The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Military and Strategic Dimensions

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine is the largest act of conventional military aggression on the European continent since World War II. Its conduct raises a host of critical issues for Ukraine and the West. This panel will discuss the military and strategic aspects of this crisis, and their implications for U.S. and other nations' responses. Please join us to help us all think through this challenging set of problems.
Panelists:
Richard Betts, Leo A. Shifrin Professor of War and Peace Studies; Professor of International and Public Affairs
Stephen Biddle, Professor of International and Public Affairs; Director, ISP Concentration, SIPA
V. Page Fortna, Harold Brown Professor of U.S. Foreign and Security Policy

[@christopherdolan8751]

Thank you for uploading this on behalf of someone who missed it.

[@elirothblatt5602]

What a great panel! I look forward to listening.

[@elirothblatt5602]

This was great -“millions of lives are at stake in getting international relations right” -great note to end on, Professor Biddle!

[@extrememiami]

Very powerful statement. I believe you added your own words to his statement and you madebit even better 👏 it's great how we can come together regardless of political affiliation and really openly debate these issues.

[@Vincent112june]

I think the west was as surprised as Russia at the vim shown by Ukraine.

[@Thisisnotmynamereally]

The answer by Richard Betts on NATO deterrence (at the 48 minute time point), is a masterful lesson in using an interminably long word salad punctuated by “aah”s and some more “uuh”s to evade the question. Only a professor at an Ivy League university could have the skill to use so many words to say effectively nothing of substance, let alone insight. That too on such a critical question with life-or-death implications for millions in East Europe. What does this guy get paid again? Bravo, the man should be promoted to UN ambassador (or a beauty contest judge).

[@halidekasan6116]

totally agree with you that "nothing of substance" was conveyed. I'll just tune into John Mearsheimer.

[@joelhammer3538]

Excellent analyses, thank you very much!

[@jamalan7417]

THANK YOU !

[@AyeshaKhan-lb5lm]

Please also discuss their points of convergence and divergence

[@MatthewEverhart]

Dr. Biddle is surprised in this video about the supply of AT missiles and AA missile from Germany to Ukraine...I can't imagine how he feels now that GE is now sending Leopard tanks!! @Columbia You should hold this panel again, 12 months later.

[@RonHilton]

Thanks contributing this great video to the public and the insightful contributing thoughts of the panelists.

[@BlitzOfTheReich]

15:15 this is a fair criticism since Russia has historically placed great importance in the correlation of forces.

[@vincentzack]

As with all wars in the history of mankind. War is devoid of any value of substance.

[@nicknostitz]

Thank you for that brilliantly educating discussion without any of the moral grandstanding or virtue signalling we are usually bombarded with

[@Jin169]

^^^

[@MatthewEverhart]

Hindsight is 20x20, but @1:12:00 we're providing WAYY more than UAVs to Ukraine :)

[@leonardgrant6876]

I remember when the USSR invaded Czechoslovakia the Russian soldiers were willing to sell the fuel and other military equipment even the AK47 for a couple of vodka bottles. I am not surprised that they do not have enough fuel or food.

[@Aiven_57]

What??? Really??? kzbin.info/www/bejne/hZXNaoSCqtSbmbc

[@markb8468]

They still do this 🤣

[@MarcosElMalo2]

Much has changed. In the modern Russian Army, the commanders sell the fuel and pocket the money. However, one thing is the same. The Russian soldiers are still treated like mushrooms: kept in the dark and fed a lot of 💩.

[@jonathanvalois3063]

Scholars are worried. That worries me.

[@carlosorellana5154]

High level discussion on international politics, but quite low level in terms of discussing issues of social planning.

[@tmcb2000]

Presumably, speed also benefits from surprise that Russia failed to achieve due to the revelations by Western intelligence.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

Yes. Even if Ukrainian leadership doubted U.S. intelligence, the military would have different responses prepared contingent on the form of the attack. Not only did Russia bungle the invasion, they walked into a trap.

[@extrememiami]

100% western intelligence is one of maybe 5 key factors that are making it possible for Ukraine to win the war. They said that not 1 day has passed where the US hasn't passed on actionable intelligence to Ukraine. I have seen unbelievable things when in the middle east, things that alone could win wars. And that was 12 years ago. An rf transmitter that can excite frequencies to the point were you can detect radio receivers, meaning your exact location can be found just by listening to a 2way or fm radio not transmitting. Spectral imagers that convert molecules to colors. You can detect nearly anything in the world with it. It's used on crops but can be used to even detect the breath of a human from all the way up in a plane, I'm sure it could even mount on a satellite if the algorithm could remove atmospheric input. The tech of war is changing very rapidly and we're clearly seen that Russia had us fooled for the past 50 years with their capabilities.

