The Fed Has An Ugly Surprise For Markets | Mike McGlone

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Markets have likely priced in too many rate cuts, according to Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist of Bloomberg Intelligence. There is currently no "trigger" for the Fed to cut rates.
*This video was recorded on March 20, 2024
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*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 - Intro
2:13 - Fed meeting
5:46 - Monetary policy outlook
11:10 - Market recap
14:28 - Economic indicators
17:00 - Probability of recession
23:50 - Gold vs. stocks
26:25 - Bitcoin
29:51 - Tide that's rising all boats
#investing #economy #stocks

[@TheDavidLinReport]

How many rate cuts will the Fed realistically implement this year? Comment below and don't forget to "like" this video and subscribe! You’re being watched RIGHT NOW and the only way to stop it is by using a VPN. Avoid hacks and protect your privacy before it’s too late! NordVPN offers 65% Off on a 2-year plan +4 extra months! Try it for 30 days or GET YOUR CASH BACK! nordvpn.com/davidlin FOLLOW MIKE MCGLONE: Twitter (@mikemcglone11): twitter.com/mikemcglone11 LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/

[@vlrdmtr]

No one knows, but we shall see closer to election if the dems really want to win this election

[@prolific1518]

However many the Biden administration thinks it needs

[@bradleyqueen3879]

They won't cut. No reason too.

[@danmatsumura2636]

3 when they shouldn't with inflation still sticky

[@Truthseeker-iz3dj]

They saying it won't drop this year.

[@Stellaanderson-qx5nl]

I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is currently in a downturn and that we must wait for things to get better

[@CraigLloyd-fz6ns]

As hard as it may sound you can plan for the recession. If you are working, find extra work and get an Invest--advisor. Protect your deposits by having enough cash in short term fixed income. Then cut your expenses. Minimal insurance, cut utilities.

[@Suleferdinand]

I think the current market might give opportunities to maximize profit within a short term, but in order to execute such strategy , you must be a skilled practitioner

[@tatianastarcic]

It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.

[@SandraDave.]

Even if you have a humongous income you still need to draw up futuristic plans because anything can happen. One could lose one's job or whatever. Investment cannot be overemphasized. About your advisor, how does one reach pls

[@tatianastarcic]

My CFA ’Melissa Terri Swayne’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@Debbie.Burton]

There seems to be skepticism amongst investors regarding the Fed's plan. As for myself, I find myself at a crossroads uncertain whether to invest $150k into my stock portfolio. I'm seeking advice on the best strategy to capitalize on this current market.

[@benitabussell5053]

Stock investments can be a smart move, particularly if you have a solid trading strategy that can help you have successful days.

[@RickWatson-xu6gw]

Opting for an inves-tment advisr is currently the optimal approach for navigating the stock market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2022

[@RickWatson-xu6gw]

I work with *Natalie Marie Gentry* as my licenced advisor. Simply look up the name. You would find the information you needed to schedule an appointment.

[@DanielHarrison331]

These are fantastic takes, I was really hopeful of my investments this year, but all my plans have been disoriented, I've been studying the market crashes and I realized some investors made millions from the recent recession and I was wondering if such success rate could be achieved in this present market. and the Federal Reserve taking a more hawkish approach to interest rates. Any recommendations?

[@shungwang6066]

Cryptocurrency crashed the last couple years, so it should be starting a new run to a new high.

[@davidwallace2676]

I grew to a 7 figure well-diversified portfolio. I only buy quality firms, anticipate to hold them regardless of what happens, pay up but not too much, keep track, sell only when necessary, and be ready to course correct. also ignore the forecasts and market views which are at best entertaining but completely useless. ever grateful to Trisha Jean Webb my F.A... keep investing and you will be fine.

[@sarahkent898]

I'm hoping for the market crash. I did look up your FA and I'm impressed with the reviews, very remarkable and transparent with solid accreditation.

[@colewalker1837]

Trying to predict market crashes is gambling. They rarely happen. Corrections happen. Crashes are rare. The Fed won't be hawkish in an election year if they can help it.

[@scott7521]

I like this guy, straight shooter; not a bull or a bear just a realist and a very perceptive person.

