Theory of Change

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The Theory of Change is a starting point to create a Monitoring and Evaluation plan.
The Theory of Change can be thought of as your framework to establish the “where the program is going” question.
It is a good strategy to use when designing an intervention in international development because it will make the project team think through the process of what the project will actually do and how.
A Theory of Change will include a “pathway of change” or a “change framework.” This is a visual representation or map that demonstrates what steps of achievement will lead to next level of achievement.
The tactic in identifying a Theory of Change for the program involves having stakeholders work together on what is called “Backward Mapping”. Backward mapping involves starting with the main issue that the program is attempting to improve or change.
For example: an initiative whose overarching objective is women empowerment. The first item on the map will be greater women empowerment. This ultimate impact result is the foundation to being the planning phase. In order to design the program and it’s monitoring and evaluation plan the team will work backwards and break down how and what steps will need to be taken in order to achieve the ultimate goal of women empowerment. Thinking about a project in this way allows planners to pose the question what must take place or what outcomes must occur before in order to obtain this ultimate goal.
In order to think about the outcomes in this way when planning the theory of change the first step you will take will be to design of an “outcome framework” which visually creates the succession of outcomes necessary to reach the goal.
When thinking through these steps, the team will have to provide “justifications” which will explain the reasoning of why one outcome will be able to follow after another outcome. The Theory of Change approach defines outcomes as “preconditions” Meaning that the outcomes or preconditions are what must exist in order for the next step on the map to be obtained.
So building on the example of women empowerment, a backward map might identify the precondition to women empowerment is the reduction of gender-based violence. A precondition to the elimination of gender-based violence might be providing equal economic opportunities for both men and women.
Within the design of a theory of change, assumptions should also be identified, assumptions are closely related to preconditions. Assumptions are identified as an understanding of what already exists and in is in place, where as a precondition does not exist but will result, hopefully due to the implementation of the program.
A well thought out Theory of Change will encourage greater stakeholder initiative. This process of thinking through an initiative considers the whole picture of a social issue and how the intervention fits into address the given problem. However, a Theory of Change because it looks at the big picture can become a very complicated process and difficult to design.