The government’s latest accounts show its debt’s fallen massively

[@MattsMkia]

The U.S. economy relies on ongoing credit and debt generation for sustenance. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase the money supply, leading to further debt accumulation for the average American. Meanwhile, foreign nations continue to desire the U.S. dollar, despite their own economies facing significant challenges, some even worse than that of the U.S. This situation raises concerns about who will ultimately bear the consequences of these economic dynamics.

[@BellamyGriffin19]

They do say gold will crash in a liquidity crunch However, many of those holding precious metals are preparing for such an event. So they are unlikely to be forced sellers. The paper market would tank and hopefully collapse.

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[@Hectorkante]

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.

[@BulletProofBrain]

Just by walking around our towns and cities you can see and feel the sad desperation of our society.

[@montysmythe579]

Cheer up. We saved 1.5 trillion by Elimination of 40% of the elderly in that time period, I think that's what he said, something about forced treatment 🤔

[@davidhorn6008]

Don't sit and wait for the storm to pass - Learn to dance in the rain.

[@gtolose]

U mean the sad desperation of the peoples - time to stop passing the responsibility for peoples bad decisions onto someone else. We have one life, one chance - we need to get it right and when it dont turn out as maybe u wished, u done yer best, that is all that we can expect.

[@RobinMuirhead]

And if we take a trip to the British Virgin Island’s we can recover over 13 Trillion of unpaid British taxes therefore creating a massive healthy economy. ???

[@TheCam920]

I can't believe there are trillions of *our money* just being hoarded by billionaire dragons and literally nobody cares.

[@michaelrogers4847]

Someone has seen the light,hallelujah. 🤔🤔🤔

[@davidcann8788]

Erm... No. See earlier episodes about tax havens.

[@downshift4503]

There is no money hidden there (ie UK sterling). Only hidden ownership details.

[@RobinMuirhead]

@@downshift4503 The funds exist but not there, the British Virgin Islands are quite poor. If money was there it would be surrounded by aircraft carriers and a have huge military presence. But it does show that the money exists and should be supporting the British people not one percenters!

[@margaretfyffe7252]

So presumably the £1.3 trillion debt fell into the £22 billion black hole.

[@horsemanoftheapocalapse5837]

A trillion is a 1000 billion so be like trying to fit a car through your front door.

[@michaelstokes4497]

Figure was £1.5 Trillion not £1.3 Trillion. Don't forget £22 Billion is £0.022 Trillion. A small amount of the overall figure if you loook at it in the overall sceme of things.

[@majorpentatonic2310]

So can all the state pensioner's have their £100 winter fuel now, please ?

[@FallenPhoenix86]

@@majorpentatonic2310 First it wasn't £100. Second... absolutely not, at least not those that can afford to pay their own bills... Can we stop pretending that they ALL need it, it's not my responsibility to pay Michael Caine's heating bill for him.

[@dlfon99]

​@@FallenPhoenix86Why should it be anyone's responsibility to care for you when you get old? Should they just abandon you? Piss off.

[@montysmythe579]

This message was brought to you by the national people's gas lighting association. 40% of elderly persons were not harmed in this fiscal period by any forced medical treatments

[@twoforty252]

The claim that the UK’s national debt has "fallen massively" by £1.5 trillion is misleading. While the WGA shows a £1.5 trillion reduction in liabilities, this is due to an accounting adjustment from higher interest rates, not an actual reduction in government debt or obligations. The public sector still faces significant long-term pension liabilities, and the overall financial position remains complex. This context is crucial to avoid creating a false impression of fiscal health. Policymakers and the public should focus on the sustainability of obligations rather than transient accounting changes.

[@randomiseduser]

A reduction in liabilities, based on the PRESUMPTION of increased income from investments, due to higher interest rates, looks an accounting trick🤔 it all seems like absolute nonsense anyway..

[@Alan_Duval]

But aren't liabilities a subset of obligations, and so a reduction in liabilities is a reduction in obligations? Not one to get giddy about, sure, but a positive sign nonetheless?

[@hughwilliams5995]

Very good. You've just repeated Richard's explanation without listening to the rest of his talk. He is showing that the classic economists who use your 'misleading' comparisons are 'creating a false impression of fiscal health'. Or fiscal sickness according to them. Then you fail to address the issues of Bonds never reducing in total value and the economy's moiney supply being seen as a debt. Please let me know when the Government has ever paid back its debt as represented by money supply...

[@blackbulldog4897]

@@hughwilliams5995 Fiscal health and fiscal sickness aren't the best way to look at things are they? Better to look at resources available to govt and how it's willing to use them (or not) for the public good.

[@bopndop2347]

@@randomiseduser They are good at making up things. Looks really good on their public reports. Doesn't look so good when you walk around Luton

[@alliedfroth]

None of this make any difference if a society we live in allows an OAP to lie on a frozen pavement with a broken hip & the NHS, Police etc refuse to help.

[@spritzpistol]

Not place of police to provide treatment of an elderly person on the pavement with broken bone, it’s the place of the medical service, paramedic/doctor (or hospital the said patient is transported to)….you cannot just pick people up… I get your point and frustration about public funding, but the police are called in for all the rubbish that kicks off, while your in bed they are busy keeping the drunks and druggies off the street, baby sitting the night owls on a binge, domestics as families can’t get a social worker in the day, let alone after hours. Or they’re chasing after the care home child that won’t stay in care, or the elderly with dementia who leaves the house and the family are worried, and that is not including the serious crimes, such as sexual assault/murder, GBH, hit and run etc, etc, etc. You wouldn’t expect the AA to go after a stolen vehicle, you wouldn’t expect an ambo to drive by and suddenly stop and pick up a drunk off the street, so why would expect the police to move/treat a person with a broken limb. In fact the police do so much more,but also their hands are often tied when it the likes of medical emergencies. However, all the armchair spotters/commentators, who can see issues with the service, maybe you could join the force, if not full time the specials are always happy for help. If you want to point the finger, you only have to look towards the Houses of Parliament for the true culprits in this mashed up world of blame, fame and shame. Lobby your MP for more officers, nurses, doctors, hospitals. Look at the recent petition for a new election, exceeded all levels, why not get one started to sort out the under funded services……

[@swojnowski453]

@@spritzpistol look in the mirror and ask yourself if you are a human. If a policeman sees a person on the street they can fine them, but they can't help? They can't call the right service for help? Really? God, what sort of things live in this country today. One day it might be you on that street, they you will be begging for that policeman to help. Time comes for everyone, but for now enjoy yourself ...