[@davebrewer7170]

Are you OK Mr. Lin ? I saw a tarantula hiding inside that hairdo, you may not even be aware it is hiding there. LOL

[@linw8483]

STOP IT! & STOP NOW!😂😂😂❤

[@sawtoothbygeorge]

The real problem is no one is being held responsible for their own actions.

[@JonM-ts7os]

Why would the fed cut with no recession and a ripping stock market

[@michaelacton6246]

Maybe the fed sees something they aren't telling us.

[@Carlos-im3hn]

to reduce the inflationary effect of resulting deficits: $34T x 5% = $1.7T deficits. The FED is now caught in an Austrian debt doom loop. if the FED cuts they won't sell any new US Treasuries with such high debt and future inflation risk. ---> so stuck above 5% now. if the FED raises rates inflation will hyperinflate due to the excessively high debts ($34T on book). --> so stuck below 10% now (and can't crack inflation)

[@Mrtrancefreak50]

Once the appropriate numbers come out, it'll show we've been in recession since last October or November

[@michaelacton6246]

@@Mrtrancefreak50 probably won't happen till after the election

[@Chris-ey7zy]

Election

[@sglaser001]

We are in a bubble, but maybe we can go up another 50+%. Nonsense doesn’t have a strong upper limit. We were in a bubble in 1997….., then we went up even faster the next few years. It would be nice if markets ran off of fundaments and the money printer was not the primary factor in market direction.

[@johnnyairport2]

The fed will cut rates when David cuts his hair = Lin Leading Indicator

[@TheDavidLinReport]

So next week?

[@chrisbytwerk3712]

​@@TheDavidLinReport lol!!

[@citizen320]

Will that be available on tradingview?

[@far1762]

🙄🤥🙄🙂🙄😮

[@johnnyairport2]

@@TheDavidLinReportI hope you and Jay Powell both choose higher for longer.

[@hamidramini5139]

Thanks David. Mike is really smart and experienced. Please have him here more often.

[@Notaslave1961]

Great Hair David, totally blew your guest Mike away in the hair doo department! I bet Mike is secretly jealous. Keep looking good David!

[@threemonkeys5441]

Jerome Powell is a sellout

[@arnoldfarias5101]

Restaurant depot, the supplier for CA has chicken up 12% and steak 33% in the last two weeks. And minimum wage is going up to $20 next month.

[@sosohouse1749]

Fiscal policy David , the 1 trillion $every 100 days goes on the economy. It's the number one driver of the economy.

[@acornsucks2111]

Lower rates for what?

[@bradleyqueen3879]

Higher inflation. Lol

[@ellianaredick6817]

Great interview David. Big Fan of yours and Mike McGlone. Speaking the truth!

[@donragnar8430]

Hi David. I keep a spreadsheet of all the calls of your most popular guests like Mike McBald here and taking the opposite side has been profitable. This is the true value of following macro heads. Thank you!

[@scrambaba]

McBald? How old are you? 12? Grow up pal.

[@donragnar8430]

@@scrambaba grow some hair pal

[@prolific1518]

Congrats Biden is your daddy

[@guyroy4857]

Good afternoon David Thank you for your professional interviews. Your media brand is valuable.

[@red149]

Fed never actually executed QT ! just look at the liquidity chart

[@prolific1518]

Bingo. They've been providing liquidity for the upper class and only lower classes have been hurt by interest rate increases.

[@wiseguysmith6519]

The Fed needs to keep the market pumped up into the election... that's the ONLY reason they would even think about cutting rates right now!

[@TB-ki1ux]

Quality content and insights once again, thank you both

[@masonguritz6758]

Why do people assume that the US is a good guy?

[@maimunahibrahim5643]

Brainwashed

[@scott7521]

agree.... one of the bad guys for sure but we we certainly masquerade as the "good guy".

[@BubbaShaffer]

Prices do not go up on their own. In a true free market the prices naturally fall with new technology. I think David Lin is one of the best interviewers in this space.

[@RossiPopa]

First off, the belief that the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates was the driving force behind the entire economic chaos. What should we do now that we have a situation where interest rates are crashing? At this point, how would you suggest that I safely allocate $300k?

