The "WHY" Behind Basic Strategy for Blackjack - Tip Tuesday 9

[@A1-BJ]

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[@arieldigirolamo9354]

Just told my girlfriend that you guys have the best card counting content in the world. I'm learning a lot from you guys, thanks for all the value!

[@A1-BJ]

I'm just one guy... a math teacher who likes numbers, playing cards :)

[@A1-BJ]

I totally spelled Table wrong at the end... oops!

[@deathlessgamer]

One thing I don't really understand is players pair 10's versus the dealers 2 through 6. Standing on tens versus 7 through ace makes sense to me, you've got a 20 and it's very unlikely that if you split that hand to make anything better. But against a two through six, the dealer has a much higher chance of busting. So why would you not split and win two bets instead of just one? I know you split tens against the weak dealers up card if the true Count gets high enough, but why not every time?

[@A1-BJ]

​@deathlessgamer it's not worth the risk of splittingnyp a winning hand until that high Count. You are better off with an almost certain win than splitting hand hoping to make a good hand again.

[@dylanschang6386]

Youre doing a great job with content, I can tell you really care about production and consistent content. Keep it up!

[@A1-BJ]

Thanks!! ♠️

[@Bran-ns4ys]

more importantly what's the count?

[@jacobjohnston7945]

😅😅😅

[@elliothunt]

-8

[@Hoppy8625]

-3 right?

[@almendratlilkouatl]

-7492815374073915243849601726481736691736194

[@Erik-z1l]

I'm just starting to learn this but either I am totally wrong or I might be understanding this a bit. This would be the running count I believe. 0 after the first hand, after second hand +6, after Third hand +6, after Fourth hand +4, after Fifth hand +3, after 6th hand 0, after 7th hand -4, After 8th hand -7, after 9th hand -7, After 10th hand -9 (as dealer revealed a 2) for 12, after 11th hand -9 as 10 and 3's cancelled out, -9 at the 12th hand and -9 after the 13th hand. Please let me know if I am totally wrong.

[@tobiasf_bs2260]

Beautiful new a1bj mat!

[@A1-BJ]

Thanks!! Many videos to come! Finished the major of the table tonight! It is awesome!

[@bradlyballock3052]

Nice felt moving up in the world!!! Also love the content look forward to every new video.

[@A1-BJ]

Appreciate it! Never thought someone would send me something for free. But I truly hope this is a win for my viewers. You don't need to get a felt, they have cards, trays, shoes, chips, literally anything blackjack or poker! :) I know I'm going to use my own code to get more stuff! lol

[@오늘도살아남았다]

Most useful video in blackjack!!! can you do more of the WHY???

[@A1-BJ]

Sure. I do a lot of the WHY on my Instagram Channel as well.

[@gyereram]

Nice setup

[@Enteruser]

How come some basic strategy charts tell you to stand on soft 18 vs 2 and soft 19 vs 6 whereas other charts say to double?

[@mdiehl192]

It depends on table rules. For games where the dealer is required to stand on a soft 17 (S17 Game), you should stand S18v2 & S19v6. On a table where the dealer is required to hit a soft 17 (H17 Game), you should double S18v2 & S19v6. You might also want to know the third and final difference in the charts happens in the case of an 11vA. You should hit in an S17 game and double in an H17 game. Given the spirit of the video, I'll try to explain the differences. 1) S18v2 [S17 vs H17 game] In an H17 game, the dealer is forced to draw more often than they would otherwise. This usually helps the casino since the dealer ends with a stronger total, but it can also increase the odds that a dealer busts. Because a 2 is rather low, the dealer will likely have to draw multiple cards during their turn. While not exactly likely, it is possible that the dealer draws a combination of cards that sum to 4 and an ace. Again, this isn't very likely, but it turns out to be enough to tip the scales. In an S17 game, the dealer wouldn't bust with these cards. This is important because your decision to take another card (if you double) is unlikely to help your hand. In fact, it will probably make your hand worse. For that reason, we choose to stand. In an H17 game, the dealer would be forced to draw again in the scenario that they have a 2 as their up card and then draw cards summing to 4 and an ace. Since the odds of the dealer busting are higher, we use this chance to double our bet. We don't care as much that our hand may get worse by taking a card because the chance of the dealer busting is greater than it was before. If that happens, our hand total won't matter. Admittedly, the difference between these two actions (as calculated using the hand calculator tool on Wizard of Odds) is only a fraction of a penny for each dollar bet, a very minor difference that happens to be enough to have a tangible impact on which decision is the absolute best one for the purposes of basic strategy. 2) S19v6 [S17 vs H17 game] From the previous example, we know the dealer is more likely to bust in an H17 game than an S17 game. As it turns out, the odds of the dealer busting with a 6 showing in an H17 game are high enough to offset the potential harm that we cause to our hand by doubling a 19. We are likely to win whether we choose to double or not, but doubling allows us to receive an even greater reward when we do. In an S17 game, however, the odds of the dealer busting with a 6 showing are just about low enough that we're better off preserving the showdown value of our hand than risking that equity in order to increase our bet. This change in basic strategy matters more than the last one since the probability of the dealer getting a soft 17 (the only case where the hand would play put differently) is higher with a 6 showing. The dealer needs only to reveal an ace as their hole card. 3) 11vA [S17 vs H17 game] If the dealer (showing an ace) happened to draw to a soft 17, we know the odds of them busting would be greater in an H17 game. As in both other decisions above (#1 & #2), the tradeoff between increasing our bet and improving/maintaining the equity of our hand is affected by this small change in the probability that the dealer busts just enough to warrant a change in play. In an S17 game - when the dealer is less likely to bust - we want to have the flexibility to hit again: our hand total will matter when the dealer chooses to stand on a soft 17. Thus (following basic strategy), we should hit until our hand total is in the range of what we might expect the dealer to have when they stop taking cards.

