The Relevance of Dividend Irrelevance

  Рет қаралды 84,760

Ben Felix

Ben Felix

2 жыл бұрын

Dividends are irrelevant as a predictor of differences in expected returns. Building investment portfolios based on dividends results in lower expected returns when yield is in high demand, a lack of diversification, tax inefficiency, and an arbitrary retirement spending rule dictated by corporations. Basing investment or consumption decisions on dividends does not make sense.
Referenced in this video:
The Dividend Disconnect: drive.google.com/file/d/15Z94...
Settling the Size Matter: drive.google.com/file/d/1G3da...
Stock Market Returns and Consumption: drive.google.com/file/d/1kVBK...
Consuming Dividends: academic.oup.com/rfs/advance-...
Should You Chase Dividend Stocks to Combat Inflation and Rate Hikes?: www.dimensional.com/us-en/ins...
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Follow the Rational Reminder on:
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Visit PWL Capital: www.pwlcapital.com/teams/pass...
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Пікірлер: 610
@4CiiD3
@4CiiD3 2 жыл бұрын
@Ben Felix 3:28 "Driving up their expected returns" You mean driving down ?
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
I said the wrong word. Should have been down (prices up, expected returns down). We have clipped that out to avoid confusion for other viewers.
@nhutnguyen5089
@nhutnguyen5089 2 жыл бұрын
@@fungjungkung "Ben Felix is never wrong" Where is the lie though?
@plamenvasilev
@plamenvasilev 2 жыл бұрын
@@fungjungkung Mr. Felix can be wrong as he's human, just like all of us. Do your own DD. Ben is just helping you out with directions.
@chessdad182
@chessdad182 2 жыл бұрын
@@fungjungkung I've seen other KZbinrs like him. Arrogant guys with a poor track record of results. Just unsubscribe and move on.
@chessdad182
@chessdad182 2 жыл бұрын
@@BenFelixCSI I would drop the entire video. Your approach would have had terrible results in 2022. How can you feel justified giving such poor advice? I would be curious what your results are for your clients in 2022? How much did they lose?
@xXWickedWazzaXx
@xXWickedWazzaXx 2 жыл бұрын
I love how Ben's outfit gets more casual over time. He started off in a blazer and shirt, to just a collared shirt, to a polo shirt, to sweaters, hoodies and now a simple t-shirt. I call this the efficient outfit hypothesis. The casualness of Ben's outfit reflects the total amount of economic information he has imparted to the world at any given time.
@muffemod
@muffemod 2 жыл бұрын
🤣🤣🤣
@hermanlau4431
@hermanlau4431 2 жыл бұрын
Agreed, I don't care what he wears as long as he can provide some useful information.
@xJoeKing
@xJoeKing 2 ай бұрын
Shirtless 2025?
@gitpush3318
@gitpush3318 2 жыл бұрын
The only finance-related content on youtube that I take seriously.
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 2 жыл бұрын
To paraphrase The Beetles, 'Ben is all you need.'
@seniorspam2453
@seniorspam2453 2 жыл бұрын
You’re telling us you know how to beat the market consistently? What’s your alpha and how do you know it’s statistically significant?
@seniorspam2453
@seniorspam2453 2 жыл бұрын
You’re telling us you know how to beat the market consistently? What’s your alpha and how do you know it’s statistically significant?
@Unknown-jt1jo
@Unknown-jt1jo 2 жыл бұрын
@@MrSupernova111 The vast majority of professional active managers under-perform the market (after fees).
@gitpush3318
@gitpush3318 2 жыл бұрын
@@MrSupernova111 You definitly should learn from Ben and start a KZbin channel. It's a good financial decision.
@jonasmuller7437
@jonasmuller7437 9 ай бұрын
While I'm fully aware of the dividend irrelevance, I tend to prefer ETFs or stocks that pay out dividends for a purely psychological reason. Getting those monthly payments and seeing it grow keeps me motivated to invest continuously espacially in bear markets. Since no one is a perfect rationalist or homo oeconomicus i find that to be the "strength" of portfolios that have some amount of dividend payout.
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 9 ай бұрын
Monthly? Are you thinking of bond ETFs? This video pertains to stock dividends, which are different than bond dividends. As far as I know, stocks don't pay monthly dividends. Stocks issue dividends on a quarterly, semiannually, and/or annual basis.
@jonasmuller7437
@jonasmuller7437 9 ай бұрын
@@alankoslowski9473 Well if you have different stocks, you can get dividends at different times and if you're inclined you could even find a stock for every month of the year. Also i have investet in a REIT, that does pay monthly.
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 9 ай бұрын
@@jonasmuller7437 What stocks pay monthly dividends? I don't know of any. REITs aren't the same as stocks.
@andretaffarello9116
@andretaffarello9116 2 жыл бұрын
That smirk while crushing the dreams of dividend investors is so cruel. I love it
@thynnus2422
@thynnus2422 2 жыл бұрын
@@chessdad182 I have to admit that after watching the performance chasing and people claiming that value is dead over the last several years, I have enjoyed watching growth tank and value hold steady. This could turn out to be quite an "I told you so" year.
@futeish3468
@futeish3468 2 жыл бұрын
@@chessdad182 look at the bigger picture
@DividendGuy
@DividendGuy 2 жыл бұрын
I have the same smirk when I look at PWL capital returns vs mine ;-) hahaha!
@kevinswift8654
@kevinswift8654 2 жыл бұрын
I'm quite enjoying seeing the indexes tank while I receive regular payments.
@gregwessels7205
@gregwessels7205 2 жыл бұрын
@@DividendGuy Fatal stab in the heart.😂😂
@Carlos-kv6hx
@Carlos-kv6hx 2 жыл бұрын
Every time you put up a video, I take out pen and paper. Thanks for spreading the information and please continue doing these!
@Gomangoman11
@Gomangoman11 2 жыл бұрын
Ben, you mentioned variable spending being more efficient over one's lifetime than a fixed spending regime. I'm unfamiliar with this, could you make a video on it in the future?
@health_and_finance
@health_and_finance 2 жыл бұрын
I not only watch Ben's videos and listen to his podcasts. I learn it all, take notes and revise them. Ben Felix is an educator of academic investing.
@tom6039
@tom6039 2 жыл бұрын
“academic”
@nickdoyle-achievefinancial2464
@nickdoyle-achievefinancial2464 2 жыл бұрын
Great video! I'm not a dividend investor, but I think many people are excited by getting the regular dividend payments. If that's what motivates them and gets them to be more consistent, I guess it's good for them.
@asegal4677
@asegal4677 2 жыл бұрын
Good point. If it motivates them to invest in the first place. Same argument in favor of expensive money managers.
@739jep
@739jep 2 жыл бұрын
Yeh I think it helps them stay invested , which is a beneficial behaviour even if it is based on flawed reasoning
@jeffsim4191
@jeffsim4191 2 жыл бұрын
Exactly my thought. Knowledge of coming dividends can affect the savings/investing rate.... Which, especially early, is much more important than rate of return.
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 2 жыл бұрын
The problem, as Ben says, is targeting dividends reduces diversification resulting in less consistent returns.
@jeffsim4191
@jeffsim4191 2 жыл бұрын
@@alankoslowski9473 this is problematic assuming an investor puts the same amount into the market. If investor A: is excited about dividend investing because it seems like it is a cash printing machine and invests 25% of their income, they will almost always end up in a better place than someone who doesn't care about dividends but only puts in 10% of their income. The psychological effect of seeing "free money" produced holds a lot of weight for or a lot of people.... even if they are mistaken in their assumption it is in fact free money.
