The RBA Is Trapped: With Tarric Brooker...

[@Gonzificus]

When I see headlines that the RBA are going to slash rates, I check the Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield to see what's going on, after the clickbait headline has proved to be clickbait, I check Walk The World for some accurate discourse. Top work guys.

[@cognisant307]

This has been my criticism of immigration, our primary industries (those being industries that bring money into the country and thus make the country wealthier, effectively determining its carrying capacity for a given standard of living) they don't need more people, our primary industries are resource exports, having more workers doesn't equate to more resources, we're not a labor based economy (manufacturing) and we NEVER WILL BE because we're right next to SE Asia where cheap labor is abundant. The only benefit of immigration for Australia (if you can call it that) is that it increases competition for jobs thus suppressing wages, and elevating the demand for housing, during a housing crisis!!! People are struggling to afford rent and groceries but thank god the GDP line is going up, what would we ever do if the line didn't go up?

[@gore1089]

The amount of people in the country hasn't changed since they first closed the country.

[@williamcrossan9333]

Indeed, immigration is diluting the earnings from resources, pushing housing prices, and suppressing wages, forcing more to save save save even more for housing. What a mess...

[@davidlindburg1921]

Government has consciously engineered this: big business want cheap, young, well-educated labour, rising rents and home prices are pivotal for their property portfolios and finally whilst GDP per capita is declining, the country a whole sees year on year GDP growth. If I didn't know better, I'd swear the government thinks the average voter is too dumb to work this out.

[@nicolle_2944]

​@@gore1089so they say. But anyone with eyes knows that is a lie. Especially in Western Sydney

[@gore1089]

@@nicolle_2944 Actually the media say it's gone up. I live in the CBD , it a ghost town, you can't even get a cup of coffee after 5pm except at a 7/11.

[@MrkBO8]

The RBA can do one of two things. Nothing or put rates up. The govt can reduce demand instantly by cancelling immigrant visa's but chooses not to. Inflation getting out of control is a far worse consequence than a few unhappy mortgagee's and companies going broke, out of control inflation will result in food riots 48 hours after mum realises the bub cant be fed.

[@addictiveaussie]

“There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.”

[@billyroberts3907]

Its not companies it the whole banking system

[@brianmaher5886]

8 to go

[@MrkBO8]

Thats cool too. Mergers and bailouts are a minor inconvenience compared to the local supermarket being looted but yes I wonder about the banks exposure to CRE and home loans. St George was bought out by W.PAC b/c of the GFC.@@billyroberts3907

[@billyroberts3907]

If mortgage payers can't pay there loan the risk then falls to the banks and there is trillions in debt for housing across the country that is why they flooded the country with immigration. The banks are at huge risks and shows you how much power they have with national policies. Westpac stated of it's $500 billion worth of loans, 45% were taken out and approved assuming the terminal interest rate would not exceed 3% and we are low 4%'s!!@@MrkBO8

[@pce12345]

TY Martin and Tarric 👋

[@oitzingerpeter]

The US Treasury has to reissue $10 trillion of US government debt this year at between 4.5% and 5.5%. This is massive.

[@giddyupmofo1277]

March I think

[@crazyham]

It's always a pleasure to listen to such clear & intelligent thinking 🙏

[@rc2276]

Tarrics comment at 45min mark is spot on. The economy has major structural problems, most of which are associated with housing. =Less consumption, less productivity, lower birth rates etc.

[@penponds]

Housing issues = access to land to build at affordable levels.

[@MorrisMZin]

Thanks

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Thank you!

[@ElectroFriedBees]

Well my friday night is set now!

[@gwaai2721]

I am glad to say that the Reserve Bank Governor of New Zealand admitted as follows" we ( The reserve Bank of New Zealand, )just work out what level of dividends we need, and then just print the money , it is a really great job, and everyone just believes us. Yes, he openly admitted that of the Reserve bank of New Zealand was a fraudulent organization, just as is the Australian RBA.. "

[@SteveSmith-zz4ih]

People do need to email or ring the ALP Politicians and demand a stop to immigration and put pressure on said Party to reduce inflation, prices are crazy, food is sooo expensive.

