The Dark Forest & The Fermi Paradox | Three Body Problem

In this clip from the podcast we discuss Cixin Liu's dark forest hypothesis as a solution to the Fermi Paradox.
Watch The Full Episode: • The Existential Terror...
"Why The Forest Is Dark": • Why is Space Malicious...
More Cosmic Chronicles: linktr.ee/cosmicchroniclespod...

[@hmm2206]

I can say that you changed my life because your videos made me want to read "Three body Problem" and my perspective on life and the universe changed. A lot

[@GholaMuadDib]

I absolutely love this theory. Truly horrifying. I’m still reading The Three Body Problem, and loving it. This was a great podcast. Looking forward to the next one.😊

[@sjjas7271]

Came form the podcast , brilliant content!

[@riverplate0101]

I remember the Stargate movie had that. Nuke them first, seal the door and hope they didn't survive. I thought that made perfect sense. Even as a kid.

[@Unit-3475]

Only for a kid.

[@Shoutatclouds]

The only way to stop the forest from being dark is to spread light.

[@MuantanamoMobile]

Yes! I am so hyped for this...great way to end the week. :)

[@johnhurley8918]

The theory makes a ton of sense IF the universe is infact finite and that the goal of society is to expand. If either of those axioms turns out to be false, the idea doesn't work as well

[@sweatywife]

Not to mention it's an inherently paranoid and fascistic outlook.

[@RubyMarkLindMilly]

Brilliant stuff 👍

[@willkadel4686]

Amazing episode! I only knew about Quinn's ideas Glad you posted it on your Channel. Did you ever thought about doing an episode/collab with Isaac Arthur? I think it would perfectly fit in to your format! Greetings from Germany

[@tyronewilliams7556]

This is my favorite trilogy of all time hands down. But the premise is very Earth-centric when I think about it. If resources in the universe are near infinite and on top of that, you can manipulate things to suit your desire:, such as harvesting water from the moon. The Dark Forest seems like a paranoid projection of human behavior

[@llpolluxll]

The resources in the universe are theorized to possibly be infinite but even if that is true, the resources of any given region is finite. I think we can find a way to co-exist with other space-faring civilizations but it is going to require completely transforming the way we do communication. Something along the lines of what happened in the movie Arrival.

[@JosephSuber31st]

The point is that you never know what the other race will eventually become. Even if they are nice and peaceful at the moment, they may not stay that way. And they rationally think the same of us.

[@tyronewilliams7556]

@@JosephSuber31st Well my thing is, one of the axioms the idea is based off of is technically true but not practically true. That resources are finite. Even in a limited region as llppolluxl pointed out, resources are near infinite. If you have the means of exploring your entire region, it stands to reason that you'd have more efficient ways of using said resources, Dyson swarms etc... Now if you have no reason to fight over resources, I don't think a civilization would worry as much about what that other race will do. At least not to the point of resorting to the Dark Forest state of things

[@JosephSuber31st]

@@tyronewilliams7556 not to be arguing, but you can't be sure a conflict won't develop later, and by then it is too late. Why not exploit your overwhelming advantage before that alien paperclip-maximizer AGI comes after you and yours?

[@llpolluxll]

Remembrance of Earth's Past was a lovecraftian tale that completely changed the way I look at the universe. I think it is wise to search for extraterrestrial intelligence but I don't think it is wise to broadcast ourselves to the universe.

[@user-kb7vc8lw4i]

I think it's a combination of answers. But I think the major one is that it took half the timespan of the universe's existence for earth-like planets to cool down from being molten rocks and thus becoming habitable. Although, I think the drake equation is probably off or missing information. Do we believe 10,000 of these intelligence species couldn't survive as just planetary non-,galactic civilizations? If they had nuclear fusion reactors I'm guessing they could power their planets for a few hundred million years without real need to expand outward.

[@all2031]

One's views about self and others' motives are formed by One's personal experience and the culture One is exposed to. Some are optimistic while others are pessimists. Scientists also have different perspectives. I believe all creatures are curious. Almost all kill in the wild for food. However, most are vegetarian.

[@edwardmartin5860]

Maybe 4 the mid-advance civilization's from around universe.But ones that are 100's of millions of years advance from the mid-advanced civilization's.We know through science that there is multidimensional plains of existence. That are in our space we don't even know about.But yeah scary but intriguing.