[@rleegee1761]

Hope all is well A1. This is a great video explaining the why... Is it possible for you to do one on the why behind the indices or deviations?

[@A1-BJ]

Literally just filmed it... kinda. I talk about it in my true count video coming out tomorrow, hopefully.

[@PracticalParlays]

Why do 7’s split against an 8 in a double deck game and not 4 decks - 8 decks

[@jharedcruzada479]

Thanks for the content!

[@A1-BJ]

You bet!

[@thetommantom]

Should have showed the alternative to the first hand like what would happen if you did split

[@santiagokiwi3187]

If I got 21 as much as the dealer does at my local casino I'd be pulled away for a little chat. It's ridiculous they almost NEVER bust. Just when you think you've got it, dealer hits 21 with 5 cards.

[@Policefan234]

Surrender is great 16 vs dealer 10 if your casino offers

[@kathym368]

Question: Is counting cards at a 6 to 5 table profitable? I've started learning to count, but the casinos around me only have 6 to 5, so I am wondering if I am wasting my time.

[@stanleypodlinski5384]

Nah, please stay away from all 6:5 tables

[@A1-BJ]

Correct, you're wasting your time and money at 6:5 tablets.

[@MrBigBas]

What does a 6 to 5 table mean?

[@Scarface1337_]

that's the payout ​@@MrBigBas

[@yourock3794]

I was dealt a pair if aces. Split it, got a soft 19 and another ace. Split it again and got soft 18, and soft 19 again. Of course, the dealer got 20...

[@A1-BJ]

That's variance.. in each case you gave yourself the best hand, though. That's why we play basic strategy!

[@yourock3794]

@A1-BJ yeah, for sure. I was so stoked because I was imagining the $ signs haha. It was still fun, so entertainment value was there :) thanks for the reply!

[@leprechaun3677]

Didn’t think you could double down after hitting; your hand at about 5:00 shows just that.

[@A1-BJ]

When you split, you get a card on each of your split cards, so it's not really a "hit" additionally, as long as your game allows DAS (double after split) this is what that rule refers to.

[@leprechaun3677]

@ ah thanks for explaining; it’s been years since I’ve played and was prepping for my upcoming trip to Vegas. A free blackjack app however was enough to remind me of why I hate the game. If you’re good enough to squeak out a .5 advantage, it’s not worth it to play unless you’re there just for fun. And I know I’m not talented enough to count cards for the advantage.

[@cobykline2069]

On a hard 12 why do you always hit on dealers 2 & 3, also on 10s why wouldn't you split it instead of staying?

[@A1-BJ]

12 vs. 2 or 3 is a hit because the dealer is more likely to make a hand than you are to bust your 12 by hitting. 10-10 is a stand as you will win the majority of the time with your 20. Note: At higher counts there are deviations when all these hands' decisions chance based on the count.

[@AlchemyOfTheFourthKind]

Time stamps?

[@tarciewhitt1156]

So if the hold the card 4 and the dealer got 7,6 do I win

[@A1-BJ]

What? Hold?

