Things I (Do) Worry About: A Post-Germany Europe || Peter Zeihan

[@BewareOfTheKraut]

Yeah, as a German I’m also worried about a post-Germany.

[@metois1]

You mean Deutsche Post?

[@hah-vj7hc]

@@metois1 He meant Deutsche Bahn, duh

[@holgerj.440]

Flieger, grüß mir die Sonne... The whole video makes no sense. And most of the comments are also post-fact. 😅 First of all: the only thing that currently is holding back Germany's economy is our wrong understanding of debt. The retiring boomers won't create a dent as much as our rotting infrastructure and unaddressed potentials in the workforce due to lack of child care and education. Second, and same problem, the false understanding of debt creates a rising problem for countries in Europe's South that are part of the Euro currency zone. Savings to death! And don't let me even get startet with what is going to happen if temperatures climb even more each year. Desertification is Europe's next big thing.

[@Dreagostini]

@@holgerj.440 In addition: ignoring the crucial problem of privatising the gains of productivity. The money and the work done are there. But the surplus value generated end up on the shores of companies above local level importance and land lords with multiple housing units at their disposal. Those people don't spend their money, they "invest" it either in buying up more of the market shre, especialy in the housing market, or dabble in stock market shenanigans. IF they "invest" the money and not just hoard it.

[@HR-yd5ib]

Frankly, not having to listen anymore to feminist whining 24/7 and eco-Nazis trying to safe the world, almost makes it worth it that Muslims will take over this absurd country in the foreseeable future.

[@My-Nickel]

I haven't seen a color combination like that since Mork and Mindy got canceled.

[@komalley35]

Nanu nanu

[@johnparnell9488]

❤

[@bsmithhammer]

Badump-tsh!

[@redcars72]

under rated comment

[@butopiatoo]

Yeah, but Peter is from Iowa not Ork so .....

[@weisthor0815]

A german proverb says: "Erstens kommt es anders, und zweitens als man denkt", which basically means that nobody knows what is going to happen, and whatever you expect it will come different.

[@marioarguello6989]

I know what will happen, Germans will blame somebody other than themselves, and invade other countries.

[@Tnowion]

yeah but.. that's a proverb. not a scientific analysis.

[@weisthor0815]

@@Tnowion proverbs are there for a reason

[@marioarguello6989]

There is a Polish proverb: "There are two kinds of Germans, dummies and idiots".

[@Tahur00]

​@@weisthor0815 that's too much for him to process.

[@DynAmisch69]

One thing is not true in Germany: the retirees don’t stop paying taxes since retirement if treated as fully taxable income 🤦‍♀️ my dad pays 41% taxes on his retirement

[@ttynorttyl]

Because pension contributions aren't taxed before they go into the pot, they're taxed on the way out.

[@JoelLinus]

Technically you are right, but in reality, retirement doesn't bring in any more money from the free market, which is key to a growing economy.

[@vonBlankenburgLP]

That's what we call a Milchmädchenrechnung in German. You are technically right, but in the end it's just a game of and with numbers. If you would drop those taxes and lower the pensions by the same amount, nothing would change.

[@hexamine666]

here's a lifehack for you: stop viewing your gross income (specifically the part of it that you lose to taxes) as money you actually own. it's not, and it never was yours to begin with. you should get into the habit of converting gross into net subconsciously whenever you see your paycheck. why pretend like you earn 5k when it's not 5k after taxes, but closer to 3k or something. it's almost like every month you're surprised you don't actually get 5k. at the end of the day, it's an imaginary number, it has no real meaning to your day to day life. you see, I could for instance say that you actually earn 10k instead of 5k, but the other 5k of those 10k go to santa claus before they're written on your paycheck. you see where this is going? it's the same situation with with those 2k you lose to taxes. I will never understand how people keep making a fuss about this all the time. it would be a different story if you were actively argueing against the concept of taxation but that's a whole different can of worms (quick spoiler: we need taxes).

[@Halox86]

I highl doubt that you dad pays 41% tax only on his retirement. Max retirement payment at the moment is ~40k/a. With 40k your tax is ~7,5k or ~19%. Probably you included health care.

[@JoergPetersson]

I don't know who said that (Niel Bohr?)), but it's nice and fits in with many of Peter Zeihan's prophecies - whom I really appreciate, by the way: "Predictions are particularly difficult, especially when they concern the future"

[@Art-is-craft]

Prediction? Germany has not been having children at a replacement rate for 50 years in the next decade the cost of that comes into effect. There is going to be escaping it.

[@brianb9166]

It was Niel Bohr. Yogi said, “The Future Ain't What it Used to Be”, which fits better when listening to Zeihan. 😂

[@edgepixel8467]

Whatever Zeihan is saying has only a tenuous connection with what really happens in the world. How many decades he's been predicting a China collapse already? You would think eventually his viewers would wake up.

[@TomTomicMic]

"What's upbooboo" "Nothing Yogi" (Bear)!?!

[@tobynesnah554]

Hahaga

[@pierresaelen3097]

As a Belgian I can only agree: economically we are a part of the greater German manufacturing base

[@goenzoy712]

Yes Austria is well but it's not in decline generally speaking

[@TomTomicMic]

It will be if it doesn't go nuclear for base load!?!

[@KoenDC]

As a Belgian whenever I tell other Belgians this, they start spouting the same magical sovereignty and unicorns that the Brexiteers rode out on, thinking they're immune. Tragic how the workers from an export-driven western trade economy don't seem to realize how vulnerable such a system is to international price shocks, and instead insist on tired separatist or anti-muslim cliches.

[@butopiatoo]

@@KoenDC I have an online buddy that is in Belgium. Not married, no kids. "retired" whatever that means, and is producing nothing. Sounds like a dead economy to me. Guy is in his early 60''s worked for a milk company.

[@Cotswolds1913]

@@KoenDC anti-muslim cliches??? What do muslims have to do with German manufacturing??

[@bjarnetungland4544]

The thing with Peter he basically things everyone is screwed (except America) and there is no way anyone gets out of it (except America again)

[@matthewgaudet8001]

he says france will be ok and he says if argentina does the right changes they have a chance as well.

[@bobkoure]

Peter's big on N. America because of the productive ag land proximate to navigable waterways - but he keeps going on about the Jones Act having invalidated that. He also looks at demographic 'pyramids' - and Frances seems to be fine, so it might be a matter of France picking up the reins...

[@michaelpsellos2560]

Well he's also big on France and Turkey

[@tedcrilly46]

And the US is the only country doing maritime anti-piracy in Peters Book.

[@TomTomicMic]

​@@bobkoure France talks the talk but does not walk the walk, Germany has effectively bank rolled the EU (...and has had the biggest say) but both Germany and France have committed some serious errors in charge of the EU, energy dependency was the biggest one, not supporting Ukraine early enough in the war with Russia is another, Germany has caught up mostly but aid from France to Ukraine languishes in 14th place!??

[@Rioebroangling1]

Just flipped a burger, opened up a brew and now listening to Peter dooming the world. What a time to be alive!

[@Samuil-iq6eb]

No one will be doomed lol, 😂 you're that naive?

[@kel8026]

Hope you skulled back the beer, the vid was only 3 mins

[@Rioebroangling1]

@@kel8026 It only takes a minute

[@FancyJones]

As a German I must admit, the demographic decline is real. The compensation with migrants is still a challenge. The energy policy the Las 20 years in general has been ideological in every direction, which harms us a lot. Still I believe in German rationality and mentality to solve all these issues. Although German pessimism is another thing that worries me here, as most people are not that optimistic and this can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy..

[@LRRPFco52]

Abortion as a standard policy after two world wars that cost Germany her prime age males really cavitated the demographic structure. Importing Turks and Middle Easterners will never bring Germany back.

[@liepsan]

As a Dutchy I do believe you will turn things around, albeit it might take a few years? After the war Germany was obliterated, but 20 years later it became an economic superpower. Or if it all fails, come here we need skilled laborers anyway. 😉

[@stofjes4204]

It's not a self-fulfilling prophecy. There is no way Germany can compete with India, China or the USA. Impossible.

