The Odds of Life and Intelligence

[@CoolWorldsLab]

Thanks so much for watching everyone, make sure to like/share/subscribe if you enjoyed this! This has been a major research effort over the last year and I'm thrilled to finally share it with you. We have so many other exciting projects on the horizon but only so much in the way of research resources to pursue these thrilling ideas. If you want to support our research, you now can through the Columbia Just Giving platform - www.coolworldslab.com/support - thanks for anything you can do to help us unravel the Universe's secrets!

[@MB-xo2lx]

Are the Greys gonna colonize us using GMO bees or black goo such as in the X-Files?

[@Tjalfe20]

Excellent effort, and a great example of how Bayesian statistics allows to get a lot from a little. I was a bit confused during reading the paper as "T" is overloaded in "Adopted Values for the Observational Data", being simultaneously 4.408 Gy and 5.304 Gy - Perhaps this is down to the web publishing? I'd be interested in knowing how your model would take to followup evidence - Suppose we detect non-intelligent life on some other world a time t2 after its last sterilizing event, what would that imply for the odds of slow versus fast intelligence as a function of t2? What if the detection is of intelligent life?

[@maddman4747]

pure conjecture.. the arrogance of man, and his ability to tell great stories.. hear we go again.. care to play.?

[@MountainMetal]

Thank-you, sir. Can't even put words to my appreciation.

[@พฤหัสบดี-ฦ1ว]

@BLAIR M Schirmer Maybe the Great Spark (great name btw) is not what we think it is...maybe that spark is a low-probability sequential and well timed narrow process within an already existing abiogenesis...what if it had to happen in a very specific order at a very specific time, while of course benefiting from the specifics of an all relatively stable stellar environment....? Life is the template and intelligent life its unlikely and immensely rare by-product. I don't know.

[@88888888tiago]

This channel is a gold nugget on KZbin. Such interesting content.

[@TheExoplanetsChannel]

True

[@MisterXdotcom]

Feeling when you discover this channel must be the same as when we discover life itself in another planet :)

[@bunkerbuster6729]

Aye! 🙂

[@timothykieper]

​@@bunkerbuster6729 Great video ! Except perhaps were it was alluded to the fact the Bill Nye is a scientist? He just pretends to be one on a children's TV show.

[@PrincipalSkinner3190]

Also check out Isaac Arthur and Event Horizon.

[@genelowe7209]

How lucky are we to live in an era when a mind such as David's is but a click away!!!

[@shrikantagrawal6923]

Let's apply Bayesian statistics to find out.!! :D

[@CALCOBRA94]

Gene Lowe amen

[@raytracer2651]

I really shouldn't be here.

[@Subject18]

He is truly a genius

[@callumthompson4628]

Unlucky*

[@natemododragon9969]

I can’t even begin to tell you how, first off, fantastic this man is. This is a college professor explaining the universe to you. That in itself is a phenomenal fact. Secondly, he’s doing it on KZbin, which means one of two things. Either he wants to spread this knowledge to the masses, appreciating the thought of the knowledge itself, or he wants his work and research out in the masses. Either way it’s a fantastic thing. Maybe he just has fun doing it, but I’d like to think otherwise 😁 but the man cites his sources and provides the formulas as well. So remarkable!

[@jamieconnor3505]

Bro also wants AdSense

[@jonathanmartin7287]

@@jamieconnor3505 absence

[@BBCBOY919]

@@jamieconnor3505HAHAHA yes, this is actually the ONLY reason he is doing this🧐

[@patrickflinn5432]

The rigorous qualification of most claims in your videos is extremely refreshing. So many arguments in popular media are based on absolutes that this is a remarkable deviation from the vast majority of communication, including science communication. Thank you for the excellent content Dr. Kipping.

[@ButterflyAngle12]

I've only watched this video about 10 times. I imagine that I'll be here another 10 times as well. Thanks for all the arguing points Cool Worlds. You guys help me look and feel a little smarter then i really am to my friends and loved ones.

[@AnthonyIlstonJones]

The fact you're drawn to this suggests you've only scratched the surface of your intelligence.

[@rmcgraw7943]

LOL

[@robertwieczorek5838]

Strange, I forgot I watched this 1 year ago and now my opinion has changed

[@vladbcom]

On an off chance, do check that you've not left loop playback ON... /s

[@leandrox1]

One of the mistakes of our antropomorphism is that we think that evolution YES or YES led to intelligence...and this is not true...in 600 millions of years of animals evolution on Earth,intelligence (to a grade of civilization type) just happened once...with humans...(we can assume that dolphins or cephalopods also have some type of intelligence but not to human level or capable to form civilizations)... For example...Dinosaurs as species run the planet during 180 millions years...even so the dino most intelligent,doesnt was smarter than an actual chicken... Dinos evolved in thousands of ways,on air,land and water...but never evolved to understand a diferencial equation,because basically evolution doesnt lead to intelligence as final result...intelligence is just a subproduct of evolution... I intuitively end with the concept of common life-uncommon intelligence...we could talk about the asteroid and dinosaurs 60 millions of years ago,and other extintions that led to mammals and eventualy to humans...a russian rulet en many case our human existence... we only need to go 70 thousands years in the recent past,a volcano erupted...a hard climate change that almost lead to the extincion of human race...only a hundred or maybe a thousands of human individuals survived...of a population of hundred of thousands...we were closed to total desimation,and humans 70 thousands ago were more or less as smart as us... And what would had happened if those humans disappeard...nothing...the life on the planet would continued normally...its not that humans would had been replaced by other smart mammal...not necesarely...chimpanzees,that are our most close relative...are smart,but not to human level... Someone can say "hey,evolution need intelligence species because who gonna build rockets to abandon the planet and colonize other places???"...well,nature have a response to this Panspermia...living thing travelling on meteorites from planet to planet to other planet systems eventualy (as Oumuamua and Borisov as showed)... So,intelligence its not the pinnacle of evolution...just a subproduct that can or not happen...because evolution not need it in ultimate instance...

[@philipwalton4877]

If this guy was my teacher when I was in school I would never of bunked off so much.. what a genius

[@DarkWildSaison]

*would never HAVE bunked. You’re welcome, Grammar Nazi

[@jonathanmartin7287]

Smoking weed is important

[@LazySillyDog]

I really do think if I had better teachers I would have done much better in school/collage. Everything turned out well for me thankfully, but it was only bc of a lot of hard work and perseverance. I can't imagine what could have happened had I had someone like him as a teacher

[@MJS_1990]

i love and appreciate that this man doesn't talk to his subscribers and viewers like they're uneducated children, his videos are so interesting and they just pull you in like a trance. another wonderful video, great job 👍

[@aaronaragon7838]

He doesn't bother talking to guys in a trance...

