The Limits of Russia's War Machine || Peter Zeihan

Recent events in the Ukrainian War have shed light on the state of Russia’s ability to resupply its war effort. Even elite Russian troops are being forced to rely on older, reserve equipment-including tanks built well over half a century ago. Moscow’s deep inventory of Cold War-era materiel has kept Russian troops in the fight, but not necessarily fighting: a recent attack by Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia eliminated most of a Russian airborne division fighting in tanks likely older than their fathers.
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[@someguy-somehow]

Former tanker here. Oryx had documented just under 3k destroyed tanks almost all of which are T72 or newer. Generously assume they have documented 75% of actual losses then Russia has lost 4k relatively modern tanks. Tanks stored in the open for 20 years or more are just metal husks that are barely worth repairing (rust and time are a nightmare). I doubt the Russians are fielding reserves in much logical order, they are simply pushing whatever they can get running to the front. I doubt they have more than 2 or 3k more that they can cobble together of any type. Maybe 2 years tops before they are all waking.

[@physetermacrocephalus2209]

Too bad all the ignorant and Politicians and* civillians do not understand this and are litteraly throwing the war.

[@andersbjrnsen7203]

In a theatre with drones seeing everything and drones dropping AT muntions from above I think I would prefer to walk anyway...

[@vitviper2]

Bingo! They're scraping the bottom of the barrel just so they can try to maintain any pressure they can on the front. Once they run out of the old rust buckets to throw at the front, we're likely going to see some interesting things.

[@mrcrowley109]

Former MBT (yes, NATO) TECHNICIAN here. Oryx lies constantly then walks back his information. Russians haven't lost anywhere near what western nonsense is reporting. I love Zeihan's overall geopolitical analysis, but he's been wrong over and over and over with this Uk/Ru conflict. The Russians are slowly moving forward virtually unopposed right now. The only person online making any damned sense is Col. MacGregor. Well, the guy that runs "history legends" is pretty good at impartial takes. Russian casualties are around 50k now, Ukraine KIA (not just casuality) is nearing 500k. All the west has done is destroyed Ukraine, for no reason. We've butchered our own economies, our own militaries, any sense of good faith we had anywhere in the world, destroyed our own cultures, and allowed a certain HEAVILY overrepresented demographic to influence us into near oblivion. AGAIN.

[@Quickshot0]

In some ways that's already almost to optimistic for them, Covertcabal has been buying up sat pics of their storage areas about once every 6 months. And those are now about half empty, though last count was awhile ago. Also in practise you can't always get good pics that are recent due to cloud cover, so even at the count dates some pics are months old. So based on that their stocks are already rather reduced as well and you'd give them at most 2 years at current expenditures of equipment. And as you say, you can wonder about the worst quarter of equipment. Though it's worth noting Russia has been scrapping some equipment over the years, and one would presume they scrapped the worst ones first. Admittedly they probably also sold the best to other places like India, so there is that as well. Still whatever the exact details, those stores are depleting at a pretty appreciable rate and will start giving problems maintaining the fronts current expenditures some time in the next year or two. And at that point it would be as you say, a lot more walking. Though I kind of figure that as their flow of new stuff gets tight they might finally see some sanity in not throwing away their equipment for minimal gains like that.... Maybe? Still if they do see such sanity, getting them completely on foot might be more difficult then. Though their offensive potential would obviously be mostly used up in such a case and Ukraine would presumably if reequipped enough get its next chance to try and break through.

[@FredrikHaugen]

They might have a couple of millions of men in their twenties, but not all are fit for fight, nor will accept such a fate. The actual numbers of the people they can realistically press into uniform is probably a lost smaller. Unless they start to force people from Moscow/St Petersburg a lot more, which opens up another can of worms.

[@RafaMazurekRMZ]

But they also dont force only 20s ppl, its common to push 30 and 40s years old there

[@hartyewh1]

Young people who weren't serving early on have good access to worldwide news sources and likely at the very least know that it's a pointless meant grinder that's waiting for them. I can't imagine much of anything that can be described as a soldier coming out anymore.

[@Samji3877]

what can of worms @FredrikHaugen?

[@hartyewh1]

@@Samji3877 Far more educated and worldly people a good part of whom oppose the war and Putin. Giving them guns is a risky thing which is why it's been avoided.

[@Bayard1503]

People that don't accept get 10 years in prison... in a Russian prison!! Yesterday I read a story about a guy from Crimea that refused to fight so they actually even accused him of treason. So yeah, it's not about accepting, there is no alternative to fighting...

[@sherrile]

I seem to remember seeing a report recently (DW World possibly) that Russia is recruiting young men from developing countries in Asia and Africa by offering money and Russian citizenship. In this report, they interviewed the family of a young man from Nepal who joined up, was put through a rather short training program, and then was sent to the front lines where he was killed. His family said that the Russian government wanted the equivalent of $1500 to ship his body back to his family.

[@UnCannyValley67]

😂

[@AlteredState1123]

Nice scam.

[@MoltenG-j4s]

In the UK they are called Ghurkas

[@isoldam]

@@MoltenG-j4s The UK still has Ghurka forces because of their long history with the British armed forces. The Ghurka have a great reputation in the UK, which they justly earned. The UK provides a good deal for service and cares about the lives of Ghurkas. Russia provides a crap deal for service and cares nothing for even their own soldier's lives. Any foreigner who signs up for Russia's armed forces is crazy. Not worth it.

[@marcob.7801]

Is that BS fake news or genuine fact????

[@richardbell7678]

The other thing about the older reserve tanks, like the T-62 and T-54/55 is that there is less equipment on them that is worth stealing, so they are more complete than the more modern tanks that do have stuff worth stealing.

[@danreed7889]

What does one steal off a modem tank?

[@eduwino151]

@@danreed7889 modern in russia means tanks built in the 80s there were entire fleets of T72s with their engines and optics stolen and sold by corrupt generals to the black market

[@Earaldur]

​@@danreed7889a wide variety of components can be sold as scrap metal - think copper wiring, aluminium etc. There is also a black market for things like the explosives in the reactive armour, as well as expensive components like the gun sights, night vision optics and radios.

[@danreed7889]

@@Earaldur Do have any proof of that? Do you know how physically large tank sights are? They are not easily removed components. I call BS.

[@traumajock]

I betting that the T-72s in reserve got robbed for parts to repair tanks in active service even before the war got started.

[@awlex]

It's questionable whether Russia had 10,000 tanks in reserve when the war started. And storages are half-empty now as seen from satellite images.

[@rogerwilco2]

Most recent publicly available images show their reserve/mothball storages to be even more depleted, mose have lost 70-90% of their pre-war stocks. The appearance of the T-54/55 also is a sign as we didn’t see those for the first two years of the war. They are likely running low on all of their more modern tanks if their elite units are now even getting the oldest, least capable models.

[@douglassun8456]

I agree that Peter is giving the Russians too much credit here. Perun pointed out over a year ago that a good number of them were bound to be suitable only for parts or just completely useless. They've been tapping that reserve for a while now, so you can count on a lot of those T-55s and T-72s being brewed up. The number left that can be pressed back into service is not close to 10k.

[@dennythedavinchi3832]

You are right, most of soviet equipments were dumped more than half of the assets. So some of military channel verified visible tanks through Google Maps and estimated Russia could have had little more than 6000 reserves.

[@frankrenda2519]

24000 tanks get your facts correct

[@Quickshot0]

@@frankrenda2519That's outdated info, over the years Russia sold or scrapped many of those. Before the war started their official total number of tanks by their own figures was under 10k, I think it was something like 7k-8k, somewhere around there.