[@gab363]

It trust Germans, they will figure it out.👍

[@Mantis_Toboggan_TrashMan]

I feel a major variable isn't being accounted for, and that's the fifth industrial revolution. We are living through the fifth industrial revolution, and according to experts, it'll be a larger leap than even the previous revolutions. Of course, it won't happen over night, but it'll change everything. Technology doesn't advance at a linear rate; it's exponential. It's exciting; automation is a very good thing.

[@tysonkampbjj]

One of the ways to listen to PZ is to recognize some of the mildly dramatic use of terms like "collapse" and "failure". I think re: this video, you can substitue "decline" or "contract" for "fail". Collapse and failure would be more appropriate terms if this region was managing things along the lines of the current Chinese style, which they are not. These countries collect data and look at it, and people don't disappear for saying what they think. It makes it possible to have a decline rather than a collapse or failure.

[@Iskelderon]

That's the fun part, there's usually a kernel of truth, but then there comes the Chicken Little routine on top he does to get attention. The trick is to get the useful bits out of it and get a laugh out of what's left.

[@oliveoil7642]

Very reasonable deduction. Hyperbole gets attention though😂🤣

[@J_X999]

Everyone knows the Chinese aren't going to collapse either. Only die hard Zeihan fans are still believing that.

[@American-Motors-Corporation]

Well I don't think it is dramatic we literally are staring down this shit not just Germany but basically the entire Western world we can't pay our bills we're running up mass amounts of debt our jobs have become jokes especially with all the inflation housing is a problem whether it's rent or buy it's a problem that no one can fucking solve because they don't have any money that of course takes away the huge incentive to actually go to work and put up with whatever. But on the other hand a lot of people have found themselves to be more comfortable in a fucking tent because they don't have people tell him what to do all day it's a trade-off I get it there's people out there that's there on the street not by choice which I would say is the majority but there's also a fair amount of them that have done what they could to make the best of a bad situation. We're basically headed down the path of third world and it's not just the United States but you have to realize that as United States goes down it's basically going to take a lot of nations with it in many respects now that's sad there are nations that yes they will feel the pain at first but once they realize they're no longer under the thumb of the western world basically backed by the United States military's bank then they would be able to do whatever it is they would like that would be good for themselves so in many cases if the US fell it would take time but a lot of places would actually be able to bounce back no they wouldn't be living like we do or we prefer to live perhaps but some places may actually see a step up in quality of life over time because their nation would not be held down by a central bank somewhere that is connected to basically the international bank the western banking system. In other words monetary policy could be made with more of their own nations and people in mind not some one size fits all we've got to do international trade bullshit.

[@GK-qc5ry]

I'm fine with predictions but with AI and robotics coming I'm not sure anything will be predictable going forward if it really is the next industrial revolution.

[@dister72]

You still need consumers for goods and services

[@Tony-om5kr]

@@dister72 and a steady supply of high end IC chips from Taiwan (and hopefully more to come from Japan, S. Korea, & USA)

[@bsmithhammer]

Remember when people fantasized that the internet would lead to a "world without borders?" Or conversely, that it would destroy society as we know it? There is far too much hand-wringing going on over AI presently. And frankly, the term "AI" is being applied to all sorts of things that don't actually qualify as "artificial intelligence."

[@dixonhill1108]

You first need to make the machine that you're planning to automate. So you have to find a manufacturer who wants to make machines for you. You can't call anyone in Europe they got no gas. Can't call anyone in China their work force is collapsing. You have to call someone in Dallas Texas and he'll inform you he got more than enough work coming in thanks to what is going on in Germany. Some companies are literally deautomating, as they're buying old outdated machines/cnc's etc because they're swamped with business and the Germans are constantly delaying their orders for modern equipment. It's probably a lot worst than we imagine, because no company wants to admit their up against such a harsh limit(especially because the Russians will use it as propaganda). To automate you need surplus labor and to invest in new machinery you need a promise that energy costs stay cheap, otherwise it's cheaper to rely on people.

[@RexZShadow]

Too many people with no understanding of AI dream about what it could do. Sure it will get there someday but not any time soon. Remember the insane self driving car craze few years back? Ya dead silence since lol.

[@ernesthale2471]

Thanks!

[@martinfalkenberg64]

1. The German labor force is projected to fall from 44 to 36 million by 2050 = 18% decline. Assuming stable low fertility and modest immigration. A very strong decline, but not a collapse. 2. When it comes to import/export markets, it makes more sense to look at the European market as a whole. The EU and partners will face challenges, but are together less reliant on foreign trade and will have an easier time keeping/gaining access.

[@thunderstorm6630]

and we have losts of refugees from Ukraine and elsewhere who will keep up the consumption and will provide workforce

[@j.langer5949]

Germans will cease to exist as a nation if current immigration trends do not radically change. That is a bigger problem than economy.

[@deaffatalbruno]

Peter has a point here, but as a typical american he exaggerates by huge amount.

[@calc1657]

The EU is only slightly less reliant on exports than is China.

[@wisenber]

The EU is regulating German industrial products out of existence while ending reliable energy sources. That, and a loss of 20% of a workforce AND low fertility has never happened. A loss of 20% from a war followed by high fertility has happened, but not a self-inflicted population decline.

[@davidsawyer1599]

Highly accurate and professional to paraphrase. I did some work as an electrician for a German company here in the states. It was an automated manufacturing facility. My background was Healthcare electrical work. Highly accurate and professional. Healthcare does not play. The Germans critiqued the living daylights out of that job. It was some of my best work. No changes or revisions. An oddity. I surmised that they were unfamiliar with American electrical systems. The day we energized the facility. Absolutely everything ran without flaw. No call backs months down the road. Germans are very good at what they do. However they are not alone in that aspect.

[@Sternburg]

Don't take it to heart if a German criticizes any and everything. That's just how we are. That's how we get good at things

[@noahway13]

I worry about a post-Germany, Germany.

[@thunderstorm6630]

what is this supposed to be?

[@troymash8109]

​@@thunderstorm6630You can't be serious..... it's obvious what that means and he's correct.

[@speedrunner9907]

@@troymash8109your fear of the other will create the very monster you want to prevent.

[@AlbertBormant]

@@troymash8109 Absolutely. Just look at London.

[@taylorc2542]

@@speedrunner9907 The other can't run their own country so why would they be able to run Germany? Also, mass conversion isn't going to go over well.

[@SirCharles12357]

This is an "As Is" assumption based on the current technology and organization. Fortunately humans are creative and adaptable. It will be interesting to see how we overcome these new challenges. Peter does a fantastic job at alerting us of these trends, allowing us time to start thinking and creating options to avoid negative consequences.

[@douglasgish4809]

Agreed. I really enjoy Zeihan's analysis, but it seems like he sometimes underestimates the resilience of systems. I do wonder if there could be a certain critical mass of dysfunction that could finally collapse even a sort of antifragile system. Divining that critical mass is obviously the tricky part for a futurist.

[@bryguy306]

@@douglasgish4809 Please give an example of a macro-level antifragile system. Because that’s the matter at hand. There are great examples of antifragile systems as represented by single companies or industries… but the systems as a whole is what is under threat. Example: If global shipping fails, then otherwise antifragile systems such as the airline industry cannot transport manufacturing materials and products… and will crumble. Shipping is a macro-level system, yet it is INCREDIBLY fragile. And it is upon this fragile system that all other “antifragile” examples rely… See the problem?

[@holger_p]

@@bryguy306 No, that's just the riskavoiding approach. Things can be fragile, as long as they don't break. The problem is only to deal with insecurity. Human body is fragile. Electricity is dangerous and fatal - but we learned to deal with it.

[@bryguy306]

@@holger_p Right, “so long as they don’t break.” I feel better already.

[@Miata822]

A little daily note from PZ always lifts my mood and has me looking forward to a bright new day.

[@jamieruehl5198]

I'm asking with curiosity, not criticism: When you look back over the last 20 years, how "correct" are you with your predictions? I do enjoy my morning lead-up to my desk-work because of the primer you provide. Please keep doing what you are doing!!

[@thermite547]

For the most part he’s alright, not the best when it comes to China, but he’s not completely wrong.

[@Art-is-craft]

@@thermite547 How is he not the best with China. They are now in financial turmoil and are going to have series of crises.

