PAIRED BOARDS: A Common Bluffing Mistake!

[@ThePokerBank]

The GTO solver used in this video is called GTO+, and it's available in a bundle with a complete training course here: redchippoker.com/gto-solver-bundle/

[@divided_and_conquered1854]

Mister Sweeny - It's great to have found your channel. I've been binge-watching, I must confess... Your channel has the right mix between educational material and reviews of your own exploits. I really enjoy it. If I ever get to Orange City, I'd love to join you at a table there - OR, if you ever get to Atlantic City, your chances of finding me at the Borgata poker room playing 1-3 are greater than those of hitting top pair on the flop. hahaha.... Cheers.

[@timelkin838]

My brother. Just a thought but perhaps a video on running it twice.

[@KissMyConverseFool]

does your solver require bandwidth, or does it work offline?

[@jack42011]

really appreciate the understanding that you impart regarding these specific situations. Exactly the stuff that is helping me find more value in my hands whether a fold call or raise.

[@MrAgmoore]

Paired boards are a nightmare to play. Bluffing trips is like setting money on fire when the opponent has it.

[@slow3131]

love the analysis of paired boards, it does come up a lot and can be tough to navigate when you don't have it, when you do have it, or even when you might have the lower of the full houses! helping calculate bluffs is great too, because you can't win long term without bluffing.

[@ThePokerBank]

Cheers slow!

[@mal5206]

That’s great thinking outside of the box to include the promo variance.

[@ThePokerBank]

Thanks Jamal!

[@thierryfallingstar]

excellent!!! Thx James

[@ThePokerBank]

You're very welcome!

[@kevinvia2420]

These types of situations use to cost me a lot as I would back my betting down. But long before GTO and poker vlogs came out I started keeping track of hands, one being paired boards and found I still won about 75% of the time. So now while I do get clobbered from time to time. I don't in the long run. I recently heard the term you can't be afraid of monsters under the bed, so this is how I approach this and flushes, I mix in the player though. It very important. Now gonna watch and enjoy your video. I always wanna know how my thinking is before I see yours. So let me check it out.

[@ThePokerBank]

Cheers Kevin. And a 75% situational WR is lovely =)

[@chanceneck8072]

I was so tempted to shove on the river. But you´re right. Folding is probably smarter in the long run.....

[@jdarov]

If vill is a scared player above their bankroll and will fold a 9 here then this is possibly profitable. I just don't see many players leading out with a 9. What worse hands will call you (maybe A high if you have been SUPER agro) but on the same token getting shoved here with a 9 would be a sick spot. So I see a lot of 1/2 players just go into check call mode. When they lead it looks like trying to get value from a 9 themselves or a sticky over pair.

[@ThePokerBank]

😁

[@chanceneck8072]

@@jdarov Exactly what I thought. I mean, I have done hero calls on double paired boards in the past with A high myself and being right, but it doesn´t happen very often.....

[@jdarov]

@@chanceneck8072 it always seems like double paired boards favor the OOP player too lol I just played a hand yesterday actually. Raised $10 UTG with KK (avg raise size pre). Got called by SB. Board J93. X, bet $14, call Turn 9. X, X River J Villain overbets $75 into $50 Hero..... Throws up and folds 😂 Honestly if they have A high here it's a sick bluff. I'll plug this into GTO+ and see how many hands in my UTG range I can call here before folding is too exploitable. I won't have many 9s and only SOME Js so I think have to call some QQ/KK/AA here some of the time but it's just... Hard you know 😂 Ah poker....such a lovely game

[@chanceneck8072]

@@jdarov Absolutely. I think overpairs are actually gonna be good here more often than not.

[@cennon]

A straight draw over a made full house. That's an easy fold if there's any sizable bet.

[@michaellocker2995]

Not that it makes much difference, but that is a straight-flush draw with an extra $500 high hand promo so the situation is slightly different. Also, I think it is a clear fold given a sizable bet MOST of the time, but a lot of Maniac fish will fire this with Ace high hoping to bet you off a chop, so your straight and flush outs aren't always dead either. Just food for thought.

[@chanceneck8072]

Love the analysis. I agree 100%

[@ThePokerBank]

Cheers Chance!

[@Josh-kr2ne]

Hey SplitSuit! I’m josh , passed by you at orange city Sunday night. Awesome seeing you , even better vid!

[@ThePokerBank]

Nice to meet you Josh, and I'm glad you liked the video!

