Inflationary Pressures on the Dollar and the Euro to Come (w/ Brent Johnson and Russell Napier)

[@pascalxus]

The ramifications of what they're saying is so far beyond what the title implies. And to hear them talk about it without any hyperbole. This is absolutely incredible! Cap day is coming!

[@patrickdoyle2510]

"A central banker is a person who would permit inflation in anything except wages." Savage.

[@Mark1959Holladay]

Patrick, am sixty two and haven't met a banker let a lone a cenral banker that wouldn't sell his mother for a buck. Now with the FED lifting the reserve rates they are counterfeiting outright. We other than Christ are on our own and I am stacking Gold and Silver. Blessings to you

[@likuidmethod]

On point

[@coleb9410]

@@Mark1959Holladay You need to be in equities as well.

[@ratfacekick]

Russel Napier vs Jeff Snider title fight at the garden. Get it done Raoul

[@WTFinancepodcast]

It is crazy how right he has been with everything that has happened!

[@srmxe417]

Another year lapsed and still holds!

[@michaeldooley5845]

I am very much a new comer to economics aged 49! Real Vision et al and great interviews like this are an overdue education. Thanks

[@theciakilledjfk5973]

Encouraging to hear. Most people just want their opinions validated. It takes a lot more work to challenge yourself.

[@dollymartin7498]

Me too!

[@cryptoskywalker6000]

They don't want us to understand Economics. They wouldn't have any worker bees.

[@cryptoskywalker6000]

Actually, everybody doesn't have a bank account. Not even in the United States. It's actually shocking how many people don't have a bank account. It probably explains a lot of the civil unrest.

[@johnl.7754]

@@cryptoskywalker6000 with today’s almost zero interest rates I actually feel sorry for those with a lot of cash in bank accounts (like my parents) :-)

[@xiangyang99]

Russell is amazing. His forecast on inflation in 2021 was amazingly prescient.

[@justinb8602]

Fascinating discussion! Thank you Brent for great questions and thank you Russell for well thought out and to the point answers. I am saving this to come back and watch again

[@barbaraherda9212]

42:45 Great discussion so far. I just can’t agree that this is capitalism, as bailouts and bail ins are NOT capitalism. Even if you say it has a Chinese twist to it. In real capitalism, those companies would’ve gone under and been replaced by better run ones, or they’d claim bankruptcy and restructured to be better run.

[@markmanzo2488]

The way our system is set up we have to bail out the banks or everything would collapse.

[@zubstep]

@@markmanzo2488 Anything avoiding that short-term collapse causes a misallocation of capital. The bigger that misallocation is, the more potential growth is destroyed. This is essentially the Austrian view in short.

[@BasedHawaiian]

There is quite a difference between a market economy and a command economy. If you researched and understand the differences, you would not disagree.

[@andrequitobastos]

Amazing to hear this interview in 2021 and see how much Napier got it right. Brilliant.

[@RayyanMusa]

Brilliant insight, Russell Napier's explanation thing to come make difficult on what financial bets to place.

[@fundyourhustle]

Wow one of the better interviews. 👏 great job, definitely going to look more into Napier and his work.

[@ccsecretwealth2055]

Russell has a level of depth of knowledge, wow. He is one of the best person I've listened to recently. Great interview by Brent.

[@TheCJUN]

This Scottish Irishman is brilliant. Thank you Real Vision for hosting this discussion!

[@JM-gu3tx]

The proper term, which most Americans do not (and should know) is "Ulster Scotsman". It's what Americans erroneously call "Scots-Irish".

[@elonmuskox4305]

Great interview. I would have liked to hear Russell's opinion on precious metals and bitcoin.

[@jdrever8]

He spoke briefly in another interview about btc. Quickly dismissed the topic as he doesn’t know enough and would rather leave it to people that know more.

[@vm6971]

@@jdrever8 nobody knows about Bitcoin. If you invested in BTC you praise it. If not you talk it down. If you swing trade it like me you absolutely neutral towards it.

[@tensevo]

He spent most of the interview talking about inflation going up. That is bullish for all physical and scarce assets.

[@sparksj20]

Andreas antopopulous knows bitcoin. If you havent heard of him, look him up. He has a few very technical talks.

