The video we've all been waiting nearly 2 months for
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Thanks for your patience! Sorry for the wait, I am getting back into a more regular upload schedule this week.
@MetalBum4 жыл бұрын
Michael Jay - Value Investing hey what happens buddy 👋
@glowlog4 жыл бұрын
Money printer go brrrrr
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Pretty much! If only the Fed could print jobs and consumer confidence.
@tamershahin21724 жыл бұрын
I hope you post more videos Michael. Quality content is needed on YT. Thank you and I’m glad you’re back.
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Thanks Tamer, more coming soon!
@hur18364 жыл бұрын
You've been missing for way too long but I'm always glad, and I'm sure everyone else is too, that your back with great content! Where have you been?
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Thanks for your patience! Aiming to get back to a regular upload schedule going forward :)
@amandasmith11984 жыл бұрын
Do you think the fact that this unemployment is largely in the 30% of the workforce that works in high contact positions but only generates 15% of GDP is factored into the prices?
@idontlikeyouyo4 жыл бұрын
What happened to your episodic series about financial news general? Discontinued?
@utubefun84 жыл бұрын
Michael, I am a fan and truly appreciate you sharing your perspective and investment plan with us during these uncertain times. You are so good at what you do! Thank you for spending the time for the qualify videos and guiding us through.
@carlmaissan43404 жыл бұрын
One of the best commentaries I've seen about how to think about the current market rally, and in particular the tension between the impending recession and an unprecedented QE program. Great work.
@JacobHaines914 жыл бұрын
Always love hearing your insight. Thanks!
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Thanks Jake! I appreciate you and your patience :)
@paulmolyneux95034 жыл бұрын
Is QE really the same as 'printing money', in terms of its effects, especially on inflation. Aren't they just generally swapping something that is very similar to money (i.e. a government bond) with actual money? The net increase in money or money like assets is zero.
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
No, it is a confusing system. When the Fed purchases a bond and adds it to its balance sheet it is creating new money. If that bond is redeemed by the Fed then that money comes back (money removed from circulation).
@paulmolyneux95034 жыл бұрын
@@MichaelJayValueInvesting but the thing they're buying with the newly created money (a treasury for example) is incredibly money-like so the net increase in money is zero.
@jabulani7774 жыл бұрын
Why not just buy stocks from companies that always get government bailouts. They are viewed as 'too big to fail' so just invest in them. They won't be allowed to fail.
@AlexRechevskiy4 жыл бұрын
Absolutely fantastic video! Isn't the stock market a barometer of *future* expectations? In other words, the stock market is correlated not with whether the news is good or bad but only with whether the news is BETTER or WORSE than what was expected. In this case, the markets are simply responding to the fact that economic news isn't WORSE than what was expected.
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Good point. Though it is worth asking, does it make sense that the S&P500 is trading at the same level as Oct. 2019, given that the future is significantly worse than the expectations priced in 6 months ago? The answer is more difficult to evaluate with Fed interventions, but by most metrics the answer is probably no.
@AlexRechevskiy4 жыл бұрын
@@MichaelJayValueInvesting Excellent analysis, Michael, thank you very much!
@Discoworx4 жыл бұрын
You also have to consider the reality of news esp fudged employment figures.
@briandarzev85354 жыл бұрын
The said that stocks weren’t overpriced in 2001 and 08 when warren was sitting on cash
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
I have a video specifically on Buffett in the works. Interestingly despite his motto "be fearful when others are greedy", he generally has tended to be fearful when others are fearful. Likely driven by his risk averse nature and investment style. (Looking back in reference specifically to his purchases in 2008/2009.)
@moresugartradercc27444 жыл бұрын
@@MichaelJayValueInvesting looking forward to seeing that video
@davem37894 жыл бұрын
I think Buffet is a little more cautious than he used to be. He’s 89 and he may be worried about a big loss thinking he may not life long enough to bring Berkshire back.
@MetalBum4 жыл бұрын
Great video Michael
@Maddenman70344 жыл бұрын
10:45 .... have you been maintaining around a 40% cash position for the past three months?
@bradchen43694 жыл бұрын
Good sharing. But I am not quite convinced why you keep bonds out of your portfolio? Long term US gov bonds are a good hedge to the volatility of equities. Bond's return is not just dividends but also NAV appreciation. For example, TLT has grown 22% YTD.
