The Truth About Interest Rate Cuts

[@HamishHodder]

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[@insomniactravels6185]

The huge missing factor in this video is the current record DEBT level which makes comparisons to past cycles totally invalid.

[@istvanpraha]

Stocks probably didn’t drop hard in 1990 because they weren’t priced ridiculously like right now

[@odoacredacalcutta5085]

yeah but the FED didn't cut by 50 in 1995, only 25, so it's very different. 50 straight away without any apparent reason means they know something we don't know yet and it's obviously bad news.

[@JoshBeards]

I'm old enough to remember 2019 and 2020. In July 2019, the FFER was 2.42%. That's historically low. Aug 2019: 2.13% Sep 2019: 2.03% Oct 2019: 1.83% Nov 2019: 1.55% GDP was 2.1% and dropping. COVID-19 still hadn't hit the US. Feb 2020: 1.58% Mar 2020: 0.65% First shutdowns were mid-March AFTER this cut. Apr 2020: 0.05% Flatten the curve shutdowns were across the country. The pandemic recession wasn't officially declared until the end of July as it takes 2 consecutive 0% or negative quarters and reports are 30 days after a quarter ends. The Q1 -5% GDP wasn't reported until the end of April after all cuts had taken place. If cutting 50 basis points today is the end of the world, what does that say about cutting 87 basis points in 5 months in "the greatest economy ever?" Economics 101 says you don't cut your central bank rate during a "great economy." You don't need to. We cut almost 100 basis points before the first COVID-19 death was reported in the US.

[@WindowsPcuser]

its because of deflation and unemployement, these interest cuts were neccesary to prevent another recession or possibly worse, a economic depression, this should help hiring and offer a variety of more jobs in the us market. It's not really hard to understand that these rate cuts were for unemployement and deflation, if the rates were kept we could be seeing an deflationary move in the economy and high unemployement.

[@WindowsPcuser]

@@kanoon12789 there also should be other stocks opening to allow more opportunites in terms of investment

[@zwatwashdc]

@@WindowsPcuserwhy is the us facing deflation. What is wrong with the economy?

[@WindowsPcuser]

@@zwatwashdc Since people are spending less due to slightly high interest rates, the government wants to cut some of the rates so getting jobs, and spending becomes easier, atleast 2 percent inflation is good for the economy.

[@TuanTran-sl3lv]

Great video.Thanks Hamish

[@scottlink4399]

Normally I like your content, but what do we make of glaring recession signals? And the Fed's own target rate estimates are too low to be considered a minor adjustment. I don't know how you can ignore the glaring issues in the banking and real estate sectors at the moment. Banks are drowning in underwater bonds and loans. If the Fed hadn't cut rates, we would have seen a deluge of bank failures, and we still might even with the anticipated cuts.

[@Quietlyconfident84]

Great video. Very detailed

[@tiagojoaoollo5703]

I absolutely love this channel, you're a great storyteller Hamish. Keep it up!

[@simone_maya]

The stock market will go down further and goodluck on the fed pausing rate hikes w/ all the hawkishness that has failed to keep up with inflation.

[@FranciszekPawal]

If the unemployment rate is able to remain steady while the Fed hikes so aggressively and inflation falls back to target, a soft landing might be on the table

[@jennykatie123]

I don’t know why investors are increasingly confident the Fed won't raise interest rates again in September.

[@ryanl2324]

Not sure about the US, but Australia has been in a per capita recession for the last year and a half. Does t seem like a healthy economy to me

[@Naden]

Your a legend, good quality ❤

[@HamishHodder]

thank you!!

[@naumanhaider316]

In all honesty i love hearing you and brandon speak, its the other side of the coin that really helps one to ground themselves. Think rationally before acting on anything. I am sure of a recession but no one can time it which is why grounding yourself is important.

[@stevenrose7419]

Very clever guy watched your content for awhile. I like the depth of content you provide it's actual research not just opinion it's factual. Good stuff Hamish 👍

[@charleshacker765]

Excellent research, my friend. Keep up the good work. You have a unique niche.

[@Alberto6789-e1p]

People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.

[@hellinggayle]

Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.

[@JohnHogan197]

Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things

[@jerrellholder8382]

True in Toronto I use to buy a Barbican 6 pack for 4.99 now it's 12.99 lol that's alot

[@F0XRunner]

Housing market is going to go crazy again and corporate commercial real estate is still screwed.