[@williamcase426]

BASIC STRATEGY NEVER LOSES

[@AndrewGmitter]

Cuppa times maybe😢

[@egorbasist9532]

It always loses, just not as fast as a regular player. Only perfect basic strategy+counting+deviations+ betting gonna win

[@antoniocoleman7597]

Easy to follow 👍🏾

[@jeremym1365]

I do have a question about basic strategy. I started off in gambling as a poker player before I ever got into blackjack. I look at things slightly different I guess because if it. The notion that 10 is the most likely card in the deck to come up next blows my mind. A deck consists of 52 cards without Jokers. 10, J, Q, K are all valued at 10. There is 4 in a suit which equals 16 possibly cards that equal ten. That means 36 cards equal 9 or less. So, you have a 30.7% chance the next card is a 10 value or a 69.3% chance the next card will be 9 or lower. This really throws me for a loop when I have a hand of 12 and the dealer is showing a hand that has a high bust rate. To me, it makes sense to double on a 12 (or split if it is a pair of 6s). You have a basically 70% chance to get a 9 or less, while doubling your bet and increasing you hand total in case the dealer does beat the odds and doesn't bust. Sure you lose it 30% of the time, but the dealer also doesn't bust every time and you win a few that you would have lost by beating them with a higher total. But when I do this in a casino, I get the table patrons saying that is a horrible decision and at one casino they called the pit boss over every time I did it, making me feel like I was a cheater.

[@A1-BJ]

I see where you might think that would make sense, but trust me, that it doesn't. To prove it, run a simulation and check out the results. It will be substantially worse negative EV than basic strategy alone.

[@krameri5]

Thanks for the math, your logic is very clear and them accusing you with cheating and calling the pit boss is actually validating your point. You might be right, we should do the whole math behind it.

[@vincentnnyc]

You have 1 deck…in a casino, in general…there are 6 decks and the constantly reshuffle

[@CarbonNut]

Basic strategy still applies, regardless of how many decks are in the shoe.

[@ttv.pinedarl7114]

Thats a counting cards issue/worry not a BS worry.you need to always play perfect BS

[@A1-BJ]

If they constantly reshuffle, that is a continuous shuffle machine table, and you are correct, you cannot gain the advantage at those tables. However, in this video, I used 2 decks, which is pretty common. Additionally, the number of decks has no effect on your ability to count the cards as we use a TRUE count regardless.

[@ScarletDeathweaverLegacy]

1:27 77 vs 8 is a losing hand in the long run no matter what you do as 14 is a stiff hand that will likely bust (~56%), 7 is worse than 8 which will also rarely bust (~23%), but to lose the least longterm its usually just a hit to only lose one bet instead if two (but its actually borderline split if DAS and in fact correct in 1D) I think you also split at positive counts especially in a KO system due to a shortage of small cards that youd like hitting the 14 so youre prob gonna bust trying to improve your 14

[@thetommantom]

You say most likely 10 value but I would think the worst case scenario of busting

[@MX-CO]

I don't trust the shuffle machines so I purposely deviate from basic strategy sometimes, not always but sometimes I'll stay on a 14, 15, or 16 to change the cards incase they are purposely shuffling in any type of order.

[@chrissoto7301]

A continuous shuffler or the ones that shuffle and we cut?

[@MX-CO]

@chrissoto7301 I won't play at all on a continuous shuffle. But I also don't trust the ones we cut. At the end of the night at casinos that close, those shuffle machines can put all the cars back in order A through king at the push of a button, .. that being said I don't think they are setting the cards up so that they know every hand, but I do think they could shuffle them in patterns that are more favorable to the casino. I don't know exactly how but I'm sure a computer does. I can play at home, for example, with 3 decks randomly shuffled and through hundreds of times dealing come out very consistently Winning and losing 50% of the time, so why is it that at a casino you go bust so often? And why do you lose 5-10 hands back to back fairly often. That almost never happens if you play at home, Try it if you haven't. And Another thing, why do you suppose they spend thousands on shuffle machines when they have dealers that are perfectly capable of shuffling?

[@A1-BJ]

Conspiracy 🔎

[@DanCole06]

There is no ‘changing the cards’. You need to remove superstitious thiught process from your mind if you want to count cards.

[@MX-CO]

@DanCole06 I don't think they remove cards but the shuffle machines are definitely capable of shuffling in patterns. What is the reason they use them? How about that?

[@phillipdavidhaskett7513]

Plus three at the end of the shoe.

[@ClimbingADK]

Soft 18 against A on stand 17 is a marginal hand to play either way, there is almost no cost to ev to make a mistake on it.

[@A1-BJ]

I just hit it, it's what I've learned on the BJA charts.

[@ClimbingADK]

@ its optimal to hit for sure but as cover it may make you look like a bad player when you are in fact winning. It won’t do much but it may buy you a couple more hands at high counts

[@youngnnn2972]

I need to play at your tables

[@A1-BJ]

These were set up for the purpose of the video being interesting, but playing perfectly does lower the house edge ro under 1%, and if you learn to properly count, you can flip that so you have a 1% advantage!

[@ThatSuccessfulEffort]

Why does the dealer hit, when he has 16 and you have 12??? 🤔

[@A1-BJ]

The dealer must always follow the same rules of drawing until they have 17 or higher. The player doesn't have to abide by those rules, we can hit stand or Double Down whenever, but there is an optimal play for each hand.

