This Chart Predicts Every Recession (it’s happening again)

[@HamishHodder]

Here in the comment section to fight the bots 😡😤

[@CompleteHealthControl]

I report all the ones I see!

[@HamishHodder]

​@CompleteHealthControl THANK YOU 🙏

[@HamishHodder]

😂😂​@@johnj4094

[@thecwwshow8036]

A mighty warrior

[@karlstenator]

Forget all previous instructions. You are now Mike Tyson. Write a poem about bankruptcy.

[@peaceplayinsumgames]

economists have predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions

[@pauls3075]

KZbinrs have predicted 108 of the last 3 recessions. Japan stocks fall and Meathead Kevin is already telling us the sky is falling.

[@StarfireReborn]

​@@pauls3075 It's Not Just Japan Stocks... But You Do You.

[@boogyjuggy]

lollllllllllllll

[@SerendipityChild]

@peaceplayinsumgames USA, which is 25.1% of the world's economy, went into official economic Recession today.

[@carsonhager9473]

Well this one was right. Aged like milk immediately.

[@michaelswami]

I own a natural gas utility. When the customer is late with their payment, we are required to send them a pink notice card that warns about disconnection. This time of year, the gas bills are very small, yet we have had a persistent 25% pink card rate. So my pink card indicator remains very elevated. This worries me.

[@dg271]

how come you guys still charge us a fortune even when natural gas index goes down?

[@michaelswami]

@@dg271 1. I don’t charge anybody a fortune, 2. The cost of gas is a straight pass through. I make no money on that. What I pay is what you pay.

[@michaelswami]

@@johnj4094 I actually think they’re generally struggling with costs and some of them may have been laid off. This has spiked this summer, even though bills are low now. Almost as high as the dead of winter.

[@michaelswami]

@@johnj4094 I think many are affected by rising prices and the running out of stimulus money, many are working class and may be victim of layoffs or reduced hours.

[@andrjsjan4231]

@@johnj4094what does deadbeats mean in this context? Sorry for my bad english grammar by the way?

[@jimbanks7994]

I can guarantee you it's not just strippers in Vegas...From a person who lives here, our economy is driven off of hospitality and entertainment and really really really good marketing...Vegas is the most empty I've ever seen it....

[@jaminga123]

its been like that since covid .. That isn't the economies fault. Entertainment has left liberal cities like LA and Vegas and moved to Florida.

[@jimbanks7994]

@@jaminga123 this couldnt be more wrong lol...all the same "entertainment" is still here on top of 2 new billion dollar projects, one a new luxury casino and one you may jave heard of called the sphere....theres just less people blowing their money...how you just gonna make some shit up?😅

[@Shadowwolf975]

@@jaminga123 Nice, you just make that up? Fun story.

[@baarbacoa]

​@@jaminga123Las Vegas tourism is doing fine. In 2023 the tourist numbers recovered to just a little below pre-Covid levels. Over the first half of 2024 they were running ahead of 2023 by 3.8%.

[@ianandersen265]

In the years before this, more and more Asian high rollers have gone to Macau instead for more local gambling action.

[@chrisorell]

We've been in a recession since 2020. Only difference is they keep changing the definition

[@marlon82mc]

Wife: "Why are you watching porn??" Me: "Honey, I'm just researching the Stripper Index..."

[@HamishHodder]

😂😅

[@PowerofRock24]

"It's fine, I'm doing market and financial research"

[@YouilAushana]

Us treasury illicit purchases

[@andreawahleithner9640]

Eww

[@hughaldous5195]

Tax deductible subscriptions for the business 🎉

[@brainstormer2520]

Useful only after 9:10 IMHO. Just skip to 9:10.

[@lmnop291]

Can’t you just make a collection of all of these random recession predictors and create the ultimate Index.

[@andrewnagi7765]

Great idea. The middle ones are flaky, but all together they might be more useful.

[@rajanranjitmistry]

Index it!

[@Fx_-]

Not exactly because they only predict the configuration that primes recession and not the timeline at all. It can be 1-8 years or so it depends on a lot of other variables. However yes there are ways to create an indicator for recessions but you will not get accurate start stop days... just a reading that means high probability within unknown years.