[@tiltvpip1009]

James is it common in orange city for people to only open 3x? Generally all the live games I play in its 5x or more

[@jdarov]

Right 😂 I usually see like 5x sizes when I'm live it gets pretty crazy. And when someone opens to $6 they almost always get re raised to $30 so pretty sick 3bet sizes too. Just play tighter and in position with hands you can do just fine. I almost ALWAYS call pocket pairs because your calling $30 to win $200 since villains in 1/2 NEVER have the discipline to fold overpairs. I saw one person rake in a $600 pot after a 3 way allin on T93. He had 33 and villains had JJ and KK. (ONE TIME! 😭)

[@tiltvpip1009]

@@jdarov I agree where I’m from usually if someone opens to $6 I treat it as a limp lol

[@davidgeorgecross815]

I just got back from vacation/ playing at Orange City. No, very rare for 3x opening , not sure I ever saw it at 1-2

[@ThePokerBank]

It is not typical, no. But given poker is "monkey see, monkey do", it's not uncommon for a table to change their default OR size based upon a few 3x opens...

[@tiltvpip1009]

@@ThePokerBank I think at the low stakes it’s to your advantage to raise bigger pre, people don’t adjust their calling ranges, they will still call with K 7 suited etc. so might as well get max value from them.

[@breadkat741]

What is the perception to other players when you check in the dark?

[@bertwillhealthadvized3897]

Pocket Aces

[@88mphDrBrown]

That you're a fish

[@ThePokerBank]

That you are OK removing a decision branch from your strategy

[@divided_and_conquered1854]

There's only one situation where I "check dark" at a real live game - it's when we have a multi-way pot with me first to act (OOP) going into the flop. I don't always do it, either - but I use it only occasionally to shake things up a little. All other situations, I wait to act. (James' advice is correct though - you really only remove options from yourself. It's just something I like to do now and again.) Cheers.

[@patrickkirby5079]

You don't factor in that checking has +EV too on the turn. It's not enough that a bet will show a profit, it has to be more than the EV of taking the free card. In this case I think checking is better. Most of the hands we fold out are drawing extremely thin anyway. The chance of drawing into a jackpot is the icing on the cake.

[@pokergeniusordonkey6517]

I would do simple math in this spot. Six players to the flop means our opponents have a total of TEN cards. There is an extremely high probability that at least one opponent has either a nine (trips) or a ten (top pair) and we're blocking both straight and flush draws. I would probably be thinking about my opponents and trying to figure out how to get two cheap cards. Will these opponents miss a bet with a monster? Who is tricky, who bets too small, who bets too big, who is trappy, who is likely to be a check raiser?

[@SuperBounty1234]

What is the gto software he is using?

[@ThePokerBank]

GTO+. You can grab a bundle with the software + a complete training course here: redchippoker.com/gto-solver-bundle/

[@thevig9507]

You can’t evaluate bluff profitability based solely on the likelihood of getting folds - your math is as if to assume you can’t win at showdown. If your queen high or flush or straight ends up winning after he checks down worse even a small fraction of the time it’s almost definitely better to check the turn than bet pot given your assumptions of his range / call range. Unless you also think he’s bluffing perfectly optimally and you’ll be forced to fold the queen high any time he has worse, which of course he isn’t.

[@glenterris3980]

I think the range and EV work here is very well done, the river spot is an great example putting this all together to see how profitable or costly our shove can be. With that said, I think a few concepts are missing from the discussion, so starting with our c bet, I think we end up with such a high board interaction here that it really allows us to profitably c bet, since we will be allowed so many options on the turn, what's unique about our hand, is that many turn cards improve our actual hand. I think though discussing, does c betting our range here 6 ways oop make sense? We don't have a lot of TX or 9X in our range, our JJ+ can for sure continue, but how does it respond on later streets when called, what about our pairs 66-88, probably want to start as a check, and then we have some nut flush draws in range, how best to navigate these, do we c bet now, how happy are we to make the nut flush on paired boards when faced with aggression? Most importantly, I think multiway oop, we need to proceed with a lot of caution here in most cases unless we flop a monster that does not block our opponents value hands or a massive combo draw like in this case. Ex H A5s on 556 two tone Where V can have over pairs 77-TT/87/fd Would be an example of a value hand we can continue on. One last point that I think needed to be discussed here is our blocker affect in this hand. Our hand takes away many combos of draws from our opponent, which weights them to defending with more made hands in their range. Other than that though, great job James! Amazing content always! Cheers

[@jdarov]

Hey James Thank you again for your incredible content! I'm interested in what you think about calling vs different sizes if the river came am 8 or a K or a diamond? Do you think effectively a str8 is the same as a flush here given the action (either vill has 9 or T or doesn't?) These are spots I feel like I get scared and end up sometimes losing some value and sometimes saving money but i just never raise here expecting to get called by worst. Are you in just call mode with str8s and flushes or is it even a profitable call against a tighter player here ?