[@thermite547]

@@Art-is-craft He says it’s the end of China. Like the complete collapse and destruction of the country. While China is pretty fucked, it’s not late Qing dynasty fucked. I suggest looking into it more too. I mean, he’s pretty damn reliable, just sometimes his conclusion are a tad overblown.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

His record is awful. He's right about a few obvious things. According to him, the Russian economy collapsed about a year ago and Russia's about to break up. According to him, China's about to lose half its population to starvation. despite being the world's largest manufacturing power sharing a land border with a new ally, one of the world's biggest food producers. According to him, China has backstabbed Russia and is using Russian weakness to invade Siberia. etc. etc.

[@waynemasters8673]

😂 Do you ask people you voted for the same question?

[@Jou0708]

Feel that you are right, which frightens me. Regards from Germany

[@metois1]

Weniger fühlen, mehr Fakten. Schlechte Nachrichten verkaufen sich einfach besser.

[@Api_Kelenken]

In the Railway Station in Pasing (quite a central and crowded one in Munich) the escalator broke down around late October, last year. They managed to fix it around late April, this year...

[@platoplombo15]

But Pete, Germany has welcomed so many diverse future engineers and scientists, surely they will reinvigorate the German economy.

[@alegro4046]

yea sunflowerseeds and switchblades are selling like sliced bread here in germany. those markets are booming and gonna be the new backbone of the german economy. Oh and ofc cheap perfume, i forgot how much our new engineers love cheap perfume.

[@GUITARTIME2024]

​@alegro4046 don't forget the ubiquitous black jackets they wear as they roam in packs.

[@TheNinj47]

​@@alegro4046 the real players invest in convenience store furnishing and barber chairs

[@CactusGirl-x7f]

Where are the results from this migration? New companies? New products? New cars that have better quality than already declining German auto industry?

[@LaFonteCheVi]

Great was to create internal angst and conflict.

[@gavriloprincip1477]

Fact: Merkel did a "Blair" on Germany, and then promptly "retired".

[@paulnscheidt]

Yes, she did an incredible amount of damage. When she said " wir schaffen das" she really meant "ihr schafft das und ich geh jetzt in Urlaub. Viel Spaß!".

[@HansBerger-m3d]

@@paulnscheidt aber es reicht nicht. Wir brauchen mehr migranten, wenn wir kein armes altersheim werden wollen. Hört euch doch dieses video mal an, schafsköppe!

[@wacky3314]

Yes she just destroyed their economy but shutting down 17 nuclear power plants, made their economy dependent on Russia, destroyed german army and invited millions of unqualified people from totally different cultures. How could that go wrong?

[@HansBerger-m3d]

@@wacky3314 The trolls hate her.

[@xXAlmdudlerXx]

​@@wacky3314Well she's responsible for the refugee non sense. But you cant blame her for everything. She doesnt decide everything. That's why government is always a coalition.

[@Skylla54]

German here, "ehh, yeah we figure it out ^ ^ " As a Software Engineer I see it more positive, 1st less supply, more demand, good for me, personally, 2nd I think in this century we hit full automation in most of the sectors. Germany will be one of the bigger players as long we continue hold our security position, because war is the worst for buisness, technology, growth, etc. At least thats my view on tings, lets see, will be fun 😄

[@CactusGirl-x7f]

It’s not good anyway. Germany is on the decline

[@Dieterdde]

If everything is fully automated, then most workers aren't needed anymore. So they become unemployed and without income. But who will buy the products and services by these nearly fully automated businesses then, if there are no consumers left with disposable income ?

[@Skylla54]

@@Dieterdde Correct thats how it currently works. Retirees are getting a income from their own reserves and from the people(state). Sounds obvious but try to explain this concept someone from 100 years ago. In 100 years a bunch of things will change. Not certain in witch direction, lets hope for the best. I wanted to say. Consumers with disposable income is argument for me but not for kids or retirees.

[@nexor7809]

i dont think german technology is as advanced as lets say american or japanese/korean to allow full automation

[@alexpidgeon2169]

I think what's fascinatingly different, when comparing historic incidences of this occuring, is how a more culturally and economically interconnected Europe MAY be able to absorb these sorts of demographic changes. Looking back, European nations (particularly continental ones) have tended to 'wander' into their neighbour's backyards looking for what ever resource (people or otherwise) they required. Whereas now, I think you're more likely to see a pivoting of internal power centres. Which fits with how bullish Peter is on France's ascendency. Looks likely they'll just replace the Germans as the 'core' of Europe? Yes, Germany looks set to decline in stature, but current structures suggest the building blocks will simply realign, rather than collapse.

[@NLJeffEU]

"Particularly continental ones" Lmao, never heard of the bri'ish empire i guess 😂😂

[@MyAnalyser]

Exactly Zeihans predictions never take into account the resilience and ability to adapt to changing environments. Countries like the Netherlands will simply look for new markets as they always have. Furthermore declining birth rates will be a fact but may be offset by immigration, robotization and Artificial Intelligence. We might need to adapt systems and ways of working, but our nations have existed for over a thousand of years exactly because we often have.

[@george2113]

​@@NLJeffEUwe're quite familiar with UK invasion of the world.

[@alexpidgeon2169]

@@NLJeffEU Note the term 'neighbour's backyard' - Britain's focus, even today, has been less focused on intertwining with continental affairs and more focused on global trade (whether rightly or wrongly). Of course, Britain 'wandered' into a lot of people's backyards but landgrabs tended not to be on the European continent.

[@calc1657]

France can't carry Europe.

[@BladeRunner21577]

Its hysterical listening to him saying America kept the shipping lanes open when they clearly have no ability to keep the Red Sea open to shipping.

[@astroganov]

They can. They just don't want

[@BladeRunner21577]

@@astroganov No they cant, otherwise they would because its far more costly to have them closed.

[@astroganov]

@@BladeRunner21577 the US don't lose anything if Red sea is closed. It's Europe who loses. The US intentionally makes Europe decline. And keeping Red sea to be dangerous is a part of the plan

[@looserocket1256]

How on earth is your Sound so good behind the sea, 🌊 it’s 1000% noise.

[@finley8633]

I think AI has been used to isolate the vocals, either during editing or by his recording device. You can sometimes hear his voice go weird particularly when the waves crash onto the rocks.

[@Vmurmur]

Change is inevitable. Doesn't mean it's bad. Humans are good at replacing systems for better systems, mostly because they have to.

[@SkyGlitchGalaxy]

If you say so Mao Zedong. What can go wrong. 😂

[@AirB-101]

ABSOLUTELY! I'm taking the liberty to repost my comment on your tread of you don't mind: "From Europe: Let's take this with a grain of salt shall we? Mr. Zeihan is doing a "3 body problem" short-term conclusion to a 100-years "maybe" scenario... My father's Grandpa and your father's Grandpa where also saying the same on October 29th, 1929 after the crash! My father (a Euro-communist at heart) sipping his expensive white wine on Friday evenings, was also explaining to me the same back on October 19th, 1987 (Black Monday)... You see, Liberalism is about efficiancies found in the last expected place. Then again, call me an optimist..."

[@Vmurmur]

@@SkyGlitchGalaxy Low and behold, the Automation of the World. The principle is to free people from the mundane, repetitive tasks that machines already perform better and more efficiently so that we can focus our labor on the sophisticated creative challenges. There are concerns that automation will replace jobs in some industries; however, it can also create new jobs and steer people towards other opportunities.

[@Art-is-craft]

@@Vmurmur How does automation buy products.

[@Flintlockon]

@@AirB-101You make a lot of sense. A few decades ago there was massive uproar concerning food security and how the planet earth was incapable of supporting billions of humans. Then we got synthetic fertalizer. The Germans came up with that i think . . .

[@weerawanchantanavanich5518]

Peter, EVERYONE who has bet against Germany since Charlemagne s partition has ALWAYS LOST. Simple.

[@tiergeist2639]

germany is lost unfortunately. the en....y has won

[@calc1657]

Europe will just become relatively poorer, like Japan? Japan seems to be doing ok, though.

[@scottstephens-gm3vm]

Japan is relatively poorer. Their GDP has not increased for 30 years. On my visit last year, once out of Tokyo, some of the other city infrastructure is starting to look dilapidated.

[@michaelmaroney1660]

The Japanese saw their problems coming and prepped for them as best as they could. Nobody in the EU did, much less Germany l.

