The QB Market Is COOKED

[@DBGPodcast]

Would you rather overpay your QB or let him go and risk being left empty handed?

[@lecoutcritique8854]

let him go, raise your pay for O-line to get a solid 8 O-line roster (need to take care of injuries) and make sure you can bring an average QB farther than anyone else. And then watch the magic happen => you'll get offers from QB's just past their prime with great talent but no ring yet at a discount. Sure they'll never be "the best" but you solid finance management allows you to have a defense, and a team with top 8 offense and defense is always a contender.

[@KvnPel]

​​@@lecoutcritique8854You will just be the Indianapolis colts, they've had a roster for years but no quarterback and still do, a quarterback is all they're missing, but how much luck have they had replacing luck absolutely none, even Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz failed so it's easy said then done, we got a bunch of Madden GM's here

[@whoozyyy]

Let him go

[@pakpaksugar5194]

not even joking, this is all deshaun and the browns fault

[@daniel122269]

And the giants w Daniel jones

[@toddpacker1015]

Dak was a disaster

[@trademark4537]

It's been goin on back when Joe Flacco was getting paid

[@DonOnAMeme]

TBH, all things considered: I don’t blame Deshaun. He is garbage on, and off the field, but he got the big bag because other people are stupid.

[@DonOnAMeme]

@@toddpacker1015Dak is not a disaster, compared to most of these other guys.

[@thisismyyoutubecommentacco6302]

The problem with the QB "market" is every top 15 QB thinks they are entitled to reset the market every time a new contract is up, because if the team refuses to pay, one of the bottom 15 teams without a QB will snatch them up immediately. Honestly at this point I would like to see some kind of "max" contract system in the NFL similar to the NBA, where QB's can only take 25% of the cap space of something.

[@DBGPodcast]

It’s definitely an unsustainable model. The NFLPA is happy with it right now because players are getting record money and the starting point for contracts keeps rising but like the housing market in 2008 eventually it comes to a point where subprime QBs getting that money fail and teams end up paying less for QBs after because of it. Already starting to see the cracks with the most recent deals all looking bad outside of Love maybe but the sample size is smaller on him and he has a cheap core around him

[@thisismyyoutubecommentacco6302]

@@DBGPodcast Thing in the NFLPA whines about running back contracts at the same time. 🙄

[@trumanauman9388]

any qb being paid more that pat mahomes are being overpaid😭

[@DugEphresh]

Dallas is a joke because of this, it's moronic! Let em walk, no QB is worth what they are asking now!

[@DBGPodcast]

I think they’re a perfect example of this issue. Dak had a great season last year but there were still long term questions about him being your franchise guy getting that kind of money. Seemed like it could’ve been a perfect sell high opportunity before paying him and let some QB needy team overpay. It’s tough getting rid of your QB and risking having nobody but we’re seeing the alternative if he’s not a top guy and gets that money

[@DugEphresh]

@@DBGPodcast WTF, being handicapped financially with a mediocre QB gets no DRAFT picks! WTF are you talking about? Guaranteed contract are even more insane. Phuck them!

[@XEROCAR3]

​@@DBGPodcastHow can anyone expect Dak to carry a team name one QB that has won a Superbowl besides Patrick mahomes?

[@XEROCAR3]

All by himself with one weapon look at how bad Patrick mahomes is playing this year but they are 6-0. Jalen hurts is also playing terrible he has Smith and AJ Brown also not to mention Saquon Barkley

[@DBGPodcast]

@@XEROCAR3I don’t think you can expect him to carry that team and that‘s really why he shouldn’t have gotten that money. He’s a good but not elite QB and is being paid elite money. I understand them thinking they could contend based off where they were the past couple years but that was clearly a misjudgment looking at the rest of the offense and the defense. Run game not being dealt with was a huge mistake as well but that just goes back to bad front office. In the end they really locked themselves into a bad situation. Yes there’s ways to manage the cap to clear up space to bring in difference makers but it all comes to a head if guys either get injured or don’t match production and you’re unable to move on. Best example is Michael Thomas with the saints. Gets hurt and production is down but because how they managed the cap and kicked the can it was a hit to move on from him.

