This can't be good...

There were definitely slightly too many tech jobs. Layoffs suck. But things aren't quite as bad as we all think
SOURCES
x.com/gaybearr...
layoffs.fyi/
www.comptia.or...
nces.ed.gov/pr...
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S/O Ph4se0n3 for the awesome edit 🙏

[@helleye311]

Just wanna say, this chart starts at 60 instead of at 0. it's still a massive drop, but it's not 99% as the visuals suggest, more like 60%. I swear it should be illegal to misrepresent data like that.

[@my_yt666]

Also let's keep in mind that these are job postings (demand). It doesn't say anything about the increased number of applicants (supply). The graph in the end should be quite a bit higher than 100 to have the same chances as in pre-covid (let's say ~130). Instead it is at ~70 right now.

[@lemontec]

As aurora said, this is indexed so postings more then doubled after 2020 and then dropped again to baseline

[@svenhaadem]

It says right on the chart index 2020=100. Statistics require a little bit of effort and education from the reader. This is clearly not misrepresentation but a standard way of showing time series.

[@PraiseYeezus]

it's only misrepresentation if you turn your brain off and don't read it

[@P4INKiller]

Did everyone here take a stupid pill and forget good design?

[@morgane3501]

start the bottom of your chart at 0 challenge (impossible)

[@SzaboB33]

Yeah, it seems like the tip had 35x job posting than now, while it's "just" about 4x

[@blazer511]

The chart doesn't need to start at zero, we just have the relative change within that window, which is what is relevant

[@jcc4tube]

@@blazer511 That's not how our predominantly visual brains work (see advertising, etc.).

[@ADAM_______]

The data was not reported pre Covid

[@pierwszywolnynick]

@@blazer511 it doesn't even show the relative change within that window good

[@Malix_Labs]

"AI will take my job" It was, in fact, the fed

[@screamtwice]

100% this, the US government changed the law and now companies don't get a 90% tax return for Developer Salaries anymore, so companies stopped over hiring and started firing, I was victim of that at the beginning of this year.

[@meepk633]

[10 hours of fart sounds - 4k 720i]

[@CheesyAceGameplay]

Top comment

[@MagicAndReason]

People seem to forget that the pandemic kicked every economy in the world on its butt. Supply shocks were EVERYWHERE! Everything ground to a halt, you couldn't find basic products on the shelves, travel vanished. IT WAS AN EPIC DISASTER!! So once a vaccine has been discovered, it made sense for central banks to pump out as much liquidity as possible. And nobody wants to be critical here, but they overdid it. Now, was it far better to overdo it than to underdo it - HELL YES! So we cranked down Covid unemployment. Now we're cranking down price instability. But sadly, that will cause unemployment to rise as hopefully the Fed can get us to a soft landing. Covid was real, people! I worry that I feel I need to remind people that we lost a million Americans! Covid was a more efficient & faster killer of Americans than Nazi Germany & Imperial Japan in WWII. Do the math. It was a horrendous tragedy.

[@morowitch2615]

Fed actually produced jobs and salary increase due to cheap credits

[@dev_taco]

Job security isn’t keeping your job it’s your ability to replace it.

[@JD-vj4go]

At the moment most folks don't have either.

[@gz6x]

My personal anecdote is the position is much more important than your ability in terms of job security.

[@PraiseYeezus]

I've applied to over 1000 jobs so far since I got laid off in Dec. Many interviews, many "we'll move you to the next round, stay tuned" broken promises, and uncountable ghostings. I study a lot. I tweak my resume. I write cover letters for jobs I really want that suit my skillset. I write code, study, write blog posts, mentor new devs on Discord, I try to inject SWE into my veins every single day to keep myself sharp. I try to network but nobody wants to network with someone unemployed who doesn't have big tech on their resume. I'm up at 3am practicing Leetcode again because the anxiety and self hate won't let me sleep. I don't know what direction the industry is going but I do know I'm at my limit and I don't know if I can do this field anymore. It has to get better right?

[@FunctionGermany]

don't do leetcode. make a personal fullstack project with auth and RBAC, hash+salted passwords, and whatever frontend tech you like. those are core concepts to internal enterprise apps and will get you wayyyyy further than leetcode.

[@Aleks-fp1kq]

Maybe you try something else 🤔

[@Android-17]

Keep hitting, you will get it!

[@monterreymxisfun3627]

I'm thankful for "the rule of 55" on 401-Ks. I will just temporarily retire. Wake me when things get back to sanity.

[@jaredsmith5826]

Unless you got laid of from a local company or city/state gov, then consider dropping a tier. If you were FAANG, go Fortune 500, if you were Fortune 500, go small cap. If you were startup... I'm sorry. Startups will be strained until interest rates drop. Try to get a low paying small company or state/local gov job to stay in the game until it turns around.

[@madlep]

This is cyclical. Zoom out to 20 years. It’s up and down and up and down and… It sucks being a junior in these times, especially getting that first break - BUT when it picks up in a year or two, if you’ve got some experience now and stick it out, you’ll be in demand and readily hireable. And if you’ve already got experience and skills, there are still jobs. When you get to senior level, it just means recruiters are only pestering you once a week with roles instead of once a day.

[@lemontec]

It is cyclical but with an even stronger upwards trend. Hiring in tech has grown massively over the past 20 years.

[@fgregerfeaxcwfeffece]

@@lemontec And don't forget the annual: "This time it is over for real, you just don't understand! it is different this time!" I guess having these type of normie loonies who think they are experts just shows how established the field is. It is so big that it has now included the "the end is near"-loonies for decades

[@fgregerfeaxcwfeffece]

@wealthassistant And don't forget the annual: "This time it is over for real, you just don't understand! it is different this time!" I guess having these type of normie l00nies who think they are experts just shows how established the field is. It is so big that it has now included the "the [game over] is near"-l00nies for decades.