[@davidshapiro5616]

Personally I don't think there's many 20 somethings that have had a formal education left in Russia. They're all here in Cyprus working in the IT industry.

[@cfc1001001cfc]

I never would have guessed a year ago that the one person who was going to do the most to slow down the Russiadämmerung was going to be the American Speaker of the House.

[@lettucesalad3560]

The former President has been working for Putin since 2015.

[@bosatsu76]

the gop pounded their chests about russia for 70 years... Till trump showed up. Then they went completely silent.

[@j.dunlop8295]

Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working?

[@GoodMrFe]

It's a pretty good wake up call to all of EU. Just like covid showed how disorganized everything is during a pandemic, MJ is now showing what it means to rely on US military aid. These things just come at terrible cost and my heart breaks every time I see a terrorist attack by Russia where normal oridanary folk get the worst of it. It is so awful it cannot be put into words. I really hope UA prevails and this will be viewed as overall positive in history books, as an event that tightens all of EUs security, but I can't see it that way right now. The losses are just terrible. And I can't imagine the people who live in UA will ever forgive this or forget this. It's saddening we still have to struggle with people like Putin in our society today.

[@j.dunlop8295]

Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working? 💙🇺🇦🩵🇹🇼

[@kadourimdou43]

Does this time scale assume that Ukraine can’t slow down their supplies. What if the hits on the Russian economy can shorten the time scale, that Russians can continue.

[@yt.damian]

Shortening by 1 or 2 or even by 4 years probably wont be enough. All the issues that Russia is having - the Ukrainians are having similar level issues.

[@teekay_1]

@@yt.damian Ukraine is running out of people.

[@borisbadenov8613]

If Ukraine can step up the hits on critical infrastructure, on active military bases in Russia and on weapon stockpiles they stand a good chance of winning or, at the least, forcing a stalemate on the Russians. Of course, the equation would change drastically if Russia's client states decided to rebel.

[@powershift2024]

Sounds like he's advocating for continued Western funding until they're beating each other with sticks and rocks. Thanks Pete, always get a little Military Industrial Complex slant in there...

[@manmonkee]

@@teekay_1 Thats very true but the nature of the conflict is different for them, The war is one of survival foisted upon them, they have no choice but to fight. Ukraine cannot end the war, Russia can end it tomorrow.

[@UnnamedBridgeburner]

Keep in mind the 6.5M men aren’t just for the military, they’re also the workers needed to keep the industrial base going. So it’s more like another 2-3M soldiers at a stretch.

[@craigjones3295]

Hopefully, Ukrainians can hold on till supplies arrive. What a mess!!

[@big1boston]

Craig Benjamin Jones is an Australian grappler and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt competitor and coach. it is simple to see why you lack an education. @craigjones3295 Please Report to your local ADL office for gender Affirmation care.

[@solaireastora5394]

​@@HerpetileI do and the initial commenter does

[@joshjames2611]

​@@Herpetile 122 people who liked the above comment

[@Herpetile]

@@joshjames2611 gang gang

[@blasternine8814]

@@Herpetile NATO

[@Mr72Dolphins]

Russia should consider the horse as a "new" wonder weapon

[@janhgh3400]

Horses come pre-equiped with 2 bio-technological optical sensors! No need for retro-fitting digital thingamabobs! Unfortunately they identify EVERYTHING as dangerous...

[@ScubesFTW]

They can bite AND kick

[@sandrothenecromancer6810]

The golden horde returning to its roots.

[@j.dunlop8295]

Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working?

[@jwarmstrong]

The horse is a walking meat locker so no need for food supplies to be shipped to the front

[@fredhapgood7885]

I don't understand how the Russians think they can hold on to the country even if they win. What have the last fifty years taught us about the powers of counter-insurgency??

[@seandelaney1700]

My prediction day one of the war (when every expert including PZ said Ukraine did not stand a chance) was that if they having Western supplies Russia cannot ever control Ukraine, due to their willingness to fight.

[@PatrickKQ4HBD]

Russia doesn't want or care about Ukraine. They want the mountain ranges beyond and Ukraine is an obstacle in their way.

[@sashap5747]

The east of the country is heavily pro Russian. My family is. All neighbours are. It won't be a problem to hold on to it. The west of Ukraine is simply not in Russian plans as a part of Russia.

[@russvet]

There will be no country 😂

[@sashap5747]

The thing is - Russians plan to hold only to the territories with heavily pro Russian population. They will leave other territories as soon as they get nuetrality guarantees

[@VonKirda]

Wondering when the Kaspian areas will start to make trouble.

[@greendsnow]

After Manchuria events.

[@jeanlamb5026]

That's why so many men are drafted from there so they won't have any ability to revolt.

[@jfrankcarr]

The tank situation sounds like the difference between repairing a simple 50's Chevy V8 versus fixing a 2010's vehicle with oodles of electronic this and computerized that.

[@j.dunlop8295]

Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working?

[@michaeldavis3819]

True, but a simple Chevy V8 has a massive aftermarket to support its overhaul due to decades of hobbyists creating a demand for parts (and even then, the last couple of years we've seen crappy solid and hydraulic cams and lifters hitting the market and immediately self-destructing due to market shifts towards roller cams). Machinists are familiar with the 350; harnesses and brake parts and seat covers and carburetors and transmission adapters and fenders and fuel injection retrofit kits are all available online; there's been 70 years or more of experimentation and upgrades for it at virtually all levels of the industry. Nothing like that is true for the T-55. A better analogy would be like trying to bring a city bus back from the scrapyard and put it back into service in a hurry, or worse yet, a ship that's been in mothballs for 70 years.

[@rotm4447]

the only t-55s they've been using are as ied drones. Zeihan is exaggerating here.

[@es330td]

@@michaeldavis3819 Even if your analogy is accurate, it can still be done. If a vehicle requires a computer based part to run such as a fuel injection controller and you don't have it you are at a hard stop. If it's mechanical there is at least a path forward.

[@a.brekkan4965]

Soon the Russians will only have shovels left!

[@aajas]

"Say if you had a newer tank, say a T-72..." 😂

[@rapier1954]

Say if you actually listened to the video instead of making irrelevant comments.

[@xisotopex]

the T-72B3M is for all intents and purposes a fairly modern tank

[@willl7780]

@Shinshocks555 it smoked an abrams

[@willl7780]

@Shinshocks555 one side is moving forward and 1 is not

[@LilMissMurder3409]

@@willl7780 What's your point? The Abrams isn't invulnerable.

[@chipsatterly4902]

Putin's problem...."You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality." Peter always shows how "little" details end up being being a really big deal!!

[@Skyblade12]

Peter thinks you can analyze a war by only looking at one side. His unwillingness to provide a similar breakdown of Ukrainian forces and losses does not inspire confidence.

[@Hentai-Semite]

Your problem - youstill fall for the same lies after 2 years. Such a lack of IQ is so american.

[@Tracker5111]

@@vrado441 No, most western countries are not supporting the war to their fullest capability. If the NATO armies marched into Russia... it'd be game over for Russia

[@christopherlee7334]

​@@vrado441Ah, yes, the "Nazi" west, when your own Wagner group is full of proud and open Nazis. How is it out there on the front lines? Come on, are you scared to serve the "mighty" Russian army?