[@indethbed2546]

russia wanted the non-war and possibly the most peaceful approach to attain their goals while the western propaganda started screaming about the ill-intentions of russia and its imperialist dreams

[@johnmoore9404]

Some of this very informative - and insightful but one panelist had very little to add on the most important topic - NATO's input. I'll leave it to others to see if I am correct. I think NATO should prepare for the worse and they seem to be doing little in terms of preparing for nuclear /chemical or Biological exchange. The Baltic and Georgia are next.

[@speedy2488]

NATO should be dismantled

[@LeArquebus]

As of april 4th there are a outnumbered Russian army stuck in Ukraine, while the ukranians are mobilising greater and greater support both domestically and foreign.

[@LeArquebus]

@@cherylderue336 Njet Tovarish.

[@ergker2243]

17 July: Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 crashes near Grabove in eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, 193 of them Dutch. Pro-Russian rebels are widely accused of shooting the plane down using a surface-to-air missile - they deny responsibility. 8 March: The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines MH370 during a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing leads to the largest and most expensive search in aviation history. Despite vast effort, notably in the hostile South Indian Ocean, nothing was found until July 2015, when an aircraft wing part washed up on Reunion Island. French officials confirmed the debris was from MH370. 11 February: A military transport plane -

[@psithurism241]

full/2 imo cosreasons

[@ovidiudraghici9941]

It's amazing how far off are even the most erudite Americans when assessing situations behind the "wall". Russia IMHO has no plans for occupying Ukraine, just splitting it up and creating a buffer state. My guess is that Dnieper will be the future border between Western (proper Ukraine) and Eastern (Russian) Ukraine. Their military and political doctrine is quite different from the western ones. Let's call it a cultural difference. No matter how long it will take, how hard it will be, and how many losses they will incur, Ukraine will be split in two.

[@johnanderson1388]

Yes your corect

[@StarCrystal9]

yes, I agree. Plus how many wars were won by the US? How many by the Russians? I just wonder...

[@stevens.666]

да здравствует россия

[@martyanderson3390]

These are the kind of people that are advising our government. I think that statement speaks for itself. Watch any video on Napoleons strategy and tactics…….. you’ll understand exactly what Russia is doing.

[@ericmartini2980]

This is why I like listening to old war dogs who trained for the cold war they accurately predicted the Russian disarray then any of these so called experts

[@russellwest8767]

I’m sure these guys are very qualified, but it’s grating to hear two out of three of them acting as though giving up everything east of the Dnieper is the most rational concession, given that since this came out even Russia has had moved the goalposts to just the existing contested regions.

[@harryflashman4542]

moved the goalposts? Has that not been largely their stated aim from the outset?

[@markb8468]

Seems like that would simply b a staging area for a future incursion deeper into Ukraine. Cpl years and they'll try to take more territory......again....

[@MarcosElMalo2]

They’re basing their discussions without knowing the gains Ukraine would make within a few days. I’m posting this comment with knowledge you didn’t have at the time you posted your comment.

[@harryflashman4542]

@@MarcosElMalo2 I think western leaders and media are misleading the world in the hope that increased sanctions will cause a regime change in Russia. Not going to happen. In a week or so, Ukraine news will finish as defeat becomes inevitable.

[@halidekasan6116]

such little substance, did not hear anything I already did not know, disappointed by your panel. Get John Mearsheimer on your panel!

[@steelydan146]

All these "experts" on the geo-political situation... and yet they don't have a proper solution to get out of this crisis. They have not said anything new or earth shattering here.

[@timsherman1245]

After seeing this and how the world leader reacted, Now i understand What chamberlain must have felt when Hitler are invading England. And I also understand how Churchill Thinks.It seems that This problems that can only Be solved if The Russian actually took to the Street and bring down Putin ( very unlikely to happen since how spineless The Russian people are but i still hope they would at some point in short time ) or The Russian Military Higher Ups just said to Putin Enough of this BS you are out

[@patriley1026]

You never win a war on defense. The Ukranians must be courageous and find a way to break through the thin Russian lines and launch an effective air and land campaign against Russian territories up to and including Moscow. Bravery to take the fight to the enemy is a must.

[@jockmoron]

Perhaps you'd like to volunteer?