[@rajashreekhalap12]

This is the first time I've heard such a thoughtful, logical, carefully-argued answer to this question. Next time someone asks what I 'believe' about alien life I'll show them this video. Thank you for your wonderful outreach work.

[@dennisd7668]

Even at rare that still would leave billions of planets with life It’s debatable about intelligence since is a whale intelligent? Life is out there like it or not, will we ever meet them who knows the distance is vast, debate all you want we are not alone. We think we understand the universe we don’t know shit, until we really get out there we won’t.

[@MF-LXRD]

This isn't an answer to the question to whether we are alone or not. We will never know until we make contact there's no evidence yet to either outcome.

[@williamkacensky1069]

@@MF-LXRD There is plenty of evidence, is you are serious enough to look at reliable sources. This might change your opinion, that indeed this planet is being visited from another life form.

[@dronesightingsmith3979]

He is asked if he believes alien life exists and dodges directly answering yes or no. Did you even watch the video?

[@darlenesmith5690]

@@dennisd7668 His analysis here is based on an Earth like planet around a Sun like star. These are extremely rare in the rest of the galaxy. Not that they are needed, but a non-totally hostile environment is needed. For example, nearly 60% of stars are in the core of the galaxy where radiation levels should preclude life. Nearly 85% of stars are red dwarfs where planets in the goldilocks zone should be tidally lock (rare chance of life) and red dwarfs sporadically have huge amounts of solar activity which should remove atmospheres (again, rare chance of life). Nearly 85% of star system in our galaxy have 2 or more stars, again rare chance of life due to planetary orbital instability. There are hundreds more different ways that the galaxy is hostile to life. The galaxy (and presumably the universe) is deadly to life. Extremely deadly. We just happen to sit out in a calm galactic arm with a calm star, a good orbit for life, and many other factors in our favor. Based on our knowledge, intelligent life here was an extremely rare fluke. Even a few billion safe stars in our galaxy probably indicates some chances for life, but intelligent life is an entirely different story. The cooling of our planetary core took so long that simple multicellular life only occurred about 1 billion years ago out of the 4+ billion years that Earth has existed.

[@MrAXDM]

Your video re-inspired my imagination and made me think of these more fundamental factors rather than just basing my assumptions for the existence of life on the huge amount of stars out there in the universe. I look forward to reading your paper!

[@onetickpulse4398]

You’ve really outdone yourself with this video Prof. Kipling. This channel feels like a pioneer that paves the way for all future space related exploration. Thank you!

[@TheExoplanetsChannel]

:)

[@MOFFS]

Mate. Your videos are unreal. I listen to you every night when falling asleep and you feed a curiosity in my brain. Thanks for making such good content.

[@MrAKG500]

Dude your videos are so awesome. For the past couple months I’ve been getting more and more and more interested in space and just everything about it and just how mind bendingly insane space actually is. Its so awesome to have people like you who know so much to be able to learn from. Keep making videos man love it

[@N.M.E.]

I was literally just watching this video when a science journal i read here in Germany notified me on my phone about this new study using Bayesian statistics to determine the probabilities of life and intelligence by a certain David Kipping... Sadly they didn't link this Video :D Keep it up professor! You and your channel are a true gem on KZbin

[@PixelPhobiac]

Hahaha nice What are the odds?

[@macbuff81]

I like the concept of incorporating human bias into the equation. Also, it's very cool that you bring in your young lab assistant into your work in a playful manner. She must be quite proud of her teacher and educator. You must also be quite proud of her. Maybe she will be inspired to become a scientist, educator and/or artist herself when she grows up. Should I ever become a father myself, I certainly would want to have moments like this. Passing on the passion for learning and curiosity I think is one of the most important and beautiful things in life

[@joshuagharis9017]

💯 Absolutely 💯. One of the hardest, best jobs being a parent. David seems like he'd be a fantastic father

[@joshuagharis9017]

The window only closes unless we engineer the sun, or sling the earth outward? (Another great video)

[@ruaridhsaluki1526]

My day just got a load better seeing you posted. Love it all. Your voice is akin to Attenborough. Very calming

[@jaredticer6255]

Yea he could definitely narrate some nature or space documentaries.

[@TheExoplanetsChannel]

Same

[@dannydonovan8086]

This not absolutely knowing is fascinating. How much we just don’t know boggles the brain . Can’t get enough of the theorising and love these videos.. thanks to the people that have put in the work producing these ...👏👏

[@ambsemlay]

i’ve watched a lot of content speculating on intelligent life existing elsewhere and i can say with my whole heart that this is the first video i’ve seen that gave me some new, fresh insight into the matter. really appreciate all the hard work you put in over at cool worlds

[@louiscypher6772]

The thing that has always annoyed me Is that everyone! Assumes that life needs the same conditions to exist.

[@poobrainsmellypants1]

Louis Cypher Yep! We adapted and evolved to our environment, it wasn’t created for us. No such thing as Goldilocks zones or the need for water to exist as if life is common it may mean that other life forms have evolved to withstand much higher/lower temps or are not even carbon based, gas breathing life forms. We only need to look at the bottom of our own oceans for evidence of this! I think this same thing all the time.

[@sirsia1st]

@@poobrainsmellypants1 www.mit.edu/people/dpolicar/writing/prose/text/thinkingMeat.html

[@semugenyilatif8708]

It's as well hard to think of..

[@user-hh2is9kg9j]

Well, we have 20+ different environments in our solar system. How many lives adapted to any of them? Where are the lives that adapt to the sulphuric oven conditions in Venus? or the freezing CH4 lakes on Titan? What that tells us is that there are very few suitable environments for life and probably only one environment that life can adapt to.

[@AnthonyIlstonJones]

@@sirsia1st the original web.archive.org/web/20190501130711/www.terrybisson.com/theyre-made-out-of-meat-2/

[@sapphiresupernova]

I literally have no head for numbers as I have dyscalculia, but I am so glad that this channel explains physics and stats without being condescending about it. I'm definitely more of a biology minded person since I was a forestry wildlife management major in college, and xenobiology has always been fascinating to me. I do think there's other life out there, but I don't think we'll ever come in contact with it. It's sad to think about, but I also think it means we should take better care of this bubble we have because when they come across us, we'll probably be long gone, and we should leave behind something to be proud of. And also cat memes. Leave behind cat memes.