[@aarondonald1611]

@@vrado441 Kicking their ass in a war that was supposed to be less than 48 hours? Lol ok pal

[@skeewiffenator]

So this is the super light version of this conversation. For more detail see perun. As the Russian stock runs dry you will probably see both increasingly ancient and modern hulks side by side as the reserves dry up was the prediction and it looks like we’re there

[@dustinyoung3069]

I'd love to see Perun do an "executive summary" version of his videos. Gimmie something 15-20 min. I lack the time and attention span to watch a power point presentation for an hour. Great content, but a smaller meal, please...

[@mitanni0]

Agreed. If u want depth, consult sources like Perun!

[@HaxxorElite]

​@@dustinyoung3069theyre well worth watching

[@advancetotabletop5328]

Russia’s already raided the museum weeks (months?) ago for ancient tanks, so…

[@jord019]

Why is no one considering that russia are building multiple new tanks per week?

[@wwzulu]

Hi, Peter. Just wanted to say how much I appreciate that in 5 minutes you manage to say so much that is valuable and summaries all there is to know. Good job and take care

[@lachlanbell8390]

Imagine believing that Zeihan is telling you "all there is to know".... let alone that he's doing it in 5 minutes. This kind of naive, gullible malleability is why the West is able to do what it does. A soft population of easily-manipulated lemmings.

[@christophermurphy4511]

@@lachlanbell8390 Zulu never said that Zeihan said "all there is to know". They said he summarized well. In case you don't know, there is a big difference. But let's compare Western media with state controlled Russian media. What do you thing about that comparison?

[@lachlanbell8390]

@@christophermurphy4511 Are... are you... are you... serious? Those words were literally verbatim from their comment: _"I appreciate that in 5 minutes you manage to say so much that is valuable and _*_summaries[sic] all there is to know"_* As for your intended "gotcha" - when was the last time _you_ watched any Russian media? Can you put a date on it? Have you _ever_ watched _any_ Russian media?

[@christophermurphy4511]

@@lachlanbell8390 I'll be, you are correct Lachlan.

[@RobinSmith20]

Russia has eased the laws on child labour so teenagers as young as 14 can be recruited by industry. Given that Russia has moved to a war-time economy, there will be 16-18 year olds working in munitions plants around dangerous materials…what could possibly go wrong ?

[@yevhenhoncharenko7862]

The 16-17 years old olready working at producing drones in russia - you can look some videos about it, they are proud of it

[@Kerorhavbc777]

6% is not war economy. Soviet and USA used 80% in ww2. Another lol comment

[@Randomuser-ei7is]

@@Kerorhavbc777 Ukraine is far from being total war.... 6% is not at all war economy, these people should honestly do some research.

[@RobinSmith20]

@@Kerorhavbc777 Russia’s public spending is at unprecedented levels, and around 40% of the government budget is spent on the war. Total military spending is expected to reach more than 10% of GDP for the year 2023. This comes at the expense of spending on health and social welfare. Military pay, ammunition, tanks, planes, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers, all contribute to the GDP figures. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main driver of Russia’s economic growth. And it is a war that Russia cannot afford to win. The cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China.

[@bojanstojicevic2642]

Do'Not WoRRy. B HaPPy. RuSSiaNs R COMING...NATIVE AMERICAN KARMA CALLS. Uncle Sam is dead...new KIDs R CURENT value. Shame on U RobinHood.

[@jasonangle7776]

... and there's no lend lease to save them.

[@calc1657]

The Chinese, North Koreans, and Iranians have been helping out.

[@scottlanghorst1483]

It's funny, Russia never mentions that is what helped them win WW2. 🇺🇲❤🇺🇦

[@dingus6317]

@@calc1657Dint forget India

[@Kerorhavbc777]

lend lease didnt help Russia win. They had much more equipment left than lend lease after end of the war.

[@Randomuser-ei7is]

Lend lease only made up 8% of USSR's war effort and USSR repaid Lend lease.

[@SusanMelson-kk6ll]

If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you...prevent inflation

[@CHELSJAMES]

Hallelujah!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🙌 I was owning a loan of $47,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery (David), Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $12,000 and got my payout of m $200,500 every months, God bless Jason Graystone fx

[@camerontita7661]

Hello how do you make such monthly ?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God

[@roselineonyeka6023]

I'm admittedly bummed that I didn't go with my gut instinct & buy bitcoin few months back when it was $20k - $25k range. is it too late to get in and make profits? i have set aside $450k to get fully invested this year

[@MarvelousOnyeubi]

Wow that's nice he makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach is services, I'm work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help

[@MarvelousOnyeubi]

​@@CHELSJAMEScongratulations

[@teekay_1]

If Peter's analysis is taken at face value, doesn't that essentially discredit the whole notion that Russia has designs on all of Europe?

[@jlpowell51]

It's a laughable notion to begin with, trotted out by politicians trying to compel people with fear instead of with logic.

[@hootowl6354]

I've heard not one person say they have designs on all of Europe. Where do you guys get this nonsense? Ukraine, Moldova, Uzbekistan, the Baltics, part of Poland, maybe Romania, yes. They already have Belarus and part of Georgia. The more they take, the stronger they will become, and the stronger they become, the more they will twist your arm and mine. Russia is one nation who we want to be weak, out of necessity.

[@caliph20]

​@hootowl6354 there's no evidence besides fear mongering of any threat to NATO

[@richarddean3154]

@@hootowl6354 Man, that is all I have been hearing from people who support sending money and arms to Ukraine - "if we don't stop Russia in Ukraine, they will invade some other country next" OR "democracy is at stake if we don't stop Russia in Ukraine". They tell everyone that Russia is an existential threat to Europe - that means Europe would cease to exist.

[@istvanglock7445]

@@richarddean3154 Did you read what hootowl said? He listed those countries (some of them) that Russia wants to 'reclaim' as part of its former Empire. So yes, Russia will continue beyond Ukraine, with Moldova almost certainly next. And a bigger Russia, with a bigger population under its control, will be a threat to the rest of Europe and the free world - perhaps not militarily, but certainly in other ways. Perhaps you're not old enough to remember the Cold War, and all the disruptive antics that the USSR got up to.

[@dukenukem8381]

Pieter by lack of "optics" on T-55 you meant FCS(fire control system) , generally you are correct thoug.

[@BatkoNashBandera774]

how come you didn't bring bubblegum?

[@FarTooFar]

​@@vrado441hello boris. How's life in nazi ruZzia?

[@dukenukem8381]

@@vrado441 Russia is heavily aided by Iran North Korea and China with India footing the bill paying for oil. Western chips worth Billions are being smuggled by Central Asian countries for Russia. Ukraine is AIDED by less than 0,50% GDP of each of 54 countries helping Ukraine. Ukraine is a much smaller country with less resources and people. And with this minuscule help which is often late and less than promised Ukraine holds the line against Russia Iran NK and western chips. Which all things considered is pretty tough and brave.

[@johnparnell9488]

@@vrado441 Russia stronk!

[@antoncarmoducchi6057]

@@vrado441 kicking their arse where exactly? Putins dreams?

[@williamwells1862]

No way Jose. When half of the oil refineries are wasted, the war is over in months.

[@TheExpressionless1]

Mr Zeihan please talk more about what the Philippines is doing and the implications of the trilateral summit with japan and the US

[@j.dunlop8295]

Putin's this week asked Uzbekistan for 500,000 tons of petrol (gasoline) that's 400 mil. gal.s! Apparently Ukrainians refinery sanctions (✈️💥) are working? 💙🇺🇦

[@jeffrice3044]

@@vrado441 If you are the best the Russian bot farms can come up with, it's a sad indictment to be sure. Keep sending China your gold for black market chips, uniforms, and ATV's. You have less than a decade to fade away into the annals of history.

