There's trouble brewing with interest rates and inflation

[@jonhdoe629]

Hi peter love your videos would be interested to see a video on your predictions for the most likely changes in october budget thanks

[@philipcovell3272]

My bank just cut their savings rates last week, you have to shop around.

[@paulmoore120]

Great presentation.Thanks.

[@user-Tortured-soul]

❤Thank you for your help❤

[@Phucket24]

Sir, you produce excellent content. I truly enjoy your opinion

[@alistairrobinson3865]

Rates won’t be going anywhere quickly I expect, but also depends on how high tax increases are in October, because that would also be restrictive/ disinflationary

[@sdy30]

I’m expecting inflation to rise. It’s part of the toolkit the Chancellor will use to lower the national debt whilst saying things like ‘we’ll stay the course and get inflation under control’! We also need economic growth to help lower that national debt, but I don’t see how that growth is going to occur given the higher taxes Labour are going to introduce. Stagnation and inflation seem like the most likely outcome for the next few years. All rather depressing.

[@conversationofmoney]

I agree on the economic growth, hard to see where it's going to come from. Time will tell

[@DS-cf1zc]

I agree, but you are missing a key point - we will have it shoved down our throats that it is all a blame game on the previous government - but some of the proposed taxation is choice, and choices about impacting on us poor peasants.

[@ExoticDoll-ct3ud]

Gr8 & realistic video. I believe every year will get harder and 2025. Esp for the under 30s. I have only 1 child who I would like to help out somehow. Maybe sell my home and pass the lump sum down to him, then I live in basic flat.

[@philiphall4805]

few points I would like to make , the metrics used to calculate inflation do not represent prices people pay , Free gear Kier could if he wanted call the BOE and tell them to drop rates but that would risk his 22 billion black hole narrative being trashed , and then there is modern monetary theory which calls for taxation not interest rates to control inflation , Labour are far far behind on this and not leading from the front , increase VAT , tax football clubs , Amazon and big drug companies , cruise ships , private jets , private boats , you know , all the stuff the vast majority cannot afford

[@davideyres955]

So you are going to increase the tax on things to make things cost less. Got it!

[@philiphall4805]

@@davideyres955 no VAT on food , lots on a 55 inch tv

[@philiphall4805]

@@davideyres955 no VAT on food , lots on a 55 inch TV

[@DavidWillis-s8k]

Quantitive easing is over. Base rate will eventually drop to ~4%, which I believe was the historical average prior to 2008 and QE.

[@Christmascancelled]

I’m expecting interest rate rises to be above 20% just like it was with Harold Wilson soon.

[@Micfri300]

@@Christmascancelled inflation goes up when wages go up and more people are buying items. That is not going to happen.

[@staceygrove5976]

Bank Rate never got anywhere near that under Wilson. Highest it's been in the post-war era was 17% when Thatcher was PM in 1980.

[@derek3535]

Financial repression is the policy to pay for out of control government spending, we'll always lose out to inflation by design. Look for best fixed rates and try to mitigate as best you can.

[@mwhi475]

Interest rates, held!! That's great news and it means my savings accounts will not be robbed for the time being. Everything crossed that rates will start to go up again. We savers have been robbed for long enough. Time to celebrate. 😊

[@alistairrobinson3865]

Do you not find it embarrassing being so thrilled about higher interest rates when it severely hurts millions of people?

[@Simonpocarroll]

@@alistairrobinson3865it does seem insensitive, but conversely for 15 or so years , borrowers lapped up the cheap money at the expense of retirees who saw inflation erode the value of their savings with almost zero return.

[@sjt627]

You're thick

[@FreaksSpeaks]

​@@alistairrobinson3865 why millions are hurting by high ir? over stretched?

[@andy_4264]

@@alistairrobinson3865 it’s only embarrassing from a perspective of demonstrating a lack of financial education. Robbing someone but convincing them it’s ok is the greatest triumph of the banking industry.

[@squibys2262]

Probably so they can allow the inevitable extortion via rpi/cpi+ increases in every bill

[@steamhammer2k]

I thought i was the only person that thinks inflation will increase soon. We have baked inflation in with huge pay rises to the public sector so that`s a given in my eyes. That will translate to maintaining the base rate at what many say are high rates these days. I feel that the base rate is very low compared to what i have known. The US have bottled it and that`s good for us as with get cheap oil and this rolls onto helping keep prices down here in the UK. I am looking forward to getting 2 dollars the the pound and super cheap holidays to the US and multiple cruise ship holidays each year.