[@markb8468]

One thing Russia does have is a very dense air defense system IN Russia. What you propose would be EXTREMELY difficult, if not impossible. But simply by not losing....Ukraine is winning. Just as by not winning quickly....Russia is losing. They don't have the resources to continue this type of war indefinitely. Much like very many "frozen conflicts" such as Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq...the soviets in Afghanistan.......it just drains everything, including moral and political and social will to fight.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

You’re in fantasy land. This isn’t a basketball game, Coach Riley. Ukraine is currently (30 March 2022) mounting counter attacks. They might be able to mount a counter offensive at some point. But the sort of counter offensive you envision is as unrealistic as Putin’s plans.

[@draganmacesic182]

Rusija je prvi put ušla spremna u rat, ko se i malo razume u vojnu strategiju dobro zna kako stoji Rusija i ova specijalna intervencija će se izučavati na vojnim akademijama.... Nato pakt da je procenio da je jači od Rusije odavno bi je napao... Zato samo možete da se bavite jadnom propagandom.....

[@markorupar616]

Kiev was not the aim. It was just action to pin the north of Ukrain army. Main battle is taking part on the East. Low intensity is to reduce the civilian victims. Russians were full avare that it will be more military casulties among their troops. It is a bit different way of conducting war in comparisment with the West.

[@ltribley]

Yes! I'm really disappointed that the panelists “got nearly” everything wrong! Either they were unprepared or haven’t conducted rigorous research to unearth the facts. It's pathetic to listen to the undercurrent of American exceptionalism when we have haven’t won a war since WWII and our shock and awe destroys everything and everyone in its path. As of this comment DPR and RU occupy a land mass larger than the UK.

[@TorianTammas]

@Marko Rupar - So why did Russia send in their special forces on day one to take an airfield near Kyiv? Why did Russia send in huge columns in support? Why did we have on day four announcements on the russian propaganda channels that they had won and taken Kyiv? Why did Russian troops start with so few supplies? Your story does not fit the reality. Putin planned a short war and expected to win in a few days like in 2014 or against Georgia. Putins main goal was to take out Zelensky and the govermnment to replace them with Putin puppets.

[@ellarson1]

Doubtful that Russia actually planned to display such poor logistical performance to the west and NATO.

[@markorupar616]

@@TorianTammas Russians planned and had more options. Never goes everything according the plans and we do not know the Russians plans, so it is not possible to evaluate them. My opinion is that activities in the north near Kiev was to attract the attention and maybe was also part of the plan to capture the president of Ukraine.

[@shiwakuseven5859]

@@markorupar616 You are entitled to your opinion, but if Kyiv was just a diversion, it made the Russian army look incredibly inept. It is more likely that Putin attempted a regime change in Ukraine but failed due to Ukraine President Zelensky wanting ammunition from NATO instead of a ride.

[@ltribley]