[@libertyovertyranny3991]

He knows Bitcoin is nonsense

[@jamesknight7705]

TY for a high level discussion in terms and presentation but hay that's what you expect and receive from Real Vision. Thanks for putting this information out there for free. Raoul's content on the subscription service is outstanding.

[@michaelharrison9340]

Excellent interview with Russell (the non-Scotsman). Thank you

[@regbar0]

I don't know about this one, Chief.

[@retro8919]

“They create a lot more money but not more debt” explain that one champ

[@Doors_of_janua]

ok, let's say I owe you. 1000 dollars. Let's say it equals a nice bike. I owe you a bike. let's say the dollar devalues. I still owe you 1000, right? ... well that is half a bike now. I owe you half a bike... So did we create more debt??? ... no we just changed the numbers.

[@uzah88]

@@Doors_of_janua thanks for the explanation. From your example did we actually decrease the debt? Wouldn’t it be easier to pay off ‘half a bike’. Or does that have to assume wages must also go up in money.

[@JC-XL]

Let's now think about who's making that bike - China. So now China is making bikes that cost twice more dollars for example, but the two clowns in the interview keep insisting that China will go down first, go figure ...

[@KyleDunnIt]

@@Doors_of_janua The issue with this explanation is it contradicts what he said just before claiming there was "more money but not more debt" - he says there was ~10 years of _deflation_ after QE/low rates, not _inflation_. Complete nonsense and the interview only just started.

[@filipemoreira5193]

Except his is mistaking the order in which all this happens. I live in Brazil and the Government is already kind of doing Cap Day/Financial repression (but not in the sense they weren't able to create inflation before, but the exact opposite, they trying to force banks to buy their bonds and keep rising Household debts without rising interest rates so Debt to GDP don't lead to something like Greece Crisis), and we haven't seen the dollar spike yet and they have already started "smooth" capital control, imaging when the reserve currency comes to collect dollar denominated debts arround the world. So the order is: first junk government bonds goes bust (and there are many gvnmt bonds in the line before dev. Markets ), than you would have Cap Day there, than capital flights to developed markets (that's when the the Dollar milkshake theory reinflates Nasdaq hyperbubble etcetera... But I think there will be a crash first because the velocity of defaults are greater than velocity of money creation/lending rate in post-Corona enviroment) and than the exploding financial market brings back consumption confidence... Which leads to growth and inflation in the US that will have to struggle with higher interest rates and eventually will have to cap it.

[@konradzawadzki2616]

This guy should debate Steven Van Metre!

[@konradzawadzki2616]

@Stuart Hawkins I just found out Steven even made a video about his interview on real vision. Just shortly describing the thesis without any rebutal. He only mentioned the fact that in his opinion for the government to guarantee bank loans on a large scele there needs to be a deflationary shock first. I still dont know what to think about it

[@konradzawadzki2616]

@Stuart Hawkins yes, that is my guess as well. They are probably taking different time frames into account. But timing is essential in this game

[@migueis007]

@@konradzawadzki2616 but i dont think central banks would allowed high inflation becouse peoples debt would be paid would worthless dollars

[@matthewlee112]

@@migueis007 the point is central bankers wouldn’t have the option to deny inflation because the bankers will be at the mercy of the government

[@migueis007]

@@matthewlee112 governments are at the mercy of the banks. But even if you are right. There is no big inflation. The monetary supply is contracting not expanding.

[@parkd1]

Wow, and I mean wow, that was a discussion worth listening to, and then listening to again... nice work Brent and most of all thank for sharing your work Russell.. the depth of your insight requires deep concentration and revisit... best regards to you both..

[@George-jm4rn]

The interview was frustrating. First, the interviewer should not tell us what the interviewee thinks and has said or written. Let the interviewee speak for himself. Second, make your questions succinct. That said, Napier is a wonderful teacher and his insights and perspectives were valuable.

[@LusoCMD]

This is such a great interview!!! Well done Brent and Russell is amazing.

[@TheWanderingInvestor]

Hilarious intro “call me anything but a scotsman» 😅

[@JM-gu3tx]

Even though Northern Ireland is heavily "Ulster Scots". How ironic.

[@emperorsnewclothes2429]

What about the 50, 80, 100 or million people worldwide who have lost their jobs, businesses or lost wages.