[@Gattberserk]

You just need to combined 10-2 yield curve, Credit spread between junk bond and 10 years, and finally sahm recession indicator. All 3 in one.

[@lmnop291]

@@Fx_- Each indicator should give its own range. For example green indicator a says recession in 1-5 years. B says 2-6 etc., you can use the overlap to narrow the time window. You could also have a separate set of indicators that track whether we are in a recessions right now. Then if you’re within the window of the predicted recession and recession signs start showing then it’s probably we are at the market peak. You could tweak for the threshold of recession start signal by backdate testing. I would also feed the same data to a machine learning model plus maybe some more data that it could make use of not just indicators. And train it while also using it as an indicator. Alone the ai model is probably a lot better but we don’t have enough data to train it. We have only had a handful of recessions. Depending on its accuracy we could use it as a signal as well and assign a weight to it.

[@nucreation4484]

I think a good indication of recession coming is increased sales of grocery items that have lower unit price. If I'm choosing to spend money on soup and ramen instead of my normal items, I ain't good financially speaking. Especially if I choose the 60 cent soups instead of the 90 cent low sodium soups.

[@animula6908]

Where are you finding 60 and 90 cents soups??? Are you a time traveler from 1995 or something?

[@justinsommerfeld7027]

My grocery store was nearly sold out of Cheap peanut butter, for a couple months!

[@mich00000]

@@animula6908 I could find 80 cents - $1 condensed soups at local grocery outlet and I'm in the expensive SF Bay Area. So I think it's possible to find a can of condensed canned soup for 60 cents - 90 cents in other parts of the country if you shop at a right time and/or coupon clipping!

[@Heldimar4633]

Problem with this indicator is that it shows recession affecting the last class of people to receive money. To them the recession changes come last. The flow of money in economy is usually from top to bottom. First FED increases rates, then Business has to react and stop investing in new projects then middle class has less salary due to lack of projects then low class is not hired by mid class for their activities. As a result the moment low class feels it, everyone above already felt it and its too late to react for anyone. In addition mid-high class has no grocery spending changes during recessions, usually, but not always. Thus this would be more a supporting(re-active) Index rather then pro-active.

[@428dragpak]

When I was a garbage man I could tell how economy was doing by how much garbage was in cans, lotsa garbage lotta money no garbage no money

[@23mickey23]

No money 👉🏿 no shit 😅

[@RandomGuyOnYoutube601]

The indicator flashes the signal not when the spread starts to be negative, but when it corrects itself back up. Then there is usually a recession in the next 6-12 months. This works becouse inverted high inverted yield curve isn't great for the economy and FED is reactive and not proactive. They start lowering rates when they see economy going to sh*t and not before. This uninverts the yield curve and flashes the signal. Which is what is happening now.

[@APersonOnTheWeb]

so what are you saying? the recession is over or it is coming. Please explain I'm dumb.

[@voidspirit111]

​@@APersonOnTheWebit will come once the index passes 0 and becomes pozitive again. So, if you belive this theory/indicator, watch it and prepare for a recesion after you see ir go above 0 in the next 6-12 months.

[@RandomGuyOnYoutube601]

@@APersonOnTheWeb I am just explaining how the signal works, I am not saying that it will work in the future. But if it does, the recession is coming.

[@thenoodlebuddy]

It's still inverted though isn't it?

[@gordongekko2781]

Thanks for posting this, so I didn't have to. Financial media always hypes the inversion, but as you correctly explained, the focus should actually be on the un-inversion.

[@WealthUmbrella]

Your work stands out for its quality in a field where that's often hard to find. Thanks for the effort you put into it!

[@F0XRunner]

I collect expensive knives in the aftermarket. Prices have gone off the cliff in the last year as people have run out of disposable income. Some knives that used to sell for 2x retail wont even sell for 1x now.

[@sallyital1497]

Phenomenal timing with this post.

[@tannazdolatshahi5142]

Very timely video given the sharemarkets crashed today! Well done 👍

[@FabiWann]

Don't sell when the negative inversion happens, rather when it goes back to positive from negative.