[@Thetache]

@@spritzpistol The police spend more time on hurty word political non crimes than they do in the real world, if they were to stop faffing about policing speech on social media they would have more than enough time and resources to deal with the problems in the street that the public would want them to.

[@alliedfroth]

@@spritzpistol Oh please shut up you bellend!

[@kdeeuk]

@@spritzpistol so the police are just suppose to leave them lying there dying istead of helping to a ambulance arrives then

[@JohnnyCameo]

I found this somewhat confusing for 2 reasons: 1) You speak as if liability and debt are the same thing. Clearly they aren’t. The headline figure that fell due to pensions’ commitments is a liability - not a debt. 2) You say that the debt figure fell because of rising interest rates meaning that there is a higher expectation of income from investments. But what investments? Surely public sector pensions are largely unfunded libilities (ie there is no pot of investments to fund them but they are paid out of tax revenues) Am I missing something?

[@george11419]

Very perceptive. Thank you.

[@kevinchristian1547]

I think he is talking nonsense. The narrative is we can print as much as we want, spend on whatever we want and all will be fine. But like a game of chess you have to think ahead. IMO a key problem is that the UK has a trade balance and we don’t make enough to sustain the quailty of life. The issuance of debt to foreigners helps to stabilise the trade balance. We can’t simply allow the BOE to buy the debt because ultimately we’ll need to exchange pounds for dollars, euros and yen to purchase the goods we need. At which point the pound would slide because foreigners would have nothing to spend their pounds on. If the pound slides we have more inflation and the quality of life will tank with it.

[@azena.]

This is all super confusing. But you've said something that I just want to push a little further to check my understanding. The differentiation you have made between debt and liability, which I think I agree with; for pensions this is essentially how much the country needs to generate in tax to cover that liability over however long until the last person currently working in public sector retires, right (when I pull in your second point)? If I'm paraphrasing then that means I've likely understood what you said, if not then I haven't and I'm more uninformed on it than I thought. Both good outcomes to know about.

[@Cassp0nk]

You are correct and this guy is just a lefty fantasist.

[@mikemurray2027]

They are paid by current contributions. Of course, if you sack all the contributors then your pension scheme will really be 'unfunded'.

[@si1208]

It seems to me that the government starts with the question 'What do we want the accounts to show?', then the bean-counters perform whatever sleight of hand is necessary to show that result.

[@johnmichaelcule8423]

So not because enough people died during the pandemic to reduce the future pension liability? It was my first thought.

[@handlebar4520]

we would've seen that effect occur earlier and, in accordance to what Richard has just said, would've put the UK further in debt since there would've been less long term pension schemes to generate interest from when rates were raised and more inheritance funds from the government they'd have to pay out to those pensioners' relatives.

[@slabbygabby]

​@@handlebar4520 I think they mean people that were already of state pension age

[@johnmichaelcule8423]

@ inheritance funds from the government? To what does this refer?

[@geordie4339]

Mine too

[@GeirRssaak]

HA-HA! BORIS the great handler the pandemic so nice!

[@kodi-78]

In other words its cooking the books. Creative bookkeeping.

[@Vroomfondle1066]

All accountancy is creative.

[@russelljbriscoe]

That’s Rachael from accounts for you .

[@williamchamberlain2263]

No, it's the same calculation as used by the previous governments, and you _have_ to have some forwad-planning on debts owed.

[@Ozspeak]

They have been doing this since last recession

[@andrewwalsh2755]

I was wondering if he was employed as a lavatory cleaner (economist) at the same place Rachel Reeves was employed handling customer complaints (economist)... HBOS??? I wouldn't let him do my company accounts... HMRC would be calling me in for questioning!

[@ritagwenbargee4261]

Simply it means...a drunk will drink himself sober and water will run up hill.

[@Potatoman7]

Failing to invest in the right areas is the downfall of this country.

[@leehowson440]

Exactly, and foreign aid is not an investment, it's an unnecessary expense

[@peterquennellnyc]

@@leehowson440 "Exactly, and foreign aid is not an investment, it's an unnecessary expense" You might have meant this as sarcasm? Actually its half right. In theory it's whats holding back even more mass migrations and paving the way for UK biz. There IS a problem though: all nations' foreign aid METHODS are misconceived. They should be 100% focused on better systems, and local capability to enhance them. Waste of money otherwise. UK is in same boat; very weak at upgrading its systems, whether in or out of EC; both suck. Look to the Asia model.

[@PBFootyfan]

But interest rates just got reduced, so presumably the 2024 accounts and 2025 will show the debt rising again. So, is this totally irrelevant?

[@Thetache]

Exactly what I was thinking, this is all like having cryptocurrency, the value changes by the minute so it is only ever relevant if you are either buying or cashing in. This mans figures would only be relevant if the Government were to pay it all off now.

[@swojnowski453]

longer term debt never falls, debt is a grinding machine that will always take you to a collapse. No escape, not in a system that backs money rather than people. The end is just a matter of time.

[@carelgoodheir692]

@@swojnowski453 Not so. A certain level of government debt can be carried indefinitely. But predicting what that safe level is ......

[@outcastp23]

@@swojnowski453 The National debt as a percentage of GDP after WW2 was at 250%, in 1990 is was 20%, not it's back up to something like 100% because 2007 finicial crisis and Pandemic. If it never falls, explain how it was only at 20% of GDP 1990.

[@cloughy010199]

That is sort of the point of the video. The message is how do we get to what the real 'debt' is. If the liabilities can drop by almost 40% in one year, it would imply that a good chunk of our financial messages are actually based on stuff that doesn't really matter in the short to medium term. Our GDP is ~£3.4 trillion. So if we assume another year of higher interest rates since March 2023 brings our national debt down a little further, then we are operating at a debt level closer to 40% of GDP, not 110%GDP which is what current government messaging suggests. As others have said, the complexities of accounting means these figures can very easily be made to seem really high, whilst not actually being liabilities due for payment any time soon. As Richard said in the video, these are liabilities due, in some cases, in 40-50 years time and they are being counted against national debt now.

