The Promise of Lower Rates in Victoria BC | November 2024

[@AlexCarroll]

Was this informative? Where do you think we're headed in 2025?

[@supermash1]

For a crash in real estate prices I hope.

[@AlexCarroll]

@@supermash1 What would you view as a crash? 10% correction? 40% correction?

[@galz1170]

Since buying a home in Victoria (even though it doesn't make sense to buy CMHC for a million dollar home - in my opinion) has become more attainable with changes in regulation, I think houses will gradually continue to increase in price. I think condos will continue to dip this fall and winter, but will start bouncing back next year in the spring. If not next spring, then spring 2026. New builds, space, good location and low/average strata fees are a commodity - making builds like the Bayview area, dockside and even Aria still desirable buildings. Condos are the new "affordable family home" - making square footage even more a hot commodity. It is a great time to buy with lower rates and more negotiating power, plus you get to be picky.

[@supermash1]

@@AlexCarroll A crash would be a 40% to 50% correction. More than that is needed to bring prices into line with incomes, and to restore the long term viability of a middle class. You tube is frustrating, I made a long comment after this comment, I'll try again.

[@AlexCarroll]

@@galz1170 these both sound like some reasonable bets. Location and quality always win!

[@JanetLClark]

Well.... 1992 was a recession in the construction market resulting from the introduction of GST by Brian Mulroney in 1990, and it took years to work itself out. 2008 was a bank crisis but the same result and it took years to work itself out. 2024 is a housing crisis and given the periodicity of these recessions, despite diverse contributing factors, I think it will take years to work itself out. Nice 16 year cycle there.

[@AlexCarroll]

Interesting analysis. Will be following economic headwinds closely. Worth noting Victoria jobs data has fared better than Canadian aggregate over the last few years.

[@jimmyhat3438]

The Bond Market will set the 5 year terms

[@AlexCarroll]

@@jimmyhat3438 that’s correct (for fixed rates)

[@at6446]

Prices would never drop in Victoria

[@AlexCarroll]

They actually dropped about 20% over 9 months in 2022.

[@supermash1]

Victoria is not affordable for people in the middle class. It has become an enclave for rich Canadians (and others) due to it's mild climate and it being unquestionably a nice city. Alex, you will do fine because of this but Victoria is becoming like Vancouver was 25 years ago. There will be continuing congestion and density here, we have not seen anything yet. As for myself, I cannot afford even a tear-down junk stucco one bedroom condo here. I've bought some land in Annapolis Valley, NS and will try to build something myself there. It will be very, very modest at best. I cannot see a future here in BC. I really feel for young people born in Canada, many of whom will never be able to get into the real estate market here. Every level of government has relied on real estate to fund their grotesque bloat and enabled what is without question a ponzi scheme. "Extend and pretend", 30 year mortgages, and now Eby saying he will directly fund 40% of housing purchase prices? This all only jacks prices further and prevents the necessary crash from happening. Canada's governments are directly destroying the middle class with all of these schemes and of course their continuous money printing and borrowing / deficit spending which only creates real asset price inflation. In the future this period will be looked back upon as the most irresponsible fiscal and monetary management in Canada's history. Canada has become a country where many people, even skilled people, are unable to get ahead through working for their living. It is now exclusively run for people with money and assets. I think this is a pathetic state of affairs for a modern democratic country.

[@Laissez-faire402]

Nothing is worse than a rich socialist.

[@RMD992-f2n]

whats wrong with stucco?