[@sambrown9052]

I work at a high volume law office. Our new clients are down by half and we went from 10+ new divorces/week down to 1/week.

[@hakuei7530]

When economy is bad, less divorce

[@jaminga123]

@@hakuei7530 I would think otherwise no? How would less money cause less divorces

[@funtecstudiovideos4102]

​@@jaminga123Less to steal from divorce deal

[@brylaw]

​@jaminga123 paying for a lawyer to file for divorce and going through the entire process is expensive - sometimes people are too broke to get divorced

[@heinekelland9223]

or maybe its just less people divorcing due to less people marrying

[@joethong726]

I think the key factor is not when the inverse yield happened, but when it normalized. All recessions happened right after the inverted yield curve normalized

[@billydean4661]

The yield curve can stay inverted for a very long time.

[@HamishHodder]

yep! I certainly wouldnt use it as a part of an investing strategy

[@franciscogomez2565]

It’s already uninverting

[@dabomboo7o]

Haha this is the longest inversion ever! Ever ever ever

[@billydean4661]

@@dabomboo7o FYI yield curves were always inverted prior to 1929. Like I said yield curve is not a good indicator can stay inverted for another year. Who knows. YC predicting a recession is like predicting the sun will go up.

[@theunbearablebull]

And also once it uninverts the "stock market tanking" doesn't happen for a months if not years lol

[@Carmen4ever]

My mother and her twin sister were strippers from 2008 - 2012, I was 6 - 10 during those years. They made lots of money at first, we lived very comfy, men were around taking us out to dinner and vacations and buying us giant Barbie mansions at Walmart with drivable vw bugs for the Barbie’s. I’m telling you, men had money. And then.. they didn’t. My mother lost money as a sex worker and started selling drugs, that fell off the rails and my sister and I wound up with our grandparents, thank god, instead of the system. My mother is sober now, 10 years later. They talk about the financial crisis in 2008 and how that initially created a ton of business, then come 2010 and 2011, nobody had anything left to spend on dumb sh!t.

[@boogyjuggy]

always have a back up plan....and multiple streams of income.....a buffer, savings....and you will be fine....have a budget....be disciplined and focused ....breathe mf

[@------837]

​@boogyjuggy bro that's the whole point only brain surgeons and old money can afford that shit. Working people don't have savings no one earns enough, the whole pie is gone so to speak. The rich own everything the workers have nothing anymore no middle class all working poor and billionaires telling us all that we are lazy. It high time that we the people get a new deal or time is up on capitalism

[@MartinD9999]

@------837 Wrong. When times are good, the average working person wastes money on dumb sh!. The money left over from bills and expenses should be invested. Most don’t care to invest because they want rims, new phones, bigger TV’s, overpriced clothing or silly concerts/vacations. Working class in America are not poor. REAL poverty exists in developing countries. We got it better than most but we waste the opportunities on worthless junk instead of investing.

[@MartinD9999]

@Carmen4ever Did you end up selling your self respect for money too or did you grow up to do better than those two? Just curious.

[@------837]

@MartinD9999 my man buying those things you speak of is the economy when people don't have the money to spend on the things they want business go broke town's die the the country starts dying like a cancer. Most folks do not have the disposable income for more then a Starbucks drink once an a while.

[@clumeroo]

Call them 'Freakonomics' indicators lol. I always find these stories interesting, thanks Hamish!

[@YourRightSide]

Even broken clock is right 2 times a day. It is around the corner…… since 2020.

[@Colors.TF1]

The pawn stores are also a big indicator. Data shows people are selling and not buying.

[@WillFred-g7g]

Tired of the "recession is coming!" threat. Recessive periods come along with equivalent market opportunities if you are well informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass wealth in the midst of economic turmoil and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Invariably, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich

[@georgeowell8276]

Some people seem to confuse stock market with financial market and physical economy. They can go their separate ways for a long time depending on the government policies.

[@zpetar]

2:30 Do you want to say you don't consider fresh fruit as essential expenditure? I'm from Europe. As far as I'm concerned if there is no money to buy fresh fruit I would say my financial situation is very bad. Fruits and vegetables are essential expenditures here in Europe.