[@WillowUfgood]

The question then becomes, why is the narrative of government poverty being pushed? Who stands to gain from austerity?

[@tiggtiggs]

We live in a wage theft, debt slavery & wealth transfer system in the corporate captured West. Austerity keeps the above system going & lines the pockets of those who continue too enforce it.

[@lacdirk]

What the good professor is talking about is a technical number with little relevance to the actual finances of the government. When the interest rate goes up, the current value of future expenses (presumed to grow less than those expenses ... which isn't true for indexed pensions) goes down. But the practical current day consequence of Truss's interest rate boost is that the cost of servicing the extant debt near-doubled to 85 billion in the financial year ending in 2023. That's 85 billion that is raised from taxes or from increasing the actual extant debt that is not going to healthcare, education, defence etc. So in reality, the budget situation is very grim.

[@harrisonbergeron9746]

rich people who want to make money out of privatised public sector businesses...

[@DavidByrne85]

Privatizers. We can't afford to own anything or build anything, thats why blackrock is gonna own all the bridges we build and put tolls on them

[@skasteve6528]

They have to maintain the pretence that Labour is financially incompetent.

[@jamessutton9323]

If we choose not to reduce the debt then we have the burden of interest payments which are fast becoming unsustainable

[@outcastp23]

It's something like £100 billion already, that's twice as much as we spend on defence of the realm.

[@mikemurray2027]

Then we must tax the wealth held by the rich.

[@yannmaenden7236]

Two points: 1) Debt as a percentage of GDP at the end of Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 was 0.9 percentage points more than at the end of Quarter 4 2022. 2) The most recent monthly figures show the government borrowed £17.4bn in October 2024, which was the second highest October figure since monthly records began in 1993.

[@markrainford1219]

Sooo what is your analysis?

[@tastypymp1287]

So?

[@FlavourlessLife]

But don’t worry because boomer economist tells you it’s just “something not to worry about and to just deal with when the time comes”. Hilarious.

[@leehowson440]

Rachel from accounts is sprinting towards the dispatch box right now, to tell us what a fabulous job she's doing

[@spidermann1256]

Rachel from accounts? I thought she was from Customer Services.

[@lawrencejob]

someone didn't watch the video

[@johnevans8340]

Rachel worked in complaints

[@andrewflindall9048]

​@@johnevans8340Her most successful role - she got way more than the rest of the team combined...

[@jamestkirk6198]

Not ! 😂😂

[@charlescawley9923]

I got a distinct sense of smoke and mirrors. It seemed a bit contrived.

[@paultaylor7082]

Give any accountant a set of figures, he'll give you an answer you want to here. If it were this simple, eh? Let's see how many people who are experts in the field agree with this assessment here.

[@LuminosityUK]

Imho this is massively oversimplifying the hideously complex relationship between national debt, inflation, interest rates, and futures this relationship is not fixed and depends heavily on factors like investor confidence, central bank policies, and the economic environment. You can’t simply “deal with it when” anything without plotting a scenario choc full of assumptions.

[@montysmythe579]

Because it was, jab jab period, 40% , what else went up 40% in that same period.

[@billfromgermany]

I am a retired ACA and found this a) fascinating, b) hard to get my head round, and c) that my snakeoil alarm went beserk! No criticism of the eminent professor, but I definitely need to dig deeper.

[@shaunsprogress]

Criticise away! If he had stated what he said in more pain terms it would be obviously bullcrud.

[@nickwilson8119]

I think what he's saying is that there is a pot put aside for pensioners which is much smaller than the pension liability - hence the pension contribution to debt. Because the government assumes that pot will grow at the current interest rate it's assuming returns of 5% not 2% for the next 30 years. This means the difference between the forecasted pension pot and actual liabilities is much smaller so we owe less money

[@billfromgermany]

@ Thanks for the reply, but the figures don‘t reassure me. If 5% returns are assumed, then the conclusion that the pot will be be bigger is correct. However, this seems to me to be a very optimistic assumption. 30+ years running finance in a number of companies required forecasting which looked at different scenarios, and the risks/upsides of each. I have no idea how the treasury arrives at its financial modeling assumptions, but would be very wary of cheering that‘s all‘s well.

[@azena.]

My snakeoil alarm is also sounding on so many levels. I feel like these kinds of accounts should include real rather than imaginary assets and liabilities. Future growth or shrinkage should, in my uninformed opinion, be completely separate from something like this. It's also not clear to me that he stated there is a pension pot of money (but I may have missed it).

[@ianclark9598]

I might be mistaken, but you did not show the pension figures, showed the previous screen.

[@matthewdobson100]

you're not mistaken, was going to say the same thing.

[@simapark]

Only a tiny number of viewers noticed that as they were totally bamboozled by the rest of it .

[@realbigtrouble]

You beat me to it. @ 3mins 23sec

[@SalehSingħ]

Now now, you can’t cram everything into one video

[@evaburnz]

@@simapark immediately upon noticing the incorrect figures displayed, I scrolled the comments for this. I was dismayed with the lack of attention paid to the error.

[@markmewordz6860]

'Statistics - the art of lying, with accuracy' Benjamin Disraeli.

[@Tensquaremetreworkshop]

This is, of course, future liabilities, not current debt. So there are no current costs. As clearly stated on the screen, it will be paid from future income. As an analogy, consider a family with a mortgage on their house. If they kept accounts, the outstanding amount on their home loan would appear as a debt. But the cumulative interest on servicing that debt (the interest) would not. It would be paid monthly, as part of their home loan payments. To be clear, the national debt has NOT fallen by £1T5- it is the liabilities that have fallen. This is of some interest to accountants, but is not a driver for anything else.

[@hound91]

This is the right summary

[@jasonhaven7170]

Never compare government debt to household debt

[@Tensquaremetreworkshop]

@@jasonhaven7170 They are not the same, but there are some similarities. You should never compare it to company debt either- but Richard does, all the time.

[@paultaylor7082]

Currently the Exchequer is paying £100 billion a year, each year, to pay just for the interest on the National Debt (currently £2.6 trillion), a debt that is increasing, year on year, as for a number of years the Exchequer has spent more money than it received (this year, tax year 2024/5, the estimated figure for the overspend is £127.5 billion)

[@Tensquaremetreworkshop]

@@paultaylor7082 Virtually all western governments run a deficit. It is the %age of GDP that interests those that fund it. Which is why governments are obsessed with GDP. Growth at all costs. If you cannot increase productivity (and the track record is poor) then get more people. Why do you think there are hundreds of thousands of immigrants every year?

