The Macro "Endgame": Growth, Gold, Deflation, and the Dollar (w/Lyn Alden and Eric Basmajian)

[@EPBResearch]

Thank you to Real Vision and Lyn Alden for granting me the opportunity to share my research framework and macro outlook. I am grateful they were both kind enough to give me time on their platform.

[@philipoulton7730]

Lyn is an excellent interviewer... getting her onboard at Real Vision was a very smart move.

[@benjaminyebuga794]

I can watch KZbin economic analysis from Lyn Alden all day -- her fluency on macro-fundamentals are unparalleled in her generation.

[@davidhebert1846]

Congratulations Raul, Lyn is a huge shark to land for you show!

[@johnburton9772]

These two young people are the most financially-knowledgeable I have ever to whom I have ever listened! I strained to understand 30 percent of their conversation but I sense they have an accurate grasp of current financial status and reasonable understanding of prospective “endgames.

[@elizabethkaye298]

Great questions from Lyn and very clear and thorough, thoughtful answers from Eric. 5 stars.

[@wildcsgotactics]

Love the way he talks. He's really great at giving accurate answers.

[@suekleiman]

Excellent discussion, one of the best I have heard in a long time.

[@Soilfoodwebwarrior]

That was awesome, one of the best conversations I've ever heard. First time I've seen Lyn do an interview hopefully it will not be the last, that was epic. As I have said many times before Lyn is the best investment I've ever made.

[@emmanuelananda6551]

Excellent discussion. I do wish that Lyn had asked him to distinguish between the potential effects of this unprecedented fiscal stimulus as opposed to the monetary stimulus that the guest focuses on his analysis. There are reasons to think that the impact will be different, as the transfer mechanism is totally different. He makes a compelling case for long term stagnant real growth. Lyn is a gem. Thanks for posting.

[@taylorcollins615]

Great interview so far, 2 very bright individuals. Thanks from Vermont.

[@c05l24]

I see Lyn...I watch! Brilliant person.

[@BlockchainBreakthru]

The young lacey hunt. This convo us excellent. Learned a lot. A+

[@75davemanning]

Is Lyn representing Real Vision now? Awesome addition if so!

[@skyoung419z]

Great interview. It’s cool to see you asking the questions for a change, Lyn!

[@Adam-vs9qc]

Wow, superb interview. Great guest and interviewer! Thanks!

[@mikeo2420]

Lyn Alden and Real Vision! You have my undivided attention.👍

[@bobjimbla]

Great to see you on this side of the mic, Lyn!

[@truthlove1114]

Great interview and I love Lyn in any format

[@monkeybearmax]

Fantastic interview Lyn! I learned a lot from your insightful qws and the responses from Eric.

[@Gil-y6d]

In that this is really good analysis, it is quite surprising that nobody left replis. Thanks, good job.

[@powerlinkers]

If you could put timestamps , it would be great. Watching this for Lyn Alden.

[@GBlunted]

The way these two communicate with each other is so on par with one another it's kinda weird... just the heaviest conversation between 2 seemingly very young but quintessential macro economists!

[@stemmeup9040]

Thank you for the interview and your ideas and knowledge. I think we definitely need to think more about our kids and the next generation and not just ourselves. This doesn't mean just handing our children a million dollars to protect themselves. It's always something we don't expect to happen. Noboby cares about how much you know until they know how much you care. Kind of thing. What we do now may hurt but think about the future not just whats good for you or what you think is good for the next gen. I enjoyed the conversation in this aspect.

[@kpsingh79]

Why are the interviews not posted much closer to the actual date of their recordings so that they are much more relevant?

[@jscheurichIV]

What was the date of this interview?

[@lrg8737]

Always top notch insights and commentary! Much appreciated 🙏

[@Gil-y6d]

In that this is really good analysis, it is a bit surprising that nobody commented on this video. Thanks.

[@stevenwieners8101]

Looking forward to listening. You are great at what you do!!

[@mathieupatenaudedufour8370]

Je ne le connaissais pas lui! Super intéressant. Merci Lyn et Eric

[@davidklefeker5010]

this was great guys!

[@nachannachle2706]

Excellent and well-grounded discussion. Thank you.

[@libertysprings2244]

Can you also explain why some companies are considered growth companies even with flat earnings for over 5 years? It seems the p/e rises but sometimes just due to share buybacks. Also confused how stock based compensation factors into earnings if it turns out we are in a stock bubble and the stock compensation is suddenly worth less and the salary needs to rise to compensate. Wouldn't that reduce the earnings if salary expenses are suddenly higher?

