The Great Superflex Debate - ADP Chasing

[@PengsPicks]

This was a great stream, I had to dip mid way but came back to finish it. The battle of the minds

[@ShipChasing]

gotta finish it out

[@PengsPicks]

@@ShipChasing finished it, shared it, great stuff as always

[@nickyuen9923]

I’m with Pat on this. I just finished a 16-0 undefeated season this year in SF dynasty after picking 11th and fading QB in the startup. Ended up with Goff (rd 12) and Pickett (rd 5) as my starters. Had such an advantage at other positions that no one could keep up. Points are points, doesn’t matter what position they come from.

[@ShipChasing]

🤝

[@samsherman5807]

Makes sense! I’d just be careful about comparing SF dynasty (which I assume is full PPR? More starting WR / FLEX spots?) with this underdog format. Minor tweaks in structure make a huge impact on the math of what’s optimal. Congrats on the dynasty win tho, sounds like you crushed it 🤝

[@BenHaskellFF]

i feel im echoing the room here but i have to say everyone’s argument is sound and you’re all correct. this is why this show is so great, we need legitimate debate like this

[@white_lancer5339]

Re: Superflex, I wonder if some analysis has to be done about the possibility of a skill-position player filling the SF slot. I was competitive in one of the SF Puppy finals so I was monitoring it closely, and if that Buf-Cin game hadn’t been canceled, there was a decent chance the winner would have had only one QB in their starting lineup (helps that you only have two starting WR slots). Seems like that would devalue the “safe” QBs since there’s no guarantee they outscore your WR3 or RB3, especially if you’re spending up on the skill position players in the hopes of crushing there. Also, it’s just one contest, but the high-end finishers in that tourney mostly followed the 1 Elite QB + wait on second QB strat, including the winner ((Mahomes-Zach Wilson-Goff), 2nd place (Allen-Goff), my 4th-place team (Hurts-Watson-DJones) and 5th (Hurts-MJones-Darnold-Minshew). Guys like DJones and Goff and Geno really made waiting a bit on that 2nd QB more viable.

[@white_lancer5339]

That second paragraph is complicated by that game cancellation, since two of those elite QBs basically didn’t play that week (plus Hurts and Jackson and Murray were out). Hard to say if that would have benefitted one side or the other, though, since they could have either double-dipped at QB or gone for skill position players in rounds 2-3.

[@bobbystatsFF]

I palpably feel the tension in the first 30 min of this episode and I love it. What’s interesting about Sam vs Davis/Pat theories is that they are both kind of right, but it’s hard to see what strats were successful without the data from these superflex tourneys to see how the theories played out in practice.

[@samsherman5807]

Agree! It’s more fun when we don’t 100% see eye to eye. Leads to a good debate

[@paulino89]

I’d rather have the QB certainty than ending up with counting on the later QBs. But at most I’m drafting like 3 QBs.

[@This1sF1ne]

Another small problem with using BBM QB ADP to look at the current superflex tournament is that by the time BBM starts we have a lot more information on which QBs are starting. There's a lot more uncertainty in the lower ranked QBs right now than there was when this BBM ADP data was generated.

[@samsherman5807]

This is fair. Def a nuance in the data. I still think we’re quite good at identifying who the top 24 QBs are now, whoever. Who jumps into the top 24 by august that’s not in it now? Maybe like Levis and Tannehill? But who are they replacing I actually don’t think there will be crazy movement in the top 24. Moreso guys shifting around in the 25-40 range

[@This1sF1ne]

@@samsherman5807 Agreed, the uncertainty is mostly just the lower end guys. This year there are also a few cases like Lamar, Kyler and Rodgers who have higher ceilings and a lot of current uncertainty that could be resolved by the BBM timeframe.

[@TheMiddlePillarRitual]

The strength lies in the stache.

[@davem7173]

Sam is way too safe

[@samsherman5807]

It’s not safe! I’m playing for spike weeks. And early QB is where you get them

[@samsherman5807]

All the arguments you wanna make about “hey, you should take a WR/RB and then take a QB later to get more upside” you can more convincingly make the other way around. Way easier to get upside (spike weeks) at RB/WR later than it is at QB

[@robertneumann8818]

Sam gets off on min cashes

[@samsherman5807]

Lol

[@gregdickerson137]

It's all about the draft position. Early picks give you an advantage at QB. At the end of the draft you need to dominate at WR and RB and take the risk at QB. Risk/reward (luck) will determine who wins as it does all the time. Injuries and week 15-17 matchups will also play a big role which we have no knowledge of at this time.

[@beachhead7766]

60% of the time, it works every time

[@ShipChasing]

amen

[@tannerborud793]

This show is just pat and davis bullying Sam into agreeing with them

[@samsherman5807]

Lmao - for the record I don’t agree with them still. Feel very strongly I’m right about the QB stuff (though I agree that it’s not completely unviable to go 2 top 24 QBs, just don’t think it’s optimal imo)

[@DonnyShea]

Deuce McBride is on the Knicks

[@ShipChasing]

big if true

[@andrew7196]

Pat, how did Kenny Pickett hurt you?

[@legendaryupside]

gonna answer your joke like a serious questions lol. my bias against pickets developed bc i thought he was a very bad 1st round pick by the Steelers based on a low upside prospect profile. they're basically planning to get stuck as a borderline playoff team, which is a terrible spot to be in. Then during the season, he had a couple really nice setups where in the Walkthrough, I'd be like - ok... let's see what the kid's got... and then he'd be awful. Going 244/1/1 on 39 attempts against a horrendous Raiders pass defense was the most striking example. I actually have a decent amount so far this year bc you can stack him so easily and who knows, maybe he makes a leap in year 2. but outside of entering year 2, he's the epitome of a low upside bet.

[@neoncellgap2510]

I really appreciate the thoughtful takes but you guys interrupt each other all the time. Especially Davis. It gets hard to listen to after a while. No disrespect meant, hopefully just offering some constructive criticism.

[@ShipChasing]

you can't control davis, you can only hope to contain him

[@neoncellgap2510]

@@ShipChasing Haha fair enough!