[@retro8919]

Apparently they don’t matter and their lack of income (and demand) won’t put downward pressure on prices. I mean he literally said boats, art, and classic cars are going up in value, I have no idea why that matters when talking about CPI inflation

[@stevenjohnson1062]

Brent another awesome interview. I see things a little different now. Thank you.

[@neofoo23]

Wonderful interview. Thanks you so much, Brent and Russell.

[@gerardocarrillo56]

Incredibly valuable information. Great discussions.

[@crakatinni]

This aged like gold

[@jakaciman2620]

Great Show. Thanks everbody who created it.

[@davidcoursey5041]

Because... Real Vision!!! is the hub, the economic and finance educator of this moment in time. My favorite firework, around 34 min in: "...in terms of currencies...euro is not a currency... it is an experiment...an attempt to create a currency..." and the line of thought that follows to around the 36 min mark.

[@cjfinance3829]

At last, found time to watch this video! Really great video, one of the best on RV. Excellent Napier, great story teller, large and profund knowledge and not using dry language of academics. Spot on questions from Brent. Glad they also talked about the elephant in the room (China). Sadly i am afraid "Big Finance" is lured by China... I lived there and i can understand the attraction: well educated, brilliant & hard working population, but the CCP controls everything and they will never let go. Also, China is ultra nationalist, would have I invested in Germany in 1936? shure it was quite attractive, they had a Chancellor who loved order! but... China's rules are not the same, we are only "barbarians" to them. I am French, I left France in 2000 for UK, I voted with my feet, Napier is sadly right on France... going nowhere (new Venezuela / Argentina?). Sadly more and more countries are going nowhere. Singapore?

[@rogerrose4845]

China is business, America nation builder running out of growth. I hope it does not cause another war.

[@trader8CTA]

outstanding presentation and interview - thx!

[@ahuempfner]

Most informational and Favorite video! Well done Real Vision

[@MarkMark-ji6ts]

Deflationary 2020. Housing up, Food prices up, Stock market up, Bitcoin up, Gold up, Silver up, Council rates up, Insurance up. Yep deflation totally everywhere.

[@sparksj20]

Deflationary relative to other currencies in the dxy. Consumer inflation is up

[@tylerminix2028]

It's like you didn't even listen to the interview.

[@patruff]

Endgame interview, now this, great interview Brent, Russell is a treasure despite his weird love of bear anatomy.

[@PuerinTheHunter]

beautiful map, Brent!

[@whenmullet2674]

Left after the first commercial for Real Vision.

[@ainisepalu8427]

I am understanding what is happening in our economy. Great interview!

[@walterwalker9320]

Great show with a lot of excellent topics and thoughts that are based in reality !!! Gave me sense of hope.... Great guest and moderator!!

[@toddwegner3680]

Jeff Snider and Steven Van Meter might disagree with this.

[@sivi9741]

What part ?

[@robertpaulson6388]

@@sivi9741 All of it - Van Metre says we are in for deflation because people don't have money. He's a bond guy.

[@sivi9741]

@@robertpaulson6388 Well he said he just change his mind for next year for Inflation . And it make a lot of sense , government will create money with fiscal stimulus since bank won’t lend . And when ton »free » money hit Main Street , inflation will spike up . Always easier to have inflation after deflation for a long time . Look at commodities prices, all time low .

[@anistar002]

I am in the inflation camp(Gold) , but I really love Steven weekly shows, and in that he shows the real time data, how the deflation is working in real time. Disputing him requires data and I am yet to see from the inflation camp what data they are following. I am still learning folks.

[@julisx1766]

Thats because they hate money :)

[@danis1977]

Brents financial predictions track record is on par with Harry Dent

[@maxcc9161]

lol

[@JC-XL]

Exactly, and the guy continues to push his milk-shake theory 😂 😂

[@12InchesUnBuffed]

that's what happens when they believe low rates = deflationary low rates is inflationary first then deflationary later when debt becomes unsustainable and ends up bursting, thereby driving rates to double digits.

[@olgachumak7975]

Thank you so much for such fascinating and exploratory interview. Truly, European countries are expensively growing their debt burdens, but US is doing the same. Though, considering reserve currency status and other factors, US have always managed to become the most attractive investment area. But in the contemporary environment and direction of change, viability of such outcome is quite doubtful.