[@FusunTumsavas-cq7tp]

How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

[@FusunTumsavas-cq7tp]

I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.

[@smithbrady6173]

Great job guys . Thanks

[@fkrr5]

Mike McDoom :) Great interview

[@titchglover2601]

am I getting this right mike said you can not have gold without having bit coin in your portfolio? slowly learning about it btcb etf and bitcoin. Not ready yet, are they working in tandom? can you elaborate? great show ty and the crew.

[@StockGenius152]

Nothing is more bullish than a new ATH, never forget that!

[@iorewp]

Great interview David! Love hearing Mr. McGlone perspective!

[@clayrab]

"4 definitive bad guys" like it's some Marvel movie.

[@DreamWarden-nb2uq]

The bond market has been telling them to cut for a while but they are ignoring it. They need a hard landing to defeat inflation. The FED has never been able to control inflation through interest rates alone.

[@Carlos-im3hn]

old-school annual inflation = deficit / debt = $3.5T / $34T = ~10%. At 10% real inflation rate based on FED money printing (deficit is $1T/100days or $3.5T/year) the markets are sensing entering an old-fashioned Austrian crack-up boom or melt up. All the commodities are going up now. Don't think there will be any cuts because trillions of US Treasuries must be sold and bought in 2024. The rates are cornered between 5% and 10% now. We are at the limits. Yesterday's FED no-change was the trigger (to show we are cornered now). This is it.

[@kunghsu1]

Well, trillions of Treasury, if cannot sell, Fed will buy it. That is QT taper and turn into QE.

[@professionalaesthetics]

This guy is amazing. Subscribed!

[@kmilton1593]

Fed should add 1/8% onto interest rate.

[@raymondmaaskant1507]

Great interview as always David!

[@capitocapital]

The stock market is not one of the Feds' two mandates... So they can easily cut no matter how high the stock market is. But they would probably consider cutting quickly if the stock market crashes.

[@markperl5900]

Cracking interview David. 🤝🏻

[@sosohouse1749]

Without the deficit spending of trillions what would the US economy look like!

[@4hartrich]

Be severely negative!

[@prolific1518]

Depression.

[@mrpower33]

Powell said three cuts this year. That’s what we are getting. What is he smoking? No one wants the market to got down. Least of all Powell.

[@mechannel7046]

7:00 gold, btc, etc had a correction; stock mkt has not - biggest risk 8:30 no trigger for cutting now. No cutting till mkt goes down 13:00 mkt all time high, sucker's rally 16:40 fed's certainty of recession, predicted by Treasury spread 21:30 interest rates around the world indicate recession 23:20 10% correction in stock mkt 24:00 gold to overtake stocks by yr and 26:30 btc

[@YouTubeDon245]

Great show, I try to catch Mike anytime he gets invited on

[@ripster9713]

Mike should start a gofundme to buy a new mic

[@christopherhaskins7648]

Too funny😊

[@hafeld8348]

The stock market is not the FEDS main concern. Politics and the economy will dictate the FEDS moves. Powel says 3 so there will be 3 this year.

[@MuffinMan829]

3/4 of a point changes very little really.

[@prolific1518]

Political Reserve will do what's necessary to keep Biden in office. The stock market is 100% in their agenda. Powell specifically mentions the stock market often.

[@Jakethebeard]

Good for Mike owning he was wrong. It's hard to do, and I tip my hat to him.

[@justinwiedeman5017]

Mike is a very sharp analyst! Great interview.

[@PonziZombieKiller]

Hey Now ✌️. Mike is a smart dude.

[@lc285]

The guest today was articulate and informative.

[@flipvansaksen774]

All the specialists. They were wrong 5 years ago and they still are.

[@eh7599]

great guest

[@richardmarshall1707]

Nice one

[@yr6178]

Hi David, just a little suggestion, please give us a conclusion for each time you interviewing someone here. Thank you.

[@nixongill1063]

You need Mike on weekly

[@kenthughes4396]

This podcast has been a golden perfect contrary indicator

[@mariomader8850]

he needs to do more research on russia or china production investments thoughout brics nations and between them

[@Kobby405]

I'd reckon those bad guys think your side is the bad guys. Depends on which side you on Sir

[@PonziZombieKiller]

Ever since 2007 it has been the POVERTY EFFECT!