[@ABCDefpaco]

Rates are coming down. The idea you'll just cross your fingers and hope rates stay high is patently absurd.

[@montysmythe579]

When you eliminate the obvious, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. Jab jab, sir

[@lacdirk]

The amount of government expenditure on servicing the outstanding debt went from 31.6 billion in FY19 to 85.1 billion in FY23. That's significantly more than the country spent on defence. Pretty soon it may challenge the spending on education.

[@knoll9812]

Good point which the video should address. He is talking accounts. Interest payments are real.

[@Vanzee-fb2xb]

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[@peterreeves6825]

On the reduction of liabilities due to higher interest rates, does that mean the liabilities go back up as interest rates reduce?

[@RecoveringHermit]

Yes. It’s just a valuation.

[@jamiecook8239]

Who is the UK in debt to??

[@ThomasVWorm]

​@@jamiecook8239 because of its almost permanent trade deficits in the past decades, to the foreign countries the UK trades with.

[@carelgoodheir692]

@@jamiecook8239 Pensioners including all future pensioners, and those who have bought government bonds.

[@elethio]

This is great, thank you.

[@chad0x]

Bit the tories said there's no money for any public spending. Were they lying to us?

[@montysmythe579]

Nooo 🤥

[@missma7882]

It doesn't matter to ordinary folk who never feel it. Rich people continue to tax avoid

[@slave2damachine]

I was told by a man who employed me on just over the minimum wage that his wage was £120000 per anum and his 2 houses were worth over £3 million that I pay more tax than he does .

[@chrismeredith8995]

​@@slave2damachinethe more tax you pay, the better you are doing. Until some uneducated, envious of its wasted life, labour voter interferes

[@kdog3908]

Now show us how much the rate debt is accruing. I'd be far happier if our debt is going down because revenue is increasing to pay it off and we're wasting less on crap. Account fudging is just copium, ultimately.

[@Gjehcyekcgev]

If you have to ask an adult to show you something, maybe skip the next bit where you blather on with your opinion on a topic which you don't fully understand yet.

[@hardstylelife5749]

Since I can put myself into the “not fully understand” bunch , do you fancy to explain it to us? Since despite understand the video I couldn’t quite grasp the whole implications and meaning

[@Gjehcyekcgev]

@@hardstylelife5749 I will try but I'm worried I'll be wrong. I'm also not a British citizen so please forgive my lack of nuance. Pensions hold a variety of assets, with different risks and returns. In developed countries they are often large, wealthy organizations with a large, growing amount of older citizens who will be paid from them monthly / yearly. This money has to be pulled from the pension funds assets. The accepted wisdom is that as you age you move your investments into safer categories like bonds. While stocks have provided higher returns over long windows of time they fluctuate more in price. I believe your pension funds hold more government bonds. These are lower risk, lower return assets but can be laddered or staggered so they have known dates where the money can be rolled over into the next bond or pulled from the pension fund and paid to the pensioners. As interest rates rise, the return on each new bond has to be increased to attract purchasers like the pension funds. Maybe the rates are 4.X% now instead of 2.X% before. This means your pension fund will last longer without new money coming in. I'm not familiar with all the specifics in Britain and there are many factors. I'd like to point out that if the pension fund is making 4% now, your various levels of government are likely paying more for new debt as well. I'm of the opinion that there are many worthwhile things that can be built to add immensely to the output and productivity of a nation. High speed rail, efficient public health and education. Money can also be wasted on the exact same things. I hope this helped, if anything is incorrect, it's due to my own ignorance.

[@jam99]

@@hardstylelife5749 I couldn't even understand the basic premise @4:00 that the government liabilities decrease (an institution in debt) when interest rates rise.

[@macky4074]

​@Gjehcyekcgev he didn't give an opinion. He stated what would make him happy to hear. Maybe you should grasp the English language before giving out your opinion!

[@chrisrobinson860]

Brilliant Richard as always. Cogently argued and simply put 👍.

[@RobWhittlestone]

VERY INTERESTING! I know nothing about accounting, so it's refreshing to have a real expert debunk the appalling fearmongering. So there is also no 22 billion hole.

[@richardlynch1424]

wow didnt know that the elderly heating payments attuned to that mush debt

[@latheofheaven1017]

This is a field I have no expertise in. But if you're correct Richard, neither do successive Chancellors or even Treasury Departments.

[@montysmythe579]

He isn't

[@geoffreynhill2833]

Economics must be kept complicated so people can be conned. 🤔

[@mrjoe5292]

It's incredible to me how many people see conspiracies everywhere. No one's trying to trick you, it's just a difficult subject. There are a lot of moving parts, a lot of information, and a lot of ways to interpret that information. Of course if you think otherwise then by all means, simplify it for everyone. Can't be that hard if it's actually simple, right? Just have to work through some of the obfuscations, which might be a bit of work but probably not all too hard, just need to find a few honest economists! And you'd be able to put all those schemers keeping everything complicated out of their jobs! You want to talk about intentional complexity you'd be better taking shots at professions that have overly eager Latin usage for concepts we could very easily have understandable English terms for.

[@localreviewking134]

Ok, can the UK gov. lend me a £50 till pay day?

[@markrainford1219]

When is your payday?

[@polla2256]

Jump in a dinghy, they'll give you a hotel, phone, 3 meals a day and free money.

[@localreviewking134]

@@markrainford1219 Everyday!

[@philleasthouse3791]

So - much of the prognostications and predictions made are "journal entries" on paper that can (and do) move from one side to the other on the balance sheet.

[@richardhayes9919]

Brilliant. I call all debt 'capital' problem solved. Thanks professor

[@PhyzzFizz]

so they told us a few weeks ago how that are going to use another method to calculate the national debt, then as if by magic, the national debt falls by more that the US military budget for a year in one month, ok, sounds legit

[@adrianph9564]

Is there no way to know/predict how we stand now in 2024, or will we not know until the end of November 2025 how we did for the 2024 financial year. Must admit it seems like a typical accountant idea moving money around to provide what ever figures they want to show.