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Thanks Brad. Any NAV appreciation on TLT will come from lower treasury rates. The bond holders with TLT benefited from the hedge in Feb-March, but now that we are at much lower rates there is less possibility for NAV appreciation going forward (unless rates go negative), and you have the possibility of a decreasing NAV in TLT if rates rise. You can certainly own them, I just don't personally think the risk/reward (even as a hedge) is very favorable here.
@bradchen43694 жыл бұрын
@@MichaelJayValueInvesting Hi Michael, You are definitely right about the relationship between bond NAV and interest rate. However, I think the future is unpredictable. I would not be surprised if one day FED cuts the interest rate to negative. I am mainly using a Permanent Portfolio for my investment.
@bradchen43694 жыл бұрын
@@MichaelJayValueInvesting The return in bond funds does not come purely from interest rates dropping. It also comes from sources such as a yield curve steepness, and from reinvesting maturing bonds. In fact, if interest rates were to gradually rise over the years, bond funds will perform well. So it's incorrect, and overly simplistic, to say that bond funds need yields to drop, to produce a return. That's not how bond funds work. Japan had treasury bond rates near 0% for many years, even lower than we have now. Bond funds in Japan have actually done quite well over the decades.
@ricardovieira4824 жыл бұрын
Good afternoon Michael, first of all congratulations on the work you are doing. Based on the current uncertainty and your suggestions, I had some doubts. At this moment, what kind of actions do you recommend? Did you talk about gold funds, like for example? Thanks and sorry for some mistakes, but I'm Portuguese ...
@abhijitkhialani4 жыл бұрын
Saw ur channel 1st time..it has relevant content with lucid explanation..keep up the good work..
@PetraruRazvan4 жыл бұрын
i wish you could sell your spreadsheet without having to commit to a 200$ yearly membership, other than that everything else is spot on! Keep up the good work
@bd84214 жыл бұрын
Michael, great video! Thanks. Do you reccomend any short term money market funds for 2020?
@CrankingAllDay4 жыл бұрын
Market is way too high... Did people forget that this whole economic recession is going on?
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
As economic data starts rolling in during Q2, I think markets will begin to "remember". Fed printing is the key unknown variable though.
@valterrebelo65244 жыл бұрын
Such a great video. Learned some useful tools 🧰
@edwardzachary14264 жыл бұрын
You've said you use the vangaurd money market funds. Will that and bond etfs have yeilds that trail the current bond yeilds since they primarily have bonds but have older bonds? So will their yeilds be higher than current bond yeilds now but lower as time goes on and their older bonds get converted to newer bonds? Is that how it works?
@lifeforgod074 жыл бұрын
That's weird you mentioned Facebook. During the crash, the only stock I ended up buying was Facebook at 150 a share. Thought process was the CoronaVirus isn't going to slow them down in the long run no matter how bad it got, and the FB balance sheet is incredibly strong with a great business model. It was the only no brainer purchase I could think of during that short time.
@reeceleyh19894 жыл бұрын
Great insight, Michael. I've been watching your videos since 8 am today. Thank you!
@drpguzman4 жыл бұрын
Good seeing you back in action with new content!
@jonathancreative57794 жыл бұрын
whats your philosophy in diversifying equally into emerging markets and developed markets? emerging markets have historically low p/e ratios and cape ratios and seem extremely attractive in comparison to us markets
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
I generally have been skeptical about large allocations to emerging markets, as I have less understanding confidence in regulation and capital allocation habits for emerging market companies. Returns from VWO ETF over the last decade have been poor despite having a lower P/E, P/B than the US during that entire time period.
@sandpiperbf97674 жыл бұрын
I am investing in broad etfs for global markets with the lowest valuations.
@sandpiperbf97674 жыл бұрын
Also emerging market bonds
@InvestingwithKurt4 жыл бұрын
Couldn't agree more. Nice approach to your portfolio!
@albertbryant14034 жыл бұрын
Great explanations and yes using good valuation tools like your spreadsheet is very helpful for me
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Glad it was helpful!
@HamiltonRb4 жыл бұрын
With interest rates at all time lows is a classic 50/50 stock / bond balanced portfolios a thing of the past
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
I would agree, returns likely much lower and risk much higher than in the past. A gold/stock portfolio makes more sense to me for a long term allocation. Buying bonds here is more a speculation on negative rates (which would be positive for gold as well).