[@derpherp7432]

@@scottstephens-gm3vm America is the richest country in the world and you could say the same once you get out the big cities though

[@DieFlabbergast]

@@scottstephens-gm3vm Really? You visit once a year or so? To random locations? I live here, and have done for decades. New homes and commercial buildings are going up all over the place. Parts of the Tokyo suburbs appear to have a VERY vigorous population of young couples with children (including my son and his wife). I suspect the childbirth statistics are skewed. Wages remain stagnant and prices are going up, but the standard of living is still high. Few people here are seriously worried. You underestimate the Japanese if you think they can't solve their problems: they have solved MUCH worse in the past.

[@LoneWolf-wp9dn]

the japanese are slowly dying... one industry at a time and one service at a time

[@matthewhuszarik4173]

World shipping will not fail. It will decline as production that is more efficiently done locally is moved more local, but there is considerable high value manufacturing that will be done remotely most efficiently that will continue to be shipped.

[@bobkoure]

Agreed that 'fail' is probably too strong a word, but at the Americans get out of the business of protecting Bluewater freight (already a done deal; the US navy has shifted from numerous cruiser-sized vessels that could do this task globally to carrier groups which cannot) it's going to get more precarious, which means more expensive (ships can't run at most fuel efficient speeds, potential losses to piracy / privateering) and less important to continental economies.

[@matthewhuszarik4173]

@@bobkoure The numbers of US large combatants has not significantly changed in the last forty years it has fluctuated between 70-100 Cruisers and Destroyers. The use of large surface combatants has also not changed they still escort carrier groups as they have done since WW2 as well as operate independently. At the same time the amounts of world piracy has sharply declined so the need for policing has significantly dropped. Modern large combatants are also much larger and more capable than their predecessors as well. The latest flight Arleighy Burke class destroyers displace more than Ticonderoga class cruisers and are more functional. The US presently has 88 large surface combatants, Cruisers and Destroyers even if you allocate four for every carrier task force that still leaves half of them available for other duties. This is pure propaganda with absolutely no basis in fact. The US along with its allies will continue to guarantee freedom of navigation for the foreseeable future. As they are presently doing in the Red Sea. I am not disagreeing that shipping will decline, it just won’t be because of a lack of freedom of navigation. Shipping will decline as more nations pull manufacturing out of China and move it to more friendly and cost efficient locations. The US is presently in the long term process of on shoring all strategic manufacturing. Nixon’s great experiment of bringing China into the Democratic nations of the world has now been recognized as a failure. Merkel’s experiment to bring Russia into the Democratic nations of the world has also failed. No matter now much incentive the Western world gives China or Russia they are intent on remaining authoritarian regimes. The Western world will now start treating China and Russia more like North Korea. The carrot approach has failed so now they will get the stick.

[@fly463]

​@@matthewhuszarik4173 the pig ate the carrot & farted on Nixon's ideas 😂 Let's see what happens in the future

[@ScottMarquardt-s7u]

Decline maybe, Collapse unlikely.

[@Armenian-abrank]

That’s what I think is the main problem we face in Europe… apart from the first large scale war on Europe since WW2 which has the potential for escalation and at the same time most of our politicians do not inform the European population about the risk level we face… it would be a perfect script for a satire if it were not real 😅

[@metois1]

Tell me more about the risk we face? My biggest fear is the rise of right wing parties.

[@hah-vj7hc]

Also ich habe auch mal so gedacht wie du. Was ist seitdem passiert, dass ich anders denke? 1. Ich bin zum Ist-Lahm konvertiert ... und dann wieder dekonvertiert, weil ich die Schriften tatsächlich lesen, und die Radikalen tatsächlich authentisch erleben konnte. 2. Ich wurde mkit LAUFENDEM Mietvertrag (ohne Rückstände oder sonstige Verschulden) obdachlos, nur weil ich mich nicht habe impfen lassen. 3. Ich habe Mitschnitte gesehen von Reden aus der NS Zeit. "Liebe Genossinen und Genossen, wir von der nationalsozialistischen Bewegung werden das Kapital bekämpfen und die Frauenrechte verbessern.", hat der Goebbels gesagt. Interessant, dass er Kapitalismus einfach "Kapital" nennt... 4. Ich habe vom SWR finanziert Journalismus studiert und gelernt, dass die Medien heutzutage nicht mehr neutral sind, sondern eine Meinung bewusst verbreiten soll. Ich lasse jetzt noch mindestens 20 andere Punkte aus, das passt weder in einen Kommentar, noch in die Aufmerksamkeitsspanne des normalen KZbinnutzers. Naja, eines noch: Laut einer Umfrage in der Romeo, einem Schwulenmagazin, ist die AfD deren Partei, die sie wählen werden. Alice Weidels lesbische Lebenspartnerin ist übrigens eine dunkelhäutige Ausländerin. (Die wird sie ja vielleicht doch noch abschieben, oder die ist nur eine Marionette. Und Maaßens ausländische Frau auch) Meine lesbische Cousine auf jeden Fall, ist jetzt nicht so unbedingt ein Fan von der Ampel... hmm, warum eigentlich nicht? Ist sie etwa nicht Teril der LGBTQ Community???? Aber ganz ehrlich, wählen Sie halt die Grünen oder deren Konsorten. Ich habe sowieso alle Hoffnung in meine Zukunft verloren. @@metois1

[@hah-vj7hc]

@@metois1 Eines ist mMn. sicher: Wir werden sehr bald auf einmal Angst demselben haben.

[@metois1]

@@hah-vj7hc "vor dem selben"? Meinungen sind Meinungen. MMn wird uns irgendwann ein asteorid alle töten.

[@SmackheadGaming]

Is this before or after Europeans have to flee Europe?

[@chrimbus71]

Europeans will not need to flee is they just accept islam

[@michaelogrady1002]

Islam represents 4.9% of urope's population. I'd have far more concern with the rise of far right extremists who are echoing the racist rhetoric of their Facist forebears from who they draw their inspiration.

[@Alsacien]

@@chrimbus71 Muslims represent a small minority of the population in Europe and they're leaving Islam at a significant rate. The impact of the European culture on the Muslims who live in Europe is far greater than the opposite. Even with their higher fertility rate, it would still take a huge amount of time for Muslims to replace white Europeans. Europe's countryside is overwhelmingly populated by white Europeans, concentrations of Muslims are only visible in larger cities and usually in the poorer areas of said cities. This is the usual fear mongering by elements of the far right. Europe is increasingly atheist to a degree that many Americans fail to grasp and that goes for all the people born and educated on European soil, regardless of their skin color.

[@dingus6317]

@@chrimbus71No one wants islam that’s why even the muslims flee islamic countries

[@carlc.4714]

... and learn Arabic. 😂

[@aurelian2012ify]

Thanks! Peter, you said. We have never had an economic model for this level of population decline. In fact we do. From the Bronze age collapse, to the end of the Roman empire, to the Great Plague, to "discovery" of the new world followed by a complete population collapse in the Western Hemisphere, to even post WW2 Soviet Union, to the current collapse in China with its western Chinese ethnic population. All population collapses result in slavery. The shortest being the enslavement of German POWs by the soviets for 10 years post WW2, but the rest resulting in multigenerational chattel slavery. Why or why not are we heading towards slavery, and if we are, who is going to be enslaved. BTW, all these examples start out as short term indentured servitude, and with the incompetent 2nd generation of owners, end up becoming chattel slavery. Diocletian's "temporary measures" became permanent under less capable rulers.

[@Renato.Stiefenhofer.747driver]

Germany will collapse within the next three years. One year later the Euro and the EU will be history. That's the agenda. I have explained all of this in a book, back in 2022. The msm tried hard to cancel it. The book is in german language, and I am not german. As a fmr Airforce One Commander (UAE) and private jet jockey I had the privilege to "hang out" with many VVIP's. I was listening very carefully. The title of the book? Google my name.

[@martinduris5292]

I am curious about the Swiss economy and predictions. Could their system be a template?

[@chrimbus71]

You only need so many tax havens storing corrupt money for the rich.

[@Art-is-craft]

Swiss economy has been jointed to the EU for too long.

[@retired_USAF]

After having lived there for years, I have no worries about Germany. They are resilient and have a wonderful education system my son used.

