The Rest of 2024 Forecasted! Supercharged Growth

[@CuriousDiaries]

Arjun: Congrats on your 100th episode mate! Like many novice investors I made a wrong choice of investing in Melb west( Manor Lakes) land and house 3 years ago. My house is about to complete in 30 days time. Whilst I’ve missed out on peak growth period in WA and QLD. Do you think it’s best for me to offload this property and invest elsewhere? I won’t make any capital gains, in fact there might be 5-10k of capital loss. What’s your thoughts?

[@investorkit]

@@CuriousDiaries thank you many more episodes to come! Yes can feel frustrating having missed out on the growth , I do expect some quiet times in the short term to continue as the market is in a phase called early adopter. However, the advantages to having a property in the cycle means that when the boom does arrive in the future you’ve gotten in early and without the competition. If you can hold this asset whilst still investing further , I would keep it so you’ve got exposure to the early market cycle in Melbourne for the years ahead. And then you can use your other Capital and remaining borrowing capacity to invest another high growth locations across the nation that are actively in high competition right now

[@CuriousDiaries]

@@investorkit Thanks Arjun! If i refinance then i could hold the property. My question was more specific to Manor Lakes as a suburb. I have some data that suggest there is huge vacancy rates and massive amount of oversupply in this suburb. Any pointers is much appreciated! if you feel the data is overwhelmingly against then I would sell and capitalise by investing in other growth areas.

[@investorkit]

@@CuriousDiaries the West has elevated vacancy rates and established supply levels. To be honest, almost all of Melbourne has higher established supply levels though. The West is just more than other patches. In this regard, you can look at it in two ways 1. Not have the issue of buying and selling costs. Have a more well kept home and stay through this cycle. Refinance out and then make purchases elsewhere in high short-term growth areas. You whilst you still have an asset for long-term growth here in Melbourne. Or 2. The same as the above but reposition from that suburb to other suburbs in Melbourne say middle north suburbs and eastern suburbs. Although even though their trends are slightly stronger in the shorter term, the buying and selling costs won’t make it worth it in my opinion. Eventually supply will self solve itself with elevated demand as the cycle intensifies over time just like it did between 2012-217 for Melb. However it is early now, hence early adopter

[@CuriousDiaries]

@ Thanks Arjun!

[@dailydriving1]

Congratulations on ep 100

[@investorkit]

Thanks for watching @dailydriving1.

[@darkphoenix8350]

Cockburn is pronounced as C/au/burn. The ck is silent. Hahaha.

[@investorkit]

😂😂 only learned about it after making and releasing the video. 🙃

[@shobisarva]

In light of the rising rental trends making rentals increasingly unaffordable in Brisbane, do you anticipate a corresponding increase in owner-occupiers, especially with soon to decrease interest rates? How might this shift impact overall supply in the property market and prices?

[@investorkit]

Hi @shobisarva, Thanks for your question! It’s possible a fraction of renters would be squeezed to the sales market and increase owner-occupier %, but the increase should be limited, because sales prices have also surged - from 2021 to 2024, Brisbane’s house rents increased by 46%, while sales prices increased by 45% - The affordability of both markets have equally worsened. On the other hand, the rate cuts would not just encourage owner occupiers, but also investors. With less rental demand and more rental supply, rental growth would slow down. Renter vs. owner-occupier ratio would soon find a new balance point. Brisbane’s current situation is similar to Canberra from 2016 to 2021, when its house rents increased by 29%, slightly higher than the sales price growth (27%). Over those 5 years, the RBA cash rate decreased from 2% to 0.1%. With all the above happening, renter % only decreased by ~1%, from 31.8% to 30.7% from 2016 to 2021 (census). Hope that answers your question. For any more information pls visit www.investorkit.com.au

[@jamietelltale7253]

It's pronounced "Co-burn" rather than Cock Burn haha - it took me a few months of pronouncing it as cockburn after I moved here until someone told me how to pronounce it haha

[@vivekramji3689]

I moved from Sydney to Perth in early 2024. Thanks for saving me from future embarrassment with the locals.

[@andrewcooper6170]

@@vivekramji3689Jamie is having you on mate

[@investorkit]

@@jamietelltale7253 haha ouch we should have realised that 😂

[@marideemendoza7243]

piara waters