Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE: intothecryptoverse.com
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
☝️🧐-notice how the *Real Ben* is highlighted and KZbin verified☑️
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@himeshpeiris6932 ай бұрын
Ben!!!!! BTC.D 60%=Taking a hot shower which is much needed 😉😉
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
⚠️Note: beware of fake Ben *scamBots.* • Only *scammers* post an Email or Ph#. • Report all Email, Tgram & Ph# *scams.*
@shivamgangwanii2 ай бұрын
The title Ben wanted to put: The Sahm Rule has signaled BTC dominance to 60%
@rachedhaddar97412 ай бұрын
i wish i could buy some BTC.D coins 😂
@anthonyalessi79232 ай бұрын
@@rachedhaddar9741 huh going bf😮cr
@NickMortuus2 ай бұрын
FACTS, no lies were told
@Chipchap-xu6pk2 ай бұрын
Hello everybody and welcome to the Sahm rule, and its native token, BTC.D
@_pd_70592 ай бұрын
Lmaooo
@DigitalAssetNews2 ай бұрын
I was told we would be talking about bitcoin dominance but this was ok.
@brainharrington2 ай бұрын
I thought it was an acronym for stay at home mom
@RudolfMaister4202 ай бұрын
She has to stay at home because she lost her job
@richard404042 ай бұрын
Great video. Ben you bring the data alive with your analysis. Thank you.
@geisty2 ай бұрын
It's rather disturbing that economists and governments are constantly covering up the actual unemployment math.
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👉27:54✔️
@musicalcontessa42752 ай бұрын
Yes, totally agree!!!!! I have been saying this for at least 7 months now to my friends and family. No open DES offices or office personnel in many states, either. The unemployment numbers being reported are totally fake.
@geisty2 ай бұрын
@@musicalcontessa4275 Yeah if only 161 million Americans have jobs but there are 271 million adults... So they are implying only 4% of 110 million actually need a job when almost everyone is living paycheck to paycheck. Hmmm
@billweir17452 ай бұрын
@@geisty Are you saying people living paycheck to paycheck aren't employed?
@geisty2 ай бұрын
@@billweir1745 touché! I was using the paycheck-to-paycheck phrase as it's generally understood to translate to 'barely getting by'
@tuffwith2effs8992 ай бұрын
The scariest thing right now to me is just how long the yield curve has stayed inverted. How many times has this happened historically? What did it look like on the occasions that it has happened...
@Slenderman633232 ай бұрын
Closest thing would be the 1970s/80s which was not a good time
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@chipshiner23712 ай бұрын
Above ready to uninvert
@leahnjr2 ай бұрын
"We don't have enough data to know" - Ben Powell
@mindlessmusician31172 ай бұрын
The last time the sahm rule was being discussed alot was last year same time. I did some research at the time, and while the narrative goes that the indicator predicts every recession from 1970s onwards, it was fit to the data in 2008.. After the last recession hit. So it's actually like the stock to flow model, that's overfit. When the creator of the ondicator says it wont work this time on its first true test, it very clearly means they overfit the model
@hoopgal32162 ай бұрын
I’m in Florida. Houses for sale are SITTING. Husband works for a major airline & they’ve stopped hiring & canceled their orders of jets. They’re offering the pilots what is called “incentive lines” which means the airline pays you (a reduced pay) to sit at home & not work. They did this during COVID and never before. Oh we are definitely in a recession or the very beginnings…
@tonioinverness2 ай бұрын
"I'm not calling YOU out... well, a little..." 😂
@acook3922 ай бұрын
I reckon Ben had a beer before this one
@vtp28392 ай бұрын
Great video ben!! I usually dont comment on any videos but you are the best data analyst I have ever seen. (Also a funny one, love your humor) I have been watching your videos for 3 years now and you taught me most of what I know about investing/economics. It is working out great. So thank you ben and greetings from germany! Btw btc dominance theory for the win, hope you keep spreading that message next cycle as well :)
@oraoffice95622 ай бұрын
I swear I thought there was a Stay At Home Mom rule recession indicator based on how many SAHMs do or don't do something. Like the gas pump indicator.
@cocolee95282 ай бұрын
Same lol 😂
@steveh.76642 ай бұрын
haha I'm certain there's a metric someone could make based off of stay at home mom's and dad's spending
@PeterS942 ай бұрын
Sahm saw six slippery snakes slither silently southward into Sam’s sphincter.
@kingofcool2 ай бұрын
Lucky Sam
@europana72 ай бұрын
What's more important is the depth/shallowness & duration of the recession.