[@IamaCosmonaut]

The problem isn't that the system sucks, but that there aren't enough young people to keep the system operating.

[@DrinkyMcBeer]

In order to fix their demographics issue, they will need more immigration. Unless they're targeting school age children to migrate to germany, their good schools may not account for much.

[@topsuperseven7910]

A wonderful education system doesn't seem to make a difference in terms of what social revolutions, good or bad, come and go. In the early 1900s, Germany was often called THE academic capital of the world. By the 1930s Germans were among the best and most educated people on earth. Japan was easily touted as the most wonderful and perfected education system in all of East Asia. Some insisted on praising Russia's system, though considered very strict and entrenched in the religious boarding school systems the were producing solid graduates like Joseph Stalin. A wonderful education system does not, in itself, seem to change social upheavals.

[@joehowe9532]

The German education system has been in decline for a number of years and the consistently lower and lower test scores show that. Educators and politicians have expressed concern over this. In addition, there is a critical shortage of teachers in Germany to the tune of 10 to 12,000.

[@More_Row]

What's so wonderful about it?

[@_endless_road_1413]

I worked in the oil and gas industry for years. And found Russian engineers to be top notch. I would not count on their oil and gas to go offline any time soon.

[@paullangford8179]

It's not the engineers that are the issue, but the guys who operate and repair things.

[@ivancho5854]

I don't think that there are enough of them, they're old and Russian companies are extraordinarily corrupt - it's a gangster economy. Any modern plant, like a compressor or even a large valve is Western and try getting them serviced or replaced now. Also even the Russians are appalled by Chinese equipment which could substitute. Yeah, Russian oil and gas is slowly going to disappear. They're already starting to import refined products from Belarus. Beyond the Urals is safe from Ukrainian attacks (for now), but the Trans-Siberian Railway is already running at capacity. Russia is in a very bad strategic situation IMHO. All the best.

[@klaasvakie]

Couldn't agree more! and guess where the future import labour market is in eastern Europe. German IP is flooding in!!🇷🇺🥃

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

With a far smaller population than the USA, Russia trains more engineers. Peter Zeihan has many ridiculous narratives, that Russia doesn't train engineers is one of them. He's basically gas lighting.

[@givemeabreak8784]

All the smart Orcs left, but again what is russia making?🤔🤔. Beside the gas and oil they make 🤔🤔 ooh China make everything. And China wants it that way...

[@Faustrecht2010]

Dear Peter, you are worried. 5000 kilometers away, living in a country self sufficient in every imaginable way, while i'm an 56 year old german ...to old and not enough money to leave this madhouse. See it like this, you are the radio operator on the Carpathia. You are listening the disaster unfolding .. and probably will see those drifting in the water. I'm one of the firemen deep iin the belly of the ship.

[@metois1]

Was ist den mit dem ganzen Geld passiert? Ich würde mal die Welt nicht so schwarz malen. Ich glaub in deiner Lebenzeit wird der große Untergang Deutschlands noch ausbleiben.

[@hah-vj7hc]

In einer deutscheren Zeit hättest du wohl Dichter oder Denker werden können, bzw. Geld damit verdienen. Ich möchte mal aussprechen, was du in einer Parrallel-alles-ist-gut-Realität öfter hören solltest: Danke schön für deine Arbeit und du hast dir die saftige Rente verdient. Genieße dein Eigenheim und wenn du mal vergisst, die Terrassentür zu schließen, keine Sorge haha, Kriminalität gibts ja eh nicht.

[@hah-vj7hc]

Oder kurz gesagt: Wenn die 90er nicht geendet hätten.

[@metois1]

@@hah-vj7hc Ich gehe mal davon aus das ich gemeint bin (aus irgendeinem Grund ist mein Kommentar verschwunden/gelöscht worden). Ich bin der Meinung, das man sich sachlich mit Problemen auseinander setzt und nicht gleich jedem Untergangspropheten in die Arme springt.

[@hiiambarney4489]

​@@hah-vj7hc Die 90iger waren schon verseucht. Alles unter Gymnasium in NRW hatte erhebliche Migraten-die-sich-nie-integrieren-werden-oder-je-wollen-anteile

[@johnh.watson5087]

It's your boyyy Peter Zeihan from yet another breathtaking landscape

[@aloispoth9859]

I think we’ll be fine thanks for your concern though

[@CherieHunton]

We had 2 world wars bc of problems in the German economy. The world is rightfully concerned.

[@jimsomers8915]

There is that old saying that the point of NATO is to keep the USA in, the Russians out and the Germans down. Well it looks like Peter has fully understood the assignment. They discounted the Germans in the 30's also Peter

[@givemeabreak8784]

Germany is Europe, dude. Unfortunately madam Merkel invited a bunch of "guests" which are still eating/parting and refusing to leave or pay the bills.

[@andrezcabara2774]

Sounds very racist. Merkel did the right thing. I doubt that you're part of the work force that keeps the German economy running.

[@dbgoingforit]

Where do you see Switzerland in that equation?

[@hiiambarney4489]

As always: Neutral.

[@driggo912]

As a German I don't worry about that points you mentioned. What I worry about is illegal migration and the upcoming demograpihcal change in my country, especially the Islam. I can live with an economically weaker Germany. But not with a Germany in which there are no longer any Germans, but almost only Muslims. Not just Germany, in this case I mean all of Europe.

[@rubenhayk5514]

Germany will be fine ,it's full of doctors and engineers.

[@xcmarathonisti3892]

Germans are enjoying what they vote for. 😂 I have no mercy.

[@darriusdeburgh7333]

And fun boys, 😂 Simpsons ref

[@JT-rx1eo]

Lol. Talk about head in the sand.

[@Dankschon]

And in Latin America there are a lot of gated communities being formed by white immigrants who segregate themselves from the rest of the local population, but not just that, they also buy all the big industries and treat the locals like crap, but it's okay when whites do it, so you don't see it on the news

[@Dankschon]

And no this is no hearsay as I have witnessed it with my own eyes everything I just typed down

[@currawong60911368]

People are living longer, many elect to work longer. Some places are more accommodating or even encouraging seniors to punch on in the work force.

[@MLM68]

Yes, some do electro work longer. But most are forced to for financial reasons.

[@Dave.O]

Keep in mind that most white collar workers can easily work longer but many blue collar workers, especially those doing manual labor will not be healthy enough to work longer. Even white collar workers often have problems finding another job if they have been laid off. Also don't forget that it is white collar workers who are living much longer. The lifespan of blue collar workers has increased much less and unskilled workers almost not at all.

[@amyIde-z5w]

I saw a story the other day from the economist that said the Italy is going to replace Germany as the economic powerhouse of the EU Does this sound remotely correct? What exactly does Italy manufacture on scale?

[@ivancho5854]

I don't have high hopes for Italy. 😞

[@jimgraham6722]

Italy is a great tourist destination.

[@thefirstdutchorderfdo2916]

Yes the economy has risen faster in Italy than Germany but look at the how that got funded. It got funded by debt. Italy debt to GDP (136%) is more than 2x the debt of Germany (60%). So that's a flimsy basis for the long term.

[@amyIde-z5w]

@@thefirstdutchorderfdo2916 you can always count on the BBC for some propaganda. In America our propaganda comes in the form of PBS.

[@nachtschatt3n]

Don’t tell me you have never bought Italian noodles

[@bunnystrasse]

I worry about an Islamic Germany

[@xcmarathonisti3892]

But it's what Germans have voted for. Enjoy it. 🙂

[@mda990]

I worry about Nazi Germany 2.0

[@carlc.4714]

الله أكبر! 😂

[@gabbar51ngh]

Wouldn't be the first time Europeans submitted to a foreign abrahamic faith. First Christianity and now Islam.

[@oberleutnant4013]

Germany is controlled by the chosen people. Muslims are just a tool.

[@709_JJ82]

I wish Peter would talk about the Wind farm project in Newfoundland that is using wind energy to produce hydrogen ammonia that is being sold to Germany.

[@marshall1068]

nice edit work

[@Sven_Bunkus]

I wouldn’t worry about Germany. Since the industrialisation in the 1850s, Germany had a ton of crisis and came out always stronger 🙂

[@sheldoniusRex]

They've never faced having more African and Turkish boys than German boys before.