[@bestvideos4ever1]

Housing market is still in Buble,

[@tHebUm18]

@@bestvideos4ever1 Not a bubble at all, just what happens when the nation dramatically underbuilds relative to population growth for a decade. That's why high rates did nothing to stymie prices increasing and certainly lowering rates won't lower prices.

[@nonexistent5030]

Population growth and total housing unit inventory have grown at the same rate since 2000. The last decade was not underbuilding, it was indigestion following 10 years of overbuilding culminating in a collapse. There is no shortage. ​@tHebUm18

[@nonexistent5030]

​@@tHebUm18the holdup in prices is better explained by widespread interference by politicians in defaulting during Covid, states like CA and other political actors offering down payment assistance etc, and a massive influx of illegal immigration that helped elevate demand to debalance the supply and demand equation.

[@tHebUm18]

@@nonexistent5030 No. The damage happened between 2008 and 2019 when we built less than half the housing needed to accommodate population growth. It just didn't blow up until the lowest mortgage rates ever made everyone dogpile buying property. Until the housing supply compensates for that decade+ hole, prices will not decrease. Simple supply and demand problem. That's why it's not a bubble. The prices aren't high due to speculation, they're high because there's not enough for everyone to live in.

[@danyunowork]

(4 to 5) is one cutting cycle just with a 8 month pause in the middle. Same for (7 to 8) it's one cycle with 3 month pause. And would be interesting to know if 4 and 6 were known to be recessions at the time or revised afterwards when it was obvious they couldn't lie about it any more.

[@clintonanderson751]

So...we don't have an economic crisis in our hands? There is no housing bubble, no tech bubble, and the US currency isn't being considered for replacement as the world's currency for international trade? That's weird, the numbers must be lying to me. I guess I'll just dump all of my money into real estate and Nvidia. 👍

[@HamishHodder]

all certainly possible, time will tell! thanks for watching :)

[@evogreenrow8692]

Remember, Biden changed the definition of Recession.

[@cantbsdave]

@@evogreenrow8692 correct- we've technically been in and out of recessions.

[@oleksandr15437]

If dollar would being replaced, why would you hold dollar, and not nvidia shares that represent a profitable high growth company?

[@afailable]

Currency debasement and asset bubbles tend to look the same

[@rustler160]

Thank you for that useful information from history, but I think if you take into consideration the extreme level of inflation we experienced after COVID, and the high peak of the interest rate, not to mention the fact that housing inflation still hasn't budged, it seems that we are not in a safe position. Even if inflation has fallen dramatically Y-o-Y, consumers have still lost almost 10% of their purchasing power without wages rising enough to compensate them. The prices will never come down again for them (unless there is deflation - which will be an even worse fate).

[@zwatwashdc]

10%? People lost a cumulative 30-40%. At least.

[@unFortunateSon21]

When the 1% tells you it’s safe, it’s always the opposite. These people are not your friends.

[@KenW418]

Exactly. Watch their actions, don't listen to their words. Over the last year the wealthiest people have been dramatically increasing their cash position and reducing equities and then telling the masses that everything is fine.

[@MidwestOptimist]

Hamish makes another high quality product. Thank you mate!

[@OexRex]

As a believer in bond market, back to 1990, the sole corollary signaling “recession likely” is NOB spread, i.e. 30 year bond yield falling below 10 year note yield. It di not in either 1995 nor 1998, it did in ‘90, ‘99 - ‘00, ‘06 and in ‘22. Why is NOB so significant ? Simple; as recession appears and fed lowered FFR, it’s human nature to “lock” in the highest yield as long as possible and when bond vigilantes but the long bond it’s price rises simultaneously yield falls. Simple action/reaction. It really is basically simple ! 😄

[@PianoMatronNeeNee]

❤ 👏👏👏👏Great sharing my friend 👍. I enjoy your videos ♥️I hope you have a healthy and good day 😊

[@oliversmith7820]

Thanks

[@zwatwashdc]

I am thinking back to how the Fed just keep slashing rates and printing money while the housing market went completely nuts, people lined up around the block to waive inspections and pay big dollars for a house that was worth 40% less a year ago. And yet they just kept printing. It was obvious into whose pockets the majority of the money was landing and what it was being spent on, yet they just kept printing. Look at the mess the housing market is now. I expect they are doing the same thing for the stock market now. The Fed will goose it until prices are just so high and nobody can afford it and everyone has a hangover. I expect this is about inflating away debt as housing and the stock market probably drives the pricing of most things in the economy. The question is, how close is the end of the party? Cause stocks fall a lot faster than real estate.