[@Vaccticuz]

Your way of conducting real research, simplifying it for us mortal men and then sharing it in the best visual way possible. I think you found a way to shift the way how science should be conducted. Just think if every professor in the world had the possibility with funds, to spend time on subjects they find interesting and conducted real research, simply it, and then illustrate it and share it for everyone to see, just like you do here and have been doing for years now. I believe the world would look very different and in a positive way. Thank you and much love!

[@mikejones-vd3fg]

so yas saying we shouldnt learn ta read, let the preacher man tell us whats what in that there bible and all will be well huh?

[@k-doggy1762]

This may just be my favourite science channel on KZbin! Thank you so much for you work 🙏

[@bazzery8414]

Giggity

[@damore_]

Hey, I just wanted to let you know that your voice is so soothing, and when you talk about the wondrous enigma of space, it puts me to sleep. Thank you!

[@arturor.1386]

Finally, I've been waiting for a new episode. Professor please keep them coming. Your channel brings me great insight on cool new worlds. Thanks

[@jlwilder8436]

Didn't you watch the one about the formation on the Earth? It was very recently made and very well done, with ever second a massive amount of years passing.

[@raphizz338]

I just finished reading a wonderful book : the Einstein Enigma. This is one of the topic of this book and I recommend it to everyone !

[@JarodM]

Thanks for the recommendation~👍

[@mariodasilva8729]

Your channel happens to be the easiest to listen to, with being under isolation at home, not from going out endangering our families. Thanks for these productions!

[@ZA56AA]

Nice job David. First time this hypothesis is being supported statistically and i would say quantitatively rather than the usual qualitatively method.

[@michaelmoore7975]

But there is an issue he doesn't make clear: *Drakes Equation does not factor the entire Universe. It factors **_only_** the Milky Way Galaxy. It also factors **_out all life except_** intelligent communicative civilizations.*

[@DrTubeman]

Thanks, Doc Kipp, damn I wish I had someone like you as my professor during my education.

[@w0mblemania]

An excellent video. Thank you. IMO, the difference in time between the start of simple life, and consciousness, really does strongly indicate that we have grossly underestimated the difficulty in life becoming sentient. i.e. We are in a so-called goldilocks zone, yet sentient life took the entire age of the universe to arise on this planet. Even worse: we have a narrow window until the evolution of the sun makes sentient life here almost impossible. My guess is that simple life is probable throughout the universe, but sentience is exceedingly, vanishingly rare. We should never expect to see it within our lifetime, within our light bubble.

[@jaylucas8352]

The question he asks is wrong. The question should be what is the mechanism that spreads life through the universe, once it’s developed once, can spores, survive space and propagate life . If so, then the equation is far more simple to achieve life

[@w0mblemania]

@@jaylucas8352 That's only for simple life. Sentient life is likely to be an incomprehensibly more unlikely result. We could have a galaxy full of amoeba, but still have no sentient life. The "equation" is unhelpful because we don't know the constants or variables. It's all guesses.

[@JamesV1]

Thanks, your videos are incredibly informative and I hope you become one of the big great science channels on this platform!

[@disruptivetimes8738]

Yes, his approach is quite unique. Its really almost like art the way the videos and themes are composed.

[@vladbcom]

16:30 My heart literally melted into the keyboard as I type this

[@adlwilliams]

Only thing broader than the universe is this dudes impressive jawline

[@fl2660]

And check out that stylin' cardigan!

[@jonp3890]

Is that a PRS you’re playing?

[@JonSmith-cx7gr]

His chin, like the universe, is constantly expanding..

[@stephenhunter7260]

lol

[@tyabbott2644]

He can totally "big bang" my wife anytime his heart so dires

[@DARTHNEWS]

Faith is all we have man. Nothing is set in stone

[@marcuswieland3927]

Great work for both: the paper and the video. Can't wait to see what comes next. Best regards from Germany and Italy.

[@sawzall666]

Thanks for posting these videos up I absolutely love them they definitely make the day go by. Thanks for your hard work @cool worlds!

[@siavashsepantman]

stay safe professor, we need you to talk to us in english 😆 explaining complicated formulas with warm and charming voice and patience, thank you professor david kipping.

[@TheExoplanetsChannel]

:)

[@HighMojo]

This has got to be the most depressing channels on YT. When I'm feeling depressed, I watch this channel and find out that whatever it was that was depressing me is nothing compared to this. So it immediately cheers me up. Figures.

[@chaseniwa7971]

honestly your my new bedtime jam. your voice is so soothing

[@280SE]

Dark5 who?! 😂

[@Brian.001]

Your = You're

[@Boris_Chang]

The universe might be teeming with life, even intelligent life. But the odds of meeting up with intelligent life in another star system are probably close to nil due to the propensity for intelligent life (judging by intelligent life on earth) of destroying the planet’s ability to sustain life due to over-exploitation of resources, destruction of the environment, and overpopulation. That happening before they are able to achieve interstellar travel seems a plausible outcome.

[@spartan11payne]

That is already placing increasing anthropocentric expectations on alien civilizations. Just as life elsewhere would be nothing like life here, I would bet intelligence there would also be much different than it is here.

[@Boris_Chang]

Good points indeed. Evolution on other life-bearing planets may have led to mental realization early on that industrial and scientific progress need to be carefully tempered by cautiousness regarding potential negative ramifications of new technologies and such. Perhaps those mental predilections toward greed and overconsumption and carelessness about waste products, have been eliminated via mental evolution. With the billions of possible places organic life might have developed, as well as civilizations that crossed the so-called AI singularity and evolved into hybrid or possibly completely electro-mechanical existence, then the so-called “goldilocks zone” may be irrelevant. Ergo, make that trillions of possible home worlds for life in the universe-this universe!! All sorts of possibilities, and I agree that to judge the potential for alien life to have evolved enough to have achieved super-luminal space travel capability without creating the destructive side effects as we are familiar with here on earth-to arrive at any conclusions based on the logical assertion I made previously-is a biased assertion at best.