[@jense.6920]

yes but we got 2 WW.... so after destroy everything we had we needed to rebuild. now our industry leave the country.

[@Sven_Bunkus]

@@sheldoniusRex Germany has always been a mix of people, even before Germany existed. I’m German living in Berlin but my grandparents come from former Yugoslavia… I have a lot of friends that are not German or have different migration history.

[@Bayard1503]

@@sheldoniusRex Europe has always had huge waves of migration coming in... eventually all of them were assimilated. Why should a strong culture and civilization worry about people coming in?

[@JustRandomPerson]

Not really, every time they get weaker. Still good economy, but weaker than it was and without previous prospects.

[@weerawanchantanavanich5518]

Robotisation, AI, etc will compensate labor force decrease in Japan and Germany.

[@astroganov]

Haha

[@dapengu777]

Well, the population decline is really bad, but on the other hand, many German manufacturers are just automating more and more, as an example, my company has built a new, fully automated construction site that still requires the same number of employees, but produces 3x more than the old, only semi-automated production facility.

[@dennett9]

Peter use of the word Collapse, needs more clarification. It means very different things to people.

[@AlbertLloydy]

Could the Japanese model on how they maintained their industrial capacity applicable to Germany as well?

[@ASDeckard]

Japans industrialization has been in heavy decline, dropping below 20% recently. They have fallen so far down the value add chain that there is not a single state in the USA that does not have a more productive workforce. You can pick up and move a Toyota plant from Japan, to literally any US state, and it would make more money from the same inputs. ....That very well may be why *a full two thirds* of Japans automotive manufacturing has shut down in the last four years.

[@brianbrino4310]

To me the Germans always find a way to overcome their problems!

[@moonglow6639]

It's tough when the government is corrupt though.

[@roemsen81]

@@moonglow6639 Especially when all they ever do is talk, promise, talk, promise to do better, talk, promise again, but never deliver. And when they are out of politics, they still make nice money with a buddy job. ggwp. good night.

[@TheMrCougarful]

Hmm. Not convinced. Let's see how readily the Germans tilt away from automobiles and into robotics. I can imagine them making the best humanoid autosoldiers in the market.

[@pohkeee]

Exactly where I would surmise they’d laser focus their engineering skills now…to prepare for what is an already baked in and obvious need. Only ingenuity can overcome demographics..but it certainly can!

[@jkmarshall3553]

How about the best humanoid hooters girls?

[@bhaerava]

And they will call them Adi 2

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

What part of "they don't have the demographics to keep staffing their own heavy industry at its current levels" did you not understand? It doesn't matter what they build, they can't keep making as much of it in Germany.

[@Art-is-craft]

So how are these robots going to buy products and services?

[@edwardneilsen2139]

Thanks Peter I look forward to my daily dose of hope and happiness and happy puppy eyes. I think I want to go watch cat videos.

[@MrPosterino]

The reality of life

[@SimpleTruth1309]

Cat videos are amusing, but pimple popping & blackhead removal videos are absolutely mesmerizing. Agree ??

[@manwiththeredface7821]

1. And BYD from China is already here to fill the vacuum in the region, opening factories. The Chinese are facing population collapse at home but it's not them who will work in the European factories. 2. If the Poles play their cards right and manage to transition from buying military equipment (including vehicles) from S-Korea to manufacturing their own ones (that's their plan) they could also take advantage of the vacuum the Germans are about to leave.

[@arsic094]

Poles are not in better shape than Germany is, demographically speaking.

[@joshbentley2307]

Polands population is also decreasing and face the same energy issues as Germany for manufacturing. Although Poland does have a surprisingly good tech centre and the Ukrainians have massively helped there demographics. Poland will do ok but won’t be able to replace Germany. If the USA stops protecting the world’s oceans (which is definitely not a given) our best bet is to start working closer with Africa, who have a rapidly growing population for us to export to and lots of untapped resource potential. Only issue is that investing in Africa is a nightmare due to constant wars and instability.

[@strigoiu13]

there is no BYD factory, just marketing and propaganda for now. and certainly i do not see any BYD car in massive numbers on any street. in fact, in Romania I did not saw any BYD car so far! so I wonder if they tweak their numbers or the big buyer of byd cars is the chinese local and national government!

[@matthewgaudet8001]

@@joshbentley2307 the poles have a gas pipeline from norway to help their energy issues and they also want nuclear enegry unlike germany. the poles do not have the woke and green sickness going thru western europe .but they are next to the russians which can effect them in the future. the poles have also refused to allow the mass immigration into their country so they will remain culturaly the same something germany and britain hasnt done right.

[@joshbentley2307]

@@matthewgaudet8001 Norway has no where near the amount of fossil fuels Russia has and its far more expensive (Germany is also buying energy from Norway). Nuclear energy is incredibly expensive (more so than all fossil fuels or renewable energy) and they usually take decades to build. Without Russia Europe will struggle to have competitive manufacturing in the global market. Poland doesn’t even have the highly skilled people needed in the manufacturing that Germany specialises in. Poland faces even more issues than Germany has when it comes to exporting manufactured goods. Poland should focus on its tech and investment’s into new technologies.

[@dougpage2730]

I believe the German economy can withstand the shakeup much better than Peter is predicting. The demographic shift is not happening in a vacuum. Germany's major competitors are also experiencing demographic changes. The challenges relative to Germany's competitors will determine success in the future.

[@dunichtich100]

Germans won't run out of highly skilled labour - they already maximize the output of the few new upcoming experts by laveraging automation and immense ammounts of Software.

[@MrReachashish]

If you are living in Germany , I pity your fantasy land.

[@kerim.s8801]

Sure that's why the government is replacing us with other "skilled" workers aka braindead refugees where 50% are not working and too many can't speak the language. We are getting replaced.

[@richardthomas5362]

Germans can't retire. Who will pay the welfare benefits to all the immigrants there?

[@Ptolemy336VV]

The day Zeihan says something positive about anything other than USA is thw day aliens will visit you and play a casual chessgame

[@Art-is-craft]

What is there positive to say about a European demographic collapse?

[@Ptolemy336VV]

@@Art-is-craft and the rest of the world isnt? I can make a far worse case for China, Russia and many other nations

[@ssssaa2]

Argentina and Turkey he says will become more influential and successful.

[@petergraham9703]

France, Mexico, Turkey, Colombia, Argentina…? Do you watch his videos?

[@Ptolemy336VV]

@@ssssaa2 because these have still very young populations. But when the rest of the nations will be through this issue, Turkey will start to face it. Because Turkeys population grew very rapidly but birthrates declining fast. So it will be in the exact same boat, but 1-2-3 decades later. And a major difference is, the Germans or French ageing people have great pensions and a lot of money to deal with this issue that theyre facing now. Whereas the average Turkish citizen does not with strongly increasing economic woes and a devaluating Lira. Not now and not in 2 decades

[@OG-Jakey]

Man, I do not want to see German engineering/manufacturing going away. There's just no replacement.

[@DellDuckfan313]

It won't. Biden and Trump can be protectionist all they want, the thing with extreme high-precision manufacturing is that it makes no economic sense to build an alternative overseas because the application is so niche. Expect American investors to step in and provide German manufacturers with American capital and labor. They can't afford to lose it.

[@ivancho5854]

They will emigrate as much of their companies and people to the USA where inputs are all cheaper.

[@Ea-pb2tu]

@@DellDuckfan313there is more then enough capital within Europe. If I recall correctly there is more capital owned by private European institutions then American ones, a legacy from when Europeans owned the world. The problem is that the returns aren’t as good in Europe as in the U.S., so Europeans buy American securities (among others) with their capital instead of European securities. This is why Americas stock market has a valuation that’s so much higher then Europes.

[@taylorc2542]

If the indigenous population is forced to convert I'd imagine many will come over here.

[@Ragis]

I remember years ago, I was talking to a relative who is a scholar on Japan. I mentioned Japan was ageing out and failing economically. He told me what I see now for Germany: "Japan's economy is fine, it's just outside of Japan".

[@tabkheyal7703]

I like your video just because of the places where you film it.