[@fgregerfeaxcwfeffece]

yup, hm, getting thruogh the censorship is getting hard.

[@ADAM_______]

No it’s not look at jobs total on fred

[@s3rit661]

In my opinion those layoff are just the result of the companies trying to show infinite growing of money on the chart, eventually it will be over once they realize they are trashing also good dev constantly, is it a bubble? Yes, it's a bubble made by investors

[@useruser-ti1og]

So many of these charts don't have the baseline at 0 but instead are exaggerating changes via having visible range at 40%..56% for instance

[@rankala]

To be fair, the spike still would be pretty high. But yea, starting at 0 is still always better.

[@JohanStrandOne]

I really don't like these kinds of graphics as they ruin my intuition of the data.. (as intended)

[@lemontec]

The fred chart is indexed and it’s not uncommon to cut these off since 100 is the baseline for comparison

[@svenhaadem]

If you read economic time series in almost any country, they are represented as this. With an index normalizing the time series to 100. 0 will be more confusing since the start is not at 0. On the other hand, to make the graph more readable you divide it by the starting value *100 at each time point. You could use 1 as the base line but not 0 (or at least that is harder to). Scaling the graph to include 0 is sometimes a point, but waste a lot of space. Once you know that you always should check the baseline it is not a problem. If the change is not relatively big then including 0 would make it less readable. I don't think this is a problem as long as you remember to check for baseline.

[@100timezcooler]

The “get more money” statement is so insensitive and privlidge. Like we’re not fucking trying. Gfy

[@RealRatchet]

Bootcamps were always just pickaxes sold during a goldrush by companies that need devs to create downwards pressure on wages. Now the market is saturated and they are reaping the rewards.

[@GiveMeSomeMeshuggah]

This hits the nail right on the head

[@nicknorthcutt7680]

You are spot on.

[@nicknorthcutt7680]

You are spot on.

[@nicknorthcutt7680]

It's an endless cycle..

[@AZaqZaqProduction]

Still though I as a developer don't really feel like I have a moral right to try and keep the supply of developers constrained. There is so much more software that people want made and that could be useful than there are people who are qualified to make it.

[@jakubkooooo]

hard times to be a junior developer..

[@Shari_Tejp]

This youtube online programming space is so full of fucking fear mongering, and toxicity. The best decision one can do is just to quit this space all together. Enjoy your job, enjoy programming if you like it, or if you’re like me just do it because it pays good and it’s a decent job to have. enjoy your life, go outside and just fucking do something wholesome with your life. Im honestly sick of watching same titles and videos for the last 3 years, and it’s getting worse…

[@AnEnderNon]

based ngl

[@tylerbenton4495]

I like your take but I think it'd be silly to not acknowledge the fact there has been a steady decline in software engineering jobs and the job market has become a lot more competitive. I remember when people could find a software engineering within 3 months of focusing on the basics. Those days are long gone. You really have to stand out and be creative doing your job search.

[@Shari_Tejp]

@@tylerbenton4495 oh come on bro. There was never a time where you can just learn for 3 months from youtube tutorials and courses and land yourself a good job. Were there people who did it? Yes, but it was not the majority. Im not saying things are perfect now, I’m just saying we all should stop being a part of this “online programming community” because only thing that this community thrives on is fear mongering, toxicity in the form of “you’re not competent enough” and a few memes. That’s it. My point is just to reflect ourselves and see if we actually need to be the part of this space? What good does it bring?

[@tylerbenton4495]

​@@Shari_Tejp That's false. There was indeed a time where one could land a developer job if they went hard on the basics, built a projects, a portfolio site, and consistently applied to jobs, as you've admitted by contradicting yourself. Stating an objective fact isn't fear mongering. The job market is significantly worse than it was a few years back. Also, what you've said sounds like a personal problem. No one is forcing you to watch the video and be part of the online community but the fact still stands that the job market isn't where it was.

[@Shari_Tejp]

@@tylerbenton4495 I did not contradict myself at any point in my answer. So discussing with you will lead to nothing if you can’t stick to the basic text understanding logic. But regardless i appreciate your answer, have a nice one :)

[@Jenkkimie]

Hey Theo. I am a recent graduate from Finland and the job situation is just as bad here as it's in the USA. Filtering out job listings from any job listings to junior jobs, it goes from 129 pages of 30 listing in each listings of jobs to just 9 places total, so out of 3 870 job listings only 9 are for juniors or student traineer positions (~0.23%). That's in the best job listing sites some don't even have a single junior listing at all. It's not good and I know many of my friends from study struggling to find a job or graduate because of the job market situation. Some have even quit the industry and switched, even though they have passion but desperation leads to desperate measures.

[@Su47Goldeneagle]

Hell will freeze when Theo stops using clickbait titles and thumbnails.

[@Sparronator9999]

You can get an extension that replaces clickbait video thumbnails and titles with less clickbait versions (sourced from the community).

[@Sparronator9999]

DeArrow

[@jamonh]

Hell will freeze when people finally understand why he uses clickbait titles and thumbnails and stop complaining about it

[@ChristopherCricketWallace]

Theo didn't make the KZbin algo.... And Theo didn't take the bait for you.

[@Su47Goldeneagle]

​ @Sparronator9999 Thank you very much for the recommendation!

[@kovalas543]

I don't think that only juniors are struggling now. I am a senior developer with 11 years of experience, working remotely for the last six years, and the biggest problem for me is the amount of "fake" job postings and "ghosting" in the middle of the interview process. Many times, I've passed several interview stages with flying colors and still got ghosted, this is so discouraging that I'm looking to change my profession

[@tagKnife]

I was laid off in Q1 2023 after working at the company for 6 years, i have not been able to find a job since. Most of the time I get no response, ive had a few interviewers that didnt end in a job offer, and a alot of interviews that have been a waste of my time, they will ask you to do 5 interviews, build 2 full scale apps, and at the end of it, no job. I look on job boards and there are jobs posted months ago with thousands of applicants and its still up? Either they arent recruiting, or they have put soo many barriers in place that even if you do apply, you will be doing a full time job durring the application and most likly come out at the end without a job still. The tech job market is screwed right now.