[@davidogan]

Allow me. The Philippines seem to revert back to be a US colony after successfully kicking out the US military at Clark Airbase 2 decades ago. So I guess, the CIA infiltrated your elections made sure that you got a new President who is the son of the most corrupt Philippines President ever, Ferdinand Marcos. Remember when the late F. Marcos fled the Philippines with all the country’s money to Hawaii in the late 80s, they didn’t do anything to help you get your money back. There was a time in the 70’s when the Philippines was 2nd only to Japan in Asia and the Peso was 3-1 to the US dollar. After that the Philippines had collapsed from being a top country into nearly a failed state until today. So the summit with Japan and the US is just to affirm that both the Philippines and Japan (both loyal US lapdogs) remain obedient to the US and are both are ready to become the next Ukraine when the US stirs up war in the South China Sea.

[@atklm1]

@@vrado441 He's kicking his own behind. He's fighting only Ukraine. Sure, with some mostly cold war weapons and ammo from west. North Korea has sent much more shells to Russia, and Iran has sent huge amounts of brand new drones, which have had major impact. China is keeping economical lifeline tethered to fund Russian war. Package that is being sent to Ukraine in the first wave as a whole, most of it already waiting in Poland, is actually huge. In terms of firepower, amounts, and a new level of technological sophistication. It packs a wallop. In one to four weeks, Russians are going to have a bad weather on the front line, it's going to rain fire and steel in a storm of a whole new level. Especially when the F-16's (and later Gripens) come to clean the skies along with European 1,5 million artillery shells. It's gonna be a hard knock life soon for Russian soldiers, and Russian losses in both men and material will grow by the order of magnitude when this party gets started. Not long now.

[@pierrerochon7271]

@@vrado441 Russian troll - go home

[@hertsish]

The Russians may be able to sustain a supply of troops for 5-8 years, but every man sent to the war is another out of the workforce. Russia is already suffering from a lack of labor, and the industrial war machine is compounding the problem. This means that the industries that make a profit and pay taxes are suffering labor shortages because of industries that rely entirely on government revenue to exist. How long can the Russian economy sustain this?

[@Bill-xx2yh]

Thank you Peter, seems I’m always looking for your updates.

[@edwinsiala3373]

​@@vrado441well said. Pater is high on meth and his viewers are clearly delusional.

[@BillWoodillustrator]

Why? 😂

[@joek6791]

@@vrado441 LOL I do agree that Peter does have a great imagination but you need to go back to rubbing Putin's feet.

[@priyanthaliyanaarachchi394]

Living in the dream 😁

[@rogerwilco2]

The Russians have actually lost much more than 2000 tanks. Visially confirmed losses sit at 2920 according to Oryx. They also not started with their oldest T-54/55 stock. Those have not been seen in the war until a couple of months ago. Their losses for the first two years have all been more modern tanks. Estimates of how much of those “12.000” tanks can actually be made to work after decades in storage vary wildly but none are above 2/3rds. There is certainly a large number of undocumented losses as well and the Russians need to keep some materiel on their very long borders with other countries. They had about 2000 active tanks at the start, and at most another 6000 or so they can refurbish. They have lost 3000-4000 of those and at least need to keep 500+ on their other borders with NATO, China and the Caucasus. They have at best about 2500 left, active and reserves combined. This is also clear from sattelite images of their bases, most have beem emptied by 70-90% of their pre-war stocks. If they are using T-54/55 as frontline tanks, they are running out of most of their more modern systems. Don’t take my word for it, look up Perun and Covert Cabal who do great work on the publicly available data.

[@Kerorhavbc777]

They confuse ukranian and russian material.

[@jkmarshall3553]

@@Kerorhavbc777 Who is really confused though?

[@rosomak8244]

@@Kerorhavbc777 Intentionally. Or showing the same tank over and over again.

[@x7zy-xx]

Ridicoulous that ukraine have "destroyed" that many tanks, seems completly unrealistic. They have not. And just because a tank is damaged is not the same as it is burned out and destroyed. In a war between Egypt and Israel an israeli tank took something like 16 hits, It still kept running after the changed the driver. And russian can repair its tanks.

[@jkmarshall3553]

@@x7zy-xx you sound angry.

[@docken11]

Peter you definitely need to adjust your numbers; based on good OSINT from people like Covert Cabal Russia is looking like running out of tanks in about 2 years at best. They are really pretty much doomed now no matter the outcome of the war.

[@TheBKnight3]

Covert Cabal did that assessment about a year ago...

[@timmommens901]

Hear hear

[@calc1657]

12000 tanks is a pretty solid base

[@docken11]

@@TheBKnight3 I didn't see that previous one (though I know the latest one he did was about a week or two ago). His satellite analysis is fairly compelling if you haven't seen the latest one.

[@matthewbrook7683]

Yes just yesterday they had a Ural truck with cages welded on it driving into an assault. You dont do that if your not really running out of APCs or tanks. Although one cant help but wonder were the cages to keep the drones out or the poor soldiers doomed to die, inside the cage?

[@gonebabygone4116]

Peter - in a recent assault instead of proper BMP/BTR armored personnel carriers they used soft sided Kamaz trucks instead. This wasn't a single lost truck, it was a formation with something like a dozen vehicles total. T-55 tanks with elite units is another similar bit of news. The end may be nearer than we've imagined.

[@seandelaney1700]

The image of using large trucks with overhead "cope cages" seems to be pretty hard data to at least how one regiment is in lack of vehicles. There are also many images of 20+ soldiers jumping down from tanks and assault vehicles after hitting minds etc. Also many of the new Chinese "golf carts" which are being attacked, although I assume these are not being used in assaults it still points to mobility issues.

[@billisaacs702]

I dunno Peter. It sounds kinda squirrelly to me. 76th Guards Air Rifle was out of Pskov and was an airborne outit. They didn't use tanks. If memory serves and it does, they had IFVs at most as their TO and E. So whoever is driving these tanks is not 76th. Make a personal rule never to record before coffee. 😄

[@kjj26k]

Whatever Russian units were before the war, even one year ago, has all been completely changed. Yes, airborne units have become infantry assault units. As have marines, national guard, and even Spetznaz.

[@AlfaGiuliaQV]

@@kjj26k The only ones not participting are the kadyrovites, the precious tiktok army.?

[@kleinweichkleinweich]

the VDV from Pskov (Pleskau), the murderers of Butcha if memory serves (and it does!)

[@billisaacs702]

@@kjj26k ...and therefore are not the "elite" troops as designated in this video. Like I said. Squirrelly. Therefore I don't necessarily buy that their "elite" units are driving castoffs. That doesn't make sense on any level even for Russians.

[@Cheechiob]

This whole video is BS.

[@georgephilipp9410]

Interesting numbers and conlcusions. Totally opposite to what I am usually listening to 😁 Time will tell... Good luck to each one of us 🙏

[@duncan8437]

Please look up videos with satellite imagery. When 70% of the tank depots are empty, it hints to supply issues

[@3ndt1m3s]

I really appreciate all your thoughtfull and insightful analysis on this situation. You are a scholar and a real gentleman sir! Thank you very much and keep up all the good works!

[@healthymealthy775]

I like Peter but he hasn't reviewed the Spring Offensive from last year.

[@davidsmith3rd]

Why would he review a disaster that contradicts everything else he says ??

