The Power of Expectations: Nvidia's Earnings Report and Market Reaction

[@JunaidHasan23]

Nice to see Prof upload non course videos again after a while!

[@bogdanbogdanovic3678]

Professor was writing book, and now is come back to fully fledged engagement. The right question is on our end- whether we are capable to follow his "regular" pace.

[@wm6549]

I learn something new from every video he posts.

[@angeladeem2988]

The setback with NVIDIA’S Blackwell line gave the market pause, and many of the speculators abandoned the stock. But, NVIDIA fundamentals, especially the high demand for their products, are rock solid. I don't mind having to hold it for a while, but I'd also like to appreciate short-term opportunities to make additions to my $500K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...

[@ClaudiaSchreiber-b1p]

Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown.

[@annaj.osorio]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

[@DanielOrstein]

impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now

[@annaj.osorio]

Viviana Marisa Coelho is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.

[@angeladeem2988]

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

[@silvera1109]

It might not be possible to find a better explanation of the earnings cycle, market expectations and reactions than this excellent summary. There is a lot of wisdom distilled into this 30 minute video.

[@romaindelplancq2377]

Mr. Damodaran thank you again for blessing us with your knowledge.

[@Oishiilicious]

Thank you so much for the video! This content is incredibly good.

[@antonkal]

Listening to this on the way to and from school!

[@citizendan6390]

Thank you professor for posting this content. constantly learning and improving and your lectures play a big role in this never ending quest! god bless you and your family!

[@nagpalsid]

Excellent video prof, thanks

[@i.g.4090]

Great analysis. Thank you Professor !

[@denh555]

Always a pleasure hearing your thoughts. Thank you for sharing professor

[@muralimalyala5505]

Professor's catchword 'you are saying so what'😂

[@TxRedMan]

I arrived at very similar numbers. The lesson that you have presented here though not specifically articulated is important to highlight- if you’re able to reasonably extrapolate future cash flows be they earnings, revenue etc., you have an advantage in investing. No one can extrapolate how the market will react to those numbers over a 1-3 month timeframe but in general you will be able to invest successfully in individual companies which is one of the most difficult skills to develop and execute.

[@VenkateshJayapal]

Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge.

[@rahulsagarpv]

You are amazing! Thank you for educating us ❤

[@Jayy554]

Really enjoyed this video Professor. Thank you!

[@robbarnett6530]

Hi Professor, I note that increasingly over time for many technology companies you are using terminal ROIC's which are often double the terminal cost of capital. What does this say about your expectation for their sustainable competitive advantage forever? How realistic is this assumption? Best regards, Rob

[@wohinmitdemgeld584]

Thank you! I think every trader and investor should watch this.

[@chandrasekargovindan4380]

Tks prof great knowledge sharing

[@alexkoch14]

Thank you professor!

[@Matthew-us2ys]

Great coverage. Intriguing you held on in spite of over-valuation. I suppose not even the best investors can be entirely rational. :)

[@nicolasnicolas6468]

Thank you Once again 😊

[@mattk1631]

I never say "So what." when watching a video by you Professor!

[@M.2000-v2g]

I came to the same conclusion. Amazing company but the market sentiment on Nvidia is too hyped. I sold 90% of my position at $122 after holding the stock for 2 years. If it drop below $100, I'll look to buy back in. For now tho, the AI hype is causing too much volatility to stay in.

[@terryegabel6472]

Paid $0.37 so will hold on😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@alexandruolaru7855]

500B in revenue, that's wow, I just can't make myself believe this is possible, I don't think GOOGLE, META, AMAZON, MICROSOFT will make together this amount to buy chips for NVIDIA. And why would they continue to buy those chips, they need to prove AI is worth it and build working money making businesses around it. My story is that, NVIDIA will keep the earnings for 1-2 more years and then the earnings will drop tremendously, the magnificent seven will be saturated with chips...

[@persieprince9345]

And you cant sell to china because uncle sam says so ,so basically the demand is capped

[@jordansdisciple3674]

The thing is, NVDA is constantly reinvesting earnings in R&D which is allowing them to innovate faster than competition (AMD, intel and other semi-conductor designers). As long as they keep delivering new products with better performance they should continue to grow earnings at a reasonable pace. Multiples are still too high and a correction will come given enough time (IMO). But if the mega-cap tech firms can start driving EPS growth due to their implementation of AI in their own software offerings (primarily cloud), we could see them continue to deploy more in Capex every year.

[@shays.1461]

Very insightful. I'm just wondering why you assigned a zero value for the options? I assume this company provides its employees with a ton of this compensation.

[@snoworder]

That volatility has nothing to do with NVDA reporting, we had biggest volatility spike in the year for the whole market in the end of the July

[@rexiioper6920]

good point - Professor did not adjust for the control group

[@JasonTheOneAndOnly]

Wish I knew about stocks and the market 10 years ago, I was and always have been a fan of nvidia, ever since I bought my first gpu back in the early 2000s, I would of been minted by now 🙃

[@dennismorris7573]

Fascinating discourse.