[@tldw8354]

Dann werden wir uns eben durch die Herausforderungen einfach neu erfinden müssen. Wäre nicht das erste Mal. 😊

[@miri-dz9oy]

Dachte ich mir auch!😊💗

[@KoppdichtBier]

Living in Germany, I worry about the Post in Germany. And the Bahn. SCNR :-)

[@FilipeBrasAlmeida]

Problems with Zeihan's consistent misreading of European continental politics: 1. Wholesale disregard for just how engrained the EU is in every European's daily life, from the roads, their workplaces, their schools, their hospitals, and their leisure; 2. Germany will still be the core, with plenty of Germans left, of the continent that still makes everything everyone wants to own, for the foreseeable future; 3. Germany won't just somehow magically fail.

[@mindguru22]

He gets paid for talking and not for logical farsights. These are superheroes of Social Media.

[@0Turbox]

It's not magical, it's driven by inside and outside players. Every month, the country gets flooded by 30.000 uneducated, Muslim men. Our welfare system will soon break down by this pressure, and we have far too many financially independent people, who can live wherever they want. In 7 years we had 8590 rapes and sexual harassment from immigrants on woman, because of a lack of them. We Germans became soft, focused of being good at our jobs, you think soft people can stand for long such a growing criminality? Not only that, they even pay it with their taxes.

[@FilipeBrasAlmeida]

@@mindguru22 He's certainly interesting, just consistently and disproportionately uninformed on the EU.

[@LaFonteCheVi]

1.) That makes things even worse. The EU is an antiquated, naive, and unrealistic ideal that was only possible under US hegemony. Europeans have never played nice and they never will. The EU is a slow moving beurocracy that will collapse in the face of nationalistic rise and conflicting interests. Cramming together a bunch of different and unique countries with competing interests only made sense in an artificial world created by the US. As difficulties arise, more and mover divergences in needs will occur. The EU cannot address the needs of every single member. It is nothing more than a pseudo Franco-German empire guided by US blessings. And the US doesn't really care about it any more. It cares about Asia and S. America. 2.) Germany isn't competitive. It has been slowly pushed out by the US, Japan, China. S. Korea, Vietnam, etc. for years And it gets worse year over year. Suffers from a "middle of the map" problem. It is completely dependent on everyone around it, and the only way it can thrive is by dominating it's neighbors like it has through the EU. But that is coming to an end as well. 3.) It isn't magic. It is demographics, economics, and social problems. Germany has spend decades digging it's grave. Same with many other European countries.

[@jonnyd9351]

Lmao so you listed 3 points, with the last 2 just being 'Germany won't fail'?

[@indianajim]

Far less snow there.

[@user-xd1xf9rp5p]

Very interesting how he gets things wrong so thoroughly.

[@RD-jc2eu]

The thoroughness of your rebuttal is breathtaking. How meticulous in detail and rigorous in its analysis. Truly impressive! (P.S. Don't give up your day job.)

[@Marc-nc9yv]

I’ve read all the books and follow closely, you have said Germany has 3 yrs and just now said a decade, so what real time frame and how bad will it be? No more Porsche or BMW?

[@fly463]

It won't be a collapse or anything. They will most likely lose some of the market & manufacturing base like the Japanese.

[@paulnscheidt]

Don't worry. Those nice German cars will be built in Mexico or US.

[@antonstoeckl3689]

As a German living in Canada, unfortunately I have to agree with you. Our downfall started when a new coalition government between the Green Party, the Socialist- and the Liberal party was formed. In this coalition government, the Green Party is the driving force for a Green ,Socialist & Liberal left wing agenda of saving the planet. . This agenda makes it extremely difficult for our sophisticated industrial base to sustain an prosper.. The start of the German de industrialization was made from BASF to relocate their production factory with 39 000 people employed to China.

[@carlc.4714]

As a German living in Germany I do have my own interpretation: I would count the introduction of the anti baby pill as the first downfall we encountered. Around 2011 (Fukushima) and the mass invasion of 2015 combined with the highly questionable actions of our cancelor Mutti was the second one. She also layed the foundation to turn Germany into a DDR 2 (GDR 2). The drama is now just accelerating, with the Green Khmer in power. We might call it the third downfall, if you like? And I am still shocked how many sleep sheep there are. Ignoring the destruction of our former wealth or even cheering. But some seem to long for a possible future without electricity, work or food. Time will tell if we were too pessimistic, just realistic or - God forbid - still too optimistic. 😬

[@antonstoeckl3689]

@@carlc.4714 I agree with you 100 %. The demographic problems we have are all over our Western society including Russia which is shrinking by about 1 000 people a day. The mass immigration of unqualified people from incompatible culture background will NOT solve the problems we face to keep our current standard of living.

[@n3clar]

Germania will never fail! Europe as one!

[@akarna69]

They have already failed by opening their borders. 90% of the people they let in, have no desire to work, which puts a massive burden on an already overstretched welfare system. Meanwhile Grandmas who worked 50 years can't pay rent with their pension and have to collect bottles.

[@MenschGebliebenerUnmensch]

what? 😂

[@Cyon2012]

You really embrace the word optimism. He didn't even count the worst government we ever had since WW2 into the equation. So yeah, I can see this totally work out.

[@HadrianTAZ]

Come on Peter, I can sense a lot ad anti-europeanism in your thoughts. Germany, unlike other countries, like you just said, also has many many advantages to slowly be a le to recover. A few examples would be: a) an excelent infrastructure, from autobahns to ports, trains, and so on.. b) the know how c) the culture and their people d) they have the EU, which I wouldn't shake it off as being "irelevant". When it comes to economics and living standards, they have always been at the top. They will help Germany, like you said, so many countries are tied to them. e) hopefully we will see some regulations regarding idiotic monopolistic companies such as Facebook and all the rest

[@Alsacien]

It would be so interesting to see what would result from the unification of France and Germany and possibly the rest of the countries that were part of the Carolingian empire. They could probably become a powerhouse if they combined their strengths. French nuclear energy, French nuclear weapons, German industrial know-how and capabilities, French agricultural products, German financial strength, etc...

[@paulnscheidt]

There is that one problem regarding lack of raw materials. Making friends with the Russians was supposed to fix that? How about shortage of skilled labour? I see companies begging to fill apprenticeship positions. I see no easy fixes here other than moving out.

[@HadrianTAZ]

@@paulnscheidt you always forget that German's debt to GDP is at 60%. One swoop and they can fix it all. They should adopt the UK strategy of hirings through agencies and make career progression and salary increases easier to obtain, like in the UK. And that will fix the problem, as, unlike the UK, Germany doesn't have a housing crisis, or not really to the same extent, and so one can easily be able to make a great living in Germany, but they need to be paid well and to advance in their career

[@MichalToporcer]

Here as a millenial from Europe, having children is becoming a flex. I see a big system-wide shift into having much more babies soon (5-10 years?).

[@MrToradragon]

That will happen only if our governments will do something about current pension systems and other social policies, perhaps construction regulations and so on as those are currently the greatest reason why people in Europe had stopped having children.

[@landontesar3070]

Eurozone as a trading block has not been a primary enabler of German success?

[@roemsen81]

Not really. The "success" came back when wages and workers were put under pressure to accept any work in the early 2000s. Or to move halfway across the country for a standard job. Ironically, it was the SPD, which was supposed to be a pro-labor party. But that too has since become history... Shame.

[@forklaundry]

Uplifting as ever. Thanks Tony

[@decemvre]

The 1 thing you understand wrong about the EU is that EU funds (the largest expense of the EU budget) were never meant to be paid forever. Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia become net contributors to the EU budget starting 2027 and Romania and Bulgaria do so in 2030. After that all of these countries plus France and Scandinavia will pay for Moldova and Ukraine and the westen Balkans which are small countries. So "who pays for the EU" is less of an issues than you think it is.

[@mattmobile7882]

yeah well, this is so far all theory. Lets wait how the people/voters of said countries will feel about contributing themselves to the eu once we get there.

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

Many of the other EU countries also have bad demographics, though, so they're gonna run into the same problems as Germany at some point soon-ish.

[@Art-is-craft]

None of that will counter the collapse in European market activity.

[@decemvre]

@@Art-is-craft look up north Africa demography and Central Asia demography in addition to Turkey. That's Europe's new China

[@Art-is-craft]

@@decemvre That makes no sense. German supply and demand cannot be outsourced or immigrated.