[@omniver]

Thanks Lyn for the interview. What does Eric think about Bitcoin? Why recommend Gold over BTC when Debt/GDP is 200%+?

[@oscarmike4596]

Awesome Lyn!

[@adamc2320]

Really good interview!

[@sesbirikiuc]

Hi lyn The analysis for commodities is good, but I recommend that you make graphs that show the correlation with the causes of movement in these commodities. In summary, it is seen that interest rates increased only in 10 years and 5 years, but shouldn't it start with an increase in daily repo under normal conditions?

[@saratogapilot6100]

Thank you, Lyn, for writing the really excellent article on the subject of Bitcoin / cryptocurrency network value in Seeking Alpha today.

[@876pips]

Did real vision hire lynn? Good looks

[@svenkateswaran7516]

Excellent guest for the layman.

[@darkhorsegold]

Very solid interview!

[@mikemartin5340]

This was great- super informative

[@428ggg]

Do you think people put to much buttermilk in the ranch dressing recipes? those cherry tomatoes need some ranch goodness too.

[@nvrselout3678]

36:59 invest in the people who are going to produce the things consumed. 48:07 How do we raise real GDP per capita if 40, 50 , or 60% are experiencing a decline? How about we start by employing U 6?

[@joshualessard02]

incredible interview

[@andrewm6786]

This was a really good talk. I find the focus on GDP to be a little bit misdirected though. The current political game being played is only partially about increasing GDP, its also about scoring political points by redistributing the sources of GDP.

[@daverockintesla1487]

Great interview!

[@LazywonKinobe]

So refreshing to hear the deep intelligence of macro economics, the main asset in predicting the gfc back in 06, and having been so Bull on the global crash again by About July since 19, momentum is unstoppable , even predicting Covid to witness the scapegoat opportunity. Interesting time you might say, Bull as on commodities 👌🏿

[@ericanderson3534]

Great interview.

[@rahul-Zr543]

brilliant insights...👍

[@timbassett9766]

Two very great minds 🌹👍🇦🇺

[@dallasmclaughlin4127]

Thanks for the insight!

[@Korrath]

So after an hour of intelligent, well thought out macro economic ideas, the conversation turns toward gold and what role it might play in the equation...and neither of you mentioned Bitcoin?

[@3bertotti]

Great job lyn

[@hungusthefungus3461]

Really Well Done, you just wish it was Longer.

[@mrnegative48]

great video

[@baconegggandcheese]

lyn alden 💙💙💙😍

[@ggrthemostgodless8713]

Perhaps because this is an area or economy that is male dominated, the women in this sector tend to be extremely smart and knowledgeable. Lyn is a rockstar on all these issues and strategies.

[@ValdeSanus]

MMT doesn't suggest one should pay people to dig holes, nor does it suggest that one should steal workers and resources from the private sector. MMT is describing the monetary system we currently have, where obviously (as we can see) there is no real fiscal restriction on government. The logical conclusion drawn by some MMT folk from that inference is that we should put UNUSED resources (labour etc) to work on PRODUCTIVE output. MMT also describes perfectly the Trump tax cuts where higher govt defecits translates to increases earnings on corporate balance sheets - it is a different conclusion drawn from the same beginning. The conclusions drawn from the factual statements of MMT depending on your viewpoint. Understanding of MMT allowed several bond traders to profit heavily from the understanding of soverign currency issuance and default risk.

[@austinrogers2632]

I'm a simple man. I see Eric Basmajian and I click.

[@sergiomontano6497]

Cheers to Real Vision

[@moriartyco]

...and if aliens come down i'd get Lyn to greet them!

[@robertcrotty9000]

I disagree with this guest on regional banks and the dollar. You have to be long both -- at least for now. Rates are going higher. We might see 2% on the 10 rear by June!

[@mutantryeff]

Reruns should be in B&W

[@stephenodey5147]

Excellent

[@pjcornell4318]

I think he is wrong about the direction of the relationship between transfer payments and productive investment in this case. The transfer payments took place after production essentially went to zero. If anything the transfer payments were necessary to jumpstart things back into motion. Compound that with the fact that in recent history banks have stopped lending for productive purposes. In this particular case, I think that transfer payments are more likely to result in productive investment than not considering our starting point.

[@DAbaskkid]

Brillilant.

[@0mar9]

This guy is a disciple of Dr. Lacy Hunt. Great

[@Greg_P611]

Man she’s beautiful & smart! Great show!