@anaestereo810
@anaestereo810 2 жыл бұрын
I take Felix videos seriously...not just entreteinment here.
@krdxz
@krdxz 2 жыл бұрын
I think he is the best source of knowledge for investors on youtube.
@montanamax4153
@montanamax4153 2 жыл бұрын
Yes!!! I think Felix is pretty awesome 👏🏾
@JosephCarlsonShow
@JosephCarlsonShow 2 жыл бұрын
Hey ben, one question. In your last video you said "picking stocks because they pay growing dividends is no different than picking stocks that start with the letter A". The suggestion here of course is that whether or not a stock pays a growing dividend is totally irrelevant. Your own research on this subject seems to conflict with that earlier statement. This is from the PWL report: "By nature of the fact that they pay consistent and growing dividends, it is sensible to think that dividend growth stocks are likely to be larger stocks with robust profitability that reinvest conservatively - robust profits and conservative investment should result in the cash to pay consistent growing dividends. It would also be reasonable to expect that companies with long histories of growing their dividend to have low prices relative to book value of their assets - growth stocks with high prices relative to their book value do not tend to be dividend growth stocks" Your regression testing shows that dividend growth has worked as a filter for many of the factors that led to outperformance. This seems to stand in contrast of your earlier statement that picking a growing dividend stock is no different than picking a stock that starts with the letter "A". Also, don't you think the fact that they do pay a dividend could impact their level of reinvestment? How are you supposed to predict future companies that have low reinvestment better than investing in ones that are expected to pay a growing dividend? I know your point of the video is that you can bypass the dividend filter and jump straight to those factors, but I wanted to clarify this point.
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
I guess you are not familiar with the letter A index. This was a very geeky joke in the older video. I'm glad someone noticed!. An index consisting of stocks that start with the letter A has outperformed the market, dividend growth, tech, BRK, and pretty much anything else you can imagine for the last 20+ years. It also has positive loadings to common risk factors and a statistically significant alpha. Of course, there is no theoretical basis to believe that the letter A tells us anything about differences in expected returns, or that we should use it as a proxy for factor exposures going forward. I still think it's a pretty good analogy for dividends. _don't you think the fact that they do pay a dividend could impact their level of reinvestment?_ No. This is the whole point of the theorem. Given investment policy, dividend policy is irrelevant, or stated differently, dividend policy is a financing decision (which is irrelevant to valuation). This is a good writeup: www.chicagobooth.edu/review/why-merton-miller-remains-misunderstood _The Miller-Modigliani model innovatively identified the factors to hold constant in order to isolate dividend policy: the cash flows coming into the firm and the real investments being made. That left a gap, which is a constant amount once these are fixed. However, the dividend payout could be larger or smaller than this amount because the firm could issue or retire shares. This rendered dividends (given investment policy) irrelevant to the value of the firm except in cases where dividends revealed information or had tax implications (such as the retained earnings tax that the United States had in the 1940s, which made paying out cash a sensible investment policy)._ The predictor for future investment that is used in models like the five factor model and in line investment strategies like Dimensional and Avantis funds is growth in the book value of assets (reinvestment). Past asset growth predicts future asset growth.
@JosephCarlsonShow
@JosephCarlsonShow 2 жыл бұрын
​@@BenFelixCSI You're right, I had never heard of the A index! What an odd but interesting fact. I think I understand what you're saying - all else equal, if two firms have the same investment policy, one of them wouldn't be more valuable simply by paying a dividend. Makes total sense. I realize the focus on this video is centered around dividends, but do you hold the same views then on buybacks as well? Is that equally as irrelevant - should investors favor any capital allocation strategy (dividend/buybacks/cash/reinvestment)? Also interesting in the article you linked that firm cutting dividend shouldn't be viewed as "cutting the dividend" as much as "investing in cash". Great way to put it.
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
@@JosephCarlsonShow I agree with how you summarized it. _all else equal, if two firms have the same investment policy, one of them wouldn't be more valuable simply by paying a dividend_ I would expand on this. The corollary is that given investment policy and profitability, dividends should not be assumed to contain information about expected returns. For security selection, I do not believe that investors need to look for characteristics beyond size, relative price, profitability, and investment for the purpose of identifying differences in expected returns. Maybe momentum should be a secondary consideration. There could be reasons separate from expected returns to consider other characteristics. Buybacks have the same issue as dividends in terms of their informational content.
@JosephCarlsonShow
@JosephCarlsonShow 2 жыл бұрын
@@BenFelixCSI Makes sense! Appreciate the reply Ben, have a great weekend
@stevec.7017
@stevec.7017 2 жыл бұрын
you would have done very well with stocks that start with the letter A; Apple, Amazon, Abbvie.
@DavidYoung81
@DavidYoung81 2 жыл бұрын
As a broad index investor, only value I see in dividends is they (at the current moment in time) payout from typically value stocks which is automatically reinvested proportionally to the SNP500 which is at the moment is top-heavy with growth stocks.
@kimmux
@kimmux 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks again Ben your efforts are greatly appreciated.
@SpeedOfDarknesss
@SpeedOfDarknesss 2 жыл бұрын
Anecdotally, I have noticed a strong bias against companies that were paying dividends and then stop. If the stop was driven by financial difficulty for the company, then a negative reaction may be warranted, but often the reaction is negative regardless of the underlying fundamentals (such as a company that stops dividends to reinvest in growth internally).
@catlover666666
@catlover666666 2 жыл бұрын
I think the issue is that many companies are so afraid of their stock price being demolished that they continue paying dividends even when it is no longer a good decision. Therefore, a stop in a regular dividend is usually a good sign that the company is struggling. I actually can't think of any dividend paying company that stopped their dividend when they were doing well
@SpeedOfDarknesss
@SpeedOfDarknesss 2 жыл бұрын
@@catlover666666 yeah I don't think they are very common for the reasons you highlighted. The examples I found were small caps, and it might be more prevalent there than with large caps. Since large caps generally have access to cheaper financing, they may opt to keep the dividend stable and issue more debt for expansion instead.
@Georgggg
@Georgggg 4 ай бұрын
These biases is easy alpha for investor, espesically on emeging markets, where hedge funds not creeped yet.
@me0101001000
@me0101001000 Жыл бұрын
This was extremely informative for me. While I am mostly a dividend investor due to my interest 8n building passive income streams to support myself and those I care about, it was a good reminder that this should not be the only driver in my investment strategy. Thanks, Ben!
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
Dividends shouldn't be a driver at all. That's the entire point of this vid.
@domkaz1669
@domkaz1669 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for best content on youtube!
@deletaylor2887
@deletaylor2887 2 жыл бұрын
Hi Ben, does this video apply to covered call ETFs and split share corps where the underlying dividend is only part of the yield? My thinking is if you can get a higher yield through a mixed product like these, you can continue to yield long after you would have sold your shares. Thanks for making us think differently about risk with your great videos.
@pjee
@pjee Жыл бұрын
Hi Ben, big fan of your videos. I have a potential critique to your repeated analysis on this topic, and in particular your final comment about targeting factors directly. I recently got into q-factors and its advantages over FF factors. I've been trying to find an easy way to q-factor exposure and it seems that dividend (aristocrat) ETFs are the only kind of ETFs that have good exposure to investment-to-assets (I/A). (Value stocks do not have sufficient exposure. I don't want to use Sector-specific ETFs, as per your video advice.) How else could I directly target the q-Factors and specifically investment-to-assets (I/A), without using dividend ETFs?