[@tonyneville4425]

Better call George Soros then Klaus at the w.e.f

[@chrischong6211]

The present and previous RBA governors are the worst. They kept interest rates too low for too long to let money move into unproductive financial industry. The balance of lending between productive small businesses to real estate has switched from 2 third and one third to one third and 2 third. All RBA governors in the past will make the tough decisions of raising interest rates to bring inflation down. These recent 2 did not. The property market problem are prices and inflation being too high. People can't find enough money to build more properties and builders need to price their construction higher to cover for higher inflation. Inflation must be brought down for industries to become more productive as inflation is bad for business but only good for unproductive financial industry. Low interest rates and inflation are good for the banks. See

[@Kimber-bz9fe]

Tarric is always awesome, wonderful interview thank you to both

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Our pleasure!

[@strategicviewpoint6672]

Bit hard to service an insane mortgage when you are unemployed.

[@strategicviewpoint6672]

PS The redistribution of tax cuts has to be inflationary since lower classes spend more. Chalmers and RBA know that and are full of it.....

[@jbru8725]

Is there any data on the cumulative term left on loans? Eg People that had an estimated remaining 15 years to pay off the loan at a certain payment that refinanced or changed their term out to 30 years to reduce principal payments?

[@MrADTNZ]

2024 going to be a tough year

[@beng7004]

Rates need to climb another 2%

[@michaelgroves6468]

I wish there were more homeless people too.

[@beng7004]

@@michaelgroves6468 you won’t need to wait much longer

[@prizecowproductions]

As per normal great show gentlemen we the public are looking to the future with caution. Aussie Jeff Moore

[@billyroberts3907]

The real question is what sort of collapse we have, most financial pundits mention the Great Depression or 2008 collapse. We and the West look to be more going down the path of the 1991 USSR collapse, 1917 Russian Revolution or the French Revolution. Both Tarric and yourself are too data driven, emotions rule the world and when the gap between the rich and poor gets too big we reach a critical phase that causes social unrest, civil unrest, civil wars, government collapses and violent revolutions.

[@eromnaliuqyaj6288]

Civil unrest should have already occurred, I fear the old addage of 'give them bread and the circus' just works too well now days.

[@billyroberts3907]

What happens if inflation surges more, the money is just paper trash and won't buy nothing. @@eromnaliuqyaj6288

[@davefromdownunder7842]

You mean give them Donut King, Tik Tok & Taylor Swift!

[@awolffromamongus875]

The Friday night event i needed, but didn't know was happening!

[@mitchell.9632]

On housing - not sure on your specifics in that region - but on a global scale the population doubled then doubled again in less than a hundred years. World Population when from 2 billion in 1927 to now over 8 billion. By that measure lots would have to be 1/4 of the size (not factoring multi-story units) to maintain the same price adjusted for inflation.

[@zvonimirbonanza7286]

Noice, so beyond nice!

[@crazyham]

Martin, Can you look into why Darwin Units/apartments have shown similar or higher capital growth over free standing houses ? I heard this elsewhere & It had me scratching my head 🤔 If true, Darwin is behaving differenrly to all the other capitals.

[@cruzrv4399]

16:00 we’ve travelled from Kiama NSW to cairn’s QLD over the past 2 years. We’ve interviewed many boomers along the way in caravan parks living in their caravans. All we hear are stories of how they had to sell their house to give their kids a cash deposit for a mortgage or they’ve vacated their house so their kids could move in or they’ve taken their investment property off the market to free it up for their 30 to 50 year old kids. The bank of mum and dad and nan and pop is responsible for an huge amount of division within the community. I’ve met 70year olds living on their 35k boat so their kids can have a house. And not just a handful. Up north many boomers are doing this.

