The Ultimate Nvidia Stock Hedge, and the Truth About Big Tech AI Spending

[@NVDAinvestor2024]

TSM data show that this semi cycle still have several more years as TSM has maxed out their capacities

[@nicoled5160]

This is one of the most quality shows on KZbin. I just love hearing about your research and a fun presentation. Thank-you. Ps. Even your sponsors for videos are quality and thoughtfully selected.

[@sirus312]

Wonder if NVDA will attempt to acquire anyone? I'd hate to see PSTG get taken out, but makes the most sense for NVDA to dominate that market as well.

[@Matthewbyrd86]

Glad to hear some cycle commentary - this is important to watch for anyone who wants to tactically shift positioning (not advocating for that by any means, btw) from time to time.

[@larsnystrom6698]

I wonder how Microsoft gets revenue from their AI investments.

[@antonystringfellow5152]

Good information on the use of accelerated compute - how it's not all going to generative AI. However, personally, I'm not concerned about the naysayers claims re generative AI. It's a field I've been following closely for many years, just out of interest, so I've seen how the power of these models has increased and is continuing to do so at an accelerating rate. I'm not really concerned about the hype because I see the reality fast catching up on that hype. Nor am I concerned about whether we're close to creating human-level AGI yet or indeed if it will ever be possible. As an investor, this is just noise. As an investor, all I want to know is how useful they are - how much they can boost productivity. I am more interested in their power as tools than whether or not they are truly intelligent. And they are very powerful tools... increasingly so. One more point: AI is not all about generative AI. Predictive is at least as important and probably more so. Both are improving at a pace.

[@jonm1066]

Would like more aehr videos. Hope they do well in their upcoming earnings 🎉

[@missunique65]

the only thing ai did was distract the market from a recession. and make a lot of money for powell and his friends.

[@simonposener7601]

Nice video.. Just subscribed.. NVDA is by far my biggest holding... I am thinking about getting my son into VGT or SMH.. any thoughts... perhaps a future video...

[@chipstockinvestor]

Thanks for subbing! We own VGT ourselves. Here is a recent video that might help: kzbin.info/www/bejne/Y2aZio2jib6spsU

[@shannonoliver7992]

Loved this update! Definitely passive investing for me, though also waiting to pull some weeds in a melt up. Watching, commenting and liking from 35,000 feet in the air, which still blows my mind. I’m going to build a war chest for this 26-28 downturn. Let’s go!!! 🎉🎉🎉 Thanks for another banger!

[@chipstockinvestor]

We've got this Shannon! 2026 bring it on!

[@mshparber]

Isn’t CAPEX depreciated by several years? When you say “when CAPEX go down the profits go up”, don’t you mean FCF go up? Because profits reflect the depreciation only, not the CAPEX itself, so the profit might not change that much immediately when CAPEX decreases…. Anyway, excellent stuff as usual, thanx a lot!

[@chipstockinvestor]

Yes, we were referring to free cash flow bouncing back, the "real profit metric." You are correct, generally EPS wouldn't be affected because CapEx is depreciated, although lower CapEx would eventually lead to lower future depreciation.

[@kjkgood]

this is really good work thank you Ive been hearing accelerated computing since the beginning and all the "experts" are calling it AI,, well done !

[@chipstockinvestor]

Thank you!

[@amysmereck5912]

I believe Meta is already offering some AI tools for advertisers to use to create ads. Spending money to make it easier for users to spend money with them seems like a good investment.

[@antonystringfellow5152]

"The semiconductor industry is cyclical" is a conclusion based on past performance and while it does seem likely that it will continue to be cyclical, the future will most certainly not resemble the past in this case. We are entering a new era. You only have to look at the power of the latest models to see how fast this field is evolving. With each more powerful, more reliable model that's released, there's a corresponding increase in applicability. I expect further significant advances over the coming months, with the upcoming launch of GPT-NEXT, followed by Orion, likely over the next 1-4 months and I do not see this process slowing down yet. Basically, what I'm saying is that we're VERY early in the game yet. As these models becoming increasingly useful, their adoption will increase. Every more advanced model will come with more use cases and more businesses being forced to use the technology in order to remain competitive. I can't see how this won't have a significant effect on the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry.

[@bonanzatime]

I'm not sure exactly what you mean. Do you expect semiconductors to not bounce back? because of some new advanced technology?

