The Federal Government Pulls a U-Turn on Immigration | The Loonie Hour Episode 151

[@saretsky]

The Loonie Hour's coming to Ottawa on September 14! Get your tickets here! www.eventbrite.com/e/loonie-hour-in-ottawa-tickets-1004656072357?aff=oddtdtcreator Also, make sure to check out and subscribe to Rich's KZbin Channel for your weekly IceCap Canadian Market Wrap! www.youtube.com/@IceCapAssetManagement?sub_confirmation=1

[@dirtlump]

The simple fact is..... there is NO other explanation for the degree of failure around immigration policy in Canada.... than absolute and utter "incompetence" of unprecedented proportion. The fact that a sitting Government... with all the resources, money, staff and data at their fingertips..... could have BOTCHED a policy so badly..... can leave no other conclusion than INCOMPETENCE !

[@donm2067]

Or, or... They knew what they were doing and it was straight up malice.

[@MyYoutube-yb7xc]

@dirtlump And everyone should share their part of the blunder. Why did the provincial government not have any rules around how many students could be admitted by the private colleges ? How come the municipal governments did not have a handle on 10 plus students sharing a basement. Finally, after the federal government started to take action, the Ford government made quotas and rules to manage international student numbers, and Brampton passed an occupancy bylaw. The federal government tried to push for more construction of housing, and provinces cried jurisdiction, and the federal government ended up going straight to municipalities, which got the funding and raised the development charges. It's the provinces + municipalities and their complex web of bylaws that hinder and slow down construction. Also It's worth mentioning that the formula for counting population growth/ immigration levels never before included the temporary workers or international students.

[@dirtlump]

@@MyKZbin-yb7xc Population/immigration levels in my view.... should be very clearly tied to availability/capacity of supporting publicly funded institutions like Healthcare/availability of Doctors, Schools, Employment and all other infrastructure. To suggest otherwise is akin to 'pushing on a string' that does not work and results in the societal deficits we are experiencing today.

[@fredbender2587]

It's NOT incompetence,, it's deliberate. Read the World Economic Forums goals and vision for 2030. Trudeau is one of their "young global leader". Klaus Shwabe.

[@MyYoutube-yb7xc]

@dirtlump Absolutely 💯, and the healthcare, number of doctors, schools, and all such things are under the provincial government. Did they not know what Canada's immigration targets are or how many people are coming to their cities and province? Of course, they did. They should have planned ahead to expand the infrastructure. Where is their 100, 50, or even a 30 years plan? Even a small condominium corporation needs to have a 30-year plan. The province and municipalities are equally responsible for it, if not more. All you have to do is look at the subway during rush hours, and you would know that you should have planned for more.

[@andrewvader1955]

Vassy Kapelos has been ripping the party for months. she's on Canadians side and holy cow she's doing a great job.

[@bradcomis1066]

These presale condo buyers are literally buying futures contracts ON MARGIN. People think that this is some great setup, but the risk is HUGE.

[@rdefacendis]

Yes - that is because the investors BORROW the deposit money. I chuckle every time a realtor talks about investors "putting down" 25% or having a loan to value of 80%. Its all nonsense. All of these investors borrowed their deposit monies and falsely declared to on a mortgage application that the deposit, is cash on hand. The investors that are closing now are deep... deep.... under water... they 100% financed an asset that fell in value by 20%. They never had any skin in the game anyway!

[@jackhsiehhautecouture]

It’s so scary. 😱

[@Matt.k864]

We are in a recession

[@Observer168]

The interest rates did their job, now time for more rate cuts

[@b-rare]

100% but look at gdp 2.3% increase or something like that lol wtf is going on it’s a clown world

[@b-rare]

Watch inflation go like fire again with these rate cuts and throbbing economy . I can’t believe it’s positive 2% like wtf

[@b-rare]

@@Observer168 inflation going to go crazy agin.

[@Observer168]

@@b-rare depends on how much and how fast they cut

[@dwightcarlson7136]

Immigration isn’t something that can be’walked back’ unless you deport millions of people. Literally say that they can get the horse back into the barn after it has escaped.

[@handaferguson]

Great Job!!! Thank You... :-)

[@danielgale607]

rich, i'm so pumped for you !!! you rock!