[@plantfuelled8912]

My own theory is that there are many intelligent forms of alien life, but they live too far away and they are too adapted to their biosphere to be interested in ours. Pathogens, wrong levels of gases, wrong kinds of light that could cause cancer, gravity to little or too much all make our world uninhabitable for most others.

[@2020Twenty]

Why do you believe that?

[@ShamballaStyles]

I am so grateful that David shares his knowledge and is such a good teacher. I cannot get of space, the unknown and psychics. I am like a sponge that just wants more and more. For someone like him with such a great gift to share is beautiful. Thank you for such great content

[@stiopaodo]

"Life Looks for Life"

[@Mike-be7uk]

What happens when life finds life? Might not be pretty

[@systemicchaos3921]

Does it though? If life is common it might be considered uninteresting by advanced civilisations. There may be all sorts of exotic physics and technology to keep them interested.

[@AnthonyIlstonJones]

@@systemicchaos3921 I see this happening, in fact it might have already happened.... web.archive.org/web/20190501130711/www.terrybisson.com/theyre-made-out-of-meat-2/

[@Mike-be7uk]

@JustJitzu and there it is. Something springing from the vacuum and dissapearing again.

[@nicolasuribestanko]

@@systemicchaos3921 Look at it this way.... an extremely advanced civilization will have unlocked every last secret that physics and technology have to offer. Quantum mechanics to them would be like arithmetic to us. So what do they do then? Go looking for other life forms in the universe! (Their curiosity is what let them become advanced in the first place. ) We may not be that interesting, but we're the only game in town. Even very intelligent people love watching goldfish, so we just might be putting on an amusing show for somebody!

[@davidstuart4489]

I love that you address this question and advance your ideas on the subject. As you mention, we all, to one degree or another, noodle on the same question. I'm 69 years old and a retired Chief Engineer. I've contemplated this question as far back as I can recall, and I understand the use of math to attempt to guide us to an answer. But I think we get too far ahead of ourselves in all cases. I believe we have to start with "first principles" and define, precisely, what we mean when we say "life", and "intelligent life" or "intelligence." We know, for instance, that crows, dolphins, Orcas, and other lifeforms are "intelligent", even though they don't make fire, wheels, clothing, etc. We also know that humans that do make fire, wheels, and clothing are not necessarily the most "intelligent" members of our species. Our species has relied upon a relatively miniscule number of conspecifics to lead us in the development of technologies, while the rest of us manufacture or reproduce the inventions of others. So - what, exactly, are we looking for when we ask "are we alone?" Until we put a lot more detail to answering that question, it's all specious. Once we HAVE put far more thought and detail into what we seek, let's look at the probability of its occurance on Earth - exclusively. Let's look at the probability that out of 500 million sperm cells at 1 point in time with 1 particular female we would get an Einstein. What is the probability that we would get an Einstein, a Bohr, a Heisenberg, or even you or I, given approximately 120 billion humans having lived on Earth and survived all manner of natural and man-made disasters. And if we look at all other lifeforms on Earth, it's not difficult to notice just how strange and rare we are. There are billions of animate species that have existed on Earth, and only 1 Homo sapien. Earth has experienced all of the influences detailed or implied by Darwin - Earth is not a controlled setting - it's chaotic. And out of that chaos we appear at a particular point in time that just happens to incubate us, and will never, ever occur again - even on Earth, and even though Earth meets all of the other coarse requirements for "life" (habitable zone, chemical composition, etc.). It is noteworthy that provably extinct species never re-emerge. If we eliminate entire species, they don't re-appear even though environmental conditions remain substantially the same. This argues strongly for the accidental nature of all forms of life. I would go so far as to hypothesize that while "life finds a way", it is unbiased in the form of life that arises. The life that arises is the life that is able to emerge and by the time it's gone the necessary preconditions no longer exist, even though at a macro scale, the changes are relatively small. And so, when entertaining this question, "Are we alone", perhaps we should first answer the question "Why are we alone right here on Earth? Why is there no emerging branch of homo sapien here? Why, out of the billions of life forms that have or currently inhabit Earth, are we the only one playing with fire, clothing ourselves, and zipping around in cars and spaceships?" (If that is what we mean by "intelligence", or "intelligent civilizations".) After 69 years, I believe our uniqueness right here on Earth is the best clue we have when peering into the cosmos. We ARE alone - right here on Earth. We are NOT commonplace, here on Earth. And the probability of you, or I, or any of us is so close to 0 (given the conditions that need to fall into place in order for a single sperm cell to find a single egg and begin the process of mitosis - generation after generation) that we also have to consider the probability that a species will survive environmental chaos and be able to produce an Einstein or two in order to cause their conspecifics to produce everything else necessary to create an "intelligent civilization." And, of course, we need to consider time and accept the fact that, while intelligent life may, or may have occurred elsewhere, it is highly unlikely that intelligent life crops up in sufficient chronological proximity to detect one another. I have so much more to say about this, just by looking at us on Earth - and this is written in haste. My apologies for that. Anyway - thanks for what you do, professor. Your videos are excellent and, along with Dr. Becky, I enjoy the education and discussion very much. Cheers!

[@ezrasteinberg2016]

One of the best science videos I've seen anywhere. Brilliant! Would love to see more explanation of Bayesian statistics with such astonishing clarity. :-)

[@jimlabbe8258]

This is brilliant. And let’s get busy investigating life in the outer solar system’s ocean moons so we can potentially get a second data point.

[@adamslosar2177]

Just found your channel. I love it. Love it!

[@CoolWorldsLab]

Welcome to Cool Worlds!

[@gabrielrogers2971]

Ugh I want you to teach me more ! Your thinking is so beautiful and your rational probability statistics make very reasonable sense

[@MaxHaydenChiz]

I finally got around to reading the paper and I have a question: can you generalize this to the galaxy itself? We know that the sun is among the earliest ~8% of stars of its type (G2V, population I / relatively high metallicity). And we know that no one has a ~200M year head start because we'd see some kind of galaxy-spanning civilization. Does this work using your same calculation or did I misunderstand something that keeps it from being generalized like this? And would doing a full Bayesian network MC simulation with *all* the drake equation factors be feasible? Would it be worthwhile? FWIW, I think it that the most ambiguous item is final part of the drake equation: the fraction of intelligent life that develops a technological civilization we can detect. Our own civilization got to this point by a long a sequence of apparent accidents. We don't really know how lucky or inevitable things like that are. So if you told me that the other factors mean we should be seeing tons of other intelligent life, my conclusion will be that our history has more luck and less inevitability. Is this last aspect something anyone has tried to quantify or otherwise make scientifically meaningful? I couldn't find anything, but I might not be doing the right searches since this isn't my field of scholarship.