[@nicolle_2944]

How is the mum, dad and Nana responsible for division? If they didn't help their family, they would be homeless too.

[@Billy_BrownCow]

​@@nicolle_2944 Being bystanders. Letting things happen and now they are involved in it because they have to seek alternatives

[@vmura]

what a f country the gov f us

[@tomsoleymanbik3266]

Martin please take note. perhaps interview Tarric weekly with a bi monthly on current topics and the other times do a specific topic deep dive. And don't do interviews with the fraudster that you do just because you pity him. Nugget news isn't worth it.

[@thewanderer2041]

Who’s the fraudster?

[@thingformob]

I disagree. I like the interviews with Tarric and Nuggets News.

[@Discoworx]

I won't watch anything with Nugget now.

[@jimmyhvy2277]

Housing is like Japan , and now China . A Lot more Housing Cost to go yet , X100 times ! So Buy , Buy , Buy !

[@_zack__2671]

Albo is a joke

[@chrischong6211]

Sometimes it feels like the top government people are trying to sabotage us. Abo brought into Australia 600000 migrants in his first year. He could not have not envisaged the housing problem it will cause. Then he tries to give away the Australian sovereignty to some foreign entity by legislating that RBA has final say in the financial matters of the country. Already RBA refused to bring our gold back from UK for safekeeping as they don't belong to us if we don't hold them. Central banks seem to operate like a cartel in the world.

[@jazzamac3796]

So what's a house really worth?

[@brucewayne3633]

In the 1950's you could owner build a basic house for under $2k...

[@jazzamac3796]

@brucewayne3633 can they continue to inflate away debt or does the house of cards fall? I don't think we can stop this train wreck

[@cind_errs]

Whatever the demand is willing to pay for it at that point of time. Supply then dictates if it goes up or down as it dictates if the sellers are competing or buyers are competing. Lots of supply and prices go down as people compete to sell house and lower price to get sale. Lack of supply and prices go up as people compete to buy a house and higher bidder wins. Demand vs supply dictates price. Increase population with low house supply turbo charges demand. Labor made a big boo boo as they went for big Australia without considering how everyone will be housed or they did I it on purpose to fudge GDP.

[@richarddobosz6174]

Very good presentation thank you compulsory listening

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

So nice of you

[@emailsusan]

And a lot more divorces effecting the rental market, whilst saving for entry level houses.

[@nicolle_2944]

And with the stress of cost of living increases there will be more

[@dan2304]

While both Martin and Tarric's work is valuable and topical the under lying causes are not being discussed. The profitability of the production of commodities and available reserves declining with declining quality of ores requires much higher energy input with energy commodities also in declining quantity and quality.

[@penponds]

That’s only a factor if alternative sources are not facing same reduction in ore quality. Also it depends on which mineral you’re talking about … iron ore ≠ nickel ores ≠ lithium ≠ gold.

[@dan2304]

@@penponds Firstly Au is not in short supply for industrial purposes. While Fe, Al, Si and Na, are not in short supply they all require massive energy inputs. The reserves of most other elements are in decline in both reserves and ore quality including fossil fuels. Petroleum natural gas CH4 to bitumen that supplies about 55% of global energy is in decline and while CH4 is increasing oil is in decline. The geology of these minerals has been well understood for near 70 years, there is little left to be found. The projected needs to go low emissions is over 10 times available production.

[@russellbyrnes7215]

It's typical of economists. They completely ignore the material issues going on underneath of which the financial woes are symptomatic.

[@dan2304]

@@russellbyrnes7215 Not only that but economists use a variable unit of measure, currencies, analogous to using an elastic tape measure. Consequently projections are based on nothing meaningful. The real currency of any system/economy is the availability and cost of energy. Petroleum has started global declining production, some 55% of global energy. Coal will follow with declining production within a decade or two.

[@williamcrossan9333]

Indeed, the RBA (and us!) are in one hell of a pickle. Many aspects of the economy are quite weak, yet we have this housing problem... I.e. It's going mental. Basically housing is set to consume the economy, and there's not much we can do about it (we could simply reduce immigration, but that's a no go zone).