[@TzunSu]

"The T-55 does not have any optics, it pre-dates optics" What? The T-55 has several optics, the primary being the TSh2B-32P. Not very *good* optics, and no night vision or thermal obv, but they do have optics.

[@GTfour01]

But, but, Peter knows best! I mean, he uses the undisputable data of the Dutch Russia-haters oryx and, even better, the latest and very thrustworthy data of the Ukrainian military!

[@TzunSu]

@@GTfour01 Shocking to see you being a Russia support, when you've got Hitler speeches on your channel. GTFO troll.

[@jacoblester8477]

I don't think they got 8 years. There's a LOT of TB in those twenty years olds and loosing a 1/5 of your tank reserve causing u to pull antiques out is kind of a bad sign. If they are going to win it has to be in the next year.

[@sadjaxx]

Why TB?

[@theauthor3259]

1. You are talking as if the ruski factories are not producing new tanks at all 2. If u say ruski young men drop from 8 to 6 million, what about ukr young men population - a much smaller country I dont see ur logic at all..

[@nicholascarter9158]

1. The number of completely new tanks that Russia produces from scratch every year is pretty low: Since they announced the T-14 will never be used in Ukraine, the new tanks they produce are the T-90's. In the 32 years Russia has been making T-90's, they've only made about 4,000 of them, which suggests they can maybe make 300 T-90s a year. 2. There's two possible ways to read this piece of information. One of them is, and it's getting insanely frustrating to have to repeat this weak after weak *PETER BELIEVES THAT RUSSIA WILL WIN THE WAR IN UKRAINE* His doomposting about Russia comes from his stated belief that *after* the war in Ukraine comes an economic disaster similar to the USSR collapse combined with getting into a no shit shooting war directly with the United States, so even if Russia does win, Ukraine ends up re-liberated in 2035 when Russia balkanizes. This is just Peter reminding everybody that Russia won't run out of men at this rate.

[@fleshreap]

Just such a shame the support for Ukraine has weaned off to such a drastic degree. They could be doing fine with support, but are instead slowly losing because lack of it.

[@Aerrow62]

They got cocky and entitled. They started demanding supplies as if someone owed them unlimited ammo. That's where things fell apart.

[@dranderson6071]

Think about your own words. Do you seriously believe the USA is involved to help Ukraine? Lol. They’re buying up all Ukraine farmland and thus resources also. The Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries ever. Good luck lol

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

No Ukraine is running low on manpower not just support, money and weapons. Vote them another hundred billion it will just delay the Russians, it won't change the result.

[@dranderson6071]

Lol

[@sercravenmohead3631]

@@Aerrow62 No, it’s politics because people want to poke and prod at literally a drop in the bucket in terms of spending that went to Ukraine. Zelensky is doing the right thing, his country is being invaded and he needs weapons to fight it. While yes the U.S. for example should secure its border it can easily walk and chew gum at the same time, Russia is fighting against less than 1% of NATO’s overall GDP. We aren’t even in a wartime economy, so yeah Russia produces more shells ect but that’s because their economy accommodates it by shifting priority, Germany alone is double the GDP of Russia, if they expanded it’s military spending in capacity they could alone in theory out do the Russians. It’s just politics holding back the aid and honestly poor internal policies that make Ukraine not a priority for NATO citizens.

[@Elrobbo1968]

I get short of breath just listening to you. You have a cold? But you are awesome. Love from the Netherlands.

[@IliyaOsnovikov]

Peter certainly has a talent to make up the feel good stories.

[@pierrerochon7271]

troll

[@IliyaOsnovikov]

@@pierrerochon7271 Nice to meet you.

[@Jay-vt1mw]

Massively disagree with Peter on the “5-8 years” if we’re talking man power sure but for vehicles and aircraft it could easily be 2025 where they start to run empty.

[@calc1657]

The Russians have been ramping up manufacturing as they convert to a wartime economy.

[@jehandesains8674]

@@calc1657 doesn't matter. Even with Russia ramping up production, the amount of NEW equipment produced every YEAR is about what Russia loses every MONTH. They're staying in the fight right now because of refurbishing their old reserves, but these are starting to run low. Back in October 2023, Russia had about 3500 serviceable tanks left in storage, and they've lost like 2400-ish in the last 6 months on the battlefield. When those stockpiles are empty, Russian output will massively reduce, and we'll start seeing fewer and fewer tanks, armoured vehicles, and artillery.

[@mysterioanonymous3206]

​​@@jehandesains8674there's also over 60 f-16 coming to fight... If air defense starts arriving around the same time, EU is looking to provide more patriots, Russia will be in for a hard time. They'll take out all their arty first and it's all downhill for the Russians from there...

[@calc1657]

@@jehandesains8674 Depends how effectively they ramp up production

[@jehandesains8674]

@@calc1657 Russia doesn't have the capabilities to seriously ramp up. Such a thing takes many years and high end equipment, which Russia does not have. Europe could, theoretically, ramp up to become by far the biggest military in the world, surpassing the US. Russia...not so much.

[@goldmanstats7140]

Every bar has a guy like this sitting at the end of it with a pint ready to pontificate about anything.

[@stuie999]

Its only clever knowing all this information if the information is accurate, and yours is at the very least questionable..

[@jaymenza5196]

Somehow shovels keep advancing

[@peterflohr7827]

If you ignore the insane cost like there's no tomorrow, you might think it's all going fine.

[@sercravenmohead3631]

It’s inefficient gains

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

Do you watch the videos? The shovel joke falls flat when the advacing troops put the muzzle on their own head or shove a live grenade into their vest. Turns out people can get gibbed like in Quake multiplayer in real life.

[@kjj26k]

Somehow, Ukraine still isn't conquered.

[@albertmaziarz6739]

ratio 4 to1 with evry1000 steps 1 inch

[@13BadassMetal]

This begs the question how can they continue to occupy what they currently have?

[@TheDa6781]

This guy is the definition of wishful thinking

[@ScubesFTW]

Yeah, the ukranians also cant hold on forever

[@TheDa6781]

@@ScubesFTW Ukrainians at this point can only provide bodies for the army, but everything else depends on Nato. Almost 70% of their budget comes from the US and the EU. Also the weaponry, munition etc.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

@@TheDa6781 The bodies for the army aren't willing bodies.

[@TheDa6781]

@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 indeed, they ran out of volunteers many moons ago

[@Skyblade12]

@@TheDa6781 And how many bodies can Ukraine still provide? Peter talks about Russia running out of bodies, but apparently Ukraine just has a cloning facility or something?

[@raymondo737]

The 5-8 years estimation is a best case for Russia. - More of their population will flee. - Their industrial base is dwindling. - Their exports and cash reserves are heading down as well. - Their best equipment, army personnel and ammunition stocks were already exhausted. They do not have a significant ally to help, except China ... and China does not seem particularly eager to help. - If the tide of the war turns, there won't be much popular support left at home. Even as an autocracy, Russia will be forced to seek a way out. I would put my armchair, layman estimation to 2-5 years.

[@usofliberty]

ok, but Ukraine has about 6 months left in them so it's really not so critical eh?

[@raymondo737]

@@usofliberty Ukraine is on "Western" life-support since the early stages of the war. The "West" can sustain this rate of support for decades. The question is ... Can Ukraine keep pumping the required amount of manpower into the problem. I believe they can, but this is an armchair statement. What makes you think they'll collapse in the next 6 months?

[@seanp9277]

@@raymondo737 No it is the West that cannot sustain this. The West has run out of weapons and ammunition and are scraping the barrel.