[@ThePokerBank]

Cheers Joshua! I don't think the average $1/$2 player is trying to thin value bet with a straight or flush on a double paired river, so all of our straights/flushes are just bluff catchers imo.

[@bubblewhip382]

I really prefer check raising my straight flush draws on the flop because you are in a weird polarized situation where you beat equity of most strong hands that probability wise it would be profitable getting it all in on anything less than a full house. But because that equity isn't realized it is the most subject to wide changes between the turn and river. If it checks through you aren't in that bad of a shape because your equity is heavily realized on the turn card for cheap where you can confidently extract value or bail on the hand depending on whether it improved. Check raising also scares off most of the competing draws that beat you like ace high flushes or top end straights, leaving most of your competition as made hands that you might probably beat. Paired boards to complicate the situation with the possibilities of full houses. I'd have to do the breakdown to see if getting value out of 9x with a straight flush draw is actually break even in the situation, but as played at the turn and this specific hand I can agree with how the fold went. But I believe straight flush draws are best played as a true polarized semi-bluff where you either want to plush hard on the flop to get folds and implied odds against strong hands, or you want to get to the river as cheaply as possible to realize the equity.

[@ThePokerBank]

I'm totally fine with checking the flop

[@ticenits1926]

From a purely exploitative standpoint exclusive to live play, I think the biggest problem with trying to barrel on medium paired boards like this is that you can't represent any part of it because your typical live player would never think you would have open raised with a 10 or a 9 in your hand. Live players pretty much assume everybody has the same pre-flop hand selection. Because they would only raise with Ace King or better they assume you would too, so it's just implausible to them that you could ever have a hand like Jack 10 from under the gun. Personally I find trying to bluff literally any paired board to be absolute suicide against 100% of the population

[@masstransitrecords7865]

you didnt give the solver a 3rd?

[@ThePokerBank]

A 3rd what?

[@MM-wp6tw]

LOVE your channel! Truth be told, I have to keep googling a fair amount of the terminology u use cause either I haven't been playing poker long enough or I'm just stupid, lol. I guess 1 thing I don't get is, the software u reference, I'm assuming the ranges and what the software says to do (not that u have it to reference during live play) is just a small factor when playing? You mainly just use the math if u can't GUESS the dynamics of the opponents?? I'm asking. I'm trying to get better at cards, but there's just so many ridiculous dynamics (small blind/big blind amounts, how deep the pockets r of the players, if they're playing aggressively bcuz it's a short night, etc etc)

[@haslettworm1644]

Enjoy your videos, although much of the analysis is over my head. I am curious as to why you have shortened the a. k. a. acronym to a. k. when introducing yourself.

[@ThePokerBank]

Keep with the videos and eventually things will sink in nicely =) And the 'aka' thing would just be slurring my words, not an intentional thing

[@halfcabmelanchol]

Hey James, Generally love the content. I am very worried that I can't trust much of your analysis anymore though. When you looked at the hand in Flopzilla (and probably in GTO+ as well), you didnt narrow ranges from previous actions. You Cbet a 5 WAY FLOP and got what should be a tighter calling range (that didnt raise). Then you assume villian leads out with 100 of his range on the river with this bet size as well? And count the folding combos off of his preflop range? Whats going on man? Am I off base or are these huge problems with your analysis? I've definitely found cool spots where it's +EV to blow nits off an over pair on a double paired board, but this is such a -EV river raise here. Any 9 never folds the river after the checked back turn, and you beat all counterfietted pairs and missed draws except AXdd here - if it even stabs the river here.

[@ThePokerBank]

The range in FZ (and also GTO+) are narrowed from the preflop range after villain check/calls the flop. Notice the range only includes some under pairs, a good chunk of slowplayed Tx, paired 9x hands, and draws. I did make the assumption that villain likely has a single-bet sizing strategy on the river, but again, I didn't include previously folded combos in that betting range.

[@jonathantolan3503]

But checking in the dark doesn't necessarily mean they would check 100% of their range - with different hole cards they might change their behaviour

[@qwertz12345654321]

What is this logic? Solver suggest to check 100% of the time against a weak capped range and you are suggesting to bet against a super nutted range?

[@ThePokerBank]

Where did the solver suggest checking 100% of the time?