[@russelljackson8153]

It's a scarcity issue. There are maybe 7 guys everyone would want on their team and everyone else has to debate if they get rid of their QB that's good but not that good if they pay him or take their chances on drafting a guy who might be the next star QB, but how often does that work out? We've had entire drafts of 1st round QB busts.

[@tonypalitti9377]

The NFL caused this problem in their quest to make the game more exciting by turning it into a passing game. The rules are slanted so heavily in favor of passing it has caused this insane arms race to get a QB/receiver combination. Everything is secondary to that and guess what, If they miss your basically screwed for the next 4 to 5 seasons.

[@the_seahawk22]

100% true. I have always thought why teams wouldn’t draft everything u need before the QB. Like the Seahawks in the early 2010’s built their defense and skill positions before drafting go Russ. After that, they won a Super Bowl (and should have won 2…pain) But the point still stands. Make sure your trenches are secure then QB last

[@DBGPodcast]

‼️

[@Carlos-ey8qi]

I'm a cowboys fan but it was a stupid move. Look at brady. He never asked for a lot of money so he can get good players around him. He wasn't selfish

[@YakuzaRich]

That's just not true. After Brady's rookie contract expired he was usually a top-3 QB in terms of salary and cap hit. I used to laugh as media outlets would publish this bullshit and then I would see that Brady's cap hit was more than Peyton Manning's. The key difference between the way the Pats did it was they didn't pay WR's big deals and didn't pay much for RB's either. They did end up paying big $$$ for Gronk, but he was worth the money as arguably the best TE ever who was a great pass receiver that was complete matchup nightmare for teams and he was a good blocker which just created more matchup problems for the opposing defense.

[@11lilreg11]

He never asked for a lot of money after his first big contract because he was one of the most endorsed and marketable athletes of all time. Lets stop acting like everyone is just as capable

[@robertm3951]

Brady left his pregnant girlfriend for a super-model who made hundreds of millions of US dollars. That is pretty selfish. He also took less money so he could get more rings. I would not exactly call that as selfless act either.

[@YakuzaRich]

@@robertm3951 He didn't take less money to get more rings. It was a BS claim and the media fell for it hook, line and sinker. There were years that they were claiming that and his cap hit was higher than Peyton Manning's. It's why year after year the Pats didn't pay much for WR's (they got Moss on the cheap). They didn't have the cap room to do so between paying Brady and the defense.

[@Carlos-ey8qi]

@robertm3951 lol you are right about that

[@jessfromthewest3628]

Pay your running backs and pay your defense. This season of football is pretty hard to watch. It's getting out of hand.

[@CharlesNyonga]

Every time a QB is up for a new contract, will be the highest paid because those are the rules.

[@Orciwan548]

Would restructuring around incentives be the way to go? Like offer a solid contract but a chance to make big money only if they win big. Pretty much guaranteed to get what you pay for.

[@AvrilAlvarez]

In pretty much all sports, teams have been getting more and more impulsive with front office decisions. The QB market in the NFL is just more proof of that

[@sw0re0]

1:25 hating ahh😂

[@JSTARIN]

Cowboys fan here. It is ridiculous that Dak got that contract. To me he is an average to below average quarterback. Average against terrible teams and below average against good teams. I’m sure he’s a great leader and a great guy but he’s not a good quarterback at all.

[@Blaftuned]

If I’m a GM I’m building an offensive line and getting a top RB. Also paying good money for a TE that gives me 30 million per year wr production at 15 million. Try to find the next Baker or Geni Smith or draft a qb. Have two 10 to 15 mi wr2 this hedges against injury too.