[@martins3885]

​@@raymondo737You are asking the wrong questions. 1) Can they get enough AA systems to defend their energy grid and increase the production of energy like they did last year. 2) Can they modernize the army fast enough and integrate more A.I solutions and robots in the army. 3) Can they finally mobilize the whole country behind the cause because so far they have not been able to and Zelensky has mentioned it a few times already in past speeches. And these same problems are also russian problems but at much larger. scale.

[@michajastrzebski4383]

@@raymondo737 the issue isnt if Ukraine will collapse, they will not. The issue is, in what form will they be able to continue fighting, and how much price they will pay - because if it comes down to fighting a guerilla style warfare - and mind you, Ukrainians WILL do it, western support or not, lets be real they are not going to give up their independence - then both their nation, and the west both will be way worse off in the end.

[@PaulFerrell-jp2cu]

I remember the Russians were using a “maxim” machine gun from WW1. One way to replace old is to put it on the front.

[@WangMingGe]

Ukrainians use them too, extensively. They are popular on the backs of pickup trucks, two or three together, for air defence against drones. Think about it. A shahed drone moves at almost exactly the speed of a WW1 sopwith camel biplane and is fairly fragile. Maxim machine guns worked great (the main armament of planes in those days) for shooting down such. The ammo is cheap. They are also water-cooled so they can hose a target steadily, whereas modern, air cooled machine guns are lighter and more portable, but also overheat quickly and aren't so good for sustained fire.

[@RZakelis]

Zeihan haven't seen Russian soldiers.Most of them are in their forties or even fifties, not twenties.

[@genepozniak]

The younger ones are drafted from the eastern republics.

[@Kerorhavbc777]

There is no war draft for the war. Youbguys are fompletly out of reality is like look at a comedy show.

[@GolemRising]

@@Kerorhavbc777 Bro we can see people being served their draft papers when they post them on social media. Drink less, your brain damage is already severe.

[@user-uf2df6zf5w]

​@@GolemRising Yes, but the mobilization affects everyone between 18 and 60. One can also easily dodge it, if smart enough.

[@FazeParticles]

Zeihan is lying again. most of the Russian soldiers in ukraine are older looking. there's some young guys but always there's old guys around. TBH that's good. more experience and better suited for a slow war. this war is not going to be a blitz for the capital.

[@PS-xy3wv]

Pete, most military guys will tell you it’s not the modernization of weaponry, it’s the training of the crews, how modern is the leopard , and the abrams?

[@ChristopherFodor]

Where does 600k kia or wounded even come from. That's over double what they were saying a few months ago

[@jesan733]

Ukrainian count of Russian casualties is 450k, but they've probably not been able to see 30% (some of which is Russians wounding and killing each other). And then it's 600k.

[@estellebarry9357]

Tanks don't win/ lose wars - yes this is a land war -but it doesn't come down to tanks only its more complex - Standing with Ukraine from the UK X

[@ElizabethPearceCFA]

I had heard that many of the “recruits “for the Russian Army a year ago were from the Siberian utility company - line repairmen, for example. Do we have any sense of the impact of the winter on Eastern Russia? Is that a factor in your numbers?

[@zarkhezdimaag2704]

Average age of Ukrainian soldier is 43 🙄

[@peterflohr7827]

Yes, because Ukraine is sparing it's young men (

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

Ukraine specifically did not mobilize 27 and under. Ever heard of the Fukushima disaster? The older men volunteered to clean up because they knew that it would take decades for cancer to appeal, so they'd be less affected than the young. Obviously the Russian would never understand empathy.

[@rudysmith1552]

​@@peterflohr7827they will gladly immigrate to the Netherlands the moment that they can leave Ukraine does not have a future it is merely a sword NATO can use to inflict a wound into Russia and it is not doing it adequately they will not be a Ukrainian democracy capable of making its own decisions add best the EU will get a second much larger hungry

[@seanp9277]

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD Look up the Ukrainian population pyramid. The 18-27 age category is the smallest available. That's why they haven't activated it.

[@rayoflight62]

Hello Mr. Zehian, Your analysis - where you stick numbers to facts - is very high value, and as precious as essential. Have a great Sunday! Greetings from the UK, Anthony

[@michellegutierrez2119]

Thank you for sharing this video Peter Zehain ..

[@festekj]

As an accountant, I could say that Russia used FIFO. This means first in first out.

[@billberg1264]

We computer scientists use the term too. What context do accountants apply it in? I thought money was fungible, so you didn't need to track which individual dollar was being spent.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

​@@billberg1264 if the accountant is matching dollars to goods they are aware of inventory.

[@heyho4770]

​@@billberg1264AFAIK Its being used to determine the value of your goods in storage. Because the price of those does fluctuate.

[@festekj]

@@billberg1264 The FIFO method assumes that the oldest unit of inventory is sold or used in production first. The LIFO method assumes that the newest stock or last unit to arrive in inventory is sold or used in production first. The FIFO method is allowed by both US GAAP and IFRS. Keep in mind, LIFO is rarely used

[@apc9714]

​@billberg1264 In accounting is applied to the Inventory. If the cost of goods varies (ex. Increases rapidly), a FIFO method means that the good sold is the first that arrived (therefore in this case) the cheapest, while a LIFO (last in first out method) means it's the newest and most expensive one

[@pippieskent9150]

That face at the end when he realises the tragety of what he's saying.

[@LilMissMurder3409]

It's important to note that the T-55 has a 100mm main gun and the T-62 a 115mm gun. This complicates Russia's logistics - which were hardly stellar to begin with - even further. Also, while I imagine Russia has enormous stockpiles of ammunition for those two calibers, I also imagine that a lot of it will end up being duds due to their age - making obsolete equipment even less effective.

[@jamesks16]

the t55s from what ive seen are only being used for indirect fire support aka artillery duty. so doesnt matter how fast or how much armour they have. it has a gun and is on a mobile platform, thats all thats needed

[@Saqux]

they have been seen on the 0 line too

[@heathermichael3987]

Why would anyone go fight in a modern war with ancient technology 🤦‍♀️

[@NomadJoe0323]

They don’t seem to have a choice

[@NomadJoe0323]

@GardeningforFreedom so you’re saying they prefer to use 70 year old equipment? Doubtful.

[@NomadJoe0323]

@GardeningforFreedom then they could be running low on properly trained soldiers. Perhaps using the older equipment since it’s easier to operate for the new soldiers but that doesn’t sound good either.

[@NomadJoe0323]

@GardeningforFreedom atleast they’re using Bradleys and leopards

[@NomadJoe0323]

@GardeningforFreedom okay great. So are you for or against Ukraine?

[@thellester]

I disagree with the five year assessment. Degraded forces have a catastrophic effect on effectiveness. It’s like adding used motor oil to replace quality gear lube. It won’t take long for problems to compound and accelerate for the Russians. With US support, this ends within two years, barring any black swan event.

[@doogleticker5183]

Like Putin falling out of a window or a tactical nuke…etc. 😮

[@michaelwellen2866]

I mean, you've been predicting the loss of Russia for 2 years now. Do I believe you anymore?

[@leonelfederico245]

Patience, it took over 40 years for communism to collapse. Sometimes it takes more time than thought for an inevitable outcome even when the outcome is certain.

[@harleyquinn8202]

@@leonelfederico245 Who will lose quicker, Ukraine or Russia?