[@qwertz12345654321]

@@ThePokerBankon the turn

[@ThePokerBank]

@@qwertz12345654321 that is AFTER a 1% checking range from villain on the turn (which villain deviated from by checking dark and thus checking with a 100% range). TLDR: that 100% checking suggestion is useless

[@qwertz12345654321]

That's exactly the kind of logic I criticized, don't know what else I expected

[@michaellocker2995]

On the note of how frequent paired boards are I think it's also notable that much like heaters and card dead runs paired boards can also happen in streaks! In my session last night (coincidental video timing LOL) I was so stunned at how often the board paired/double paired so I reviewed my history after the fact and found that the board paired or double paired 47/105 hands. I was only marginally surprised but it felt like every board and made this tense spot a bit painful. Luckily, I have been well trained as a Red Chip Member and still did quite well in the session. That said, I do want to ask what inspired the 1/2 Pot-ish C-Bet size in a 6-way pot? I know there is some debate on this subject but smaller sizing is so commonly recommended here that I want your take on it.

[@ThePokerBank]

A little smaller is fine here (something like $15), and I probably over-estimated the size of the pot in real-time

[@CMichael2276]

Oh cool OC that's my closest poker room

[@ThePokerBank]

Be sure to say 'hi' if you see me there =)

[@DoubleBassX2]

Yo I play in Daytona at the sister-casino. Maybe I could buy you lunch sometime?

[@ThePokerBank]

I recently moved out of FL, but I appreciate the offer Andrew!

[@davidgeorgecross815]

Analysis is ok but cmon this is 1/2 at one of the loosest places I've played. IMO GTO has negligible benefit on non-thinking opponents. Orange City was fun to play at on my vacation but ouch on the $8 rake! Would make your blogs way more interesting/ real if you blogged the higher stakes games there 🙂

[@terriblebhop]

James is making this particular 1/2 vlog because there aren’t many out there and most players play 1/2. Hrs talked about it early in this series. Good content but I agree. Hard to follow GTO on a live 1/2 game. I typically throw most concepts out the window and just bet for max value and make almost 0 hero calls. Easy game to exploit

[@ralphb2608]

I appreciate the $1/2 and $2/5 content, there is so little of this available. There is plenty of higher stake content available.

[@ThePokerBank]

GTO is a baseline, not the thing to strive to mimic perfectly against normal opponents. And $2/$5 is coming in the future (I've already started recording content), but there are a few more $1/$2 sessions first =)

[@ralphb2608]

@@ThePokerBank I just graduated from $1/2 to $2/5, and there is less difference than I initially assumed. A few more skilled players, but the majority of the players are making the same $1/2 mistakes. Strange but true. Also James, it appears that you tell people GTO is a baseline till the cows come home, but many aren't listening. Do not get discouraged, keep pressing.

[@ThePokerBank]

Nice job moving up Ralph!

[@Yecksun]

mr sweeney can i have my flopzilla please i beg

[@gernotg8480]

Dear James. Please give me a chance and let me work for you.

[@tiltvpip1009]

Not sure begging is the best way to get a job. What value can you bring?

[@Simon-xi8tb]

you are talking way to much. I think you could get to the point in 5 min video. This ist he reason you only have 102k subs, yozu would have like 500k or more subs if you instead made 5min or shorter videos.

[@troychampion]

you put me to sleep trying to watch this video, your monotonous voice knocked me out trying to learn what you had to say, you have valuable information, but you present it in a format that I can not tolerate. After I woke up I tried again to listen to it and wrote this comment and unsub'd. I hope you are able to find a way to talk in a variable tone, provide larger graphics i can actually see (i watched this on a 55" tv used as a monitor in full screen and still found some of your graphics fuzzy part of the time) I hope you can use this comment to help you grow your base, you put out a lot of good content, in what I find to be a bad way.

[@chrisfetner332]

Way overthinking. Headach.

[@zachdelong1039]

I see these gto graphs 📉 that all the pros be showing and I’m sure it’s a great tool for folks with a math mind but man have they absolutely ruined live poker. The game used to be exciting to watch now it’s about as boring as watching golf or watching paint dry. I no longer give people 5 or 10 minutes to make decisions. I count to 120 in my head and if you haven’t decided I ask for a clock. I totally understand there are moments when time is needed on a big decision but every single street of every single hand you play is not a big decision moment. You get 120 seconds and then we moving on. I simply don’t have time in my life to wait on people trying to remember these graphs 📈 in they’re head in real time.

[@ThePokerBank]

I totally agree on the tanking issue, but I don't think GTO charts are the basis of additional tankers...