 1880; that doesn't imply America would not have fought another war, and another, until they would have ultimately won. The War of 1812, in fact, was another test. 2. The strong ideals of independence and liberty were, and still are very much American and not necessarily shared in the same degree elsewhere. 3. Canadian colonies had not the same core values, they were predominantly populated by loyalists; before and after the Revolution. 4. Today, Canada would not need to fight a war, they could simply decide to be a Constitutional Republic. They don't (same for Australia, New Zeeland). 5. Even to this day, immigrant populations mainly self select between USA and other countries, like Canada, based on idea affiliations of what they comsider to be most important to their lives. In my opinion, the United States would have ended in the same place, even if another route would have been necessary.

[@charlesdavis3802]

profound discussion. tyvm.

[@nathanngumi8467]

A great episode! The team should have made this episode in two parts to get through all nine counterfactuals instead of just four. The civil rights double episode of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson (which Dr. Condoleeza Rice featured in) is a good reference in this regard.

[@k.u.5798]

Kotkin episode, instant watch.

[@Emmu-Inrio]

Naill’s pointed remark about “historians aren’t novelists” raises a relevant idea about historiography, the act of writing history. Histories are written as a narrative - with a beginning, middle, and an end - because that’s how humans best process information. There’s no other way history can be written for a consuming general audience. And as factual history is written with a clean, tightly organized narrative structure of cause and effect, it gives the ILLUSION of determinism. As a result, the exercise of the counterfactual is viewed in haste as a frivolous or inconsequential to the understanding of the past. Needless to inform our company, the word “history” is Greek in origin of inquiry. However, its Old English root derives from Latin: story.

[@Aryan32459]

Revux impact is a testament to its unique approach.

[@crazypaulinquebec]

''4 classes on Taylor Swift and none on the Vietnam war - they are just trying to balance the kid's education...'' - geez, Stephen Kotkin has to sign up as a writer (or presenter) on SNL!! Too funny!! What a great mind and what a great sense of humor.

[@BuddyLee23]

They should counterfactual with Patton’s quote that we defeated the wrong enemy…👀

[@notlimey]

Yay! Collingwood - my guide to the study of history

[@chrisgreene2623]

Well that was just over an hour well spent with fascinating discourse.

[@Joseph-ax999]

This is a question I've often asked. What would have happened if the American revolution had failed? What would have happened to signers of the declaration of independence?

[@patrickevans8482]

When is Stalin Vol 3 coming?? Hurry up, please.😂

[@sashmartin9050]

It was really nice to see cooling down political cheering of Ferguson and Cochrane at the end... Still don't understand how those two intellectuals can have such a huge blind spot when it comes to Trump. Lack of guts probably... Thank you Mr Kotkin! And that is what is missing in most intellectuals from both sides of spectrum. Courage to stand against "your own" if needed, for the sake of truth and morality. And also to congratulate and acknowledge the "other side" when they are doing the right thing. That is what people expect from you guys, and that is what is in the end your responsibility toward the people out there. To shine some light of wisdom... desperately needed these days, must say. Can you imagine the world of politics without Woke stupidity and Trump craziness? These two aberrations grew up like a cancer in both political parties because of that kind of blind partisanship. Guys... Truth and honesty above all! And America above Democrats and Republicans! Always !!! Don't ever think right eye is better than your left... you need both for 3D vision.

[@Spudgun81]

What an excellent discussion. More of this please!

[@PJAlaska]

Excellent talk. Thank you

[@SJMPhotography]

When will volume three be released Stephen?

[@dankohlmeyer9172]

Best Goodfellows episode yet!

[@johnkeenan9834]

Best show in a long time. Love the topic. "You win if the other side gives up". The biggest WW2 what-if of all: France pushes they're invasion into Germany in 1939 and goes after the German invasion force and knocks them out before they get going. @Niall Ferguson - I challenge you to Axis and Allies - I'll even let you play the Allies 😎

[@majozishow]

My favourite podcast. Big fan from South Africa!

[@majozishow]

And excellent conversation!

[@Allen-fe1nq]

This is SO fun while educating! But I can feel John when he had no idea who Lord Halifax is.

[@DaboooogA]

Fantastic and thought-provoking discussion, thanks!

[@passerbyp8531]

Bravo!

[@ainslieberrafella]

I could feel my brain getting bigger as I watched this. 👍

[@rogerparkhurst5796]

Thank you! Always interesting when SK is on.

[@garbonomics]

I loved the playful nature of this episode as well as an interesting view of counterfactual history.

[@pgr3290]

Churchill has one of the maddest lives in modern history. Yes everyone knows him for leading Britain in WW2, but everything about his life and career is incredible. Yes you also may know about Gallipoli too. What about his prison escape across Africa? Do you know he was the driving force that greenlit the development money for the world's first tank and demanded mechanization of the army? He opposed severe terms on the defeated Germany in 1918, in a small minority. He got run over by a car in New York. He had personally met and knew at least nine presidents of the USA. He knew Mark Twain and Charlie Chaplin. He constantly tried to get to the front during WW2, nearly getting killed or captured more than once due to his proximity.

[@tommore3263]

Fascinating. Thank you gentlemen.

[@brianwallace9997]

Five Days in London: May 1940 by John Lukacs is a fantastic short read that focuses on how critical Churchill was in dealing with the defeatest sentiment in his government. (I think you can get a copy for under $10). Had Halifax been Prime Minister the outcome would been very different.

[@andrewyao9921]

Great fun to watch! It a melding of freshman year, late night pseudo-intellectual debates and middle aged, actual-intellectual PhD‘s. 😉

[@michaeljacobs4546]

Just after I wrote the below @ 11:00 Cochrane addressed my confusion, which makes sense in that I am much closer to being an economist than a historian.

[@a.s.clifton544]

The seating makes it look as if Mr. Ferguson is addressing a tennis match.

[@vz6365]

Who is for this to be weekly with all five good fellows?

[@akp167]

Crazy how this is free

[@raymondswenson1268]

If Japan had declared war on USSR, it could have interdicted the war materiel that was shipped across the Pacific from the US to Vladivostok.

[@jpmor7327]

This needs to be heard

[@sl1msn1per]

So much fun! Please do another one of these

[@juanmillaruelo7647]

Excellent deep dive. Wonderful!