@HamiltonRb4 жыл бұрын
Walter Schloss I can recall interest rates north of 16% and stocks were flat, but this was well before the Fed started treating the monetary supply like monopoly money
@alfonsogrillo20014 жыл бұрын
Hi Michael, very good content! :-) I was wondering if you are a global stock market investor or if you only focus inside US. I think in this particular period you can find value in other countries (China, Europe, Russia, Latin America and so on). What do you think?
@MarkEm4 жыл бұрын
Top quality analysis Once I saw all the tabs I realised “here's a guy I can relate to”
@carlbowden47124 жыл бұрын
For Michael if no money in bonds I'd say hold some VTIP for inflation coverage
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Good suggestion, though I am not really a fan of TIPs as 1) I don't really trust that CPI will match my personal inflation rate and 2) that TIPs rates can go negative if inflation expectations turn negative. In the case of 2) I would rate just hold cash. In the case of 1) I would prefer gold for long term monetary hedge
@CinemaTeacher4 жыл бұрын
Great video, Michael, and just signed up for your newsletter! Looking forward to it! P.S. Yesterday I invested in VIAC (ViacomCBS) and today I read that they're announcing "Cash Tender Offers" for up to $1.0 billion and I see their price climbing. What does this mean? 🤔
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Hi Roberto! Just FYI I am not currently very active with the free group (but that is something I am hoping to revamp later this year). As for VIAC, tender offer means they are offering to buy back a security they issued for a certain cash price. In this case it looks like $2B of their bonds. Doesn't directly affect you as a shareholder.
@CinemaTeacher4 жыл бұрын
@@MichaelJayValueInvesting, thanks so much for the education! I really appreciate it.
@KimchiFlavoredRamen4 жыл бұрын
What ETF would you recommend for investing in gold? Are there better alternatives than ETFs?
@slicedGabe4 жыл бұрын
Buy physical gold
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Buying some small physical isn't a bad idea if you can get it for reasonable premiums, though it is difficult finding inventory these days. I have my positions in gold ETFs that are fully allocated. Sprotts funds I have used in the past, but most of new purchases are in SGOL.
@homesbyjgr4 жыл бұрын
I missed you glad you are back
@IrelandVonVicious4 жыл бұрын
Stocks are not disconnected. They are moving from short to long positions. All based around money printer going Brrrrrrrrrr. Every time they get bad news they buy because they got more excuse for Brrrrrrrrrr. They are betting on future mass inflation.
@bonniehanh-nhinguyen12924 жыл бұрын
Is there any limit for FED's money printing?
@charanbirrekhi90774 жыл бұрын
How do u invest in gold, is there a etf or fund name
@bretray75064 жыл бұрын
GLD or IAU
@craigcothren66294 жыл бұрын
SGOL has the lowest management expense.....GOLD the mine company will continue to out perform SGOL as gold prices continue to increase ....and the stock pays dividends
@carlbowden47124 жыл бұрын
I'd also recommend looking at PHYS, Sprotts physical gold fund, I own that and IAU
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
I use SGOL, low mgmt fees and fully allocated bars. Sprotts funds work too but may have extra IRS filing for US investors in taxable accounts to qualify for the lower LTCG tax rates. PHYS is the Sprotts gold fund.
@sengvang37184 жыл бұрын
@@bretray7506 I be careful with buying GLD because HSBC is the custodian for GLD. Alot of issues with HSBC.
@mreman0074 жыл бұрын
Why is shorting the market not more widespread by institutions, specifically as a way to make positive returns, as opposed to buying "bonds"?
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Shorting can be tricky especially if you get caught on the wrong side of a trade (short squeeze). Most managers do not want to take (or are not allowed to take) that kind of risk.
@mreman0074 жыл бұрын
Love your videos 👏👏👏
@seanlynch88694 жыл бұрын
Great video Michael but please post more often 🤣 I totally agree the market seems to be extremely rigged now due to the fed printing so much money. Just one question on the metals allocation in your portfolio, is that just Gold or Gold and other commodities?
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
More to come! And primarily fully allocated gold ETF (SGOL) and some smaller amount in silver ETFs. (no commodities)
@seanlynch88694 жыл бұрын
@@MichaelJayValueInvesting Interesting would you mind explaining that decision process?