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

We are too!

[@grantwalker660]

Two Guest suggestions: Lynn Alden/Gregory Mannarino. Both would prep for a Canadian take and give a global Macro perspective.

[@tombrodzinski157]

Here in Alberta I just treated myself to a V8 620hp family wagon. EV mandate will not happen, it is just noise. I plan to drive ICE vehicles till I die. (I am 54 )

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Tom!

[@Observer168]

Yes, but most people in the 20’s, 30’s and 40’s don’t mind owning a Tesla if it was affordable to them. Tons of tax rebates and incentives

[@Rawdiswar]

What vehicle?

[@juliecoo.k]

@@Observer168 its true but a HUGE problem is that a lot of people in that age group live in condo or apartment buildings with no car chargers and the cost to retrofit a building for that many chargers is simply not feasible

[@Observer168]

@@juliecoo.k they already have wireless charging roads in Norway. This is the future and technology evolves. Wireless charging in densely populated areas would be game changing like Wifi. This is why Canada is like a dinosaur. No innovation, just excuses.

[@edubmf]

> there's a lot of "I don't like" conversations Canadians have been infantalized by ever rising asset prices they don't understand markets can go *down*

[@lordalmightyjr]

Awesome news on the Ice cap pod. Would love to hear more from rich on Canadian economics

[@olivahela]

Love the show !Good work. Re: US GDP revisions.. Its election year!

[@Sparta1984]

I dont even think the EV tariffs should be the main story from that policy. The steel and aluminum tariffs will immediately be felt in the economy. I work in estimating and domestic steel is not competitive. Whether you agree with the tariffs or not.....construction costs and anything with steel/Al just went up a lot.

[@evadeanu1]

1 in 4 Canadians work for the government. What’s your take on this?

[@Observer168]

Who wouldn’t want a nice government job where you can’t get fired? Most Canadians choose to stay in the comfort zone

[@tylerjodeblock1224]

There's more than you realize because they also give grants to corporations to be here. Those salaries are fueled by tax payers

[@wesleylawrence6439]

Liberals always grow the public sector. Their at the end if their run. The Conservatives will shrink the public sector significantly as the do.

[@michael2275]

31:58 Thing is that he already lost the $200k.People are delusional

[@MyYoutube-yb7xc]

@michael2275 A branch that stays attached to the tree during the fall and winter becomes green again in spring and can hopefully bear fruit. The one that breaks off has no hope. Many start ups make no money in the first few years, that does not mean you shut the door after year 1 or 2.

[@michael2275]

@@MyKZbin-yb7xc You're destined to be a mediocre investor. That is a counter productive way of thinking. Enjoy bag holding

[@MyYoutube-yb7xc]

@@michael2275 Yes, a bag full of money 💰 😀 over the long run.

[@DJRS2178]

The big leverage squeeze aka mortgage... forced sellers coming.

[@kevinn1158]

Immigration levels have been way too high for quite awhile. Using immigration to prop up GDP is a brain dead approach developing an economy and a stable society. At 13 times wages, home prices are completely out of control because of immigration levels, decades of easy mortgage rules and a huge influx of investors hoarding properties. It’s time to ditch the land transfer taxes, massively lower development fees and charge commercial taxes on investors buying residential properties to operate a business.

[@harveythompson6951]

Its time to ditch the idiot liberal government

[@huskavarnapunkband]

Steve's out because real estate is no longer an investment

[@ccgear4367]

10:45 Give them credit for calling Canadians racists for a decade? NO.

[@roseoverdose6451]

thanks for the show guys. have a great long weekend!!!!!!!!

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Thanks, man.

[@geraldbrowne]

Is it bad to say “you are doing gods work “? True MACRO Economic RATIONALITY. With humility and kindness to real regular people. Well done. Truth to power.👍👍👍

[@oliverb3801]

Steve - this missing piece is land values. It's totally irrelevant what price XYZ company paid for the land at some point in the past, it's a sunk cost. If the land is worth a lot less today and they don't want to develop it there is a huge opportunity cost to sitting on their hands. Of course it'll take time for the psychology to change though.