Why aren’t the Professors debating the follow points? As of the time of this comment, after 4 weeks RU and DPR have occupied and control of a land mass larger than the UK! Quite an accomplishment for their turtle pace. To date they have eliminated approx 30,000 UKR and Azov troops (about 1,500+ their side) with the remainder of the UKR army, Azov in Donbas surrounded in cauldrons. Remember this war has been going on for 8 years and influenced by the far-right neo-Nazi elements, neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, UKR oligarchs, US gov supporting the 2014 coup, and several politicians sons (Biden for one). Ever wonder why a concentration of 60,000+ troops were gathered in the East -- preparing for an invasion of the Donbas partially coordinated by the US. Notice the US admin and media never talk about this point, the breaking point for Putin's decision to avoid genocide of the Russians living there. Notice the admin and media do not even recognize the war in the East rather misleading the public the war is in Kiev, and West. Putin and their defense department MADE IT CLEAR at the beginning that they were not interested in conquering the cities. Their strategy has always been to focus war wherever the enemy troops are located, which means no shock and awe wave to Kiev like the US air strikes killing and flattening cities for days, weeks, or the inhumanity of the napalm carpet bombing of the “Babies of Vietnam”. When asked the number of civilians killed the Pentagon ALWAYS tells us they don’t count civilian deaths! Common sense. If the troops are defeated the cities will come in line. As surveys of the public documented, few were interested in taking up arms, and they did not. Young people forced conscription in Kiev, immediately fled as refugees. BTW, Putin's approval rating is running around 80% (you're a fool to think there will be regime change) and they have effectively completed phase one of their campaign. If you followed RU field tactics they alway try to pincer and move UKR forces away from city centers as far to the outskirts as possible. Life, as reported by residents, and combat journalists in these cities was as normal as possible, electric, cellular, Internet, heat, water, even trains were running. They encircled forces into cauldrons. The humanitarian corridors are designed 2 fold. One (1) to let civilians leave, 2 allow soldiers to drop arms and leave. This has been fairly successful with the exception of the Nazi Azov troops. The strategy the Azov's use is when they retreat, they shell civilians. Again, all well documented with supporting evidence and civilian interviews in the field, not in a hotel far away in the West. Unlike the US that destroys BOTH military and civilian infrastructure simultaneously, the RU targets military only - as much as possible. Note. How many wars have you seen at this level of intensity but yet the core civilian infrastructure is intact? All documented and factual IF you've been rigorous on finding the facts. We see WWII like inner city, door to door, CQC. Remaining UKR troops and the Azov Battalions retreated to residential areas using civilians as human shield. Notice Western coverage only shows destruction and civilian victim’s ignoring the obvious that the UKR forces and Azov were in apartments, schools, churches, hospitals. Residents spoke about this and how they were threatened with death if they try and leave. It's ALL there documented by combat reporters. The US decision to apply the nuclear SWIFT sanction on RU's sovereign bank has forever changed the world and eliminated any possibly of globalization as countries run away from the US $ as fast as possible. The US broke trust in the global financial system backed by the petrodollar, soon including the Chinese petroRMB and countries have already met in Asia to prepare a new standard currency, similar to the Euro. Russia has survived the sanctions, EVERYTHING the West took away is easily replaced by goods and services from China and Eurasia. They will grow and prosper. We and the EU are in a downward spiral with stagflation and inevitable recession. If the dollar drops to dangerous levels expect a depression. Russia has pivoted to the East, Eurasia, Asia. China, India, and Russia the dominate players in the “reset”. The Anglo Sphere's cancellation of Russia is simply “Cultural Racism”. The multipolar world has been with us for some time, problem is we are si engrossed with ourselves we didn’t see it. Sadly, Biddle's analysis of the military strategy is incorrect, most of the information is not factual but parrots back administration propaganda. There's no rigorous scholarly research here. I'm not sure why they decided not to discuss events that led up to the war, dating back to the breakup of the Soviet Union and NATO guarantees of no expansion, failure of MINSK 1, 2 Agreements, how the war could have been avoided, and why the US is REFUSING participation for a diplomatic solution. The US, NATO refusal is contributing to the death and destruction. Failure to commit troops is a statement of desertion to the Ukrainian people. If you're an expert, or scholar in order to have rigorously studied this issues meaning you've researched the topic using international independent, objective experts and not relied on the Sadly, if this is the best of Columbia's analytical and rigorous critical thinking capabilities you might consider transferring to another University. You're parents money is going to waste.

[@TRIST22G]

Lol bye bye Russian troll.

[@harryflashman4542]

@@TRIST22G somehow I knew that would be the sum total of rebuttal.

[@jockmoron]

@@TRIST22G You'd convince others more if you could actually rebut the claims than merely attacking the writer.

[@ChuckAmadi]

Very optimistic view of Putin's Russian Conscripts performance. I personally see a stalemate as Ukrainians are being resupplied and if the bigger advance lethal aid is provided, HELL will be reigned on the Dombass Region. Let's see how the impasse goes with "Unfriendly Nations", paying for Putin's gas on the 31st of March in Rubles.

[@harryflashman4542]

I am constantly amazed at the confidence academics display in their own intellect on so little information and experience of real people. I think in this case they are informed more by western bigotry and can't acknowledge that Russia is doing exactly what it stated and doing it far better than the US has managed in their foreign wars. Largely, this conflict is the inflection point of western dominance. We cannot see that it's over. Western interventions have largely been a failure. We are desperate not to see another nation capable of better.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

Harry Flashman, I bet you know more about arrogance, braggadocio, and false confidence than 99% of academics. Those qualities (if you can call them that) have gotten you out of quite a few scrapes while also advancing the cause of Queen and Country quite accidentally. Don’t begrudge them their moment in this little webinar that is of no consequence to you.

[@joelhammer3538]

Russia? Doesn't look capable of organizing a piss-up in a brewery.

[@jockmoron]

I heard the first contributor Stephen Biddle, and he spouted more nonsense in one minute then I'd care to listen to in several days. He is not a military man, I prefer Scott Ritter's commentary. God, I'd not want him as a military leader. Sorry, chaps, not going to listen any further.