The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator has Signaled

Рет қаралды 78,440

Benjamin Cowen

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 155

@intothecryptoverse 2 ай бұрын

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@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

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@himeshpeiris693 2 ай бұрын

Ben!!!!! BTC.D 60%=Taking a hot shower which is much needed 😉😉

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

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@shivamgangwanii 2 ай бұрын

The title Ben wanted to put: The Sahm Rule has signaled BTC dominance to 60%

@rachedhaddar9741 2 ай бұрын

i wish i could buy some BTC.D coins 😂

@anthonyalessi7923 2 ай бұрын

@@rachedhaddar9741 huh going bf😮cr

@NickMortuus 2 ай бұрын

FACTS, no lies were told

@Chipchap-xu6pk 2 ай бұрын

Hello everybody and welcome to the Sahm rule, and its native token, BTC.D

@_pd_7059 2 ай бұрын

Lmaooo

@DigitalAssetNews 2 ай бұрын

I was told we would be talking about bitcoin dominance but this was ok.

@brainharrington 2 ай бұрын

I thought it was an acronym for stay at home mom

@RudolfMaister420 2 ай бұрын

She has to stay at home because she lost her job

@richard40404 2 ай бұрын

Great video. Ben you bring the data alive with your analysis. Thank you.

@geisty 2 ай бұрын

It's rather disturbing that economists and governments are constantly covering up the actual unemployment math.

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

👉27:54✔️

@musicalcontessa4275 2 ай бұрын

Yes, totally agree!!!!! I have been saying this for at least 7 months now to my friends and family. No open DES offices or office personnel in many states, either. The unemployment numbers being reported are totally fake.

@geisty 2 ай бұрын

@@musicalcontessa4275 Yeah if only 161 million Americans have jobs but there are 271 million adults... So they are implying only 4% of 110 million actually need a job when almost everyone is living paycheck to paycheck. Hmmm

@billweir1745 2 ай бұрын

@@geisty Are you saying people living paycheck to paycheck aren't employed?

@geisty 2 ай бұрын

@@billweir1745 touché! I was using the paycheck-to-paycheck phrase as it's generally understood to translate to 'barely getting by'

@tuffwith2effs899 2 ай бұрын

The scariest thing right now to me is just how long the yield curve has stayed inverted. How many times has this happened historically? What did it look like on the occasions that it has happened...

@Slenderman63323 2 ай бұрын

Closest thing would be the 1970s/80s which was not a good time

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

@chipshiner2371 2 ай бұрын

Above ready to uninvert

@leahnjr 2 ай бұрын

"We don't have enough data to know" - Ben Powell

@mindlessmusician3117 2 ай бұрын

The last time the sahm rule was being discussed alot was last year same time. I did some research at the time, and while the narrative goes that the indicator predicts every recession from 1970s onwards, it was fit to the data in 2008.. After the last recession hit. So it's actually like the stock to flow model, that's overfit. When the creator of the ondicator says it wont work this time on its first true test, it very clearly means they overfit the model

@hoopgal3216 2 ай бұрын

I’m in Florida. Houses for sale are SITTING. Husband works for a major airline & they’ve stopped hiring & canceled their orders of jets. They’re offering the pilots what is called “incentive lines” which means the airline pays you (a reduced pay) to sit at home & not work. They did this during COVID and never before. Oh we are definitely in a recession or the very beginnings…

@tonioinverness 2 ай бұрын

"I'm not calling YOU out... well, a little..." 😂

@acook392 2 ай бұрын

I reckon Ben had a beer before this one

@vtp2839 2 ай бұрын

Great video ben!! I usually dont comment on any videos but you are the best data analyst I have ever seen. (Also a funny one, love your humor) I have been watching your videos for 3 years now and you taught me most of what I know about investing/economics. It is working out great. So thank you ben and greetings from germany! Btw btc dominance theory for the win, hope you keep spreading that message next cycle as well :)

@oraoffice9562 2 ай бұрын

I swear I thought there was a Stay At Home Mom rule recession indicator based on how many SAHMs do or don't do something. Like the gas pump indicator.

@cocolee9528 2 ай бұрын

Same lol 😂

@steveh.7664 2 ай бұрын

haha I'm certain there's a metric someone could make based off of stay at home mom's and dad's spending

@PeterS94 2 ай бұрын

Sahm saw six slippery snakes slither silently southward into Sam’s sphincter.

@kingofcool 2 ай бұрын

Lucky Sam

@europana7 2 ай бұрын

What's more important is the depth/shallowness & duration of the recession.