[@cc-dtv]

>And we know that no one has a ~200M year head start because we'd see some kind of galaxy-spanning civilization. Nonsense, they could just decide expansion isn't worth it. Which, honestly, it kind of isn't, it's just more of the same. Vast, vast, vast distances. Why explore the universe if you could in theory, control your perception?> It would be much easier to alter your biology long before entering even a neighboring star system...

[@zzvyb6]

Just like Earth's population: Life is common. Intelligence is rare.

[@dumishaba7804]

How do you know that life is common in the universe?

[@wouter.d.h.]

@@dumishaba7804 ...

[@rifz42]

Are there any Sci-fi stories about how people would react if it was discovered that we are alone? anything can happen in sci-fi but I've never seen that.

[@chiefkief2579]

DMT.... forget the stories live it and experience it

[@prototropo]

There was an episode of Twilight Zone, I think, or perhaps Outer Limits?, that realistically depicted “the last man on Earth.” I forget how he came to be the only living being, but it was terrifyingly realistic.

[@nobytes2]

@@ekay4495 You need to reread the question. The question is asking if there are any shows that show how people would react if we're alone. In the Expanse is pretty much humans scattered all over the system and even alien life which doesn't fit into the initial question.

[@Pythoner]

Is it really possible to discover that though? How would you possibly prove that we are alone? It's incredibly difficult to prove some even much more simple things. In practice, we'd just constantly be searching.

[@rifz42]

@@Pythoner it's sci-fi, the impossible happens all the time.. I think it's something that hasn't been written about and it would be interesting.

[@BSsex]

Aww your lab assistant is adorable, you must be proud of her ^.^

[@MasterDk78]

hehe you can tell, a very warm dad

[@robertlipka9541]

... she seems to thoroughly enjoy her job. Nice to see.

[@donaldjohnson257]

@I Hate Toy Story 4.....she doesn't care what her dad is...he's her dad....she also doesn't care that he might be dead on to the greatest question of all...she has much more important things to do before bed time such as playing in the back yard with her friends....there are hundreds of things she wants to do tomorrow....but, if she doesn't get them done on time, well that's ok too...because she knows that she has forever to finish them....can you remember that feeling?

[@mgtowrules5702]

HIS KID IS ADORABLE. I AM SO ENVIOUS. I DON'T HAVE ONE. MY EX HAD OUR UNBORN CHILD ABORTED.. BECAUSE "IT IS HER BODY"

[@Kaplykos]

@@mgtowrules5702 that's tough man, sorry to hear that. Even if it's her body, you should have a voice in the argument too because the kid is also a part of you. I hope you get to have a healthy child someday that you can raise with all the love in the world

[@TheJosep70]

Until we find evidence, we're alone. And we may never find out. I know everyone thinks humanity's potential is limitless, but there are limits to the universe and thus limits to what humanity can achieve. Not to mention that intelligent life on Earth not only arose with the right conditions, but also after 5 mass extinctions. If any one of them hadn't happened, we wouldn't be here.

[@marioguti9887]

I would counter that those were the necessary conditions for intelligent life to start on Earth but how about in those countless exo planets elsewhere in the habitable zones around their stars? Personally, I believe the universe is teeming with life, intelligent life is a different matter but odds are in favor that if it happened on Earth, surely it can happen elsewhere. Maybe the massive distances is also a barrier for that intelligent life as it is for us too. There is probably a civilization on the other side of our own galaxy but the immense distances make it basically impossible to detect them, let alone make contact with them. Just a thought.

[@CaptainSaveHoe]

Humanity is wayyyy over optimistic vis-à-vis the universe, the harsh reality is that we will quickly face extinction just like all other species on earth soon faces, we can forget about the cosmos, there is utterly no hope, just look at how we struggle on a planet that has everything set up perfectly for us! But we think we can "conquer space"🤣🤣

[@ianharrison5758]

@@CaptainSaveHoe lmao ok. That’s very dramatic for no reason but I see your point. If we ever had self sustaining colonies in our solar system you’d need a solar system destroying event to make humanity go extinct. The more places humans can occupy, the less likely any one event could ever wipe us out. Have hope, the future isn’t lost yet

[@marveloussoftware4914]

Interstellar travel may be so impractical as to be impossible. Every warp engine requires negative energy, which if it existed, we wouldn't. So that means to would take thousands of years to go to the nearest planet. So you would need a lit of people to avoid inbreeding. The number to avoid that is 14,000. That would be impossible. So what would be the minimum? Maybe 1000? Then you need lots of water. No mater how good you recycle, it will never be 100% efficient. Then you need a machine shop for repairs that will be needed. Plus one ship is a single point of failure so how many? 5? 10? Going to another planet could be so expensive it may never be done. Then as we run out of resources it becomes even more expensive as people on earth go wothout. Maybe we never seen any aliens is because they cant go anywhere and we will just go extinct.

[@CaptainSaveHoe]

@@marveloussoftware4914 if you're gonna mention something as ridiculously impossible as warp engines, you might as well talk about suspended animation, or even transcendence out of our original biology, even those are FAR more probable than warp engine will ever be.

[@captaindaddy3038]

His voice is so soothing. It makes me sleepy

[@BroknStylus]

Really interesting analysis, thanks. Could it be considered that Fi might be very, very low based on the fact intelligence has only appeared a handful of times, if not just once, amongst the millions of evolutionary branches of Earth's "tree of life"?

[@Treviisolion]

In this case Fi is over the course of the entire history of Earth. There is some reason to believe that the chance of intelligence appearing goes up over time, as while it’s effectively impossible to have a civilization made up of bacteria, complex lifeforms can have intelligent civilization-building species arise amongst them, and the evolutionary advantage that intelligence provides ensures that more and more species will have the intelligence needed that making that final leap is not as difficult as the million years prior. If that is the case then we may just be the first civilization-building species to have arrived, and given another several ten million years, we could expect several more. The fact that we appear to be near the start of what we might expect to be an age of intelligence-dominated creatures, seems to indicate that it takes a while to get to here which is far more telling.