[@klauseba]

My advice is don't apply to the jobs that have been re-posted for months. Those are fake adds to advertise the company. The company I work at also posted the job of a team leader multiple months even though we already knew who was gonna get it internally. My 2nd advice is also don't work for free, lol why would you build something for them for free and expect to get hired? That's like me asking a painter to paint my room and after he's done doing it I'm not "hiring" him.

[@navis462]

The software engineering market is screwed right now. Don’t put the tech market as a whole in there

[@navis462]

@Methodo-ny6zrI feel bad for the SWE. At least if qualified it’s not impossible to get a cyber position..

[@krykry606]

"Programmer-man, code an AI for me, so that it can code for me and replace you - permanently" - Big Tech Person.

[@austinedeclan10]

"You got it boss" - Programmer man Sam (Altman)

[@andresarias5303]

The AI this prompt sucks hire a SWE

[@vir2plus]

Nick Land said this last year, iirc

[@gavinlew8273]

World's first fully automated company. AI CEO to AI Workers. Shareholders required.

[@Teddy-dh7uh]

Study accounting. In troubling times, the only jobs left for young people will be accounting, nursing, cybersecurity, and sysadmin. If they don't absolutely need you, they won't hire you. If the company won't fall apart overnight without your presence, you will get laid off. If you don't want to be a white collar professional, the trades are perfectly fine. AI is growing much faster than robotics.

[@Coconinga]

Stop with this AI is gonna replace everything doom posting, its quite possible LLMs have peaked. And the use cases are cases where it won't make you much money

[@Teddy-dh7uh]

@@Coconinga You should prepare for the worst, not hope things will get better. AI or not, the entry level job market is fucked and will be for some time.

[@malcolmn.5222]

​@@Teddy-dh7uh you know based on what research or are you just regurgitating what everyone else is saying?

[@robinsongonzalez5352]

A lot of people are scared that AI will take their jobs. They should be more worried about the nearshore in Latam. The programmers here are becoming more competitive, they're becoming really good at speaking English. Also, Latam fits with the U.S Time Zone, shares the same culture, etc. And you can get them by a 1/3 (even less) of what a senior developer is hired in the U.S. I'm working for a U.S company and I receive 35K per year, which is a good salary for me.

[@notMattGarska]

You're getting kinda ripped off though (as we all are really)

[@chicao4896]

He is not getting ripped off. I live in Brazil and 35k usd is equivalent to roughly 170-180k in our local currency. There aren’t many local companies paying that much around here. We all want to find work outside of our country because it’s the same type of work we do here, but you get payed 5x more. Same with any other country that the local currency’s buying power is way less than the usd. For people in the US and EU for example, you guys can’t find work outside your country and make 5x what you currently make. Your company will happily take an engineer over you that will accept half what you make. And for that engineer he is still getting at the least a competitive salary for what’s available in his country.

[@andresdelagarza1750]

We are already getting teams in Argentina. They are good devs too.

[@blackstratmx]

35k??? wtf I live in Mexico and as a sr dev I don't accept less than 84k a year... don't sell yourself that cheap.

[@markusmachel397]

@@chicao4896 wtf, if he is a Senior engineer he is getting riped off hard. He can make the same in Brazil and if you count the benefits it is even more. Dont accept less than 70k usd...

[@turboballer]

It's been rough. I personally have been on the job hunt for a few years now with no luck. I learn the best when I code something and then have someone smarter than me give me thoughtful advice, but that's difficult when you're on your own. I still have a lot to learn, but I just absolutely love making websites and any kind of software and I love all aspects of it, even the ugly. I'll keep my head high and keep going until I find something, and I hope anyone else who is struggling to get a job does the same. We can do this!

[@Antebios]

I'm in Houston, Texas as a DevOps engineer for 17 years now. I have NEVER lacked for work. In fact, I have to beat the recruiters back with a stick and hide my cell phone number because I kept getting so many recruiter calls.

[@redpillsatori3020]

Yeah, because you have 17 years experience. lol

[@nagyzoli]

Devops is extremely different than programming. This issue is with programming. Devops is very much on the rise.

[@Antebios]

@@nagyzoli True, but it really helps to know how program as a DevOps person. Good thing I know how to program in lots of old and new modern programming languages. In DevOps I constantly have to be up to speed in modern technology.

[@codyrap95]

What a joke of a system we live in! When times are rough, prices, interest rates rise you get laid off to make your life even harder. What's the logic in that? People need help, security and money in desperate times, not in good times ffs. All just to protect imaginary figments of our minds (companies) in the detriment of actual living people. And we still tolerate this. And also your job is less valuable just because there are other people doing it too, not because you are not good at it.

[@gregtaylor9806]

What’s the logic in that? The logic is that there is less money for headcount when loans are more expensive.

[@codyrap95]

@@gregtaylor9806 Technically you are right but the question was more like: what's the logic in having a system that lets this happen? In a loop...

[@daverich3352]

There's an argument for people to be wise, and save money when you can earn for times when you can't earn. Good times won't last forever, and it helps if you live in a way that sees you through the lean years.