[@Unit-3475]

This Dark Forest theory is refuted very simply - all civilizations cannot initially adhere to such behavior, based only on assumptions. This means that some of them had to gain certain experience - either witness the destruction of another civilization, or survive an attempt at destruction, which is possible if the civilization mastered several star systems before striking. Using the example of Earth and Trisolaris, it is clear that not everyone who can send signals and communicate has the means to destroy each other. But even if we assume that everyone who has such means strives only to destroy each other. The theory of probability implies that as a result of attempts to make contact, young civilizations could stumble upon similar, peaceful races. As a result, alliances could be formed from several civilizations capable of repelling the killers holed up in the symbolic forest. (A similar scenario could well be realized on Earth - to avoid this Liu Cixin had to create an assumption called Swordholder) But even staying within Liu Cixin's concept (the concept, not the world) - the dark forest cannot be a single model for everyone thanks to several thoughtless details. Dismissing the very possibility that other races can think in other categories. It is described how a message with the coordinates of a star destroyed this star. Singer described the fact that most of the coordinates are false, and that it is dangerous to simply clear everything, but in reality and according to the same theory of probability, such powerful “spam” would simply force the “Killers” to change the rules of the game and would significantly slow down their progress, which in its turn a queue would make them vulnerable. It is clear that Liu Cixin himself is confused in his own concept. Another reason for the failure of the Dark Forest hypothesis is the Sophons. Sophons are used for direct observation and also provide real-time communication. In this case, the chain of suspicions underlying the concept of the Dark Forest, if not completely collapsed, then greatly bursts at the seams. Without revealing themselves, the creators of the Sophons can observe and guide other civilizations. And if such devices were able to be created by the Trisolarians, who were far from the most developed in space, then the more developed Supercivilizations could, with their help, supervise the development of young races, interfering only when necessary - the concept of the Dark Forest turned into the concept of the Gardeners. I remember the works of the Strugatsky Brothers, in which the staff of the Institute of Experimental History did just that. Of course, one can take Liu Cixin's concept as a warning from the author, but it is still necessary to take other concepts into account, and not deny others the ability to think differently. Stanislav Lem in the novel Fiasco introduces the concept of the “Window of Contact”, a period of development of civilization during which intelligent beings look for brothers in mind. According to calculations, this period reaches 1500-2000 years. Civilizations outside this “Window” either cannot yet send signals, or no longer strive for contacts in principle, and remain silent. That is, even if there are millions of civilizations in the galaxy, the time of their existence is so different, and the distance is so great that it is almost impossible to get into the “Window” of two neighboring civilizations. The concept of the Dark Forest can also be seen as an incorrect assumption made against the backdrop of extremely depressed mood in society and a failed experiment by another civilization that led to the destruction of a star. The "Shooter Hypothesis" is also mentioned, where the shooter shoots at a ball on which a race of intelligent ants lives. They see holes appearing on the surface at certain intervals, but are not aware of the presence of the Shooter. They accept his whim as a law of nature. Based on this hypothesis, it can be assumed that not all civilizations strive to destroy the less developed. And humanity with Trisolaris was simply unlucky to find itself in a sector where aggressive aliens seized power. In the third book, to justify the concept of the Dark Forest, Liu Cixin had to introduce Dimensional Collapse to explain why this policy became dominant. Thus, turning his universe into the film These Final Hours. And so, the Dark Forest, from a "universal law", became only a consequence of extremely specific circumstances. In an article dedicated to the Strugatsky Brothers' story "Roadside Picnic", Stanislav Lem devoted a lot of space to describing the mistakes of many science fiction writers and reflections on trends in science fiction. I want to end with one of his quotes: "The task of science fiction - to form hypotheses - has been replaced by projections (in the sense in which the word is used in psychology: the authors projected their fears and delusions onto the universe). Thus, they introduced a paranoid cosmos in which the meaning of life for everyone is the conquest of the Earth - a cosmos-trap for humanity, a cosmos whose evolution has come to the establishment of the principle “Civilization of civilization is a wolf” (as homo lupus homini).

[@Unit-3475]