[@jakubklein]

Great analysis, thank you. I have been rewatching most of your content lately and it's even better on the second take. Furthermore, your conclusion "Life is common, intelligent life is rather rare" should be extended to many scenarios beside finding life in outer universe :)

[@OjisMagee]

"Only today, in my bath-robe with messed-up hair but still looking strikingly good, I'm gonna give you one."

[@highwaltage]

intelligent and humble. two things that always stand out when watching your videos. love it.

[@JGM0JGM]

Love the video... quick question... Have you considered that life might not be constrained to the type of life we see on Earth? Maybe life is possible under different chemistry... that would have an impact in the probability calculations, wouldn't it?

[@Eminar5]

It impacts the Drake equation when run, but shouldn't change the relative probabilities shown here.

[@JGM0JGM]

@@Eminar5 Why is "here" different from the Drake equation?

[@Eminar5]

​@@JGM0JGM He's shown that based on the data we currently have it make probabilistic sense to enter a high value for probability of life on habitable planets in the Drake equation. It doesn't matter what form life takes for this to be true. Depending on how you think about alternate biology you may however tweak your value for habitable planets in the Drake equation slightly, and possibly the probability of intelligence as well when life occurs (most likely lowering it, ours is the only biology we know can produce intelligence).

[@insertphrasehere15]

Good question. The short answer is that we don't know, but the long answer is that for terrestrial planets like ours, carbon based life seems like a near necessity. Life as we know it is very lucky that the key difference between Autotrophs (plants and cyanobacteria) and heterotrophs (consumers) is that one consumes Co2 and produces Oxygen, while the other consumes Oxygen and produces CO2. While you might argue that most alien biospheres should work this way, but might use a different pair of 'key molecules', ISNT IT LUCKY that One of these is a greenhouse gas and the other isn't? Not only that, but crucially, that the output gas of consumers is the greenhouse gas. If this wasn't the case, the biosphere would quickly destabilize itself. Snowball earth scenarios cut the number of autotrophs, and allow CO2 to build up, and warm the planet. While hothouse events warm the oceans, increasing autotroph activity and consuming all the available CO2 in the atmosphere. With a different set of molecules, this simply wouldn't be the case. In fact, CO2 is perhaps UNIQUELY qualified to fit this role for terrestrial planets, since it is the primary greenhouse gas (aside from water vapor) that is produced by volcanic activity and will naturally build up in the atmosphere over time (pulling the planet out of snowball earth scenarios). It isn't lucky that Oxygen and CO2 are the molecules that balance the metabolism of producers/consumers, it's a necessity to support the kind of stable temperature feedback loops that maintain a habitable world over the geologic timescales necessary for life to develop intelligence. All that said, in a planet in a different temperature regime (colder, most likely), there may be other similar feedback loops that may exist, for example with methane as the 'solvent'. The problem is, chemical reactions slow way down under colder conditions, which would slow the evolution of life and therefore decrease the chance of intelligent life evolving.

[@JGM0JGM]

@@insertphrasehere15 Great response, thanks. I did overlook the basic feedback loop that makes life possible.... If O2 producing bacteria hadn't evolved, the Earth would still be crawling only with anaerobic bacteria, and it is doubtful that intelligent life would evolve from such bacteria. I was also thinking about silicone as a base to replace carbon, but I think there aren't as many possibilities with silicone as there are with carbon for exchanging energy and for creating different biochemical process overall, so it is kind of discarded as an actual possibility. Maybe I've watched too many scifi movies and read to many books, but I can't help to think that the universe might surprise us in totally unexpected ways. Maybe a process that can generate life is possible in the atmosphere of giant gas planets for instance where a feedback loop might not be necessary...

[@yak2073]

Ah the never ending Story of live in the Universe^^ I want to believe it is out there! And I've got some Theories why we don't found them yet. 1. They don't want to discover because they know there is something out there you never make attentive on your Present. OK this is very unlikely but it's a possibility😉 2. We have them discovered (maybe for years) . Somthing like 6EQUJ5 or even we don't have identified it as such Signal. 3. They doesn't exist anymore because they terminate their selfes. 4. The Planet we found are great candidates for live maybe one Day but the live on this Worlds must be evolve. (like Snowball Earth for billions of years) And so on. What I'd like to do is: start some Missions to explore the best candidates in our homesystem. Like Europa, Mars, Enceladus and maybe Titan to search targeted for traces of life. and only for them. And if we find something we have an excellent evidence live is possible on Exoplanets. And if it intelligent we don't no BUT it is very likely there are out there. The live on Earth had been started on the same conditions. This was a great Video and I enjoy to read your Papers there helps me to understand somting more and giving me another perspective on many things👍😀 Great work

[@rossrobotics6342]

I agree. I have a few theories of my own. 1. There is intelligent life but it's so far away from us (ei, other side of the galaxy), that the chances of finding them is nil. 2. That we are not technologically or mentally advanced enough for them to make contact. (Star Trek based) Putting intelligence aside, I do believe that there are single cell organisms out there. But what's the chance of us actually finding them..?

[@AnthonyIlstonJones]

@@rossrobotics6342 Isn't there evidence of single-celled life in meteors that fall to Earth? It is not inconceivable that life didn't begin here at all.

[@dennisripley7529]

This has become my favorite channel on KZbin. I discovered this channel only 2 days ago.

[@kolafashoyin7270]

Thank you so much for this interesting research and presentation. One observation I have though is that there is no consideration for the position of the sun within the galaxy its located in Drake equation. It seems not all suns can support life as we know it even if it has planets in its habitable zone.

[@dawnhughes1707]

Im so glad y'all explain and break it down because im real curious but the stuff y'all do is just mind boggling and its so crazy how smart you are cuz thats mind boggling too lol!! But it's so fascinating and i love it!! So thank you.

[@TheExoplanetsChannel]

:)

[@lindagodi8146]

In a world where we have to explain that the earth is not flat about 15 times a day, this channel is a relief and a gem. Thank you.

[@bradriney919]

Agreed!

[@lappelduvide2946]

My definition of intelligent life is whenever a species has the ability to question it's own existence

[@jessty5179]

Yes, it's possible. But maybe there are no threshold ? Maybe intelligence start wit life and looks like an exponential curve ?

[@mrweasel]

Mine would be the capacity to learn. Questioning ones own existence is perhaps related to a certain degree of cognitive intelligence sure, but is hardly of functional value in and of itself.

[@prototropo]

The concept of zero, and by extension, oblivion or nonexistence, wins for me. What more bottomless profundity can there be, if not the alarming possibility of no-thing?