@ohanlonj8476
@ohanlonj8476 2 жыл бұрын
Can't get enough of these videos🔥
@m136dalie
@m136dalie 2 жыл бұрын
Always glad to see another video from this channel. I was wondering if you were planning on making another video on bonds? Specifically how people invest in bonds, how they're influenced by maturation dates & interest rates etc... Your videos have convinced me ETFs are superior but it would be interesting to learn the fundamentals of bond investing.
@Jamal_Ginsberg
@Jamal_Ginsberg 2 жыл бұрын
You: Dividend Growth Investing The Guy She Tells You Not To Worry About: Ben Felix Keep up the amazing work Ben!
@OkaS14A
@OkaS14A 2 жыл бұрын
The Guy She Tells You Not To Worry About: Underperforms dividend growth investors Guess she was right
@w7855
@w7855 2 жыл бұрын
Great video. See lots of “dividend investors” these days. On the flip side, see too many “growth investors” as well. The reality is you should have some of both. I buy the whole market and sprinkle in some individual stocks where I have high conviction. May or may not be best for total return, but keeps me motivated to invest and helps me pay attention to the world around me.
@Mosesusorer
@Mosesusorer 2 жыл бұрын
Sorry to burst your bubble, but your strategy isn’t the best for total return (on a risk-adjusted basis, at least)
@w7855
@w7855 2 жыл бұрын
@@Mosesusorer that’s exactly what I said lol, I’m aware of that and okay with that, as it keeps me motivated to continue to invest as opposed to spend on impulses and material things I don’t need. A psychological tactic more than a portfolio one.
@stevekrause5931
@stevekrause5931 2 жыл бұрын
I do the same thing.
@Mosesusorer
@Mosesusorer 2 жыл бұрын
@@w7855 Um that’s NOT what you said. “May or may not be best for total return…” is what you said, opening up a serious possibility that you might do better than average even though we know you most likely won’t doing what you’re doing
@marcoderfinanzchemiker841
@marcoderfinanzchemiker841 2 жыл бұрын
@@Mosesusorer By decreasing diversification he increases the dispersion. So he might be right. Some people following his strategy will gain more and some other will gain less return.
@vicfontaine5130
@vicfontaine5130 Жыл бұрын
Great video, love to see one on income funds like enhanced covered call ETF's gaining popularity
@abdullahsani100
@abdullahsani100 Жыл бұрын
This is a timeless gem
@asegal4677
@asegal4677 2 жыл бұрын
I think you finally addressed the real allure of dividend investing at 6:50: Dividend investing feels like getting a paycheck.
@nicholasjaworski9368
@nicholasjaworski9368 2 жыл бұрын
I mean, I make more in dividends from ATT in a portfolio that I inherited than I do from my full time pharmacy job. So essentially it is a paycheck?
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 2 жыл бұрын
@@nicholasjaworski9368 No, it's no more a paycheck than price-appreciation. Remember, dividend issuance reduces stock price proportionately, so it's no different than selling the same amount in shares.
@Bball38
@Bball38 2 жыл бұрын
@@nicholasjaworski9368 Did you watch the video?
@asegal4677
@asegal4677 2 жыл бұрын
@@alankoslowski9473 Pretty much right and it's worth adding that dividends force taxation whereas price appreciation does not unless a sale is voluntarily made (on gains) so one can otherwise compound gains tax free in that respect vs. a dividend.
@asegal4677
@asegal4677 2 жыл бұрын
@@nicholasjaworski9368 You might be shortchanging yourself as you potentially earn more income with other investments on that capital especially net of tax and adjusted for risk. Watch the video back again
@alfredo8431
@alfredo8431 2 жыл бұрын
I always have to watch your videos more than once!
@MoementumFinance
@MoementumFinance 10 ай бұрын
Another masterpiece and empirical video 👏
@smit5983
@smit5983 2 жыл бұрын
Ben might not have the reach of more popular, controversial wealth management gurus, but this kind of content does WAY more good than the gurus. I wish the PWL capital link was FIRST in the description, like "I work for PWL Capital: " then the hyperlink. This is the kind of guy I want managing my capital.
@mpo9T0
@mpo9T0 2 жыл бұрын
Although I agree in the data, does the same hold true if the capital gains inclusion rate rises from 50% to 100%? Hypothetical of course but there seems to be some rumblings that the inclusion rate will increase. Are dividends still irrelevant in that case?
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
It is very rare that 100% of an asset sale is a capital gain, so even at 100% inclusion, and depending on the tax bracket, gains may be more tax efficient. It would certainty change the numbers though.
@felipe741
@felipe741 2 жыл бұрын
Hi Ben! Love your content! What software do you use to record the videos? Do you do it by yourself? Thanks!!
@tchuloguzman432
@tchuloguzman432 2 жыл бұрын
This is serious stuff fantastic explanation
@ricardochang681
@ricardochang681 2 жыл бұрын
Ben, thanks for the videos. Always great content. Would you consider adding a bullet recap of all your points at the end of your videos? It would be a great memory help of all your points.
@commonsense-og1gz
@commonsense-og1gz 2 жыл бұрын
is this about using dividends for reinvestment into more stock, or for just retirement handout? i would have thought that you use dividends, to help snowball a portfolio through reinvestment.
@cameronpiper8349
@cameronpiper8349 2 жыл бұрын
If I heard him correctly, Ben would rely on risk premiums associated with things like company size and value to grow his portfolio. As he said in his previous video on the same topic, dividends are an important part of total stock returns, and should "snowball", but that doesn't mean dividends are predictors of total returns.
@naidnarnya9448
@naidnarnya9448 2 жыл бұрын
This is about specifically buying dividend paying stocks only - if we are a rational investor, we are indifferent to whether a security pays a dividend or not. The snowball effect from dividends is no different than the snowball effect of non dividend paying stocks
@skipkapur1
@skipkapur1 Жыл бұрын
I disagree. I was able to retire at 54 and live off dividends. Dividends provide significant emotional stability and a practical tool - cash - for investors to live on.
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
Emotional appeal isn't the same as practical appeal. As for living off of returns, you can do this as long as they're equal to or higher than your expenses regardless of the return sources. If your investments don't pay dividends, but the price appreciates at a rate higher than your expense, you can still live off your investments.
@CFH298
@CFH298 9 ай бұрын
@@alankoslowski9473 Dividends don’t remove the principal. You’re slaughtering the goose, dividends are the eggs.
@SeaJay4444
@SeaJay4444 8 ай бұрын
​@@CFH298 It feels that way but isn't actually true. When a company issues a dividend, the stock price goes down by the same amount. When you don't reinvest a dividend, you are actually making a withdrawal. It's literally the same thing as selling some of your stock.
@samcurran8124
@samcurran8124 2 жыл бұрын
Great video. I like your explanation on financial topics. Can you make a video on future of algorithm trading
@demilishing
@demilishing 2 жыл бұрын
Not all dividends are the same, goes without saying. Easiest math for someone fluent in math or those barely gradated highschool is yield + growth = longterm return (without multiple expansion/compression). Very few are able to beat the market as they miss the forest for the trees. Like Buffett said, investing isn't hard. The hard part is the temperament and patience.
@SmellyBeanCheese
@SmellyBeanCheese Жыл бұрын
Hi Ben, are dividends truly irrelevant in all situations? For example in the recent pullback SCHD experienced less of a hit than the total stock market, wouldn't accumulating said fund in such a time help your money weather the bear market storm while aiding in growth from the purchase of additional shares at a lower price with the dividend? The fund itself is centered around companies with good financial standing so wouldn't it's addition to a portfolio help with diversification vs going purely with a total market fund like VTI which is heavily weighted toward tech?