@Artchick1972 2 ай бұрын

Thank you for this great explanation 0:31

@etherc3446 2 ай бұрын

❤ Also watch out for the yield curve uninversion...usually it signals a recession is imminent.

@Scott_72 2 ай бұрын

Macro videos are my favorite on this channel.

@qxn1999 2 ай бұрын

What a great explanation of Sahm Rule !!! Thanks Ben!!!

@catherinelilly5065 2 ай бұрын

Had to chuckle when “dubious speculation” made its way into this video too!

@TheTrancestep 2 ай бұрын

One of your most even handed videos on a long time. Great work Ben! I would encourage you to look at the large layoffs coming in from intel and others along with and increase in silent layoffs in tech. The left tail risk here is higher than the market is currently pricing in IMHO.

@XFlyingDutchmanX 2 ай бұрын

Thanks for the explanation Ben.

@lucasrozema8197 2 ай бұрын

I think when analyzing the markets you have to really focus on the liquity side of things as that plays by far the most dominant role. Interest rates are a lot less important in the modern economic cycles.

@roblake9856 2 ай бұрын

Thanks Ben. Note that the big uptick in unemployment was in large part due to weather related temporary layoffs (Texas) (per yardeniquicktakes | beryling-toward-rate-cuts). Permanent job losers actually declined for the third-straight month. Personally, I welcome an uptick in unemployment to gradually bring down the sticky labor expense inflation.

@mr.c9846 2 ай бұрын

Excellent video, Ben. Love these metrics.

@jasonweishaupt1828 2 ай бұрын

It’s never different this time.

@datboi449 2 ай бұрын

Sahm gave an interview last year that she believed it would trigger but not result in a recession due to other macro and that her rule would break. Would be interesting to see if an updated interview is out there more recent conditions.

@johnnybraccia452 2 ай бұрын

might I suggest an unfortunate confounding variable; The labor market now has a significantly larger percentage of workers who are neither hourly nor salary. Uber, and lyft for taxi and food delivery may have significant cuts in their number of deliveries but not be fired or laid off. There has also been a lot of people who are independent contractors. hairstylists, massage therapists, independent plumbers and electricians, house cleaners... there is a huge list of people who are self employed and they will not be fired, they'll just lose work and income. there is an unemployed population that is probably accurate measured. but the self employed and underworked population will also be contributing to an absence of sales in the economy.

@LionRoarGamer 2 ай бұрын

One thing that is influencing this different from the past is that the unemployment rate is going up, not necessarily because people are losing their jobs, but because people who chose not to work are now looking for jobs and are now considered “unemployed.”

@Slenderman63323 2 ай бұрын

I think it's a sign that COVID excess liquidity is finally being washed out. The money people saved from working at home and collecting EI/stimulus checks was being spent and is now running out. Alongside the people who quit during the Great Resignation of COVID. So those people are now looking for jobs

@cozzie42078 2 ай бұрын

Markets tanking because japan raised their rates of. 25% from 0 or even negative rates ...first time in close to a decade. ALLl that free borrowing has now caused panic selling in risk on assets to cover the interest trillions of dollars

@peteradebi9548 2 ай бұрын

Precisely. Heard $4 trillion in borrowed money from Japan that was invested elsewhere and might now be liquidated. More than enough to spook the markets

@kaptan5306 2 ай бұрын

I believe she said this time is different because she works for the Fed herself and didn't want to or was cautioned not to cause panic.

@MJLGEE 2 ай бұрын

Thank you, Ben!

@RedRocket83921 2 ай бұрын

Would take umbrage with the Sahm rule being a warning indicator. When it signals it’s usually 25-50% of the way through the recession. This is the first time on this chart that it’s signalled without a recession already underway?

@fordprefect383 2 ай бұрын

Your tools and the way you use them are very insightful. Thanks for giving me a new perspective.

@hedu5303 2 ай бұрын

Thoughts to consider: In the past it nearly overlaps with the yield inversion curve when it breaks above 0. This time we are still below 0. So we have mixed signals.

@MrPikoka 2 ай бұрын

Question: Which is the state that is the most closely related(highest correlation) to the Sahm's rule over all? Has it triggered?

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

@Civalito 2 ай бұрын

thank you ben,what about the yield curve? it's a logn time that you don't mention that

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

@TheDan_02 2 ай бұрын

'I don't know what's going on!' are my thoughts exactly!! 🤣 Such a tricky time to navigate. . .

@3pix 2 ай бұрын

Just a note... What is "Today"? In future, if you'd also state date & time of your recording, it'll be greatly appreciated. Be well and thanks again.