[@Cromius771]

That mortgage change in the UK will cause house prices there to absolutely sky rocket. Same scheme in Canada and Australia with government insured mortgages. Banks have no risk to lend and credit is extended regardless of risk.

[@catcar9157]

But no one has any extra money in nyc, so who is buying? They are already stretched so thin on real estate. What’s going on?

[@caroledoerr6872]

You are right. Interest rates have transferred wealth from older savers.

[@timgriner529]

One thing that I believe is that if inflation Brent will change his position. I am in no way qualified to argue for inflation or deflation so I am trying to prepare for either. Either way we will eventually pay for Our undisciplined fiscal policies.

[@nateo6806]

Historical Like for my man Cincinnatus, one of the best rulers you've never heard of.

[@healthygrowth7760]

If money from government given directly to the public bypassing commercial banks creates inflationary forces.. Where does welfare, social security and all other programs fit into this conversation.. Keeping in mind that tax revenues are not enough to cover government spending

[@tonyfaulknor8273]

2:12 He's a Bard. The wisdom of the ancient ones is back.

[@TheBbturtle]

It's very simple. The government has every incentive to have low interest rates and inflation & the power to make both of those things happen. Any bouts of deflation we've had was due to inexperience with managing this monetary system & a lack of knowledge about what was going on in the credit markets. The fed and Washington are determined to inflate the monetary supply and keep interest rates low. My bet is that their persistence and past experience helps them do it.

[@hughstryker5637]

Thank you for uploading the whole thing, I've been waiting a month to hear this

[@gregwelch5994]

the 4% inflation is to work off the debt and transfer wealth from old to young?? Huh? It's increasing the wealth gap dramatically and will continue to do so. Inflation is already much higher than 4%. More like 10% if you use the 1980 cpi basket due to things like healthcare, housing....and the adjustments downwards b/c your computer has even more CPUs...which really makes life easier. The working class in competition w ROW for wages. The reason it is so difficult to get by for so many is the artificial markets/professions (with moats for no reason other than to prevent competition)....and QE/pushing up asset/home prices for the 'top' 10% those own assets. How can you present this strategy without pointing out the flaws...and a real soln?

[@simonb7048]

I think the difference, they mention several times, (for example compared with '08) is that cash is being funneled into bank accounts directly. Helicopter money essentially. This is quite different because it means that there is less bifurcation between SMEs and large multinationals when there is ensuing inflation. The video is just a hypothesis and isn't meant to be scripture. Russell openly admits he could be wrong.

[@BasedHawaiian]

All he is saying, if you are asking him the mechanics within the constraints of using current CPI, then this is what we can expect.

[@thoughtsbeforefeelings]

Lacy Hunt stated that the trigger for Inflation concerns is when the Fed Reserves are used in the broad money supply. If I am understanding this correct, the Fed and Treasury will effectively be doing this when the PPP loans are forgiven.

[@adamc2320]

When the money for the PPP loans is forgiven, it just gets added to the national debt. Money wouldn't need to be allocated in the spending bills for PPP if that was the case.

[@nicholasstabile445]

@@adamc2320 huh? Regardless of whether it’s forgiven or not it’s inflationary in that money is created. Upon paying it back (which lets face it, no is paying it back, either they’ll meet the forgiveness requirements, or they’ll default) then that money creation is destroyed. Everyone is saying no inflation due to the shut down of money velocity by federal mandates to close/limit capacity on businesses. All of that money that the fed just gave away is finding its way into the stock market as there’s literally no other place to spend it. Additionally as far as grocery prices, the bailouts to the farmers is preventing drastic price increases as demand continues to rise.

[@adamc2320]

@@nicholasstabile445 The money had to be spent on payroll and the business so if anything it's just bridging part of the output gap. Even if it's forgiven it's part of the national debt. Bonds need to be issued to pay for it, like all of the other spending provisions in the Cares Act. I think the mandates to close businesses has little effect on inflation. Excess debt leads to deflation over the long term. This is well documented.

