The Psychology and Science of Pacing Your Race - The 2% Rule

In this video masterclass, we'll talk about the critical importance of pacing in marathons and how it can dramatically affect your race outcomes.
We'll explore the differences between even pacing, negative splits, and positive splits, using examples from elite runners like Kelvin Kiptum and Eliud Kipchoge.
I'll also guide you through a practical evaluation of your last marathon splits to determine if you're pacing correctly.
Plus, you'll learn why starting slower can conserve your glycogen levels, making a huge difference in the latter part of the race.
Master these pacing strategies to improve your marathon time without additional training, diet changes, or advanced gear.
Watch now to run smarter and faster!
00:00 Introduction to Marathon Pacing
01:11 Common Pacing Mistakes
01:57 Elite Runners' Pacing Strategies
03:08 Understanding Splits: Even, Negative, and Positive
04:38 Calculating Your Pacing Strategy
08:30 Real-World Example: Analyzing a Runner's Splits
12:53 The Psychological and Physiological Benefits of Proper Pacing
22:32 Final Thoughts and Encouragement
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Resources & Links
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► 3 Training Principles of Elite Runners Webinar: www.andrewsnow....
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[@melissagrace3973]

My favorite coach!

[@thecaptainchas2820]

My best (by far) marathon was Chicago 2023, where Kiptum Set the WR (RIP). I ran virtually even splits. Technically, it was a 12 second negative split (1:24:50 first half, 1:24:38 second half), but that’s like 0.1% so I’ll call it even. But my first mile was my slowest, and I intentionally ran the first 10km gradually getting to goal pace. Felt so strong at the end! I’ve been implementing a lot of principles from the book and redesigning all of my training plans to make best use of the triphasic model. Thanks for all the content, Andrew!

[@runelitecoach]

Wonderful! So glad you’re implementing and doing well! And thanks for reading the book

[@tracym.3857]

Amazing! This was the most in depth I’ve ever heard on this. Thank you

[@runelitecoach]

Glad it was helpful!

[@L0Ls0ul]

I finished my last half marathon (PBed) with a second half that was ~2.5% faster than the first half. I'm perfectly happy and considering at 7k I was already questioning if I could hold the pace (which at this point was 2 slow kilometers, 4k only 1-3s slower than my finish average and one slightly faster 1k) till the end, I can't believe I actually managed to negative split the race. That's the very first race where I actually thought I couldn't have done more.

[@runelitecoach]

That’s very good pacing. Nearly perfect. Great job!

[@CFSMTRAINING]

Excellent!!! Humble pie

[@andrewsnow5007]

awesome

[@runelitecoach]

Thank you kindly!

[@conordempsey8854]

Just checked my results from cph marathon this year: 3:28:22 overall 1:45:29 1st half 1:42:53 2nd half 2.5% faster in 2nd half, pretty good! I reckon I could've gone maybe 2mins faster overall but I enjoyed the whole race and will take that over 2 extra mins any day!

[@garydon19]

Excellent as ever, and gave me confidence in my own chances of a better marathon. I’ve been guilty of all of those scenarios you explained. I think the worst one is when you are slightly ahead of your goal pace and feel good, and continue, but inevitably blow up. Much more sensible to get back to goal pace or even less if you’ve ran a quicker few miles early on.

[@runelitecoach]

Well studied man you are! Thanks for watching

[@Jean-Claude-Van-Gelis]

Coach Andrew very informative video, I am preparing for my first half marathon (44 years old) in September and I would like to learn more about nutrition and hydration before, during and after training. Thank you very much and congratulations for your book

[@runelitecoach]

Thank you. I’m glad you’re enjoying the content. Good luck at your first half!

[@user-mt8ij1mp9n]

This is so good, thanks.

[@runelitecoach]

Thank you too!

[@OCJoker2009]

Great explanation Coach Andrew!👏

[@runelitecoach]

Appreciate it! Glad you enjoyed

[@RunLiveSG]

I trained track during high school decades ago and found it easier for me to be consistent with pacing if i set my Garmin to give a lap time alert at 400m instead of 1km or 1mile. It's really satisfying to look at a pace graph with even laps 😅

[@runelitecoach]

If that works for you, sounds great! In a marathon actually like to go the opposite direction personally, and take 5K splits. But whatever keeps you on pace the idea of looking at a split every 400 m for a marathon doesn’t seem fun to me, but like I say if it works for you, it’s awesome.