[@sebaestschn1]

Good questions, but why should "the German model" collapse, whatever you mean with model. The second thing it is not just Germany... the whole Central Europe is pretty connected and has a significant knowledge in anything you wish to produce 😊 I do not know when you have visited this part of the world, but nowadays, the mood is not that bad... a lot of progress is ongoing ... in particular rethinking stuff, moving on into new areas, empowering efficiencies etc. This is the place where the Dollar, the Capitalism and whatsoever have been invented and the educational level is VERY high. An integration of Ukraine will boost this region... think about a progressive Poland that will also add a lot to the German economy. The spillover effects are visible. A loosing Russia will keep the gates open to eg China and to resources. The US protectionism just triggers more investments exactly in this region, including the military complex. In other words, you are speaking still about a powerhouse that has tremendous reserves to compete. Moreover, when talking to Asians or Africans, all of them prefer a cooperation with Europeans over Americans. I do not see a failing Germany in future, but an even stronger Central Europe taking over the leadership. Speaking about the seniors: The pension system keeps their consumption power very high... what means more stable production lines in an ageing society. The lack of labor force is being balanced with automation and efficiency. Btw, the pensions are funded by the pension funds, not by taxes.

[@komuharikomushisi6761]

stopped clock is right twice a day. this is one of those times. interesting reasoning for Germany not getting cheap energy any more :)

[@AndersonPEM]

Zeiss makes the high precision lenses for lithography machines manufactured by the Dutch and used in Hong Kong to make the high tech ARM chip you're using on your phone right now. Only zeiss has the know kow to make it.

[@TheVeritas2100]

ZEISS made the best OPTICS during the WWII, but still lost the WAR ! :-(

[@Kartoffelsuppe_m_Wursteinlage]

Zeihan should think about Germany as a concept. We have the best professional training system in the world. Even if you are a carpenter or plumber, you will attend a vocational school for three years and work as an assistant. Universities are free, we have excellent engineering colleges. That is the basis of German success. Germany never had great natural resources or energy. By the way. Energy prices have returned to normal. The third infrastructure is far better than America's, we have public transport and a Barrow network with train connections, our ports are competitive. German companies are currently investing a lot of money in research and development. None of these points you mentioned.

[@marioarguello6989]

So you are a Happy Slave?

[@marlenemortler3620]

Our country is completely fucked

[@Garcwyn]

A country that has survived and thrived after what has gone through and you dismiss it with a couple of farts? I’d like to see the USA going through half of the german ordeal and see what comes at the end of it. Don’t worry and sleep tight, Germany will do just fine. You see, from all things you are taking into account to “predict” the future you are missing culture. I can understand why you do so but nonetheless this is probably the single most important factor in the outlook of any country. This is why for example China didn’t “go away” 50-60 years ago (when they absolutely should have done so according to your logic) and not only that they raised from nothing to become a global superpower. I’m not concerned about Germany at all. I’m worry about countries without soul

[@Exodius3]

What a great comment. Germans will find a way, no matter what

[@lorenzozinna4700]

Lmao there are Germans and "Germans", and the latter will become the majority if things don't change. The nation is dead

[@dejanzatezalo3809]

German economic model did not failad, it has been destroyed deliberatly from outside.

[@HansBerger-m3d]

wars nicht eher ein "dolchstoss"? im felde unbesiegt und so?

[@ГалинаФетисова-ю4м]

Exactly, and it was USA who did it :D

[@floodgates182]

​@@HansBerger-m3dWell, certainly the politicians have been utterly traitorous.

[@RuuyG]

Absolute non-sense. We Germans are the ones who chose to be workaholic incels who don't make children.

[@HansBerger-m3d]

@@floodgates182 Trump and Putin.

[@winnie796]

Thank you

[@CrystalCanyon100]

How do you get your information. You seem so diverse in knowledge. Also nice sunglasses

[@AirB-101]

From Europe: Let's take this with a grain of salt shall we? Mr. Zeihan is doing a "3 body problem" short-term conclusion to a 100-years "maybe" scenario... My father's Grandpa and your father's Grandpa where also saying the same on October 29th, 1929 after the crash! My father (a Euro-communist at heart) sipping his expensive white wine on Friday evenings, was also explaining to me the same back on October 19th, 1987 (Black Monday)... You see, Liberalism is about efficiancies found in the last expected place. Then again, call me an optimist...

[@Chaezaa]

German here. In regards to retirement you still need to pay taxes on your pension but yes, the German welfare model is being questioned more and more these days.

[@asldfjkalsdfjasdf]

Paying taxes on the pension you get from the state is little more than a circle jerk.

[@gagamba9198]

True. But does one's monthly pension income equal one's former wage? No. A person who earns 5,000€ per month and contributed to the pension scheme for 40 years receives 1,523€ per month, which is OK for a person who owns his/her own home. Even better if it's a retired couple each collecting a good pension. But about 53.5% of the population rents. Does rent disappear when one reaches a magical rent-ending age? No. I reckon the income tax one pays on 1,523€ per month is far less than one pays on 5,000€. And let's not forget that the older people tend to consume healthcare and other state services at higher rates than others.

[@Chaezaa]

@@gagamba9198Good luck finding someone who makes 5000 per month. Maybe in West Germany but very rare in the East. I have 2 relatives who worked their entire life and are doing fine with their pension and they don't own their home. Just be realistic with what you can afford. I didn't mean to say that the tax on pension is saving the day. I know that it's just a fraction of the cost. The newer generation won't even get a real pension anymore and will end up with basic security (welfare).

[@andrezcabara2774]

@@gagamba9198 Did you pay that much into the system to deserve getting as much paid out? If you've earned 5000/month, then you could have personally invested more into your retirement. The purpose of retirement is not necessarily to keep your high standard of living.

[@concreteflies3457]

I worry about Bullshit in a Post- Zeihan World. He is the Jordan Peterson of economics. And Jordan Peterson is the Nico Avocado of Psychology.

[@kiliannietzsche170]

I worry about our government don't listening to advisors like you. Greetings to Robert Habeck

[@geralt7144]

You have to pay taxes on your pension. No joke.

[@quentinking4351]

"Last one out, hit the lights."

[@flore2093]

Deutschland wird niemals untergehen.

[@ALFarrell-kv6ok]

Germany will never stay down for long. That highly-educated, skilled, and diligent population will adapt and creatively roar back to strength in no time. The foundations are already there.

[@Sttennie]

More conceited, complicated and lazy... I have no hope left.

[@gotnoname3956]

⁠@@SttennieAnd still one of the highest productivities. Also not the first prediction for a downfall in Germany…

[@riccardodececco4404]

that is exactly why this population is currently replaced.....

[@ALFarrell-kv6ok]

@@riccardodececco4404 Conspiracy theory. Immigration makes countries stronger, not weaker. Look at America. And the native populations aren't having enough children to sustain the economy and pensions across the West.

[@riccardodececco4404]

@@ALFarrell-kv6ok no, it doesn´t. It only creates chaos, crime and misery. As we can wittness every day. And total societal and civilisational collapse.... you cannot import the civilisational losers and hope that something constructive and beautiful will come out of it. If you import Calcutta you will not help Calcutta, but become Calcutta...

[@taand4725]

I always take American people with neon pink shades serious, especially when it comes to European economics

[@Eli-q3x1s]

Peter forgot to mention a big part of Netherland's trillion dollar import-export business is German goods being exported and inputs being imported via Dutch ports.

[@parmanduke]

Europe will be fine. Man this dude the sky is always falling.

[@mashokaise6881]

Thanks Peter, but no, maybe Germany will go from #3 to #4 in the world, but not much more. Other countries will provide the labor, and Germany will provide the brains.

[@ezyryder11]

Germany has long been #4, behind US, China, and Japan.

[@0Turbox]

Wishful thinking.

[@CactusGirl-x7f]

Peter is right. No one wants to provide labor to Germany.

[@paulnscheidt]

Unless the "brains" decide to leave for greener pastures.

[@christianwespe5221]

May I teach you a german Expression? Todgesagte leben länger😝

[@rchgmer863]

Alright man look it's simple, why don't you just enjoy the beautiful places you go to. But yeah your ideas are useful and I understand, just sending a reminder.

[@BrandonJHunt]

Can you do a piece on the ASEAN countries please?