[@imbonkers3629]

Uk national debt clock ⏰ or world debt clock give u up2 date debt

[@paultaylor7082]

The current official Treasury estimate is by the end of tax year 2024/5, the Exchequer will have spent £127.5 billion more than it collected in taxes, so the National Debt will increase from £2.6 trillion to just over £2.7 trillion. If somebody here questions these figures, take it up with the Treasury or the Office for Budget Responsibility. Usually an estimate so comparatively late in the tax year (now) is liable to be fairly accurate.

[@CharlesWilliams-jf2nb]

How is that possible? How much interest are we now paying on this lower national debt?

[@fractionaldebtisfraud2187]

That is the question! Gilt holders will want all their interest. If it's not paid they will start screaming, default! And government knows it!

[@railwaysmodelselectronics7636]

It is a confusion of different things. No interest is paid on that 'debt' because it refers to costs not yet incurred. It is just an accountancy method of suggesting how much money it would cost today if you put money aside to pay the next generation's pensions.The government isn't going to do that, so it is meaningless. It doesn't mean that actual debts have changed at all.

[@GabrielMartinFlores]

Thank you for the overview. It’s very interesting! Love your videos!

[@bittired7159]

The ONS website graph for national debt does not show the figures you’re quoting.

[@Deppel57]

More accounting silliness. CPI is calculated using a basket of goods that nobody buys in 2024, because they bought them in 2022, and therefore they are much cheaper. Gilts need to yield a rate comparable to the FTSE, and that has to be serviced. What are current yields? 4.5% or so. Can the US use the same accounting trick with their massive debt? Nobody seems to be worried about it as the S&P's valuation is just crazy now.

[@PJH13]

The pension liability for the US Fed govt. is actually (surprisingly) much smaller than the UK already. That's because they have fewer employees (teachers are state-level and no NHS) and it's partially pre-funded. Even if you include all the states it's barely larger than the UK, because they're 80% pre-funded.

[@2112jonr]

We need to clear out the tax havens of stolen money, and invest the trillions in a national sovereign wealth fund.

[@carlrogers2432]

Its all jiggery pokery.

[@johnpettigrew83]

President Bush Jnr called it " fuzzy math"

[@montysmythe579]

Indeed, jiggery jabbery Pfizer pokery in the arm.

[@michaelmcginn7260]

Thank you.

[@Themanincumbent]

There is a uk national debt clock on the internet that uses ONS data. Today it shows 2.78 trillion pounds and is growing at approx £2500 per second

[@williamwilson4162]

If we are that well off can I have my heating allowance back.

[@swojnowski453]

move out of the UK, you will not need one.

[@kenwilkins8237]

We must be quite well off as Ed Silliband has just given 11.6 billion pounds to Africa for climate change bollox.

[@williamwilson4162]

@swojnowski453 where would you suggest.

[@paulskerritt1627]

The graphics at 3:16 don't match up with what is being discussed - seems like there was an editing error here, Richard, just fyi

[@video-carl]

And, why would monies owed to pensioners change, rather than an "interest earned" line increase?

[@rfrisbee1]

Yes. It doesn't inspire confidence when the numbers uttered don't match the numbers displayed!

[@video-carl]

@@rfrisbee1 mistakes happen, and they're pretty rare from Richard

[@rfrisbee1]

@video-carl I would suggest he either replaces the video with the errors corrected or puts a pinned comment explaining the errors. What I got most from the video is how detached from reality accountancy and economic policy is.

[@garymarshall4375]

Also 3:43 error?

[@davebellamy4867]

You don't need to worry about the debt because the central bank will buy it all.😂😅🤣🙄

[@callumkenmuir2825]

Just proves that you can't believe a word this government says.

[@davidlucas6701]

Invested government s WEF agenda ,at our cost! Starmer and sunak,like our monarch all work for the WEF, not Britain!

[@willbee6785]

And we have a Chancelor who was a complaints manager. So what tosh have we being listening to?

[@DwynAgGaire]

WHat a shell game. The global south are very right to be utterly sceptical of engaging with this racket of a system.

[@peterquennellnyc]

More than that. They turned their backs on it. Are putting in myriad better systems which upgrade value fast.

[@adamross6474]

Ah! So they are inflating the debt away.

[@I-be-steviebe]

no, it's the fact that they are taxing us by the back door!

[@GeorgeBodley-hs1ss]

UK cooking the Books again?you don't go from three trillion debt in such s short time .

[@paultaylor7082]

Exactly. Accountants made Carillion appear solvent, in around 2018/19. Within a year, it had gone bust, owing £1.1 billion and taking down a number of suppliers as well. Anybody telling you accountancy is an exact science, like mathematics, is havin' a laff.

[@grumpygramps1451]

When in the military many, many moons ago, we had a saying “if you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit”. It refers to officers (or Rupert’s as we called them) spoke in a posh accent but most of them were a little dim between the ears so, if you couldn’t dazzle them, you’d baffle them. This video is an example of that.

[@Radictor44]

We saved £1.5trillion of debt? Did SNP & Scotland finally leave the UK 🤣

[@derekjc777]

Richard, you didn’t display the government pension values.

[@montysmythe579]

😂😂😂😂 ah yes, the old can't back up my bs ploy, well spotted, sir

[@davidmcculloch8490]

The misunderstanding is perpetuated by lazy journalism: taking briefings from press releases without analysis or explanation. I have an ongoing debate with the BBC labelling the difference between government spending and tax receipts as debt. It's either a deficit or a surplus, which is entirely different.

[@kevinbull9284]

I couldn't agree more. It drives me wild!

[@davidcann8788]

Journalists (and others) need to understand that tax receipts are never an asset for the government. You can't claim your own IOUs as an asset, otherwise we'd all be zillionaires at the Stoke of a pen.

[@rich-rothschild1400]

Don’t forget, it’s the right hand press. Who are being paid by the billionaires to suppress and give out bad news. Because basically is in their interest for the economy to be like exactly like it is so they can make more money. This is the reason why or should I say one of the reasons.

[@randomiseduser]

Excuse my ignorance, but doesn't the government make up the difference between gov spending and tax receipts, by issuing bonds.. Therefore it's perfectly reasonable to label it as debt??