[@Remiwi-bp6nw]

Thanks so much for videos like these. It feels so bad when all of my family is constantly yapping about me saying tech has never been better and there are jobs galore. I'm not pessimistic, but it's just unrealistic to expect to be hired as a new grad right now. I know I'm good, at least compared to my peers, but I have no way of demonstrating that right now. It's good to remember that many other new grads are facing the same problem as me and that my family is just wrong about this. And that the problem will get better

[@klauseba]

Just like any other job/sector out there, you compete against other 100+ people for 1 job (which might be a fake job posting due to regulations) and certain markets can be over saturated thus decreasing the value and increasing the requirements. Now you're no longer comparing yourself to your class mates, now you're competing against people from your country or from all over the world who might be older and have more experience etc. Timing, luck, networking, ability to sell yourself (lie) and how likable you are can also play a factor. Getting feedback from senior devs can also help figure out what else you need to improve on to become better than others.

[@javierdaza9155]

if zero's not the start, the truth falls apart

[@Gosu9765]

Sitting on the ground and seeing how understaffed companies are and the consequences of that I doubt this will stay that way. This seems like a weird social experiment to see how much IT sector can be squized and I'm not taking any part in it. I used to enjoy my work and even do free overtime, never again - we kinda did it to ourselves.

[@lunalangton5776]

"there weren't enough engineers" is a lie. they just wanted to pay you less. and they got their wish, and that's why there's a massive oversupply now. use your skills for something else, people. you've got options

[@gruanger]

Yeah, I tell people this. China has millions and millions of unemployed engineers with better educations than those in the West. When they say the U.S. doesn't have enough engineers it is a lie. Basically big companies can hire cheap engineers from China and India. It is pointless to learn engineering as a person in the U.S. because you are too expensive in the global economy. They don't want U.S. engineers, studying it in school almost guarantees you will be worked hard for little gain.

[@melkorbane]

@gruanger This is hysterically wrong. We’ve been told this by morons like you for 40 years now and China and India have still been unable to produce creative problem solvers like the US can. When all the software breaks in a year or two from being created and maintained by $25/hr offshore devs and AI, there will be a hiring boom in the us for people that can fix it. This stuff is cyclical and always has been. The cycle is driven by greedy managers thinking they’re more valuable than the tech workers and trying to replace them with cheap labor. I abandoned real engineering and went into software because of that. Nuclear engineers were paid $50k out of college. Now it’s double because oops we need creative problem solvers.

[@notMattGarska]

I doubt you can get a better education in a country where you can't even study history properly because of the censorship

[@niamhleeson3522]

@@notMattGarska From a quick search: "In terms of conventional academic metrics, China’s education system outperforms that of the United States. A 2019 study of 15-year-olds in each country found that Chinese youth outperform American students in nearly every educational category, with an especially pronounced gap in math."

[@jurassicthunder]

​@@gruangeryes but not every company is looking for remote devs.

[@markusmachel397]

In the next 1-2 years investors will realize that the AI rush doesnt make any money, they will need to reinvest in companies that have real products.

[@SoulExpension]

I think so. If you are waiting, you just want to leverage an AI framework, you're not in it. All of this AI gen subscription we see now is simply funding the real deal in the background... for later. AI is use your data, resource, assets, to make an otherwise difficult decision. A neural network framework for data analysis and dashboard. Pick any real business process, but not the internet scraping AI gen the consumer sees now. Nvidia saw an opportunity because the PC aftermarket is priced out, over-produced, and slumped. This is all testbed and virgin, but if you don't code at the bottom of this, you won't know if there's any payoff in the high carbon footprint. Otherwise, it's just a discretionary hardware sale right now.

[@chaostrottel_hdaufdutube8144]

i dont if there are some national differences but im a german student who just got out of school and especially lokal companies have offered me internships job possibilities without ever having seen my code or anything...

[@markusmachel397]

Germany is quite diferent, almost nobody speaks german and the market isnt also that attractive.

[@bawbsmith]

Man, that "get more money, it's time" comment... Oof I just love the idea that you suggest people start negotiating during a time when job security is a major concern across the industry. It's a great way to put a target on your back when the company starts their next "restructuring" cycle. Not to mention that there's such a wide variability that looking at a median value across the country tells you very little. You could make less than the median and still end up with higher disposable income than someone in SF, after factoring in taxes, housing prices, and cost of living. Wage isn't everything. Lastly, I just love that you looked at a median value and and called it an average. Like I know these are live and unrehearsed, but sometimes I'm left scratching my head at some of the stuff you say.

[@prozacgod]

I can write the code, I have demonstrated great ability to write the code - I have no degree, I've worked 25 years in the industry. And now I'm required to have a degree in order to compete?

[@eltyo340]

Were you applying to big tech?

[@MrBlackspoon]

yes, why would you let a non certified electrician work on home installations?

[@JCel]

​@@MrBlackspoonWhere im from, if you work in a trade for a couple of years, you don't need any extra formal training to get the government certification that you are officially trained to do the job. You need to pass a single test and "that's it". Anyone with 25 years of experience would be able to ace that test with a few weeks of studying. So why not a Dev?

[@gt4032]

@@MrBlackspoon because it's illegal.

[@BM_100]

Most companies say degree + 5 yrs of experience or no degree but need 10+ yrs of experience. Since you have more than 10 yrs you should be fine

[@LjupcheVasilev]

Great analysis on the statistics! My indication of this change is the amount of people that never wanted to be in tech asking me how they can be a developer has gone down in the last couple of years. Like Theo said the supply is matching the demand after a lot of years being the opposite and we're seeing the effect of it.

[@chris7263]

My first thought, immediately upon seeing these graphs, is please zoom out. I want to see how this compares with the past ten years, if this is the tech industry cratering or resetting to a pre-covid equilibrium. You can make graphs say all sorts f extreme things if you zoom in enough....

[@bossmusa9075]

about 4 years developer without a job, do my own projects, not like i dont need a job, but personally it doesnt really concern me anymore, even if programming would be just my hobby. Still good video.