[@DBGPodcast]

Build around your QB‼️ Look at what the Vikings, Lions (yes they paid Goff but only after building around him and having Amon ra on a cheap cap hit still until 2026 and Goff’s contact doesn’t spike until 2026 so they established their window), 49ers, etc. have done. They built teams around their QB and put the QB in a position to succeed. Don’t make your QB have to be a hero

[@Blaftuned]

@@DBGPodcast Geno smith, Baker Mayfield , Darnold, browns with Flacco last year , Jayden Daniel’s , Purdy and ect it’s possible to compete only guy I would break the bank for is Mahomes and maybe Burrow

[@ryanw4182]

As I understand it, most of these contracts aren't set up to actually pay that much. For example, Jordan love's contract is 4 years, $220mil with $75 in the last year, and the next biggest cap hit at $45mil. This contract will probably be restructured with an extension the off season before that cap hit takes place. At least that seems to be the plan. Also the cap has increased a lot. The qb prices have increased more, but it's not as bad as it looks. I basically agree that only top 5 qbs should be paid like that, and rn lawrence is making more than mahomes, allen, jackson, and (especially) purdy. However, I don't think the packers made a bad decision for love (because of having every single receiver on a rookie contract/signed off a practice squad), burrow is equivalent exchange, the lions are going all in in the next 2 years, and the rest of the >$50mil club is cooked. And jesus christ, someone sign flacco for like $30mil a year on a 3 year contract and use him to develop a rookie qb. There is missed talent in the nfl rn

[@DBGPodcast]

I think that’s definitely something worth discussing. The way these contracts are structured sets a window for the team that they want to go all in. Look at the Lions for example: Goff’s extension really kicks in against the cap in 2026, the same time Amon Ra’s does. They’ve moved their cap to be able to go all in these next couple years. Once they get to 2026 they probably will have pushed some of that money further down too so the window won’t just slam shut. That’s the ideal situation for a team like them when you have a clear window when you can go all in and after that you maneuver as needed to keep trying to contend. Packers are in the same boat with the rest of the team being cheap. Issue comes when you think you’re in that window and you’re not and/or your QB underperforms. Biggest glaring example is the Cowboys who now are already in their best chance to contend on Dak’s deal but aren’t a contender. Same with the Jags and similar with the dolphins with Tua and then Tyreek getting older. Once you start having to maneuver your cap and kick it down the road it shrinks a bit of what you can do and the bigger issue rises when you want to move on from someone who you restructured before his contract ends. Definitely a really interesting thing to dive into though

[@ryanw4182]

@@DBGPodcast Yeah, I'd agree that it's pretty complicated. I think that a lot of these teams are desperate for any team success and willing to make very risky maneuvers for any sort of lasting legacy. Out of the top 11 paid qbs (roughly 1/3rd of starters by apy) 7 are on teams that haven't made it to the superbowl in the past 2 decades, 6 are on teams without a franchise superbowl win, and 3 are on teams with no superbowl appearances. For teams with no legacy at all, taking a big risk to get a single moment for your fans to hold on for for decades might be worth it. For the teams that have had recent success, they seem to only be paying qbs that are good, and are giving themselves a real window. 15 of 32 teams have been to the superbowl in the past 2 decades and have a franchise win, that's 47% overall. Of the top 3rd paying teams: only 3 (28%) fit both of these criteria. Those same 3 teams (GB, BAL, and PHI) have a combined 14-6 record right now. It seems that team legacy is an important factor of whether you pay a bad qb big bucks, or wait for a qb that's worth it. Of the 4 teams that haven't been to a superbowl: 3 have top 3rd paid qbs. Of the 11 top paying teams: 7 have names that start with one of the first 5 letters of the alphabet, that's 64%. Compared to the rest of the nfl's 33% of names starting with the one of the first 5 letters of the alphabet. Be wary of stats, but I do think desperation is a massive reason for some of these moves.

[@kinghalf-dead4248]

I think the receiver market crashes first teams will realize that having a number 1 isn't necessary you can have 2 #2 wrs and a good tight end and be fine like Tom and gronk, mahomes and kelce, always and Shannon sharpe.