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
This can be done without a dividend bias though. As Ben said, there are dividend-neutral funds/strategies that target such companies without the unnecessary dividend preference.
@AlexFlavell
@AlexFlavell 2 жыл бұрын
Ben Felix hits it out of the park!! Per usual.
@Coda1850
@Coda1850 2 жыл бұрын
Such a gem of a video. Dividend investors will not accept reality though.
@delinquense
@delinquense 2 жыл бұрын
As I watch your growth stocks hit their 52 week lows, day in and day out, while most of my portfolio has held up well. And yes, I will add some of these growth stocks to my portfolio when they get low enough.
@sleepless2541
@sleepless2541 2 жыл бұрын
@@delinquense exposure to the value factor through value etfs would also help you hedge against market downturn if that's what you want, no need for dividend stocks
@rz4039
@rz4039 2 жыл бұрын
This is terrible advice. In 2022 YTD, the Value to Growth (long dividend paying, short non dividend paying stock) factor is up almost 30%. Whether to chase dividend is largely conditional on the level of Treasury Yield as well as Federal Reserve Action. The ultra-loose monetary policy regime from 2008 to 2021 may not come back in a decade and if so growth stocks that don't pay dividend would likely sevely under-perform. This auther basically have no idea what he's talking about. Most of his videos are either very basic financial knowledge or geared to a very specific Macro regime that may not come back ever.
@rz4039
@rz4039 2 жыл бұрын
@@sleepless2541 Yes, but value ETFs hold dividend stocks and pays a dividend......so what do you mean? If you mean avoid tax on dividend then try use total return swaps, which requires a lot more capital.
@sleepless2541
@sleepless2541 2 жыл бұрын
@@rz4039 i was saying that there isn't any need to focus specifically on dividend paying stocks, it's fine to hold dividend stocks too in ETFs as well as non-dividend paying stocks, i was just telling the other dude that there's no need to focus specifically on dividend paying companies, not talking about taxes nor total return swap either
@Feds_the_Freds
@Feds_the_Freds 2 жыл бұрын
Yes! Finally ;) Ok, good video to ask my long lasting question: Could it be possible, that avoiding dividends boosts portfolio performace (because of tax negatives of dividends) or is the lost diversification too much? thx :)
@Frinans
@Frinans 2 жыл бұрын
Nice one! Loved the title as well
@pw_jc
@pw_jc 2 жыл бұрын
I don't think anyone was arguing that dividend stocks will outperform growth, everyone knows getting dividends today comes with a tradeoff of some growth tomorrow.
@sleepless2541
@sleepless2541 2 жыл бұрын
hey ben what's your take on quantitative value etfs such as QVAL and IVAL by alpha architect?
@famir47
@famir47 2 жыл бұрын
3:30 was that supposed to be "driving down expected returns"? Great video as always.
@tiraelsedai
@tiraelsedai 2 жыл бұрын
Came here to say exactly this (both the mistake and good video :D )
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
I said the wrong word. Should have been down (prices up, expected returns down). We have clipped that out to avoid confusion for other viewers.
@Snowyscar
@Snowyscar 2 жыл бұрын
Lovin’ your Fjällräven sweater! 🇸🇪
@henrik6151
@henrik6151 2 жыл бұрын
Looked for this comment! :)
@tcm81
@tcm81 Жыл бұрын
If you own individual shares in a nominee account, some brokers allow you to reinvest dividends automatically for free. This effectively eliminates the difference between dividend paying and non dividend paying stocks.
@yaafl817
@yaafl817 2 жыл бұрын
Hey ben, a year ago you said that the etf you invest into was not available to the public. Did anything change in this year? Can we now invest into five factor without making complex portfolios?
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
Unfortunately there is still no single ETF that delivers a factor tilted portfolio that I would recommend.
@yaafl817
@yaafl817 2 жыл бұрын
@@BenFelixCSI Ash shucks! Please do make a video if that eventually happens!
@TheRetailFundManagerPH
@TheRetailFundManagerPH 2 жыл бұрын
The reason it's unavailable is because they are probably underperforming.🤣 Imagine managing capital by combining some low cost funds. That's a lame strategy. Ben is the type of guy who needs to talk smart, sell his idea so that he can have some job security.
@hbahou
@hbahou 2 жыл бұрын
Hi Ben, from what I learned, expected returns can be broken down in two parts: dividend yield and growth. How can you then assert that dividend policy is irrelevant to expected returns? I do love your videos but on this one, I am not 100% convinced,😁
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
In assessing historical returns you need to include dividends in the data alongside capital appreciation because dividends reduce capital when they are paid. Ignoring them does not make sense, but they are neutral to total returns. A stock with no capital appreciation that pays dividends will have a return of 0% when dividends are included in the return calculation. In assessing expected returns, dividends are irrelevant. In other words, in estimating the discount rate that the market is applying to expected cash flows to arrive at the price, dividends do not contain any information.
@6toolbaseball
@6toolbaseball 2 жыл бұрын
@@BenFelixCSI so to take it another step, we shouldn’t use the Dividend Discount Model to value companies?
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
I agree with that. The replacement model is the one I show in the video. Rather than capitalizing dividends, we want to capitalize earnings net of investments (growth in the book value of assets).
@hbahou
@hbahou 2 жыл бұрын
@@BenFelixCSI Ok Thx Ben, that's clear !
@dakotadak100
@dakotadak100 Жыл бұрын
@@BenFelixCSI How do you explain the difference in volatility between dividend yields and pe ratios? Without dividends that portion of our return dependent on future valuations becomes 100%....so please answer, why would this not matter to someone needing to live off income?
@cajungames
@cajungames Жыл бұрын
Still my favorite episode!
@jimattwood2777
@jimattwood2777 2 жыл бұрын
If constructing a portfolio with a bias towards dividends leads to 2%|4% relative underperformance (because buyers tend to overpay for dividend stocks) does that lead to a conclusion that we should be underweight such stocks?
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 2 жыл бұрын
Not necessarily. That under-performance occurs during times of high demand for dividends. It's better to just ignore them entirely since they're inconsequential.
@accomplishedtheory9502
@accomplishedtheory9502 Жыл бұрын
Would TD bank stock go down the same amount as the dividend payout that day? Whether or not it recovers during that trading day is a different story but am I right about my first question?
@wjj669
@wjj669 2 жыл бұрын
great video Ben. Proper research is so hard to come by these days. So your underlying message is that Dividend Stocks/Funds underperform the broader market (whole index) in the long run when using Total Return as the outcome. Correct?
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
No. A portfolio formed on dividends may very well beat the market. However, the reason is not dividends. The reason is exposure to other risk premiums like value and profitability which can be targeted more efficiently directly.
@wjj669
@wjj669 2 жыл бұрын
@@BenFelixCSI target these risk premiums by buying the whole market, correct? has it been proven that those risk premiums (e.g. value) lead to outperformance in the long run?
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
You need to increase the weights of some securities relative to market weights to get the risk factor exposures. Total market only delivers one risk. More details here kzbin.info/www/bejne/oHy6k4ptjMygZtk
@F1MichaelGT
@F1MichaelGT 2 жыл бұрын
As a dividend investor, I agree with your points. But tracking and having a nearly predictable payment schedule is what I love about investing and it keeps me passionate about it. I would estimate my returns would be worse without learning to research companies with that passion. I love waiting for the right time to buy, and feel very smug that my portfolio is comfortably in the green YTD and providing me more cash to invest into non-dividend payers at these prices if I wish.