[@diego0ji]

Same, now just hobby

[@LeonBlade]

This is kind of where I think I'm heading sadly. I'd like to get an engineering job again, I just can't seem to find one that fits me or there are so many candidates that end up getting picked over me because of the volume of engineers nowadays.

[@collinslagat3458]

So how do you make money to live?

[@bobkelso5681]

The amount of job openings was never equal to the real open positions count. This is just a culture change on how companies open up job offerings and maintain the candidates. Maybe the actual job count still decreased but your numbers are not a good source to proof that.

[@NanneWielinga]

Yes, in particular, when one company has a real position. There might be five recruitment companies who copy the same position in order to get a referral fee. This messes up with the numbers.

[@klf9161]

I've been working in tech for 20 years. IMO, before tech became trendy, I think there was more consistency in software developers that were decent and had interest in the field. There are so many people drawn to tech by the pay now that range in quality of developer is dramatic. I think there are a lot of people who are in tech now that probably shouldn't be in the career. Tech isn't a career where you can learn a skill for 2 to 4 years and rely on those skills for a 30 year career. You have to be continually learning. If the market gets tighter I think you'll see some of these folks who don't have a genuine interest in tech get pushed into other things.

[@nagyzoli]

Eh.. I have been a PHP programmer for the last 15 years. I still program the way I learnt in University. Only now I got the point where everyone is asking super high tech things like Laravel and kubernetes everywhere.

[@janprazak2240]

This is really bad because in Europe we are usually little bit behind in these job market trends so from your data it seems that the worst could be still ahead of us.

[@drednac]

I am looking for a job since September 2023. I didn't knew what I was going into .. I am not even looking for a work anymore, because it seems that companies are only doing fake interviews to look like they are hiring but they don't hire anybody. I have been even accepted into two companies, they just told me that they don't have work for me at the moment and that they will reach out to me in the future with the right project. Like I have passed the interview successfully, they liked me .. but, cannot hire me at the moment .. WTF??? I have been on dozens of interviews. At the moment I am trying some new ways to make money. It's crazy.

[@aquilafasciata5781]

2020 I was going to college for CS. I would’ve graduated this year. Pretty happy I stopped going before I racked up debt

[@michaelpichardo]

I'm a SWE with 3+ years of experience and graduated from a top 20 school. Have been looking for 8 months now. Can someone hire me? It would help my mom stop thinking I'm a failure

[@blackstratmx]

Your photo looks AI generated, your not real.

[@daniellanciotti8908]

As a junior software engineer with less than one year of experience, it is one of the most challenging things that I've ever come to get a full-time job as a developer. because of the requirements are crazy now and all the companies just want to get full-stack developers so they can save money.

[@LutherDePapier]

"...and you're actually part of communities of people who write code." That has literally become a requirement for employment, and I'm not sure that it should be for developers just to be able to eat from the skills they've acquired. And the worst part is, for example any frontend developer can go on the web and see the amount of work that needs to be done. Amazon does not have a dark mode. There's bugs in UI everywhere that every user encounters every single day that they go on the Internet, some even requiring to reload pages. You can't go on the website on an employer without noticing some bad UI or some poor optimization, which kinda makes you scratch your head as to why they didn't even let you reach the interview.

[@ItsUhMeIbraheem]

Holy shit I've noticed and internalised all these points for such a long time. It's so satisfying to have someone else externalise them

[@JanVerny]

Money. Money is the answer. As much as it's "fun" to engineer solutions to "problems". These companies think about money. Would having a dark mode bring Amazon 10% higher revenue? I'd bet a hefty sum it would make absolutely zero impact on the numbers they care about. For this same reason these multi million dollar business will allocate zero budget to bugfixing, they want engineers to shit out new features, because those have potential to bring in more money. And even if we were to talk about an internal product, where no money changes hands, managers still value new things over stability (as it should always be), so unless something straight up stops working, they will always create new feature requests, but will never care about making it perfect.

[@LutherDePapier]

@@ItsUhMeIbraheem Why thank you. 🫂

[@LutherDePapier]

@@JanVerny And you're 100 % correct. Amazon has all the means in the world to make and maintain a dark mode, but they probably decided that all the investments that are going to be required to make the same user stories they've crafted so well in dark mode (what about pictures, for example) are currently not cost-effective. So the true issue here is that all of the work we see that needs to be done and that could be handled easily by a well-led team of junior engineers, which could kickstart their careers and lead them to become valuable seniors down the line, is just not worth the expense for individual companies in the short term. It could and would be worth it in the long term in terms of nurturing new senior developers, but what guarantee do individual companies have that these seniors would stay and that a company would not have created a senior that would later defect to a competitor? None. This is fucked up. And it just come back down to what Theo alluded to. If you're a junior dev who wants a job, you need to be friends with the person that will give you that job. That has become your best selling point right now.

[@babyboie20]

The layoffs were not from companies who hired people who don't/didn't know how to code. It was mainly from large companies that wanted to sure up their bottom line or wasn't able to predict the future well enough and lost ground/position and hired with that wrong prediction in mind. I don't see many small companies laying folks off because many of them didn't over hire and I notice they have a easier time getting rid of folks who don't meet standards than these big companies. I assume hire slowed down for smaller companies because of a slow down in investor funding but I don't think they were going crazy hiring to start with lol

[@sheriffderek]

A huge number of CS and bootcamp grads shouldn't even be counted. They aren't going to get these jobs anyway.

[@WarriorOfX]

Texas? More like Tech SAAS.

[@nerd3131]

lol

[@AvanaVana]

I just went through a 7 months of unemployment after lack of funding killed my dream job at a friend’s startup. It was rough getting a job again, and I am senior/lead in my position (product designer and front-end or full stack developer in my previous positions, usually at early-stage startups).