[@randomiseduser]

​​@@davidcann8788crypto has entered the chat lol.. the crypto bros have learnt well; if the gov can do it why not individuals and private citizens? 🤣 Create a project, create a token and bs use case, add the token to your project's balance sheet and voila instant riches

[@john-s3w6c]

Found this by chance but so very greatful for what Richard said. Completely eye opening, enlightening and liberating. I will be writing to my MP to ask what the UK's suggestion box would look like of we had one, and how do we as citizens get ideas to those that run the country?! The nation is above all the sum of its parts and the UK really can do it. Provided the ideas are there to innovate, create and generate growth......come on Britain lets do this!

[@Samaa-os7hx]

Your heart and mind is in the right place, unfortunately, the government's is not

[@montysmythe579]

Almost unbelievable 🤔

[@john-s3w6c]

@@montysmythe579 another nay sayer......

[@montysmythe579]

@john-s3w6c And whom might that be ?

[@Kvik1231]

That is some pretty convoluted logic

[@pobishop235]

I wonder what they did about the assumed future levels of pay, having just granted huge pay awards, which immediately increase the pension obligation?

[@billykotsos4642]

Public debt is private credit

[@valvalientthor9450]

Why are people not happy with current interest rate at 5% ? In 1694 the interest rate was first set high at 8% (by Henry Cavendish.btw). The current rate is where it should be. Anything below 2% should be a major concern. Stop gambling with your mortgages and get a fixed rate, alow savers to save you plonkers.

[@valvalientthor9450]

*allow

[@Pax_Veritas]

Yes, the average historical interest rate in the US and UK is around 5%. We look at things upside down since the year 2000 and the advent of universal banks and mass centralised intervention (manipulation) of markets. The higher the interest rate the higher the demand for money/capital, meaning that borrowers have an objective/aspiration to put that capital to effective use and get a real positive return. When interest rates are low or indeed zero, we get all sorts of perversions like allowing enormous corporations to run unprofitably in a never-ending quest for growth. The markets then value the shares of this enterprise based on growth or market share rather than solid and sustainable underlying fundamentals and profitability. Our problem is we became addicted to cheap (worthless) money to keep the wheels turning of our unsustainable perpetual growth model and we ended up with an unprecedented concentration of wealth and power (the most valuable corporations as a % of the total index are at higher levels than before the GD of the 1930s). We have the whole Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street unholy trinity who own a piece of every corporation in every major index and are the largest individual shareholders in each other (Vanguard is the largest shareholder of Blackrock and vice-versa). This gives them a combined effective controlling interest in every listed corporation in the western world. The above dynamics of seeking perpetual growth through monetary expansion and cheap capital combined with the centralisation of power and wealth, created the mess we are currently in - the price of everything continually goes up while wages remain suppressed precisely because the unholy trinity and every major listed company are incentivised to engineer this scenario in order to boost their own personal compensation (share price number goes up, and up, and up, to record levels historically and in terms of P/E ratios, etc). As only a small portion of the population own the vast majority of shares, the overarching theme is towards a globalist system of the ruling class and the peasant with the middle class being hollowed out. To visualise inequality in the UK, the top 50 richest families have a combined wealth of £466 billion while the bottom 50% of the entire country also own £466 billion (Figures from The Equality Trust, University of Greenwich and ONS, 2023) Interest rates are important but in order to fix the problems with government finance and societal inequality, we need to smash the homogenous global blob that controls the financial world. Regular people often wonder why the governments of the UK, Commonwealth, EU and USA seem to have such similar policies, like they are singing from the same hymn sheet. That is an historical aberration as different regions within the west used to be in competition with each other or at the very least would promote their own cultural versions of economics within a common framework (the economy of Germany is not the same as France or Spain so why would they have identical laws, interest rates and policies?). The answer is the centralisation of national and international wealth and power. We can't achieve real change in any country (we have a uniparty system) because we exist to serve the corporation, not the country or the population, due to the fact the corporate system is incentivised to follow this path for their own self-interest (raise prices, suppress wages, centralise and harmonise wealth and power). To fix the UK balance sheet, UK economy, provide wealth and growth for the masses, we need to break up the corporate control. That's proving to be impossible as the central corporate control has infiltrated and captured regulators, media and all sides of government (the uniparty). Everybody and everything that attempts to disrupt their central command gets lambasted legally, politically and culturally. Note how they now hate Elon Musk, Twitter and so forth, when they used to love Elon and Twitter. Musk hasn't changed his companies still operate in the same way as everybody else's and Twitter hasn't changed, the only that changed is the bias of censorship that permitted dissenting voices to openly speak up against the central system Germany are trying to ban AfD, France are trying to ban Marine le Pen, the USA attempted and almost succeeded in banning Trump for running for POTUS, the media slaughters Poland and Hungary for their anti-migrant, anti-globalist stance, along with Giorgia Meloni who is regularly labelled "far right extremist", when she is anything but. We have Geert Wilders who isn't given the time of day by mainstream media. In the UK the media has vilified Nigel Farage as a "far right extremist racist fascist", imprisoned Tommy Robinson and tens of thousands of person for their social media posts and political views. The common thread and bare two-tiered hypocrisy is that one side of the spectrum - the indoctrinated who promote the agenda of the central financial unholy trinity - are literally allowed to say anything they want, protest however they want, with zero pushback. They are releasing paedophiles, violent criminals and terrorists to replace them with political dissenters. They do not want us to know that we have an alternative choice that redistributes wealth much more equitably in society and rebuilds our middle classes as they used to be (e.g. one professional income like a doctor or solicitor can comfortably support a homemaker, 2 children, a house, 2 cars and a foreign holiday every year). My apologies I started writing and went off on a rant but that is the truth of it. The rise of inflation, of cryptocurrency, of parallel societies, rampant inequality and unfairness in the midst of technological marvels, wars and conflict, is the result of The Party acting in its own self-interest against 90% of the general population and in open warfare against the bottom 50% of all persons.

[@kenwilkins8237]

Unfortunately many people have bought property at low mortgage rates ,and they never believed that the mortgage rates would go up.The low mortgage rates have also contributed to property prices booming over the last 10 years. If mortgage rates don't go down in the next 12 months then there may well be a house price correction.