[@nicholasstabile445]

@@adamc2320 the system literally cannot deflate. The deflationary spiral would collapse the system entirely. Tell me where you see any signs of deflation? Certainly not in asset prices. Stocks, Bonds, real estate, bitcoin & Gold all at all time highs. How about CPI numbers? Has your grocery bill gone down? Energy? Restaurant bill? All have increased. The only thing that is cheaper now than in the past is technology...tvs, computers , cameras..etc. unemployment has never been higher, people eating at food banks. If there is deflation, what would be the remedy for the millions already suffering from poverty? One persons spending is another person’s income. If the system is allowed to fail it just gets that much worse for the have nots....literal starvation and homelessness on epic levels. Not going to happen in my opinion. Please feel free to reubut my argument.

[@catcar9157]

@@adamc2320 then we become Japan?

[@Rob-ft3qe]

Great discussion, really enjoyed it.

[@12InchesUnBuffed]

Hey Brent, big fan of you but just a friendly reminder to prepare to pay Peter another gold coin in January :)

[@andrewlau9583]

Real Vision Ad-breaks are THE WORST TIMED OF ALL TIME

[@e7venjedi]

They are so loud and shocking too. I need a warning that it's coming up to not have a heart attack.

[@sankarawasright1192]

Wonderful guest

[@kulturfreund6631]

He highly praises his interview partner without even knowing where he's from? Scotsman? : ) Even I as a German without knowing the man at all, hear that he's Irish. Reminds me of the joke of the young couple that just got married and that has its first private crisis: She: D...D...Darling...I...I...I...have to confess something to you! ...I...I...I'm colorblind ! He: Oh, Darling. I also have to confess something to you: I'm not from Jena. ...I'm from Ghana.

[@BasedHawaiian]

Napier lives and works in Scotland. Everyone, who’s anyone, knows Napier for his prowess.

[@j3rb3]

One of the best pods of 2020 in my opinion - thanks! One question came to my mind though when discussing about genious Swiss plan to buy World equities after excess demand for their currency and statement that capital controls would be better solution. Why would capital control be better solution for the Swiss than buying top equities from the world? What would the Swiss gain of the capital control vs. their current solution?

[@oanairani41]

Fantastic interview...thank you

[@WorldReserveCurrency]

Brent Johnson: Russell, do you have a formula for how I can win a bet against Peter Schiff?

[@mycameraview]

Hi Brent, great map! I live behind your right ear :-)

[@rogerrose4845]

I still believe in the milkshake. I am scared some times I am holding to many dollars. I do have small real estate, silver, gold, crypto, cash, and currency in bank. I worry about the currency because holding to buy deals. I need milkshake to work. I am new to investing, but living below my earnings hope I am not robbed.

[@BasedHawaiian]

These discussions are long term investing discussions. You might want to speak to a qualified money manager.

[@firefighterps2]

Seems like you have done just about all you, or any of us can do. These are difficult times to navigate.

[@Zaphod23]

what are the two debts?

[@charlygriffin2828]

There's a lot of things in this interview where I'm thinking 'are you sure about that?' Russell's economic solutions seem entirely based on introducing draconian laws to make people and institutions do things against their interests.

[@miklossz]

They say we had a deflationary environment in the last few years. I don't understand why they say that. CPI was growing, money supply was growing (except m0) and asset prices were generally rising.

[@samikhatib2158]

Disinflation

[@samikhatib2158]

Not negative but going down historically

[@unomilan]

Excellent and interesting discussion.

[@kanaljenskanal]

Its going to be very interesting to see these ideas mature during 2021 and beyond . Will we have broad inflation and a real increase i blue collar wages or maybe start 2021 with a real crisis for the average joe before the inflation takes off.

[@nicholasstabile445]

There’s going to be an insane amount of infrastructure spending for electric vehicles and Green energy. This will of course create an increase in blue collar wages. Still doesn’t solve the moral hazard issue or the debt issue. If you ask me the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place...

[@darylfoster7944]

@@nicholasstabile445 not if the Republicans keep control of the Senate.

[@nicholasstabile445]

@@darylfoster7944 and if they do? What happens?

[@ajkfa1]

If Republicans keep control you will see gridlock with Republicans focusing on the deficit/debt levels. If it tanks economy it won’t matter cuz it’ll be made to be Biden’s fault. This has all happened before.

[@nicholasstabile445]

@@ajkfa1 thats certainly a possibility....however even Trump is screaming for more stimulus. There’s tremendous pressure for a spending package. If they don’t pass one, you’re looking at the greatest depression in history. Talking starvation. Even republicans will be on the hook for passing it in the senate.