[@EzDoesntExist]

Dude your words are so dramatic “terrifying” lol

[@VibronicCow]

amazing video, good to see some balance to the doom. What's funny is I recently moved to Texas with my remote tech job LFG

[@MagicAndReason]

Pet theory from a poopy MBA here: during times of inflation, everyone needs to pull out the dog & pony show to prove that they have pricing power. Industries like energy & housing have inelastic demand, so they can do this unencumbered. Tech companies (like Apple, for instance) are sitting on more cash than god, so they don't need to worry. Part of the *message* of the layoffs in tech in early 2024 was that tech workers would be holding the hot potato of inflation, but would be stuck not being able to pass on their costs. Maybe in a future video I hope there's room to talk about the increase in contract work for techies, but little perm/full time work. Benefits are REAL & a career without them makes one a 2nd class economic citizen (despite how tech is often lauded as being in high demand).

[@unatco6554]

Best comment on this video

[@MagicAndReason]

@@unatco6554 Thanks! I really appreciate the acknowledgement! 😇

[@serge.stecenko]

Theo, thank you so much for these videos, I really appreciate to hear you opinion on these topics, and to be honest, my anxiety level tends to drop afterward. Thank you so much for putting all this work into your content, and please keep it up.

[@dusiubn]

I was never here because of money, i am engineer, I was working in automotive as constructor and was laid off because covid, than I switched to IT and started as a front-end developer, I worked for over 2 years in company than, I did some side projects, work orders, especially in blockchain, 4 years behind me in IT. After two years I lost my job due to lazy people 60% and bad market conditions 40%, now I am looking for a job in two industries and I feel that there is still a chance in IT, the only question is how long to wait and is it worth the wait?

[@pempheromkuka7874]

theo has gotten better these days

[@einnorw]

i just got a new developer job this month :) never been more grateful.

[@jurassicthunder]

you are easily replaceable. never get too comfortable sucking their boots. also never be loyal to corporations. they are not your family.

[@einnorw]

@@jurassicthunder it's a state job with a union protection, they can't just fire me but i understand your sentiment.

[@SuperKOT9595]

congrats!! I'm happy for you! Hope my luck turns around too

[@einnorw]

@@SuperKOT9595 thank you! sending good vibes your way :)

[@SuperKOT9595]

@@einnorw thank you 😊

[@dracsharp]

Also, even the jobs that are posted are not looking to fill a position, but replace to someone cheaper or more experienced.

[@BigManInCanada]

A lot of the jobs have gone overseas as well. Average indian salary for a SWE is about a fourth of their western counterparts. When i seen that a few years ago i immediately switched my skillset to government and military sectors. Seeing the data now, damn glad I did :/

[@codingbike]

In india number of graduates each year is 2 million which is 20x than us

[@t3dotgg]

Went hunting for this number, looks closer to 300k. There are currently 1.2 million students learning CS & IT in India from the numbers I found :)

[@gruanger]

China graduates millions of engineers and has millions unemployed right now, I am not speaking software engineers only but still, U.S. companies don't want U.S. citizens to learn engineering, there are plenty of foreigners to hire right now.

[@shubhsharma19]

Number of graduates ≠ Good number of engineers / developers

[@chhavimanichoubey9437]

@@t3dotgg debunked but yes more population of young people in India so more graduates

[@blazer511]

Maybe we shouldn't keep telling people to do software , there are tons of other fields that actually need people

[@mtd3v]

Secure positions are specialized. "General technology" jobs are boilerplate, and can be automated out. 100% over hiring for BS positions during covid.

[@oscarcharliezulu]

We hired 8 devs just this month so maybe… things are turning around?

[@notMattGarska]

What sector?

[@Sirbikingviking]

+

[@flexdash]

No, they're not lol. Your company hiring 8 devs means absolutely nothing to larger scale

[@MagicAndReason]

@@oscarcharliezulu I'm guessing your management is simply more enlightened than others.

[@blakelmj]

Great! Scale it up and try hiring 8 million now.

[@RasmusFrederiksen169]

It might look scary, but we're still in desperate need of *competent* developers pretty much anywhere, and that's very much unlikely to be changed Having said that, good luck to all the poor sods yet to have their first job

[@tarwin]

US leaning into contract workers is worse than most places in the world because people rely on healthcare provided by employers. For some reason it is worse and more expensive for self employed.

[@StefanHayden]

great video. very smart. I don't know how you can say the layoffs were because the bar for hiring developers was too low. If anything the bar for being a founder or giving out money to companies was too low.

[@prozacgod]

I'm stuck, I lost everything, I'm 20k in the hole. I've been a software dev for 25 years, I had a rough start in the industry - I started young, but here I am, @40 - I can work on any tech, in nearly any field. I haven't even been able to land a single interview. I'm 600+ applications (200+ are linkedin easy apply, so ... do they count?) but like... what am I doing wrong. I was downsized and here I am unable to get anything.

[@armoredchimp]

I'm coming from the other end of the experience spectrum but for you I would suggest maybe trimming some of your experience, the 25 years is probably working against, not for you. Maybe make it seem like you have 10-15 years of experience. Just a thought, I certainly can't get an interview myself either. Good luck

[@TheKaosTux]

On top, the discussion contractor vs. employee is completely different in Europe. Specially in IRL/GB/FR/DE. Here contractor make between 150k-500k (depending on field and skill) and are seen as the experts. Whereas the employee rates for developer cap around 85/90k. There are exceptions, but not many. Even Lead devs with team responsibility cap out around 120-150k. Some CTOs too. From my perspective this is and was always good, because only the best have been contractors. With the shift and the economic problems in the EU more and more ppl from bootcamps (fairly bad idea in Europe) moved into the contractor and employment market. Companies start again looking for prices instead of quality. This damages the industry in Europe. I hope this doesn’t go south as it did in the US where ppl work for hourly rates starting from $10, which is impossible to life on. We should come back to sort out the inexperienced, bring them into employment to grow and learn and make contractors again standing for quality and expertise. Same applies for the US in my opinion, but that will never work again there I guess.