[@grizzz6884]

and if look at the rest of the world , the same thing is happening every country . so it is clear there is a higher level of control

[@darrynwiley6689]

Actually housing has not consumed the economy, it IS the economy. Along with digging holes, this is all AU has to show.

[@chrisruss9861]

I see Labor has gone a bit coy about negative gearing.

[@gore1089]

They lost the previous election trying to do something about it.

[@williamcrossan9333]

Please. Negative gearing is as safe as houses. NO Aussie government will do ANYTHING to risk house prices.

[@Rick-wy4od]

If residential properties are actually still negatively geared (after the stratospheric rent rises), they are unlikely to be, once interest rates drop. I can't see rents dropping after rates drop.

[@DJ99777]

I think we headed into deep depression style recessions.

[@williamcrossan9333]

35:00: Indeed, the RBA will cut, even if the inflation rate is too high. Super high immigration is causing high inflation, but poor outcomes in much of the other metrics. Basically we have proper stagflation.

[@ralphsimpson4593]

The housing market already heating up just on the speculation of rate cuts.

[@Drakesy]

Hmmmm Unemployment on the rise Immigration still not slowing down. Home prices still climbing Number of homes for sale starting to climb. Somethings not adding up.

[@penponds]

Couple things there. Immigration is an externality - not an inevitable component of the economic system Look at number of residential sale transactions rather than number of houses for sale. V low days on market because buyers still thinking they have to jump because prices will only keep rising and they can still afford to buy at today’s prices. Increasing number of houses for sale is a function of longer days on market, which indicates buyers less convinced about making offers because affordability inevitably reducing. More houses out of reach of more people. It’s not the number of people who decide sell, it’s the number of buyers prepared to buy at a given price level. When the latter diminishes, rate of increase will slow, but overall lack of total housing stock will keep upwards pressure on prices. When developers won’t build apartments because they need to sell for around $880k (Perth) to make a profit, and they know they can’t convince buyers to spend that price on a 2 bed property, that’s evidence of how affordability impacts both how much property is on the market at any one time and also how much new stock is being built. Cash buyers are ok. Those needing mortgages are screwed.

[@davef5916]

Bitcoin is the escape hatch

[@veijotirronen2010]

But the people have to stop listening to the BS on Mainstream media.

[@banjerism7281]

The RBA is trapped into inflating the currency

[@RealJamesWillis]

Let’s triple interest rates when house price / income ratios have tripled, and wonder why there’s chaos

[@TruthWarrior1]

Well dropping interest rates before that cause the house price issue.

[@jcisme]

I think Bullock was a DEI pick..

[@philmelb1022]

Still is

[@iancormie9916]

If. The government wants the Ausie dollare to drop like the Turkish, Argentinian and Venezuelan currencies, they have to increase interest rates and kill inflation. - in other words, defend the currency. On the housing ccost issue, interest only mortages should not be permitted. No matter what happens, some people are going to be hurt. Root cause of much of this is deficit spending and artificially low interest rates.

[@gore1089]

April May, 2022 ..? Inflation was 6.3 percent but interest rates didn't really go up until Labor got into office.hmm?

[@JBLegal09]

Glad I'm not the only one who was shocked at the response, or lack thereof, by the RBA re the Bank of M&D.

[@peterwakeman9930]

Depression government spent money smaller population base..... great government benefits as they started so beneficial payments

[@berniestar1490]

Tarric, the RBA lost $43billion last year. Where did it go and is it ever coming back? Will taxpayers pay for this loss?

[@bondisteve3617]

Ta.

[@BB-qp5xo]

I have some inside word that in addition to the bank of mum and dad, 40-60% of private school fee invoices are going to a different address (wink wink with the same surname). Source: some administrators in prominent schools.

[@jimmyhvy2277]

Family lending money to each other has been going on forever ! Why is it Bad ?