@joe97nsx
@joe97nsx 2 жыл бұрын
I agree. One thing that isn't taken into account is human emotion. It is much harder to hold onto equities during rough times. Even if non-dividend-paying companies potentially have a better long-term capital appreciation, there is no guarantee that the investor would have still been holding onto that company. Basically, we're getting paid to continue holding onto the company.
@larryjones9773
@larryjones9773 2 жыл бұрын
@@joe97nsx That's the whole point. 'Human emotion' should be removed from investment decision making. p.s. Ben isn't a human. He's a robot, pretending to be human. He views humans as flawed investors. Ben is correct. And lastly, why do you think companies pay dividends? Answer: because they're hoping to manipulate your emotions, and keep you from selling. You're being baited, and it's working.
@PapaCharlie9
@PapaCharlie9 2 жыл бұрын
You're making Ben said. :( There's nothing about payment schedules or tracking that require dividends. Arguably, dividends make all that more complicated, not easier.
@joe97nsx
@joe97nsx 2 жыл бұрын
@@larryjones9773 I am doing just fine thank you. Not all companies are the same, including dividend-paying companies. They don't all pay dividends just to manipulate emotions. At some point you're going to have to sell anyway, whether it's in retirement or some other life circumstance that requires you to. Been doing this since 1990. I can live with the slightly lower returns over non-div paying stocks if it means I sell only when I need to as opposed to selling over some emotional response. Know thyself. And I know what I'm not good at and what I'm not good at. The earlier you do that, the better. And hey, if you can hold take all your emotions out of it, good for you. I do have a small portion of my portfolio in non-div stocks but it is exactly that. Small enough where I don't care what happens to it. I'm just not willing to expand that in a broader sense to the rest of my portfolio where I am generating an income for other purposes. As a Canadian, there are also some tax advantages where I can deduct certain US charitable expenses from US divs that I can't from US cap gains. I love Ben but one shoe doesn't fit everyone's investment strategy.
@naidnarnya9448
@naidnarnya9448 2 жыл бұрын
@@joe97nsx calling dividend investing an “investment strategy” is like saying that investing in companies that only start with the letter A is an “investment strategy,” meaning that I’m sure you’d agree it wouldn’t make sense to base your investing decisions off of what letter a company starts its name with, it similarly doesn’t make sense to invest in something which doesn’t offer any assistance with your investing outcome (except for potentially lower returns). I posted this elsewhere in the comments but for you: Company A is worth $100. You receive a $5 dividend. The position is now worth $95 and you have $5 in your pocket. Company B is worth $100. You sell $5 of your position. The position is worth $95 and you have $5 in your pocket. Thinking you are somehow better with company A over company B is silly (no offense).
@thomas6502
@thomas6502 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you Ben!
@KiwiTheKiwi24
@KiwiTheKiwi24 2 жыл бұрын
Does the same apply to dividend investing in a tax-free environment? I can understand getting taxed on your dividends greatly diminishes your returns, but does it also apply to earning dividends in a tax-free country?
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
The tax argument typically still applies in a tax free environment because countries often withhold tax on dividends paid to foreign investors, making domestic dividends more tax efficient.
@olegkashin6064
@olegkashin6064 2 жыл бұрын
Would be kinda cool promotion if you had a viewer guest on your show and you look over their portfolio. :)
@yellowcarbb
@yellowcarbb 2 жыл бұрын
How about REITs that are mandated to distribute dividends from rental income?
@I_like_turtles_67
@I_like_turtles_67 Жыл бұрын
I'll keep buying my dividend stocks. With money earned from paid off real estate. My rents go up. Along with my quarterly dividend payments.
@umbertopappalardi8667
@umbertopappalardi8667 2 ай бұрын
Ben, I have one question, which has been bothering me for long time. Is there a peer-reviewed scientific research on the following topic: does a world diversified dividend paying ETF have the same irrelevance ratio as choosing individual dividend paying stocks over „normal“ stocks and ETFs?
@paolodinorscio8872
@paolodinorscio8872 2 жыл бұрын
Top notch information!
@antoinemousnier6929
@antoinemousnier6929 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for the high-quality contents! Same question as on previous video on dividends: can you please check whether the sentence below is correct? Sentence: « dividends-paying stocks have a protection against high downturns as a decrease in stock price increases the dividend yield, making the stock more attractive. » Thanks again!!!
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
Why would decreasing share-price necessarily result in higher dividend yield? I can't think of a reason why that would make sense.
@pseudocynic1
@pseudocynic1 Жыл бұрын
As long as the dividend remains the same, yield goes up as price goes down (yield = dividend/price).
@pseudocynic1
@pseudocynic1 Жыл бұрын
In general, but certainly not always, dividend-paying stocks tend to be companies having established businesses (e.g. banks & utilities) with a track record of consistent cash flows and profitability. That may give them some resilience in a volatile market environment as long as the business can continue to afford the dividend but it is extremely dangerous to generalize with a statement like that. There are plenty of companies in sectors whose revenues fluctuate with the business cycle and/or economy (resource stocks, REITs, small caps etc.) that will cut or eliminate their dividend to conserve cash in an effort to just survive. Hence the topic of the video.
@antoinemousnier6929
@antoinemousnier6929 Жыл бұрын
@@pseudocynic1 Thank you for the reply. Yes the recent example of airlines company comes to mind for instance.
@antoinemousnier6929
@antoinemousnier6929 Жыл бұрын
@@alankoslowski9473 Hyeronimus answered below :)
@scott1441
@scott1441 2 жыл бұрын
As a value investor , I believe reinvesting dividends is a winning strategy , not spending dividends
@PapaCharlie9
@PapaCharlie9 2 жыл бұрын
If you own non-dividend paying stocks that grew the same amount as your reinvested yield, what's the difference? Apart from the negative difference of tax drag?
@uberboiz
@uberboiz 2 жыл бұрын
@@PapaCharlie9 The dividend gives you flexibility in terms of deciding where you want to invest it in (i.e. in the same company or other companies). The non-dividend paying stock doesn't provide that flexibility, the growth could possibly be on paper only, and the supposedly tax benefit is just a matter of timing difference.
@PapaCharlie9
@PapaCharlie9 2 жыл бұрын
@@uberboiz It's a bit surprising to see "flexibility" attributed to dividends, since they are the opposite of flexible. They are a liquidation of your equity on an arbitrary schedule you have no control over. And a dollar of cash generated by selling shares can also be invested in any way you like, there is no difference whatsoever in that respect. Actually, there is one difference -- if you decide to reinvest in the same shares, only dividends are taxable. Deciding not to sell shares will never be taxable.
@uberboiz
@uberboiz 2 жыл бұрын
@@PapaCharlie9 That's not quite right. Dividend is not a liquidation of your equity, it's a distribution of the after-tax profit of the underlying company - it's surprising many people are oblivious to such a basic concept. When you receive dividends, the number of shares you hold remain the same. On the other hand, if you sell your shares for whatever reason (e.g. re-allocating the capital, paying kids' tuition, etc.), you essentially part ways with it (in exchange for cash) and any future upside it may have - not to mention the capital gains tax implications. My point on 'flexibility' is related to what the shareholder can do with the dividends they receive. If you say the management's decision to distribute the profits as dividends is beyond the shareholder's control, it is no different to the management's decision to reinvest the profit - not only it's outside your control, there's no guarantee it necessarily translates to a higher return in the future.