@Artchick19722 ай бұрын
Thank you for this great explanation 0:31
@etherc34462 ай бұрын
❤ Also watch out for the yield curve uninversion...usually it signals a recession is imminent.
@Scott_722 ай бұрын
Macro videos are my favorite on this channel.
@qxn19992 ай бұрын
What a great explanation of Sahm Rule !!! Thanks Ben!!!
@catherinelilly50652 ай бұрын
Had to chuckle when “dubious speculation” made its way into this video too!
@TheTrancestep2 ай бұрын
One of your most even handed videos on a long time. Great work Ben! I would encourage you to look at the large layoffs coming in from intel and others along with and increase in silent layoffs in tech. The left tail risk here is higher than the market is currently pricing in IMHO.
@XFlyingDutchmanX2 ай бұрын
Thanks for the explanation Ben.
@lucasrozema81972 ай бұрын
I think when analyzing the markets you have to really focus on the liquity side of things as that plays by far the most dominant role. Interest rates are a lot less important in the modern economic cycles.
@roblake98562 ай бұрын
Thanks Ben. Note that the big uptick in unemployment was in large part due to weather related temporary layoffs (Texas) (per yardeniquicktakes | beryling-toward-rate-cuts). Permanent job losers actually declined for the third-straight month. Personally, I welcome an uptick in unemployment to gradually bring down the sticky labor expense inflation.
@mr.c98462 ай бұрын
Excellent video, Ben. Love these metrics.
@jasonweishaupt18282 ай бұрын
It’s never different this time.
@datboi4492 ай бұрын
Sahm gave an interview last year that she believed it would trigger but not result in a recession due to other macro and that her rule would break. Would be interesting to see if an updated interview is out there more recent conditions.
@johnnybraccia4522 ай бұрын
might I suggest an unfortunate confounding variable; The labor market now has a significantly larger percentage of workers who are neither hourly nor salary. Uber, and lyft for taxi and food delivery may have significant cuts in their number of deliveries but not be fired or laid off. There has also been a lot of people who are independent contractors. hairstylists, massage therapists, independent plumbers and electricians, house cleaners... there is a huge list of people who are self employed and they will not be fired, they'll just lose work and income. there is an unemployed population that is probably accurate measured. but the self employed and underworked population will also be contributing to an absence of sales in the economy.
@LionRoarGamer2 ай бұрын
One thing that is influencing this different from the past is that the unemployment rate is going up, not necessarily because people are losing their jobs, but because people who chose not to work are now looking for jobs and are now considered “unemployed.”
@Slenderman633232 ай бұрын
I think it's a sign that COVID excess liquidity is finally being washed out. The money people saved from working at home and collecting EI/stimulus checks was being spent and is now running out. Alongside the people who quit during the Great Resignation of COVID. So those people are now looking for jobs
@cozzie420782 ай бұрын
Markets tanking because japan raised their rates of. 25% from 0 or even negative rates ...first time in close to a decade. ALLl that free borrowing has now caused panic selling in risk on assets to cover the interest trillions of dollars
@peteradebi95482 ай бұрын
Precisely. Heard $4 trillion in borrowed money from Japan that was invested elsewhere and might now be liquidated. More than enough to spook the markets
@kaptan53062 ай бұрын
I believe she said this time is different because she works for the Fed herself and didn't want to or was cautioned not to cause panic.
@MJLGEE2 ай бұрын
Thank you, Ben!
@RedRocket839212 ай бұрын
Would take umbrage with the Sahm rule being a warning indicator. When it signals it’s usually 25-50% of the way through the recession. This is the first time on this chart that it’s signalled without a recession already underway?
@fordprefect3832 ай бұрын
Your tools and the way you use them are very insightful. Thanks for giving me a new perspective.
@hedu53032 ай бұрын
Thoughts to consider: In the past it nearly overlaps with the yield inversion curve when it breaks above 0. This time we are still below 0. So we have mixed signals.
@MrPikoka2 ай бұрын
Question: Which is the state that is the most closely related(highest correlation) to the Sahm's rule over all? Has it triggered?
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@Civalito2 ай бұрын
thank you ben,what about the yield curve? it's a logn time that you don't mention that
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@TheDan_022 ай бұрын
'I don't know what's going on!' are my thoughts exactly!! 🤣 Such a tricky time to navigate. . .
@3pix2 ай бұрын
Just a note... What is "Today"? In future, if you'd also state date & time of your recording, it'll be greatly appreciated. Be well and thanks again.