[@DBGPodcast]

That’s definitely a good possibility with how many good #2 receivers there are it’s just tough with how attached at the hip these QBs ang receivers are. QBs hate letting their top guy walk

[@djzip9231]

Not everyone is mahomes and not every te is Kelce and gronk. Plenty of wr1 completely change and win games. Mid qbs in a great surrounding cast can get to and win Super Bowls. Qb has become overvalued compared to most positions.

[@DrakeMayeLover69]

All I’m hearing is Drake Maye is getting a Super Bowl while on a rookie deal

[@DBGPodcast]

Then you wake up

[@urmanascrewed]

Good point about elite QBs and their receivers. Aaron Rodgers usually had an elite WR. Brady normally wouldn't and that money would go to Oline or defense. The post-LOB are Seahawks never really paid top of market WR money IIRC and put all their money into keeping the aging LOB core on defense and pretty much nowhere else on that team.

[@dabbingtoast7743]

•QB salaries keep going up because the salary cap keeps going up. Hence you should look at these things as a percentage of the cap and not the money itself. •Teams are just scared to make hard decisions. Hurts, Love, and Tua are recent examples of guys that teams should just make play out their contract. Stop paying these dudes that have outlier years or have only done it for one year before you have to.

[@DBGPodcast]

That’s a good point that we should have gotten into. QB salaries are rising faster than the cap is so they’re taking up a greater percentage of the cap than before. For reference in 2012 (after the new CBA) Drew Brees had the highest contract by percentage of the cap at 16.58%. The top contract in 2018 was Rodgers’ taking up 18.91% of the cap. This season Burrow’s contract tops the list at 24.47% of the cap and 13 QBs take up over 20% of their team’s cap. Even if those were definitively the best 13 QBs in the league it would mean that you have at least 3 QBs that aren’t even top 10 receiving at least 1/5th of the cap. Wild stuff

[@dabbingtoast7743]

@@DBGPodcast Teams do stupid shit with contracts constantly (Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Sam Bradford, Brock Osweiler, etc) that kinda just enable the top 15 QBs to walk into the GMs office and rightly declare “Daniel Jones got 40ish a year and he sucks ass. Pay me more.” Until GMs stop just paying average to above average QBs because ‘they have to’ it’ll just be a never ending cycle.

[@thefuture4266]

This is what I tell everyone and they all think I’m crazy but it is facts lmfao.

[@bankrollbrooklynn]

drew brees reference ⚜️⚜️⚜️⚜️🩵

[@tgs5725]

As an extremely successful NFL GM myself I'll tell you, you never want to overpay for a QB. I've EASILY won multiple superbowls with mid QBs if the team around them was great during my tenure. and my success strategy stays the same no matter if it's Madden 24 or even 25.

[@AscentFTW]

found this vid by accident but found nothing I disagree with

[@GregoryFromTexas]

great video, keep up the good work

[@YakuzaRich]

Great content guys. I don't think the QB market is closed as much as eventually teams will see it as a bad idea to pay both a QB and WR big bucks. So the WR market may end up being doomed because what's the sense of paying a WR big $$$$ if you don't have somebody to throw him the ball. I do think that some teams will be more skeptical about paying QB's unless they are a top-5 QB as they'll go to the draft instead. But the bigger problem is that the QB's just aren't as skilled as top QB's in the past. They're more athletic, have stronger arms, etc. That's why I see the entire two high safety debate as nonsense (and it has nothing to do with needing to run the ball more often). I think what has happened is some offensive schemes have made it easy enough for just about any QB to be somewhat efficient at times between the pick plays getting WR's wide open, 1 or 2 read systems and RPO's. So those teams decided to look for more athletic QB's thinking that because they're great athletes they will be great QB's in an easier scheme. And of course...because the NFL is a copycat league other teams look for athletic QB's over skilled QB's even if they have an inferior scheme. I think they're also starting these athletic QB's too soon and not giving them time to actually develop their skills. And thus you get too many QB's that can't beat 2 high safety coverage. It's also important to note that it's all shotgun formation football and that takes away one of the key ways to simply beat Cover-6...quick throws out to the flat, particularly on the quarters coverage side of the ball. That's pretty much what the Niners have done with Purdy. They tried to go with the athletic QB in Lance, but his lack of skill development capped his potential. Then they went with Purdy, an inferior athlete but with superior QB skills...and they've benefited greatly from it. Anyway, this is the NFL which often means that changing their thinking about paying QB's and WR's will usually take a long time. Then one team will have repeated success doing it differently and eventually more teams, but not all, will follow.