[@joek292]

It’s now just perpetuating the wealth and housing inequality. Wouldn’t necessarily have needed help when houses were 3.5x household income

[@Rick-wy4od]

I cant see a reality where cpi and unemployment dont both rise, moving forward. Our (artificial) population growth, driven by a Canberra sized citys worth of immigration every 12 months, would be causing massive distortions in supply/demand for employment and housing. The only demographics doing well atm, are boomers (living off interest bearing accounts and/or multiple investment properties), or childless couples, with high disposable income and investment properties. The rest of us battlers are screwed as we see our purcahsing power evaporate.

[@mikestanmore2614]

The RBA is trapped with Tarric Brooker? Two.go out, only one comes back. The RBA doesn't stand a chance.

[@peterwakeman9930]

That goods and services tax GST taking more money from the economy

[@chmoss6310]

💡🙏🇦🇺👍

[@downtoearth1950]

Amazing how inconvenient data is ignored.

[@gerrry24]

Can you do live stream with tarrick?

[@neilmccoy9390]

I think that excluding house prices from CPI is a sensible thing; and including rent levels is also sensible. We have to ask what the CPI is used for. Many fed govt benefits are increased or influenced by CPI, such as the aged pension. Including house purchase prices as part of a measure in determining the age pension level makes no sense.

[@joek292]

It only makes no sense now because the housing price rises have been insane. They weren’t like this prior to the 70’s

[@Not_sure_why]

Tarric t shirt is sponsored by specsaver

[@Andrew-zw9fi]

Zombie Economics !

[@williamcrossan9333]

I am expecting the RBA to fold. May 2024 is the date.

[@gmartin5037]

Inflation running at 4.1%....Sure....My car insurance policy went up 100%

[@grizzz6884]

they will do what the BIS tells them to do .

[@dan2304]

War is an ultimate consumer and steel is the ultimate war commodity.

[@grizzz6884]

some quick math , will show that investing , is the inflation .

[@gore1089]

Can anyone explain how Albo has done so much damage to housing with less than 2 years in power, a trill dollar debt he inherited, which means there's nothing left in the kitty and even if there was, he can't do anything without making inflation worse.?

[@WalkTheWorldDFA]

Super high migration and a housing policy which can never deliver... plus back flips from before coming into power.

[@gore1089]

If you look at any graph in the past 4 years you will see a huge dip, then a rise 2 years later, when people who left the country come back as immigration and temporary visas holders on multiple categories resumed. Four years later, we are at best population neutral. Another thing that nobody mentions is, x s morbidities from 6 to 13 % since 2022 and it's not going down. Also for everyone of these people there are 10 in the working age population, who simply can no longer work or function properly due to illness. We all know that Labor or any other party can do nothing with housing right now. It's mere window dressing, there's no money left, inflation is not conquered and housing is not even included in the CPI.

[@nicolle_2944]

​@@gore1089not true. Whilst both sides have sold out this country, Albo set a new record on immigration over his Labor buddy Rudd. If he wanted to stop the housing crisis, then quite simply stop the immigration and international students. If you cannot see the insane increases come out to the flood plain of Sydney. Where it was once rural, farmland and home to native fauna. It's now a concrete jungle for masses of new immigrants. And our roads are carparks. The trees are gone, and it will be a heat bowl.

[@nicolle_2944]

And let's not forget that the debt that you say he inherited, he was fully on board with creating. That debt and damage was caused by mandates inflicted by him, Scomo, Dictator Dan, Gladys, Pallachook, McGowan and all of the other psychotic/power wielding Premiers, Health Ministers and Beaurecrats that played a part. Including every Australian that went along with their insanity of lockdowns and small business closures.

[@alexwest4629]

I will never vote conservative mate, but I actually can't stand Albo. His immigration policy is fk'd and leading us to way worse quality of life which is ironic as our 'quality of life' is exactly why people want to emigrate to Australia...