@Nistorakee12 ай бұрын
good video, thanks Ben!
@dougmanzo96482 ай бұрын
Exciting and riveting video!!!!!!!!!!!
@mynameis54272 ай бұрын
We have been in a recession for like 2 years at least. We need to recalibrate the indicator.
@brandonducker24062 ай бұрын
Ben i hope you read this. How did you learn all this, what books have you read, what articles do you read, where did you learn to read the charts like you do. How did you start out?
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@peterkling85012 ай бұрын
He started in nuclear physics IIRC
@bssb9362 ай бұрын
Excellent analysis thanks Ben. 😊😊
@victorjared28202 ай бұрын
Wasn't she interviewed this year and said that she thinks it's "different this time" so her own Sahm rule won't apply??
@bethrandosuji30812 ай бұрын
How can you relate this to the price of Home/Real Estate. Whats your opinion please?
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@PreekMedia2 ай бұрын
well I personally just applied for unemployment recently because I was actively applying for the past 3 month, having 4 years of experience and it's been a complete disaster. I've sent hundreds of applications and from 90% I don't even get an answer, remaining 10% say 'we have too many applicants and decided to go with a better fitted candidate'. its so frustrating, I'm confused and not sure what to do
@coveringcambria2 ай бұрын
Thank you Ben
@Josh-py9rq2 ай бұрын
Morning Ben I love these pull backs allows me to buy some more sats
@raphaelestranero2 ай бұрын
watching at 1.5 currently in recession now
@lockkai2 ай бұрын
Bloomberg rates strategist Simon White notes, "The market may be prematurely anticipating a recession that is unlikely to occur before next year at the earliest." He adds that while the Sahm Rule's trigger heightens recession worries, it often lags and misses many equity downturns, making it neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for a recession. Today's unemployment rise was primarily due to an increase in the participation rate.
@LOGASTL2 ай бұрын
SAHM is BTC dominance in Ben. An ancient language once utilized by the Logics, people of truth. In todays society, some remnant of the language remains as indicated by the contemporary phrase describing the last 3 years of the most recent crypto cycle - "he Ben right."
@Willopo1002 ай бұрын
we have been in a recession for nearly 2 years. My bet is we are at the end of it and about to go into a couple years of great economic growth globally.
@TheGenericZer02 ай бұрын
Gonna have to see a major market correction before that, and that mild 2022 correction wasn't it.
@JdWalker-o6w2 ай бұрын
How? Only way they can do that is keep price gauging which we are the end of now
@grillmaster952 ай бұрын
In nominal terms we haven't been, but in real terms, I think we have been in a mild recession
@KoitKago2 ай бұрын
Quantitative easening in back door. Was the reason it was mild. @@TheGenericZer0
@alexgame33572 ай бұрын
Yea and its been funny watching everyone bending over backwards to pretend we have not been in recession.
@sdb8162 ай бұрын
What do you think this means for crypto?
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@TheSevenreddy2 ай бұрын
Hi, would be helpful to view smaller lines and graphs on a higher resolution perhaps ? Can you upgrade your vids to 1440p or 2160p ? Would be pretty cool!
@purplehazzze792 ай бұрын
Amazing content!
@interested_af2 ай бұрын
great video, thank you
@isamustafin86262 ай бұрын
Thanks 👍
@inkyip1232 ай бұрын
how will it affect Btc?
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@RichardPatrick842 ай бұрын
Benjamin Cowen - Not the hero we deserve, but the hero we need.
@space-mike2 ай бұрын
Creator of the sahm rule said it was not technically triggered. Off by .7
@T.Neyma122 ай бұрын
Thank you so much sir. You have really clarified the doubts of so many people that are out there wondering what to do. I'm so happy for the opportunity to be one of your followers. Watching your analysis has really given me a greater portion on how the markets operate. God bless you bro. Watching from Thailand.
@korre832 ай бұрын
Can you make a sahm compared to states which has the highest gdp or highest population instead of just a map of usa? I think that will be more useful.
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@scottstanicky51342 ай бұрын
A lot of people speculating on Twitter and stuff or giving predictions on your favorite political party doing good or bad
@sergeytrojan2 ай бұрын
at this time eth/byc breaking support, waiting for update on this topic 😊
@erbayatik2 ай бұрын
Thanks Ben, you have very good judgment.
@unclepizza12912 ай бұрын
Born in ‘91, we’re basically the same age!
@g4by.l4n2 ай бұрын
thx ben!