[@nicholascarter9158]

No he hasn't. You people can't fucking read and it infuriates me

[@Stunde0Null0]

Realistic estimates based on satelite images put the remaining number of tanks around 2000-3000 (Source: Covert Cabal). The question is in which conditions are these tanks and other vehicles. So the russians will long run out of tanks before they run out of people

[@TaijDevon]

I had an interesting conversation with a Russian Captain in Lithuania while I was an active US Marine. I was trying to say how afraid Americans had been of Russians in the cold war. He insisted 'we were so afraid of you.' And heavily implied they still were. 'You Marines worse than Spetznaz'. I looked down at the ripped 230 lbs of me, evaluated, and thought, 'yeah, I wouldn't want to fight a whole bunch of me's eithier.' It was one of the few times I took stock of how bad ass US Marines are, even including me at the time. The US military spends ridiculously. But that doesn't mean they don't get some bang for their buck, including on troops. Shock troops in third world countries are less aware and cohesive warriors than our Army Reserves. The US has been at war more or less from it's conception half a millennia ago. And we are damn good at it.

[@rottenrobbie66]

Well it’s a non issue, as Ukraine won’t be fighting very much longer . Ukraine has nothing left to give . Peter is mirroring Ukraine’s issues and making it sound like Russia is losing. Nothing could be further from the truth.

[@haxney]

Perhaps. People have been saying that since literally day one, and Ukraine is still here.

[@rottenrobbie66]

@@haxneystill here? If you consider a pile of rubble and about 500k dead soldiers still here I suppose you may be on to something. Perhaps……

[@matthewcoleman5002]

I haven’t seen a single estimate put Russian casualties at 550-750k. Highest I’ve seen is Ukrainian MoD estimate of 460k.

[@johntillman6068]

Current British estimate for Russian killed and wounded, 24 February 2022 to 27 April 2024, is 450.000. Dunno if that includes Donetsk and Luhansk militias or not, but doesn't include missing, captured and deserted. Those considerations would get total casualties at least to 550,000, if not 750,000.

[@davidtaylor657]

The best overview/update on Russia's military situation I have heard or read. Outstandingly informative!

[@billcasso5428]

Russia is continually moving forward at a very slow pace but it keeps moving on. What Peter neglected to tell you about the T55 is that although it is an outmoded piece of equipment it is a very good piece of mobile artillery so when you stop thinking about the T55 as a tank and start think of it as another method to pound old the Ukrainian men who are hunkered down in the trenches it all makes sense.

[@baneofbanes]

It’s really not a good artillery piece though.

[@hootowl6354]

The barrel does rise enough to be an artillery piece of importance. Drones very easily incapacitate them too. Mobil coffins, they are.

[@billcasso5428]

@@hootowl6354 The barrel rises to what ever level you need. These are fixed positions you can dig the tank into the earth. They can shoot and scoot. Of course some get hit. These things happen. Russia is slowly winning that is the story.

[@koldus1234]

I watched an experts video in my country about the t55 tanks being used, and he claimed they are used as sort of a artillery, plus its good on certain terrain because its much lighter and it was used by the russian marines because its good for beaches and stuff. How valid is that? Or are they using it on frontlines?

[@heyho4770]

Recently there was footage of the "Blyatmobile". A T55 with a Cope shed leading the charge in an assault.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

Both sides are mainly using tanks as SP artillery now. And both sides are using T55s.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

All tanks have been used like that in Ukraine. Doesn't matter the age, indirect fire is important. However, tanks have less range than artillery and the barrels last less than an artillery barrel. So you don't pull T-55 tanks out of storage when you lack artillery. You do that when you're lacking tanks.

[@ernst624]

​@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311Have not seen Ukraine use T55 in any action. Do you have sources?

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

@@ernst624 Just google it. They're from Slovenia.

[@bobfry5267]

To draw the obvious parallel, the troops, and especially the pilots, defending Germany in 1944 were not the same people who conquered France and Poland. They were dead or dying in Stalingrad and Moscow, and Kursk, and the thousands of kilometres in between. New recruits died faster than they could become veterans, and every machine that was lost became less likely to be replaced. Tanks were utterly worn out,.( Or broke down due to hasty production. The new tanks were a mechanical nightmare.) The enemy was everywhere, endlessly, and support was conserved for doomed assault plans. Increasingly diverse and poorly armed elements were used to shore up the front, with predictable consequences. Götterdämmerung.

[@silentbullet2023]

Pinocchio is a fictional character and the protagonist of the children's novel The Adventures of Zeihan (1883) by Italian writer Carlo Collodi

[@klaasvakie]

Gullible's Travels.

[@divaanddress]

These reports are fascinating and Peter's super-fluid delivery makes him a communications tour-de-force. I always learn something from every video. But I have one niggling, prickly and (ahem), sensitive question. How does he...know these details? Would love to see a Zeihan vs Douglas MacGregor debate on the future of this conflict along with strategic commentary by John Lewis Gaddis.

[@Skyblade12]

Here's another prickly detail: Why does he carefully omit the situation on the other side?

[@andrewcall8961]

Douglas McGregor's take on the whole situation sounds a lot more plausible.

[@hootowl6354]

MacGregor is a complete kook. His anti-US bias is a product of his attraction to the social war. Every opinion of his depends on his politics.

[@istvanglock7445]

He gets them from other media sources. Then synthesizes and puts his own Zeihan spin on it all. I'm sure he doesn't have a team of investigators working in Russia.

[@hootowl6354]

@@istvanglock7445 No one with any credibility has a team of investigators in Russia. If they did, they'd be guided around to sanitized sites and locked up if they said the wrong thing. Russia is one big lie, just like the Soviet Union was.

[@bradleygardner1237]

Really appreciate your updates Peter!

[@PUARockstar]

Slava 🇺🇦

[@Freddy_Belt]

Slave

[@paulattaboyatreides6414]

you won the war and defeated Russia with that comment.

[@jamesbohling4864]

Curious about the causality numbers. Didn't think they were that high

[@rogerwilco2]

It is difficult to get accurate numbers on either side. But likely estimates put the number of dead Russians at 50-200 thousand and long term disabled wouded are usually 3-4x those. Ulraine has military losses about 1/3rd of the Russians but also a lot of civilian losses. Peters numbers on tanks are way off. Visually confirmed lost tanks are already at 2920 according to Oryx

[@dinismantas7265]

In all truth, I am not convinced they are THAT high, but I suspect they are high. With adequate help Ukraine could win this war just with the attrition of the Russian forces. It would take some years, off course. By adequate help I mean: Air defense systems, air force, enough 155mm artillery shells, Taurus and other long range weapon systems,...whatever they need. The way it stands, Ukrainians are taking absolutely unnecessary losses and all thanks to Duck a l'orange Donald and the Maga muppet faction.

[@yoooyoyooo]

It's an invented number. According to Ukrainians more than 400k Russians and 31k Ukraninans. However only a 3 yo child would believe that. Since the same Ukrainians say Russians have 10x more artillery. So an army that has 10X more artillery and basically air supremacy is losing 10X more people? Peter here is also inventing numbers he actually ofc doesn't have a clue.

[@Klausi666]

russia 46000 dead 280 000 wounded ukraine 31000 dead 700 000 missing wounded over 1 million.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

@@rogerwilco2 Everyone agrees that Russia has the aviation, armour, artillery and ammunition advantage. But Ukrainian losses are a third of Russian losses? This is extreme wishful thinking. Anyone who has been following this war with an open mind realises Ukrainian losses are higher - vastly higher. As or 200k Russian dead who are they all? Mediazona identifiers fewer than 50k Russian dead. As for Oryx - samples have been audited and it was found Russian losses were invented and exaggerated, Ukrainian losses were classified as Russian losses and one of the guys behind Oryx came up with the excuse we're volunteers, we don't have time to avoid mistakes. Maybe fair but the point is the Oryx numbers are meaningless.