[@sirsia1st]

I'm personally going with, if said life can realize it lives on a planet and that there are other planets in the universe. That means we basically just got " intelligent" the last couple of decades. Who wants to contact beings that can't even fathom other planets? You might say, "Well ancient Greeks and Egyptians if told would be able to understand planets and orbits and stars. etc etc.. " But I think that their culture, society and science have to get to a point where they discover planets in other stars on their own. Sort of like the prime directive. Interfering in that and coming into contact before hand may not be for their own best interest.

[@them4309]

Makes sense. Life on Earth is common and thriving, but "intelligent" life only exists in one species.

[@MurpheeLaw]

"Life, finds a way..." When we talk about Complex organisms (like Humans) vs. single cell organisms, the more complex the organism, the longer it takes to evolve into what it has become. OK. When life happens, and which turns out is really easy, because all of Organic Life is based on the most common elements in the Universe, which makes sense when you combine them in a soupy atmosphere and water and ad electricity like from Lightning, which is fairly common on any planet with a significant amount of mass and gravity, and atmosphere, it's fairly simple. We have to remember that "Life" may be different in other parts of the Galaxy, or Universe, like organisms could have evolved and developed under entirely Infrared Light. Those "Plants" and "Animals" may be very simplistic, and without self awareness. Where other organisms could have happened in a very bright, high (in Human standards) Radiation level setting, and my never evolve to any sort of Intelligence either. Basically Intelligence is the most rare form of Life, where as simple Celled organisms, or even just the most basic Multicellular organisms would be most common. The problem Humans are most faced with is the expansion of the Universe. Because we can't get anywhere fast enough to LOOK at what Life may/may not be present on any given other world outside of our Solar System. Regardless of statistics, when you look at the availability of the elements that allow life to happen, (you just need an electric current to cause life to happen.) Life is easily possible everywhere. That's why many Scientists and Cosmologists think Life could be everywhere, and common to some degree. Intelligence on the other hand, is far more rare. Even on Earth.

[@pharmagator]

Check the statistical likelihood of a single protein assembling by chance... Not to mention all the information needed to run the machinery of life

[@_symmetry_]

Professor Kipping, the content of your channel is absolutely amazing. You have an incredible mind, even just listening to you is pure gold. Thank you for your great work. You definitely have a magical talent to make me truly enter into all these Cool Worlds.

[@nighthawk9532]

I’ve been watching these videos for hours on end, let’s just appreciate how much effort and research this takes

[@myttydohun4851]

this guy's face is so aesthetically pleasing

[@BuddyLee23]

Gay

[@denmun9722]

you mean you attracted to men.... next time just say that

[@myttydohun4851]

Den Mun saying a guys face is aesthetically pleasing isn’t gay, and actually YOURE gay for saying that.

[@1952monkey]

I praise you because I am fearfully and wonderfully made; your works are wonderful, I know that full well. My frame was not hidden from you when I was made in the secret place, when I was woven together in the depths of the earth. Psalm 139

[@craigthescott5074]

Are we alone in the universe? Yes. So there’s no other civilizations out there? No there are but they are alone too.

[@DLWELD]

Meant as humour? But true! If 100 light years seperates you - you're as good as alone.

[@RodrigoTechador]

That scruff and ratty sweater is the perfect garb for these troubled times, Dr. Kipping.

[@theDyingAtheist]

And the glass of bourbon at the casino/dining table! Cheers.

[@randoviral8113]

Man I love this Channel. This top level information you don't find anywhere

[@carlosandleon]

I think life is a direct consequence of chemistry.

[@pedrocasonatti8067]

How non-alive matter turn into a live being? How about consciousness, is that just chemistry too?

[@rileyboomer8627]

Except that is verifiably false. We have been to other planters. No life. You can say life is a result of chemistry. But that has to be assumed in a scientific context. Because we know of no way for life to not come from something that isn’t chemistry. Life comes from chemistry yes But life is not a consequence of chemistry.

[@ProjectPhysX]

That is called pre-biological evolution / RNA hypothesis. It's the only way to explain the starting of life other than panspermia. It is impossible to generate the minimum genome for even the simplest self-replicating organism just by random chance, so there must be some selection present in simpler chemical processes already.

[@rileyboomer8627]

I think the OP is incorrect semantically. Also seems like we may have differing definitions of “direct consequence”

[@carlosandleon]

@@rileyboomer8627 we haven't visited life friendly planets lmao, that's like looking for liquid water in the sun

[@nathanmadonna9472]

Great Bayesian inference. I believe more information and evidence will show "intelligent life" evolves on planets that aren't like earth. Life we never imagined and hopefully will notice. The big challenge is scale. Super dope channel.👾

[@georget.8548]

We are trying to convince ourselves that there is life out there in the universe, because if there isn't any life, it would be very scary to be alone.

[@jameslane9267]

Been enjoying your work a lot in recent years, especially your videos with JMG. I myself believe in a variant of what JMG once said. “Microbial life is common, complex life is rare, and intelligent life is out of the ordinary” I think that it’s likely there’s maybe only one intelligent life form/civilization per large galaxy. If that’s the case then we still have trillions of intelligent civilizations in the observable universe, albeit none of them close enough to ever come in contact with. However, if that number is one in every one million large galaxies, that number drastically decreases. It’s so hard to say

[@letmeaskmydog5116]

Just love your videos! Thank you so much! "Trigger Basis" vs "Timeline Basis": One of the many premises for Davids discussion is that life takes a significant amount of time to develop intelligence, as if it follows a smooth linear progression from bacteria to iphone. But what if we focus in on the notion that specific environmental factors are what made cerebral intelligence a survival advantage on earth? For example, if not for the Chicxulub asteroid impact that killed the dinosaurs and enabled mammals to become available for hunting on the plains, there would be no intelligence. Natural selection would have had no reward with which to favor intelligence, bipedalism, and community drive, especially for such a physically vulnerable species as the early hominids. Some turn of events brought humans out of the trees and onto the plains to hunt collectively, and once THAT event occurred, intelligence was an almost immediate, natural next step. In other words, given the right trigger, perhaps intelligence becomes **extremely** likely and emerges **very rapidly**. Studying the likelihood of intelligence in that case should not be based upon how long it takes, but instead upon the likelihood of a trigger event. Granted, that trigger event could be encapsulated within the overall probability study already given. But what if this "trigger basis" incites different parameters and a different approach than the existing "timeline basis"? Might we find rather different results too?