[@Pax_Veritas]

@@kenwilkins8237 That is certainly a factor but there's a bigger factor in the UK - mass migration at > 10 times the historical average. The latest figures say 906,000 net migration in 2023. Those figures don't include illegals and those that slipped through the net. They all need places to live. In areas of London and other major cities around the UK, for every property available to buy or rent there are 15+ people wanting to buy/rent. With regards social housing, native Britons have been on the waiting lists for years. If migration remains at these insanely high levels then house prices are only going in one direction. If we factored out migration and just concentrated on interest rates and cost of living, then house prices would be stagnant or falling How high can prices go? We can compare with other developed markets like Hong Kong, Singapore, LA, SF, Tokyo, Vancouver, and unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your POV, we can conclude that house prices can and probably will continue to rise from roughly 50% of net income in the UK spent on housing to match the 70%+ of net income spent on housing and housing related costs in other jurisdictions There is great regional variation within the UK with house prices - some areas have regained and greatly exceeded the peak prices of 2007/8 while other areas are still down 25-35% from their peak valuations. There is also variation between house price brackets with the lower and middle priced properties being relatively more unaffordable than the high price properties for the top 10% When rates are higher that by default makes return on investments higher, with returns > inflation while house prices track closely with inflation over the long term. Those with financial assets, securities, crypto, property for rent or property with a yield, they will make money faster than house prices will rise, making property cheaper for the rich, relatively speaking, and more expensive for the poor as a % of their disposable income.

[@jam99]

Those with savings love it. Those in debt at variable rate hate it. You can't say "people" meaning everyone. It has always been thus.

[@simonhodgetts6530]

So, we’re still bankrupt, but slightly less bankrupt than reported.

[@blackbulldog4897]

No, not bankrupt, or anything like. The UK is a self-financing state.

[@ridley68]

How does this work when most public sector pensions are not funded, so have no funds to invest?

[@paul29961]

But cost of government borrowing must have also increased?

[@Andreavince-v]

Coming out of facing alot, I knew two things about the stock market: It caused the Great Depression, and the fastest way to make a million on the markets was to start with two million. And then the Great Recession happened only a few years later. So yeah, I wish someone had better explained it to me earlier in life. Having a good entry and exit strategy will make you succeed in the stock market.

[@CharlesT.Foster]

There are actually a lot of ways to make high yields in a crisis, but such trades are best done under the supervision of Financial advisor.

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

Exactly, most of the investors pays more attention to the profit aspect forgetting that the market involves ups and down. securing your financial position requires lots of patience and proper education on the market so as to know the right profitable stock to buy and invest in. I made over $260k in profits, from just the Q4 of 2021. Investing in the stock market is most profitable when you understand how the market actually works.

[@RobertS.Headrick]

I really acknowledge your comment, i have been trading stocks for a while now but i have not been able to make much. how do you achieve this feat?

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

Her name is Stacy Lynn Staples can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like.

[@pauline-o2q]

Thank you for sharing, I must say,Stacy Lynn Staples appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive.

[@stuartsbartlett3829]

Thank you once again for your lesson. It is a great help to understand these topics

[@Dan-hg7db]

What isn’t mentioned is that future pension payments are assumed to remain constant while inflation, reflected in the higher interest rate, is stealing the purchasing power of those payments. So, the money has been stolen from the pensioners. How is that a good thing?

[@Tomm9y]

I thought the phonegate Transport Minister had agreed to bumper payrises for train drivers for 3 years, only £135million. Doctors and Nurses too. Oh, well that will be covered by taking out of the payrolls of the lowest paid, the likes of Tesco will cut hours, add a 1p to price of train driver's pasties.

[@joyboricua3721]

Sounds like some service providers got the pierce.

[@PeterHutt]

Do you have COLA on UK pensions? Interest and inflation are correlated.

[@spacetime3]

Richard - i dont come from finance background but I do seem to be understanding what you are saying to an extent... if what you are saying is true then why do we get rejections from the market example of liz truss's unfunded tax cuts etc. I hope you are correct I just don't understand why we don't invest in that case. Under Investment has always been one of our key issues.

[@piripinui]

Interest rates have gone down since 2023 so surely that means that the liability difference between 2022 and 2023 has gone back up again, almost to pre-inflation levels right?

[@graham197103010]

Was about to say the same🤔, just checking not everyone was fooled by this channel🙄👍

[@guyjeffries7168]

Videos like this illustrate the when politicians their mass media mouthpoices says "grown up politics" and "now the grown ups are in charge" and "hard choices" they are just trying to stop you questioning thier deceit.

[@Justin-in-the-wilderness]

Total BS, they're borrowing more than anytime in living history but that's Leibour all over!!

[@aaronmicalowe]

Saying that the debt will only cost £50 billion a year is assuming we don't incur any new debt. We will of course, incur new debt to add to that.

[@timstone5112]

Current debt 2.5 trillion. Government and NHS pension 2 trillion. National subsistence and immigration 20 trillion and rising. The future is looking like a financial catastrophe for our children.

[@faramir]

What is the basis for that £20 trillion. Fake news?

[@st200ol]

Complicated, how do we expect the 2.8m people that have signed a petition for a general election to understand this?

[@goodlookinouthomie1757]

What's this got to do with the current government? The figures are for 22/23.

[@dublodave7860]

'Rachel from accounts' certainly won't..

[@ChrisSavenSH]

@@goodlookinouthomie1757 correct but that would assume most people were capable of joined up thinking. Something happens now, it's the current government's achievement/fault....

[@nickj3287]

I only signed the petition because, the government keeps talking and not getting the job done .... I mean tell us when the jobs done instead of telling us your going to do it once a week... And if you think I don't understand , I was looking at the financial markets yesterday, and was like , that would be a great investment, but they suspended trading in that currency... Btw Ukrainian bonds are over 11 percent ... I used to read a lot about all stuff related to financial markets, but mainly companies purchases and acquisitions, as I found it interesting... Well I studyed some chartered accountancy around 2000 and between 2003 and 2014 I invested a little in some unknown companies I researched a lot about all inward and outward activities .. Don't underestimate what each person knows or could learn in the future ... For me Richard is like a teacher , with a short online lesson, with the headline of do you remember this ...

[@willumbermarchant5510]

That petition is amazing. Let's just re run every election if we don't like the result. People living in cloud cuckooland

[@valeriegrimshaw1365]

The other thing that's fallen is OUR quality of life and our safety in our own communities....

[@pobishop235]

I can't believe that the actuaries signed off on this. They usually use a long-term assumed rate that doesn't fluctuate with short term changes in rates.