[@plica06]

I agree with a few comments here that are surprised by your assertion that this rate cutting cycle is not due to a shock to the economy. Surely the cost of living crisis and stressors in the property market are shocks? On the other hand many people have and are doing very well due to the stock market rising so these shocks are not being felt equally everywhere.

[@sofy56554]

Everything will goes down like never before the next 2 years will get worse.

[@raymond-i2v]

I see the rising interest rate as a very big problem, as more investors will definitely pull out more money from the Stock market. This might have worked when I was still invest-ing with a couple thousand dollars, but it is more difficult now to decide whether to pull out more than $365k from my port-folio. I know some inves-tors still make that despite the strong bear market. In wish I could pull that feat

[@Jeffery-f2e]

You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a broker, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.

[@Fred-w7t]

This sound interesting. I’m not really one to use pro analysts, but I guess it would not hurt to try one. My portfolio is in the red waters right now

[@Jeffery-f2e]

‘’Jessica Lee Horst’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@JeroenHerbrink-lm4mq]

Hamish, you forgot to do S&P return PER type, I was getting totally hooked for that - but then the video just ended...

[@dknaujoks9285]

Nice video!

[@HamishHodder]

thank you for watching and subscribing!

[@ThatonedudeCR12956]

I was expecting people to attack you for not spreading doom and gloom by exclaiming that "all hope is lost and to buy gold immediately." I am a bit surprised by just how negative the comments actually are. In your other videos where recession seems to be implied, the comments are incredibly positive and glowing. Please don't change your messaging in order to appease the masses and the algorithm. Having a channel doing actual research and showing their work is becoming increasingly rare. It's relieving to find a channel willing to provide the data as it is and saying "nobody knows what will happen" is the actual truth and needs to be said more often.

[@Swolejohll]

Cost of living is the highest it has ever been, and the Fed cuts rates. I’ll just live in an apartment forever.

[@sanketsinha2152]

We are in case one scenario if you consider the AI bubble which started to pop in August.

[@HamishHodder]

it's possible! time will tell. thanks for watching :)

[@MartoDriftz]

He said about deflation being dangerous, but id say its only dangerous for those with the most power and money to lose. Those with stable jobs would retain their current wages and buying power woild increase as items became cheaper. What's bad about that 😂😂 one could only dream of such a great scenario 😅

[@jbjergh]

Please stop the X files music.

[@RealVedicAstrology]

You’re flat out wrong Jerome Powell even said it himself that the U.S. labor market is weakening and so the rise in the unemployment rate is the economic factor leading to the rate cut🙄.

[@kevinfreimarck3301]

Where's an update on your portfolio and what are you doing now?

[@zza00azz]

It's early stage type 1.

[@Pokevolver]

Disagree, I think this is a type 1 like the 2001 was. Dot Com boom was enhanced by the FED cutting rates in 1998 and then was popped by the raising of rates, exactly like our current boom right now was from the huge surge of COVID money and insane monetary easing. They raised rates to stop the ever-inflating bubble. Now they need to cut to get ahead of the aftermath as early as possible. But I guess we’ll see!

[@adriansmith7604]

Trying to slow RECESSION but to late CORRECTION BIG in 2025

[@ericR1999]

love when kids without Ph.Ds in economics talk about monetary policy. lmao 😂 what a narcissist f

[@bloodynine801]

Expect relatively high rates and higher inflation for the entire decade now.

[@cryptocsguy9282]

@bloodynine801 & WW3 probably 😮

[@OUD4444]

I don’t care what happens I keep investing and always have a decent enough amount of cash on the side to hammer a bear

[@frozenlkea6188]

How much research did you do just for this video. :O

[@djtechzz]

The Japanese carry trade will cause a recession

[@raoulhery]

back to the money printing !!! Inflation all over again?

[@HamishHodder]

let's hope not!!

[@tengoken4313]

Only if trump gets elected

[@bestvideos4ever1]

GERMANY is short of Money, EUROPE is on brink of a FALL. Lets hope that this minor interest rates CUT will be enough to hold all together....or its gonna be a WiLD ride

[@volkerengels5298]

​@@HamishHodder Hope is the last emotion I would engage in. It makes no sense. please be so smart - it is not "No Hope" what I'm advertising here :))

[@zwatwashdc]

In which case the only housing you should consider is gated behind barbed wire. There are a lot of poor people in this country and the number is growing every day.

