The Math behind Flattening The Curve of the Coronavirus / Covid-19

[@lunaticnomad0]

Even Turkish can't explain how much I love your videos!

[@TheTaylorSeries]

Thank you. :)

[@RalphInRalphWorld]

This is great! I wish more sources explained it like this.

[@TheTaylorSeries]

Me too. I think it's especially important right now, too, that people know what's going on so they can make solid choices.

[@nuriocristino2888]

You might not have noticed but the background music has a high pitched triangle sound (easy to miss unless you are sensitive to high pitches), played a few times in a row every once in a while, that made it a bit hard to understand and focus on what you were saying at certain points (especially when you were quieter). It was just a little bit annoying (only had to rewind a couple times, nothing major) but perhaps don't use that particular piece in future videos, or filter out the higher pitches if you really want that piece playing in the background. It would make for a much better experience for some without changing it at all for the rest. Just something to keep in mind. Anyway, great video and keep up the good work!

[@TheTaylorSeries]

Gah. I must have used the wrong file. I actually went through and suppressed that ... but it does me no good if I don't use it. Thanks for poitning it out!

[@nuriocristino2888]

@@TheTaylorSeries Honest Mistake, really. Glad to be of service!

[@MusicForMedia]

Please note that the main backing music for this video was actually composed by myself. Neil Cross had been granted permission to disseminate some of my music tracks a number of years ago, but he is not the original composer. This track and others can be found at www.audiosparx.com/petergodfrey.

[@DamnThisNick]

one of the best explanations out there!

[@TheTaylorSeries]

Thanks! :)

[@GeoscienceImaging]

Another problem, however, is that flattening the curve takes a very long time. That means continued economic hardship, which will crush many people and their jobs and businesses. It's not clear how long this is going to take, or if we can make it that long.

[@TheTaylorSeries]

You are quite right. This is not something I addressed in the video, but it's very true that the tradeoff is happening. It ... sucks. :(

[@cherylmcd8683]

Would love to know your thoughts, looking back

[@moiquiregardevideo]

This video should be played on CNN news so that people can understand the "why" not just the "what" to do.

[@kathybassage4576]

Great info and video! Thanks :)

[@victord091885]

Great video!

[@vtbhoward]

So if I understand correctly, the flattening has to do with slowing things down and allowing things to be more manageable by hospitals basically? Secondly, does flattening the curve means decreased overall cases of death, or just that incidences of death has become more spreaded out, slowed, delayed over time? It seems that the cases of death will inevitably end up the same at the end of this deal, despite flattening the curve....

[@TheTaylorSeries]

Yes to the first question; that's basically it. To the second, by not overwhelming the system, you push down the number of people that die who otherwise might have lived if they'd had access to the resources they needed. There's more, but that's it in broad strokes.

[@erik-ic3tp]

Thanks for this video from the Netherlands in lock down.

[@TheTaylorSeries]

Same here. Be safe!

[@silvergrin5000]

Abstinence is the flattest curve of all!

[@TheTaylorSeries]

The flatting

[@silvergrin5000]

@@TheTaylorSeries fattening the curve might also apply

[@fssocrates]

You have a great voice!

[@andreare7766]

A little note on the video editing: quite often you add written notes to your videos, but they stay on for far too little time I can hardly ever read them. Not just this video, but in general. I know that to the video editor it seems that they have been on for a very long time because you know what they say, but for those who have never read them before, they remain a mystery. Great video, though.

[@TheTaylorSeries]

Thank you for the feedback; that's actually a good point. I will keep that in mind going forward!

[@АлиАлиев-э3п9ф]

If the amount of sick people is less, then the virus will lasts on for a long time? And if there are lots of sick people, so it means increasing of dangerous(lethal) cases?

[@TheTaylorSeries]

More or less. We are basically trying to buy time.

[@silvergrin5000]

It's one simple model; theoretically it is possible to actually stop the spread entirely and have the disease die out, or at least reduce the overall case number if you reduce the spread enough. But that's a lot harder to account for and adds a lot of dubious variables to model. Right now this is transmissible and widespread enough that we are assuming it will not die out any time soon (if ever) - it could become another nasty cold/flu that circulates. SARS (another coronavirus) did die out but it was harder hitting so got passed around less.

[@TheTaylorSeries]

@@silvergrin5000 Just so!

[@Michael-cg7yz]

Oh yeah I've been waiting for this; By the way, Italy surpassed china in the amount of cases roughly a 10k difference now

[@andreare7766]

That is not quite true. NOW they have not more cases, but in China there have had many many more cases (for now...)

[@Michael-cg7yz]

@@andreare7766 You'd rather not have this debate with me because I monitor the situation everyday. There's a difference between cumulative cases and active cases. In China, there's 81052 cumulative cases, but if we subtract the deaths and the recovered total we can get the number of active cases (Which is only 9045) In Italy, there's 23073 *active* cases. Actually, even Iran surpassed China. In Iran, there's 9142 active cases. What do you even mean? I'm sure you can compare that: Italy (23073) > Iran (9142) > China (9045) In fact, cumulative cases for *the world* are 182413, which is the number that media will probably tell you. But, world *active* cases are just a measly 95826, just 52.5% of that amount.

[@andreare7766]

I know that Italy has more active cases, but that's hardly surprising as China started earlier. At the end of all this we'll see who has had the dubious honour of having the most cases. (My original message wasn't very clear. I have edited it slightly now ;) )