[@potblack7951]

Excellent and very accurate video…you know your stuff…one of your best videos..imho..thank you!!

[@runelitecoach]

Glad you enjoyed it

[@andrewsnow5007]

🎉

[@andrewhammonds4907]

Awesome explanation. This video made me feel great about my last marathon. Positive split by 0.4% 😊

[@runelitecoach]

Oh yeah that’s dang near perfect. Great job

[@vidzgo]

Great video, a few weeks ago I blew up my 10k race by starting the first 2k with a pace 0:15/k too fast. And last week I did a 5k with even splits which went great.

[@Nothing2CHere]

Great content. (The stock video clips are hilarious.)

[@runelitecoach]

Glad you like them! I particularly like the Dumb and Dumber one with the Gu packets

[@brianmessemer2973]

That's a nice tip. Thank you!!

[@runelitecoach]

You bet!

[@blastofftv7641]

This kicks ass! Thank you

[@runelitecoach]

Haha 😆 welcome

[@alexgjo3132]

Hey Andrew, thanks for the amazing content that you provide. What is your opinion on taking protein powders (plant-based, vegan) and creatine. I’ve watched a lot of your videos and even read your book, but I’ve never heard you talking about this. Regards

[@runelitecoach]

You can get all of your protein implants. It’s not difficult at whatsoever. The highest protein foods are beans and greens. You can just ask yourself. Where did my protein get its protein? For example, if you eat beef, where did the cow get its protein? It plants of course. Animals that are most genetically similar to us. Eat plants. A gorilla eats greens all day long and they have a lot of muscle. Chimpanzees eat, almost exclusively fruit for their calories. Creatine, I have an entire video coming on that very soon, so stay tuned and subscribe if you’re not already. I sift through about 40 research papers for this video and you can expect it within the next month

[@alexgjo3132]

@@runelitecoach thanks for your answer Andrew. I really appreciate it. I’m a vegan runner so I wouldn’t eat beef to get my protein. I even bought the book The Starch Solution based on your recommendation in one of your videos and I started listening to Dr. McDougall. So you say that taking additional protein from protein powder won’t benefit my running? According to Dr. McDougall, he’s even saying that additional isolated proteins may even hurt us, but he’s mentioning just isolated soy protein not pea or rice. What do you think about that? P.S. I can’t wait for your video about creatine!

[@michaelnyvang3717]

Hi Andrew. Pace in running is very difficult, hence as an amateur you run alongside faster or even slower runners. Pacing alone is very easy, but on race day it is definitely not easy. You talk about 2% negative, I agree, but then you also talk about letting the inexperienced slower runner pass you. It's not a 2% difference. Maybe that was just to illustrate your point of negative split. Garmin has Negative split, but as you say GPS is not 100% correct so it might loos some time or make you think you are ahead of time. How do you pace in race with GPS/watch or by making ink note on paper/arm what your split should be.

[@hman2912]

Even when I think I'm pacing evenly, I look at the data afterwards and during each kilometre the pace is wildly erratic. After 20 years of running, I still struggle with it.

[@runelitecoach]

Yes it’s hard to master. But it’s critical for your best times

[@L0Ls0ul]

This approach seems to require you to know before the race, what your finish time is supposed to be. What do you recommend to determine an achievable finish time for the marathon?

[@runelitecoach]

Use a similar distance and then McMillain calculator to estimate your finish time

[@Naxx1987]

How can i predict a marathon time I'm capable off. Is there a lind of benchmark run before the marathon which give a hint?

[@runelitecoach]

Sure, you can use a conversion calculator. Try the McMillan Running) calculator. But those times are only indicative of equivalent performances if you train specifically for each event. So for most people, their marathon will be slower than predicted, simply because they haven’t done enough long runs.

[@acasualviewer5861]

RIP Kiptum

[@runelitecoach]

Yes

[@edwin5419]

Yeah but Kipchoge positively split that race because he was going for a sub-2 hour on the road and eventually settled for a world record

[@runelitecoach]

Yup and still got a WR