[@tombrodzinski157]

String the three (Steve’s, Loonie Hour and the new icecap one) podcasts together and basically replace BNN. You will become too fragmented with too much overlap and dilute quality otherwise. Steve is the OJ, let’s not forget that.

[@donm2067]

Ice cap will never admit the truth, so may as well be BNN

[@Rawdiswar]

​@@donm2067What's the truth?

[@donm2067]

@@Rawdiswar The USD is a dead man walking and nobody really wants to use it, and that society is changing and not for the better. Keith loves king dollar and thinks it's all going to work out.

[@donm2067]

@@Rawdiswar I posted the truth, but it was removed

[@JessicaFournier-j9h]

As a landlord that had to renew. My mortgage went up, the heat pump rentals that the government went up twice in 16 months, the oil cost went through the roof. Yet everyone complains that landlords are making it rich! Very soon I will pay people to live in my units.

[@bradcomis1066]

You should probably sell.

[@alexguolo5872]

nobody gives a shit about your failed investment tbh

[@alexguolo5872]

you sound like the typical loser crying about his stock portfolio down. Its nobodies fault except your own

[@alexguolo5872]

you could have picked safe places to put your money but choose a high risk asset. Nobody forced you into buying high risk

[@dirtlump]

Costs of doing business I am sure you conducted due diligence in regards to prior to utilizing Financing/Debt to "invest" in revenue income property as part of your Business Plan ? NO 'business' is a guaranteed return.... get over it !

[@Mike-xn8yt]

A topic I've wondered about, how will @IceCapGlobal address a multi polar world? How will investors benefit from this split? Welcome aboard Rich. Maybe an investor newsletter would help. Peace.

[@MyYoutube-yb7xc]

I understand that they changed the formula for calculating the population growth. The temporary workers were historically not counted in the population growth. The new numbers include the temp workers. Are we comparing apples to apples when comparing 9 years of 90s to the last 3.5 years ? The house building is significantly impacted by the municipal government bylaws and fees. The students and universities were supposed to be managed by the provincial governments, and so were the rental and property standards.

[@SensibleNonsense1982]

Keith you say why should the Fed cut? Shouldn’t they be slowly working down towards a more neutral rate? (5.33% over night Fed rate, minus core PCE 2.6% = 2.73%). To hold would be excessively tight and risk their job market. A lot of US retailers on the lower income side have recently reported declining sales. Tell me I’m wrong.

[@fwra1234]

43:24 I laughed at that Keith, I got you

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

It's true!

[@Observer168]

They over did it with the rate hikes and now it’s time for more rate cuts. The FED is cutting in September too! Vancouver and Toronto will always be expensive. Real estate prices have skyrocketed in almost every major city in the world. Real estate skyrocketed the most in Vancouver because of rich immigrants. We won’t be seeing rapid price growth anytime soon unless the government opens the investment immigration program again.

[@edubmf]

Why do you think they are cutting? Fed set the lower bound.

[@bradcomis1066]

Prices shot up everywhere because the government(s) printed billions of dollars and that has all worked it's way up to the rich who went ahead and added a huge amount of demand to the housing market.

[@24525]

Ok enough yapping How do we get rid of the ones that are here now ?

[@michael2275]

Keep the tariffs on Chinese EVs and drop the EV mandate here in Canada.

[@obesia1873]

This show is like the most Gen X thing I've witnessed

[@itown4ever]

Enough with the foreign workers already. They'll leave on their own accord as the downturn starts to really set it.

[@frapeyou]

Bruh

[@HOMESBYPETER]

What happened to all the old shows when you said immigration was the reason house prices were going up

[@tvh6095]

WE NEED MORE CO2, NOT LESS!!! PEOPLE CANNOT CONTROL THE WEATHER WITH TAXES!!!🤦🤡🌎

[@geraldbrowne]

Guys please try to tie the two podcasts together to give us a full Canadian finance + real estate deep dive without the BNN bullshit pump and dump

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Absolutely. That's our goal.

[@kazed34]

If you have a rental , can you claim back interest fees from the government?

[@mikebroughton8644]

ha ha.

[@MyYoutube-yb7xc]

You can claim only the interest portion of your mortgage as an expense from your rental income and you oay the tax on the rest.

