1) Taliban do not have popular support. Neighbors will start supporting other ethnic groups militias (Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) They are all very sceptical of the Taleban. Only Pakistan will support Taleban. 2 Pakistan's importance to USA will diminish, as Pakistan do not have much to offer any more. 3) All the countries around AF will put pressure on Pakistan. 4) Pakistan will have to please China in one way or the other. Chinese are very calculative and will fast understand the costs are high for little return. 5) Last but not least, refugees and more extremism will create problems for Pakistan. As usual the Pakistani establishment (military) win a battle but gain nothing but more problems. The average Pakistani pays the price.