[@jeffsurfanderson]

If you want to say that when we look back and then they tell us that we were in a recession at this point in time then you'd have to assume because the yield curve is still inverted the next phase to happen would be a depression

[@terifong9816]

Great interviewer

[@kenthughes4396]

My fear is he has a guest who is optimistic

[@alisialopez4542]

When bitcoin 10k Mike? 😂

[@bdek68]

Stay tuned

[@Fearzero]

Gold is not going anywhere. BTC halving will prove Mike wrong again. Wall Street continues to underestimate bitcoin.

[@Resmith18SR]

Both David and the market are in dire need of a haircut. 😂😂😂

[@kenthughes4396]

I’m stunned David has a bearish guest. There is gambling going on at the Casa Blanca the same gang that missed the last 1350 points on the S and P 500. I’ll sell when he has a bullish guest

[@slowridefpv9668]

Wellll, they are planning to slow the balance sheet roll off and cut rates. Lol

[@donragnar8430]

😂😂 Mike McGoneeeee

[@raffyzoo2130]

powell needs to raise a half. not lower rates but higher rates. we wand deflation, not inflation

[@silviofontana5144]

I will keep this video and reflect as the months go by. So many experts giving their opinion, it will be indeed interesting who is on the mark and more particularly, their methodology.

[@bad8brains8]

I agree but if growth is still on upside they might actually pull it off

[@Going4BrokeOutdoors]

David, why do your intros always sound like they were recorded in a tin can? Sounds like you're using built in Mic instead of your broadcast mic. Show audio is great and great show as always!

[@efecan82]

Hey David, please interview "Uneducated Economist"

[@kenthughes4396]

How you going to get a 10% correction S andP when there are so many shorts in the mini S and p 500 futures. That’s rare

[@gussoldtimeradioshows4902]

The fed is printing so much money into my retirement accounts

[@leiferickson6047]

This guy gets it.

[@donragnar8430]

From Macro Alf to Mike McGlone - all of these bald analysts are more offside than their lost hairlines.

[@jeffsurfanderson]

Think the reason why the recession is slow to get here is because all the stimulus that was given out. That stuff has to play out so instead of the initial 18 to 24 months since the yield curve was inverted it's now 24 to 30 months

[@Mrallforthemoney]

I actually recently read a seeking alpha article that discussed the nominal yield curve vs the real yield curve. The nominal yield curve inverted in October of 2022 I believe, but the real yield curve didn’t invert until January 2024. Usually the two are in sync but occasionally (when inflation is high) they become detached. The real yield curve is the one to follow, not the nominal yield curve. So in that case we have 12-24 months from January until the recession hits. This lines up with the idea of a melt up/blow off top in the markets into next year before a crash. I’ve seen estimates as high as 7,000 for the S&P500 as it goes parabolic before the ensuing steep drop off.

[@FitzzBang_the_Swaffelaar]

i guess time goes too fast ,but thanks

[@joycekoch5746]

Get Mark Moss on.

[@zclarkeman]

Its annoying that they cant lower rates when people are struggling but print the money anyway.

[@woodbutcher494]

still sending money you do not have overseas. no cuts then it is going to have to raise the rate

[@gussoldtimeradioshows4902]

The market is preforming well and will continue to rise for years to come. Real estate is going up at least 40% over the next two years. Liquity is flowing through several channels. Most people have no clue how money gets into our economic system and the fed with the help of several other government entities are pumping more than a trillion dollars into the economy. This money shows up but it is delayed and revised. Everyone says we have only added 3 trillion to the debt last year. How they got this math I have no idea. We are adding one trillion to the us national debt every 3 months.

[@andrestrat]

David Lin, you are one of a kind. Your work is pristine and very helpful to so many of us. Thank you.

[@nationsnumber1chump]

the Apple suit is just another way for them to bring central bank digital currency and universal income. I don't see anybody complaining about the price of iPhone's. Maybe its just me

[@donragnar8430]

The recession already happened Mike McGone - it was your hairline.