@Nistorakee1 2 ай бұрын

good video, thanks Ben!

@dougmanzo9648 2 ай бұрын

Exciting and riveting video!!!!!!!!!!!

@mynameis5427 2 ай бұрын

We have been in a recession for like 2 years at least. We need to recalibrate the indicator.

@brandonducker2406 2 ай бұрын

Ben i hope you read this. How did you learn all this, what books have you read, what articles do you read, where did you learn to read the charts like you do. How did you start out?

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

@peterkling8501 2 ай бұрын

He started in nuclear physics IIRC

@bssb936 2 ай бұрын

Excellent analysis thanks Ben. 😊😊

@victorjared2820 2 ай бұрын

Wasn't she interviewed this year and said that she thinks it's "different this time" so her own Sahm rule won't apply??

@bethrandosuji3081 2 ай бұрын

How can you relate this to the price of Home/Real Estate. Whats your opinion please?

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

@PreekMedia 2 ай бұрын

well I personally just applied for unemployment recently because I was actively applying for the past 3 month, having 4 years of experience and it's been a complete disaster. I've sent hundreds of applications and from 90% I don't even get an answer, remaining 10% say 'we have too many applicants and decided to go with a better fitted candidate'. its so frustrating, I'm confused and not sure what to do

@coveringcambria 2 ай бұрын

Thank you Ben

@Josh-py9rq 2 ай бұрын

Morning Ben I love these pull backs allows me to buy some more sats

@raphaelestranero 2 ай бұрын

watching at 1.5 currently in recession now

@lockkai 2 ай бұрын

Bloomberg rates strategist Simon White notes, "The market may be prematurely anticipating a recession that is unlikely to occur before next year at the earliest." He adds that while the Sahm Rule's trigger heightens recession worries, it often lags and misses many equity downturns, making it neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for a recession. Today's unemployment rise was primarily due to an increase in the participation rate.

@LOGASTL 2 ай бұрын

SAHM is BTC dominance in Ben. An ancient language once utilized by the Logics, people of truth. In todays society, some remnant of the language remains as indicated by the contemporary phrase describing the last 3 years of the most recent crypto cycle - "he Ben right."

@Willopo100 2 ай бұрын

we have been in a recession for nearly 2 years. My bet is we are at the end of it and about to go into a couple years of great economic growth globally.

@TheGenericZer0 2 ай бұрын

Gonna have to see a major market correction before that, and that mild 2022 correction wasn't it.

@JdWalker-o6w 2 ай бұрын

How? Only way they can do that is keep price gauging which we are the end of now

@grillmaster95 2 ай бұрын

In nominal terms we haven't been, but in real terms, I think we have been in a mild recession

@KoitKago 2 ай бұрын

Quantitative easening in back door. Was the reason it was mild. @@TheGenericZer0

@alexgame3357 2 ай бұрын

Yea and its been funny watching everyone bending over backwards to pretend we have not been in recession.

@sdb816 2 ай бұрын

What do you think this means for crypto?

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

@TheSevenreddy 2 ай бұрын

Hi, would be helpful to view smaller lines and graphs on a higher resolution perhaps ? Can you upgrade your vids to 1440p or 2160p ? Would be pretty cool!

@purplehazzze79 2 ай бұрын

Amazing content!

@interested_af 2 ай бұрын

great video, thank you

@isamustafin8626 2 ай бұрын

Thanks 👍

@inkyip123 2 ай бұрын

how will it affect Btc?

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

@RichardPatrick84 2 ай бұрын

Benjamin Cowen - Not the hero we deserve, but the hero we need.

@space-mike 2 ай бұрын

Creator of the sahm rule said it was not technically triggered. Off by .7

@T.Neyma12 2 ай бұрын

Thank you so much sir. You have really clarified the doubts of so many people that are out there wondering what to do. I'm so happy for the opportunity to be one of your followers. Watching your analysis has really given me a greater portion on how the markets operate. God bless you bro. Watching from Thailand.

@korre83 2 ай бұрын

Can you make a sahm compared to states which has the highest gdp or highest population instead of just a map of usa? I think that will be more useful.

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

@scottstanicky5134 2 ай бұрын

A lot of people speculating on Twitter and stuff or giving predictions on your favorite political party doing good or bad

@sergeytrojan 2 ай бұрын

at this time eth/byc breaking support, waiting for update on this topic 😊

@erbayatik 2 ай бұрын

Thanks Ben, you have very good judgment.

@unclepizza1291 2 ай бұрын

Born in ‘91, we’re basically the same age!