[@adam.foster]

Awesome video that speaks the truth of the situation. As a dev who's contracted for years, I've seen the market change a lot post Covid. Now I'm hiring my own devs and the dedication from candiates to land my roles along with their take that the market is tough, shows this whole new reality of this job market, is very real.

[@jeroenw9853]

The point of the graph at the beginning is to scare people and it seems it succeeded. There is no pre-covid data to compare it to. And the verical axis makes it even more deceiving. A pretty terrible and shady chart

[@ImTheShrey]

Meanwhile tech scene in India is booming with lot of in-flow of new jobs. Within IT the non-services sector, i.e. product & startup scene has gained multifold traction in last 2-3 years. 10 times more unicorns than 5-8 years back.

[@MagicAndReason]

Theo I appreciate the way you are being considerate towards people who are having a tough time right now. I think it's easy for people looking for work to feel hurt by callous or insensitive comments. Everyone gets a turn to suck wind & I again appreciate that you recognize these are real people going through a real rough patch.

[@MrGudmestad]

Great video but a heartbreaking topic. I love the data driven approach and the sources you used.

[@gangstaberry2496]

Thank you... this is the first reasonable video I've seen about this topic in a looooooong time... just subscribed

[@yosihashamen1]

Great video, love the breakdown of actual numbers for comparison-no gut feelings, just statistics.

[@Medievalguy88]

It's because we're in the endgame. Everything is getting shittier because the ruling class is trying to squeeze out every last bit of value before everything crashes and they retreat to their doomsday bunkers.

[@orterves]

Regression towards the mean

[@foley2k2]

Thanks for getting the word out.

[@ProfGillett]

You said it's difficult to know what's going on outside the US, but as an employer I can tell you off-shoring is what's happening Profligate consumer (American) and fiscal (US govt) spending is forcing US businesses to cut expenses by hiring talented, remote developers.

[@SaruhikoFushimi-n4c]

For nearly 7 months I've applied to every job that I was good for, 4 months only country wise, 3 international. In this time I got only 1 interview from other country. Every other company can just say "we found better" or give test without any feedback or anything meaningful and say no. 7 months of constant nothingness, it's not good, It's abysmally bad and the guys that you spoke of "Google hired people to do nothing just that apple won't get them", yeah I was one of them, had 6 months of internship of nothing and now I can't find anything, because half of entry level internships requires active student status. So I just keep building my full-stack application which nobody will use and think myself every day that no matter what I learn and how good code I can make nobody will still not even talk to me.

[@klauseba]

Unfortunately the market is still over saturated. Just look at any job posting. There are hundreds of ppl applying. Even if you would be a good developer, there are 99+ other ones that might have more experience or work for cheaper in another country. That's like going on a dating app and 100 guys competing for 1 girl... you're either the 1st or you won't even get to talk to her because she will be flooded with over choice... she can only pick 1.

[@GoonCity777]

@@klausebasounds like a dream life for a girl as many girls don’t have to work in a job, and the men come to them

[@TheStevenWhiting]

Your taking Indeeds words that its accurate. Some companies don't want to use agencies and when I get them e-mail me, they get blocked so their data might not be accurate.

[@arfeloreed]

Another reason why USA has a dropped of tech jobs is your tech corporations in there are outsourcing your jobs to low wage countries like mine. Recently there is a spike of developer hiring in here from companies abroad.

[@first001]

No one will talk about the massive offshoring and H1Bs, especially influencers like this that need to still shill.

[@hugazo]

I worked remotely for canada three years from latam, i was laid off in january and things have been getting dire by the month, now i'm finishing a three month contract with an us company and you can notice that even with good networks, it's getting difficult to get jobs. I'm considering on moving to another country

[@ahn138]

As a software dev since 10 years I’m very thankful for your message. Don’t panic. But don’t think you can settle. But hey. That’s why I choose this job back then.

[@Bomag]

Market growth and new positions aren't the only source of job opportunities either, another would be people exiting tech roles i.e. retirement, career change, etc.

[@medoubella]

I personally blame the Tiktok "project manager in tech" trend.

[@Fanatic17]

Love your take, as with anything. I think that anyone that was looking into the job market intuitively knew already but seeing this may give more insights on the what and the why

[@papanzi]

I think that many companies are just getting confident that with comming of AI they just don't need developers at all. And sure with AI in the play there will definitely be a recessive trend in developer jobs FOR A TIME. On the other hand which kind of white collar job doesn't have this to a certain degree? There will be a point when CEOs and managers will come to a conclusion that they still need good developers who actually understand the architecture, process and how the code generated by AI works. Ironically, i met someone with 0 technical background that was trying to prove a point that developers are useless now by creating a python command line calculator, that just sounded funny to me and frankly it lowered my IQ by 30-40. Software Engineering is here to stay, it's never too late to learn, it's just going to be different. It was always like this

[@JanVerny]

SWE is definitely here to stay. But it used to be that an average person could make crazy money in IT. I think in 5-10 years, there won't be any space for new average people to join and in 20 years you'll have to be exceptional to keep up. I am also expecting that eventually customers will eventually learn how software works and companies will be able to stop wasting so much manpower. I worked in warehouse automation, man you'd think these billion dollar companies would have the capacity to hire at least one person who knows what a computer is before they sign off on a deal. Alas having more money just means you can make poor decisions for longer.

[@needlebacklessons4950]

The available pool of overseas developers is also increasing much faster than the pool in the US, and firms are finding it much easier to reach those overseas contractors. A lot of these laid off positions will get refilled by offshored labor.