[@DBGPodcast]

You hit the nail on the head. It’s a copycat league where teams would rather end up in mediocrity than take career risks and go drastically against the current trends. I think another under looked aspect that Calvin has talked about is how much the college game has been simplified. College offenses have gotten so quick that it’s a lot of easy reads and everything out of the gun or pistol and QBs aren’t asked to do much in the way of reading the field, even more so now that they have helmet comms. While many of them are capable of doing more complex things they just aren’t asked to so they come into the league used to a simple offense. I think the combination of that and the pressure for QBs to start right away as rookies definitely has dumbed down offenses some and although many of these guys do develop in that regard, they’re starting behind the 8 ball and things have to be simplified at least at first

[@TheSinatra]

Good segment

[@ItsDatCajunStuff]

Owners forget football is a team sport. QBs play one side of the ball, but owners want to sell jerseys/tickets/other marketing opportunities, etc. They want to lock up and promote a star a star, not build a winning team, so they give nearly a quarter billion to a guy who's probably going to get hurt by week 9 and sit on the bench.

[@voorachter2733]

If I were a good player on one of those rosters where 60% of budget is reserved for QB and a receiver I would switch teams for better pay purely out of spite and to make a statement.

[@George_M_]

QB money is taken from RB's due to the "don't pay RB's" trend. As long as Mahomes is around that'll continue because the Chiefs get away with it. Paying midtier QBs hundreds of millions is insane.

[@Lermdogg101]

In reality Qb’s aren’t getting Blair too much. The salary cap actually forces this position as well as the other players to make less than market value. If you eliminate the salary cap, these qbs salaries would be way higher.

[@Novaguy60]

It's not about deserving, but what's practical

[@timebomb42]

I wonder, with the way that the QB market is going........ If someday we may get a moneyball style system in the NFL. Somebody who can look at the analytics, look at the pool of money, and buy their way to a championship. Not with elite talent, but with enough talent.

[@tman22rukambe]

LAMVP JACKSON IS SEASONED PERFECTLY!!!

[@kamelkadri2843]

This is why Brady won 7 Superbowls, took less money on purpose to free up room to build a solid team around him, he could have asked for any salary he desired, but he knew it will only lead to a total defeat, This is a team sport

[@southerndandy4910]

Cats are paying Lamborghini prices for Kia’s

[@gmfan09]

I’ve been saying it for years now the only qb worth 50mil or more is Mahomes, he is the only one that has proven he can win a super bowl with a mediocre offense. The chiefs literally say, let’s have a great defense and Mahomes will find a way on offense. And guess what, he has

[@coyotebillkc9185]

2:39 Mitch Trubisky made the Pro Bowl

[@DBGPodcast]

The NVP!

[@usf1250]

Contracts always go up for QBs so idk what world you want the NFL to move to. It’s the way it has always been

[@MobiusCoin]

Can't pay Purdy

[@KvnPel]

How much money you paying them, y'all act like it's coming out of y'all's pocket, how tf you going to say what they deserve

[@gandhithegreat328]

If you can’t win by over paying players then maybe you shouldn’t over pay players and let them walk

[@donaldjgumpofficial5754]

I think it's less about paying good qbs and more about paying receivers. It's an overrated position.

[@Orciwan548]

Miss qbs who want to win more than they want the money. Brady took pay cuts and wow he always had loaded teams. It’s really just a priority problem.