@g4by.l4n 2 ай бұрын

thx ben!

@daniellacestar1965 2 ай бұрын

Tack

@BamBamdjs 2 ай бұрын

Thanks Ben, your analysis is amazing

@philipdipaula9393 2 ай бұрын

excellent content, but brevity is the soul of wit, as they say. you will have improved viewership if you condense the material

@ITC_Admin 2 ай бұрын

👉x.com/intocryptoverse/status/1819786523442610633 ✔️

@reisefan512 2 ай бұрын

The recession in the 1970's was also ugly...

@arthurvanderkooij5456 2 ай бұрын

so basically buying btc when the risk metric is low and only starting to buy eth and alts when QE starts!

@sdfg-gj9to 2 ай бұрын

someone explain to me why these metrics come out after the rate cut are decided

@Slenderman63323 2 ай бұрын

It's just how the data is published. The fed probably sees more granular data than we do

@BunnyHoperStar 2 ай бұрын

Not Bitcoin dominance recession indicator ? 👀 Just kidding, thanks for the work Ben 🔝

@Angelgrl 2 ай бұрын

Hi Ben 😊 thanks for the video ❤😊

@grillmaster95 2 ай бұрын

Those growth figures are great and all, but it doesn't feel real for normal people. The middle and lower class have been getting strangled by energy and food costs. God help you if you have to purchase a home. The gig economy "jobs" that people have now are showing up in the explosion of part-time positions, and full-time employment numbers have been falling for awhile. Those part time jobs do not allow for personal growth toward a sustainable future with the inflation surge we saw since the sickness

@BingeHD720 2 ай бұрын

I'm working in texas right now and I'm glad to see an abysmally low unemployment rate.

@golftownpro999 2 ай бұрын

What wut? 🤔

@BingeHD720 2 ай бұрын

@@golftownpro999 Ben covered it in the video.

@BasicShapes 2 ай бұрын

I've been thinking we're due for a recession starting somewhere in 2025 or beginning of 2026 sometime

@dagtailgroundmaintenance 2 ай бұрын

I wish i was intelligent enough to understand what he's talking about 😅 I've got my bag and ill wait and see

@1bird_d 2 ай бұрын

I LOVE RECESSIONS YAY YAY YAY #money #federalgovernment

@biplav32 2 ай бұрын

Whenever indicators like this get widely distributed like this it stops working.

@Daniel-de9lq 2 ай бұрын

Admit it, you only made this video to show off that map timelapse.

@dr.fragrance3185 2 ай бұрын

We're all fucked, brothers and sisters lmao

@771shadowolf 2 ай бұрын

I lost 30 percent these last 2-3 months :/

@cinema.inspire 2 ай бұрын

Yeah, top at 68k and goes to 48k

@chadhardin1033 2 ай бұрын

45k 45k 45k 45k then to the moon

@elbow27 2 ай бұрын

Ben is the Spock of Cyrypto and his indicator dashboard is the USS Enterprise!! 😅😅😅😅

@pyles1947 2 ай бұрын

Who knows whats going to happen lol, like calculus--what happens as the limit approaches infinity, well the coffee is going to approach room temperature but if the world is nuked those particle fly off into space...

@JoinTheBlocks 2 ай бұрын

TLDR: Mask - Sahm, under mask - BTC Dominance going to 60%

@MaxLove333 2 ай бұрын

same same but different haha and still same :)

@vevenaneathna 2 ай бұрын

the sahm rule seems like a bit of an ontological argument. you can prove that a square exists because it has all the qualities of a square, 4 equal sides, 90 degree angles. you can prove that god exists because he has all the qualities of god. the logic lapse is the inherent nature of the unemployment rate is cyclical and we skip over the fact that we have to start with a conclusion before we ask the question.

@SuiMaxi 2 ай бұрын

Sell all crypto and exit...omg..its over😂

@valersmutko9632 2 ай бұрын

Then I' ll buy on next ath

@BManStan1991 2 ай бұрын

Everyone panic

@CryptoSharknado 2 ай бұрын

500🎉

@forsupernovae2401 2 ай бұрын

this is a dumb rule because she came out with it after the recessions already happened, so she fit the data to fit her own bias, or she found the answer in search of a question.

@FullyStackedMan 2 ай бұрын

How would you create a model without historical data? That would just be predicting the future using no information lol

@vanquishfist 2 ай бұрын

Isn't that how all analysis formulas work??? 🙄 If I may paraphrase Ben "All models are wrong, but some are useful"

@sdb816 2 ай бұрын

Bidenomics