[@papanzi]

@@needlebacklessons4950 That is luckily not the case here EU. I was at a company that occasionally hired programmers from poorer countries for smaller tasks we didn't have capacity for but that's about it. It's always the best if the development team can talk about things in standups. But maybe that's just me

[@xCheddarB0b42x]

The personality traits that make a good computer scientist--curiosity, critical thinking, breaking down problems into components, algorithmic thinking, persistence, pragmatism--these traits will propel the person to exceed in any field or endeavor so long as they are adhered to and there is room for growth. If one senses that there is no room, it's okay to move to a related or un-related field for a spell or even for a career. One of my neighbors started in finance, but now works in a defense contractor's NOC. You are portable. Move those legs!

[@Starkiller942]

I went back to school this year (age 29), ill see it through until the end, no regrets.

[@armoredchimp]

I graduated at 29 in another industry and began learning dev at 32, now 34 with no luck at all so far but I'm nowhere near giving up. It may take me another year or two even if the economy doesn't recover but thankfully I genuinely love learning and building this stuff, it's naturally replacing video games for me which has probably been my greatest addiction. The previous version of myself would have already given up due to the economy, being too old, etc but I've decided that nothing is going to stop me. I have a mostly low-stress job to pay the bills that I will not drop until I find a dev job thankfully.

[@patrickmanacorda5677]

Going back to school in 2024 isn't even a great option because of federal loan rates being 8-9% for graduate school.

[@Starkiller942]

@@patrickmanacorda5677 For me it is lol. I will graduate from a local university with a bachelors and 0 debt.

[@mchisolm0]

Thanks for this. Trying to make sure my classroom reflects these realities and builds a culture where more students do this.

[@robbybankston4238]

Some rural U.S. states have abysmal pay for tech with workers having 5-10 years of experience making less than $60K. Those rural areas don't have a lot of competition so they feel like they can offer meager wages. This is of course for workers who can't or choose not to work remotely of course.

[@walia2069]

Why are you ignoring that the cost of living in those rural areas is drastically lower

[@philadams9254]

Would be interesting to see similar data for the UK and Europe where there haven't really been layoffs and there is still a big shortage of workers.

[@Aleks-fp1kq]

Because you are the outsourcing destination now.

[@webapple1]

uk devs working for less than $80k lol. when i looked at jobs there i scoffed , you can work admin in Australia for more money than a dev in the UK

[@philadams9254]

@@webapple1 You sure you don't mean £80k? Most people I know are in the £90-110k range and they're not anywhere near the top dogs. The UK has a lot of one-man-bands or people doing short term contracts. There is serious serious money involved.

[@webapple1]

@@philadams9254 why am i looking at job postings literally right now in the Uk for £32k , £38k , £42k .... £42k is $80k... on even had a range of £25k - £35k , wtf is that . that was the majority when i was looking. while i don't work in the market , you might be one of those that get paid well and have friends as well who do , but seems a bit delulu to imply that the job postings are saying $80k but actually paying $100+ is normal when literally the first page is splashed with the ranges shown , it took 2 mins to get those numbers not even searching by numbers. I see why people run from the UK , the delusion there is real.

[@Mjbeswick]

@@webapple1 senior developers get paid more than double that, with extra benefits such a private health cover and 20% bonus.

[@Swenthorian]

I disagree that the present/future is bright for good devs. I've been out of work a whole year, but peer reviews repeatedly described me as "the most technically-skilled person on the team" at my last job. I've had one interview in this past year, and it was fake.

[@ItsEverythingElse]

Whenever a chart like that doesn't start at zero on the Y, they are trying to skew the impression.

[@tylorg7971]

Canadian Developers/Engineers don’t really make 6-figures in general. At least not for a good number of years in the industry. In Toronto and Vancouver there are high paying jobs, but the idea that CS/Bootcamp students will graduate and make more than $100K/yr in 1-3yrs, is more of an American thing than anywhere else.

[@carloslfu]

It's still hard to get good engineers.

[@jeffreyblack666]

Just looking at the chart, my first thought would be: COVID kills the hiring rate. Then people see how much people are relying on tech so they massively overhire. Now they have far too many so aren't hiring much. Eventually it will reach a balance.

[@jamonh]

This is a fantastic overview. I've been curious what the underlying numbers are saying, beyond my gut feel. Thanks Theo

[@Verssales]

I work at the same company for almost 6 years now, and from 2022 to 2023 I received a paycut of almost 40% due to some recession of the company, got some of that money back, but not as it was in 2022, hopefully things get better... Or maybe I just go find another job.

[@scottiedoesno]

And this analysis doesn't take into account those of us who became engineers without a formal CS degree. There are dozens of us!!

[@SilverLionApps]

One of your closing statements, "... and you're actually part of communities of people who write code" is something I've struggled with. I've tried participating in participating primarily in subreddits and Discord servers, but its difficult to find a community that really feels like it's helping me *grow*. Maybe it's on me for going in with the wrong mindset or something. Do you have any recommendations for online communities? I would love to join more local/face-to-face communities, but I live in a small town with basically zero tech workforce.

[@malcolmvernon6808]

its nice to see this perspective... but its still pure bleakness every + 100 job applications later lol. At this rate my sass product will start generating money before i ever get a job lol

[@Bryan-zo6ng]

Its because companies are preparing the eventual recession. Which all data shows is happening right now.

[@seventeeen29]

The only takeaway from this is that the world was on fire at the start of COVID and it's still on fire now

[@VictorAug]

One good thing about this is that, probably now layoffs will not be so common, the market is establishing and layoffs will be less and less common until something happen and the market goes crazy again and the cycle repeats.

[@Chill50318]

As a student in Data analytics you’ve given me one more day of hope. It’s hard to be optimistic when it seems like you just missed the wave.