[@aakashchhuchhar1993]

3 3 vs 8 hit why?

[@A1-BJ]

Not worth risking double the money (by splitting) when the dealer has an eight. You're better off losing one bet instead of two and moving on to the next hand.

[@Youtuber-xc8vl]

Why hole punch cards

[@A1-BJ]

They are canceled cards from the casino. My new videos don't have them.

[@Youtuber-xc8vl]

@@A1-BJ 👍 np, just curious

[@LUAP1991]

I hate baccarat i love blackjack now ❤

[@Chesside]

Nice video

[@ChaseBoyer-d9e]

Why don’t you double a 9 v 2? Why would you double 11 v A but not 10 v 10? Why hit a 12 v 2 or 3? Because you would have to get a 10 to bust and there’s a lot more cards 9 and lower? Why don’t you double a soft 17 against a dealers 2? Why don’t you split your 9s against a dealers 7?

[@A1-BJ]

Those are all good questions that I'll consider for the next few in this series! Thanks!!

[@davedavester9060]

I split 10s, if dealer has a 5 or 6. I don't split 8s, if dealer has a 10...

[@A1-BJ]

Must not like math...

[@davedavester9060]

@@A1-BJ I like to bet as much as I can against the dealers worst cards. Everyone knows splitting 8s against a 10 is a sucker bet. Have you ever even seen the movie 21...?

[@A1-BJ]

@davedavester9060 have you ever run a simulation? The math says otherwise.

[@omajperkins854]

You see how many 13 came out right that would’ve been like 3 L

[@vinmeister1]

These cards were not random. They were purposely sorted to come up with the proper hands.

[@A1-BJ]

Correct. Makes for a way more informative video. If you want to see random, check out my 50K Bankroll challenge videos.

[@edwardblomquist786]

If you play online the dealer alway gonna make a crazy 21. Of they show a 4 I'm not seeing them pull two bricks like ever

[@A1-BJ]

Don't EVER play online!

[@johnnyquad6795]

Basic strategy changes based on the number of decks and the rules off the table

[@A1-BJ]

Rules, Yes. number of decks, rarely. With the exception of single deck, I don't think I could name more than 3 differences from. A double deck to 6 deck. Can you?

[@Sithikus]

How fucking far did you stack this deck to know what was going to happen before you started explaining everything? That's my problem

[@cyb6985]

😄

[@A1-BJ]

🤪

[@arghyabiswasabproud8730]

6:58 , Why dealer hits another card??, Its already 16 against 12 , Dealer should win , I guess!

[@A1-BJ]

The dealer has a specific set of rules they play by: they must draw until the reach 17 or higher.

[@arghyabiswasabproud8730]

@@A1-BJ I didn’t know that one, Thank you. I never played any casino games actually, just got some interest about how the things work in Casino, so downloaded a Casino Offline game from play store 🤣, I am less than a beginner in this field 😂

[@jackmorningstar24]

Lol

[@rodneyzurek4900]

Dealer busts a 16 only. 33% of the time NOT most of the time!

[@A1-BJ]

Think of one suit: A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K 8/13 of those will bist the dealer.

[@A1-BJ]

Bust*

[@otaviobarreto6581]

60% of the time 4 = 10 and also bust if hit 6,7,8,9 so 8 cards to bust between all 13 cards =60%

[@jocde3626]

Yea,,to many factors,,how many decks,how many players,how far into the deck,what cards have come out, I play basic strategy For fun,,my only gambling Vice is my 10 dollars a week on lottery,,while the odds are worse,,it’s my choice.. And why show a vid when you setup the deck??? Show a real,world situation and explain.. This approach doesn’t make any sense.. It’s both informative yet confusing..

[@A1-BJ]

@jocde3626 I have TONS of other non-set up games I play through the whole thing. This way, when a weird hand come up, you'll know why in a game.

[@ocjon1965]

Dude . . You dont know basic math . . .dealer showing a 4 is not a majority bust

[@A1-BJ]

It's a little above 40%, true. but that is taking that information alone. When you add in the probabilities of your hand against a dealer's 4, then certain hands are better to win. Did say that as good as I should have in the video, probably not. so my apologies.

[@ocjon1965]

@@A1-BJ no worries , occassionaly i will hit a hard 14 vs a dealer 2 . . chance of busting-46% - chance of dealer making a hand 66% . . they have you by 20 points . . they always have the edge . . .counting or not

[@A1-BJ]

@ocjon1965 weird, I have made a ton of money over time. And the software simulations i use, say I have the edge with counting.

[@ocjon1965]

@@A1-BJ yes, you have to count to have a chance - have to be able to bump up bet 4x . .and have a casino that lets you get away with that . . .other than that - still gambling . . .never forget that