[@loszhor]

2:45 The BBC just came out and said that the Russians have lost 50k soldiers. Is your original assessment still accurate or are they wrong?

[@_alienblood]

50k killed not courting injured

[@jeffwhite3679]

Please explain how the "defeated" Russian army is gaining ground in the east and has achieved local air superiority in many areas. Only someone who has no understanding of war would believe that Ukraine can last another 5-8 years. The Russians are fighting the way they have always fought.

[@Blablablabal1024]

We shall see....

[@testtube9423]

Thank goodness for this comment. It's reality on the ground and then I catch a Peter Z video and it's like watching an alternative universe.

[@alexbayswood4847]

Which has less optics, Russian Tanks or Russian Government?

[@Vlad_a450]

Currently, Muscovy has a labor shortage of 60% to 80%. All numbers must be considered in their entirety. No matter how many tanks there are in storage, they make sense as long as there are qualified engineers and logistics. Soldiers can fight as long as there are those who can plow the land and grow bread. Territory is important as long as it can be used for agriculture. Muscovy is large, but 70% of its territory is uninhabited and not suitable for anything. The population is very unfriendly. For this reason, having old tanks in warehouses is a burden, not a help. A car can drive at a constant speed until the last drop of fuel burns, but the government doesn’t work that way.

[@unojayc]

How long can Ukraine last without USA sending ammunition?...

[@ashifabedin]

9 day

[@fnowacki]

Yeah, it's critical right now, (especially when it comes to air defense), since Europe is still in the process of ramping up production.

[@infidelheretic923]

Not sure. Hope we don't have to find out.

[@kenwalker687]

Trump's Party are traitors to our principals. ❤‍🩹

[@elephantman2112]

When Ukraine loses this war, these videos will look pretty silly. Kinda like your video on the Ukrainian counteroffensive. What happened to that?

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

He won't care, he'll still get his high paid speaking gigs to military officers and big business

[@johnbravo2315]

Meanwhile China sits back and watches as countries expend enormous sums of money and lost lives during this conflict.

[@bogartjudakan6547]

the only question i have dear sir is . . . are they running out of them shovels? im getting scared as of now dear sir

[@chentaijiaustralianathan6881]

You said it would be over 1 year ago???

[@nicholascarter9158]

I'm pretty sure at the time he said it would be over a year ago because he predicted total Ukrainian defeat.

[@hootowl6354]

It should have been. But Putin is so stupid he can't admit his huge mistake. Every month this goes on is another year of negative consequences to Russian demographics, economics, and military preparedness. By now, Russia is so weakened that if NATO wanted to invade Russia it could roll right in. But they don't want to, of course, and never did - another Putin lie.

[@chentaijiaustralianathan6881]

@@nicholascarter9158 nope, go back all his vids are there, he was saying Russia would get rolled, then he said the spring offensive Russia would get rolled…he predictions are way off sometimes.

[@loudtim265]

At least the T-55 doesn’t have an auto loader that explodes all ordnance on contact.

[@johannschultz3743]

Where are those casualty numbers coming from?

[@Evan490BC]

Intelligence.

[@forcegfgf3123]

Form his stupid imagination

[@stevencramsie9172]

@@forcegfgf3123 found Putin’s burner account

[@b.carrie837]

Can you do an analysis on how long Ukraine can keep up this war before running out of their own cohort of 20+ men?

[@TheBuckeyeFarm]

Ukraine has a clone army, so they just hatch new soldiers daily.

[@paulodingle2142]

Ukraine has just began conscription for younger people so I’m guessing they’ve got the manpower for another year or two. But the difference between the two is Ukraine is getting modern equipment so their losses are so much less than Russias

[@timsheraden408]

Possibly need to factor in the aging, and any continued manpower exodus depletion, of those manpower reserves during that 5 to 8 year window. I would guess that the longer the war goes, the more the exodus will accelerate. That said … I’m sure Peter has better intel than I will ever see.

[@skenzyme81]

Tanks aren't especially relevant anymore with ubiquitous drone warfare. They're just targets. Going the way of the battleship. Might as well squeeze out whatever utility they have.

[@dimonquad89]

05:22 - not good. In 5-8 years not much will left form us(in Ukraine I mean)

[@kjj26k]

Also not true, at these rates, Russia will be out of assault vehicles in two years at most. Maybe even one, depending on how this summer goes.

[@altratronic]

Russia has lost more than 15,000 armored vehicles, including more than 2900 tanks, to capture less than 20% of Ukraine. And those are just the visually confirmed losses. The actual numbers could be a lot higher. Many of their "reserve" vehicles are used for parts only, because they're already so badly stripped or rusted or both.

[@PaulV.]

How that guy got 700k+ followers is beyond me. T-55s are used by Russians as heavily armored APCs and artillery support and not as real tanks that btw are completely lost their value in the times of drone warfare. Both T-55 worth $200k and $5mil. Abrams M1 are quickly destroyed by a couple of $500 FPV drones moments after they are spotted on a battlefield. And I dont even plan to comment on his ridiculous numbers of "Russian casualties" (the only credible source now - the Mediazone project gives numbers lower by a magnitude).

[@jamesg2382]

I have seen very few T55’s on the front lines in the latest footage. When they are used they are more often used as artillery. Plenty of T80’s. So not sure how these generalisations hold up

[@MajikPPMan]

Imagine predicting that the Russians would sacrifice almost a million men to attack their neighbor in 2024! Blows my mind

[@danstrick3314]

It's 2024 and Peter and his fanboys are still in their "they are fighting with shovels" stage

[@albertmaziarz6739]

ther progress is with shovels

[@FreedomFox1]

This is a wildly optimistic assessment, well beyond any claims made by Ukraine or NATO. Your Russian casualty numbers are 50% higher than even Ukrainian claims, much less objective sources. BBC-Mediazona counts 50,000 deaths and estimates 75,000… which explains the 400,000 Russian volunteers in 2023 (people don’t volunteer for a meat grinder). There’s also no reason to believe that Russia would only draw soldiers from men in their 20’s. The average Ukrainian fighting man is over 40 - do you really think Russia wouldn’t also conscript old men, if it really had to? But let’s just assume that all of your numbers are correct, that Russia has 5-8 years left. The real question here is, will ANY Ukrainians be left to fight in 5 years? You know the answer to this question, which is why you don’t ask it. This war is a disaster that needs to end. We could have let this quietly end one month into the war - the Ukrainians had negotiated such a good deal, they were popping champagne. But it would have kept NATO out, so we talked them out of it. Now it looks like Ukraine will lose 20% of its territory, at a bare minimum. They will lose much much more, if your dream of fighting to the last man is realized. If we care about the Ukrainians at all, we should have encouraged them to make peace early on, or at least when they were fully stocked with ammo and weapons. We’ve put them in a terrible position, but it’s not going to get any better…

[@darioswatchclub8]

Thank you!

[@spqr1945]

Covert Cabal actually did a counting of Russian tanks in storages across country, and made a conclusion that it will be enough for just 2 more years. And secondly it’s not mostly 20 year olds on a frontlines of Ukraine, average age is Russian soldier is 35-40 years old, a lot of them are in their 50s.

[@dominiccampbell6131]

You even look nervous stating those figures mate