[@TooBadToBeAway1]

Great show. But could someone please mention the impact of coal-based power plants in China on climate change? And India? What is the environmental point of buying Chinese-based EVs when the electricity these plants use is produced by one of the greatest sources of green house gases in the world? Keep the tarriffs, and not only for business reasons.

[@rdefacendis]

Presenters glossed over an important stat: 8% of our entire economy is related to construction (which is overwhelmingly residential). Housing pre-sales have fallen off a cliff. You actual called it a "bubble bursting". That language is heresy in realtor circles!!!!!!! Those housing pre-sale numbers are a leading indicator for residential construction labour. If one is a bubble burst - then logically, the downstream is also a bubble burst. The coming implosion in the construction labour market and all its downstream impacts, may actually be our second, deeper leg down the recession pit, that may appear a year from now, or two.

[@Casey-qm1nd]

Good point

[@donm2067]

The good news is, about 60% of the people in construction shouldn't be there and don't want to be there. Flush the toilet.

[@KingUnKaged]

Can someone explain why the investor is in the wrong @41:00? Why would you realise a $200k loss now, rather than eat a $1k loss per month? It would take you 17 years for the monthly losses to add up to the up front, and in that time rents would likely have risen and the market would likely have recovered.

[@JustShaneB]

Because the $200,000 loss today may just be the start. It took Japan nearly 30 yrs to recover after their down turn.

[@morimoko]

Can you post the ice cap management page in the video notes? can't find on google.

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Hi Morimoko. kzbin.info/www/bejne/rJ62l6FtoZitp7M

[@Ricardo-gs2ce]

Real estate is going to sky rocket soon 🎉

[@jbay088]

Keith, just wondering, does the over- or under-performing banks' loan-loss provisioning figures have any correlation with the timing of the compensation packages for the executives of those banks? I can imagine it would be quite convenient if your $1M stock comp were issued at a low strike price, right after your bank has set aside a lot for loan losses, and then once they've vested, your loan loss provisions happen to be low, resulting in a profits beat... Just a curious thought.

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Hi jbay. I understand your perspective - yet, I doubt this is a significant factor.

[@rosamatos8294]

He cagalhao BYD is not state own.

[@johnnyboyvan]

One podcast is enough for me, thanks.

[@frapeyou]

Lol

[@DavidCymballa]

Dont watch the other one

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

Booooo!

[@jasonpepper658]

Its clear that there is a policy vector...it has been in overdrive since I can remember...before I even paid attention..During financial reperssion can the government not respond to the illiquidity of the Bay St/GTA RE conundrum with what they want...I have to assume the models show what has occured and IRR will increase with the new labour, liquidity and cost of borrowing. Is it not the case that financial repression is a political economy and we are so close to an election that the government will be listening? It just appears yet another 3 card shuffle is shaping up. I also wonder if the BOC is timing things along with the US interest payment conundrum and their election cycle; as close as they can. Coincidentally, OPEC is being stimulative with the relaxing of their quota. Do we believe in coincidence? Is this the start of another leg up in a commodities supercycle?

[@CorporateShill66]

Realtors are panicking

[@Casey-qm1nd]

At 44:00 min Kieth, are you talking about stealth QE? I am curious now

[@jcabral6231]

WOW Steve Saretsky kicked to curb

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

lol.... that didn't happen.

[@kevinheise7]

Wonder what the tone is like off camera

[@bradp2117]

so new EV's will come from Mexico Auto plants built by China? Or will we bann products from our trade partner to the south too?

[@stevecatpatrick8056]

TFW's are still suppressing the wages of high skill workers in Canada though, And that doesn't seem so set to change. If you look at the data for the last decade high skill workers holding University bachelor's and graduate degrees have had their wages grow slower than any other cohort, So maybe that group needs more favorable labor market conditions even more so than low skill jobs. Also don't love that the governments rank hypocrisy in tariffing cheap EVs to support jobs in Ontario while still increasing costs of our industry in Alberta. I'm not a conservative and I hate the Useless C*nts Party here but there is undoubtedly a history as old is the country of favoring central Canada over the west And the government shows it's still continues strong today.

