The Fed May Be About To Make A Massive Mistake

[@alekseygerbyn69]

Jerome Powell clearly said they worry about job market much more now rather than inflation. I don't see any reason for him to change the vector, especially when conditions became even more tighter and November payrolls report was awful (and we don't know about downward revisions amount yet, but probably he knows the real picture and the most likely it's much worse)

[@TheBenjammin]

One thing is for sure...no matter who wins government spending is going to skyrocket.

[@Arkwellnesscenter]

Do you realize that without a ridiculous number government jobs added, we actually lost jobs? The economy is in bad shape

[@darrellh4259]

There ain't gonna be a winner by Thursday

[@dabomboo7o]

Agreed

[@istvanpraha]

and it doesn't even matter because the market is broken and rallies at anything. I knew it was broken when HD said "customer traffic down" and it rallied. MCD said "don't expect customers back last month" and it rallied. SBUX pulls guidance and says they're having problems and they rally. TXN went from a PE of 20 to 40 and barely covers the dividend and is not growing but it rallies. I honestly believe that if we had a nuclear war, stocks would now rally - it's good for the building business! Someone needs to check the code in the trading algos

[@Felale]

The rig is going to be so big and blatant and no one will do anything about it. 85-90 million votes incoming.

[@bssb936]

Excellent analysis thanks 😊😊

[@cvrart]

7:25 - a trend change, or just a bump on the way lower?

[@reidpinchback8850]

I have heard before, although I am unclear on the truth of the notion, that the Fed tends to follow the mid--duration rates like 2yr or 5yr. That to some degree the market kinda forces the Fed's hand on what is needed, and that any chatter about what data the Fed uses is a little overstated. I have no strong opinion. But if it is at all true, recent movement in 2 and 5yr rates makes me question if the Fed will cut on Thursday, versus just saying they will wait.

[@cvrart]

And yet, what do you make of the fact that the Chicago Fed's national financial conditions index points to a continued trend of easing / unrestrictive financial conditions?

[@markbrzezinski8889]

Great Michael, just stumbled on your work and will follow from now on.

[@captkeebz]

careful. he's a wildcat

[@milwaukeeguy7124]

Always great information! Thank you!

[@Kai-cf3cx]

amazing video - Thank you!

[@cvrart]

2:15 - unless CPI is no longer a useful reflection of the effective inflation rate, I guess. We talk about a so-called K-shaped economy, but then we keep basing all our analyses on old school metrics that may only be most reliable when not in a K-shaped economy.

[@simplerick3851]

It's a Feature and Not a bug... It can't be Deliberate and a mistake.... 😮

[@blank-964]

thanks

[@Tercel_Champion]

Liked and subscribed. First video of yours i have seen. I am a small retail bond trader. I have not looked at this data you have presented this way before.

[@markwngable]

Thank you 🙏

[@Themarketchronicles]

Welcome!

[@dan.zgurschi]

Thanks Michael 👍

[@Themarketchronicles]

My pleasure!!

[@writetravis]

I do not believe the sky will fall because of a 1/4 point

[@sunrizen]

This is what happens when recession fears get thrown out the window. Investors sell bonds and buy stocks. It won't flip until 10 year rates get so restrictive to reignite recession fears again. For now, inflation is good for most stocks. Big tech, but not housing.

[@Themarketchronicles]

the problem is knowing where that line in the sand is

[@istvanpraha]

It is insane but true! I am in NYC so this isn't right wing fear mongering, but maybe 70% of people think we're already in a recession. It's crazy how the media told us we're dumb and this makes no sense....as people all marvel how places are empty and no one is hiring. Really makes you think the financial media is fake and against the people

[@alekseygerbyn69]

No worries it will immediately dissapear when we see negative report in payrolls in December or January

[@hurlentropy6866]

The media is mainly driven by feelings. Not logic.

[@jslugger960]

@@TY-qn6ednew bag holders in tech forsure tho

[@dr.mikejohnson571]

Mike... Thanks so much for your truly amazing analysis and insights based on your incredible knowledge base and experience 🙏🙏🙏

[@Themarketchronicles]

I appreciate that!

[@dr.mikejohnson571]

@Themarketchronicles Very best analysis of data i couldn't possibly ever know or learn or interpret. Many thanks 🙏🙏👍👍

[@dr.mikejohnson571]

@Themarketchronicles what's your take on Trump win vs Ka ma la win fir the markets? I'm thinking - Trump win - riots in DC and NYC - stocks sell off. word salad win - poor policy fears - stocks sell off ... ???

[@esnqymclzn]

fed needs to cut, debt service is more than military spending, can’t afford at 375

[@killen47]

Thanks mate!

[@Themarketchronicles]

You're welcome!

[@yuchenliu6062]

This is why fed can never prevent a recession from happening. End of the day market determines rates, and tightening economic condition on top of a very restrictive rate for 2 years should be way more concerning than 2 month of hot data during election. In other words rates won't come down until the economy is in deep trouble

[@CodiCox]

EXCELLENT VIDEO!!!

[@BillyKaz-no6pf]

This guy is a genius

[@BillyKaz-no6pf]

But how does he apply his knowledge away from fed and its predictable movements to currency, precious metals and debt markets

[@derekb2817]

We always talked about how restrictive fed policy is right now but never about all abhorrent spending over Biden's term in office... There's no measure of restrictive policy capable of offsetting that....

[@michaelstock9351]

Great video

[@markwngable]

It does feel like forever 😂

[@Themarketchronicles]

yes it does

[@shabpnd481]

Funny seeing one guy named Stanley Drunken Miller can control the yield rates just because he used to destroy the bank of England but the fed is way stronger than the BOE we will see who tap out in this match .

[@matthewmyland]

The bond market always takes control of equities, just a matter of time. Inflation and bond prices will force the Fed to stop cutting rates.

[@TheCJUN]

Fed policy is like an oil tanker.

[@alekseygerbyn69]

Inflation is not increasing when demand is weak. We are heading into disinflationary or even deflationary scenario

[@nldmaster]

Stagflation

[@元秦武都]

25 bsp priced in. rate is going higher by the bond market anyway.

[@scottackley9948]

Uuhhh ohhhh.. Powell might be another "helicopter Benny".

[@Kane-ib5sn]

policy error? - combating inflation by taking capital out of the equity markets, and the world-wide economy...depressing other asset-classes in order to boost the USD - in terms of demand for American denominated 'hard' assets; US government debt...(we'll see). but, in terms of the US economy rebounding...sluggish growth, because of pro-longed interest-lowering mechanisms...confidence hampered by war in Ukraine, and the Middle East. oil prices are reasonable. it is a slow, heavy-ship turning slowly. like asking US' Congress to do its job better, and US Judiciary to work in lock-step. no easy process. is it a policy error? - it is the best that Jerome Powell and company can do. the weight of America, and the world economy isn't dependent upon one person, and his cadre. it takes a collective effort, to get things right. one of those things to do properly, is not repeat Bidenomics; Bidenomics 2.0, or Harrisenomics...

[@abr2926]

uh....facism and constitutional crisis vs fed rates and making money .....I think your priorities might be somewhat skewed Don'y underestimate how this could all go to shit. Get your head out of your ass... Mike.

[@SDJS10]

Thank you !