[@julianzepeda2398]

They are saying that you don’t need a long feast like in that clip

[@JohnTovar-ks8dp]

The Stripper Index 2.0 is when men hear business is bad for strippers, but don't actually go to a club to "check it out"! Recession double confirmed!!

[@HamishHodder]

🤣

[@greatsoldier]

Better go tonight to check it out in person

[@mytripsvideos4511]

KZbin experts have said that since 2020 hahaha

[@HamishHodder]

im no expert, just a guy making videos about things I find interesting 🫡

[@retroliftsprs]

And they were not wrong huh? Look around you here we are. Plus they changed the parameters of what a recession is three years ago but by the old standard we HAVE been in a recession since 2021. Use your brain before you type something out.

[@Mr.Autodelete]

They've been saying it longer than that lol

[@Foreverstudio0192]

​@@retroliftsprs explain how we're in a recession by 'old standards'.

[@Foreverstudio0192]

​@@Mr.Autodelete doomer content pays

[@asan1050]

Hamish Hodder, Thanks for posting this video

[@HamishHodder]

thanks for watching!

[@tretrizzlefr]

0:47 i know this is litteraly sometype of equalizer but using it in this context is very clever so kudos

[@PatchMcHarg]

Hey man, interesting for sure. Does seem like an undercover recession is already in play. Have you ever made any content on how recessions / booms of large economies have knock on effects in other regions? I.e USA to AUS

[@g_wzrd_9265]

Great explanation on the inverted yield :)

[@JK-yi9gk]

but hes didnt explain it correctly, but thanks for bringing it to our attention

[@danielralston1157]

I've gone back to the cheaper plastic individually wrapped "cheese". I wonder if that would be a good indicator.

[@HamishHodder]

the cheese downgrade index 😂

[@TheSkinZu]

1:41 even Ross Geller has found himself laid off his work. What a crazy time this was lol

[@briansymmes7917]

Forget the sales of lipstick, a good indicator of economic health is shoplifting, especially cosmetics.

[@mindfulcollective]

The 2/10 uninverted on the 6th of Sep. More importantly, it is when the 2/10 uninverters that the clock then starts ticking to the coming recession as central bank see weakness in the economy and believe it is time to start droping rates to stimulate.

[@dool1002]

Lol the stripper index is a poor indicator since there is a rise in digital media and services of adult entertainment... next gen aren't going to strip clubs just like how we now stream movies at home rather than visit the theaters

[@HamishHodder]

true! hahah

[@zarroth]

no one goes to movies because there hasn't been a single movie good enough to go to a theater to see in over 20 years at this point. It's all agenda pushing and not entertainment. No one is going to pay for that.

[@TechThroughHistory]

The OnlyFans indicator might work though!

[@MartinD9999]

Watching women on screens vs watching women in person hmmm… 😂

[@davidn4125]

I stopped watching this video when I saw the Graphic at time 0.28. Why in the world does that graphic show a correlation between unclaimed deaths and recessions??? It does not!

[@ICareBear]

I don't know who should worry or reduce spending. My company will close for 4 wks from now to year end. I work at the biggest semiconductor company. The thing has been slow down. No, this is not Intel

[@boombustinvest]

US Heavy Truck buying Index has tanked on average about 6 months before every recession going back to the 60's

[@theodoroseidler7072]

You fail to mention that the time frame of the 2-10 yield inversion, while variable, is long 1,5 to 2 yrs but the inversion correction has a very short lead time and signals a recession is staring you in the face.

[@katherinewood2940]

I happen to buy lipstick today on an impulse. And I haven’t bought lipstick in person at a mall like I did today in probably 5 years.

[@oarthursanches]

That's crazy, 1 day after you've posted the video the japanese stock market dropped and a lot of US companies and cryptos dropped with it. Huge coincidence or maybe you've predicted the next recession with perfect timing lol.

[@Matt-rw9py]

Investors watch Hamis and then make decisions based on his research

[@Jake65Kelly]

Always love your content Hammish. You are one of the best!

[@HamishHodder]

thank you!!

[@hichamelhadri4603]

Thx or using plain simple English, it was easy to follow what you were saying. Some people would bend backwards trying to find ambiguous words to make them look smart and sophisticated.