[@jondenmark9577]

I asked your dog and he said WOOF WOOF

[@MMOLegend]

You are an amazing talent and my wife and I enjoy your videos very much, you have a great narrator voice, soothing!

[@ernieengineer3462]

Love your videos. Some of the best on KZbin. Your “Lab assistant” is a doll.

[@NapoleonicWargaming]

This is, without doubt, the most existentially depressing thing I've ever seen 😂

[@christianmarx3249]

imagine this your dad or grandpa ....probably even his ancestors in 1000 years can watch this ...KZbin was a great invention of humankind

[@JohnChaffer-b9g]

We are dearly intelligent communicating communicating directly with each other organisms. Organisms.

[@guydude6919]

I've had the same opinion for a while. It's nice to see the details presented like this and I hope they are more clear before the end of my lifetime. Thank you for another wonderful video.

[@LadyOfTheEdits]

You're so handsome. Wow and your voice ❤️

[@johnny_medicot927]

I never until now looked at this issue with such a good statistical framework, and the inclusion of your little lab assistant was ADORABLE

[@Jake-pn7wr]

Awww, his daughter looks so happy to be doing experiments with her pop 15:41

[@shep68]

Very interesting. I am exactly 50-50 on the subject. It won’t surprise me if life exists elsewhere and it won’t surprise me if it doesn’t. Maybe there’s 1 civilization per Galaxy. Maybe 1 per Universe if you believe in the multiverse. Either way the distances are so vast we may never meet. And rightly so. The way we behave we haven’t earned the right to interact with others. We are as toddlers down here and getting worse rather than better seemingly.

[@MichaTheLight]

Dear Dr. Kipping there are several objections I have. 1. Basic life is in fact very easy if it is so easy to produce in laboratory simulate ancient earth by sending lightings and hot melten rock. (24 hours and all amino acids needed were formed) It will also evolve quickly out of itself. 2. Panspermia seems very common some bacteria and even small animals like the Bärtierchen can travel unendless long periods if frozen in ice cause their ability cryptogenisis. Bärtierchen shown that they are easy survive in space until almost 0 Kelvin. This will shorten the life latter tremendously cause it begins with multicellular life which has segmented bodies a proto brain and sexual reproduction. 3. Environmental conditions we know now that not only planets are the rule also Rocky planets are. In every tenth solar system a Rocky planet is in the habitable zone. Also K-Type stars whos lifespans are 20 to 40 billion years also exists in such a system life has far more time to evolve. 4. I made a calculation based mainly on the environmental conditions sure I made some assumptions which could be in fact false one is that basic life is common but intelligent farther rare also I assume that after similar time spans as on earth life evolves. Also this life is water and carbon based. So I got a rather positive outcome that one in a million star systems produces intelligent life if we take into account that our galaxy bears 100 billion stars we got 100.000 civilisations. I excluded also moon worlds cause many of them are poisoned by the enormous radiation of their host gas planet 5. Another aspect is if so many civilisations are existing many will develop space flight and will spread to other planets and systems so the number of habituated solar systems could be far higher. Especially if we take Terra forming into account. But very likely you know most of that already.

[@AverageWhiteGuy101]

Every one of your videos blows my mind. 🤯

[@cdurkinz]

This is an honest genuine question I hope you see. What should we be seeing with our tech when we look out into space, that we are not seeing, if intelligence was out there? I would love a video in it.

[@marveloussoftware4914]

Great video. A couple of things to consider is when people say life should be prevalent because it started "early." If thats true then you would expect life to have formed more than once in 4 billion years; it didn't. Then theres the issue of the mitochondria. This organelle, necessary for all complex life especially intelligent life, may have only happened once. So once someone figures out the odds of life, the odds of this event may be key since no intelligent life happens without this event and this can be as rare or more rare than life itself.

[@DeezerWeazer]

This is gold. You are a rare gem, and so is this channel. I'm wondering whether focusing on li though, is right. Nick Lane, in Power, Sex, Suicide, dives into the transition from unicellular to multicellular organisms at the most likely evolutionary bottleneck very convincingly, suggesting that life is common, intelligent life is a natural evolution from multicellular organisms, but that hoping from uni to multicellular is a true bottleneck. This matches the 9:1+ ratio probability, but disagree with intelligence itself being where the inflection point occurs.

[@dougieh9676]

I love your channel Dr. Kipping. ❤❤❤❤❤

[@madmaxmcinnes4102]

We're most certainly not alone ........ the size of the universe is unfathomably huge ...... but I reckon, because of that, we're never gonna' make contact with any life. Mankind simply won't be around long-enough to achieve the technology to enable that to happen.

[@ianharrison5758]

The idea that life itself is common makes perfect sense to me. With some of the bacteria and shit we got that can withstand crazy extremes tells me that life can develop in very very harsh conditions. Sentient life tho? I mean, how do you know dogs aren’t sentient. They aren’t humans, so they don’t have the ability nor will to grasp our perception of reality but we can’t say with any certainty that the sentience of human life is the blueprint. We always assume the same basic factors in sentient life when in reality, we could have it all around us, just not in ways we can meaningfully communicate.

[@bgrady24]

Cute kid, looks like my daughter. This is some pretty complicated stuff but I still like trying to follow. It’s great knowing high level brains are working on these problems.

[@ElementsOfAmbience]

Wow its reassuring that this math backs up common sense that life in the universe is common but intelligent life is rare tx!

[@nuvostef]

Good evening, Doctor Kipling. I absolutely love the Cool Worlds viddies and have viewed many of them multiple times. I appreciate the hard work you and your associates put into these presentations. To watch these fascinating episodes, to listen to your soothing voice, and to appreciate the fine graphics is the perfect way to decompress at the end of each day. In regard to the graphics you use, we’ve seen several animations of galaxies colliding and I’ve always wondered what such an unimaginable collision might mean on a much smaller scale, as in a planetary-sized scale. I’m certainly not educated enough to conceive of such a titanic event, so…is it possible you could show us? 😊 In any case, I do hope you continue giving us these spell-binding programs; they are jewels in the rubbish tip of YT. 🖖🏼

[@tosvus]

Great video. I would say you can't really conclude that life started here 4.5 billion years ago though. If something happened at that time, say the moon or some other object caused a massive impact, it could change it so much that all record of life, even intelligent would be permanently gone.