@PapaCharlie9
@PapaCharlie9 2 жыл бұрын
@@uberboiz What's the functional difference? If your $100/share stock pays $5 in dividends, the stock price falls to $95/share. You don't lose shares, but you lose equity, which is what I said. If that stock had not distributed profits, the share price should have risen, increasing your equity. Granted, selling a non-dividend paying stock reduces your number of shares and there is a theoretical point where the equivalence breaks down, but in practice that is mitigated by stock splits. As for the flexibility, it's not that management is just as arbitrary if profits are reinvested, rather, it is that management leaves the decision up to the shareholder. Consider a situation where a shareholder wants to draw cash from their equity on a monthly basis. How many stocks pay dividends monthly? Not very many. And if the shareholder wants bi-weekly or weekly income? Almost none. Using dividends alone to convert your equity into spendable cash locks you into an arbitrary schedule.
@ryantan8666
@ryantan8666 2 жыл бұрын
Since "dividend investors are willing to pay premium for dividend cash flows above and beyond what a rational investor would", wouldn't avoiding dividend-paying stocks boost expected returns?
@PapaCharlie9
@PapaCharlie9 2 жыл бұрын
Stocks with good risk factor exposures, like market risk or profitability, may also pay dividends. So avoiding dividend-paying stocks would also avoid those good risk factors. No added benefit doesn't mean avoid, it means don't bias your selection, for or against. It's a "don't care" property of equities.
@motogsprx7251
@motogsprx7251 2 жыл бұрын
Please normalize the volume level of the video (it's a bit too quiet)
@daveschmarder-1950
@daveschmarder-1950 2 жыл бұрын
I would add an additional comment for your evaluation, Ben. Back in the old days, before Charles Schwab killed high commission rates, if an investor needed cash each year, he had to sell off a small portion of his stock. This was a costly way to manage accounts each time money was required. Getting a dividend check was free of commissions and also let someone slowly reduce their holding in that stock. Now that stock transactions are mostly free, this shouldn't be a reason to manage ones spending needs or allocation levels. I have only mutual funds and ETFs. I don't select investments because of dividends. I like to avoid dividends if I can, but certain industries require dividends or share buybacks. Is there any way to research my opinion?
@daveschmarder-1950
@daveschmarder-1950 2 жыл бұрын
@@MrSupernova111 Utilities are an example of industries that pay high dividends. An electric utility cannot keep selling more electricity in their service area, unless there is a need. When a dividend is paid, it is paid out of the money that the company has (or can borrow). That reduces the value of the company slightly as the money has been spent on the dividend. This gets reflected in the share price over time. Buybacks aren't really required, but sometimes a company has so much cash, it can be a drag on the overall returns of the company due to the high amounts of cash earning almost nothing. They can loan out the money too, but these days, that is not much of a profit center.
@daveschmarder-1950
@daveschmarder-1950 2 жыл бұрын
@@MrSupernova111 I appreciate your comments. First, I'm not a professional. I was mainly asking Ben about my speculations. Utility dividends or buybacks are not a regulatory requirement in the US. Dividends or buybacks are not regulated. Companies do what they feel is best for their owners, the shareholders. Dividends can be raised, lowered or eliminated at the discretion of the company at any time. If there are share buybacks, those shares are effectively eliminated. They could pay the dividend to themselves, but that wouldn't do anything. Fewer outstanding shares means a higher possible valuation of the company, or increased dividend payouts for the remaining shareholders. Most of my money is in taxable accounts, and a dividend requires me to pay a tax on that dividend, even if I don't need the money. It also causes my adjusted gross income to increase, which can cause other costly events such as increased Medicare payments.
@daveschmarder-1950
@daveschmarder-1950 2 жыл бұрын
@@MrSupernova111 I use tax loss harvesting methods to mitigate my tax situation. It isn't out of control, but I need to step carefully. I have some mutual funds that I've held for a long time. They throw off a lot of capital gains distributions. I take those as cash, rather than additional shares. I'm slowly selling out of these funds. I have only mutual funds and ETFs. Some are dividend investments because I want those sectors of the market. I'm saying that benefits are not beneficial to me as I don't need them. This year I started my RMD from my IRA, and with SS, my AGI can get jacked up quickly.
@beginetienne
@beginetienne Жыл бұрын
Taking dividends is like taking even money on a blackjack table when the dealer has a ace up. In the long run, you will loose as you are paying an edge to the house to take the money back. I have never seen anyone argue that dividend growth is better but I must be wrong since this video was made. There are moments in life when you need to take the money. It is reasonable to build some income into your portfolio, using dividends, bonds, preferred shares. That is true even if you know in the end the index return will be superior. The problem is that not everyone builds up to 2M and then starts withdrawing with a 4%/5% cap strategy. You can build up a emergency fund from your salary, but you can also build up an emergency *income* mechanism with interest, dividends AND selling stocks (...and real estate, insurance, other private ventures) when life changes this can be useful. In short diversify your holdings, but also diversify your source of income. Every penny I make is not assigned to the stock market with the sole purpose of getting into retirement as rich as mathematically possible. In my life, my situation, I need to setup additional sources of income and you can do that with the stock market (and many other things, like selling baseball cards on ebay). Some of my investments are made so I can take the money. Some of my investments track a market index for the purpose of retirement. There is no single approach and you must adapt to your needs. You can have many investment goals and methods going on at the same time. There is not only one way.
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
Total return and withdrawal amount are all that matter. Whether you take a $1K in dividends as cash or sell $1K in shares doesn't matter. You're still withdrawing $1K from your investments. As Ben says, dividends feel like free money, but they aren't.
@colinhiggins4779
@colinhiggins4779 Жыл бұрын
If you invested $1 in stocks in 1824, and reinvested all dividends, you would have had $3.2 million by 2005. If no dividends were paid out or reinvested, you would have $374. If you had invested in growth stocks in the S&P that paid no dividend in the period between 2000-2012, your portfolio would have lost value over that 12 year period. According to Merrill Lynch, dividend paying stocks outperformed ones that did not pay dividends in the period 1990-2018. This guy's math doesn't even come close to working out. Pure growth investing is speculation. Total return investing is putting dollars to productive work, it isn't pulling money off the blackjack table, it is getting paid to stay in the casino
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
@@colinhiggins4779 Not sure what your point is. It's still not a reason to target dividend stocks specifically, esp since only about half of all global stocks pay dividends.
@colinhiggins4779
@colinhiggins4779 Жыл бұрын
@@alankoslowski9473 I have a much longer answer above, but in short: investors should be looking at total return, and that includes dividends. Doesn't mean we should never invest in a company that doesn't pay one, or depend entirely upon them, but to completely ignore dividends is a losing strategy
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
@@colinhiggins4779 No it's not. Focusing on dividends reduces diversification and creates *uncompensated* risk. This isn't to say dividends should be avoided, but there's no reason to target them either. If company deems it prudent to issue a dividend, that's fine. But sometimes companies feel pressured to issue one when it's imprudent since they know many shareholders want them under the delusional they're 'free money' when they aren't.
@samr8603
@samr8603 2 жыл бұрын
Well you are right if people only do Dividend investing like some of the KZbinrs do. My wife has her own ISA (UK savings account) & Pension which are invested in growth and value companies. My pension is in Index funds and my ISA is a Dividend one. Each investment has their own plan. My pension and my wife's are for our retirement living, my wife's ISA for buying a nice place in 10 years when we retire (along with the value of our current house) and my dividend one is for the fun life and paying bills etc. Also I see my Dividend ISA as a hobby and I enjoy finding companies that pay regular dividends. So you are right but also wrong in my opinion. :-)
@TheEilandish
@TheEilandish Жыл бұрын
Hi, love you contant, I do have a question. No argue that mathamtiacly the same company stocks without divedends would be worth exactly the same with divedends which are reinvested (minus the taxes), but in real life many times the stock value is not a true representation of that company value, it might be much higer or much lower, which might evens out evantuly for most cases but my point is the stock price is volatile. much more than most divedends price changes. So won't you at least agree that divened investing can much less volatile than soley stock investing? To me, it sounds like divend are less prefered for long time investing as it might involve more hustle and taxes, but for short term - people who live off that money a divivend investing can be a much more stable option, compare to drawing a percnatge (or fixed amount) of ones protfolio.