[@Alberta1stPodcast]

I love the milk shake man

[@caroledoerr6872]

They are going to finish the transfer of wealth through taxes to pay for all of this financialization of the government and the economy.

[@nicholasstabile445]

Inventory is low?? Hope he’s not talking about real estate in Manhattan. Commercial real estate is more than available and so are apartments. Yet prices remain steady.

[@lindab1859]

Thanks JB. Hi Aaron.

[@geoffmtchell9603]

What about technology being a deflationary force in the long term?

[@FabiWann]

Take the last 100 years of tech advancement. Have you seen any deflation? You can get deflation with gold and silver as money, not with FIAT coupon trash paper.

[@carlkligerman1981]

This entire, and seemingly interminable argument about inflation will always be an issue of definition. I think the heart of the matter lies with how we define value. Or, rather, the urgent need for all us all to redefine how we grasp the notion of value. We need a new toolkit, new levers to progress both our understanding of economics and how it frames policy. Think of any field of human endeavour making use of axioms that are more than two hundred years old. If a scientist or doctor were to do that we would think it nonsense and call them a lunatic. But economics seems to get a pass. When an economy becomes too top heavy it becomes unstable, and we are watching that play out. The rest is brass on the titanic.

[@tipr8739]

Also the avg. iq in technology advanced nations is dropping. Geniuses are dropping. The high tech revolution is not sustaining itself with the “next generation”

[@Mike-dd8bd]

@@FabiWann I don`t think the modern world can run on gold/silver backed currencies though.

[@Budzyoner]

Hey real vision, will you have Martin north from walk the world? Thanks

[@chrissain1083]

+ 1 7 0 5 2 3 0 8 8 6 0.

[@ChuckOriley]

Loved this one...kinda bridges the van metre/schiff gap

[@ChuckOriley]

Eh s'scam

[@adamc2320]

A bit skeptical of the 4% inflation target for next year. With low interest rates hurting margins and tens of million of Americans either not paying rent or in mortgage forbearance, can we really expect banks to want to lend?

[@sivi9741]

government will make huge stimulus again and again , creating inflation since the banks don’t want to create money by lending . So government will lend (helicopter money) themselves.

[@adamc2320]

Under current laws any new stimulus has to be financed with debt (bonds) which is deflationary in the long term. They can change the laws but it would mean completely eliminating the federal reserve which is a giant step. Would also like to add that I think most people in Congress recognize that hyperinflation is far worse than deflation.

[@emileboudreau8312]

Great to see you Brent I hope you guys are doing Well thinking about milk shake theory keep it up I had a feeling usd would fall after election. To offset the rate in US dollar I invested in Canadian gold mine companie listed in cad and us so I manage the Currencie movement better AEM is my Play

[@hckytwn3192]

Doesn’t Cryptocurrency blow up this whole plan? Not a single mention of that in this entire video.

[@Lucas3055]

Cheers from Lisbon, just subscribed

[@mrnegative48]

that was mind blowing but i still think there is a problem with getting the middle and lower classes spending money, id certainly listen to another 2-3hrs worth

[@narwhaltacos2197]

Great score for RV. This is a Deep dive, but excellent. I now have a new Economist to add to my Sexiest Economists of 2021 calendar. So cheers for that!

[@sandymilne224]

The premise that inflation will come needs to come with a question. That is, with all the money printing and borrowing going on... will all this come with higher taxes? If it does, then that is a drain on the economy. Additionally, the baby boomers are not spending. That’s deflationary. From the ’street’, it appears that we have monetary inflation, but wage and price deflation. We also have asset inflation when money printing debases the currency, and with zero based interest rates it doesn’t pay having cash, hence there is asset inflation. It could very well be that Biden increases wages, but with household debts so high, even higher wages won’t translate into higher spending. It will be used to pay down debt. Hence my guess is that we are heading into ‘Stagflation’ and not inflation. Allen Greenspan believes that. What do you guys think about that thinking?