[@cryptoengineer9930]

I just looked on Google, and it says the UK owes £2.8 trillion. That seems a lot.

[@fractionaldebtisfraud2187]

Almost seems like the government can just make up the amount to suit itself. The opposition won't create, because it will serve them if they ever need to do the same thing. What government can't weasel out of is the interest they owe on gilts. As gilt holders will expect to receive the interest they are owed. Trouble for the government to some extent is interest expense crowding out other current expenditure. Government took fright at the thought of not being able to increase borrowing because interest was essentially becoming less affordable, even for them. Hence, needed to re-jig what counts as "good" debt. Basically only thing that really bothers government is (too much) inflation. As we don't want to end up like Greece and definitely not Argentina.

[@iainawatson]

Wait a minute, doesn't that mean that if interest rates go down again, then the debt will explode again? Isn't that the really obvious takeaway?

[@fatdoi003]

base on his theory, interest rate should keep going up to wipe all debts away.... like magic.....

[@stephengraham1153]

Yes!

[@shaunsprogress]

This is absolute rubbish. Unlimited debt is an asset? It is the case the issuance of more debt expands the money supply, which is inflationary, and printing more currency to pay off said interest is inflationary. This is a de facto default on debt. A loss of confidence from global investors sparked the Truss budget meltdown and we could see this again as people realise they are making a real loss on their "investments." Please read "this time it's different". The government isn't earning money on the pensions it owes because it doesn't have the money anymore! It's an unfunded liability.

[@benjaminjones5029]

Starmer is worse than Nick Leeson.

[@marcmulhall5146]

I guess that hyperinflation would do away with the national debt too. What a numpty.

[@martynanstis1620]

I hope liebour won’t be claiming this as their doing.

[@geoffsmith1479]

I'd have more confidence in this video if the professor had included a link to his source, hadn't trimmed the selective lines of the tables so tightly out of context, had been upfront that columns had been edited out of the tables and not ignored so much surrounding contextual information of expenditures and assets.

[@montysmythe579]

Yes, jab jab 😉

[@dhenier4652]

My state has a larger population than the UK and we have a balanced budget. It's written in our constitution. Why is the UK in any debt?

[@Squaretable22]

What state? Much of the UKs debts were racked up in COVID and the 2008 Financial Crisis to act as a safety net and bail out banks gone bust respectively. A lot of the time our budget is in the black but we need to repay debts accumulated in the past

[@anncaldwell3999]

It's because you have no or seriously under funded public services in the US.

[@blueyhis.zarsoff1147]

You can have massive debt and still balance your budget

[@nagoranerides3150]

A budget which is always balanced is a bad budget pretending that it's still the 11th century. But, very good news for the rich. I wonder who wrote your constitution?

[@edwardpreston3663]

Keynesian Economists!

[@Hiram8866]

That was very interesting, I will have to watch it again, as it goes against the narrative of unsustainable national debt.

[@edwardpreston3663]

Don't bother. This guy hasn't a clue. I bet he's a Keynesian economist.

[@GabrielMartinFlores]

3:19 the figures you’re citing in the monologue do not match the figures shown on screen.

[@danielkrcmar5395]

How did the government do this?... Massive fudging of the books.

[@billbanks5841]

TOTAL BS!!!!!!!!!!!

[@imbonkers3629]

Correct

[@jakestilson1947]

The usual comment from those bigots too ignorant to comprehend what`s going on.

[@BuddingBudlia-si6ip]

how come?

[@imbonkers3629]

@@BuddingBudlia-si6ip u want to see our real debt up2 the second search 👀 uk national debt clock ⏰

[@davidpickard9393]

Ask an Acountant what 1+1 =. His answer is what do you want the total to be.

[@paultaylor7082]

I ran a small company for 34 years, recently retired. My accountant wanted to ask me each year if I wanted to show a profit or loss, as that can impact in carrying over losses to offset previous profits. Richard Murphy knows economics isn't as straightforward as he seems to make out. I'll defer to more qualified people in the field, rather than listening to one person's take on the situation.

[@billywiz1307]

So back in 2010 when the Tories took office and government debt was at 800Billion, and by 2017 had risen to 1.7Trillion, were these figures wrong?

[@seamuspadraigsanders431]

Yes the Conservatives saved the economy and added trillions lost by Labour in 2009. This gave us the fastest growth in decades. 4 months of Labour and we're now technically forecast a depression regarding growth when accounting for public sector rise + minimum wage + mass immigration + inflation.

[@billywiz1307]

@@seamuspadraigsanders431yeah right, and moon is made of cheese

[@seamuspadraigsanders431]

@billywiz1307 Looks like Labours manifesto was made of cheese. University fees not ended but up. Small boat crossing up. Taxes up, Inflation up, growth negative, jobs market shrinking, lowest approval ratings in British history, fraud cases involving donors, the transport secretary and the exchequer who it turns out is not even an economist but a complaints manager. Worse on every single metric compared to every single government since WW2.

[@EzraMerr]

Other nations are dropping UK bonds/gilts?

[@actualfacts1055]

Cooking the books just like Labor does in Australia, no surprise there.

[@RyanGosling-z8w]

Thanks for continuing updates I'd rather trade the stock market as it's more profitable. I make an average of $34,500 per week even though I barely trade myself.

[@Thomas-g6o]

Do you invest with a professional broker??I'd appreciate it if you show me how to go about it.

[@RyanGosling-z8w]

It's Elizabeth Regina Nelsen doing she's changed my life. A BROKER- like her is what you need.

[@CLIENT-v1z]

YES!!! that's exactly her name (Mrs Elizabeth Regina Nelsen) so many people have recommended highly about her and I'm just starting with her from Brisbane Australia🇦🇺

[@RobotsWilliams]

Wow! Kind of in shock you mentioned expert, Elizabeth Regina Nelsen. What a coincidence!!

[@Francisca-y5c]

No doubt she's very good, I started with 5k and cashed out 40k after 1 weeks. I still wonder how she got her analysis.

[@witsend236]

As this happened before Labour came to power no doubt they will claim they did it in the coming months.

[@osamagbeigiehon2276]

The Bank of England controls interest rates, not the government. Also, the UK has never stopped borrowing, so no government can claim they did anything to reduce public debt. On the contrary, every government has intentionally increased public debt.