[@davidkania3720]

Keiths been on epstiens island lol

[@mahanrazagh]

So Keeith is officially Rich's boss?!!

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

officially... unofficially is different story.

[@MyYoutube-yb7xc]

@@mahanrazagh L.O.L

[@petermcnichol4]

44:08 Why not share the idea??

[@codethemonkey]

One big thing you missed with the China EV story is that Chinese government subsidizes their car industry heavily (hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars). You can't critique our tariffs while ignoring this entirely Also due to the fact that Chinese consumer demand continues to weaken they are not able to sell anywhere close to enough of these cars locally to meet their debt repayments. Either we let them flood our market, or match their insane subsidies. I think tariffs are a reasonable option when these are the alternatives Secondly, EV's are a terrible solution to climate change to begin with, more investment into walkable infrastructure and public transportation would go much further in that regard.

[@ivanandreevich8568]

I don't know where you've been but we also subsidize EVs big time. Bought a Tesla for my business for 53.5% off. All paid for with a first-year tax deduction.

[@codethemonkey]

@@ivanandreevich8568 it's hard to directly compare since they also subsidize almost every step in the process, the lithium in the battery, the steel/aluminum in the frame, as well as the infrastructure used to power the factories and transport goods. Not just the final purchase of the car. 53.5% seems high, you'd have to compare it to what you'd be able to write-off for an equivalent gas vehicle But given that China has hundreds of EV manufacturers it's not hard to see that it's getting juiced hardcore by government spending. Most of which are now shutting down since they created a massive oversupply of vehicles

[@SteveRemedios]

Something that's being missed in the EV commentary is the degree to which modern vehicles are spying information -gathering platforms, able to record location and voice of users passively. So western governments and corporations are of course motivated to shut down these car sales from China from China for the same security reasons that Huawei 5G technology has been blocked in North America along with Tic Toc. The thing is, for our governments to admit the power of these spying and control platforms by China is to admit how much our own governments and corporations use these platforms to exploit and gather information its own populace in quite unsavory and uncomfortable ways. The real US/Canadian concern around Chinese EV vehicles are security-related, just as the concerms around Tic Toc and Huawei are. Domestic governments need domestic control over these powerful spying platforms.

[@Picklemedia]

What will you blame High house prices on now?

[@Observer168]

Vancouver and Toronto will always be expensive. Real estate prices have skyrocketed in almost every major city in the world. Real estate skyrocketed the most in Vancouver because of rich immigrants. We won’t be seeing rapid price growth anytime soon unless the government opens the investment immigration program again.

[@edubmf]

@@Observer168 why? who is paying to live in a dump like Toronto where you get taxed out the ass? Just move to the US.

[@Picklemedia]

@@Observer168 how would you define "High house prices" expressed as an income to housing ratio?

[@Observer168]

@@Picklemedia how do you explain Mumbai having luxury multi million dollar condos while the average person in India makes less than $10 per day? Some people are just freaking rich and have figured out a way to not make “average wages” I also know tons of business people from India and China that have figured out how to break out of poverty and even purchased multiple homes in Vancouver.

[@Picklemedia]

@@Observer168 thank you for answering my question directly. You clearly have the courage of your convictions.

[@duncanmacdonald9266]

Uh oh....they got to you Keith. Signed you up for the young global leaders program to re-educate you 😂

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

hahaha...

[@kqh123]

Is it just me, or are these pods becoming just a random assortment of topics?

[@markhoffman]

Ice Cap in the house, Steve? Feeling like a third wheel yet? Just kidding!

[@chriss729]

3 Amigos 😊

[@chrisT16161]

GM.

[@markhoffman]

From GTA to GTAO= Grand Theft All Over

[@tessaelkington2520]

Boomer??? Are you sitting in the guest room of the CBC's executive director?😂😊😅

[@geraldbrowne]

Can’t wait to meet Keith to buy him a drink for being the looney hour FINANCE TRUTH SAGE.

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

For sure.

[@sonnyyeung6060]

Immigration prevented Canada from Recession in 2023, Q1 AND Q2 2024

[@jhsekiguchi]

first letsgooo :)

[@KeithDickerIceCapAssetManageme]

First!

[@quixomega]

Rich is so xenophobic! 🤣