@LearnWithMike4 жыл бұрын
Looking at Shiller's P/E or Buffet indicator everything looks expensive due to crazy valuations of tech companies (FAANG) they represent like 15-20% of SP500 index but if you remove them from the equation market is fairly valued
@syncbrother4 жыл бұрын
Excellent video. Thanks for your bonds comment. I've been feeling the same so glad to hear the same from someone so talented
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
No problem! It is just hard for me to justify such low rates in the face of such significant currency expansion. While we may hit a deflationary shock with this recession in the short term, currency expansion of that scale is an inflationary force.
@rjw64874 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the video! I for myself think it is wise to currently honor the metals with a 30% stake. But that's just me. P.S.: Will you make the google sheet available to play with? (Would earn you fame! 😉)
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Metals will be volatile in the ST, but long term they likely will do much better than bonds at these low rates. Full access to those advanced sheets in my group in the description. I also have several tutorials on my channel to build them yourself :)
@buckleupbuckeroo4 жыл бұрын
Excellent content. Well done
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Much appreciated!
@benji25264 жыл бұрын
The market need to crash during the Q2 which will offer us great deals.
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
That is what I am preparing for. Economic realities in Q2 will likely be pretty harsh for many of the non-tech companies, which should start to get priced in as that data comes out.
@rightlane49604 жыл бұрын
Wait until the market prices in the possibility of a Biden presidency.
@ichoudhury0074 жыл бұрын
Michael, I’m looking forward to see more videos with quality analysis as always. Please keep up the great work. You know, I would love to see you deep dive on Gold Investments. Which is the best option- Gold ETF, Mining companies or real gold (bars, coins etc). I have mixed feelings but love to hear your thoughts.
@_darkbrian4 жыл бұрын
I thought you're gonna talk about $BRKb a little more
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Plan to address that more in upcoming Buffett video. Cash drag has weighed on BRK.B for a while, and may continue to do so. Very conservative which is what most BRK.B investors have come to expect so expectations are likely less than the market anyway.
@utuber48412 жыл бұрын
The stock market is like we took your investment and now your poorer!
@TheCustomer4 жыл бұрын
Have you thought about uploading all ur content on spotify podcast?
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Not currently, but might consider it in the future. Need to get back to more consistent uploading here on KZbin first!
@sgtsnakeeyes114 жыл бұрын
11:10 "don't time the market by going all cash because that generally doesn't work"... so if it doesn't work for 100% of your portfolio why would it work for 50%? or 20% or 1%?
@mreman0074 жыл бұрын
I'm shorting Twilio
@DirtyMinusBit4 жыл бұрын
shorting the strongest stock is often not the best idea. Stock market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent. No hate, just saying.
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
I presume on the basis of valuation? I agree that it is overvalued, but anything can happen short term (see TSLA as example). Just be careful when shorting!
@zgreg4274 жыл бұрын
Nwl update. Need Accountability if giving investing advice. U bought in the 20s. Down 50%
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Not giving investment advice, but yes as an update I did sell NWL for ~$18 last Sept. Done as an effort to reduce the portfolio weight in special situation/turnaround stocks.
@zgreg4274 жыл бұрын
@@MichaelJayValueInvesting People take your advice tho. Why do you think people watch your videos on stock picks? Are you not better off buying index funds? your picks lag the index. So you have to be careful with your recommendations. Gaining financially from KZbin by giving stock picks is very dangerous.
@travisjacobs34 жыл бұрын
@@zgreg427 It's called doing your own research as this is really meant for. It's what HE is doing. Stop putting blame on someone. If you don't do your own research yes it may be a smart thing to do a index fund. I don't like index funds because they aren't that great. Even gold has beat index funds.
@zgreg4274 жыл бұрын
@@travisjacobs3 He is leading people to believe they can pick stocks. Even he can not pick stocks will all the research and time spent he lags the index. His stock recs have been horrible. He needs to create content to sell you ads to get paid by youtube. He knows index are the best for most, even for him, but he cant make much money off recommending index funds.
@SuperSlayinJJ4 жыл бұрын
Buy Bitcoin
@MichaelJayValueInvesting4 жыл бұрын
Will be interesting to see how it performs over the long term. With central banks printing it has potential to do well, but still very volatile. I generally prefer gold (using SGOL currently) as my monetary hedge given the longer history. Best of luck!