@dakotadak100
@dakotadak100 Жыл бұрын
You are correct but a lot of financial professionals ignore this obvious flaw in assuming dividends don't matter....not to mention if an owner never took dividends and never sold their shares they would all eventually go to zero having earned nothing.
@739jep
@739jep Жыл бұрын
@@dakotadak100 ‘if an owner never took dividends and never sold their shares….’ Here you seem to be missing the main point of the dividend irrelevance theory. The point of the theory is that receiving dividends has the same affect on shareholder capital as selling shares does. You havnt discovered some smoking gun by effectively saying ‘if no capital is returned to a shareholder then they will receive no return’ 😂 You havnt pointed out a flaw in the theory in your made up scenario at all , you’ve only misrepresented it.
@ddzc
@ddzc 5 ай бұрын
How about the tax factor of paying no tax on 50k of eligible dividends and very low tax on anything below 100k? Also the stability of the monthly income which comes from them when investing in solid consistently paying Canadian corporations (there are many who haven’t skipped a single payment in decades)?
@Andrew21882
@Andrew21882 2 жыл бұрын
As a recent retiree and having a portfolio 50/50 allocation at 1.7% fees at a financial institution, they’re paying me an annual income of approximately 4.3% of the portfolio value. Just since September last year the portfolio is down 10%. I could easily make a portfolio of blue chip stocks yielding 4% - 6% without any fees and use just dividends for income not having to sell any shares. It’s as simple as that. You don’t need any mathematical formulas to figure it out. What’s wrong with this strategy ???
@justmoney139
@justmoney139 2 жыл бұрын
It's TRUE that you could have gone with a dividend portfolio last year and beat the index this year's index with the dividends. But, this is only a small time frame of data. Investing is a multi decade endeavour. What If the following year stocks rally 30% and your dividend stocks only go up 15%? You lost out on the other 15% potential gain. Multiply the effect of winning some years and losing some years, produces a statistical likelyhood you will either match or underperfom the market with dividends. Furthermore, your portfolio had a higher concentration of unnecessary risk exposures for no added alpha.
@naidnarnya9448
@naidnarnya9448 2 жыл бұрын
Receiving a dividend is effectively no different than selling shares. For example: Position of $100. Receive $5 dividend: $95 position and $5 in your pocket Position of $100. Sell $5 worth of shares: $95 position and $5 in your pocket. It doesn’t matter which way you cut it
@PapaCharlie9
@PapaCharlie9 2 жыл бұрын
If you look at historical returns, the 50/50 broad index portfolio with no preference for dividends ends up having better risk-adjusted returns than a pure blue chip dividend stock portfolio. That 4-6% yield on the blue chips isn't going to help you if the stocks lose 16% vs. a 50/50 portfolio that lost 10%. Not to mention that some of the largest megacaps that drive broad index returns don't pay dividends. You'd basically be selecting against the growth potential of those non-dividend paying blue chips.
@Andrew21882
@Andrew21882 2 жыл бұрын
@@PapaCharlie9 It’s all really a big puzzle. For example XBAL 60/40 allocation over last year lost more than XEQT 100% stocks. The bonds are supposed to protect a portfolio in a market downturn, but it turns out that in this case they haven’t. When one is in a phase of living off a portfolio as in retirement setting up a portfolio of quality dividend stocks and using just dividends for income is not a bad idea. That way you’re never going to run out of money and value of stocks most likely is also going to increase.
@Andrew21882
@Andrew21882 2 жыл бұрын
@@naidnarnya9448 Maybe so, but every time you sell shares you have to pay commission and that can add up. Buy and hold strategy and using just dividends for income you’re never going to run out of money in retirement not to mention it’s way less stressful .
@ricaguerrero8253
@ricaguerrero8253 2 жыл бұрын
The tax rate on qualified dividends did it for me
@MyChannel108
@MyChannel108 2 жыл бұрын
High dividend stocks are typically strong in the value and quality factors. That’s probably the reason why they have an outperformance in many stock markets (like here in Switzerland) over the long run…
@MillerMedeiros
@MillerMedeiros 2 жыл бұрын
Not always the case tho, better to target the factors directly: "... Using data from 1991 to 2012… Global portfolios of dividend payers and nonpayers have had similar average returns. By focusing on only dividend payers, however, an investor would exclude 35%-40% of firms. Investors should be aware of the diversification tradeoffs that result from pursuing a portfolio focused on dividend-paying stocks." - Global Dividend-Paying Stocks: A Recent History (2013) Dimensional Fund Advisors
@tastyrick
@tastyrick 2 жыл бұрын
It's almost as if many people equate dividends with buying a paycheck... Of course people will will gravitate to a payout model that they are familiar with.
@tmcche7881
@tmcche7881 2 жыл бұрын
Time horizon?
@fizout
@fizout 2 жыл бұрын
While chasing high dividends and thus paying a premium for them reduces expected future returns for new purchasers, couldn't that same tendency be a benefit for those already holding the dividend stock?
@BenFelixCSI
@BenFelixCSI 2 жыл бұрын
Yes, but at that point the dividend investor would want to sell their now lower expected return stock.
@albertbangma7501
@albertbangma7501 2 жыл бұрын
Instead, most are reinvesting back into the stock with the now lowered return expectations with the dividend.
@WhatIsThis-zq4hk
@WhatIsThis-zq4hk 2 жыл бұрын
Can you make a video about covered call ETFs? I feel like they are getting quite popular especially in this market
@StevenLoitz
@StevenLoitz 2 жыл бұрын
People who like the payments from dividend stocks should learn about put/call selling. Then you can manage your risk while taking in yield.
@ros7788
@ros7788 11 ай бұрын
From a value investor's perspective, I don't think money received from capital gains and dividends is fungible. Suppose a stock with an intrinsic value of $100 has a market price of $80 (a discount of 20%). Selling the shares to get income hurts because I'm only getting $0.80 for every dollar's worth. On the other hand, when a company issues dividends, there is no mispricing. The money comes from the corporate bank account. A dollar in the company's vault is worth a dollar of dividend.
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 11 ай бұрын
But since the share price is reduced proportionate to the dividend it doesn't matter. If the share-price is $80 before say a $1 per share dividend is issued, the share price drops to $79. Whether you take the dividends as cash or sell the equivalent number of shares doesn't matter. The total value is reduced by the same amount.
@ros7788
@ros7788 11 ай бұрын
​@@alankoslowski9473 Look at it from a value investor's perspective. If a stock has an intrinsic value of $100, and issues a $1 dividend, the intrinsic value drops to $99. If the equivalent of $1 is sold when the market price is $80, you're left with a $79 market price or $79 * 1.25 = $98.75 of intrinsic value. Selling hurts more because assets are sold at a depressed price, whereas dividends are withdrawn from idle cash in the business vault. The market shouldn't misprice cash, so I much rather withdraw from it than sell the core business.