@daniellacestar19652 ай бұрын
Tack
@BamBamdjs2 ай бұрын
Thanks Ben, your analysis is amazing
@philipdipaula93932 ай бұрын
excellent content, but brevity is the soul of wit, as they say. you will have improved viewership if you condense the material
so basically buying btc when the risk metric is low and only starting to buy eth and alts when QE starts!
@sdfg-gj9to2 ай бұрын
someone explain to me why these metrics come out after the rate cut are decided
@Slenderman633232 ай бұрын
It's just how the data is published. The fed probably sees more granular data than we do
@BunnyHoperStar2 ай бұрын
Not Bitcoin dominance recession indicator ? 👀 Just kidding, thanks for the work Ben 🔝
@Angelgrl2 ай бұрын
Hi Ben 😊 thanks for the video ❤😊
@grillmaster952 ай бұрын
Those growth figures are great and all, but it doesn't feel real for normal people. The middle and lower class have been getting strangled by energy and food costs. God help you if you have to purchase a home. The gig economy "jobs" that people have now are showing up in the explosion of part-time positions, and full-time employment numbers have been falling for awhile. Those part time jobs do not allow for personal growth toward a sustainable future with the inflation surge we saw since the sickness
@BingeHD7202 ай бұрын
I'm working in texas right now and I'm glad to see an abysmally low unemployment rate.
@golftownpro9992 ай бұрын
What wut? 🤔
@BingeHD7202 ай бұрын
@@golftownpro999 Ben covered it in the video.
@BasicShapes2 ай бұрын
I've been thinking we're due for a recession starting somewhere in 2025 or beginning of 2026 sometime
@dagtailgroundmaintenance2 ай бұрын
I wish i was intelligent enough to understand what he's talking about 😅 I've got my bag and ill wait and see
@1bird_d2 ай бұрын
I LOVE RECESSIONS YAY YAY YAY #money #federalgovernment
@biplav322 ай бұрын
Whenever indicators like this get widely distributed like this it stops working.
@Daniel-de9lq2 ай бұрын
Admit it, you only made this video to show off that map timelapse.
@dr.fragrance31852 ай бұрын
We're all fucked, brothers and sisters lmao
@771shadowolf2 ай бұрын
I lost 30 percent these last 2-3 months :/
@cinema.inspire2 ай бұрын
Yeah, top at 68k and goes to 48k
@chadhardin10332 ай бұрын
45k 45k 45k 45k then to the moon
@elbow272 ай бұрын
Ben is the Spock of Cyrypto and his indicator dashboard is the USS Enterprise!! 😅😅😅😅
@pyles19472 ай бұрын
Who knows whats going to happen lol, like calculus--what happens as the limit approaches infinity, well the coffee is going to approach room temperature but if the world is nuked those particle fly off into space...
@JoinTheBlocks2 ай бұрын
TLDR: Mask - Sahm, under mask - BTC Dominance going to 60%
@MaxLove3332 ай бұрын
same same but different haha and still same :)
@vevenaneathna2 ай бұрын
the sahm rule seems like a bit of an ontological argument. you can prove that a square exists because it has all the qualities of a square, 4 equal sides, 90 degree angles. you can prove that god exists because he has all the qualities of god. the logic lapse is the inherent nature of the unemployment rate is cyclical and we skip over the fact that we have to start with a conclusion before we ask the question.
@SuiMaxi2 ай бұрын
Sell all crypto and exit...omg..its over😂
@valersmutko96322 ай бұрын
Then I' ll buy on next ath
@BManStan19912 ай бұрын
Everyone panic
@CryptoSharknado2 ай бұрын
500🎉
@forsupernovae24012 ай бұрын
this is a dumb rule because she came out with it after the recessions already happened, so she fit the data to fit her own bias, or she found the answer in search of a question.
@FullyStackedMan2 ай бұрын
How would you create a model without historical data? That would just be predicting the future using no information lol
@vanquishfist2 ай бұрын
Isn't that how all analysis formulas work??? 🙄 If I may paraphrase Ben "All models are wrong, but some are useful"
@sdb8162 ай бұрын
Bidenomics
@Kryptodox2 ай бұрын
can you make a prediction for the next year? just like a joke . You don't need to be right . Make an overall prediction BTC SPX everithinhg
@ITC_Admin2 ай бұрын
👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🪑
@lamarsmith8762 ай бұрын
Bitcoin will top in October then it’s done
@mrbullmrbull2 ай бұрын
Nah I'm not investing in high risk assets anymore. WW III is coming, I'm out of crypto for good