[@robertwilliam9558]

The Rubin platform will be released by Nvidia in 2026. Hold Hold Hold

[@stnln2180]

The holding part is obvious. The question if we should add....🤔

[@NVDAinvestor2024]

Great presentation

[@divalounger]

I so appreciate your videos. And just to say thank you.

[@chipstockinvestor]

Thank you, we really appreciate you watching!

[@kamillakjrvadodgaard5364]

Thank you! 🙏😍

[@Ronnieleec]

What happens with older hyperscaler cloud servers: ampere, Intel and AMD? Do they re-task for lesser workloads or is there a secondary market for them? I suspect with such rapid cycling of semiconductors, the H100 serious will be obsolete for the big guys in a few years.

[@chipstockinvestor]

There is a big secondary market for these things, they can still be used to run less computing intensive applications. There's also an extensive recycling market.

[@Ronnieleec]

@@chipstockinvestor Thank you. That’s interesting.

[@mshparber]

Can you please make a sort of brainstorm video, discussing some possible futuristic new opportunities, less visible today (not data centers). For example, usage of GPUs in home robots, etc. 🙏

[@Kulturjunky]

New to your channel. This was another great video, glad I found you ❤ Two companies from Japan I like are SCREEN Holdings and Disco Corp. Have you looked into those? Best regards from Austria

[@KidrauhlUwU-ky1he]

I bought NVDA after splitting $132 daily it’s taking my patience test both of you are beautiful 🤩 people with gifted calming voice 👏

[@DrJoJoBoxer]

If the hyper scalars are reducing their cap X, I am thinking it would be because they are Concerned about decreasing revenue or profits, they have finally been able to develop their own in-house chips and do not rely on Nvidia as much as they used to or other scenarios that would be an indication that it would go down in symphony with Nvidia. Sure leave there are better hedges. Am I missing something?

[@derekhemberg878]

Is this AI Nicholas here with us?🤖

[@chipstockinvestor]

Yes ... It ... Is ...

[@Dragonwrath0712]

Where can we see the chip stock investor portfolio?

[@heanne1542]

Perfect as always thank you🎉

[@blakemann2365]

This is very good. I am actually very impressed with your reasoning and logic. FYI: I have been in PEVC industry for sometime.

[@chipstockinvestor]

Thank you for watching! We value community members like you in the industry!

[@starmount326]

thank you for the quality video. I have invested in semi sector for years. But this analysis is just way better than that of most semi analysts out there.

[@chipstockinvestor]

Thank you for watching!

[@maxbreak147]

thanks for doing the charts in a dark theme. so much easier on the eyes

[@chipstockinvestor]

Noted, next video the charts are in white, but we like the dark theme too

[@marcoalbertospadacini3792]

When do you talk about "AI bubble"? How can I get back that video? I'm referring to what you say at 1:02 of this video.

[@chipstockinvestor]

Here's the link: kzbin.info/www/bejne/iKecc4F6rJJrfrs

[@marcoalbertospadacini3792]

@@chipstockinvestor thank you!

[@paratirisis]

1st

[@annasillanpaa1111]

Thank you, great again!

[@chipstockinvestor]

Thank you too!

[@heanne1542]

Would you invest in an semiconductor ETF As I can not aford to buy all good companies Thanks for a reply

[@fitbh703]

Yes

[@heanne1542]

Thank you the Van Eyck?

[@fitbh703]

@@heanne1542 smh or soxx they have longest track record and assets under management

[@chipstockinvestor]

Hey there. We like ETFs. Here is a few videos where we cover some ETFs: kzbin.info/www/bejne/Y2aZio2jib6spsU kzbin.info/www/bejne/nX7HaampfNR1p5osi=3pfBXF94JFQqd49R kzbin.info/www/bejne/aYexfXZtgpqpp6M

[@heanne1542]

@@chipstockinvestor

[@tomcarl8784]

I don’t think this is the correct hedge for NVDA. NVDA shares don’t need to be hedged against business cycles as the AI boom is only beginning, it needs to be hedged against a Taiwan invasion. NVDA is hyper exposed in this respect, and not only is this a possible event, it’s likely, and when it happens the mag 7 will also be brutally hit, and therefore not serve even remotely well as NVDA hedges.

[@renato_n.n]

Why is likely?