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 11 ай бұрын
@@ros7788 That's psychologically illusory. Just because something 'hurts' less doesn't mean it's mathematically rational. If the share price is $100 when a $1 dividend is issued, it drops to $99. If the share price is $80 when a $1 dividend is issued, it drops to $79. Rather than automatically taking dividends as cash, it's more sensible to make withdrawals when you want or need to regardless of dividends. If you want to take withdrawals when the market seems to be up, just do it regardless of whether it's by selling share or taking dividends.
@ros7788
@ros7788 10 ай бұрын
​@@alankoslowski9473 I thought it's abundantly clear from the context that I meant 'hurt' as in losing intrinsic value in a transaction. It's a conclusion after I presented all the math so of course it's mathematically rational. Also, your reply is not a continuation of my post. You missed the point about intrinsic value. To reiterate, the end results of receiving dividends vs selling shares are not the same. To simplify with an example, suppose the business is a cow and a bucket of milk, receiving dividends is like taking the milk while retaining the whole cow. Selling shares is giving up a portion of the cow and the milk. If the cow is undervalued while the milk (cash) is perfectly priced, selling will 'hurt' because I'm not getting the full intrinsic value of the cow. In that scenario, I much rather spend the milk without selling any of the cow at a depressed price.
@hkhatri12
@hkhatri12 2 жыл бұрын
How to find a good financial planner in Canada??
@johntravolta9917
@johntravolta9917 2 жыл бұрын
Can you add automatic subtitles please? Thank you!
@jkoscak
@jkoscak 2 жыл бұрын
Damn… what a great video!!!
@NopeNope78
@NopeNope78 3 ай бұрын
I understand about Dividend stocks vs just buying the SP500, but what about Dividend ETF like SCHD paired with something like VIX? You do not pick and choose your high dividend stocks but an ETF
@tyreldelaney
@tyreldelaney 2 жыл бұрын
Good stuff!
@gimusk5667
@gimusk5667 2 жыл бұрын
What are your thoughts on writing covered calls on dividend stocks?
@Thurgor_Supreme
@Thurgor_Supreme 2 жыл бұрын
Can you PLEASE do an episode on I-series bonds? I feel like I've been missing out, but are they too good to be true?
@johnsmith-dm2tq
@johnsmith-dm2tq Жыл бұрын
well your more advanced than i am. i always figured that dividends came out of free cashflow and would there for hurt the company's overall value. plus, the company pays tax on the dividend and then you pay tax on the dividend. and all of that leads to uncle sams compound taxs. but i am happy a more advanced investor has confirmed my bias.
@rjhacker
@rjhacker 2 жыл бұрын
Could there be political risk in companies that rely on stock buybacks and non-dividend means of creating returns for shareholders? If politicians tax stock buybacks as immoral and greedy, but shield dividends as being the traditional and "virtuous" way a company should pay shareholders, the way the money gets out of the company would seem to have relevance, due to the mere cultural perception. I've encountered people who (wrongly) view stock returns as a casino, "except for the dividends". I guess it's answering my own question if I also say these taxes are not in place, and so their relevance is limited, but the proposals to implement them have been real in the past few years. Never underestimate the power of dividend investors in large voting groups, basically.
@epictetus3406
@epictetus3406 Ай бұрын
Ben in Canada dividends are very tax efficient are they not? If you are able to keep your income small you may even end up with a negative tax rate. I'm not able to do the math but I wonder how the numbers would compare - capital gains tax from selling US stocks vs canadian dividend stocks. At the end of the day its great to have a lot of unrealized gains but its not what you make, its what you keep that counts. I'm pretty sure that US stocks still come out on top even after deducting the capital gains tax but perhaps the gap is closer when accounting for the taxes?
@RafitoMembroza
@RafitoMembroza Жыл бұрын
Hi Ben. Can you do a video about buybacks and their relevance?
@SpaceTravel1776
@SpaceTravel1776 Жыл бұрын
Would like to see this too but I would think the conclusion would be the same, are dividends and buybacks are a symptom and not a cause of company's long-term growth and success.
@Aaron-wq3jz
@Aaron-wq3jz 2 жыл бұрын
Inefficiency is a trade off not necessarily a downside?
@phokuss
@phokuss 2 жыл бұрын
Hi Ben, can you make a video speaking about the impacts of quantitative tightening and the unwinding of balance sheets by central banks?
@739jep
@739jep 2 жыл бұрын
I second that , it would be an interesting video.
@privatprivat7772
@privatprivat7772 2 жыл бұрын
Can you make a video about Private Equity returns?
@briankelly7632
@briankelly7632 7 ай бұрын
"Cows for the milk, eggs from the hens, stocks by God for the dividends." 🥰
@djpuplex
@djpuplex 2 жыл бұрын
But youtubers say dividends are cool.😎
@Pieter2360
@Pieter2360 Жыл бұрын
Yes, and they’re all wrong.
@wealthrevolution6084
@wealthrevolution6084 Жыл бұрын
Hey Ben, I recently saw a graph showing that historically dividends often remain at the same or continue to increase during bear markets. Thereby, investors will have a steady cash flow to invest with when the market is lower and therefore cheaper. The argument was that with dividend stocks you'd have a higher cash flow during economic downturns which - if reinvested - would generate a higher expected return. What is your thoughts?
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
If the stock price decreases it doesn't change the math. Increasing dividends during a bear market just reduces the price further, so they're still irrelevant.
@wealthrevolution6084
@wealthrevolution6084 Жыл бұрын
@@alankoslowski9473 that is true. But when you receive a dividend during a bear market you can buy stocks at a cheaper purchase price and thereby raise the expected return - That at least is my theory.
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
@@wealthrevolution6084 That still doesn't make sense since your shares would still be worth less. Do you see you're subscribing to the 'dividends are free money' fallacy? That's why some companies issue them. They know some investors are deluded into thinking they're free money when they aren't. The math is still the same.
@Omar-et7sb
@Omar-et7sb Жыл бұрын
@@alankoslowski9473 Exactly. At this point I think it's a largely behavioral thing. To some people, the dividend fallacy will bring comfort (even those who understand return on total equity > dividend yield without higher expected returns) and in that case... I think it's okay. I mean, if that's the "comfort food" that keeps someone in the market then so be it. I have a high-income friend that's young and she is very conservative and refuses to be more than 60/40 (in her 20's!). If that "conservative" approach keeps her invested, then I say that's better than nothing...
@alankoslowski9473
@alankoslowski9473 Жыл бұрын
@@Omar-et7sb I still think a focus on total return is better. As for your friend, there's no reason to be so conservative with her ROTH allocation, but a 60/40 allocation in a taxable account might make sense if she plans to make at least occasional withdrawals soon.
@luwn00bz
@luwn00bz 2 жыл бұрын
Many cryptocurrencies and platforms offer high yields ("locking") often paid in the same currency ("staking" or similar). With varying successes... Kind of related, since it didn't happen two years ago but now it's everywhere; dragging investors in with offers of high yield
@Ran_G
@Ran_G Жыл бұрын
Thanks 😎
@Waly_Rabz
@Waly_Rabz 2 жыл бұрын
I’m a dividend investor and I don’t mind watching videos with different opinions from mine lol
@SOAP-jf7ue
@SOAP-jf7ue 3 ай бұрын
That's nice, Ben. We'll take it from here.
@curtismeyer8698
@curtismeyer8698 Жыл бұрын
It was not touched on in the video: but what about timing and drip? Seems like their are divided paying companies out their whose stocks falll drastically then the dividend continues making for something like a 10% + return which can be compounded through the next quarters until the stock gets back to its “ fair value” in which I suspect it’s time to move on. Especially in an environment like we are seeing today. Where the bulk of companies ( particularly small cap) have taken hits from fed raising interest rates.
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