[@jamesbowman1767]

We're on a crack up boom

[@joshmccombs2365]

They’re going to need steel toe boots soon to be kicking this can further.

[@ZenithBound]

GOLD BLOWS!

[@cmurill]

The FED is going to pull the rug in June July, no rate cuts 😂

[@wiseguysmith6519]

BS... powell wouldn't do that to biden

[@ripster9713]

Stocks market pullback in May, rate cut in June, stocks bottom in July. Think seasonaly😎

[@bali404]

Lyn Alden anytime soon? :)

[@user-bt9cm7ze4c]

I don't think they'll cut until unemployment spikes up. If they do cut otherwise I'd say it's all political.

[@christopherhaskins7648]

Mike is great. Loved the Everclear comment. 190 proof.

[@MrEKS-st6mc]

Maybe you should reevaluate who the bad guys are and making warfare their major and only industry.

[@brianw3663]

The answer is... the US is the only game in town and has the uncontested world reserve currency. Do you want to be investing in China? Do you want to be investing in EU? I hope not. Trade the market you are given and not narratives.

[@hardeez1]

This didn't age well even after one day

[@jeffsurfanderson]

How old is the speculative asset nobody's getting into it for its original purpose of being outside the system but now it's not outside the system it's been Financial with ETFs so therefore it is a trojan horse. I would put money on it that they're going to be doing a rug pull within the next 3 years

[@Mrallforthemoney]

Bitcoin and the Bitcoin blockchain are not the same thing. Bitcoin being collected into a pool and having a traditional finance institution be its custodian does not change the fact that the Bitcoin blockchain is decentralized and outside of the traditional system. How are “they” going to rug pull Bitcoin? Liquidate all of the Bitcoin held in ETFs somehow? Even then all that would do is temporarily depress the price of Bitcoin before people flocked back to it after seeing what the traditional institutions are willing to do when they have control of your assets.

[@gadopilo]

[@Coldwellbanker.drive3]

You should buy and hold tech stock Crypto investment

[@omqbrown9041]

Saving and investing wisely while prioritizing necessities and a few small luxuries in relation to one's total assets is a great approach. It helps ensure financial stability and I my for the enjoyment of life's little pleasures without compromising long-term financial goals. It's all about finding a balance that works for you!

[@maldifilbert1878]

Indeed, most people downplay the roles of financial planners until burnt by their mistakes. productivity is optimized and keeping up to date strategies and analysis makes it more lucrative. I've been able to navigate the volatilities and scaled up 19k from 5k with professional guidance

[@david.d.calvache5082]

Woah for real? I'm so excited. Jasper strowman strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started

[@mohmmedtolba]

Quite encouraging seeing Jasper Strowman being talked about here, I started off with 2000 Bucks...now with good returns.highly recommended..

[@Whitelily-wj5cu1qi1o]

Crypto Bull run is making waves everywhere and I have no idea on how it works; What is the best step to get started please?

[@EvaMildred-ke4yj]

Am facing the same challenges right now and I made a lots of mistakes trying to do it on my own with no good guidelines from from anyone.

[@EvaMildred-ke4yj]

Today am regretting it massively. I really need a fundamental information about crypto investment.

[@Vervynck-bg8ij]

Hahaha 🤣😅, you guys have captured my attention with lots of bad experiences you guys got from crypto. It's really pathetic and disappointing.

[@Vervynck-bg8ij]

I suggest Ms Maggie Anderson is extremely good on that. she is really good on what she does, now I can pay so many bills because of her help.

[@PreshWeirdo]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@lucanidae100]

Rate cuts? maybe 2 just before the election. The going rate is 1 billion per cut. Don't forget to vote this year ! LOL

[@drock430]

Mike McGloom always wrong. When are you getting a haircut Lin?

[@StockGenius152]

🚀🚀🚀

[@billwalton4571]

this market is making the haves and the have nots, im one of the haves, rode it all the way up, 21 mill profit taking today

[@herecomeththeboomerang4100]

You dont say things like this. Under the radar honcho, there is no shortage of people who wouldnt mind dying attempting to take what you have.