[@XEROCAR3]

Why are we praising QBs that didn't win the Superbowl? Also you cant just get a rookie qb and expect him to be good this video is honestly wrong ash ngl. Only QB winning Superbowls right now is Patrick mahomes no other qb is consistently winning super bowls

[@shake6321]

there is a mathematical rule called the Pareto Effect that should be employed for the qb. pareto states that 80% of the value belongs to 20%. pareto is everywhere in life. this means that 20% of the qbs should make 80% of the money. that’s 7 qbs. if these 7 make 50m each that’s a total of 350m. that means the total qb market should be 437 and the other 25 qbs should make 87m combined. that would bring balance and competition to the system. pittsburgh is basically trying a zero qb strategy. trying to win with a deep team and cheap qb instead of a mid team with a mid qb.

[@kidthekiddo8996]

yall looking at it the wrong way. these guys are resetting the market because they are the next guy. teams aren’t paying “a qb”, they’re all paying THEIR qb. the options are: pay him, or let him walk. if he’s your guy, you’ll do whatever it takes to keep him in the building, that’s the leverage they have

[@raiderfan2010]

Mahomes' annual should be the ceiling of QB pay. Anything above his is laughable for anyone else is laughable

[@Noble-yt1mf]

It’s all Deshaun’s fault and a little bit on tlaw There’s nothing to it if you’re a franchise player you’re gonna get paid Im a lions fan yeah the big time money for Goff may suck but id argue it’s a special case cause of how well my lions have been able to draft and develop talent to lead them turning the ship around

[@Noble-yt1mf]

What’s the alternative A: trade your quarterback and hope someone reaches? And if that happens well who’s gonna be the replacement

[@DBGPodcast]

Goff is a testament to the team building around their QB and putting him in position to succeed instead of paying him first and hoping he’s the hero. They put an excellent team around him and by the time his and Amon Ra’s extensions kick in against the cap in 2026 they’ll already have had 2 full seasons as contenders to make whatever moves. Great job by yall building the team. As for trading your guy that’s a big risk and why teams don’t like taking it but sometimes you have to take a risk like that to not get hamstrung. Look at what the Texans got for Deshaun for example and hope you can get something like that and worst case if not you at least have flexibility. It all boils down to properly evaluating both the ability of your QB and your contending window. Do it right and you end up like the Lions. Do it wrong and you end up like the Cowboys

[@jld593]

Everyone thinks Mahomes should be upset he's not highest paid. Nah, he smiles every time a rival makes a ton and hampers that team's ability to beat him. BTW, Mahomes is the only player in history to win a SB making more than 15% of the cap. And he's done it twice.

[@sneedsfeedandseed420]

Surprised by the quality of discussion had here. Wish more football content sounded like this.

[@steelersnation9822]

Can I join the pod?

[@justicedemocrat9357]

I would add that baker mayfield is on $33 million and is better than most names you mentioned.

[@DBGPodcast]

Top 5 QB! -Preston

[@abel3694]

To be fair mahomes get carried by his defense when he doesn’t have number 1 receivers

[@DBGPodcast]

Testament to the team they built. Emphasized defense and it’s worked. He’s done enough without spending on receivers (although he has looked bad this year they just have won anyway no matter how ugly they look)

[@LaxExplore]

nice game ❤

[@mk_II_]

Warning, Outro Loud as $!^%

[@cadenmartin9004]

If we’re ever gonna see parody in the nfl (we wont) like you guys said the market has to crash so that there are more well rounded teams around the league

[@DBGPodcast]

An NFL parody league would go hard

[@emiliogonzales7073]

Parity, not parody

[@tomfoolery5680]

I got so confused lol. We have parity in the NFL, and we have a parody of the NFL as well. Up in Canada.

[@gups4963]

@@emiliogonzales7073 Parody has been closer to the truth though

[@CtFletcher-eg5zj]

The only qb that deserves to get paid is the one that no other team wanted Lamar after he got paid he won an mvp

[@ricktwist1935]

I believe I heard you say that Patrick. Mahomes is good enough without receivers. Pay attention boy 6 and 6 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, Q BR of around 85 and averaging, 230 yd a game, and then go back and look at last you. 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions averaging about 240 yd.A game he ain't as great as everybody thinks he is