[@zubstep]

Sounds about right, but I am betting on the stagflation being of a highly uneven character. Some industries are going to continue to do very well, like semiconductors and defense. The latter I anticipate will do well because of increasing geopolitical instability amid the standoff b/w China and the US. The former should be obvious, for data centers demand growth as well as high margin 5g smartphones and other luxury electronics. Regarding wages specifically, higher average wages could occur via minimum wage laws but that will drag unemployment further and be harmful to small business, most acutely in less economically developed areas where that minimum price on labor is higher relative to local price levels. This wage policy could also be interpreted as, or genuinely motivated by, an effort to punish political opposition because of the greater economic harm inflicted upon rural areas via unemployment, but I digress; the main point is a vision of a very uneven stagflation where both policy and market factors play a role in driving large disparities.

[@samueldrzymala9108]

@20:11: The Central Bank lending program they're talking about is going to be canceled by the Republican Party. The latest version of the stimulus package deal ends the program. That means DEFLATION.

[@snowbound1238]

Did i hear right? Cap day will force institutions to buy debt, so those institutions will have to sell equities? Isnt that deflationary?

[@blakehiggins8509]

This conversation is the best articulated representation of the current zeitgeist. Understand this and move your capital accordingly.

[@rsnewsome7073]

Lot's of thoughts around the Cap Day discussion. While the Fed can cap rates on long term Treasury bonds, they can't control lending spreads. While we have been in a declining inflation environment for decades, once the trend in inflation turns structurally upwards, I would bet that the inflation component of the lending spread will become a more crucial (and significant) component. Questions include at what level does the Fed cap long term rates? At 1%? If at 2% or higher, could our over-leveraged economy withstand that increase? What would the non-bank financials (who have been driving the increase in the economy's leverage levels) do if inflation really does shoot up to 4%? Would they continue to lend at a level below where they lose purchasing power on their invested capital? And if non-bank financials decide to stop lending (and maybe decide to become gold miners), would commercial banks be able to absorb the trillions of existing debt that will need to be refinanced? Will all commercial banks lend money at a negative real rate, or would they just fold long before their equity value evaporates? Lot's of questions, no easy answers but most certainly a very bumpy road ahead. Thank you for the video, and thank you Mr. Napier for sharing your thoughts.

[@ratfacekick]

Should have asked this guy to explain Japan since 1990

[@PeterProf7777]

Debt financed by increasing the monetary base through the Fed or through the commercial banks using the fractional reserve banking system always creates inflation. It is part of the Quantity Theory of Money M * V = P * Y. When asset values go up, it is inflation. When real estate values go up, it is inflation. Even if prices don't go up but stay the same, it is inflation and that is because the natural consequence of an expanding economy is deflation. That is because you are increasing aggregate supply as the economy grows. You need to look at the data from the 19th century in the U.S. It was a century in general of deflation! The only debt that does not create inflation is non-bank loans. If I lend my money to my friend, that does not create inflation. All the rest is inflationary and then is the prelude to a deflationary bust when loans get paid back or go into default . The boom and bust cycles is 100% man made and totally avoidable.

[@migueis007]

Can you help me to understand what would be a safe option in that scenario ? holding cash ?

[@radeque]

Great interview

[@ceegee4875]

Increasing debt on the balance sheet while not creating new money is indeed deflationary. Man that situation sounds familiar...

[@chrissain1083]

+ 1 7 0 5 2 3 0 8 8 6 0 .

[@chriskenney4377]

I'm wondering what happens with Zombie companies. Will all this money keep them alive?

[@peterwilson9327]

it keeps them 'undead"

[@chriskenney4377]

@@peterwilson9327 Too bad. Some things need to die.

[@oldkingcole7443]

So i learned CB goes Brrrrrrrrr

[@sampyter]

Those boomer moments when the windows firewall sounds in the middle of the conversation.

[@carllowegren431]

This is Quality!

[@mutantryeff]

State Capitalism versus Free Capitalism

[@sirjamesgray]

Marxism Leninism vs Capitalism, you mean

[@hoangnguyen511]

Where can i find (subscribe) Russell’s work?

[@JB026]

Awesome interview, ty

[@ppralev]

Once again Peter Schiff was right!

[@peterpeeters9599]

Great interview!

[@NormBa]

Oh no. Just when I was acclimating to the minority deflationist position of the Hunt-Snider-Van Metre camp. Can we just toss a silver Liberty and call it a day?