[@greenbullmarket1182]

Thank you professor for such a detailed analysis . I have some doubt if any one can clear here . How did we get the market cap data for AI chip and auto chip section . Thank you

[@aishaibrahimabbas5867]

Insightful.

[@wilso28]

very good and informative video.. can you do $TSLA?

[@bigbillyz]

Will dip but below $100 and rebound ?

[@manubhatt3]

Interesting thing is that when NVIDIA was trading at the current price equivalent of $50, then he was saying it was overvalued.

[@randomsitisee7113]

This is a $70-80/sh company. Next year comps will be very high, so growth re-rating will occur in next 2 months, combined with seasonality of Sept/Oct. it’s already at 102. Would be happy to risk on at 80

[@nitinchaudhary3140]

sir can you please suggest me some topics for research purpose , my subject is derivatives ,

[@JoeS97756]

Aswath missed another 20% appreciation in the last month.

[@akosbakonyi5749]

Does Amazon spend more on Nvidia chips than Apple??

[@rexiioper6920]

If you’re not a momentum trader or a short term contrarian, is there any reason you should care about the expectations game?

[@Senor_Avila]

Thankyou ❤❤

[@ARIK.R]

Can i ask you what do you think about AVGO earnigs from today ? thank you

[@zacharychen4112]

I estimated the fair value to be $101-$116 per share.

[@clifftanch]

If your PhD dissertation is posted somewhere, please share.

[@mvsrikrishna]

Thank you, professor, for the valuable lesson on the power of expectations! This knowledge will serve me well when evaluating new-age companies that have a lot of hype surrounding them.

[@clifftanch]

Your comment has proven convenient to Short Sellers, at least Today. You should leave a copy of your PowerPoint in the links. Thank You.

[@Investchan]

I am capturing all these parameters into an AI model to see if we can predict better!

[@rexiioper6920]

bruh 😂

[@BartPolly-j1h]

Princess Highway

[@javadbacker481]

the episode we didn't deserve. but the episode we needed.

[@kk22001]

I don't know what the intention here on the 2 mins mark where you mentioned that this is how the market works and saying how the market react to sources like earnings reports etc. Could be your justification that how your narrative that you mentioned on your previous videos are going to play out now for nvidia. And the most confusing part of you making these videos vs what you teached on the investment classes, there is a huge disconnect. In all your classes is all about investment, and looking at the definition of investment, we are looking at long term with business moat. Nvidia checks all those boxes. And in all your videos on nvidia that i've listened is that you preach it in a way of how retails traders would react and this is how retail traders always lose money when they are having this kind of thinking and mindset.

[@JosephWilliams-v9x]

Lee Robert Hall Lisa Williams Jeffrey

[@attention_shopping]

:O

[@liannesim9558]

It is a pity you don't explain where you have heard that Nvidia said that things were slowing down, I have heard the opposite, like the comment around Blackwell. And also a pity that you do not explain why a share buy back is a sign things slow down.From what I have learned, companies do that when they feel their stock is undervalued, so that is also a sign that they expect more of their own stock in the future. It is like an investment and it does not make sense to invest when you expect things to go down.

[@rebanta570]

as you mentioned, buy back happens when the company expects the value of share to increase but it can also imply that in future the company is expecting slow growth thus buying back the shares would let them freely value the company In short just because a big hedge fund is shorting a stock doesn't mean they expect it to go down it could very well be hedging strategy Similarly Nvidia buying its share can show its Hedge or purposefully creating value for more investors to join Nothing is certain or straightforward in the word

[@charlesdaudre-vignier7303]

Growth is supported by investment. Without growth opportunity, earnings cannot be invested. If earnings cannot be invested, earnings are distributed to investors as dividends or share buyback. If you can invest money, you don't return earnings to investors, you invest.

[@TheWinterkoning]

@@charlesdaudre-vignier7303 i have no clue what you mean. I would only buy shares if I expect them to be more valuable in the future, it doesn't make sense to buy them now if some time later they are worth 20% less. Then you can better wait. In other words, if Nvidia expects growth to slow down, they'd better wait. Also because. the impact on the earnings per share ( so benefit for investors ) is peanuts

[@mariof1468]

Revenue, eps growth are slowing down in the number he has shown.

[@balajimorpalle1108]

kya sir aap hindi me bhi video bana sakte hai.. plz

[@sumanthasaha61]

He doesn't Know Hindi. He was born in Chennai.

[@manubhatt3]

He is Madrasi - The Great Madrasi Valuation Anna!

[@necromancer7712]

AI bubble is over and its not coming back. People should better realize the reality sooner than later

[@JoeS97756]

Oops, stock up 20% since this video.

[@manubhatt3]

Please look at the camera while talking! It's very rude talking to someone while looking away!

[@JL-sg9rb]

Your rudeness is par with you ignorance. He is looking at his screen reading the notes and figures as he delivers his analysis.

[@manubhatt3]

@@JL-sg9rb Hey, I am not watching his video for the first time. He usually looks at the camera, so why in this video he is looking away? Does this video involves much more analysis than his other videos of this kind? I don't think so. I noticed something very odd which he usually never does so spoke up - nothing rude or ignorant about it.

[@pauljones9150]

Thank you professor!