[@draymond5067]

I like Lyn...

[@precociousdeathdealer202]

How much does this guy earn. What is his age

[@Breezemike]

Smart dialogue with heavy talk of gold as the safe haven which surprised me as it’s T HE most manipulated asset on the planet. Silver no different but at least the Gold/silver ratio is offering silver as the better bet without question. Bitcoin???? In my mind the best safe haven bar none.

[@pekkarousu3616]

I just wonder why so many accept the official inflation numbers. Almost everybody says the inflation in consumer goods/services is much higher but YET they always use the official inflation in charts. For example the chart 1967-2021 of real growth in GDP. The way to calculate official inflation has changed over time. It's like using different length rulers. IF a person argues that the current way of calculate inflation is correct you must change inflation in history. If inflation the last 20 years has been in reality 4% and not 2% the real growth in GDP has been negative. This way of accepting different ways of calculating inflation is not honest. It's like using a ruler with inches for one time and the next time a ruler with centimeters and say it is the same.

[@libertysprings2244]

One point about GDP I would make is that GDP would be lower yet wellbeing would be higher if we paid single mothers a salary (per household) rather than pay their childcare while they work for low wages at McDonalds. This practice only benefits the big companies seeking lower wages by increasing the labor pool beyond what would be best for mothers and children. Men also suffer the lower wages and loss of ability to support a family. Just my opinion but maybe food for thought. It almost seems like congress just tried to increase GDP numbers without any concern for societal cost/benefit

[@kalu19991]

Is Lyn Alden elven? That is so cool 😎.

[@jamesbowman1767]

This kid is smart

[@bst3690]

Land as a form of gold, wow first finacial upside to being a farmer

[@limlwl]

Hyperinflation is coming due to ever increasing commodity prices.... Perhaps Michael Burry is correct... maybe Gold play is best?

[@davidthomas-uc6ru]

ministry of truth says we are to stop using the words inflation and deflation, and instead say growth and non growth

[@xsw882]

first, 4 days after this was posted

[@HipHopBeatSource]

Dude looks like prod

[@lisalph8922]

What's with the placebo comments? Why don’t we get to see other people's comments? This seems shady in some way.

[@johntheaccountant5594]

One can tell that Eric Basmajian knows very little about the International market. One cannot be a Macro Economist if you do not understand the international market/economy.

[@Mstrofpup]

The interruptions need to go.

[@tomlucas4269]

Inflation sounds very unlikely

[@dixonpinfold2582]

He starts every sentence with "Sure so." Does he even know he's doing it?

[@Kleyzrontv]

Is there still anyone who didnt know about RJVX12?

[@narwhaltacos2197]

This interview proves that age-old saying that “Economics is boring, therefore Economists need to be very attractive.”

[@mannsam2792]

Hello

[@davemi00]

Fiat Money is death to Freedom. * Wether it be paper or digital Fiat.

[@ajstone2053]

Debt can be a growth generating. Bad debt leads to no growth. Investment in green has shown no growth...

[@largebeden4811]

RJVX12 bring me 300% profit because of Tesla pump

[@user-mu5iz8qy1z]

Investing in crypto is the only big chance of making money

[@jesperandersson889]

fake signals??

[@suzannekim2801]

He seems a little inexperienced, relying on far fetched ideas to make it all sound genius. I’ll stick with Lyn

[@meditationnostalgia7136]

Call yourself a researcher?

[@joycekoch5746]

Pop goes Biden's 15.00 dollar minimal wage.

[@MrManifolder]

This guy seems to have been fed a complete strawman argument of MMT. Professor Kelton and other MMT advocates frequently talk about using deficit spending to increase the productive capacity of the economy. MMT thinks about money flowing into the economy from government spending as water flowing into a tub and thus using that money to directly increase the size of the tub (the productive capacity of the economy) increases your economy's tolerance to potential inflation despite large spending. Secondly, the private sector has proven on many occasions to be just as wasteful as the public sector. Indeed innovation is an unavoidably wasteful process that leaves many failed firms in its wake. Additionally, the private sector is only incentivized by profits of individual firms and sectors and thus is constantly pulling resources away from (or actively blocking) economic activities that benefit the common good but not the profit margins of powerful firms. For example, we could have had a completely decarbonized economy by now if we had not let private fossil fuel companies prevent any government action toward a massive project of building green power generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure.

[@merve1898]

Guys you didnt know about RJVX12?

[@akrnite]

First !