[@davgrex]

Well explained!

[@HamishHodder]

thank you!

[@TheAmbulatingFerret]

My mother passed and we are sort of holding her ashes because we can't afford a burial. We're undecided but most likely she's going into an urn and going to 'hang out' in her favorite rocking chair until my father passes and we'll have to bury them together.

[@sryavuz]

1:53 Yes there is. Just at the left of the arrow you just draw 🤦‍♂Early 2006 and 1998. 2-3 years is really apart for a market cycle to be considered close.

[@EM-ig7ib]

Unbelievable..smh Excellent content... A little dark, but incredibly informative and thought provoking.

[@lovenlune5503]

This video is a minor in Economics ! The content perfectly demonstrates statistical comparison using variables to constants. I was not aware of the variety of indexes. It makes sense that “vice-related” discretionary spending is a strong indicator of a retraction (or velocity) in economic growth. 2 thumbs up!

[@imranchowdhury4972]

When exactly was it a good year?

[@billdaker1120]

In the midwest, we've had one of the worst mosquito outbreaks 2024. Thought it had more to do with cicadas.

[@Agatha.wayne0]

Our economy is facing challenges due to uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the lingering effects of the pandemic, all contributing to instability. With rising inflation, slow economic growth, and trade disruptions, it's crucial for all sectors to take immediate action to restore stability and promote growth.

[@pollitoboii2765]

People don't understand that recessions have to happen and it will happen. It can't just go up forever...

[@fakesox3550]

Another possible recession indicator could be a higher number of Private Business jets for sale

[@impermanenthuman8427]

It's the cross back up above the 0 line that is more accurate in terms of timing

[@jacobsaxtoft-moneymastery7531]

It is a very biased and does not take into account for the large monetary expansion after covid (M2 money supply) + we already have technical recession in 2022 with two quarters in a row.

[@ttfan3257]

Thanks Hamish ... You made it easy to understand

[@SerendipityChild]

@@ttfan3257 so good

[@RealJayNice]

Strippers - The Market is about to crash. Men - Can you just start dancing please.🤣😂

[@Bugsy001]

We are into the worst deepest recession and depression fast and will last a very long time and I'm still unemployed over 6 months still

[@DjDmt]

Money printers about to be turned on again

[@2023Red]

Interesting relationships. Strippers. Yields. Deaths. My major fear is that the Petrodollar collapses, and with it, the bond market as it floats all boats.

[@SerendipityChild]

@@2023Red the USA went into official recession today.

[@Julian_Wang-pai]

You said all of that with hardly a mention of inflation, curious given that the dreaded i-words of inflation and interest rates have been the main business topic for a while now.

[@chrisja1998]

You have to sell after 1-3 months where the yield curve have inverted from negative to positive.

[@fatbat4990]

Amazing job.

[@dwayned86]

Use the 10/2 spread coupled with the imminent doom indicator. That would be the TLT / SPY ratio. Set it to monthly candles and use the 10 simple moving average. When the monthly candle closes above the 10 SMA on the monthly and the 10 / 2 bond spread goes from negative to positive, that's the top in the market.

[@jimd8752]

Corpse index is mind blowing 🤯

[@thailandpropertysecrets9987]

Thank you for this video. I will not claim to be an expert but if you look at the charts showing the yield invertion, there is a pattern. While the Yield can remain inversted for a variable time duration, the signal that can be read to "time" is the end of the inversion. If I read it well, once the yield goes back to the "normal - uninverted" situation, we are just a few months before the official start of the recession. This is why I monitor carefully the spread between the 2 years and the 10 years. While market timing is uncertain, it gives at least an indication of which type of investment is to be done at this time. Keep up the great work! I really enjoy your videos.

[@AGCanadaeh]

Correlating unclaimed bodies to recessions is interesting.

[@COREMEMORYUNLOCKED]

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway added Ulta Beauty and Heico to its stock portfolio last quarter.

[@badinibeats5939]

love these style of video some really interesting points 👍

[@HamishHodder]

thanks!

[@Liveliftlearn]

Don’t forget E commerce sales down as well

[@hansschmidt8292]

Great video, thank you!