Stanislav Lem - About the Strugatskys' "Roadside Picnic" (1984) ...The invasion of Wells's Martians is, of course, justified by the situation in which they find themselves - the inhabitants of a dying planet turning into a desert, and because of this prospect the fertile spaces of the earth must be conquered (Lebensraum). What was an exception for the solar system was nevertheless foolishly taken as the model for the entire science fiction genre. Indeed, Wells' followers mechanically imitated the master's failures. The science fiction that followed him constantly used the monstrous appearance of interstellar invaders, leaving aside Wells' explanation for this appearance. Further, later writers, who wanted at any cost to surpass the classic of the genre in describing the disgustingness of aliens, went beyond all limits of plausibility. Giving their aliens even greater power, they populated the entire universe with civilizations whose desire for conquest was completely irrational. The greater the power of the aliens, the more irrational their invasion of Earth looks. At this stage, science fiction became a fantasy of deception and paranoid delusion, as it claimed that all cosmic forces were aimed only at the destruction of humanity, as if the Earth and its treasures were of incalculable value not only to the inhabitants of a small desert planet like Mars, but to any civilizations of the Galaxy. Although the concept that a power that could build armadas of interstellar ships could be determined to take over our commons is as naive as the idea that one of Earth's superpowers would mobilize its armies to take over a grocery store. The cost of such an invasion will always be greater than the profit received. Thus, the intention of the invasion cannot be explained by the desire for material gain. Instead, aliens attack Earth simply because they feel like it; they destroy because they want to destroy; they enslave humanity because they are entertained by the exercise of tyranny. With this, science fiction replaced Wellsian interplanetary Darwinism with sadism, which became a cosmic constant of intercivilizational contacts. The task of science fiction - to form hypotheses - was replaced by projections (in the sense in which the word is used in psychology: the authors projected their fears and delusions onto the universe). Thus, they introduced a paranoid cosmos in which the meaning of life for everyone is the conquest of the Earth - a cosmos-trap for humanity, a cosmos whose evolution has come to the establishment of the principle “Civilization of civilization is a wolf” (as homo lupus homini). This space - a "cage for thieves" - later changed many times. His general unfriendliness was mechanically transformed into friendliness. The aliens attacked, but only to deprive us of free will and protect humanity, taking it under protection (this motive became especially popular during the Cold War); or they did not attack immediately, but hesitated and thereby forced humanity to unite: in the face of the stellar threat, solidarity triumphed. Further changes to the invasion scenario came from these; although none of the variations stood up to thoughtful consideration. They cannot answer certain elementary questions to which - albeit in their own way - Wells's novel constantly addresses itself. This is, for example, the question of the reasons for interstellar travel - something that cannot be explained by a phrase like "they like it" or by playing cops and criminals; this is a question about the orientation of cultures that have reached a high material level; it is a question of what form systems will take that have reached a high level of astrotechnical sophistication, and so on. But the most telling of all these questions is this: Why are real human cultures so rich and diverse, while all the fictional space cultures in science fiction are marked by an overwhelming uniformity bordering on monotony? Science fiction cannot answer such questions, since it has exchanged speculation about the fate of intelligence in space for sensational stereotypes of interplanetary adventure. Thus, the line of development of science fiction (the subject of this consideration) has become the antithesis of the line of development of science. While scientists, beginning to seriously discuss the problem of a possible encounter with another civilization in space, hypothesized that the mind takes various forms, and not all possible manifestations of intelligence necessarily take human form, science fiction was the opposite of such thinking, banishing the latest realistic concepts from its spheres and borrowing models from fairy tales. In her desire to give the aliens even greater power, she attributed them with almost Protean powers, such as turning - at will - into a tree, part of a rocket, or even into a person. They can also control the human body and take control of the human mind, giving new life to an old myth: possession by evil spirits. This fiction breaks down barriers between cultures by attributing a kind of telepathic omnipotence to aliens; or, on the other hand, shapes cosmic relations between planets according to primitive, simplified models of earthly origin (colonialism, conquistador conquests or imperialist coalitions). In doing so, it ignores all possible protests from sociology and physics - protests that depend on the circumstances of staggering space-time cosmic distances. This obstacle is eliminated by giving space travelers the ability to move at any speed they wish. In short, while Wells's achievement was the Martians, according to the science of his time, at home in real space, science fiction now prefers to place its heroes in a completely (that is, astronomically, physically, sociologically and, finally, psychologically) fictional space. Seeking inspiration, she practices ruthless exploitation and plunder, using history books and the Linnaean system to produce lizards and cuttlefish with arms, crabs, insects, etc., with intelligence. When even this became boring and boring, teratological extremism as a theme in science fiction was replaced by third-rate horror films, completely devoid of any thought-provoking content...

[@guaporeturns9472]

@@Unit-3475ummm

[@Unit-3475]

@@guaporeturns9472 Ummm what ?

[@guaporeturns9472]

@@Unit-3475 🤡

[@Unit-3475]

@@guaporeturns9472 And ?

[@inpusket]

The dark forrest theory doesn't make sense on the universe scale. If there are 2 civs that know about each other it's more likely an alliance to be made than war,because if there's 2 there might be a 3rd which could be stronger,and if that is the case,a predator civ is impossible because naturally an alliance of strong civs is more likely to wipe out any predatory civ as they emerge.

[@ShirleyTimple]

Read the books.

[@T.efpunkt]

But you can never be sure about the other civs intent.

[@juliankirby9880]

@@T.efpunktthat’s why you intermarry and cohabitate the same planets with aliens whenever possible. Except in stellaris. Where it generates lag.

[@T.efpunkt]

@@juliankirby9880 intermarry. With a lifeform that maybe isn't even carbon based and certainly doesn't do well in our atmosphere. You want to volunteer?

[@llpolluxll]

This is addressed in both the books and this video. The story of The Dark Forest is based on premises that may or may not be true and the books are just an extrapolation of those assumptions.

[@user-kl9sr4ry6s]

NAME OF MUSIC????

[@CosmicChroniclesPodcast]

It's this one: kzbin.info/www/bejne/aJbYpGWdiJ2iiNE

[@MuantanamoMobile]

Quinn, have you considered a deep dive into the cultures "Minds" and the role of AI, given the penitent topic these days? You could also invite on Prof. Jeff Hinton or any other AI luminaries to give their take on the podcast.

[@AurelSer]

Someone stolen this explanation of the book from a youtuber called Quinn's ideas

[@QuinnsIdeas]

This is my podcast.

[@sweatywife]

David Brin's Dark forest hypothesis*, and it's a borderline fascist/anti-life way of looking at the universe. Probably the worst aspect of the overall series.

[@guaporeturns9472]

“fascist/anti-life”😂😂😂

[@Unit-3475]

Totally agree.