[@JoshBeards]

I'm old enough to remember 2019 and 2020. In July 2019, the FFER was 2.42%. That's historically low. Aug 2019: 2.13% Sep 2019: 2.03% Oct 2019: 1.83% Nov 2019: 1.55% GDP was 2.1%. COVID-19 still hadn't hit the US. Feb 2020: 1.58% Mar 2020: 0.65% First shutdowns were mid-March AFTER this cut. Apr 2020: 0.05% Flatten the curve shutdowns were across the country. The pandemic recession wasn't officially declared until the end of July as it takes 2 consecutive 0% or negative quarters and reports are 30 days after a quarter ends. The Q1 -5% GDP wasn't reported until the end of April after all cuts had taken place. If cutting 50 basis points today is the end of the world, what does that say about cutting 87 basis points in 5 months in "the greatest economy ever?" Economics 101 says you don't cut your central bank rate during a "great economy." You don't need to. We cut almost 100 basis points before the first COVID-19 death was reported in the US

[@sean2549]

All the soft landings are 75bp or less we are going to be cutting more than 200 bp by 2026 and thats no recession.

[@taiyabraja]

Unemployment is on a clear upward trajectory. That’s what they’re spooked by.

[@SaadonAksah]

Hold long term. Ok got it 👍

[@adie2u]

No Recession , Not that you know about ??? Just a thought

[@aidarbeymanaliev6785]

С Днем Рождения 🎉🎉🎉дорогой друг

[@MS-cs7gt]

Type 2 - China real estate crisis ?

[@TheShadeManGuitar]

This is gaslighted. The us economy is garbage right now.

[@mvs9122]

It is impossible to know what reality is. There is no true price discovery.

[@cantbsdave]

job hiring down 41% right now. Part time jobs hiring galore.

[@MidwestOptimist]

I couldn't agree more. Faux news or no news.

[@tHebUm18]

Vibes > data, amirite?

[@lakshnaramesh9733]

If so, don't stay in the garbage, come out of it

[@coldstone87]

This is a tech driven rally. AI is a ground shaking technology. AI will change the productivity calculation for ever. Forget history. None of that shit matters now

[@gordonzar992]

AI Bubble bursting?

[@jakepapa6516]

This comment section is... 😅

[@royalty3509]

Or maybe just maybe, the narrative will suddenly into the nuclear war aka ww3

[@nikyabodigital]

It is political right?

[@tHebUm18]

No.

[@AlejandroCampo-fq8yi]

3:50 “There was already a wide spread economic event taking place”. What about Russia-Ukraine War or Israel-Palestine conflict? Shouldn’t they be considered as something taking place right now?

[@tHebUm18]

If you use a broad definition, there's literally always something take place. Ukraine-Russia perhaps, Israel-Palestine is a nothingburger economically. Fed very much citing neither or anything other particular happening for influencing their rate decision.

[@boombustinvest]

THE BEAR CASE = weekly SP500 is currently a double/triple top. If the double/triple top breaks out it migrates to a weekly H&S with new all time high head formed by Fed rate cut + October volatility... then we have the FOMO Santa Rally. Fed pivot in 2000 and 2008 were both followed by a 3.5 week rally, both of which subsequently broke down into their respective crashes. Maybe this time it's different due to the markets delusional belief that AI will somehow deliver magical ROI and increase revenues/earnings due to a few increases in productivity... Big tech has spent $trillions on this spurious herd psychology belief. The AI hype/bubble continues along with Soft landing media brainwashing and we push on to a fully fledged blow off top (the 'head') around 6000 to 6200 on the SP500.... Santa rally for 2024 and then a new year hangover... AI chickens coming home to roost with a dawning realisation that these revenues/earnings/ROI are a long way off. If unemployment continues to rise into the first quarter 2025, the 'market' will start to accept defeat and will start pricing in recession which will trigger the end of the blow-off top and the start of secular decline as institutions and hedge funds will sell into the weakness at blow off top all time highs knowing that it could be quite some time before we get back to 6K again. Selling will beget selling and retail will join the stampede. In addition, we have had the best part of 2 decades of ZIRP which has blown up the "everything bubble" and so with interest rates now going back up, the risk is that the bubble pops when asset prices readjust to permanently higher rates.