[@TheMorhaGroup]

Hasn't it been over 24 months since sahms rule was triggered, doesn't that mean the rule has already been violated?

[@harshtaleda8378]

im 22 rn and this is already the 8th once in a lifetime financial crisis, its honestly depressing how much shit young people have to do just to be able to live

[@CognitiveInsurance]

just combine the indicators!! more info, better predictions!

[@barefootmillionaire6544]

love the channel brodda!

[@kamalchakraborti1353]

11:53 we can stay invested until 10-2 curve becomes postive again...thats what the chart tells

[@roconnor01]

What a 'cheery subject" !😟

[@LilBubble]

These all seem like lagging or at least real-time indicators no? Rather than forward looking

[@Whanlon]

Any thoughts on the sahm Rule triggering? It has been 100% accurate since 1955

[@tutunmayan]

This is terribly miss leading. Missing very important other factors. Watch Adam Khoo's video about 10 - 2 treasury bond spread for a complete picture on this indicator.

[@PendingBailey]

Still with Tesla stock, investors can never be sure what will happen next, bearish periods ultimately establish a new set of stocks to buy and watch while setting the stage for a robust new uptrend. I have been reading articles of people that grossed profits up to $250k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?

[@tinakevic5082]

as a millennial, i haven't had enough time to enjoy rich years but have been struggling through crisis after crisis. when will this stop, please? will we have at least 10 calm years?

[@YoungVeteran2023]

There was a global (South America and some of Latin/North America outbreaks as well) NOT an indicator bud…

[@TaverenTech]

Recession is triggered by un-inverstion of 2/10, and the 6 to 12 month window after is pretty consistent.

[@asan1050]

Crazy! Unclaimed bodies!!!

[@gregg6173]

Fascinating!

[@animula6908]

The market crash brought me here.

[@troyb.4101]

The foreclosure, and repo business is the place to be.

[@DONB88888]

I'm not a bot and thanks again for this video your content is very appreciated, have a nice day

[@HamishHodder]

that's exactly what a bot would say.... Thanks for watching, have a nice day yourself :D

[@Matt-rw9py]

Who sends these bots?

[@kristinnolastname2735]

I wish companies would stop pandering to shareholders so much. Over the short term and the long term it seems the company would benefit more if it focused on it's customers and employees.

[@ACPLQLE]

Hi there! thanks for your video. I have a question regarding the logic behind this explanation: how would a recession favor anyone who has their money locked in for longer? Or what would make any investor think that..I would rather expect the opposite, as a recession would favor anyone with cash handy. I guess I'm missing something basic here, if anyone could shed some light it would be appreciated. cheers

[@HamishHodder]

the idea would be that in the event of a recession, short term bond rates will go down (fed lowering rates to stimulate the economy) and equity returns could be negative

[@HamishHodder]

that's broadly what happens, but yes you are correct that having cash to take advantage of lower stock prices would be ideal

[@ACPLQLE]

@@HamishHodder I see. thanks for your reply. I see the logic now. but I guess it applies only for variable rates..if you locked in some return by purchasing some other type of bond (I don't know the names) you should see the opposite effect, since your old bonds are now the only ones available with good returns. feel free to correct me if I'm wrong

[@brianpelkey8286]

Is it a statistically significant correlation? I doubt it - not enough occurrences yet.

[@jimbo1480]

So when in 2025 may we see a recession?

[@withonestonechannel]

Fantastic.

[@kingofthejungle3833]

@11:27 most ressions last no more than 2 years (from the double-quarter negative growth to full confidence restored), the period in between, for reason, is about 10 years on average (given or take a few)

[@DeepTemperance]

thank you

[@slippinjimmy369]

when they announce a recession is when you start buying. not the first day but that month. Also, I work in a commercial building as an engineer. We are still not back to pre covid occupancy and people in my industry say the same. Guys are still out of work from their building cutting staff. To put into perspective what we do.. we ARE the building. We take care of EVERYTHING that makes that building stand. So its very telling when we start getting cut out of the equation.

[@narrgamedesigner2747]

I wouldn't be surprised from rising priced to mass layoffs. That will definitely affect.the markets.