[@makbulhusenumerji7546]

@steamhammer2k They will put up duty to at what it was before They cut it last time by at least 5p to the litre; no way We are going to get cheap Oil.

[@SoloSi2024]

Incredible, huge increases in mortgage rates, next they'll be after you for more inheritance tax and capital gains. Surely it should be one or the other. PS, Mr Starmer, would you like my house?

[@Draggonny]

They're coming for your house one way or another. Either you lose it for care costs or your family loses it to taxes. They'll pretend it's freeing up housing stock for young families but we all know it's freeing the housing stock for corporate landlords.

[@matthewspry4217]

It's the 800k mortgage owners that the boe is hoping to catch that's why they are waiting

[@DS-cf1zc]

I think there is a toxic element brewing - if taxes go up - peoples spending power will decline, and some of those taxes - like fuel duty will add to food, clothing, post, deliveries etc... so therefore will drop on those of us normal folk. I expect my take home pay to drop by £110 - £150 per month based on the tax rises being discussed - and yes that is direct take home, before council tax catches up. Those elements will drive up costs of good, while our spending power will decline - the funny bit is that wont grow the economy, as I have turned off the taps in terms of fun days out, eating out, a beer here and there - even a coffee at work - the majority are switched off. I can see inflation spike post October - interest rates will hold in to the new year if that happens. And Xmas will be a miserly affair if you ask me.

[@westendwatch]

US stock market is flying

[@williamling3056]

Inflation was always going to rise. That's why Sunak went for a July GE. They were pretending it was under control. It wasn't.

[@basicfilmblog]

Tories may be deplorable but they arent stupid. They knew they were on the way out and things wernt gonna get better so let labour come in earlier and take the blame for their cockups.

[@philipcovell3272]

I do not think Sunak was as clever as that.

[@basicfilmblog]

@@philipcovell3272 thats exactly how ifs playing out. I think most peolle see that tbf so im sure sunak did.

[@disneytakeshugedix7463]

Currency 💵 bubbles 🫧 implosion ! Look 👀 at the Japanese 🇯🇵 Yen 💴, the first G7 currency 💵 to collapse ! Sigh 😮‍💨

[@wicky525]

Better rates to be had than 4.65% 🤷🏼‍♂️

[@conversationofmoney]

It will take sometime to get there. Maybe this time next year

[@jonnyboy4340]

Giving large public sector pay rises is going to increase inflation; similarly any daft pay per mile will increase inflation.. Current Chancellor is out of her depth completely.

[@butlerpa100]

Inflation fuelled by high wage awards to public sector

[@malcolmlane-ley2044]

I think we can be pretty certain the direction of travel for lending rates is downwards otherwise banks would not be offering attractive mortgage rates on 5 year deals; they will make an attractive return on the back half of the agreement. Naturally I would like to see cheap money available for everyone, particularly young families and I sometimes wonder how I managed to get through the early 90's with my loan at 15.5%, perhaps it was the average salary to lower average house price ratio that made it possible?

[@sjt627]

Yes, that's exactly what ir was

[@TheTotalPackage-qo5gx]

@@malcolmlane-ley2044 Great comment and just to add a lot of people didn’t get through it in the early nineties.

[@ncooper8438]

The government will be pressuring the boe to cut rates to zero again asap, I'm sure of it.

[@williamwilliams186]

No

[@davideyres955]

Yep they will because they want to build 1.5 million houses to demonstrate growth. No way to sell those unless people borrow. So once again Labour will create artificial growth backed with debt. That went well in 2008 so we’ll end up in another collapse and this time we don’t have the ability to borrow to bail out the banks. We also won’t because the government passed the bail in law which gives the banks the ability to rob your savings. They will and then you be begging for some sort of government run currency and low and behold you’ll all want Central Bank digital currencies. Then you have no freedom. It’s all been planned my friends. There’s nothing you can do about it.

[@davidalf5159]

An interest rate of around 3.5-4.0 is about average. Energy costs for me, are the underlying cause of inflationary pressure and aren’t going away anytime soon, esp. as the government is committed to its plan for 50GW of electricity from wind by 2030, sufficient to power all U.K. homes. This level investment is the correct thing to do, to weane us off from other more volatile sources. But I’m not convinced on the other aim of this Govt for 1.5m new homes. Tax rises are likely.